Spotify’s podcast boom, Amazon checks out JCPenny, Kara loves TikTok and a prediction on Shopify

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Hi, everyone.

This is Pivot from the Vox Media Podcast Network.

I'm Kara Swisher.

Free Aunt Becky.

What are you talking about, Free?

Free Aunt Becky?

What?

What?

Free Becky.

She was sentenced to prison today.

Her and her.

Oh, well, I feel so badly for her.

See Monster.

In no way whatsoever.

Free Aunt Becky.

Well, you know what?

She pushed the, you know, the other Felicity Huffman was just like, I'm sorry, I'm sorry, I'm sorry, I'm sorry.

What can I do to make it up?

And she got off, right?

And now, Aunt Becky went further than most people, I think.

But nonetheless, she was very defiant in the face of the fact that she really did something bad.

I'm not sure.

That's a long prison sentence for Aunt Becky.

So, too, I love Twitter because it just, it just, it inevitably comes back to haunt you.

And these are tweets from Felicity Huffman and Lori Laughlin, respectively.

Felicity Huffman put out a tweet before the controversy.

Anyone know any good back-to-school hacks?

That's right,

actually.

That's her tweet.

And then Lori Laughlin's tweet was, some things are more important than money, such as doing the right thing.

True words.

Yeah, I never tweet things like that.

That was her tweet.

I never tweeted that.

I'll tell you, though, they are going to class up whatever big house is.

She's not going.

They'll do something.

She has

a coronavirus.

They'll make a coronavirus exception.

Like Michael Tullman is home.

There's a lot of people.

I agree.

Yeah, they'll be up.

Her husband is dreamy.

Is he?

Yeah, they're dreamy.

They're jeans.

He's like a jeans mogul or something.

They're both very, they're going to class.

God, that's going to be the best.

Speaking of classing up the joint,

here's the irony.

Pivot won two Webby recognitions for best business podcast year, the people's choice and the actual judging, which means the fancy people like us and the people like us, the real people like us.

And at the same time as we're getting this award, Joe Rogan signs a multi-year licensing deal with Spotify and gets

$100.

Oh, wait, no, that's the guy that sold the Spotify.

We just got a $150.

He did not get a Webby, but he got the $100.

What the hell, Scott?

What is going on?

Yeah, you and your awards.

That's not putting tables on your body.

That's not putting food on my table.

Let me just say I got three.

Let's not.

By the way, three is what I got.

But anyway,

best technology and best ad.

The ad I did with Gavin Belson,

the Gavin Belson character.

It was great.

My ads are so much better than yours.

This was a particularly good ad.

It was funny.

We were pretending I was doing an interview with them, and it was a very wonderful copy.

It was really, it was very creative.

Awards for best ads.

Listen to me.

Listen to me.

Why didn't we get the hundred?

Let's focus on the fact we love the Webbies.

Thank you so much.

We've never been more thrilled in our lives.

But

just real quickly, I'm very serious, Kiera.

I would like to thank our dozens and dozens of fans.

We have lots of fans.

Don't say that.

We have great fans.

I know, I know, I know.

Let's talk about Rogan.

Everyone's swearing up.

No, but seriously, talk about this.

What's the deal?

What is our future?

What is the future of podcasting, Et cetera, et cetera, et cetera.

This is a big deal.

And it reflects a couple interesting trends, some old, some new.

The old trend that it reflects is that advertising sucks.

And anyone with any money is figuring out a way to opt out of advertising.

If you get...

But there's advertising on this thing.

He's not going, there's going to continue to be advertising on it.

You know that, right?

So it doesn't suck that badly.

Okay, go ahead.

Keep going.

Keep going.

Okay.

Okay, so if you're lucky in podcasting, you get ads at a CPM of $20 or $30, meaning that for every thousand people that show up, an advertiser will pay 20 bucks or a download.

So that's two or three cents.

So effectively, and this is what media has been doing forever, media thinks that you're just a fucking loser in the sense that you're willing to endure this shit for two or three cents.

And what technology has done is it's liberated consumers who've said, you know what?

I'll pay 12 cents to avoid advertising on a podcast.

I'll pay 40 cents to avoid all the advertising on Modern Family, which is their their ability to monetize it.

And so you have this emerging industry, or not even emerging, emergent industry that has said, we'll figure out a way to use technology to get a credit card through an app store or Apple TV or Amazon Prime or Hulu, whatever it is, or video on demand that says, all right, would you rather, there's so much margin in this because we're only getting 11, 20, 49 cents of money to pelt bullshit out of you telling you a restless leg syndrome that if we can figure out a way to charge you a buck or two bucks, there's margin for the technology players, the carriers, all kinds of stuff.

And this is essentially the kind of the most popular content, the most popular ad-driven content.

He was making around 30 million bucks a year, supposedly, has found somebody who said, okay, we're going to liberate your users from this ad-supported ecosystem.

The other thing that's...

Well, it's not, though.

He's going to continue.

It's going to continue to be free.

He's coming off of YouTube.

It is not going to be behind a wall.

He's going to, you know, it's a licensing deal.

He's not an employee of Spotify, which is not going to produce it.

So it's a little different.

I thought at first.

It's not free, isn't it?

Spotify.

No, not for the free, not for the

non-premium.

Yeah, exactly.

And so there's ads here.

And what it is, I think it's, I thought for a second it's their Howard Stern moment, you know, with

when Howard Stern moved over.

And I think

I think that it's not quite that because he's still going to be available.

It's just that it will bring in maybe more advertisers to Spotify, which is not its focus, and at the same time, push people to premium.

Because I think the catalog will be there.

I think that's where they'll put behind the wall.

But the premium model.

I think they'll end up with one out-supported model or a model for seven or ten minutes, and then for the full thing.

I would be shocked if within three years, Joe Rogan isn't sort of behind a wall.

And the only way you access Joe Rogan is to be a subscriber subscriber to Spotify.

That's where the money is.

