The Annual NFC Over/Unders With Cousin Sal

This episode is brought to you by Wayfair.

Your home is more than a space, it's where you express yourself.

Like, we've all got our game day set up, right?

I'm all about the viewing experience and the entertaining.

So, I got my sofa in optimum viewing position, and I got my grill and patio set up for halftime or after the game, whatever your vibe.

Wayfair is the trusted destination for all things home.

They've got all your home essentials, storage solutions, decor, and more, all in one place.

Get inspired with room ideas and curated collections, all with everyday ways to save.

Shop everything home at Wayfair.com with free and easy deliveries straight to your door.

That is W-A-Y-F-A-I-R.com.

Wayfair, Everystyle, Every Home.

The Bill Simmons podcast brought to you by the Ringer Podcast Network, where you can find the Ringer Gambling Show.

Yeah.

With cousin Sal.

You're on Tuesday, Wednesday, Friday during the season, and we got all these cool pairings.

We got a YouTube channel.

We're going to be putting up great shorts for bets.

So anytime college football, you get excited about,

I really like Baylor today.

You just like, do the selfie video, throw it on there.

Good pull with Balor.

That is like

Baylor.

That's nice.

That's nice.

I'm actually going to watch college football.

And it's live, too.

So if I have to drop a douche, you're coming with me.

I'll bring the laptop in.

It's a lot of fun.

Who am I betting on for the OSU game?

I like, is this going to air before that?

Yeah.

I like Texas.

I think they're in a good spot.

Well, we did for part one, we covered the AFC in in our annual over-under podcast, which we've been doing.

This is the 19th year for us.

In part two, we're going to be doing the NFC.

And we're skipping the NFC East.

I'm fine.

We're doing all 16 teams, including yours,

the Sad Sac Dallas Cowboys.

It's all coming up next.

We're going to take a break and we're going to go Pearl Jam and then the NFC East.

All right, you were dreading this.

We're going to cover the NFC East and do over-unders.

I'll just tell a story before we do it, though.

So I'm getting a colonoscopy in September.

Have you had one?

Yeah.

What was the clean out drill?

How many days?

That's the worst part.

Yeah.

I think it was like a little more than a day.

So I scheduled it for a Monday near the end of the month.

Oh.

And I was going to do it.

You know, do we do guest alliance on Sunday night?

I'm like, that's fine.

I'm not going to.

So my wife was like,

you can't do that on a Monday.

Like, you're, don't you do your podcast live on Sunday with Sal?

And I was like, you're right.

That's worse than a fall wedding to me, like scheduling colonoscopy.

Well, so either I could move it or is it funnier if I have it the next day and I take the clean out stuff and we're just live on YouTube and I might have to run off like twice.

I like that.

Is that better for you?

Yeah, I'll do your voice while you're shitting.

It's fun.

Do we need, should we have somebody on the phone or somebody that you could talk to if I'm like, uh-oh, and I just have to run?

Can we have your doctor on?

Yeah, I think I'm going to keep the colonoscopy.

I'd be happy to keep it for that Monday.

More fun, right?

What do you think, I have?

I'll just sprint out of there.

We'll read the comments.

Yeah, it'll be fine.

You just interact with the crowd.

All right, now speaking of Colin Ask, the NFC East.

Philadelphia.

Over 11.5.

I thought it was going to be lower.

There's reasons.

The NFC East plays the AFC West and the NFC North, the two best divisions we have.

Philly has.

I tried to do a point schedule, a point total thing for schedules that I just made up, and they had the highest one.

They play the first place schedule.

They have night games.

They have a European game.

It's just a nightmare.

And I think that's why it's 11 and a half, not 13.5.

And

I'll tell you what I'm going to do in a second.

Where were you leaning on this?

I mean, listen, I want to predict an Eagles' demise more than anybody, but I think it would be disingenuous.

The only thing I have going for me is no team is repeated as NFC East champ for 21 years.

Eagles did it last in 2004.

And Kellen Moore is out, the offensive coordinator, which freaks people out.

Typically, I know they do with the Lions, but Hurts actually had six offensive coordinators in six years.

That's crazy.

Yeah, that's really nuts.

So,

you know, they went from 31st to fifth in red zone under Fangio.

They lose a bunch of defensive players, Swed, Huff, Milton Williams, but they freaking just draft ballers, more defensive brutalizers.

They got Jihad Campbell from Alabama, Nakobe Dean.

Injury might be worse than they thought.

You know, they got the safety Makuba.

He's a hard hitter.

So I think, you know, you went over that schedule.

They were eight and two in close games, and they played the easiest run defense last year.

But other than that, the fucking tush push didn't get banned.

And so if they can get to third and three,

they move the chains.

Third and three, fourth and one.

There it goes.

You're good.

So I have the Eagles with 11 wins, which is under 11 and six.

Good enough to repeat as champs.

I did my talent rankings for them, and they were the highest by like six points.

They had 38.

I mean, they have just on offense, Hertz, Barkley, Brown, Devontae Smith, Goddard.

Their offensive line is top four.

They got seven points.

Defense, Carter, Bond, DeJonne, Mitchell.

They had a good draft.

Sirianni's top 10 coaching staff.

It's depressing, Sal.

I feel bad for you that this team's in your division.

They've signed Barkley, Lane Johnson, you know, Cam Juergens, like everything they need to do.

Number one seed plus 370.

Conference plus 370.

Super Bowl 7-1.

Playoffs minus 350.

I guess here's my question.

So the Chiefs became the 2010 Patriots, the Brady's, the second decade Patriots, right?

They just kind of assumed that mantle.

Mahomes became Brady.

Reed, the whole offense, and just doing their magic.

Are the Eagles becoming Belichick's 2000s Patriots?

Defense, just like smart.

They have like little gimmicky stuff that they do to get points.

They just kind of outthink teams.

They have the Hertz Carter picks.

They stole A.J.

Brown.

They stole that Bond guy that wasn't even on anyone's radar.

They stole Barkley.

They nail every draft.

They're lurking for every unhappy guy.

Thank God you're not going to trade Parsons to him because even Jerry Jones wouldn't do that.

I haven't updated anything.

They built through the lines and out, which now everybody's stealing.

Like they're just the smartest team.

This is what the Patriots were in the 2000s.

Howie Roseman's great.

I mean, who was your Howie Roseman?

I guess it was just Belichick.

It was Belichick.

But he was literally recreating how you put together a roster for five years.

Yeah, take four of our top 10 best defensive players.

Don't worry.

We'll re-sign and we'll make the money work.

Like it just, it happens year after year.

I mean, they went 12 and one.

I mean, they killed teams at the end.

Think about what they did.

I guess the Rams, that was a weird game.

So that could have gone a different way.

But when they beat up on Washington and then the Super Bowl, like if that continues, I hope they're the team to beat.

And so everybody goes after them a little more, but this just could be how it is for the Eagles.

I mean, we talked about how those top four quarterbacks are kind of set with, you know, Burrow, Allen, Mahomes, and Lamar.

Yeah.

But is Jalen Hurts?

Can he make the move this year into the top four?

Can he go up a notch?

Yeah.

Or is he there?

It's a really hard over-under, and I changed my mind on it a hundred times.

And at one point, I was at 11 with it because I was going through the schedule.

I'm like, Jesus Christ.

Other than the two Giants games,

the Readers, Chargers, two Dallas games, those are their five easiest games.

Those aren't even easy games.

I know, they really could go five and one in the division.

But that NFC North, they're on the road against the three, three good teams, right?

Tampa Bay.

I'm sorry.

Yeah, Minnesota, Green Bay, and their home for Detroit could be tough.

Well, they also have the night games like at Buffalo.

They have a Friday night game, week 13.

Like they have one, two,

two Thursday night games.

They have a Saturday game.

They have a couple Sunday, Monday games.

