Impeachment number 2, Airbnb cancels DC reservations, and rebranding America

If you're waiting for your AI to turn into ROI

and wondering how long you have to wait,

maybe you need to do more than wait.

Any business can use AI.

IBM helps you use AI to change how you do business.

Let's create Smarter Business, IBM.

I get so many headaches every month.

It could be chronic migraine, 15 or more headache days a month, each lasting four hours or more.

Botox, onobotulinum toxin A, prevents headaches in adults with chronic migraine.

It's not for those who have 14 or fewer headache days a month.

Prescription Botox is injected by your doctor.

Effects of Botox may spread hours to weeks after injection, causing serious symptoms.

Alert your doctor right away, as difficulty swallowing, speaking, breathing, eye problems, or muscle weakness can be signs of a life-threatening condition.

Patients with these conditions before injection are at highest risk.

Side effects may include allergic reactions, neck, and injection site pain, fatigue, and headache.

Allergic reactions can include rash, welts, asthma symptoms, and dizziness.

Don't receive Botox if there's a skin infection.

Tell your doctor your medical history, muscle or nerve conditions, including ALS Lou Gehrig's disease, myasthenia gravis, or Lambert Eaton syndrome, and medications, including botulinum toxins, as these may increase the risk of serious side effects.

Why wait?

Ask your doctor.

Visit BotoxchronicMigraine.com or call 1-800-44-BOTOX to learn more.

Hi, everyone.

This is Pivot from New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network.

I'm Kara Swisher.

And I'm Scott Galloway.

Scott, you're so calm.

Hungover.

Oh, okay.

What did you have?

A second impeachment party or what?

Something like that.

And I'm running a little slow today.

Little slow.

You're going to have to carry this, Kara.

It's going to be like every other show.

Oh, don't tell me that.

So, Scott, may I say that you got the COVID vaccine?

Am I allowed to do that?

Probably not.

But let's just say educators were put on the list in New York.

And I think vaccines are an absolutely wonderful thing.

And I think it's humanity and science and truth coming together.

So I think it's absolutely wonderful.

I'm only asking you because I think everyone should get it.

And I think educators and everyone should talk about how good it is to get it and how helpful it is.

Tell me about the process because most of us have not gotten it yet.

It's pretty easy.

You go on to the website, you fill out a survey.

And in this instance, there was some confusion because we weren't sure professors were going to be included in the category of educators.

But once, but then it came out, I guess on Monday, I guess it's the union that's very strong here or they got the K through 12.

And then someone in the health department made the observation that professors, generally speaking, are much older and typically speak sometimes in front of hundreds of super spreaders, not 10 or 28-year-olds.

So that they were actually more vulnerable.

I got a note from the chief operating officer at Stern saying profs are now included.

I immediately went to the website, filled out the survey, got a QR code, went to this makeshift school in Bushwick.

Never been to Bushwick before.

I feel much younger and much hipper.

I'm going to grow up here to get a nose ring.

It's got in Bushwick.

Got some ink, got some ink, had a Paps.

And it was just, look, I thought it was inspiring.

And

it was, I'm just very, I'm grateful that there are so many smart people all pursuing pursuing the truth all pursuing

how to how to better humanity it felt very apolitical which was nice yeah and you know I got to be honest here I feel

I feel liberated I feel a little bit guilty I feel like I have a little bit of survivor guilt because I feel as if I'm healthy but unfortunately it's a process of vaccinating people and educators are on the list I'm coming up soon I'm coming up soon on the list and what I would tell everybody is I would have never known this but I have been all over this and called my in-laws and said you need to get vaccinated right away.

And they said, oh, where we're going to.

And I'm like, no, no, no, go on the website right now and schedule an appointment.

Right.

And

anyways, I do,

I don't think I felt this good and this optimistic in a long, long time.

And I think that this represents our best of humanity.

I think a lot of people deserve a lot of credit for this.

So look, it's the most kind of what I'll call the most wonderful thing I've participated in a long time.

And I'm very grateful to New York State, to the health department.

And it it was smooth.

It was a smooth process because we talked about how hard it is around testing unless you had some dollars.

You know what I mean?

Like the confusion.

It was an easy process for you.

Super easy.

Even though there's controversy in New York around some of the vaccination programs.

Well, I think rightfully so.

You know, I went through a bunch of guilt, like, should I wait?

But anyways, I think everyone has an obligation once that they are legally.

legally eligible to go get that goddamn vaccine as soon as possible.

That's a good thing.

And you take a second one, correct?

Yeah, I'm supposed to come back

February 8th, and I got the Moderna vaccine, which is a messenger RNA vaccine.

And also, I'd like to highlight that of the millions and millions of people that have received this thing, there's been a few very well-publicized examples of someone having a reaction.

But

I think the statistics show

it's much more dangerous.

Your ride there, your drive there is much more dangerous.

So how do you feel afterwards?

How did you feel?

Did you feel tired?

I felt wonderful, and I felt American, and I felt like I was protecting you.

I mean, physically, some people, did you know justice?

I know, I know.

I felt absolutely, I wouldn't have known if someone hadn't told me, I wouldn't have known.

And I was in a, they make you hang out in an auditorium.

It felt like eighth grade again.

Yeah.

And for 15 minutes, just to make sure you don't have some sort of a reaction.

And there were hundreds of people in there.

I saw absolutely no evidence of anything, not even people saying, I don't,

I don't, I, you know, so let me say my brother.

my brother got the second vaccine.

He's a doctor, so he got his early also.

And he's, he, he does a lot of COVID-related things.

And he said the second one made him feel a little achy,

but he feels fine.

You know what I mean?

Like really, that's interesting.

It was interesting.

He just mentioned it to me.

I'm excited.

DC is now at 65 plus, and it is going to move down to my age group next, which I'm very, I'm going to be first in line, first in line for this thing.

And

one of the things that's really important for people to remember is even though you get the vaccine, it does not make you Superman.

You also can still transmit the disease, apparently.

So you have to

be very careful.

You can transmit it to others.

So until we get enough people with this vaccine, we're not going to be out of the woods, but it does protect you in ways that you're not a burden on the healthcare system, which is also a real problem.

Anyway, Scott, I think that's great that you did that.

I know you felt, I know you didn't want me to bring it up, but I think you should.

I think we have to push people to get these vaccines, educators, and then then and we move on down the list in terms of people that really need it.

And you know, I'm happy you got it.

My son's going back to NYU.

Of course, they have a whole process to go back.

He's going back this week, but he had to get a test before.

He's going to get a test when he's there, right?

When he gets there, and he gets a weekly test, like on Thursdays.

And the minute he can get the vaccine, I want him to get it.

You know, he's younger and everything, but and I'm sure he's low down on the list.

But I have to say, I'm happy the professors there are getting it.

And I think professors, colleges have to start operating again in in an analog style stuff.

Well, not only that, but it brings out in yoga, there's this term off the mat.

And that is people start living healthier lives.

When they start doing yoga, they start thinking about the food they're eating, the way

they behave, the way they comport themselves,

the way they equip themselves emotionally.

