Ep. #714: Scott Galloway, Fareed Zakaria, Josh Barro

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Speaker 5 Welcome to an HBO podcast from the HBO Late Night Series, Real Time with Bill Maher. Start the clock.

Speaker 1 Thank you, people. How you doing?

Speaker 1 Welcome to rainy Los Angeles. Thank you so much.

Speaker 1 I appreciate it. Thank you very much.

Speaker 1 Thank you. I look any

Speaker 1 I'm always

Speaker 1 very grateful when anybody comes out in the rain in this town.

Speaker 1 It's so funny. I love rain in LA.
The same people who never stop telling you to hydrate, hydrate, hydrate, freak out when water falls from the sky.

Speaker 1 But the good news, the shutdown of the government is over.

Speaker 1 Okay.

Speaker 1 And all that really happened was they canceled some flights and some poor people went hungry, although not hungry enough to eat the leftover airline food.

Speaker 1 But now

Speaker 1 that that's over, we can get back to the important business of government reading a dead pervert's emails.

Speaker 1 We're doing this again.

Speaker 1 Again, Epstein, have you been following the Epstein sorry? I feel like I've seen this movie four times.

Speaker 1 Right? Where they release it, and then there's always more.

Speaker 1 So this week, Democrats release some damn. Of course, each party's going to try to get the other one to say Trump is guilty or not.
Democrats release some stuff, damaging to Trump.

Speaker 1 Then Republicans release their own stack of emails. Does everyone have emails?

Speaker 1 When you get elected, they give you your security badge, the key to your office, and here's your box of Epstein files. And just release them

Speaker 1 endlessly.

Speaker 1 I mean, they're like

Speaker 1 Beetle tracks from the vaults. They just keep coming out and out.
It never ends.

Speaker 1 Apparently,

Speaker 1 they said, according to an AI study of this, I don't know why they had to use AI for this. I can use find on my computer and find somebody's name.

Speaker 1 But apparently, according to AI, Trump in Epstein's emails is mentioned 1,500 times.

Speaker 1 Trump doesn't talk about Trump that much.

Speaker 1 Wow.

Speaker 1 And

Speaker 1 one of them says, no, the court, the president denies this, let's be very clear about that, litigation-wise.

Speaker 1 President denies this, but one of the emails apparently says that Trump, quote, knew about the girls.

Speaker 1 See, this is why Hillary destroyed her server with the hammer. Okay,

Speaker 1 sometimes you just got to go to the hammer, people.

Speaker 1 The hammer.

Speaker 1 Okay, so now we have this ridiculous back and forth. This is what we're going to spend our time at between the parties to say that Trump is either guilty of this or not guilty of this.

Speaker 1 Another one of the emails, Trump denies,

Speaker 1 says that Trump spent hours with one of the girls. A simple explanation.

Speaker 1 It took her that long to explain to him that it's the consumers who pay the price for the tariffs.

Speaker 1 But of course,

Speaker 1 then Republicans point out, and this is true, the bad girl that they're talking about, she herself said she was with Trump for a long time, and he didn't do anything, nothing bad.

Speaker 1 So the Democrats say, well, okay, well then why is Trump so hard, working so hard to try to get these things from not coming out?

Speaker 1 And he is working very hard to do that, including, you know, they met with just Gillane Gillane, whatever her fucking name is.

Speaker 1 Ghillaine Maxwell, who's in prison, you know, she's an enabler to this,

Speaker 1 and put her into a cushier prison where she's apparently getting unlimited toilet paper. This was in the, this is what I'm reading about.

Speaker 1 She's getting unlimited toilet paper. Yeah, why help her? She was part of a pedophile ring.
I mean, Obama was president for eight years.

Speaker 1 I don't remember him ever saying, hey, how's Jared from Subway doing? Is he getting enough toilet paper?

Speaker 6 But,

Speaker 1 but, then the Republicans say, this is also valid, if EPSIM is really running this international sex trafficking ring, how come in 20,000 pages of documents, there's not one email about running a sex trafficking ring?

Speaker 1 I mean, can you really keep all this in your head?

Speaker 1 Is today Christie with the Prince and Candy with the Duke, or Candy with the Prince and Christie with the Duke?

Speaker 1 Somebody's got to write this shit down.

Speaker 1 But I love that. This is so Trump.
Now, what he did today was that Trump is instructing the Justice Department to look into Clinton, Bill Clinton's involvement with Epstein.

Speaker 1 I love this, using the Epstein files to distract from the Epstein files.

Speaker 1 Trump said, I will not rest until I get to the middle of this.

Speaker 1 And of course,

Speaker 1 this comes at a terrible time for the president because he's got all the big issues, you know, some of the blame for the shutdown. And also, you know, prices.

Speaker 1 He keeps saying prices have never been lower. Well, you can lie to people about a lot of things, but they know how much money they have, okay? They know what the prices are in the stores.

Speaker 1 Everything is up. He's lowering taffets now on coffee because that was out of control, but produce, bananas, cucumbers are so high now that women are having sex with their husbands.

Speaker 1 It's.

Speaker 1 So his approval rating has now dropped into the 30s. You know,

Speaker 1 if it gets any lower, I don't know what's going to happen, but I wouldn't want to be Venezuelan.

Speaker 1 You know,

Speaker 1 we've now

Speaker 1 killed 80 people in small boats for what the military says. They're not sure what those people were doing, and we just murdered them.
There must be easier ways to get a Nobel Peace Prize.

Speaker 1 So I say, all right, we've got a great show.

Speaker 1 Karin Zakari and Josh Barra are here, but first up, here, the professor at NYU Stern School of Business and author of the number one best-selling book, Notes on Being a Man, Scott Galloway.

Speaker 1 Scott, well, look at you all dressed up for me. All right.

Speaker 6 Scott, all right.

Speaker 1 I noticed you didn't wear a tie when you're on the panel.

Speaker 7 Everything else is dirty, Bill.

Speaker 1 But listen,

Speaker 1 I read your book, very interesting stuff. You've been on this case for a long time, ahead of a lot of people.
It's sort of a cottage industry now talking about men in crisis. Just tell me briefly why,

Speaker 1 not that it's a competition, but give me the statistics on why you think men are more in crisis than women.