And it's post-Super Bowl.

Everything went wide for them last year.

Barkley had almost 500 touches when you include the playoffs.

Like, could he break down?

Are they going to have the same offensive line health?

Look.

But when you start talking about that, when it's like reasons not to pick a team to be really good, their offensive line could get hurt.

Oh, as opposed to the other 31 teams, that's not a reason.

So weak.

They're going to be really good.

I don't see how they don't go 12 and 5.

12 and 5.

Yeah, I don't know 12 and 6.

I just think, you know, when Teetons are going in for you, and they do have that weird schedule a little bit, fourth toughest strength to schedule.

Are they going to lose six times?

That would be 11 and 6.

Or are they going to lose five times, which would be 12 and 5?

I don't love this.

I don't love this pick, but I went 12 and 5.

I went over.

Crazy that this became

such a such a ongoing juggernaut.

The Eagles.

Yeah.

Because I feel like this is actually sustainable for the decade, right?

Which is another weird thing about where we are right now, where we have this Chiefs' infrastructure.

We have what they're building.

The Packers have a chance, I think, to have an infrastructure.

The Broncos, maybe.

Buffalo has it already.

Baltimore has it already.

We have very competent players.

What's your secret, Howie Roseman?

Well, like, draft the fattest, strongest lineman in the SEC.

Yeah, on both sides of the ball.

That's it.

Well, just crushed him Carter falls to them.

Like,

that could have been Indianapolis, just could have taken him.

They took Anthony Richardson, who doesn't play for them anymore.

Right.

Washington is nine and a half.

This is the all-time regression candidate.

There's a million things.

And if you're going to go over for them nine and a half, it's a Jaden Daniels pick.

There's no other reason.

House and Chang, and those guys will be like, no, no, we got better.

We added this guy, that guy.

You went sideways.

No.

This is all about Jaden Daniels and what has he got in him.

Plus 220 for the division.

Second place, plus 175, which I think is pretty enticing.

You could zag against them, which I think would have to be a Daniels injury.

But under seven and a half wins is plus 270.

They were 12 and five last year.

How can everything go right two years in a row?

They had Hill Mary last year.

They had four crazy wins.

They had the God-given schedule of all time.

That Eagles regular season win that they would, you know, right, Jackson catch.

Yeah, I have them way under.

They're the oldest team in the NFL in 13 years.

They signed and traded for or re-signed 13 players who are 30 or older this year.

And that was before Von Miller.

So, you know, they took Detroit by surprise.

Great win.

But let's do this.

Quarterbacks they faced, 24.

Daniel Jones, Andy Dalton, Caleb Williams, Daniel Jones, Cooper Rush.

They lost that game.

Will Levis, Jake Hayner, Spencer Rattler, Kenny Pickett, Trey Lance, Deshaun Watson, and then Joe Burrow.

I mean, they converted 87% of four downs, which is insane.

This is, this is like and their defense was awful against good offenses.

Yeah, it was like awful.

They were like 29th against the run.

So one thing is they're favored in 12 games this year.

Yeah.

But their road games are Green Bay, Chargers, Casey, Miami, Minnesota, Philly.

Those are tough.

I'm going eight wins.

I'm going under and no playoffs.

And I'm

not better for sure.

I went nine and eight, but you could talk me into eight and I went under either way.

The worst quarterbacks that play this year, Giants twice, Gino, Darnold, Tua, Knicks.

So it's a little different than

last year.

They went, everyone's talked about this, 20 for 23 and fourth down last year.

That's not replicable.

Safety stink.

Pass rush might be bad.

They lost Allen.

Like, you know, they just might not have a good defense.

I don't trust Marshawn Lattimore, who they traded some stuff for last year.

And the spotlight's different, man.

You look at the schedule, and it's like Thursday, Monday, Monday, Sunday, Madrid, Sunday, Saturday, Christmas.

Like, they're in the spotlight week after week.

And if anything goes wrong, that spotlight gets super hot.

Sure.

Here's the zag

would be everybody is picking them to be a regression team.

And the odds of Jaden Daniels actually being like special.

Right.

Where could he be Mahomes, Lamar, Josh Allen, where it's like you just have to give him 11 wins?

Right.

That would be the case for the running back's good.

McCrosky, the one they call Bill, right?

Crossky.

Are we sure he's good?

He's a seventh-round pick.

Of course, we're not.

Everyone's like, oh, I like him.

It's like Bill.

You got to root for him.

He calls himself Bill for no reason.

Yeah, I like that.

I should do that.

I had for Chippers, Daniels, McLaurin.

That's it on offense.

On defense, Allen, Luvo,

Luvoo, and Wagner, and then Quinn is a coach.

But

kind of a top-heavy team with not a shitload of depth.

That's an old team.

30 is pretty old.

And they're also like with the offensive line, like they took Josh Connerly late in the first round, and he's going to have to be our left tackle.

We just got to keep our fingers crossed, right?

Right, right.

You know, and that our right tackle, and they traded for Tunsel,

who Houston was really happy to get rid of.

Yeah.

But that would have been a red flag to me.

Yeah, the way they spent money was kind of weird.

It wasn't like an up-and-coming wildcard team from the year before.

But, yeah, they got some age behind them.

It's like this weekend when you have custody of Brad all weekend and you're just offering him to me like he's Laramie Tunsel.

Any interest in training for

that too, that Laramie Tunsel mask, though.

That'll be fun.

So this is what this going back to like what we said at part one, where I was like, I don't like this season as much.

I don't feel as comfortable with the over-under.

It's like the Washington under looks too easy.

Yeah, that's the one I'm most confident in.

So yeah, you're probably right.

I had them.

It's okay.

Some people are making a case for them.

Joe House, the fans, everyone.

Well, I did this bet with all the Washington fans I know.

Pats versus Washington.

They gave me two wins because the Pats have a two-win lower over under the Washington.

That's such a, that's easy.

They don't play each other, right?

So we bet

we have the bet, but then Chang wanted to go

game by game.

for the price that was the bet for everybody else.

So like if the Pats go,

I don't know, 10 and 7 and Washington goes 7 and 10, I would have five units on Chang.

Okay.

He's very confident.

He can never lose enough money, that guy.

He loves it.

He just wanted more action.

Speaking of action, Dallas Cowboys.

Skip, pass.

You get one pass.

Everyone gets a pass, right?

Seven and a half is your over-under.

Five to one for the division, plus 186 for the playoffs.

If you want to go under five and a half wins, which I think is pretty enticing, three to one.

What's better about their defense this year?

Anything?

Also, your best player is in street close.

Yeah.

I put the over under at August 25th, and here we are the 27th.

I don't know when you guys are listening, but these are crucial day, three days for him to sign.

Not that they're going to beat the Eagles in week one, but

yeah, that was awful.

We saw them lose to the Packers, right, in the playoffs, and then their defense just got worse, apparently.

Like, you know, the car beat them.

The Saints put up 40 against them.

They were getting crushed at home.

This is a team that would would never really lose at home.

You gave up 468 points.

Yeah.

It's like 30 games, basically.

Yeah.

So

we have to out-slug teams, kind of like the Bengals, except we're probably not as talented.

I do like the Pickens.

Look, I'm on too many Cowboys text threads and Twitter accounts and newsletters to have a proper perspective for this team.

I'm overcome with negativity.

Like Joe Milton throws an interception.

Like, they're going to go 2 and 15 because he kills the first team defense in practice.

So i oh is that true he's killing the first thing that there is there is and there's a chance this brian schotenheimer's a disaster i mean they didn't care jerry i'm just gonna watch the documentary on a loop for

netflix week and that's it yeah they were somehow 24th in dvoa last year on defense i don't know how they were eight teams worse they were 32nd in run defense and they went from mccarthy to schotenheimer I don't know what that does.

The running backs are, they just threw away the position again.