And I find, you know, as soon as I got the vaccine, I was immediately like, you know, I can teach in person and I want to be helpful.

And it's not because, you know, I'm a good guy, although it is probably some virtue signaling, but I think people are excited to get back and be part of society and be helpful and contribute around sectors of the economy where others can because

they're not as fortunate as

some of us who've had access to it.

Anyways, look,

good for me,

good for educators, good for the planet.

I can't imagine other than Chipotle,

the Queen's Gambit, I can't imagine anything better in the world right now.

Oh, right.

Scott has been vaccinated.

Thank God.

All of us have a sigh of relief.

That's real.

Speaking of New York City.

Orgy.

Do you say Orgy?

No, no, don't.

Of course.

As usual, wear a mask.

Because I always wear a mask during an orgy.

I go as Judy Garth.

I go as Judy Garcia.

We had a moment of beautiful civic virtue.

I go as Judy Darling.

I'm going into Orgy, as usual.

I go as a witch.

I'm trying to get off this.

New York City is ending its business contracts with Donald Trump, including the Ice Wollman Ice Rink.

New York City is ending its business contracts with Donald Trump.

Your thoughts?

Lots of them.

There's a golf course.

There's a bunch of stuff that he runs for the city of New York.

You know, okay.

I don't know.

I'm not sure municipalities.

Yeah,

I'm a little bit worried that.

The Trump brand is getting dumped by a lot of businesses.

Yeah,

I don't think any of them are going to be.

They're sort of persona non grata in New York, especially there are.

It's totally fine.

You don't have Sackler Wing.

They took, why, why didn't you have a problem when they took Sackler off of things?

It's fine.

I'm not not sure i have a problem here i i just uh it's like to what end okay i i guess we do it all shut them out yeah

do states or do state i guess i guess the pga that was the one that really must have hurt is the pga has announced they're not going to do a golf tournament out of one of his courses hey he started in

i i the bottom line is i have no reaction that what are your thoughts i think it's exactly right like and everyone's like i can't believe it i'm like they did it to the sacklers they do it to lots of names that become problematic um and in this case uh fomenting an insurrection at the Capitol was problematic.

Oh, there's that.

It's problematic.

And so everyone's always trying to make these extra arguments like, oh, never done.

I'm like, it's done all the time, all the time.

Just like just, you know, when Josh Hawley was all whining like a big giant baby about losing his contract, lots of people lose their book contracts over everybody loses these things when they fall into disrepute.

And in this case, I think Trump really tops everyone in terms of what he did.

And if New York State, I mean, of course, it's virtue signaling, but so what?

They do it all the time.

And it's perfectly fine not to want to be affiliated with the Trump brand.

It's fine.

It's fine.

All right.

Boom.

Fine.

Okay.

Leads us to the big story.

Trump is the only president to be impeached twice.

Twice.

Twice.

Twice.

He's bigger, bigger and better.

There was a picture of him and Donald and Bill Clinton.

It said, here's three quarters of the impeachments in U.S.

history.

There's only been four.

The House held a hearing on Trump's second impeachment for inciting last week's violent insurrection in the Capitol.

Several House Republicans, including third ranking member Liz Cheney, daughter daughter of Dick Cheney, but she's a representative, voted to impeach the president, although many have received threats against their families for doing so.

And those who wanted to didn't do it because they were getting threats.

Apparently, there's quite a few of those.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has told Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, they're going to switch their jobs soon, that he will not convene the Senate until next week.

If you haven't listened yet, go back and listen to Tuesday's pivot episode with historian and expert on coups, Ruth Benjiat.

So

what do we think about all this?

This is like another day at the races with this guy.

Well, I watched some of the hearings, and the one statement that really struck me was

one of the representatives stood up and said, you know, this rotunda or this hall is now a crime scene.

Yeah.

Yeah.

And it's just, it's just, I think it's almost incalculable the amount of damage that's been done abroad.

People don't appreciate just how powerful our brand is.

You know, when you're traveling, people are less likely, quite frankly, to fuck with you when you're American because we're seen as having our act together and we're seen as having our, you know, our memory is long as our reach is far.

Companies are very inclined to do work.

Parents are very inclined to let their kids try and start their careers or get an education here.

Brand USA is.

Oh, my gosh.

They're much less likely to aid and abet our enemies for fear that

we are not only...

You know, we're not only our...

I generally think our brand around the world is that people see us as arrogant, they see us as somewhat

indulgent, but that our heart's in the right place.

We get it wrong all the time, but our heart's in the right place.

And I think we've lost a lot of that.

What do we say at the next time there's a Tiananmen Square?

What do we say to we used to weigh in and have an impact and influence?

People, I think dictators and strongmen around the world used to think twice because they knew that America would weigh in and potentially think about economic sanctions, think about a military response.

And now it's sort of like, well, it's hard to know what they're going to do.

I think hopefully Biden restores some of that confidence.

But I just, it's sort of

with Trump, one of the things, and then I'll turn it back to you because I realize I'm bobbering on, but typically with Trump, it's you make, he does something outrageous that's quite frankly not that meaningful.

It's just a stupid thing, reflects poorly on him, reflects poorly on the country, reflects poorly on his party.

And then

it starts, it's perishable.

It loses its viscosity because he does something else stupid.

This is the opposite.

This is going to fester

like a giant open wound.

And I also believe, I also believe we're going to find out some very very uncomfortable things about who knew about this who hated it yeah and we're going to be shocked how high up they go and the question is do we have capacity for shock with this guy that's what he does he constantly shocks like you just said it and this brand i think that the investigation is going to show very deep ties in terms of you know this one this representative uh mickey mickey sherr something like that she's she's uh she's been in the military and she's uh she was a federal prosecutor and she and other 30 others are saying why were there tours of the capitol the day before giant groups of people that someone let in to look around um so that there was possibly some linkage between the people who were you know linking the people that were in the capitol to uh what the day before and there's all kinds of stuff there is clearly something was going on here

something's wrong i've been investigating

i want to i'm not going to be like a q anon person and go oh well there's got to be some i i'm really eager to see the investigations in terms of the proof.

But my point is, we get mildly angry at things around the Trump administration.

That anger dies down and moves on to new

anger.

This is just going to grow.

This is so upsetting.

It's difficult to process what has actually happened here.

And then I think it's the weight and the gravity of what's actually, because I think everyone's in a state of shock and just trying to process it.

I just think we're going to become more and more pissed off.

And without him in power, I think people are going to start to loosen up their lips in terms of what happened and what occurred and what he was doing.

And I think that's what's going to be, it's going to be the collective,

oh, actually what happened is, oh, yeah.

And so it's an interesting thing.

One of the things that I found interesting is they don't, some people close to Trump wanted to get him on Gab and some other platforms, and little Jared did not.

And I think that actually, I think he's, he's really quite astonishingly dumb in terms of how he's handled himself.

But that was a good move because you cannot get right.

Can you imagine right now Trump on Twitter during this whole period?

I mean, he either convicts himself or make it worse or something.

I am so pleased he is.

It's actually, and that's actually smart for him to keep his mouth shut.