Speaker 7 If you walk into a morgue and there's five people who died by suicide, four are men.

Speaker 7 We have an opiate and a homeless crisis, but to be more accurate, we have a male opiate and male homeless crisis, three times as likely to be homeless or addicted, 12 times as likely to be incarcerated.

Speaker 7 So, you know, but I want to be clear, it's not a competition because we can still recognize the immense challenges women still face. They go to 77 cents on the dollar when they have kids.

Speaker 7 Non-white, black and Latino family wealth is about $20,000 versus $160,000 for white families. So, you know, empathy is not a zerosome game.

Speaker 7 We can recognize the immense challenges non-whites and women still face while recognizing that no group has fallen further faster than young men.

Speaker 7 And the country and women aren't going to continue to flourish as long as young men are flailing.

Speaker 1 Yeah, I think that's one of your big points, is that we are kind of, it's true, everybody is suffering, but we're kind of stuck in a past paradigm where we don't say it about the men as much.

Speaker 1 And you're kind of shining a light on that and talking about, I mean, just for example, the number of men, I didn't realize this until I read the book, the percentage who live at home still, live with their parents.

Speaker 1 What are those numbers?

Speaker 7 It's about 30% of men under the age of 25. One in three are still at home.
One in five are still at home

Speaker 7 by the age of 30. So

Speaker 1 is that economic or emotional or both? Yes.

Speaker 6 It's

Speaker 1 one,

Speaker 7 men aren't, I mean, effectively what you have is they're up against this indomitable enemy, and that is 20% or 40% of the SP is now 10 companies whose primary mission is to get you as glued to a screen for as long as possible.

Speaker 7 Any minute they can keep you on a screen longer is billions of dollars. And a young man's brain, which prefrontal cortex is less mature, is more susceptible to that need for DOPA.

Speaker 7 So, what we've literally done, Bill, is unwittingly built an economy which is dependent upon our ability to evolve a new species of asocial, asexual males.

Speaker 7 And what you have is big tech, who is not our friend, is trying to sequester people, especially young people, especially young men, from the most important thing in their life, and that is relationships.

Speaker 1 So, essentially

Speaker 1 hornier? I mean,

Speaker 1 if I had a phone, I mean, you know, I had Playboys that we buried in the woods

Speaker 1 that

Speaker 1 really showed nothing. I mean, and we were very excited about that.

Speaker 1 Doesn't it soup them up even more to see this unknown?

Speaker 7 No, it reduces their mojo. I think that everybody needs a code, and I think young men would really benefit from a code that they used to get from the military or church or school or their family.

Speaker 7 But I think, loosely speaking, a code of being a provider.

Speaker 7 In a capitalist society, you need to have people who are economically viable. Men are disproportionately evaluated based on their economic viability.
They have been for a long time.

Speaker 7 They will be for a long time, too. The whole point of being prosperous is such that you can move to protection.
The most masculine jobs, firemen, cop, military, they're in the job of protection.

Speaker 7 And then the one that gets the most pushback is procreation. And that is, I think, we have demonized and pathologized a young man's desire to have a relationship in sex.

Speaker 7 And the bottom line is, we need to embrace it. It's a wonderful thing.

Speaker 7 When men are willing to take risks, develop a kindness practice, show resilience, dress better for God's sake, shower, work out,

Speaker 7 these things are really important and they teach people, young men, the most important thing in life, and that's the following. your ability to endure rejection.

Speaker 7 If you want to score above your weight class economically or romantically, then

Speaker 7 get ready to get out a big spoon and eat shit. Your ability to endure no, the only way you ever get to amazing yeses is with a lot of no's.

Speaker 7 And my biggest fear about porn, which is increasingly becoming synthetic and more lifelike, is it reduces men's mojo to get out of the house.

Speaker 7 Or put another way, the less time you spend watching porn, the more likely you are to be the star of your own porn.

Speaker 1 Yeah, that's true.

Speaker 1 I'm very glad I grew up in the era I did. Yeah.

Speaker 1 And, you know, I was very shy as a kid. I mean, I could have had such a better adolescence if I could have talked to a girl.

Speaker 1 And, you know, I read books about people who overcame their fears. You know, he was afraid of lightning, so he tied himself to a tree during a storm.
You know, stuff like that.

Speaker 1 Really, all these things that people do, snakes, spider, whatever you're afraid of. The number one thing men are afraid of is girls.

Speaker 1 It's not fucking lightning. It's girls.

Speaker 1 It's just there's something about that rejection of going up to somebody, like you say, cold. And you just have to get through that.
And I feel like we are further from that than ever.

Speaker 1 I mean, kids don't even want to answer the phone.

Speaker 1 They find that a little too alarming unless you text first. 40.

Speaker 4 40.

Speaker 1 Really? Because that's passive because you answer, nobody sees you, they don't see your reaction, you don't have to come up with a conversation.

Speaker 7 100%. 45% of men 18 to 24 have never asked a woman out in person.
63% of men under the age of 30 are not even pursuing a relationship.

Speaker 7 And if you think about the most rewarding things in your life, I mean the things that really matter, they are essentially relationships. What do they all have in common? They're really damn hard.

Speaker 7 And unfortunately, big tech, the most deep-pocketed, godlike technology in the world, is trying to convince young men that they can have a reasonable facsimile of life online.

Speaker 7 Why go through the pecking order of trying to establish friendships when you got Reddit in Discord?

Speaker 7 Why put on a tie and navigate the corporate world when you can trade crypto or stocks on Robinhood or Coinbase?

Speaker 7 And why would you go through the effort, the expense, and the potential rejection and humiliation of establishing a romantic relationship when you have porn?

Speaker 7 I believe, slowly but surely, we're going to start to see fewer and fewer young men out in the wild because they're going to decide to sequester.

Speaker 7 And if I could say anything to young men, it's that the anxiety and depression you will eventually feel in your basement sequestered from other mammals is far greater than the fear of anything that lays outside of that room for you.

Speaker 7 Get out of the fucking basement, get off your phone.

Speaker 1 I read in the paper today that 40% of younger women want to leave America permanently. I thought it was because of Trump, but apparently it's this.

Speaker 1 I guess it's somewhat of both. But I mean, that's an amazing statistic.