Really strange.

You want a great stat on running backs?

Yeah.

Sharp again.

Despite 140 running back runs through week nine, they didn't have a single rush over 15 yards.

140.

You and I could touch the ball 140 times.

One time a hole opened up, the defensive back fell down.

Nothing, nothing.

And that doesn't get better with Javante Williams.

They're going to have to get better with the Clemson, get lucky with the Clemson kid.

I don't know.

Well, what happens if Parsons misses the first two games?

Because we're taping this on a late Wednesday afternoon, Pacific time.

And Chris Jones did this two years ago.

He missed the first game, I think they lost, and then they sold him.

Yeah, the second game is against the Giants.

You would think, you would think Jerry, after being 0-1-1, which they will be, will have him locked up.

But I, I say, seven and ten.

I'm pleasantly surprised that they exceed seven wins.

They can't run the ball and they can't stop the run.

And they also have a brutal schedule.

Yeah, look at them.

Even when they play the third-place schedule, which is the Jets, Denver, and Arizona.

That kind of sucks.

People like, obviously, we were big on Denver in the last podcast, and people like Arizona.

Look at those last six or six of the last seven.

There's a stretch where they go at Raiders, home Eagles,

Chiefs on Thanksgiving, at Lions, and then finished it up with the Vikings on a Sunday night.

Yep.

And even Chargers and at Washington.

Yeah.

I have them losing to the Giants, which hasn't happened in a while in that last game, which puts them at seven and ten.

That's just a brutal, although, you know, the one, I mean, I guess the only upside is that wide receiver core.

Like, even though the Steelers seem to know when to move on from wide receivers, Pickens and Lamb is pretty damn good, right?

He's going to, there's going to be some long balls in there.

They're going to have 35 points, and their defense is going to have to kill him.

I have them going 5 and 12 and going, wow, look at you.

Throw this in your face.

But I'll say this.

Yeah.

I think it's going to be a fun 5 and 12 team.

Oh, yeah.

Dak, Lamb,

Pickens.

Like, they're going going to get fantasy points.

I have no idea who's going to run the ball.

What a jerk.

Fun five and twelve.

You don't like the idea of a fun five and twelve?

No, no.

Give me a boring, whatever the Chargers do, nine and eight every year.

You wouldn't consider, like, you wouldn't be consider at any point doing what I did last year and started a mood against them?

I can't do it.

I don't have, you know, I know people who like kind of own teams and stuff.

I don't like it.

I don't like it.

Back to the, I absolutely cannot believe this team made the playoffs list where we had three and 24 and two or four and 23 and then two and 22.

So this always happens.

What do you mean?

Oh, that year they beat Minnesota?

No, no, I'm just saying because we're going to the next team.

Yeah.

We had three teams, Minnesota, Washington, Denver last year, all with three to one odds are better, basically.

This year we have Vegas plus 320, Tennessee plus 390, Jets, Giants plus 680,

Saints plus 820, and Cleveland plus 920.

I really wanted to do it.

I wanted to put the Giants in the playoffs.

The vibes are immaculate.

I wanted to do it.

The schedules are.

It seems like they hit the jackpot with Dart.

Like, for real.

You think so?

Yeah, it seems like he's going to be playing by week four, and he's going to be good.

Oh, all right.

It seems like he...

is just checking every box for this guy might have it.

It bothered Carter's the best guy in the the draft.

Yeah.

He couldn't get through.

It's true.

Carter's favorite for defensive rookie of the year.

He couldn't get through the easy pass, Jackson Dart.

That bothers me a little bit.

What do you mean?

I think he's racking up tickets just driving through the easy pass because he doesn't understand it.

Doesn't that bother you?

Like if you asked me, he doesn't understand it.

That's what he said.

He said, I don't know what it is.

I just keep going.

He couldn't solve the easy pass?

No.

No.

Look it up.

It's crazy.

It's the schedule, though.

I think they're going to be like the Jets, where they're competitive.

I like to bet them over eight and a half.

I think they're going to be more than competitive.

Really?

There's a case.

So, first of all,

there's a real case they might have the best D-line in the league with those guys, with Bern and Thibodeau, Burns and Thibodeau, and add Carter to it, and Lawrence.

Pass rush-wise.

They give up running a lot of runs.

Yeah, but I'm just saying, like, if they can get a lead and they're in the second half, and those guys can just come after

whoever, like, that's going to be a scary team.

It seems like, so Thomas came back as their left tackle.

That was big.

Neighbors

going going for 50 bucks and first-round pick and fantasy.

Wilson throws that

moon ball that connects every now and then.

That could be.

I think we see him for three weeks.

I was looking at it.

At Commanders, at Cowboys, home Chiefs,

home Chargers, at Saints.

Chargers game, I think he's starting.

Where is that?

Week four.

Four?

Yeah.

I don't think you start him against the Chiefs on Sunday night.

You don't want any part of that.

So then they'd have to be one and two, though.

You're giving them two lots, or at least two.

I think they split those first two.

I don't know.

But when the schedule, when you think the combo doesn't get easier,

the two hardest divisions.

Then their fourth place schedule is the Pats, Vegas, and San Francisco.

Yeah, those are their

fun.

Right.

Right.

So I just couldn't get there.

I went through it.

I was trying to do every angle to get them to 10 and 7.

And because I think 10 and 7 is going to be the NFC 7.

No, you don't have to.

Don't do that.

Don't hurt yourself.

I am with 6 and 11.

And one of those wins is against my Cowboys in week 18.

I think 10 plus wins plus 750

is a great bet.

And I might pick that when we do our futures thing.

I just think there's a history says.

There's seven losses in there at least.

History says,

like we would have said last year with Denver and Washington, we would have been like, no way, get the fuck out.

Like Washington went 12 and five last year.

We both went over for them, but we were like, over nine nine would be a miracle and they won 12.

daniels for rookie of the year yeah i don't know i don't know i believe me i liked it and then i looked at the schedule and i couldn't get there can i offer you this bet one and eight and one score game this time fan duel eight plus wins plus 300 i mean that could happen yeah that's that's not bad three to one odds on them going eight and nine

i like when i i mean the fact that We gave them Abdul Carter with the Joe Milton thing has to be up there with the Homa catch with Pat's Giants relationships.

Now you're stuck with Joe Milton.

He's terrible.

I know.

But they also, they lost to the Colts.

They would have had Cam Ward otherwise, and they ended up trading up for Jackson Dart.

So they've done some dumb shit.

That's like a transformational draft.

I think it's better that they ended up the way they ended up and they maybe they moved up.

I had this written down for them.

I think this is the underdog that ruins the most teasers and parlays this year.

Yeah.

I think there's three or four weeks where they're like plus eight, plus nine, plus seven.

Stay away from it.

And you put the money favorite in there with three other teams and the Giants just fuck it up.

Well, that's what I said, Fando.

Let me bet over eight and a half covers.

That's how I want to do it.

That's a really good idea for a bet.

What?

I'll talk to you.

We know people have fancy.

I mean, those should all be eight and a half, right?

You wouldn't change anything.

All right.

Defense, they have a

couple studs, and then neighbors is really the only offensive threat, unless Cam Scatabo can turn into something.

But I like the fact it seemed like they weren't going to be able to block, but now that Thomas is back, maybe they will be.

One other thing I like about this team, dayball and a, I'm getting fired if this doesn't work out.

Fuck it.

Like, he's just going to do, he's, he's got a different situation.

If he thinks Dark can play and help them, he's putting him in.

Okay.

We're going to take a break and then we'll do the NFC North.

Football is almost back.

And thank God.

We get to bet, we get to watch.

We get to do all kinds of things with our friends at Fandor.

Fando is getting you ready to kick off the kickoff with an offer you won't want to miss.

New customers can bet just $5 and get $300 in bonus bets if you win.

That's right.