Well, this is

I

thought the best summary of kind of social media around this, and I've been thinking a lot about Twitter, is that effectively

tyranny is the temporary alliance between the elite and a mob.

And that's what this was.

This was an alliance not only between

the elite and that is President Trump, but quite frankly, it's been a slow burning exercise in fascism with the partnering of the elite, specifically some of the richest people in the world, some of the most powerful people in the world, some of the wealthiest people in America, some of the people who have been most blessed, and a mom.

And so, in my opinion, and I don't say this lightly, Twitter and Facebook are fascism with a health plan and a capitalist.

We're going to get to them.

We're going to get to them in a second, but I want to understand what you think right now from a brand America.

How does Biden carry this over?

Continue the investigations or move on.

There's the whole move on crowd that you saw last night.

I got to be honest, I've never been, and I'm, you know, I wasn't a big fan of how Biden handled himself through the election.

I was.

I love the basement.

Well done.

And it ended up being the right strategy.

Exactly.

But I think

this has been a masterclass since his election because he can say, let's move on.

And I think that's smart.

He wants to position himself as bipartisan, but at the same time,

at the same time, he's going to look at the FBI and he's going to do exactly what they should do.

If you want to talk about repair, it comes down to one word, accountability.

And

I think, you know, where we're going to find a lot about the FBI, under their

prosecutorial license and leverage, gets people speaking really fast.

And it goes something like this.

They sit down with the security guard who supposedly was communicating with the mob or whatever it is, and they say, you can go to jail for six months or 20 years.

You got 30 minutes to figure out what you're going to tell us.

So

I think we're going to find, I think Biden is handling this this from his standpoint at least publicly very well.

He wants to come across as someone who's a healer and can reach across the aisle and this is publicly he'll because other people are gonna do his bidding.

Yeah, so Nancy Pelosi can be the Nancy Pelosi.

That's right.

He doesn't need to.

So I think, you know, but this is

this is gonna go on for a while.

We're gonna be reading articles.

We're gonna be in a state of shock and we're gonna find out more and more shocking things.

The onion is gonna stink more and more as we as we peel it back here.

What do you think?

I agree with you.

I think once they start to do investigations, that's gonna to be really.

And I think the anger of the Trump voters is, even though people say, oh, it's right there, they're right on the surface.

I suspect the more he gets a loser thing attached to him, the less, this is what happened to all the others, all the other strongmen.

Once they seem weak, it's a problem for them because their brand is strong.

And we'll see what he does afterwards.

I think he's going to try to do a lot of interviews.

I'm hoping to get one myself.

What do you think he does post?

What would be the smart thing to do post-inauguration?

What do you think the thing he's going going to do is?

Because it's not certainly not going to be the smart thing.

Well, here's the thing.

And we talked about this.

I'm obsessed with this Professor Carlo Cipola's matrix around, okay,

good for society.

He's from Berkeley and he passed away, but he has this, he wrote a book on stupid, and he has

this matrix where one axis is, you know, good for society, good for yourself.

And intelligent people do things that are good for themselves and good for society.

And that's kind of the fuel of capitalism.

And then there's the bandits, people who do do something that's good for themselves, but not good for society.

Big tech, our tech leaders.

And then there's the artists that do good things for society but can't figure out a way to make it prosperous for themselves.

Sort of the,

Professor Chipola calls it the helpless.

I would think of them as sort of artists.

And then there's the stupid, and that is people who who damage society with no demonstrable benefit to themselves.

And

these are the stupid.

And the reason the stupid are just so dangerous is it's impossible to predict their actions.

It's like trying to shoot a target where the movements are totally unpredictable and improbable.

And that's how I feel about this guy.

I just have absolutely no idea.

And I would have predicted that more Republicans would have voted in favor of impeachment.

So I've sort of given up trying to understand

the president.

I think this was on a risk-adjusted basis, an absolutely idiotic decision what he did here.

I just

think Ms.

Cheney will prove to be very smart in what she did.

Oh, she's she's she's a lot of people.

It was interesting.

It says people want to get rid of her from third.

It was three people.

It was Eddie Biggs, who's possibly compromised here and could face charges or could he's being investigated for his involvement with the mob.

The second one is Jim Jordan.

I don't know how, I haven't seen his name in that regard, but I have.

And then the third one, there's three people and two of them, I think, are being looked at for their involvement in the organization of this thing.

And so there's just three.

And then others like Dan Crenshaw, some others are defending her, right?

Who even if they voted against,

you know, against the impeachment, they are defending her.

And I'm like, she's going to get the corporate money.

She's going to get

conscience vote.

And they're all getting cut off.

That to me is the most interesting thing.

Walmart just decided to cut off everyone that voted against

for the election fraud stuff.

You know,

that they said that there was election fraud trying to stop the thing.

A hundred and some

representatives are not getting money from Walmart.

And the list for corporate giving is

they're all doing it.

And so it seems to me, and Ms.

Cheney, I do think, made a conscience vote, but she also made a financial vote.

Like this is, she is going to, she's betting on

institutionalism, I guess, that will return and mob rule will dissipate as it often does eventually.

And so I think she's going to benefit most here of all the people.

I was speaking to Roger McNami yesterday, and he read me back a quote.

And I don't know if it was the Secretary of Defense, but the longest serving soldier up until that point that worked in, I think, the cabinet or advised President Lincoln's head the day before his inauguration, anyone who's guilty of sedition should be tied to a cannon, shot out from.

shot from the from the Congress or the halls of the Congress and their fert, you know, used to be fertilized the hill.

This was sedition.

This was insurrection.

And I think Representative Cheney's decision is going to age really, really well.

Yeah.

I just think it's going to be hard to go back.

Remember that time you voted to impeach the guy who committed sedition?

Well, that was the right thing to do.

Yeah.

Yeah.

So I think that's the thing.

Yeah, I think once the investigation, I think they're being stupid to have done.

I would have abstained or something.

I just, it's really fast.

I think a lot of them were actually physically scared.

I do think there was a whole, there was a lot of reporting on that, that some of the representatives were physically scared of their, one of them who voted against it said he went back,

voted for, excuse me, the impeachment.

One of the opponents.

He went back to his constituency and they were like, See, we got him.

You know, he was a little scared to do the vote.

It sounded like well, but not only that, this is where we are as a nation.

A bunch of them voted by proxy because they were scared of going into the Capitol, right?

Physically,

the one who said you're a pussy if you didn't go.

And also, and also, they're scared of catching COVID as it now looks like this was a super spreader event.

Yeah,

so that's where we are.

That's where

that's where, arguably, if we're a free and safe society, this should represent that and right now it does not represent that

it's a place of danger of violence and infection yeah yeah that's the capital yeah dan crinch

saying you shouldn't vote by proxy and guess who was voting by proxy dan crinchell uh they just really need to they need to really i would not have done any voting before i knew exactly what happened you know what i mean and that's going to be interesting and i think that you're right there's going to be an investigation here that is going to show off some very terrifying things about insider uh involvement in this.

But we'll see.

I don't know.

Unlike QAnon people, I don't know.

And I'm looking forward to the investigation.

But it looks, the whole thing looks like a mob, hidden, a hidden, a hidden thing within the mob.