They just, every dollar they get in advertising is worth X.

Every dollar they get in subscription is worth three to six X.

Yeah, yeah.

Well, they're pushing.

They're gonna have to move shit behind a wall.

What's hardest for Rogan here is coming off of YouTube, which I'd love to have known that the behind the scenes of that, like that YouTube didn't really push to hold him in some way.

You know, that this was, he had to have been in extensive talks with them, presumably, because he's been a sort of a mainstay on there.

Now, they've got lots and lots and lots of creators on YouTube.

and Spotify is cherry-picking this one off.

What does it say about podcasting?

Or nothing does it say?

Well, that's the big trend.

The bigger thing here is that

the most valuable companies in the world

that are worth between 800 billion or 1.3 trillion,

ranging from Facebook, which, by the way, just hit an all-time high, to Apple,

Amazon, and

Google.

These guys, effectively, they have said, okay,

the key is selling more search words, more handsets, and more paper towels, as you pointed out.

And the way we can do that is through emotion and loyalty to our platform, our operating system, our devices.

And

the most emotional content that has the highest NPS scores is actually media's content.

So Netflix has incredibly high NPS scores versus

your cable company.

So they went into the business of strengthening or cementing that emotional connection by creating video content and buying in music.

And all of these things are very powerful.

And with the thing about podcasting is that when you're in people's ears, you do create a pretty strong relationship.

You do.

And every podcast yesterday went up in value 20 or 30 or even 50%

because just as nine women can't have a baby in a month, there's certain podcasts, including ours truly, that have built a following that no matter how much money they have, they can't build it overnight.

So

yesterday you saw every big tech company and Spotify pull out their pencil and said, what podcast do we want to be in?

Because they're going to start snapping them all up.

Even Spotify, who saw their stock up,

biggest stock.

They spent $100 million supposedly for this, but their stock was at $1.4 billion

on the move.

So they're like, okay, let's go do this 100 times.

So you're going to see, you're going to see that.

That's not going to work 100 times.

He's a special character.

I mean, there's a couple podcasts that are really big like his and

controversial.

Not just that, he's, he attracts a lot of attention.

You know, he's got his weird conspiracy.

He even talked about it in the New York Times article.

He's got this conspiracy edge.

He's got controversy around sometimes he says things.

There was one thing he said about a movie theater.

It was terrible.

You know,

in an African-American every podcast in the top 100 just became an acquired enterprise asset yesterday.

And before that, everyone was sort of cocking their head and saying, well, it's a great world for podcasts.

We'll see these things all of a sudden.

And quite quickly.

Who are the players?

very quickly, and then we'll get on to other big.

What's that?

Who are the buyers?

Who should we expect phone calls from, Scott, and

lovely bottles of champagne?

Well, obviously Spotify, but first and foremost, Apple, Amazon, and also Google as they try and get people more attached to their Amazon show, to Alexa, to Apple Music, to Amazon Music.

You're also going to see cross.

What's interesting about the Rogan deal is that you could see

Spotify trying to figure out a video offering that pushes him up.

You could see, I mean, the most likely.

That's the interesting part, part, the video offering.

I agree.

And you could see Amazon starting to acquire podcasts, and then you would be able, when the podcast came up, just as there's been small little innovations.

When I play my Amazon show,

when I play Sean Mendez, it plays the lyrics automatically.

Right.

You could see when you play a podcast, it starts showing the video of it, and maybe even some charts to help illuminate what the podcast is about.

But podcasting is another one of those things where a small niche audience, and Netflix invented the power of of the long tail or show the power of the long tail that these companies might go after.

So I think any podcast in the top 100 is probably

potentially an acquisition target now.

And unfortunately, what it's going to do is the best podcasts are probably going to get bought for an irrational price.

And it's going to leave all the other guys who've built great podcast businesses, all the carriers, You know, all the the Wondrees, those guys, unfortunately Vox,

they're gonna have to increase even pay even more to retain top award-winning talent oh it's award-winning and because the guys with the big pockets who can monetize it elsewhere are showing up what number are we what number are we on the on the list what number are we well i saw and we're big in the uae in the uae and argentina those are our biggest markets we're like in the top 30 everywhere else we're like in the top 200 in terms of prototype

interesting interesting i like that you keep charts you look at our charts i don't look at our charts i just like i'm obsessed with affirmations i don't like people but i'm desperate for their affirmation.

All right, well, this is interesting.

So

we had to talk, Scott, obviously.

That's really going on.

We talk twice a week.

We do.

I mean, secretly.

Everyone has to listen.

Secretly, in a secret location under a, you know, in the dead of night.

That's what I'm talking about.

To meet somewhere.

With masks, of course.

Anyway, it's a really interesting time.

We will see where this all goes.

What do you think of this?

I mean, Kara, you are, if there is a queen of podcasting, you're it.

What do you think of I think it's interesting.

I think I was very early to understanding this.

I think I sort of kicked myself that I didn't take more advantage of it because I had the initial insight that was correct.

How long have you been doing podcasting?

Five years, 525 Rico decodes.

I think it's,

I think it's, I think it's, it's a, I think when people talk about podcasting is over, this, I think they're idiots.

And I'm like, fine, it's over, get out, like kind of thing.

I think it is a, I, I noticing the fan, the fan base is fascinating.

I literally walked down the street and people like this week, four joggers, Kara, where's Scott?

Like, it's really interesting.

And it's not that, like, love me, love me, it's that they love it.

They love, they love me.

No, I think you're their friend.

There's something very interesting.

We love the product.

And I think we have a good product.

So

I'm very bullish on this, Scott.

You and I have to be able to get together.

Put the media in a dysfunctional relationship till the end of time.

The emotional connection you make when you're in someone's ears and you're just talking over an extended period of time and not using tricks to try and say, and next up, the person who killed JFK or whatever it is, or you're not trying to create rage for a click, that intimate, calmer relationship.