Speaker 7 So, if you go, I don't have data on this, this is just anecdotal, but it is true.

Speaker 7 When I'm out and I meet women at a drinking or a social setting, essentially the narrative is something like this: I'm here, I'm single, I'm ready to mingle, and I look amazing.

Speaker 1 They're saying this to you?

Speaker 1 Crazy, right? No, I'm just asking.

Speaker 1 I asked them. I'm just asking.
I asked them. Oh, I see.
You want to roll over? It's a survey. I get it.

Speaker 1 I'm doing a survey. But

Speaker 7 men aren't approaching them. And so you basically have this lack of mating.
And what you have is essentially, I mean,

Speaker 7 distinctive what the Atlantic, the New York Times will tell you, 80% of women still expect the man to initiate romantic content. Yes, they do.
And one of the things that

Speaker 7 one of the things we as men really have to train our boys or give them the skill around is one to endure rejection, but also to figure out a way way to express romantic interest while making that person feel safe.

Speaker 7 And guess what?

Speaker 7 If I say to someone, hey, I'd like to be your friend, I'd like to roll, or I'd like to grab a football game, and they say no, or if you approach someone and say, you know what, let's grab coffee and they say no, guess what?

Speaker 7 You're both going to be fine. Take those shots.

Speaker 1 But don't say grab a football game.

Speaker 1 You don't want to grab a football game.

Speaker 7 No, I meant for guys,

Speaker 7 establishing one out of four men can't name a best friend. One out of seven men doesn't have a single friend.
And a gateway to better relationships, quite frankly, is oftentimes friendships.

Speaker 7 And without a romantic relationship in the guard, there's this cartoon of a woman in her 30s who didn't find romantic love. What a tragedy.
Guess what? She's just fine, Bill.

Speaker 7 Men need relationships more than women. Widows are happier after their husband dies.

Speaker 7 Widowers are less happy after their husband dies.

Speaker 7 If a man hasn't coabitated or married a woman with, or married a woman by the time he's 30, there's a one in three chance he's going to be a substance abuser.

Speaker 1 The reality is

Speaker 1 I am not a substance abuser, okay?

Speaker 7 Men, this is the reality. Men need relationships more than women.

Speaker 1 Well, okay,

Speaker 1 right, but not everyone has to be that kind of relationship. I mean, I know you say provide, protect, and procreate.
There's a lot of people who don't procreate anymore.

Speaker 1 And we're not second-class citizens. And we, I mean, can I not be a man because I didn't, like, make a baby with a lady?

Speaker 7 No, look, kids aren't for everybody. I lived in New York through the majority of my 30s single.

Speaker 7 I found it at the end to be what I call an empty experience, but as far as empty experiences go, it was pretty good.

Speaker 7 But I have found purpose in having kids. Not everyone has to have kids.
There is paternal and fraternal love you can give to all sorts of people. And quite frankly, I've been on this show six times.

Speaker 7 I don't know you well, but I know you. I think you're a little full of shit because you talk about not having kids.

Speaker 7 Paternal and fraternal love from a man is one of the most rewarding things you can do. I don't care if it's the makeup artist or your producers.
These people have been with you 25 or 30 years.

Speaker 7 You have kids, they're just wearing Time Warner badges.

Speaker 1 I agree.

Speaker 1 I've never never had kids, but I'd love to raise a girlfriend. Anyway,

Speaker 1 the final thing I love that you said in the book, Tip to Men, drink more.

Speaker 1 Because safetyism has, you know, this is one of the problems I have with certain people who make everything about safety. Safety is important.
You can't overdo drinking.

Speaker 1 It is also, as you point out, a lubricant to get to that place where you are talking to other people and socializing. It's not to excess, but yes,

Speaker 1 drinking a little bit, maybe sometimes a little too much when you're adolescent, is probably better than sitting in that basement.

Speaker 7 The second worst thing to happen to young people is remote work. One in three relationships begin at work.

Speaker 7 This is where you find friends, mentors, and mates, and especially young men, need the guardrails. of a workplace.

Speaker 7 But in my view, the worst thing that's happened to young people is the anti-alcohol movement. I've had Huberman on, who I'm a a big fan of, and Anteon.

Speaker 7 And my point is that the risks to your 25-year-old liver are risk, are dwarfed by the risk of social isolation. In some, think of all the amazing relationships you've had in your life and be honest.

Speaker 1 Did alcohol play a role?

Speaker 7 In some, get out, drink more, and make a series of bad decisions that might pay off.

Speaker 1 Yes!

Speaker 1 All right, great.

Speaker 1 Great book. Great to see you, Scott, as always.
Scott Galloway, let's lead our panel.

Speaker 1 Hey.

Speaker 1 That's funny.

Speaker 1 Hey, guys. Okay, here's a contributing opinion writer for the New York Times and host of the Central Air podcast.
Josh Barrow is my witness.

Speaker 4 Hello.

Speaker 1 How are you?

Speaker 1 And he's the host of CNN's Fareed Zakari's GPS and the New York Times best-selling author of Age of Revolutions, now out in paperback and with the new afterword. Fareed Zakari is over here.

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Speaker 6 I mean, I really think it would help the conversation.

Speaker 1 I've always been on that page, and yes, you can.

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Speaker 1 They mixed up the glasses, and the congressman wound up with the Jack Daniels. And of course, Seth had the water, and we had to fix that.
Wow.

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Speaker 1 All right, so I want to get to your article that you put out today. I thought it was great called Why Democrats Keep Flailing.

Speaker 1 I really can't argue with the premise, but also I have to point out on the other side, I think this was the single worst week for the president and his administration.

Speaker 1 I mean, not only is he going to get part of the blame, and we can discuss this in a bit, for the shutdown, he looked like he didn't care to a lot of people whether they ate or not or whether their insurance premiums go up.

Speaker 1 Prices, as I said in the monologue, are higher. You can bag dad bob your way out of that just so long.

Speaker 1 People know how much money they have and how much they're spending. It's the one thing you really can't lie about.
Marjorie Taylor Greene, you know, a pretty big Trump fan.

Speaker 1 She was here a couple of weeks ago, still, but she used the term gaslight. You can't gaslight people.

Speaker 1 I've heard the term Trump fatigue this week.