And you could see some of it.

And we're, we're going to, the reporting is going to, and the investigation is going to be very interesting.

And of course, if it turns out there was nothing, I will say that.

Anyway, let's go on a quick break.

When we come back, we'll talk more about different platforms responding to the alt-right and Trump and listener mail questions.

as a founder you're moving fast towards product market fit your next round or your first big enterprise deal but with ai accelerating how quickly startups build and ship security expectations are also coming in faster and those expectations are higher than ever getting security and compliance right can unlock growth or stall it if you wait too long vanta is a trust management platform that helps businesses automate security and compliance compliance across more than 35 frameworks like SOC2, ISO 27001, HIPAA, and more.

With deep integrations and automated workflows built for fast-moving teams, Vanta gets you audit ready fast and keeps you secure with continuous monitoring as your models, infrastructure, and customers evolve.

That's why fast-growing startups like Langchain, Ryder, and Cursor have all trusted Vanta to build a scalable compliance foundation from the start.

Go to Vanta.com slash Fox to save $1,000 today through the Vanta for Startups program and join over 10,000 ambitious companies already scaling with Vanta.

That's vanta.com slash box to save $1,000 for a limited time.

Support for Pivot comes from LinkedIn.

From talking about sports, discussing the latest movies, everyone is looking for a real connection to the people around them.

But it's not just person to person, it's the same connection that's needed in business.

And it can be the hardest part about B2B marketing, finding the right people, making the right connections.

But instead of spending hours and hours scavenging social media feeds, you can just tap LinkedIn ads to reach the right professionals.

According to LinkedIn, they have grown to a network of over 1 billion professionals, making it stand apart from other ad buys.

You can target your buyers by job title, industry, company role, seniority skills, and company revenue, giving you all the professionals you need to reach in one place.

So you can stop wasting budget on the wrong audience and start targeting the right professionals only on LinkedIn ads.

LinkedIn will even give you $100 credit on your next campaign so you can try it for yourself.

Just go to linkedin.com slash pivot pod.

That's linkedin.com slash pivot pod.

Terms and conditions apply.

Only on LinkedIn ads.

Okay, Scott, we're back.

Now you can take off on big tech.

YouTube is the latest platform to suspend Trump this week, although it's only for the next seven days.

YouTube said in a statement that Trump's most recent video violated its policy for inciting violence.

Oh, really, YouTube?

Finally.

The company is also removing comments from his videos indefinitely.

Airbnb is canceling all reservations made in the Capitol this week in an effort to keep the inauguration from pro-Trump rioters, and they probably will be rioters.

Snapchat also, I'm sorry for saying that in advance, but you seem to have acquitted yourself badly.

last time.

Snapchat also banned Trump for life.

Meanwhile, without access to parlor, Facebook, and Twitter, alt-right, Trump supporters are organizing on encrypted messaging platforms such as Signal and Telegram.

By the way, Jack Dorsey has defended his decision to ban Trump from Twitter, and Cheryl Sandberg has deflected blame for the coup from Facebook, and many people think she was inaccurate.

Scott, care to rant.

Go for it.

Well, yeah, as

Ms.

Sandberg.

I want to yell.

I need you to yell at first.

Yeah, I'm not going to yell.

As Ms.

Sandberg claims that, you know, pats herself on the back, saying that because of her transparency, it wasn't her platform.

No sooner does she say that than they are taking ads for military vests and basically combat wear right above content around the insurrection.

It's like, what you missing?

Planning to head back?

Are you part of the mob?

Well, buy this military vest.

I mean, that's, that is, for me, that sort of typified.

More than that, there was lots of proof that they organized on Facebook, too.

Of course, there is.

But the thing I'm uncomfortable with, and there's a lot to unpack here, is that when we have insurrection, when we have a potential coup,

the way we meet out justice in our society now is that kayak and caviar cancel his account.

That's how we

beg our innovators.

We beg our overlord.

That's the position we're in.

Also, quite frankly, I'm uncomfortable with the fact that AWS

can basically put companies out of business overnight.

I think Parliament.

Okay, go ahead.

I think Parla should have been put out of business, but I think think it should have been put out of business by the FBI and laws and criminal investigation, not by a web hosting company.

And that's, this is all, again,

further evidence that the real power in our society is no longer government.

It's no longer laws.

It's no longer moral authority.

It's, we hope that a tech company takes down

or refuses to let them order a lift.

And when AWS, I was thinking about the last time a media company was put out of business this fast.

And I was thinking with Peter Thiel when he funded the case and it put Gawker out of of business.

And is that what we want?

Is that when people are wrong that it's billionaires and tech companies putting out business?

Let me just say, there are, first of all,

the fact that Parliament made a big deal about AWS, there are six or seven other cloud services he could have used.

They just don't want to do business with them.

That is the issue.

They're going to shut up.

It's not like

he was saying antitrust against Amazon.

I'm like, hey, DodoBird, there's six or seven of these.

It's not a market that doesn't have competition.

You have Google,

you've got IBM, you've got Microsoft.

There's all kinds of people you can do business with.

They just don't want to do business with you.

And I don't think that AWS has to do business with

the breakthrough.

I know that we're waiting for them, but there's no, like, it's, you,

if you don't, if you have a store and you don't want to sell to someone, you're not, you don't have to.

And that why I agree, they have enormous power.

And so that's the disconnect here, but don't link that with the fact that businesses that don't want to be in the terrorism business don't have to be in the terrorism business.

And so they can make a decision.

Now, the problem is, if you go forward to that, if you go back in time, these are all the companies that facilitated all this, right?

They created, they gave people the tools to make this mess.

And now they're like, oh, wait a minute.

I didn't know they were doing this with it.

And so we have to separate the two.

One is the culpability before this all happened.

And the other is the decision not to.

But there is absolutely no way that AWS has to sell services to Parliament if it doesn't want to.

And they don't have to sell them a gay wedding cake.

We've already figured that, you know, we've already determined that.

You just don't like that they have this power.

Well, I just think it indicates something very unhealthy in our society.

I'm glad Parlor shut down.

I think it was the right, or they shut them down.

I think it was the right decision.

What I think is concerning is that a company can basically put another company out of business overnight by refusing to host them.

They had options to go elsewhere.

Nobody wanted them.

That is what they're doing.

So they've been shut out.

The other thing that struck me, to your point, is that if you own a legal cannabis business, you can't find anyone to bank with you.

So it makes sense that, okay, these guys now are having trouble.

But I am on, it just seems strange that basically the arbiters of power, the arbiters of justice have become a bunch of 30-somethings that run apps or run

web hosting companies.

I think it just reflects the concentration of power.

It all goes back to the same thing.

The biggest tax cut.

The biggest source of freedom, the greatest oxygenation of the marketplace would be to go through and absolutely bust up the concentration concentration of power here.

Except in this case, there isn't a con, like, why didn't Oracle pick these guys up that they're friends, the Trump people?

Oracle is like, no, thank you.

No,

as often, I'm learning.

My understanding was that basically with AWS pulling the plug on these guys, what you're saying is the entire community pulled the plug on them.