Basically, big tech has discovered that is another, that is another way to cement the relationship so they'll order more handsets

and

paper towels.

I just think it's, I think it's more simple than that.

I think it's good content, and not everybody can do it.

That's the other thing.

Everyone thinks like a lot of people got into the interview business and have fallen off.

You know what?

We do have an unusual rapport, and it's it's special.

And so not everyone can do what you're doing.

Go on.

I'm just saying.

Unusual.

Believe me, no one is more surprised.

Women describe my relationship as one of those things.

No one is surprised more than me that you are the follow-on to Walt Mossberg.

I just cannot believe it.

But here we are.

Here we are.

You know, Walt was my last partner.

Like, I had a partnership.

We had a really successful, really good rapport.

And I think it's the rapport.

I can't live up to that.

That guy has a lot of people.

No, but you're different.

It's a different.

You're like my third marriage, essentially.

Anyway, you know, the interesting one at the end.

So let's move on.

Does Amanda know that?

There's no reason we can't all

coexist.

She is fine with you and George Conway.

That's how she feels.

She's like, how are your boyfriends doing?

I'm like, well, very well.

Anyway.

Me and George Conway.

I'm not sure how I feel about that.

Well, I love him on Twitter.

He's my Twitter boyfriend.

God, you know him and what's her name?

Oh, I don't know Kellyanne.

I've never met her.

Kellyanne, you know they have just a fucking hot ass.

No, you know what?

I'm going to No, I don't think I'm going to be able to do it.

Can you imagine how they go at it?

No, I don't know.

You're hurting my career.

Throw down, you bitch.

Oh, my God.

Okay.

And on that note, is exactly why we're going to make, like, if he made 100 million, we will make a smaller amount of money.

They could power a small city with the sex they must be having.

Okay, now we're going to go to big stories.

Amazon is reportedly in talks to buy bankrupt JCPenney.

Now, speaking of exciting relationships, that is not a sexy relationship, I think.

JCPenney declared bankruptcy on Friday, announced it would close nearly 250 stores.

Now it's reported that Amazon is in talks with JCPenney to make a deal in which Amazon could proliferate its branded clothing and possibly some of its brick-and-mortar stores into a warehouse space.

That would be Amazon's most notable brick-and-mortar buy since it took on Whole Foods for $13.7 billion a few years ago, and that turned out pretty well.

So it also said it was teaming up with Vogue to create a new designer fashion storefront, a market the company's been eyeing for years.

Why?

Does they have to buy everything?

Or what do you think about this particular buy?

I think it's, I have to, again, think about it, but initially I'm like, what?

But I'm not sure I should do that.

Oh, it's retail bankruptcy or bankruptcy was sort of invented for retail.

And it's a very attractive construct.

And that's why PPP is stupid.

We should let companies go through bankruptcy, but that's another talk show.

But with bankruptcy, with retail, you get to go in and get out of all the bad leases, which are usually a big part of the reason why you're going bankrupt.

You get to renegotiate the the existing leases.

And I'm trying to think of an analogy here.

Carnegie Mellon, a great school, a good brand, but it has an amazing faculty.

So the faculty or the personnel are bigger than the brand, if you will.

And department stores have the best management of the most underrated sectors.

They have actually really fantastic e-commerce.

Macy's is a multi-billion dollar e-commerce company.

JCPenney's has actually very strong e-commerce.

Sears had strong e-commerce.

These guys are very, you know,

they're very strong in terms of e-commerce.

What they're getting here is of their, I think, 850 stores, they'll keep 200 or 300.

And

I'm not even sure they'll be stores.

They'll just be really well-placed warehouses that they'll can turn on in 60 days as opposed to 200.

Inexpensive real estate already with distribution facilities, et cetera, et cetera.

It's a really, I think it's an aim at Walmart, too.

Like, this is how Walmart, they're creating the next Walmart.

That is what I think.

Because it's, you know, Walmart's been such a successful business, including technologically.

But, you know, they, and they've been trying to innovate here, but I think it's a really interesting way to get into that.

I'm just glad we're not going to have to talk about it anymore.

Remember about 10 years ago, all we talked about for two years was Greece going out of business and creating contagion across Europe.

And we just talked about it.

It's like, I've been waiting for JCPenneys to go.

bankrupt for 10 years because I'm just sick of talking about it.

It's not surprising they went bankrupt.

It's surprising it took this long.

But the other thing, the other thing that Amazon will get here is JC Penny's actually has some pretty strong

a pretty strong apparel business and they have some great private label brands one of the fastest zero to a billion brands in the history of apparel was Arizona do you know what Arizona is no it's their denim brand they got sick of selling Levi's and they said we can do this we realize our

access our custody of the consumer and our ability to merchandise

Amazon can we build a denim brand and they built a billion dollar business around Arizona denim so they have private label brands they're pretty good at apparel these are warehouses what would an amazon gene be called?

Gosh, I don't know.

Yeah, I know.

Listen, when I'm in the store.

This is Bezos.

Bezos feels like a fun product.

Bezos is a fun product.

You know, maybe for a line of,

I was thinking kitchen equipment, then I was thinking of personal devices,

as you might imagine.

Anyway,

this is an interesting thing because I was just in the Whole Foods and I was noticing

how much stuff is Whole Foods now?

How much stuff is Whole Foods branded?

And I go to grab it because prices, the price differential is massive.

Like, it's really quite

half.

It's,

I was looking, and I was sort of looking at two.

I think it was pasta or something.

It was whatever it is, in every aisle, there's a choice, and the price differential is amazing.

And the quality is fine.

Like, and so it's a really interesting question of whether you would jeans is a different thing because I think people like the fashion idea behind them and very careful.

Because I know my kids buy brands on some things and not on others.

But it's definitely, I think it's right into the eyes of right, a shot right to the

face of

Walmart.

This is well, according to Amazon, they never go after anyone.

They're just focused on the consumer.

You're probably right.

But JC Penny's is, they've got good e-commerce.