Speaker 1 And then on top of this, the Epstein thing, which was always, you know, these people got it in their heads a long time ago that there's a pedophile ring that runs the world and you can't get it out of their conspiracy-minded brains.

Speaker 1 Is it possible Trump is a lame duck at this moment?

Speaker 6 Well, I think it is really interesting what's happening because for so long, it seemed as though there was nothing Trump could do that would affect his base, right?

Speaker 6 He famously said, I could shoot somebody on Fifth Avenue and I won't lose a vote.

Speaker 6 And it looked like that was the case. It seems that there's at least not cracks, maybe the beginnings of some tremors.

Speaker 6 And I wonder why, I've wondered whether, because I'd add to what you said, immigration, right? He went on

Speaker 6 Fox and said, you know, legal immigration is good, and that caused a huge problem. So it makes me wonder, you know, some parts of the

Speaker 6 two pillars of the MAGA base are basically conspiracy theories are good and foreigners are bad.

Speaker 6 And what Trump did is he basically has found himself caught in the middle of this conspiracy theory thing. He had promoted it.

Speaker 6 I mean, it promoted the idea that there was a conspiracy theory about Kennedy's assassination, Robert Kennedy's assassination, Martin Luther King's assassination.

Speaker 6 He promised, I'm going to release all the files. Well, he did.
There wasn't anything. And this.
And this one now is the...

Speaker 1 So this was one of his big promises, because

Speaker 1 one of the big pillars of the MAGA movement was QAnon.

Speaker 1 They're still around, right? QAnon? Right. Okay.

Speaker 1 So that's the thing. If you've been in the world, that pedophiles are running the world.

Speaker 1 And the Epstein thing gives, there's enough smoke there to think this is the fire.

Speaker 1 But it was Trump himself who said, I'm going to let you see all this.

Speaker 1 They feel betrayed, even the true believers.

Speaker 4 I'm not a conspiracy theory guy. Like, I still think Epstein killed himself.
And I think, you know, the official story actually makes a lot of sense.

Speaker 4 Like, the Bureau of Prisons was incompetent and didn't care sufficiently about the well-being of people in its custody, and Epstein's life had been destroyed.

Speaker 4 Why wouldn't he have killed himself? But I have been fascinated by Trump's desperation to keep at least some of this material out. Obviously we're seeing some of it.

Speaker 4 I don't, because we also know so much derogatory information about Donald Trump's character already, like including even in the press coverage of his dealings with Epstein in the 90s and the womenizing that they were clearly doing together in Palm Beach and that letter that the Wall Street Journal found with his signature as the pubic hair on the on the woman for for Epstein.

Speaker 4 It's sort of like, are we going to learn that Trump treats women terribly, that Trump sexually assaults women?

Speaker 4 I mean, he's on tape, on the Access Hollywood tape, saying that he grabs them by the pussy.

Speaker 4 I mean, I guess the one thing could be if there was something with a minor, but then one of the things that's in one of these Epstein emails this week is Trump never got a massage. And so

Speaker 4 I don't think that's in there. And so if it's just more like Trump terrible with women stuff, I mean, the electorate already elected him twice in full knowledge of that.

Speaker 6 But the problem is, you're exactly right.

Speaker 6 it's probably all embarrassing stuff, but there isn't this grand conspiracy. But this movement has been told there's grand conspiracy about everything, right? So I agree with you.

Speaker 6 In general, I think my view on conspiracy theories is

Speaker 6 mostly incompetence is a better explanation of most of this weird stuff than conspiracy theories.

Speaker 6 People just are stupid and they make mistakes, and particularly in government, and people tend to want to believe that there's some evil machinations by the elites, but it probably is just incompetence.

Speaker 1 It's yes.

Speaker 1 These

Speaker 1 for people who haven't followed the story closely this week, these emails that came out now were all post-their breakup.

Speaker 1 They had a breakup. This is kind of important to the story, I think, because

Speaker 1 Jeffrey Epstein was convicted. Now, the Democratic prosecutor, he was a Democratic donor, some people say that matters, was very easy on him.

Speaker 1 He probably should have got a lot more, but this is around 2008, 2009. He was arrested.
He got like probation, home confinement. They just charged him with prostitution.

Speaker 1 I mean, these are underage girls. Somebody else could have had a way worse time of it.
Okay, nobody dropped him.

Speaker 1 All those people, the Bill Gateses of the world, they kept being friends with him, except for Trump. Now, maybe that's because he was stealing the masseas from the Mar-a-Lago.

Speaker 1 Trump said that himself.

Speaker 1 Okay, but here are some of the lines from we heard from this week that these are from Epstein.

Speaker 1 And again, this is post-breakup, and I don't think Epstein liked it, that Trump wasn't talking to him anymore. I'm the one able to take him down.

Speaker 1 The dog that hasn't barked is Trump. I know how dirty Donald is.
I mean, it's like from a Sherlock Holmes book. You know,

Speaker 1 I know the dog that hasn't barked is strong.

Speaker 1 And when Megan Kelly said this week, well, Epstein wasn't technically a pedophile

Speaker 1 because, you know, they were like 15 instead of five.

Speaker 1 When that's where your defenders are going, let's be easy on the pedophiles and not to cast dispersions on people who go out with 15-year-olds.

Speaker 1 That's not a, I mean, I don't know, but I feel like this, and the people who he had in,

Speaker 1 he brought in Lauren Boebert to the situation room because they got a situation

Speaker 1 to try to strike, because it's her, Nancy Mace, who's been here, and Nancy Mace is a victim of sexual abuse, and Marjorie Taylor Greene, three of his biggest fans politically.

Speaker 1 But women, they understand about this stuff like we can never.

Speaker 1 And they do not want to give it up.

Speaker 6 Well, what you notice is,

Speaker 6 you know,

Speaker 6 to confirm what

Speaker 6 you're suggesting, this is something that clearly Trump is nervous about. You know, with all the other stuff, I think he thinks he has his base.
He has this extraordinary ability.

Speaker 6 He can campaign on the idea that China is the evil empire about to take over the world, and he comes into office and says, Xin Jinping is my greatest friend. We're going to get on great with China.

Speaker 6 And his base is like, yeah, whatever, right?

Speaker 6 But on this issue, he seems very nervous, right? He's trying to deal with it.