That there's no...

They're individually making their decisions, all of which is, I'm not doing business with that bunch of yin-yangs.

I mean,

Oracle is the example I use because Oracle is very close to the Trump administration, but they don't want anything to do with this.

Now, you would think that they would be like, oh, free speech, let's have them.

Nobody wants to be in business with a place that foments terrorism.

It is just that simple in this case.

And by the way, there is competition in this particular space.

Now,

you could talk about Facebook and Twitter, sort of the iron, the iron, you know, they're the only choices Trump has here.

And YouTube, the three of them, it's an iron triangle, the three of them.

That's three, three platforms where he could go that he can't go now.

Now, there's three, three, right?

That's a lot.

That's a lot of things.

And Snapchat is four.

Reddit is five.

You know what I mean?

Like, they all don't want to do business.

I think what we need to be looking at is what happened before.

Not that they're doing this now, because I think they're within their rights to cut off business from people.

But why did they suddenly decide now that Parlor was bad?

Parlor was bad before.

Right?

This was happening.

Why weren't they monitoring?

Now, a bigger question is something about Airbnb canceling reservations.

They have a history of this.

They did it in Charlottesville, and they're doing it now.

Again, well within their rights to do so, as far as I'm concerned.

I just,

you know, they don't.

It's really interesting.

It's actually when you think about it, and I'm, disclosure, I'm a shareholder, I'm a big fan of the company, but it's interesting how effective it might be, right?

To basically say, look, where are these people going to stay?

Well, let's just...

Let's just say for the time being, we're not going to have Airbnbs in the D.C.

metro area.

And it also reflects a different gestalt, a different approach to business.

And that is traditionally companies have said, well, we don't want to be arbiters of the truth.

And they slow roll it.

And they say, you know, as long as we can keep the register ringing, every narrative points to one place.

How do we ensure that we grow 22?

point seven percent this month, not 22.6.

And this is a different approach.

It's saying, no, we're actually going to look at, we're going to do what the business roundtable says we're supposed to do.

And that is the directors and the management team are fiduciaries for stakeholders, not just shareholders.

And one of those stakeholders is the government.

One of those stakeholders is our citizenry.

One of those stakeholders

is ensuring that we have a safe, you know, we have a, we don't have chaos.

And they said, okay, that we can play a role in that.

And so I think it was a good move.

And I think it's a leadership move.

The easy thing would have just been to kind of like ignore it and back away from it.

And he did it before.

He did it in Charlottesville.

That's what they did.

They did it before.

They've done it several times before, actually, which I think is very responsible.

I just feel like this is their business.

It's the same thing we're not mad at walmart for not giving money to the people who voted we're not going how dare they do that like they can decide what they want to do with their money i just i think well even charles schwab charles schwab all of them did that we're not on their case we're on the internet's case i want to be on the case of why did walmart fund these people before why did these internet companies allow this to go on when it was it was in plain sight what was happening right before like that's what i like now they're suddenly like converted and this is not it's not as if they weren't warned It's in this case.

Same thing with Walmart and the others giving money.

They have, they've seen ample opportunity of misbehavior by these representatives, and they still continue to fund them because it wasn't this bad.

And when it becomes this bad is when they cut and run.

I'm fine with them cutting and running, but I want to look at what happened before.

So I have one more question, Scott.

We've argued about encryption before and what the government should be allowed to ask companies to hand over.

How does this moment change this conversation that a lot of these groups are going on on those things?

I'm still in the protecting of them.

I'm in the Apple side of this.

And how should companies like Signal, which is an app that's also used by a lot of journalists, respond to this knowledge that they may be organizing on these platforms?

Yeah,

you and I do disagree.

I mean, for example, I believe they should be using facial recognition software to track people down.

But what I want is thoughtful judges

that make good decisions and that recognize the law and don't use these technologies in a wanton way that violates people's rights.

But I think they should.

I am uncomfortable with Apple or any other anyone else usurping the role of the government deciding what information gets

that our national security and our law enforcement have access to.

I think they have to have a good case for doing it.

They have to

agreed.

But they don't usually they just want in for fishing around.

No, you can't.

Well, it's like it's like before the Patriot Act, it was much harder to get to get warrants.

And I think that was probably the right way to go.

I think you have to be very thoughtful about when you are allowed to use these technologies.

But I do think they should be part of the arsenal.

I'm just uncomfortable.

I mean,

to your credit or to your point, I have found myself texting more because I think it's more secure.

And I do appreciate that security.

But I don't like corners of the web that are out of the reach of the greatest force and the least wrong entity or arbiter of when intervention or law enforcement is warranted.

And that's the U.S.

government and our courts.

So, again, we're just ceding more power.

It's a big tech.

They're the ones that kind of decide what is open for review and what isn't.

Well, it is.

I think there should be an onerous way to get at the information in terms of the courts.

Because, you know, every time, you know, whatever you think is what Edward Stone is dead clear, they will sneak around wherever they can, the government will, and they shouldn't be doing that.

And so, you know, you can have your opinion, but they were doing extrajudicial activities, our government.

And therefore, they should not be able to.

And so it'll be an interesting question.

One of the things, and then we're going going to get to a listener mail, was a lot of people are like, well, now these people are going to go underground.

I'm like, they were underground before.

Like, don't, they were underground.

What's happened is they came out in the light and they thrived.

Unlike most mold, they came out in the light and that was even that that amplified and weaponized them in a way that they never had.

And to take away their, this light that allows them to proliferate, I think is not a bad thing.

Like these groups, I don't mind them yelling at each other.

Who cares if they want to do that?

But actually fomenting sedition, take away their power to do that.

I'm perfectly fine with that, especially in the way they behave in the Capitol.

And one of the things I'm worried about is because in this fast news cycle, and maybe the news cycle will slow down with Biden, I think it probably will because Trump is one big like moving news or news generating entity, is that everyone can slow down and really take a look at what happened here in a way and not and

maybe once again be shocked by what happened.

That's my hope instead of us moving on this twitchy culture where we move on from like, oh, sedition.

Yeah, not this time.

This is going to get, I really do think that we're starting to process this and we're just coming to grips with the fact that, wow, this was not only ugly and frightening, it's going to get uglier and uglier when we find out what's going on here.

And back to this, Professor Chipola's matrix, the reason why the bandits, the people who leverage the stupid people for their own gains,

you know, the bandits are never going to run out of the stupids.

And so we have to hold both groups accountable.

And the people who are sort of

behind the scenes, either enabling, ignoring,

accomplices, whatever you call it, to sedition, for every one person that was in that mob, I think there are several that are complicit in this.

Yeah.

Either through misinformation.

or helping them coordinate, whatever it might be.

I think we need to literally run down every web and every link here.

Agreed.

And there's certain tells in society.

And one of the tells, if I ever see a CEO saying, we're all in this together, I know it's a CEO asking for a bailout.

And whenever I see an elected leader talking about our need to heal and reunite here, it's somebody.

It's somebody who's wallpaper overing their role here.

It's someone who looks back and says, oh, I played a role here, so now

it's time to heal and forgive everyone, including me.

Yeah, I think that's a tell.