They pick up really well-located warehouses, good private label apparel brands, and they get it on, you know, pennies on the dollar.

And you're seeing this, I mean, this is just

the markets, and this feeds into a larger story.

The markets are up, right?

And the NASDAQ is up for the year.

And I interviewed Aswat the Motorin on my TV show premiering tonight at 10 p.m.

No mercy, no malice.

But anyways, he talked about the market.

And he said, I said, it just makes no sense that the market is up.

The NASDAQ has decided the world is a better place today than it was January 1st.

And he said, well, the market, sort of the wisdom of crowds, basically is saying there might be a rough year or two years, but in three or four years, we're in a better place.

And one of the reasons we're in a better place, quite frankly, is that JCPenneys goes out of business and those those assets become

assets of Amazon.

And Amazon is able to produce five times the number of dollars on the same human capital as JCPenneys.

So what the market's basically saying is that this culling is good.

Once we get through the other end, we're going to have a set of stronger fighter leaning.

Although the question is, what becomes of all the people?

As you talk about corporations.

No, it's not good for society.

But the nationalists are going to be able to do that.

Because I think it was 42%.

There was a story in the time saying 42% of the jobs will not come back, which is amazing.

Like this culling has a personal price.

What's interesting is that you didn't think last week that they should buy Neam DeMarcus though, which was,

you know, see if they're in this high-fashion idea with Vogue.

Why not do that?

They're

fancy.

If I show up to the liquidation sale at JCPenneys, am I buying them?

I mean, they're not.

Buying is a very amorphous term here because if

Amazon goes in and quote-unquote buys it, they're going to buy some of the real estate.

They'll take over some of of the brands.

I mean,

this is a few different people at the bargain bin.

This is JCPenneys was,

I don't know what the structure of the relationship is going to be and how much of the firm they'll actually keep.

They're not going to keep the brand.

Yeah, not at all.

My witness.

So, and if they close 70% of the stores or 80% of the stores and they lay off 70 or 80% of the business, do they really buy the company?

They're buying the assets.

They're buying the assets and possibly some of the technology and the people, some of the people.

It's just to sort of plug and play for for them

as they please, as they please, and that's what they'll do.

Although

they haven't closed a lot of Whole Foods, which is interesting.

They haven't, I don't think there's anything.

Although, Whole Foods was a growing healthy company, though.

Whole Foods was on the way up.

JCPenney's, yeah, I mean, gosh, JCPenney has been dying for 10 years.

On the whole, now, I haven't been in JCPenney's in forever, but Whole Foods is not as good as an experience as it was when it was owned.

Is that right?

You don't think you think it's degraded?

It's degraded.

It's degraded.

It's still better than, say, a giant food or a Safeway.

That is certainly true.

But in general, and the prices are lower for sure because of all these Amazon products, these Whole Foods

products.

But it's not,

the people look relentlessly under siege, the workers.

And it's just, it's a different, you can feel it.

It doesn't feel, it doesn't feel the same.

It had sort of this fun sort of, I don't know, I can't explain it.

It's not the same.

It's not the same.

It's a nice place to hang out.

Yeah.

Whole Foods was the only grocery store in America where you would go buy something and then stay there to eat it.

Yeah, like I don't stay there.

Not that because of coronavirus, but it's just, it's a different store and it feels like a different store.

And like you can make a joke, like I often make a joke when I'm checking out and I said making Jeff Bezos richer.

And every employee is like,

like that.

Like they're not happy.

They're like, they don't go, yeah, Jeff Bezos is great.

They do not.

And they actually, there's a look like that comes like a dark look, like they work for the, for the, for dark.

You want my Whole Foods story?

Yeah, sure.

Really quick.

No way to take really quick which means it won't be longer than 11 minutes we'll sell more onto our hat so uh i was going to a dinner party this is just after i'd moved to new york and i was going to one of these you know fancy dinner parties and i thought okay i got to get a bottle of wine and i and i bought some cheese and a bottle of wine trying to pretend i'm more

than i am and i they had the most beautiful like giant bulbous sexy I think red grapes.

And I picked up just this massive clump of them.

And I walked up to the checkout with my wine and cheese and grapes.

$17.

And I set the grapes down.

And she said, She said, Are you sure?

And she weighed them down.

I'm like, Yeah.

And I said, And I said, and I stopped, and I go, How much?

And I'm not joking.

She said, It's $31.

Oh, wow.

And I think this is one of my better moments in low bar.

I grabbed one and ate it and said, How about now?

That's my whole food story.

That's a good whole food story.

That's my whole food story.

$31 of grapes.

Oh, man.

My introduction to New York.

You bought them.

You bought them.

I'm glad that you.

I like to signal my worth as a maid through.

You are not any more attractive because you look like an idiot for spending $31 on grapes.

Hey, hey, I got a Webby.

Listen.

I got a Webby.

I got three.

Anyway.

All right, then we're going to take a quick break and come back to talk about Saudi Arabian investments in big companies because that's happening, of course.

And a listener mail question.

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Welcome back, Scott.

You grape lover.

Grape lover.

Lover of expensive expensive grapes.

Number three, the future ex-Mrs.

Galloway.

Three awards, too, by the way.

Anyway, this story, you had one.

Just let me just make that clear.

This next story suggestion actually comes from Ashan, a pivot listener in Sri Lanka.

We have fans in Sri Lanka.

Lovely.

Big in Sri Lanka.

We're big in Sri Lanka.

I think we're probably little in Sri Lanka, but we have a fan there.

So anyway, Saudi Arabia's public investment fund, PIF is what it's called, has been on a spending spree since the pandemic started.

They've snapped up about $7.7 billion worth of shares in some major companies.

They bought a $300 billion Republican PIF, bought stakes in Boeing, Facebook, Disney, Marriott, and Starbucks.

It also invested in two big banks, Citigroup and Bank of America, and oil giants, BP Total, and Royal Dutch Shell.