Pick a bet, bet $5.

If it wins, you unlock $300 in bonus bets to use all across the app.

Parlays, bet player props, ride the live lines, whatever your style.

Fando has you covered.

The NFL season, it's so close.

It's almost here.

The only question is, are you ready to play?

Visit fando.com slash BS to download the Fando app today and get started.

You must be 21 plus in President Select States or 18 plus in President DC, Kentucky, or Wyoming.

First online real money wager only,

$5 first deposit required, bonus issued as non-withdrawable bonus bets, which expire seven days after receipt.

Restrictions apply.

C terms at sportsbook.fando.com.

Gaming problem, call 100 gamble or visit rg-help.com.

Call 888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/slash chat in Connecticut paid endorsement.

This episode is brought to you by Uber Eats.

Summer is here and you can now get almost anything you need for your sunny days delivered with Uber Eats.

What do I mean by almost?

Well, you can't get a well-groomed lawn delivered, but you can get chicken parmesan delivered.

I love chicken parm.

A day in the sun?

No.

A bottle of rum?

Yes.

Uber Eats can definitely get you that.

Get almost, almost anything delivered with Uber Eats.

Order now.

For alcohol, you must be legal drinking age.

Please enjoy responsibly.

Product availability varies by region.

See app for details.

All right, before we do the NFC North, the group of, I kind of can't believe they missed the playoffs, which is all the odds, the missing the playoff odds from basically even to plus 160.

Washington, Denver, Cincinnati, Rams, Houston, Tampa.

You've read this like Detroit and San Francisco.

I'm just

resetting.

We had four teams missed last year.

The Lions are over 10.5.

They went 15-2 last year.

And there's a chance they will miss the playoffs.

Again, that number is plus 138.

Any interest?

I hate that.

I don't think the OC is worth four losses, four more losses.

They're going to go from 15 to actually be five to be under.

They'd have to go from 15 to 10.

I think this is offense is good enough.

I mean, there's a lot of ways to go with this team.

I think the positives far outweigh the negatives.

They would top three in like 10 offensive metrics.

So if you want to give that to Johnson, that's fine.

I don't think St.

Brown, Gibbs, Goff Laporte are going to forget how to play football because Johnson's gone.

They were 8-0 on the road, 16-1 is 10-point teasers.

Their strength of schedule was the third toughest.

Their skill positions players were very healthy.

They had like 20 IR guys, and most of them were defensive players, including Aiden Hutchinson, who was on his way to a banner year.

So Ragnow, you know, he's gone.

So that's been the offensive line.

This could be, you know, this is the problem with everyone.

Zeitler went to the Titans, but as long as those skill position players are healthy, I think Dan Campbell's too good to put it like nine wins or 10 wins.

Is this the best division for you?

I think I gave the AFC West more wins than this one.

I think it's the two of them together.

So here's the case.

Yeah.

37 wins for this.

I sniffed this out last year.

Yeah.

The year from health team, San Francisco, because there were already signs before we even started.

Here's the case for Detroit coming off a devastating playoff loss.

Lost both coordinators and seven coaches overall, including Ben Johnson, who I think everybody thought was the best offensive coordinator in the league.

The new offensive coordinator, John Morton, is getting some WTFs.

He's just the

Denver pass coordinator.

Yeah.

It's like, what's going on with this guy?

Goff went on that quarterback show.

Just flagging it.

Right.

Brutal schedule, you mentioned.

It's a schedule that includes four more outdoor games than they had last year.

That was one of the big things with them last year that we loved was they were just in a dome all the time.

And they lost their center and they lost their guard.

Like this, this great offensive line that was like the lifeblood of their team, it's just not as good anymore.

Right.

So that would be the case.

15 wins, though, with so many to come down from.

I have them in the playoffs, but I have them at 10 and 7.

okay i have 12 wins and a one seed i went under i think it's i think it's just way more likely things go wrong for this team than right all right i mean from right from like 15 and two obviously is never happening again i there's i just really like this division best rest edge as anyone else out of anyone 13 more rest days than anyone yeah i mean listen that was eight road games are against teams that finished above 500 so that's doesn't get more brutal but i feel like they win these games a lot of these teams have been playing a first-place schedule for a while.

Yeah.

Used to it.

I just, I talked about this on a pod previously.

When the Pats had that year when they lost Romeo Cornell and Charlie Weiss after the third Super Bowl and heading into 05 and people, and I remember thinking, like, everyone was like, this could be a big deal.

And it's like, come on.

How's this going to be a big deal?

It is a big deal when you have the wrong coordinator, you have different, different language.

And I just feel like everything was right for them.

But the thing that really worries me is the offensive line line because,

yeah, you can have Jared Goff if you're going to be able to block for him.

And now, like, if you can push up the middle on him and get to him.

Zeitler went to the Titans, too.

Yeah.

So I just feel 10, it's 10 and 7, 11 and 8 range.

I don't think they crater.

I don't think it's like a 9ers thing, but I had to mention the year from health thing because I think it's...

There's always a team.

Yeah.

I had them with 26 at my rankings.

26 points.

I even gave Goff a four point.

You did?

Yeah, that's nice.

The The next team is the team I like in this division, the Green Bay Packers.

And I don't think I'm alone.

I'm with you.

Over nine and a half wins.

There's been some juice that really changed with this.

Division, plus 220.

The Lions for the division were plus 175.

The Lions were 10-1 to win the Super Bowl and minus 172 for the playoffs.

The Packers are now 16 to 1 to win the Super Bowl, minus 138 to the playoffs.

So their odds over a five-month span started to creep toward Detroit.

12-plus wins for them is plus 310, which I have in bold for our future draft.

Last year, they were 11-6.

So let's talk about that.

I don't feel like a ton of shit went right for them last year, right?

Love was hurt all year.

At one point, I think he had three different injuries.

Watson gets hurt near the end of the season.

It just felt like JR Alexander was never like, you never knew it was getting with him.

I just felt like for them to go 11 and 6 and got, they got to the point that we were taking them really seriously as a spoiler in January.

Yeah.

And they hung in that, going 11 and 6 in a division where they had Minnesota and Detroit.

Well, they went one and five in the division.

And so ended up with 11 wins.

Unbelievable.

Bizarre.

I think this is, I mean, he's a third-year quarterback.

And if you look at, he was the most cursed quarterback in terms of, like you said, injuries, but also those guys sucked.

Like Jaden Reed and Devontae and Wakes just

dropped.

Their receiver error was like tops in the leagues there.

They in the league.

And I think they have, you know, this Golden could be really good.

I think Reed, I'm sorry, Love in his third year is solid.

He's, you know, 80% on a quarterback sneak.

So he's got that Eagles thing going for him, even though they were the biggest complainers about the tush push.

So,

yeah, I like them a lot.

I mean, they play the Lions and then no division games for two months.

So they can make some hay a little bit.

Yeah, I liked.

I looked at the schedule and I kind of liked how it broke down where they got Lions commanders to start but home and then then going right to at Cleveland at Dallas.

I'm not worried about that

bye week.

I might be 4-0 at the bye week.

You mentioned love.

One of the questions for me is, can he be a true franchise QB?

And people thought it was going to happen last year.

And it turns out they were like a year away from being the team this year.

Yeah.

But the LaFleur thing is nuts.

Like Debundo was talking about this.

They have a top 10 offense every year.

LeFleur is 67 and 33 as a head coach.

Right, right.

You know, and it doesn't seem to matter what kind of injury luck they have.

They move their offensive line around, and that Jenkins, who everybody loves, is going to be the center this year.

But it seems like they're going to be able to block.

Jacobs over 1,300 yards.

Yeah, they're solid.

They're going to put up points.

Well, it seems like this Golden, they might have hit with this guy.

It seems like Agbuka and Golden are both going to be really good.

Super quick, dude.