As soon as I see someone standing up on the center floor, this is a time to heal.

Yeah, Kevin McCarthy.

That was Kevin McCarthy.

Okay, boss.

What did you do?

Kevin McCarthy.

What did you do?

100% when I was watching him, he had to throw Trump a little bit under the bus, this leg, perhaps.

I was like, oh, because a week ago, he was like

rabid, you know?

Like this, and I don't want to be like, oh, he found

what I hope we don't do is we focus, the other last thing, and then we'll get to this list of mirror question, is focus on like the stupid guy with the horns or the guy and the judge's son in

furs and stuff like that.

Like, oh, look at these goofballs.

Look at these, you know, duck dynasty mob.

No, there are, there is an insidious group of people hidden within that.

Um, and we have to do a where's Waldo on this one, like a deep, bright light where's Waldo.

And when I walk in, and my son, my 10-year-old son, immediately comes up and hugs me, I'm like, uh-oh, what's on fire?

Like, what did you destroy?

What has gone wrong here?

And that's the same here.

Whenever you hear this language about us needing to reunite, and this is no time to hold people, i.e., me, accountable.

Yeah.

Look, this is

we really, I think a big part of healing here is accountability.

And also, I think on the left, we are infected with this bullshit version of wokeness called both-sidedness.

There is no, there is no other side here.

Sedition, sedition and insurrection literally tear at the fabric of everything we think is right and wrong.

And people should be held accountable.

This is not a time for forgiveness and moving on and healing.

No, hard no.

Proctology exam for Andy Biggs and Paul Gosar, I feel.

You say that like it's a bad thing.

You love them, I bet.

You love them.

Vaccinated Scott.

Vaccinated Scott.

Well, you know, my prostate's so big.

I wish there was an off-switch.

Or Kara, is that the on-switch?

All right.

We're going to a listener.

Moving on.

Let's take a listener.

Oh, my God.

There's two references now.

Two references.

Orgies and...

Surrender, Dorothy.

Surrender.

Let's moving on.

Let's take a listener mail question.

You've got, you've got.

I can't believe I'm going to be a mailman.

You've got mail.

Hi, Kara and Scott.

This is Jodi in New York.

As I sit here watching rioters and domestic terrorists storm the Capitol, I would love your thoughts on whether it's possible to rebrand America.

Or after today and after the last four years of the Trump presidency, have we gone too far?

Looking forward to hearing what you think.

All right, we talked about this.

Yes, yes, I think it is.

Scott, how would you rebrand America?

I mean, I think Biden's starting to do that, of course.

Obviously, going to reach out to all kinds of officials.

I think there'll probably be a big, splashy, we're back kind of thing.

We're back, bigger, better, badder, whatever the, whatever.

We're not badder, we're less bad.

Bigger,

build better together, whatever, whatever.

It's a lot of Bs.

I think we have to really,

really have a PR initiative with the rest of the world to start with, like that we're here, back.

I think we have to, I think happy grandpa is a good thing.

And the focus on

a diverse group of people running the government.

I think that's important.

I think a persistent shunning of some of these Trump people is important, you know, that we don't, we're not going to let them return like a lot of people who started the Iraq war, people said they came back too fast on TV and stuff like that, that they should be shunned a little bit.

And some depends, everyone's different, obviously, but you can't, you know, it reminds me a little bit, you know, of sort of the Me Too thing.

Those guys have not come back.

You know, we're not bringing back Harvey Weinstein.

The idea that

all is forgiven, I think perhaps we have to be stronger on that.

And ultimately, look, the stock market is going crazy still.

The U.S.

stock market is still strong.

So obviously, it's not a risky investment for, you know, we had a sedition and we're still, the numbers are still high.

And we have to have a very strong, a continued strong

stance on China, I do think.

But although we've lost almost all of our credibility in terms of democracy, et cetera.

Well, you got to hope that this insurrection serves as a vaccine and not the first indication or symptom of a chronic illness.

And that is, I like to think that similar to a vaccine, we've seen this tyranny.

We've been given an impaired version of the tyranny virus just enough to alert our immunity system.

And that we're going to recognize that when unregulated companies with sociopathic leadership decide to ignore all evidence that they are ripping at the fabric of society, that that is not acceptable and they need to be held accountable.

That we're going to recognize that hate speech and leaders who pit us against each other, that this can lead to very, we're going to try and arrest the virus.

Our immunity system is going to stand on high alert.

So I'm hoping, I'm hoping that this serves as a kind of a vaccination for us, that we no longer take these things for granted.

Because here's the problem.

The incentives here are all fucked up.

If you think about really, it's the 1% of America, the shareholder class who control the government because money has just become such a dominant force in politics.

And they keep getting wealthier.

And quite frankly, they aren't the ones.

They have almost no risk of being separated from their children at the border.

They have almost no risk of being exposed to the virus because they have to head out with their diabetes medication and their Diet Cokes into their Ubers.

So if the incentives are such that,

and I hate to say this, but I believe the pandemic has been used as cloud cover for the shareholder class to explode their wealth.

And

unless people feel pain, I believe one of the reasons in addition to...

What do you do?

I mean, it is what it is, right?

The stock market.

Well,

you don't have stimulus where only 15% of the money reaches the people it's supposed to reach.

You don't have, you have, in my opinion, we need to do away with capital gains.

People need to feel pain.

If your wealth

is correlated to the number of infections, are you really going to end up with a full-throated response to the pandemic?

The 1% in this.

This is what Stephanie Ruhl talks about also.

The 1% are living their best lives.

So the most powerful people in the nation, are they really incented and motivated?

I'm not saying that they want the pandemic to rage on, but are we.

Because it's inconvenient to their vacations, although they've all gone on.

But go ahead.

But if this had been killing young white people and the NASDAQ had been cut in half, you would have seen a different response to this pandemic.

Instead, it's like, well, my stocks are up.

And so look, I think we, for example, I think we absolutely should do away.

Elon Musk has added the GDP of Hungary to his personal net worth since the pandemic broke out.

Trillionaires have added trillions of dollars.

The SP says companies are more profitable than they've ever been because they've used work from home as an opportunity and cloud cover to lay off people.

Well, you know what?

If we're borrowing $3 trillion against future generations, shouldn't we pay it back?

Shouldn't we, for example, do away with a capital gains tax deduction?

We are so quick to bail out companies and rich people because of these extraordinary events.

Well, we've had an extraordinary event, and it's called an absolute explosion and surge in the top 1%.

Well, so shouldn't we be thinking about policies and tax policy for them to pay it back?

Well, I think Biden is.

I think there is the tax break, rolling back the tax break, putting money in the hands of people, the $2,000 checks and in the right hands.

You know, I agree with you.

I think it's really quite amazing how rich the numbers you see, and the tech leaders are an example of this.

The amount of money they've gained in this pandemic is just.

It's extraordinary.

It's mind-blowing.

And at the same time, it's like, how did that happen?

And then you have to really hard about a lot of things.

And it's not because they were so skilled at their jobs.

You know what I mean?

In some cases, you're sort of like, okay, they made something really quite amazing and deserve the benefit, the financial benefit from it.