Well, they're on a spending spree, a discount spending spree, although some of the stocks are not that far off.

What do you think about this?

What is your thoughts on the Saudis coming, these thuggish, horrible,

especially led by MBS, coming in and doing this?

So

I'm still kind of conflicted around whether I don't have the same, what I'll call, issue with them buying stock as you do.

But

the

look, they're buying great companies, some people would argue, on sale, although they're not buying Facebook on sale, which just hit an all-time high.

Disney, you know, companies like Disney, Boeing, these companies are Royal, even

Royal Dutch.

I think petroleum-based companies are probably great buys right now.

These are really one well-run company.

Companies when we decide

to build solar farms, you need trucks and fuel.

And anyways, my point is they're getting, I think this is great, they're getting, these are long-term investors, I think, in terms of 50 and 100-year timelines.

And these are outstanding companies with strong management, some of which are kind of 20, 30% off of their high.

So yeah, I think it's right so they're doing this.

And of course, they were before trying to be on the trying to be edgy by doing the Vision Fund, which of course Masio Shison said

that he made a mistake.

He compared himself to Jesus.

I didn't even understand the comparison.

Jesus was misunderstood as well.

Okay.

No, he wasn't.

Everybody understands Jesus.

No one understands WeWork evaluation.

They were in that.

They were doing those things and putting money all over the place and Uber and various places.

So this is like a flight to quality or stability.

This feels like, this feels very Warren Buffetty, actually.

And I know they've been in, they know they've been in other things, but they were sort of being more splashy around the more

risky funds.

They've lost all that money.

Yeah,

this is return to quality, flight to quality.

You're not going to get fired for buying Disney.

It's just, whereas you might get fired or dismembered for losing, whatever it is, $40 billion back in.

Masio Shisan.

So look, Vision One is in their rearview mirror.

I think, I don't know, they make some crazy amount of cash flow every day just from the oil they sell.

And they're smart investors.

I've had limited exposure to some of the sovereign wealth funds out of the Gulf, and they're incredibly impressive, smart, you know, thoughtful, rigorous investors.

So it's, yeah, this is, you're right.

This Buffety is exactly the right way to describe this.

And they're also, they tend to be good shareholders.

They tend to be.

They tend to show up and be very supportive, and they're long-term shareholders.

If you're a company to a certain extent, other than than the dismemberment and the other than the dismemberment?

I don't know.

I had a lot of people worried in Silicon Valley to be affiliated with the Saudi.

I thought that would take two seconds.

And then they cash their check.

Everyone pretends to give a good goddamn and then they cash their check.

Yeah.

But just from a shareholder standpoint, they're long-term shareholders.

They're usually very supportive.

They don't show up and heckle the cheap seats.

They're not looking at the short-term swings in the stock.

Just the pure semantics of what it quote-unquote means to be a good shareholder, they're considered very good shareholders.

All right, but what about the other stuff?

Come on.

It can't like abandon.

I get it.

I get it.

Do you think a tech company should not take sovereign money out of the Gulf?

I have said so.

I have said they have.

I think they shouldn't.

Well, I was at an interesting dinner party.

Those are my dogs, sorry.

I was at a dinner party where

I can't stop them.

Did you bring grapes?

Did you bring grapes?

I didn't bring grapes.

I wouldn't let my children eat $31 grapes.

Anyway,

because

they like eat eat everything.

They're like Hoovers.

I lost my train of thought.

I was at a dinner party where they were talking about this money, like different money that they were getting.

And they made it, they stack ranked people.

And I described this in a column: like, oh, Singapore is good money.

And, you know, they're a little bit, you know, they clamp down on people and human rights, but you're not human rights on personal privacy rights, but they're better than this group and better than this group.

And then, you know, down near the bottom were the Russians and the Saudis at that point.

And so it was sort of a stack rate gain.

There's people that take the Saudi money now.

I mean, I don't think certain people, Zilgabad, would pause two seconds.

It's all over the valley.

And here's the thing.

I understand.

If you're going to, you know, my sense is you go all in or all out.

And that is, if you're not going to take Saudi money, then what you want to do is you want the government ideally to say that we're not going to let this

government or these funds invest here because you're disarming unilaterally against your competitors who have access to cheaper capital, who can use that to jump out ahead of you.

And if you don't take their money, if the U.S.

were to say, all right, we're not taking Gulf money, and I get the argument, and I think there's a solid argument, and we should have it, that all that's going to do is increase the valuation and lower the cost of capital of Chinese internet companies.

And so

I don't think it's cut and dry.

I don't know if

I were the CEO of a fast-growing company, and as is the case now with the internet, where it's more about access to cheap capital, that is the weapon, that is what built Netflix and Amazon, you want the cheapest capital.

It's like, okay, am I good for me?

I'm going to be moral.

Am I competitor?

It's not moral to go out of business.

It's not moral to be crushed by a big tech company.

And one of the keys to that not happening is access to very cheap capital from good shareholders.

And as shareholders, they tend to be good.

So

I think this is a tough one.

And I think CEOs, I think the majority of CEOs who are thoughtful and have good boards, I think it's difficult to decide you're not going to do.

I mean, you're going to not, so they shouldn't, none of these guys should have taken soft bank money, soft bank money.

Well, in this case in in this case in this case this is public investments they can't really stop it someone was going off against Disney I was like they can't stop this out

period yeah so I mean they can decry it and decry they can say something public we don't like these oh these people require us to they're not gonna say anything and it's hard I mean I think about it a lot the other day someone asked me

if I would take money from News Corp and I said absolutely not I just wouldn't because I but I have choices right I'll have choices for jobs and things like that and uh and I wouldn't I actually would make what if you had shareholders what if a lot of people who didn't have hold on who didn't have the luxury of living the fat life of Kara Swisher

and you had a lot of shareholders a lot of employees with options yeah and at the end of the day your job is to serve as a fiduciary for all stakeholders not to impose your morals and your political your geopolitical

you know your viewpoint on stakeholders and employees who are all looking to make a living.