Speaker 4 I really don't think it's his big problem this week, though. I mean, because you know, this is like, I know how dirty Donald is.
We all know how dirty Donald is.

Speaker 4 And like, we've, you know, we've learned so many terrible things about him over the years. But why? Just keep getting forgiven.
I think what's different this week.

Speaker 1 Why try to squash it so much then? Why he gave

Speaker 1 Gheline

Speaker 1 gave her a cushier prison.

Speaker 1 They took two months to not seat this woman who won this Democrat in Arizona because she was going to be the 218th vote to make Mike Johnson make the Justice Department release.

Speaker 1 And by the way, after all these times, there's still more? What the fuck is left? I don't get it.

Speaker 4 I'm sure there's something he really doesn't want out.

Speaker 4 What I'm skeptical about is whether it would fundamentally change his political position, because I'm sure he really didn't want the Axis Hollywood tape out, and everyone thought that was going to destroy him.

Speaker 4 and it didn't. I think what's changed in the last month and because you know his poll numbers really started deteriorating about two weeks into the shutdown.

Speaker 4 And I think the subtext to this is the deteriorating economy and the fact that people are dissatisfied about prices and about and they were dissatisfied about the food stamps interruption.

Speaker 4 And I think Donald Trump did a full four-year term with three years of a really good economy and then the fourth year where the economy got turned upside down for reasons that were outside of his control.

Speaker 4 We've never really seen what politics look like for Donald Trump at a time where people really feel that the economy is underperforming and he's failing to manage it correctly.

Speaker 4 And I think what's going to happen, what's starting to happen, is that all the stuff people would cut him slack for when they were like, we elected this business guy to be the business president and he's doing a good job of that, if it looks like he's failing to take care of that, that's when people start to care if he tears down the east wing of the White House or any of these other scandals.

Speaker 4 I think that's his fundamental problem, which is why he does seem to be panicking this week about the price stuff, finding any way that he can to address that.

Speaker 6 The funny thing about that is he's saying, okay, prices are rising, so we're cutting tariffs because tariffs, cutting the tariffs, will lower the prices.

Speaker 6 But when he put the tariffs on, he vociferously argued it was not going to raise prices. So wait,

Speaker 6 if it didn't raise prices, why are you cutting them to lower prices? You know, it's like sometimes the math doesn't work.

Speaker 1 All right. So one of the big stories

Speaker 1 we covered last week is

Speaker 1 kudos to Nancy Pelosi for stepping down. Stepping down is one of the great traditions in American history.

Speaker 1 George Washington.

Speaker 1 I see Ken Burns' big documentary on the revolution war starting Sunday. I can't wait to watch it.
I'm sure it's going to be awesome.

Speaker 1 George Washington could have been the king.

Speaker 1 No, I'm stepping down. You got to step down.
Well, this memo has not reached everybody in Congress.

Speaker 6 If Joe Biden had done that,

Speaker 6 he would be remembered as a hero.

Speaker 1 He's number one on my list there, but also

Speaker 1 among Democrats who, you know, the Eleanor Holmes Norton, who is 88,

Speaker 1 clear signs of cognitive decline, they say.

Speaker 1 She was originally scammed out of $404,000.

Speaker 1 Steny Hoyer, 86.

Speaker 1 These are people all who are not going to go away. Maxine Waters, 87.
And I've always said, you know, it's a case by case.

Speaker 1 I hate ageism. But, you know,

Speaker 1 this is the case.

Speaker 1 James Clyburn, 85. Chuck Grassley,

Speaker 1 we don't count that high. I don't know how all that.

Speaker 1 It's not just

Speaker 1 Democrats, but mostly them. So we put out this pamphlet called Knowing When It's Time.

Speaker 1 This is for politicians. Knowing when it's time to get out of the way.
Would you like to hear some of the ones... Okay, well, for example, there's

Speaker 1 when you were first elected, was your state still a territory?

Speaker 1 These are ways you know

Speaker 1 it's really your time.

Speaker 1 Is your biggest donation from the pudding industry? This is.

Speaker 1 Does all this talk about woke make you sleepy?

Speaker 1 Do you remember where you were when Garfield got shot?

Speaker 1 Have you ever given a speech from the back of a train?

Speaker 1 Have you ever been accused of having sex with slaves? Well, right.

Speaker 1 Blueing into applause, very rare, but when the speaker bangs the gavel, do you yell, come in?

Speaker 1 And

Speaker 1 do you refer to Meta-Musil as the nuclear oxygen? All right.

Speaker 1 So

Speaker 1 let's get into your issue, because at the top of your article today, you say that the shutdown you see is a defeat for Democrats.

Speaker 1 I'm going to push back on that, but before we get into that exactly, let me quote more from your article. You talk about the Democrats.
And again, I can't argue with any of this.

Speaker 1 You said the fact that they didn't get what they wanted, and they did not, specifically, Again, I think there's another argument to be made, but they did not get what they wanted.

Speaker 1 They said they wanted to force him with the shutdown to go back to the COVID era prices for Obamacare. They're going to go up.
Didn't get it. They just got promised a vote, which is meaningless.

Speaker 1 You say

Speaker 1 the Democrats promise a lot, but all you get is bloated bureaucracy. I agree with that, and inept execution.
I agree with that. Affordability.

Speaker 1 is really worse in government. If that's your issue, affordability, it's worse here and in New York and in places that are Democratic-run.
These are all true things. They didn't solve the...

Speaker 1 We spent $24 billion, you point out, here in California on the homeless issue, and it didn't get any better. I love the point you raised.

Speaker 1 I never even thought about this, but I see it every time I'm in New York. You walk down the sidewalk, it's all this scaffolding.

Speaker 1 And I didn't realize you said, no other city.

Speaker 6 No other city in the world.

Speaker 1 You walk through London or Paris. You never see that, right?

Speaker 6 And they have buildings from the 14th century.

Speaker 1 Somehow, somehow.

Speaker 1 I'm always walking through this scary, this scary fucking tunnel in New York. Always like you're in this thing, and it's like a haunted house.

Speaker 6 Well, and I'll tell you what happened because it's a wonderful example of how liberal governance works.