Look at what's happened here.

So let's just do the math.

Okay, so net compensation has declined only by 50 billion.

That takes into account increases in salaries because the people who have been really hit hard on a professional level weren't making that much money to begin with.

So we've lost $50 billion in wages.

We've put another trillion dollars of stimulus into people's hands.

So obviously more money.

And also consumers have saved $500 billion because they're no longer going to the Olive Garden or to Disney World.

So what does that mean?

A trillion and a half dollars in additional cabbage that American consumers, American public didn't have before, which means the savings rate, which typically bounces along at 7%, exploded to 34%, the highest ever on record.

What do they do with that money?

Only 15% of people who receive stimulus said they're going to spend it.

So they either save it or they invest it in stocks.

So we have seen the stock market explode or real estate.

And who owns 80 to 90 percent of stocks in real estate?

The top 1%.

So we have basically said, we have basically said, hey, your kids and your grandkids, we're going to max out their fucking credit card so the richest become insanely rich.

Is that what this was supposed to do?

The shareholder class here either willingly or again, delay an obfuscation or kind of just ignore the fact have played this pandemic like a strad of eras to a hall of rich people such such that we could borrow money to explode the wealth and you know we do sure we throw some bread and some circus some circuses at the neediest but it is striking how little of this revenue got to the right places yeah so how does it get there scott

Well, we talked about this, I think, unemployment insurance.

Yep.

I personally, we just would have gone, okay, here's a trillion dollars.

Here's the third most economically impaired households.

There's about 40 of them.

That's $25,000 per household.

You need a velocity of a multiplier effect.

And by the way, if you give $25,000 to the poorest household, it's almost like a one-time UBI, they're going to spend $25,000 of it.

It didn't help us to put, to give people $1,224.

Yeah, and then they don't have to make bad decisions.

And then they say, well, maybe we shouldn't have 11 of us in a thousand square foot apartment.

Maybe dad shouldn't be writing Uber if he's not, getting in an Uber if he's not wealthy.

Maybe, maybe, okay, maybe we don't want to

send someone with a comorbidity to work.

It takes the boot off their neck.

It takes the pandemic boot off their neck.

It does.

It does.

It allows them to get up and breathe for a second.

I agree with you.

The amount of wealth that has been made in this pandemic due to no innovation, none, zero.

Like that, again, I back,

you know, part of me is like, Jeff Bezos did make something that was pretty remarkable.

He deserves a lot of money for that.

But when you get into the numbers now and why he's getting wealthy now, it's a very different situation.

Same thing with Elon Musk.

The Tesla is remarkable.

Is it this remarkable?

Does he deserve this much?

No, of course not.

It just just doesn't make any sense.

And I don't know what we can do about it, except the fact that we have to start moving the money where it deserves to be versus where it's benefiting.

And you're right, this document is not.

I'm warming to this idea.

I really don't like the idea.

One of the keys to a functioning capitalist democratic society is even when you make bad decisions, there's private property.

And maybe the tax rates are low.

So, okay, fine, then change the tax rates, but you can't go back and go after private property.

I don't think you can do that.

I don't think you can rob them in this situation.

No, I'm just saying it's not because of innovation that this got they got.

Agreed.

However, I am warming to the fact I don't believe wealth taxes work because you end up being Bernard Arnaud and you just relocate to Belgium, or the wealthiest people hire the smartest people to hide the money.

I am warming to the fact, and I think it could be effective, of a one-time wealth tax.

Basically, we say, look,

anyone whose net worth is over $10 million has had the best year economically.

ever.

And quite frankly, it's a result of an externality.

It's a result of borrowing money against future generations.

And we do a one-time wealth tax because people won't move.

People won't leave the country.

People have a much more difficult time hiding their assets on a one-time tax and it won't be the motivation.

But we're quick to call for bailouts amongst the wealthiest corporations and individuals in these exogenous shocks.

We've had the mother of all exogenous shocks called an explosion in wealth across the wealthy, and we need to pay this shit back at some point.

When does the adult, when does the person who can do math, when do Republicans actually show up with fiscal responsibility again?

It just, we seem to be totally

spending of the money.

But

how do you you think that's going to get through?

Is that a Liz Warren thing?

Because she's talking about a persistent wealth tax.

Yeah,

I don't think that works.

And also, I do,

if you look at a wealth tax around the world, they have very rarely ever worked.

They make sense in theory.

They don't work because the wealthiest have the ability to

get out of them.

Or they relocate, they move their tax domain to Brussels, from Paris, right?

Yeah, or move to Florida, like a lot of people.

Well, money is very mobile.

Money is very mobile, and so are the wealthy.

The wealthy are the most mobile people in the world.

Look at how many people are moving to Texas and Florida.

It's not, anyways, it's a wealth tax, but what could work, what could work is

a one-time wealth tax.

Jody, we've more than answered your question.

We have got to start doing things to get our brand USA back, that we're equitable.

I'm sorry, but the one thing around branding, if you really wanted, if you thought of this as a company and an organization, the one thing that could bring this brand back more so than any, anything, you know, in addition to accountability is simple, simple.

All right.

Vaccinations.

If we led the world, I mean, the reality is.

We're not.

Israel's already passed us.

Everyone's already passed.

Agreed.

But everyone looks to America.

This is all about the novel coronavirus.

It's all about, okay, people remember the end.

From a brand standpoint, we could have just really seriously, royally fucked this up, which we have to date.

But if we get the rest right, if we figure out distribution, if we figure out supply chain here and we get our most vulnerable vaccinated and we start to crush,

you know what?

I think we will.

I think we will because literally we've had idiots running it.

Like now, even a passively smart person running this will have a quantum level of impact.

Well, you know why I was able to get vaccinated

and why they've lowered the age to 65.

I actually think they're going to start adding more and more cohorts because they made a smart decision.

They They said, you know what?

What are we doing stockpiling the vaccinations for the second dose?

When the first dose gets you to 80%,

just release it all.

Just start jabbing people's arms.

Yep.

Just start jabbing everyone's goddamn arm.

Yep.

And Scott, you have been jabbed, so to speak.

All right, Scott, one more quick break.

We'll be back for prediction.

My eyes are bleeding.

Is that bad?

Is that supposed to happen?

Stop.

Don't say that.

I'm kidding.

I felt like.

The third time vaccines will come in.

You know what I did?

You know what I did after I got the vaccine when I came home?

I worked out.

All right.

I was fine.

Okay.

That was fine.

All right.

One more quick break.

Granted, I've grown a third testicle.

I don't know what's happening.

Stop.

All right, Scott.

We'll be back after the break for predictions.

At blinds.com, it's not just about window treatments.

It's about you, your style, your space, your way.

Whether you DIY or want the pros to handle it all, you'll have the confidence of knowing it's done right.

From free expert design help to our 100% satisfaction guarantee, everything we do is made to fit your life and your windows.

Because at blinds.com, the only thing we treat better than windows is you.

Visit blinds.com now for up to 50% off with minimum purchase plus a professional measure at no cost.

Rules and restrictions apply.

Support for the show comes from Saks Fifth Avenue.