So, one question, and they have an excellent coaching staff.

One question I had with them:

Love 25 to 1 MVP.

I got it.

Shield did a whole, oh, you have it?

I got an art thing.

Shield did a whole MVP tiers and was talking about basically the MVP has to come from a 12, 13, 14 win team.

No doubt about it.

So if you think Green Bay can be the one seed,

you have to bet Love 25 to 1.

I have them in 11 wins, but of course they can get 12.

And of course, 25 to 1 is worth it for that.

And also, like, the voters might just be sick of, I don't want to decide who's better, Allen or Mahomes or Jackson.

It might go to an NFC guy this year.

No.

All right.

We're both in on them.

I have them at 21 points in my rankings, but

there might be some guys that are coming on too, especially from that draft.

Minnesota.

Bover is nine and a half as well.

Plus 290 for the division.

Even odds for the playoffs.

11-1 to be the one seed.

Did I mention the Packers' odds for the one seed?

9-1.

Okay.

If you want to go, I think J.J.

McCarthy is going to be a bust.

I'd like to offer you under six and a half wins for plus 360.

They were 14 and three last year, so.

Yep.

Who has a wider ceiling-floor disparity than J.J.

McCarthy?

This is like literally a complete unknown.

No idea what to expect.

So you're of two schools of thought, right?

Either J.J.

McCarthy's coming off an injury.

He's unproven in big games.

He didn't actually play great.

He was 10 for 18, 140 against Ohio State.

They tried to trade for Anthony Richardson that whole draft.

That whole thing and the Washington game, you know, he wasn't, that's when he was 10 for 18.

He was 12 for 24 against Ohio State.

Or you're of the school that, well, Sam Darnold won 14 games, so it doesn't really matter who's throwing.

I'm with the former here.

I need to see something out of this guy first.

I don't think it's good that how excited they are that Adam Thielen signed in late August.

Like they're freaking throwing parties that Adam Thielen is on there.

No Addison for first three games.

Thielen, they get, and it's like, thank God Thielen's here.

Yeah, of course, Jefferson's great, but in that offensive line is solid, but they were nine and one in one-score games.

And I don't think you could demand the same from a rookie coming out after an injury.

Some of the regression stuff with them,

it's almost as classic of a profile as who's the team we did in the AFC?

Oh, oh, Washington.

Yeah, that was the other one.

They had crazy turnover luck, they had crazy one-score one-score game luck.

Schedule was easier.

This year, like the way we're at cornerback,

and I think you're going to be able to throw on them.

And I mentioned that because they're going at Bears, home Falcons, home Bengals for their first three games.

Teams are going to be dialing up and throwing on them.

Now, the Patriots did a whole week of practices that exhibition game, and their defense kicked our ass.

And

I...

Flores did a good job with that defense, but 33 takeaways, which is what they had.

I don't want to say it's lucky, but it's hard to replicate, right?

Like everything kind of went right for them for those last two games.

Yeah, they hit last year.

They hit with that Van Ginkle signing.

Right.

But it's weird.

When I did my rankings, and I really like when I do those, I look, I read all the lists.

And

their defense is great, but it's really because of Flores.

It's not like they're like loaded with studs.

They move parts around.

But

Kelly and Freeze and Donovan Jackson, they drafted from Ohio State.

You know, they got Hargrave

on the defense.

I don't know.

I just think that's a lot.

That nine and one and one score games thing scares me.

I have them with seven wins.

What do you have?

You have eight?

Seven wins?

Seven and ten.

So you have them dropping seven wins.

Dropping seven wins, yeah.

Well, that's what you're doing in Detroit, basically, now?

I have them dropping five, sevens.

Like, holy shit.

All different things.

So you're out on JJ McCarthy.

That's an I'm out on J.J.

McCarthy.

Yeah, I have to be.

If I'm going to give some of these other teams wins, like Green Bay.

I'm under, I have them at nine and eight.

By the time we get to next week, it could be eight and nine because just because I think their defense is after the buy, Philly at Chargers, at Detroit, Baltimore.

It could be that.

So one of the things, one of the reasons I did that was because I was looking at

when I did the

looking at the biggest, the most wins by division each year.

Yeah.

So last year, the NFC North had the most wins.

They had 45 wins.

Jesus.

Year before AFC North, 43.

Year before that, NFC East, 43.

Right.

So that's just the last three.

So you figure it's going to be somewhere in that range, 43 to 45.

And I think the NFC North's the best division.

So I wanted to get in that like 43 range.

So that's why I gave them 9 and 8.

Who they play, NFC East and AFC North?

Yeah, yeah, it's tough,

not the easiest, well, maybe not tough, but um,

yeah, so with Minnesota,

they're in London a couple of weeks, right?

This, I mean, that

their schedule is really tough.

Is that hard to win both?

Isn't that hard to beat Pittsburgh and Cleveland in one of those games?

It's gonna be shitty weather.

Also, like, has anyone done Dublin and London back to back?

Like, have we ever done two different countries back to back in Europe?

I don't, I don't think so.

I don't think the Jags did that.

You know, we're sending the fantasy football guys to die.

I heard.

You're never going to see them again.

I think high-fetz might not come back.

It's 50-50.

Yeah, they're two, I'm not worried about.

What do we call the coach that has the

middle seat

vote?

Middle seats.

Same thing.

This end of the run for the for

God.

So they have a bye week, and then they go Eagles, at Chargers, at Lions, Ravens, Bears, at Packers, at Seahawks, Commanders, at Cowboys, at Giants, Lions, Packers.

There's like, talk about no room for anything.

It's a lot to ask for old JJ.

Yeah, nine and eight.

I might even go lower than that.

Under for them.

Man, it feels like we are agreeing too much this podcast.

No, because

what else do we have?

It feels like we're mad.

Like the Browns and dumb shit.

The Bears.

Now I feel like you're going to be with me and the Bears.

Well, last year, our decision was under eight and a half or no playoffs, right?

I mean, they were asking a lot of the rookie to go nine and eight its first year.

I was under on the Bears.

The Bears ended up five and 12 last year.

They had one of the worst coaching situations in the league.

The Hail Mary by Daniels

literally ruined their season.

They were never the same.

They're over as seven and a half,

five to one for the division, which I think is enticing, plus 184 for the playoffs, plus 210, 10 wins.

So, Ken Ben Johnson,

can this be Shanahan and McVay?

Is that what we're signing up for with this?

My bet is yes.

Really?

And that's part of like the Lions thing.

I don't think you can say the Lions are fine, but then not also dive in on the Bears.

I mean, you, well, you can go one, one, one, 11.

I screwed that up.

You can't say,

take two.

You can't say the lions are going to be fine, but then, but then.

I think I did say it.

Yeah.

Did I say fine?

The brains are going to be bad.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Yeah.

I think it's one or the other.

That's what I'm saying.

So here's what I'm saying.

I'm buying my.

We've been doing this for two and a half hours.

Yeah, yeah.

It's getting a little crocky.

I'm in on Ben Johnson.

Yeah.

Okay.

And I didn't want to be, and it felt a little Justin Herberty, and it felt like all these, all the NFL nerds were trying to bully us and talk about how brilliant Ben Johnson is.

But I've loved his training camp.

I love the tough love stuff with Caleb.

I like that Tyson Bajant, he just keeps like kind of, they gave him extension.

They keep giving him how great he is.

And

I don't know.

I just think he's going to be, he's got a lot of weapons, got receivers all over the place.

They got that.

Everybody likes that.

Loveland.

They should be able to block okay.

They helped him out.

They got Tooney and Jonah Jackson, right?

Drew Dahlman.

And they load it up.

This is a classic rookie quarterback.

I said two more wide receivers with the first three picks.

Caleb Williams might need a little more than Ben Johnson to excel in this division.

So that's really.

That was my next question.

Does Caleb Williams have it?