Speaker 6 I think in 1980,

Speaker 6 a cornice fell on a Columbia student, very sad situation. She died.
So they decided, okay, we're going to put these elaborate safety rules in.

Speaker 6 And now, of course, there's a whole industry of contractors, consultants, builders. And guess what? Everything takes five times as long as it has to because it is legally required.
But safetyism.

Speaker 6 Exactly. So you've created the safety industrial complex

Speaker 1 in New York, you know.

Speaker 1 But here's the alternative on the idea that Trump

Speaker 1 is not the winner here on

Speaker 1 the shutdown. shutdown.
I think what the Democrats were trying to do was make health care an issue, which it kind of for some reason has never really been.

Speaker 1 It's the one issue where the public gives the Democrats higher marks and they had to get people to notice. This is who's doing this to you.
This is who is going to make your premiums go up.

Speaker 1 So it may not look good for the Democrats now. I think in the future it will.

Speaker 4 No, I think the Democrats won the shutdown. I think that, you know, you can see it in the president's poll numbers, which are much worse than they were at the start of the shutdown.

Speaker 4 I think it's partly the health care issue that you raised.

Speaker 4 And it's also food stamps which I think Democrats didn't quite realize they were going to make an issue through this but because the president made this choice to try not to pay out food stamps.

Speaker 4 Because you know if the president wants to do things he does them. He tears down the East Wing.

Speaker 4 He's done all of these things to move money around within the federal budget to try to pay for programs that weren't authorized.

Speaker 4 But on food stamps his view was no we're going to make this painful for Democrats. We're going to say we're not sending food.

Speaker 4 They even told states that they weren't allowed to make the food stamp payments with their own money.

Speaker 4 They sent memos to them and said, if you started doing this, you have to go claw the money back from those people. And so people saw that, and that's been very unpopular.

Speaker 4 And so I think that they, you know, to the extent that you can win a shutdown, and you know what we've seen historically, we've only had government shutdowns since the Carter administration, because Carter had this persnickety memo saying if the appropriations run out, you have to close the government.

Speaker 4 They used to just keep running before that. There have been eight of them.
They have never produced a major policy concession for the party that was demanding something.

Speaker 4 Neither Republicans nor Democrats have ever made this tactic work.

Speaker 1 Then why do they do it?

Speaker 4 Because people are mad and because Democratic voters are mad, they're like, you know, well, why don't you stop him?

Speaker 4 And the thing is, like, that's why you have to win elections, so that you can make a public policy.

Speaker 1 But I think that, you know,

Speaker 4 they weren't, there was so much demand for a shutdown, not just from like the quote-unquote base, but even from Democratic elected officials who have been driven insane by the way that Trump has behaved even differently from his first term, sometimes in ways that are mostly of importance to people within Washington.

Speaker 4 He's done things to do with the appropriations process that outrage Democratic senators and members of Congress that haven't really connected with voters.

Speaker 4 But that's why they have no patience whatsoever. And so I think they needed to show like this tool is available.
We have to check and see if it works.

Speaker 6 But look, I hope you're right. And I think the point you made is really important, which is getting health care on the agenda would be important because I think, you know,

Speaker 6 behind all this tactical stuff is here's the reality.

Speaker 6 What the Trump budget, what this big, beautiful bill budget will do, the Congressional Budget Office says it will throw 11 million people off health care. It is going to take people off Medicaid.

Speaker 6 You have an extraordinary health crisis that is coming because these people are being pulled off.

Speaker 6 They've put all kinds of work requirements, which is all bullshit, because only about 8% of people who get Medicaid actually are not working. 92% of the people are working.

Speaker 6 And it is going to exacerbate a problem that Obamacare had actually begun to stop, which was the wide gap in America between health outcomes depending on whether you're rich or poor.

Speaker 6 So in the United States, you're talking about men with Scott, the men in the top 1% of the income distribution have 15 years extra life expectancy than men in the bottom 1%.

Speaker 6 There is no other civilized country in the world where you have this kind of gap. Obamacare had begun to close that gap very substantially.
It's going to start widening again.

Speaker 6 Obamacare might actually unravel because what's going to happen is the young and healthy people won't buy insurance.

Speaker 1 Well now we're going to have Trump care.

Speaker 1 He says, you know, I can't believe this. He said, and basically I'll just go to the bottom line.
We're going to go around the insurance companies. We waited 10 years for this.
This is the big idea.

Speaker 1 He's just going to give people $2,000 to everybody. It sounds like it's not just the people who need it.
Just like everybody's going to get two grand, and then you get to buy the health care you want.

Speaker 1 This can't work, right?

Speaker 4 Because not if you get cancer.

Speaker 1 What?

Speaker 1 What will happen is, yeah, exactly.

Speaker 6 What will happen is you basically will have young, healthy people will buy very cheap health care. Right.

Speaker 6 The things like Obamacare and Medicare.

Speaker 1 Do the young have to in this plan?

Speaker 6 You can get very cheap planning.

Speaker 1 No, but is he making the young people?

Speaker 1 No plan works in healthcare unless you you make the young buy it when they don't need it so that later on in life, looking ahead, kids,

Speaker 1 then it will be there for you.

Speaker 1 This is how a society works.

Speaker 4 The thing though

Speaker 4 where I'm a little bit skeptical about the strength of this specific issue for Democrats in this election is that the premiums are going to go up and people are going to get letters in the mail that'll say like your United Healthcare premium is going up.

Speaker 4 Yes. And so for them to draw the connection that actually that was Trump who caused this private company to charge you more for this thing, I think that message is hard to get through.

Speaker 4 And then also the subsidy levels that we're going back to that Democrats are decrying Republicans over, these are the original levels that were written into the law under Obama that were supposed to be sufficient to get people to go out and buy health insurance.

Speaker 4 And what we found was that people were actually not as interested in buying health insurance at this price as we thought they were going to be.

Speaker 4 People find it to be a bad value, in significant part because we have the highest prices in the world, like a sixth of our economy is healthcare now.

Speaker 4 And so when you show people, yeah, you pay, you know, whatever it is, $24,000 a year for dual coverage for a couple, which is what you're looking at in New York from a mid-level plan, and then you have a deductible of several thousand dollars on top of that.