It's just...

I would still do it.

And they'd know it going in.

Like, this is what you're getting with me.

And if you're with me, this is what you do.

This is what you do.

This is what happens when you roll with the cat.

That's right.

You roll with the cat.

You will not be hanging out with Rupert Murdoch.

I had a really interesting meeting with someone from a book book person.

And they were lovely.

And they knew.

They knew.

I was like, I will never, you could back up the truck and I still wouldn't take your money.

And it was really interesting from one of their companies.

And so,

although I might take their money and then give it all to like Australian Climate Change Relief and say something publicly, or there's ways to do it.

It's a really interesting question in this case Disney Marriott Starbucks Boeing Facebook cannot stop the Saudis from buying but it is interesting shift away from things like the vision funds and I don't think they'll be back anytime soon to those funds they will be back but they will not be back anytime soon anyway Scott we've got a listener question roll tape you've got you've got can't believe I'm gonna be a mailman you've got mail

hey Scott and Kara Jeff Gadway here from Waterloo Canada interested to get your takes on Disney head of streaming Kevin Mayer going to TikTok as CEO and COO of parent company ByteDance.

With streaming becoming a key way to help Disney extend distribution, many considered Mayer to be a strong contender to replace Iger or at least a pivotal part of their leadership team going forward.

What does his departure mean for Disney and for the future success of Disney Plus?

What could it mean for TikTok and their strategy going forward?

Thanks for taking my question and big congrats to both of you and the entire Pivot team on your incredible work and the big Webby win this week.

Thanks again and have a great week.

All right, listen, I have an opinion about this.

Go ahead.

What do you want to say?

He was lovely from Waterloo.

That guy wasn't lovely.

He was plucky.

He was either very caffeinated or plucky.

No, Canadian.

Seems like the kind of guy you want in your company because he'd be a good culture carrier, like really happy all the time.

We're laying off 30% of the people, and he'd be like, this is an opportunity.

Anyways, I love him.

I know Kevin Mayer.

I think this is fascinating.

They're literally all nice.

They're not all nice.

But in any case, many of them are.

Many more of them they are here.

Kevin Mayer is a fascinating executive.

He obviously was in line to replace and it was a surprise that he did not get that job.

That was a big and he had, I think he had worked at the parks.

He has so much experience, very strong.

Disney's got a bench, right?

So he's got to have been like, this is my shot.

I'm not going to lose my shot in the Hamiltonian song way.

And, you know, I think this is the precursor to them spinning TikTok off.

off of the company.

There's been rumors of that, and this is the guy to do it.

He's got a lot of credibility.

I don't think it'll affect Disney Plus.

I think they've got that in place, and there's tons of good executives there that could run it.

But they just, there wasn't room enough for Kevin and Bob Chapak, whatever his name is, and the other Bob hanging around Bob Iger, who's obviously the best CEO of all of them.

So I think it's a good move.

I think it's a great move by TikTok, and I think it's to get it going.

I think TikTok's not been a flash in the pan.

I think it's a wonderful product.

I've been using it a lot this week.

Really, use TikTok?

I've been testing it out.

I've been interested in it.

I'm interested.

Of course, interestingly, I have it on another phone.

No, it's not.

No, I watched Sarah Cooper, like how she's using it.

No, I'm not trying to make it.

I think there's an opportunity for lots of people on this side.

No, there's an opportunity here.

I had an interesting discussion with Gary Vaynerchuk about this.

He's been doing a lot more on TikTok.

It would be remiss on us not to examine TikTok as a distribution vehicle for our content and stuff like that.

I'm doing this for you.

It's not all dancing, and the algorithms there are just superb.

They really do know what you want.

And that's really what I think at Secret Sauce is compared to Instagram is sort of just random, like it's random, like what you get.

In this case, it's always giving me what I want.

Anyway, I think it's a really big move for them.

And I think it's a big move for Kevin Mayer.

And

I think TikTok's going to explode.

I do.

I do.

I do.

What do you think?

Yeah,

I think you nailed it.

In any company with the quality of Disney, it's the board's job and the CEO's job to have

about once a year on a public company board or any good public company board, they'll do a succession review and they'll say, here are our top eight executives and here are two or three that could potentially be CEO.

And if you're not doing that, you're not being a good fiduciary.

But he was one of those guys.

And whenever,

and every senior executive at a major corporation wakes up every morning and says, good morning, CEO.

They all want to be CEO.

They all think they should be CEO.

And to a certain extent, they've all been told they've got a realistic shot at it.

And that's how you keep these people around.

These people aren't there to end up at number two or three.

They're there because they want to be the CEO of a company.

And they hit their 50s.

They realize they're going to be dead soon.

And they get very focused on being the CEO of a great company.

And so whenever you announce who the next CEO is, generally speaking, a few people leave to go be CEO of a lesser company.

Again, I'm using

faculty, but

when we don't award kids, I say kids, people in their 30s tenure, they go to generally a lesser brand and get tenure.

That's sort of this whole farm system.

And TikTok, you're right.

It probably signals that TikTok is going to spin because he wouldn't go do it to own shares in a private or to own shares in ByteDance.

He wants to own, I mean, he'll probably be, if TikTok is in fact spun, my guess is whatever deal he's garnered, he'll probably get several hundred million dollars or be a billionaire on the IPO.

So this is a brilliant move for ByteDance slash TikTok.

He's going to do really well.

I think it's a great product.

I'm using it.

I love it.

I think it's an interesting product.

I think it's really inventive and interesting.

Now, the issue, the issue.

And what do you, other than the algorithm?

It just is, you know, I use both, I've been using Instagram a little bit more lately just to test things out.

It's easier to use.

It's easier to use.

I don't know.

You know, it's sort of an easy-to-use Snapchat.

Like, I don't know how else to put it.

Snapchat is so much more inventive than all of them, and yet it's harder to use.