Yeah.

If he doesn't have it, we're going to know because I was trying to think, has anyone, any year two quarterback

been in a better situation since Mahomes?

I don't know.

Some will say McCarthy, if you want to count him as a year two quarterback.

But this guy's got, like, no, this is a better situation the next genius offensive head coach yeah weapons everywhere number one pick receivers and tight ends and DJ Moore and you know the running backs aren't that good they spent money on the line like they've done everything right and he just has to be good I never like the guys who are sacked 68 times third most ever I never like those guys.

I feel like, and maybe you're right about Ben Johnson.

Maybe it's in two years, but I just don't think Caleb Boyer, he takes him like, we might see Tyson Bajant and not because of an injury.

I'm going to go that far.

That'd be amazing.

And I have seven wins.

I think they go under.

I think the luck.

Oh, we don't agree.

We don't agree.

No.

They forced 24 turnovers last year, 13 fumble recoveries.

That's lucky.

13 fumble recoveries.

Dennis Allen.

Yeah.

DC this year.

Dennis Allen.

But they didn't upgrade Dennis Allen for him.

They didn't really sign.

The pass rush wasn't good.

They go from the third easiest to the seventh hardest schedule now.

I'm hitting that on there.

Left tackle might be shaky.

Running backs might be shaky.

I'm in.

All right.

I'm in.

I think they go 10 and 7.

I'm way over.

I have them in the playoffs.

Okay.

Let's bet $25,000.

I have three NFC North playoff teams, which our colleague Kay Adams.

Yeah.

That was one of her special bets on the fame goal.

No, she had it.

Right.

Kay Adams, why hasn't she invited you on?

Maybe she has, and I've turned her down.

Go on in the KFs teams.

You and Kay Adams agree?

Oh, this is something now.

Kay Adams and I agree.

I have 12 for the Lions, 11 for the Packers, and 7 for the Vikings, and 7 for the Bears.

Some of these schedules are tough.

Man,

I think you whiffed on that.

I have 10,

9, 19,

12 for Green Base.

That's 31.

I have 41 for this.

Holy shit.

Yeah.

23 there.

I have 37.

Okay.

I'm just glad we were able to do math.

It might be wrong.

We're going to take a break and then talk about a division that's not as good, the NFC South that's next.

And now it's time for Great Call, a segment sponsored by Verizon.

Before the first whistle blows, the smartest plays are already on the board.

These great calls are the backbone of a successful season.

And when it comes to winning strategy, you can't beat the value you get at Verizon.

They make sure you're always getting the most out of your money.

Speaking of great calls, this offseason had a couple of standouts, things I'm looking at as we head into the NFL season, the Bears hiring Ben Johnson, trying to team him up with a bunch of weapons.

I think they're going to be a playoff team.

The Raiders taking Ashton Gente to put him with Brock Bowers.

The Patriots finally getting a left tackle to protect Drake May.

And I think best of all, the Giants getting Abdul Carter, who I think is going to be the defensive player of the year and fortifying their front four.

Now they have the best offensive line pass rushing wise in the league.

So there were some really good calls

over the spring.

Sometimes that's not always the case.

If you're looking to make a great call this season, make it with Verizon.

Get a brand new phone with select phone trade in and my plan and lock down a low price for three years on any plan with my plan.

This is for everyone, whether you're a new or existing customer.

Swing by Verizon today and get the most for your money.

Three-year price guarantee applies to then current base monthly rate only.

Additional terms and conditions apply for all offers.

Least Least wins by division last few years.

AFC South 25 last year.

Year before NFC South 27.

Year before that AFC South 23.

Then we had a 28, a 23 and a 24.

This would be my candidate to have the least wins unless you wanted to go AFC South.

Yeah, it's one of the Souths is going to have the least wins.

And a lot of it depends on this Tampa Bay Buccaneers team, how many wins you think they're going to get, or if you think think they're even going to be good.

It's interesting.

So their over is nine and a half.

Action on the under

minus 105 for their vision minus 160 for the playoffs.

There's really not a lot of value anywhere around here.

Worfs looks like their left tackle who's excellent looks like he's coming back like week, maybe even week two ranking.

Yeah, that didn't look good like three months ago.

So that changed a little bit.

And then Godwin will be back after a month, but they're fine because they got a Igbuka in the draft who's a stud.

Love that guy.

So here's my take on this.

Tell me if you agree.

This feels like our slow start, fast finish team this year.

Yeah.

They have no worse for the first couple weeks, five of their first eight on the road, plus Philly at home.

But then it gets really easy down the stretch.

And it feels like I'm just marking this down.

Remind me in four weeks that we talked about it.

We wait a month and bet on Tampa to win the position.

Let's let Atlanta take a little lead and then jump on it.

Yeah.

Don't freak out if they lose at Atlanta week one.

Yeah.

It's fine.

It's fine.

They're one and three after four games.

Oh my God.

What's like, yeah, that's what I love.

I love this team.

Am I happy that they cut Shiloh Sanders?

No, of course not.

They're behind the eighth ball there.

No, but listen, this is second year in a row.

Bulls has a new OC.

He lost Canalis and then Liam.

So last year, number two score rate, number three points per drive, 16 and one and 10 point teasers.

You love that.

The secondary.

I love it.

I do.

But they have Vita Vea and Reddick.

They got Reddick from the Jets.

That could be a force like inside against the run.

I just love that offense, right?

Bucky Irving, 1,100-plus yards, 41 touchdown passes for Baker.

He's a fucking machine.

And then, like you said, add Egg Buka, who could be a generational talent.

And what do you go, like 19th?

So it's going to be teams like kicking.

It feels like he's going to be Brian Thomas Jr.

for this year.

Right.

Plus, they still have Evans.

Plus, Bucky Irving was fucking awesome last year.

Lots of points.

They had 152 fourth quarter points.

That was the best in the league last year.

Like, they really, they don't get nervous.

This is the best stat I saw.

Go ahead.

So

the past 25 years,

they have the six best third down conversion rate last year.

The other teams that were ahead of them were the 22 Bills, the 2011 Saints, the 06 Colts, the 04 Vikings, and the 01 Rams.

Right.

Like, they weren't just great on third down.

They were like out of their minds.

So people would say, well, Liam Cohen's not there anymore.

And yeah, I'm a little worried about that.

But they have a lot of weapons and they can block.

So

New OC is named Josh Grizzard.

Yep.

He was their quarterback coach, right?

You know what's interesting?

They're still in the running to be the best NFC team of the 2020s.

Yeah, it's true.

51 and 33, 6-4 in the playoffs, four straight division titles, and they won a Super Bowl.

So it's them or the Eagles right now.

Interesting.

Kind of battling back and forth for that.

I got news for you.

Should I say this now?

Yeah,

I know you don't like Santa Clara.

Maybe you're not a big fan.

I don't know if you want that over the airwaves, but the Buccaneers are going there in February.

This is oh, so I did a Buffalo.

You're going Tampa.

They're meeting each other.

12 and 5.

Repeat as you have Buffalo versus Tampa.

That's what I have.

I have Buffalo versus Green Bay.

That could be good too.

We'll bet them both.

12 and 5.

Classic garbage division.

I like it.

I went over, obviously, and I know you did too.

I don't know if it's 10 and 7 or 11 and 6.

It's somewhere in there.

You went over that ending.

I mean, that could be some run.

Right.

But, you know, at Falcons, at Texans, first two weeks, they might start at 0-2, and then Eagles, at Seahawks.

They could literally be 2-5 after seven weeks and still win the division.

Right.

I had them with 26 points in my roster rankings.

So

right in the cusp of Chiefs and some of those other teams,

top four offensive line in the league,

four chippers on defense, including David and Winfield, who were like high chippers.

Mayfield's just good.

I mean, that's it.

Let's all give up.