Speaker 4 I mean, of course people think that's a terrible deal. And even when it's subsidized and they're paying a fraction of that, people still find it shockingly expensive.
And so I think, you know,

Speaker 4 I think this issue is partly less

Speaker 4 powerful for Democrats as they expect because the offering they've spent so much time putting together, just even at the subsidized price, is not that attractive.

Speaker 6 Look, the American healthcare system is crazy, and not to get too wonky about it, but your basic point

Speaker 6 is the right one, which is no insurance system can work if the people who don't really need the insurance opt out.

Speaker 6 Like, if you say in a car insurance,

Speaker 6 all the older middle-aged drivers don't have to pay,

Speaker 6 only the young men have to pay. You can't have an insurance system like that.
It has to be pooled risk. And if you give people the money, they'll opt out.

Speaker 1 Yeah. And also, on the healthcare front, we're all going to get not free, but greatly reduced Ozempic.
That was.

Speaker 1 And that

Speaker 1 it's popular.

Speaker 1 Americans have been waiting forever for the magic pill that let them escape the rigors of eating right and

Speaker 1 exercising, and they finally have it now. I wouldn't take it.
I mean, what the effects are. Well, you don't eat it.

Speaker 1 You are quite thin.

Speaker 1 You look quite thin.

Speaker 1 Yes,

Speaker 4 I've been on Wagovi for two years and I've lost almost 40 pounds. Well, there.

Speaker 1 Should we clap? Okay, well, how does that work? No. Yeah, it works.
No, no, no.

Speaker 1 It isn't cheap. No, no.

Speaker 1 You clap for achievement. You clap when people say, that's not an achievement.
I'm married 40 years. That's an achievement.
People,

Speaker 1 yeah, that's amazing.

Speaker 1 But okay, but here's the deal. Trump, I've said this many times.
He is the master at picking out these little issues, like tips for waitresses.

Speaker 1 You know, pick out 1%, 2% of the population that's going to go nuts about this. And this is a great issue for that, if that's your method of winning votes, because people do like this stuff.

Speaker 1 It is kind of the magic bullet. Now, maybe it'll be a magic bullet with no side effects.
I've never seen a drug like that.

Speaker 1 There are people like Gillian Michaels who say all you have to do is read the website.

Speaker 1 Side effects, thyroid tumors, gallbladder problems, pancreatis, kidney issues, vision loss, stomach problems. It's a class action lawsuit about stomach paralysis.

Speaker 1 I assume you've had none of these problems, and most people probably have not.

Speaker 1 But it is a bit of,

Speaker 1 I mean, if

Speaker 1 I mean.

Speaker 4 You have to weigh that against the huge health benefits that come from not being overweight or obese.

Speaker 1 Sure, exactly.

Speaker 4 And then they also keep finding new additional benefits, you know, that people are less likely to have kidney disease and various other things.

Speaker 4 It really seems to produce tremendously improved outcomes for a lot of people. And, you know, I don't think...

Speaker 1 Drug addiction, right?

Speaker 4 I don't think that, yes, it helps with drug addiction for some people. And so I don't think this is a small issue for one or two percent of people.

Speaker 4 I mean, probably more than half the country is a good candidate for these drugs. And they've already been coming down a lot in price.

Speaker 4 When I went on it a little more than two years ago, the price, the effective cash price was about $1,100 a month. It's come down already to $500.

Speaker 4 It's supposed to go down to $350 under this plan that Trump has announced. And you have two drug companies that make the drugs, so they have to compete with each other on price.

Speaker 4 And as that comes down, it's going to come into the reach of more and more people. And it's also going to be more reasonable for the health insurance companies to cover it.

Speaker 4 Because one of the things they've been worrying about is going to cost a fortune if we have to put a lot of people on this drug that's six or seven thousand dollars a year.

Speaker 4 But when it comes down to two thousand dollars a year or something like that, it starts to look a lot more cost-effective.

Speaker 6 Look, of course, you want to make sure that the side effects are not too onerous, but

Speaker 6 as you said, the initial results are really quite extraordinary. I mean,

Speaker 6 you can attest to that better than anyone, but

Speaker 6 so much of America's health problem is obesity that if you actually, if you have this drug that brings down obesity, it actually could be a magic drug for healthcare costs as well.

Speaker 6 Yes, because so much of the cost is dealing with the consequences of obesity.

Speaker 1 Oh, I made that point and paid the price.

Speaker 1 All right, it's time for new rules.

Speaker 1 Okay.

Speaker 1 Now that Berkeley police have arrested a man who hid in a sorority house, watched the women in their communal shower, and stole their underwear, they have to tell us how handsome he was.

Speaker 1 That way, when we make the movie about this, we'll know if it was funny or scary.

Speaker 1 Oh.

Speaker 1 Okay, scary it is.

Speaker 1 No, no, people who say, I'm listening to what the universe is trying to tell me, have to understand something. That's called thinking.

Speaker 1 The far end of our observable universe is 93 billion light years away, so it's probably indifferent to whether you quit your job at the coffee beer.

Speaker 1 You know how I know this? Because I'm standing right next to you and I don't give a shit.

Speaker 1 General condolences to the family of the man who died falling into the Grand Canyon last week, but you have to admit, it is kind of a big hole to miss.

Speaker 1 I mean

Speaker 1 I can see twisting your ankle in rough terrain on a hike, but who goes to the Grand Canyon and says, I didn't see it there.

Speaker 1 It's a grand canyon. Why do you think they say the views are breathtaking?

Speaker 1 New rule, Taylor Swift must not wear her highest hooker shoes when going out with her shortest friend.

Speaker 1 This doesn't look like two friends going out to dinner. It looks like Animal Planet video of Predator and Prey.

Speaker 1 New rule, now that the Labor Department has put out all these inspirational posters designed to rouse and pep up the American worker with taglines like Build America's Future and Your Nation Needs You and Blue Collar Boom, they must tell us which dating site for gay white men did they steal them from?

Speaker 1 And also,

Speaker 1 this is purely out of curiosity, but how much is it for the blue-collar boom?

Speaker 1 And finally, New World Democrats must recognize that Zoran Mom Dani is the future of the party. Unfortunately, it's the Republican Party.

Speaker 1 Get it?

Speaker 1 And if you missed his victory speech in last week's mayoral election in New York, don't worry. You'll see it in every attack ad for the next two years.