And so,

and I like Instagram.

I see the value in it, but it's not, it's not, as usual, it's not being innovated on because Kevin isn't there, the other Kevin,

the founder,

Systrum.

And so it's just.

Well, Facebook just announced a pretty innovative move around, probably around, as it relates to Instagram.

I mean, what that is.

What is it?

Gangster move.

They're going to.

Commerce, yeah, it's always commerce.

Yeah, it was already happening.

I bought so many, I wanted to buy so much stuff on Instagram.

It's crazy.

The ads are wonderful.

And by the way, Facebook just hits Kara.

Guess what?

Microsoft was always at an all-time high.

It still was the least innovative place on the earth.

I'm sorry.

I just agree.

You predicted what you're doing.

What did the dog say about Facebook?

Mediocre innovation yields great results.

Sorry.

Yeah, go ahead.

You're ignoring that.

It's going to be at an all-time high.

What did the dog?

All-time high.

Okay.

What happened yesterday?

All-time high.

I said it would be at 250 and an all-time high.

In any case, TikTok, I think, is

their waterloop.

I think TikTok is a really interesting business.

I think it's really great.

I think it's got the muscle behind it.

And when it goes public, it's going to be the real competitor.

It is no Snapchat in this case.

They cannot slap away TikTok, especially this executive.

And the problem TikTok has, TikTok, TikTok has,

is that it's the China issue.

And if they remove that, and that's what Facebook will try to press on, that's the wound they've got,

especially with this added intensity right now.

I think this will, if they spin it off, they make it an American company, remove all the things from china i think i think it's got i think it's got a good a good aim at the heart of facebook thank you very much okay so as you would say listen to me listen to me your emotions are clouding your judgment facebook um uh is just on fire right now and whoever runs strategy there i don't know if it's i don't know if it's mark i don't know if it's cheryl they are thinking with such a ridiculously clear boo flame giphya is probably the most interesting 400 million dollar acquisition they're going to get all kinds of signals they're going to incorporate better visual tools into their platforms.

And they got it for $400 million.

They just did this thing with Joe Mart in India where they probably potentially could be the most interesting social commerce company in the fastest growing economy.

And they just announced this big Facebook shops initiative.

They're on fire.

Facebook, I mean, you just got to get to them all.

Everybody, you know, they've said to their 30,000 lawyers and

Cheryl, just like be our heat shield, be our beard, be our shark repellent, but there are people ignoring all the noise and are very focused on long-term strategy.

Agree.

They're on fire right now.

I agree.

They remind me so much of Microsoft.

I can't even tell you.

I can't even.

They arm the Microsoft of this age.

They were like that too.

And

they were like that too.

I think they're also a

young people repellent.

There's not a young person I know who thinks it's a great thing.

But, you know, there's lots of other people than young people.

But i i think tick tock i want you to try tick tock for a week and then let tell me you need to try it it's really a good it's really well done it's so in it's so intuitive and i i i'm in interesting creative people are on tick tock and i always it's like neighborhoods that shift over and see

the gays are there you know what i mean or whatever that's what yeah no i need to spend more time on tick tock less time on chat okay all right okay one more quick break and we'll be back

we're just gonna roll right over

The people heard it.

And I let them let it sit there.

You're just gonna ignore that.

All right, Scott, one more quick break.

We'll be back for predictions.

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Okay, we're back.

Scott, I predict that Pivot is going to keep winning more awards and making more money.

We're getting bigger.

We are, but give us an edgier prediction than that.

That's obvious.

That's just obvious.

I think that Shopify is...

is going to make a big acquisition is going to make a big acquisition.

I think that they now have the market capitalization to start buying.

I was actually would have been more,

I wouldn't be surprised if Shopify shows up and becomes a competitive bidder for JC Penny's or one or one or more reasons.

Tell me more.

Tell me more.

I would say I don't know anything, but Shopify now has...

I don't know if you don't know.

And I think you have insiders everywhere, but keep going.

Go ahead.

Shopify now has such an incredibly, I don't call it inflated, but it's so fully valued that if they don't have every investment bank in the world and an incredibly robust corporate development department trying to find acquisitions, they're not doing their job because it's almost impossible to justify the valuation based on their organic growth right now.

So they should be, I got to think, I got to think a bunch of content companies, retailers, whoever it is, are hearing from Shopify.

So in the next 90 days, we're going to see a very interesting acquisition.

What else?

What else there?

JCPenney?

What else?

Oh, they're going to kind of have their pick of the litter because, I mean, what if

they kind of the interesting move here the gangster move in my view would be if Shopify purchased Macy's

Macy's has great high-end brands they have fantastic

commerce they have they'd be a friendly acquisition they would be a friendly that's right and Macy's needs to figure out something they have great real estate they could probably spin their real estate into a REIT and pay for you know a third of the acquisition anyways there's going to be for the first time in a while something resembling a bit of a Canadian invasion I think Shopify is going to buy a big American firm.

All right.

That is really it.

I was not expecting that.

I like that.

I'm unexpected.

That's how I keep our third marriage fresh.

That's how I keep it fresh.

I like that one.

I like, you know, someone counted the amounts of times I said interesting on this show.

There's something wrong with that.

23 times.

I don't know.

That was interesting.

This is not just interesting.

This is, this is, hmm, excuse me.

Ah, that's really smart.

I think Shopify is another company, another great company that's really, I like seeing these people that challenge the big

TikTok.

The TikTok challenges the Facebook, the Shopify challenges the Amazon.

There's no one challenging Google except for possibly the Justice Department.

But

I like DuckDuckGo, but not going to happen.

It's not going to happen.

Listen to me.

They're trying.

They're trying.

They're fighting the girls.

The only people who use DuckDuckGo are those people on those zodiacs trying to ram a whaling ship.

I mean, if you're using DuckDuckGo, it means you're just so far out there.

I mean, it's literally

save the whales.

Listen to me.