Saks Fifth Avenue makes it easy to shop for your personal style.

Follow us here and you can invest in some new arrivals that you'll want to wear again and again, like a relaxed product blazer and Gucci loafers, which can take you from work to the weekend.

Shopping from Saks feels totally customized from the in-store stylist to a visit to Saks.com where they can show you things that fit your style and taste.

They'll even let you know when arrivals from your favorite designers are in or when that Brunella Caccinelli sweater you've been eyeing is back in stock.

So if you're like me and you need shopping to be personalized and easy, head to Saks Fifth Avenue for the best fall arrivals and style inspiration.

Okay, Scott.

Tasteless, Scott.

Vaccinations are very safe.

Let me just reiterate that after Scott's little outbreak there,

we have another big news week coming up, the inauguration of Joe Biden.

I'm here in D.C.

I feel unsafe.

I do feel unsafe being here because who knows what's going to happen, although the troops are everywhere, as I've told you before.

Do you feel unsafe?

I do.

I do.

I'm like, I don't know what they're going to do.

On one hand, I'm like, they're such a bunch of imbeciles.

I don't know how they organize themselves.

At the same time,

arbitrary violence is easy.

So that's my worry.

Baby, sleep well tonight.

You're three bald man lovers coming down there to protect No, no, I don't want you to predict.

That's right.

Listen to me.

I'm a Belgian Malinoir.

No, please don't come down here.

I will be in much worse trouble if you're here.

And plus, who knows what else you'll bring down, what other disease you'll bring down.

Besides, even though you've been vaccinated, that does give you a leg up.

Prediction.

Prediction.

Prediction.

I'm nervous.

I don't think there's going to be violence.

I think there's so many troops here.

It's really quite astonishing.

I'm depressed about that because I really love the inaugural.

I've been to several.

And it's a really wonderful day.

Usually, no matter what side you're on, it's always a really really wonderful, you know, transfer of power is always peaceful.

Transfer of power is always a good thing.

But give us a prediction, please.

So I was going to make a prediction around the inauguration and politics.

And I thought, you know,

you can have two.

Well,

I don't want to make a prediction around that stuff because the reality is I don't have any domain expertise.

And that stuff is so important.

And

I just don't feel comfortable commenting on something this important when I don't really have any real insight.

But I'm going to have one.

Lady Gaga is going to be off the charts.

She's singing,

she's singing, and so is J-Lo.

Really?

Lady Gago and J-Lo?

Poker face.

My prediction is...

My prediction is going to be around

the economy.

I think that consumer stocks and the consumer economy is going to roar for the next 12 to 24 months.

I think you essentially have so much pent-up demand emotionally and also economically.

Consumers have saved $500 billion since the beginning of the pandemic,

Whether it's a trip to Disney, whether it's going out and buying those new Apple headphones, which aren't available till April, by the way, Apple's about to put Bose out of business.

But

you're going to see the consumer economy just absolutely,

and I don't know where it heads in two years.

It's going to be the roaring 20s again for, I don't know how long it will last.

Well, that's the correct question.

What happens after it?

But you're going to see an explosion in consumer spending.

I think probably once we get to once

quote unquote herd immunity is in sight and once consumers feel safe again, you're going to see people are just going to go ape shit with their spending.

Just ape shit.

And consumer stocks, discretionary consumer stocks are going to absolutely rip.

And it's been kind of tech has ripped, but we're going to see some of the more old line, mainline consumer cyclical stocks jump.

And the economy, We're going to see GDP.

What's going to happen to tech stocks then?

These aren't that particular.

I just don't see how they.

They've had such a run-up.

Yeah, but they just keep going.

They just keep the market here has gotten so crazy.

And yet when you think it's crazy,

it gets

even crazier.

So I don't see in the short term, I don't see any catalyst for why they would come down.

And that's about the moment that they crash.

But I don't see them coming down in the short term.

So everything up and to the right stock market, consumer stuff.

It's weird to say.

Who's going to do badly?

Gosh, that's the correct question.

I don't know.

Look, I've always said, and this is in stocks, but I've always said that all the companies that receive PPP that were going out of business and weren't prepared for a new world, I think we're going to find a lot of those businesses that got PPP loans.

We were just building piers, not bridges, to tomorrow.

Fair point.

You're right.

So I think we're going to see a lot of, unfortunately, we're going to see a lot of small businesses,

a lot of small retail.

You know, a third of restaurants could go away.

So unfortunately, small and medium-sized businesses.

But what people fail to realize is that in all the carnage, this is what we've done.

We've said, oh, we need to save existing businesses.

When you save existing businesses on the credit card of future generations, you're not only robbing against future generations, you're robbing against a younger generation.

Because this is what happened.

If that cute little restaurant goes out of business,

then the real estate prices go down, the cost of capital goes down, the cost of plates goes down.

And then some 27-year-old who's a recent graduate of a culinary institute opens her dream restaurant.

And it's a better restaurant that's better prepared for the new economy and

the new consumer behavior of the new economy.

There is opportunity when young people can buy Brooklyn real estate at $1,000 a foot instead of $1,500 a foot.

There's opportunity when people get to buy Amazon at 30 times earnings instead of 300 times earnings.

So we've collectively decided, let's use the future generations credit card and let's not have opportunity for younger people because we've got to preserve the wealth of the existing wealthy.

Well, guess what?

The reason I'm economically secure is I got to buy Apple at whatever it was, 15 bucks a share in 2009 because of the economic prices.

I got to buy Amazon

at $160

because we let the economic crises and the damage done, it's like a fire.

It spawns certain saplings from crisis.

And instead, we're like, whatever we do, don't let rich people not be as rich.

Well, guess what?

There's opportunity in crisis for the new generation to come in and

have some opportunity to buy stocks and real estate at a lower price.

But let's be clear.

Let's keep that only with the stock market, not with burning down the capital.

Oh, sorry.

Yes.

Yes, you're absolutely right.

To clarify, to clarify.

And my eyes are not bleeding.

That was a joke.

Yes.

Okay, good.

Okay, good.

Scott, I think that's a really good prediction.

I really do.

I like that.

I like that.

I like that.

I think it's good.

All right, Scott, that's the show.

Next week, we'll have Senator Mark Warner, one of someone both Scott and I know very well, to talk about he expects in the Senate for the impeachment and more because Scott knows, I mean, excuse me because Senator Warner knows a lot about tech and et cetera, et cetera.

So there's lots to talk to him about.

Let's make an extra long discussion with him because he's a sharp cookie.

Go to nymag.com slash pivot to submit your question for the podcast.

The link is also in our show notes.

Scott, please read us out.

Today's show is produced by Rebecca Sinanis, Ernie Endrutat,

engineered this episode.

Thanks also to Hannah Rosen Rosen and Drew Burroughs.

Make sure you subscribe to the show on Apple Podcasts, or if you're an Android user, check us out on Spotify or frankly, wherever you listen to podcasts.

If you liked our show, please recommend it to a friend.

Thank you to taxpayers.

Thank you to scientists.

Thank you to society.

Thank you to humanity.

Vaccines are a wonderful thing.

Thank you so much.