Speaker 1 Now, Mendami seems like a nice guy, and I congratulate him on an extraordinary political achievement.

Speaker 1 But before the whole left side of the country catches socialism fever, let's listen to the other big winner in last Tuesday's election, Virginia Governor-elect Abigail Spanberger, who before the 24 election said things like, if the party didn't shift to the center, we will get fucking torn apart.

Speaker 1 And we need to never use the word socialist or socialism ever again.

Speaker 1 Well, she was right, but they didn't listen. Typical, am I right, ladies?

Speaker 1 Well,

Speaker 1 at least the party has a clear choice here. Very clear.
One wing is saying don't ever use the word socialist again, and one is saying, I am a democratic socialist.

Speaker 1 Clear, huh?

Speaker 1 So how do we decide who's right? Well, it turns out we don't really have to flip a coin. We have the evidence.
In 2024, 13 Democrats won in districts Trump also won. All moderates.

Speaker 1 This isn't rocket science. All the left-leaning think tanks have done autopsies on 2024, and they all came up with the same message.
Move to the center.

Speaker 1 Even the New York Times, which did so much to promote woke politics, now says the partisans are wrong. Moving to the center is the way to win.

Speaker 1 And Democrats should recognize the party moved too far left on social issues after Obama left office. Gosh, if only someone had been saying that all along.

Speaker 1 But you know, welcome home.

Speaker 1 Problem is, Gen Z thinks socialism's wired and capitalism's tired and billionaires are what's for dinner. And who can blame them?

Speaker 1 If you're 30 and still sharing a bathroom with roommates, capitalism isn't working for you. People will reject any economic system where there's strange hair on the soap.

Speaker 1 No one wants to be approaching middle age and still writing their name on food before they put it in the fridge.

Speaker 1 So they're quitting, quiet quitting capitalism and texting socialism that they're down to fuck.

Speaker 1 Thing is, socialism will fuck you because socialism, to put it simply, just doesn't work and has never worked, like Kevin Federline.

Speaker 1 I know the kids think that stuff that happened before their appearance on the planet didn't really happen, but it did. We've run this experiment many times, and the results are always obvious.

Speaker 1 Here's capitalist South Korea at night from space. Here's socialist North Korea.
Yeah.

Speaker 1 In 1990, Venezuela was wealthier than Poland. But then Poland, finally free of Soviet-style economics, went all in on capitalism.
And now their economy is as big as Japan.

Speaker 1 And people there have high wages, low inflation, cars, vacations, homes.

Speaker 1 Meanwhile, Venezuela traded capitalism for Hugo Chavez's socialism for the 21st century, which turned out to be like socialism in the last century or any century, a fucking mess.

Speaker 1 It turned one of Latin America's richest countries into one of its poorest. Low wages, high inflation, shortages, outages, 8 million people fleeing.

Speaker 1 If you think New York can somehow reinvent this wheel, you're in for a rude awokening.

Speaker 1 Duran can't make your wishes come true. You're thinking of Zoltar.

Speaker 1 Democratic socialism is like a dating profile. Things look great until you meet up in the real world.

Speaker 1 For example, Bernie Sanders, his big thing was always bringing single-payer health care to our country of 340 million.

Speaker 1 But when liberal tie-dyed Vermont tried to do it for a population of 626,000, it collapsed like that poor fuck in the Oval Office last week.

Speaker 1 Bernie, AOC, Mandani are not Democrats. They'll be the first to tell you that.
They're democratic socialists. And that's a very different thing.
And I don't think people know that yet.

Speaker 1 I don't think people realize we already already have a lot of socialism.

Speaker 1 Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, unemployment insurance, food stamps, veterans benefits, Pell Grants, COVID era payments, farm subsidies, disability payments, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, corporate bailouts, and the jobs program that is building weapons the Pentagon doesn't even want.

Speaker 1 All that is socialism, much of it appropriate to soften the edges of capitalism, but the DSA are radicals about this concept, and radical economic policy is always ineluctably married to radical social policy.

Speaker 1 Their platform, for example, calls for completely open borders.

Speaker 1 Therefore, what Biden was doing, but more.

Speaker 1 You think you're going to win an election on that?

Speaker 1 This just seems like more extremism at a time when Americans are begging both parties. Please, could just one of you act normal.

Speaker 1 It's either defund the police or military in the streets. Either MAGA's crypto-crony capitalism or city-run grocery stores.
No, I don't want that.

Speaker 1 I want a Democrat who reassures me if you like your Whole Foods, you can keep your Whole Foods.

Speaker 1 Governor Alex Vanberger once said about Biden's presidency that, quote, nobody elected him to be FDR. They elected him to be normal.
Normal.

Speaker 1 You know, at this year's DSA convention, or as it's commonly known, Comic Con,

Speaker 1 get this, you had to submit a photo of a negative COVID test to get in

Speaker 1 in 2025.

Speaker 1 Yet no one wants to do that shit again. We've had enough of Trump's macho bullshit and also enough of pussy politics.

Speaker 1 Yeah.

Speaker 1 That guy couldn't help himself here.

Speaker 1 These democratic socialists at another of their conventions, they were told to make jazz hands instead of clapping, lest some delegate suffer sensory overload.

Speaker 1 And also, and I'm not joking, they were told not to be wearing, you know, any aggressive scents.

Speaker 11 Please don't go into that space with anything that's like an aggressive scent, for instance, right?

Speaker 11 Because that's going to be difficult for people.

Speaker 1 Oh, for fuck's sake.

Speaker 1 Really?

Speaker 1 This is who the Democrats are thinking of following. You know, Chuck Schumer ain't perfect, but at least he doesn't crumple into a heap when confronted with Chanel number five.

Speaker 1 You may now clap in the traditional way. Thank you very much.
All right, that's our share of us. Josh Barrow, Florence Accari, and Scott Galloway.
Club Random drops every Monday on YouTube.

Speaker 1 Or listen wherever you get your podcast. Now go watch overtime on YouTube.
Thank you very much, ladies and gentlemen.

Speaker 5 Catch all new episodes of Real Time with Bill Ma every Friday night at 10, or watch him anytime on HBO On Demand. For more information, log on to HBO.com.

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