He's somewhere between like the eighth and 13th best quarterback in the league.

He tied for the league lead in interceptions.

He had 16, but when you're 41 touchdown passes,

you're all right.

Atlanta,

seven and a half is the over-under for them, plus 220 for the division.

So there's some value there because if you don't think Tampa is going to have something bad happen, plus 142 for the playoffs.

They were 8-9 last year.

My two questions.

What if Pennex isn't good?

And what if Penix

isn't good?

Same question.

Wait a minute, let me answer the first second one.

You can answer either.

What if he's not good?

Then they'll be in a little bit of trouble.

I mean, he's not as accurate as cousins, but there are some things to like about him for sure.

Because if they're going to be a playoff team,

he's going to have to be like good.

Because they're going to have to, I don't think their defense is going to be very good.

And they spent two first-round picks, including one they traded next year

to beef up their pass rush.

They signed, you know, they spent a lot of money trying to have a pass rush.

I wish their coaching was a little better, right?

Raheem Morrison and the year before Arthur Smith, they lost a lot of games down the stretch.

They lost six of the last eight games and 24 and four of the last five and 23.

So that's what bugs me about this team.

The other thing that bugs me is I was going to do a thing on Ringer Gambling channel.

I was going to send a to camera video of how to explain to your wife her fantasy team sucks.

She went out with her friends and drafted Kyle Pitts.

Fuck your wife did?

Early.

That's like divorce level.

I know.

I didn't even want to talk to her.

And I was like, hey, I crossed off a lot of names.

He was definitely one.

She's like, oh, maybe I wasn't paying attention.

I'm like, not paying attention.

This Kyle Pitts, this is his year thing.

He didn't get drafted in our ring.

He didn't.

No.

200, whatever picks.

Yeah.

I mean, this is Lucy pulling the ball from Charlie Brown.

They signed Leonard Floyd and they took Jalen Walker 15th and James Pierce Jr.

26th.

And Pierce Jr.

was supposed to be like heading into last college season, like a top five pick.

But then you read the,

I went on the falcons reddit i went on the uh i googled their pass rush and it like people i guess they didn't have that great of a preseason yeah they weren't like oh my god we're loaded these guys are crazy like it wasn't like that at all they're doing the howie roseman sec big body guys thing superstars so bad at cornerback

Run defense is going to be terrible.

Grady Jarrett's finally gone.

But then the big thing that like cemented the under for me, because I'm going under seven and a half,

they lose their right tackle, caleb mcgarry on friday i saw that yeah and they had this offensive line that was good it was definitely like it wasn't a top four offensive line but it was probably top 10.

right but he's the right tackle it's the penix blindside spot and i was like i'm out i'm out i'm under that's it right that's i was on the fence and now i'm out

i saw it first of all we learned how to it's b sean not b sean we learned uh this summer so i don't know if that changes your did he over there yeah he did he did interviews and said that b sean i'm surprised here, but I think that division is so bad that they could go five and one.

So I think they're going to get 10 overall, 10 and 7.

I'm going over.

Look at you.

What?

Yeah, it's fine.

God, that's Sal.

Don't beat you again.

Home against Washington.

They win that.

Home against Tampa.

We like that.

Home against Miami.

Home against Indianapolis.

Four against Carolina at the Jets.

Home against Seattle.

They could win these games.

10-7.

Under.

one thing I wanted to mention: this is an all-in team where they're not even good.

Yeah, like they spent all that money on cousins, they traded next year's first-round pick, and it's like not smart.

Cool, right?

So, we have no cap space, and we don't have a first-round pick next year, so that that might help your over.

This is the division to do it in.

Yeah, they're not going to tank, right?

Um, they play the uh, the NFC South plays the AFC East and the NFC West, which I forgot to mention.

They had the second-place schedule, so they play Indy, Washington, and Minnesota.

I don't like any of those teams.

Look, Pennix is awesome.

Sure.

Yeah.

But

I don't know.

I was looking at the most interceptions for him for our futures draft.

Oh, yeah.

Because he had 11 in his last year in college, which led college.

Right, right, right.

Well, that's good.

Carolina,

six and a half is the number.

There's been some action on the over, minus 130.

They are plus 240 to finish second, plus 410 for the division, plus 250 for the playoffs.

And there's been some, but this is another one of those.

I'm trying to talk myself into them being a sleeper team.

Yeah.

They're another one.

They're going to have the worst defense in the league.

That's it.

That's what I have written down.

You could blame Cam Young or you can blame Young and Bryce Young and Dalton, but most points in NFL history they allowed.

31.4 rushing yards.

Hey, there were some crazy stats about that.

Didn't they give up like 3,000 rushing yards or something crazy?

404 yards per game.

Yeah.

Yeah, that's what it was.

So they get Marig from the Raiders and JC Horn and free agency, but their second-round pick are from the AAM.

AM, the Edge, already has a collapsed long.

So

I don't know.

And he's.

They got Derrick Brown back.

So people are like, well, they got him back.

We want him to be good, Bryce, but, you know, he's like dead in most categories.

Like before that week three benching, he was like pretty much last.

And then he had some, you know, he won four of his last 10 and three of them were in overtime.

So, what do you make of this team?

They don't have to.

I think Canalis has a ways to go here.

I think the over is too high.

I have no idea if Canalis is a good coach.

Terrible secondary, easier schedule.

Look, they traded Thielen, which I find hard to believe.

Like, he couldn't have helped them.

That tells me that they're punting on this season.

Right.

You trade that guy right before the season starts and get like a fifth-round pick.

Yeah.

So, I don't know.

That was suspicious to me.

Yeah, they're already tanking.

Tech McMillan could be fun, but we'll see.

There's some positive schedule stuff with them.

Yeah.

But I couldn't get there.

We'll see.

The offensive line is that they, you know, there's going to be a couple games where they run the ball and Bryce does a couple of things.

Oh, the Panthers.

They're up at halftime.

Yeah.

Upset making here in Philly.

Like, there'll be a couple of those.

Yeah, like I said, they were fun against the Chiefs last year.

They had some games.

Well, they're not going to be worse than this team.

I'm going under for the Panthers.

Six wins for me.

Yeah, so that's under.

New Orleans, four and a half.

Fourth place, minus 130.

Plus 880 to make the playoffs, which is the worst number of the Browns.

You can go under three and a half wins for plus 230.

You can go under two and a half wins for plus 480.

They were 5-12 last year.

They changed their coach.

They tried to change their quarterback, which is one of the reasons I'm going under.

They spent a second-round pick on Tyler Shuck.

Right.

And he doesn't even win the job, even though he's like 25.

Right.

So, congrats on that, guys.

Uh, I guess their offensive line's a little better with banks, and they're better because they don't have Dennis Allen.

Other than that, I don't see

this is in the running for worst team for me.

Has there ever been a less scary trio than Rattler, Shuck, and Hayner?

Like, this is like a

law firm, a toddler coming at you with a bag of cotton balls.

Like, what?

Why are we supposed to be afraid of this?

And the center is out now.

I mean, this is a mess for Kellen Moore and Brandon Staley on the defensive end.

You know, I don't know why we even talk about Carr leaving, but it was actually not awful.

They scored 90 points in the first two weeks, but you're right.

Like, this is.

I think they led the BS podcast that Sunday night after the second week, where we were like, is this the 2,000 Rams?

Yeah.

And Chuck is bad against pressure and blitz like he was in college.

I know he has Kubiak.

Everyone's excited for that, but their schedule is pretty easy.

Only played three playoff teams from last year: Bucs, Rams, and Bills.

I think they're they're four and 13.

I think they're one of, if not the worst team.

In my point system,

they ended up with a one.

Minus two, a quarterback.

Kamara got a point.

Young got a point.

Davis got a point, and they had nothing else.

Awesome.

One point total.

Good job, Saints.

Yeah.