Search DuckDuckGo.

Listen, two interviews I have later this week.

I'm interviewing Dara Kosrashani and Brian Chesky, not together.

Give me one question for each, and then we're going to go.

Yeah, Dara,

can you understand why

with five or six million people not having access to health insurance with a large portion of those five or six million people,

it ends up not making minimum wage.

Can you understand why people would legitimately want the

FTC or the DOJ to break up a merger that would result in two companies owning 90% of food delivery?

Isn't this just a really bad idea?

Wouldn't any lawmaker that doesn't say no fucking way have their head up their ass if they don't get in the way of your acquisition here?

Isn't this just a no-brainer to not allow this?

Nice.

What about Brian?

Oh, just

that's just super super fascinating around what is, when does he expect to see a return

and why and how will it reshape or recontour the hospitality, specifically the hotel business?

Yeah, he's in better shape than hotels, I think.

Like, I think people are going to go for Airbnbs.

And also, they've hired some really good.

He can variabilize his costs.

If you're at the Marriott Boca Rattan, you can bring your costs down 40%, maybe even 50%.

But even if you board the place up, you still have the mortgage on the place.

You still have to keep it fret.

fret.

You have to clean it.

He can literally, I mean, other than his personnel at headquarters, which my guess is he'll, he'll get a lot of the gunk out and lay off, you know, decent, he already has lay off a bunch of people.

He can variabilize his costs way down.

So, anyways, I think Airbnb is a good thing.

I think more interesting is the people he's hired.

He's hired some, he hired a very interesting executive from Apple to take over for

someone who stepped down, the COO, Belinda, who is quite good.

So I think it's interesting.

Yes, I think he'll be in a very interesting place.

He's a great, he's a really emotional executive, and I don't mean that negatively.

He really does talk about things in a much more human way.

He's groovy.

He's groovy.

Anyway, Scott, Disney World is starting to open again.

Are you going to go?

I'm definitely,

it's not if, it's when my kids, my kids are, you know, nine and twelve year old boys.

You got to take them to Disney and make a lightsaber.

So I'm really excited about Galaxy's Edge.

I've been dying to check that out.

How about you?

Are you going to go back?

No, I never go to Disney World.

Now I'm going to double down on not going to Disney.

My brother's a big Disney person.

No, I'm not.

I'm just don't go to Disney.

My brother's a Disney fan, so he can go.

I don't go.

No, no, no, no, no.

My other brother wishes.

And you don't talk about the Tiffany of your life, the Tiffany Trump of your life?

He's a good guy.

He's a little conservative for my taste, but he's a good guy.

He's a lovely, he's a good father.

How about I say that?

He's a great father.

He's a great husband.

And

his political views are disturbing on many many levels.

That's how it is.

If you had to pick two of the three, you'd probably pick good father and good husband.

He's good.

He is.

That is true.

He's a good golfer, by the way.

This guy sounds like the widest man on earth.

He really is.

Oh, my God.

He's a good guy.

He's whatever.

Okay, he's good.

Does he wear Britannia jeans?

I'm trying to think how he could be anyway.

He wears basic police.

Polos.

Does he wear logo polos?

Corporate logo polos?

He's down that avenue, yes.

But anyway,

I'm not going to talk about my brother.

He's a good guy.

I don't insult my brother.

He is what he is.

That's all.

Where do you think

the fissure in your relationship developed?

When did it happen, Kara?

Talk to me.

When he was a kid.

When you don't have a fissure.

My older brother and I are very much the same personality, very outgoing.

He is not as outgoing.

He's quiet.

He's brilliant.

So

there's no Fissure.

But the Swissers do not have Fissures.

Because you know what this is?

This pandemic is an enormous opportunity to strengthen those types of relationships, Kara.

That's right.

I know that.

I know.

I just don't want to talk about Hillary Clinton with him anymore.

Anyway, anyhow, anywho, I'm going to say that.

Do you know you think he's a good husband and a good father?

Have you said that to him?

I think he does.

I have said that to him.

He should be proud of

his fatherhood and he should be proud of his being a husband.

I mean, at the end of the day, that's kind of priority number one.

I have said that to him.

That is where I focus.

That is where I'm going to focus, and that is where I'm going to stay.

I'm going to go visit him.

He's a sweetheart.

See, whereas my dad?

Thank you for this session.

Whereas my dad?

Outstanding political congruence, but he's not a great father.

He's not a great father.

Well, I would trade the other one.

You give up that?

Yeah.

Yeah.

Yes, yeah.

I like my family.

That was harsh.

I didn't mean that, dad.

Great.

You're.

Yes, you did.

You totally meant it.

Listen,

my mom, as they say, is a piece of work.

And she's out and about in Florida.

She's probably going to Disney World.

She'll come and visit you soon and pass along some coronavirus germs with you if you'd you'd like.

Anyway,

don't forget if there's a story in the news, this took a weird turn.

Don't forget if there's a story in the news and you're curious about and you want to hear our opinion on, email us at pivot at boxmedia.com to be featured on the show.

Scott, please read us out.

Our show today was produced by Rebecca Sinanis.

And this episode was engineered by Fernando Finette.

You sexy beast who I haven't met.

I want that name.

With that name, I would do so much damage.

I have a podcast.

My name is Fernando Finette.

Oh my God.

Thanks to him.

Engineering.

Boom.

So our executive producer is Erica Anderson.

Special thanks to Drew Burroughs and Rebecca Castro.

If you like what you heard, download or subscribe.

And most importantly, reach out to your siblings and tell them you love them.

Repair and strengthen those relationships.

Good intentions, feeling nice things about people are not enough.

If you're a loving, generous person, say loving and generous things.

An enormous opportunity to strengthen the key relationships in our lives.

Scott, you're a handsome man.

Go on.

That's it.

That's all I got.

That is all I got.

Nice smiling ear to ear.

That is all I got.

Nice teeth.

Nice teeth.

There you go.

I do have good teeth.