So that's really bad.

They have Chase Young.

I guess that'll help a little bit.

Is this a worst record in the league bet for you?

Yeah, I think so.

I mean, would you go them or the Browns?

I didn't didn't get to, I might do both.

Do we have those odds yet?

The problem with the South is, oh, I don't think I didn't see those odds.

Can I tell you hilarious?

FanDo's been like way more positive.

Like, they don't have a first coach fired.

I don't see a worse record for them.

Right.

What are they doing?

Stop being such a nice guy.

This is a great stat.

So every team on FanDuel has, will they score a touchdown every game of the year?

Yeah.

And so like, the good teams are all like even.

Like, like the Ravens are like minus 140.

And actually, the Lions are minus 240.

The Saints are plus 550.

Plus 550 to score every game.

Every other team is even or minus or something.

They're in trouble.

Are they going to be favored in a single game?

I thought they might be.

Possibly.

Not the first two.

Not home against the Giants.

Probably not.

I don't think.

Bucks, no.

Falcons, no.

Home against Carolina.

Panthers, maybe.

Jets, maybe.

Week 15, 16, maybe.

Maybe.

I mean, they'll have the one game where Kamara has like 230 yards and goes nuts.

Well, that's the problem with this division.

Like, you could, you could saddle a team with two wins for the season, but they could go two and four in the division because it's so bad.

Right.

It would be funny if Trump, instead of declaring war on the weird shit he declares war on, was just like,

got a burn to saddle about the NFC South.

It's like, I've had it.

That's it.

We've got to improve this.

I've decided to send the troops down to fuck with the NFC South.

They're relegated.

Yeah.

Well, we got to get rid of this entire division.

Right.

It's terrible.

It's bad football.

It's bad.

We're bringing the SEC in to take their place.

All right.

We're going to take a break and then we're going to do NFC West.

NFC West is up.

Most wins by a division.

As I mentioned earlier, NFC North was 45 wins last year.

Could this be a candidate for you to have the most wins this year?

No.

NFC West.

No.

Okay.

No.

All right.

Glad we covered that.

San Francisco is our first team over 10 and a half.

Football fans get amnesia every August.

They forget what happened the season before.

They punted on the fact that San Francisco was 6-11 last year, made a bunch of excuses for them.

Meanwhile, they lost like 10 starters or close to be starters.

And it's a pretty top-heavy team.

I thought this stat was incredible.

San Francisco, for the past 22 years,

they've either made the NFC title game or missed the playoffs with no in-between.

22 years, going back to 2003.

What the hell is that?

That's good.

I would take that.

How is that possible?

I would take that in a heartbeat.

That's great.

I have them

division plus 155, conference 9 to 1, playoffs minus 200.

It's been rising non-stop.

I'm under.

Yeah,

when we did the over-under guessing, the win total.

I don't know, what did we do?

Is that what we did?

We did this in Mike.

We kind of did, yeah, we did like when the first things came out, what jumped out to us is the gut reactions.

This is what I got off the zoom.

This is the last one we did.

I got off the zoom.

I had to go for a walk.

I was like, do I know anything about fucking football?

This is crazy.

How are they favored to win the division, let alone, what is it?

Nine and a half, 10?

Yeah.

10 and a half?

10 and a half.

And yet, I took this time and I was like, damn it, they tanked for a goddamn easy schedule.

They freaking did it.

They did it.

So all you really have to trust is, and this is a lot, like if Trenton Williams and Purdy aren't playing in the same game, you're kind of in trouble.

Like they're so top heavy, right?

Their money's in Purdy, Warner, Kittle, Bosa, Ayuk, you know.

So those guys, there's $113 million right there.

I'm going to go 10 and 7.

I can't believe how easy this schedule is.

They were the most injured team last year.

And it goes as far.

I should say CMC is also obviously in that equation with Purdy and Williams.

So I don't know.

I'm going 10 and

I went 10-7 as well.

So that means we're both under.

They had six 2024 wins.

They beat the Jets, the Pats, Seattle, Dallas, Tampa, and Chicago.

And the Seattle win was on a Thursday night.

Tampa win was without Evans, Godwin, or Macmillan.

They had some awful, awful, awful coaching and special team stuff that's now been forgotten by history.

They had the best DBOA of an 11-los team since 1978.

So that would indicate maybe this would be a little better.

But But they're, you know, they had to pay Purdy.

Yep.

That ruined all their depth of good players.

They have this kind of, you know, studs and scraps team.

Ayuk's not coming back probably till October.

Yeah, they got a while.

So they look like they're scrounging for receivers.

McCaffrey's allegedly healthy now.

We'll see where he looks like in six weeks.

D-line situation is bad.

They drafted Michael Williams.

Is it Michael?

Or is it Mikkel?

Is it Mikkel?

I think it's Michael.

Mikkel Williams?

Yeah.

Yeah, Mikkel.

The Edge from Georgia, yeah.

So he's opposite.

Bad preseason.

Yeah, right.

They thought they'd get more from him.

And yet the schedule is so awful.

I don't know how they don't win 10 games.

I know.

So basically what we're predicting is this will be the first time they make the playoffs.

But don't win, go to the title game.

Yeah.

Yeah.

They lost Hargrave.

They lose Floyd, Malik Collins, but they get Robert Salah.

Oh, I screwed up.

I have them going eight and nine.

All right.

What?

I forgot that I changed this.

Yeah, I went with some other teams in this division.

Okay.

Yeah, I couldn't do it.

Even with the schedule, I couldn't do it.

Sure, you want to look at it again?

No, I mean,

we're getting Groggy the same.

I went eight and nine for them.

And

even though the schedule, I just couldn't get there with the rest of the four games worse teams of the winning record.

Plus nine net rest.

Robert Salah back.

I think that's good.

I know we made fun of them.

Sometimes these guys are defensive coordinators and that's that's what they do.

They have two decent guys in their defense and they're both really good.

Bosa and Warner.

Yeah.

They have no injury flexibility whatsoever.

Right.

That's what you have to believe.

Kiddo, McCaffrey, Purdy, Bosa, Warner.

It's five stars in an above average offensive line and Shanahan.

And I just think there are better teams in the division.

Going into the schedule, I was like, I'm going to hammer this team.

Like I'm under.

I'm sticking to our guns and the March podcast.

And then I saw the schedule.

I'm like, shit, shit,

they're going to beat Jacksonville.

They're going to beat Atlanta.

They're going to beat Carolina.

They're going to beat Tennessee and Indianapolis.

10 wins.

I have, we're both under anyway.

Rams overs nine and a half.

Divisions plus 200.

Second place is plus 220.

Playoffs minus 144.

Two questions.

Can Matthew Stafford hold up?

But seriously, can Matthew Stafford hold up?

Are my two questions?

I'll take the second one.

What do you got?

I've been embarrassed by the Rams over the years, right?

Like, I said they were going to have the season from hell two years ago when Stafford had spine problems, friggin' spine, 32 at the time, it's fine.

And then they made the playoffs, and I'm fading them again.

I think they were lucky to be in a division where the 49ers were bad.

I don't think that's going to happen.

And I like Arizona to be resilient.

They had a lot of offensive line injuries.

The thing that

is is tough about, aside from McVay being the coach, they always have a third-rounder that comes out out of nowhere and becomes on his way to being the best in the game.

So

that might be Josiah Stewart, the Edge from Michigan.

I don't know.

You never want to stick a guy with McVay with six wins, but he's made the playoffs five in the last seven years.

That's what I'm doing.

I think eventually it's going to be Jimmy G or Stetson Bennett, and those guys aren't going to get it done.

They upgraded to Devontae Adams from Cup.

Yep.

Seems like an upgrade.

They had this

Laric Johnson left tackle situation with the blood clots, but they think he's going to be ready to play.

Linebackers aren't great.

Defensive back might be shaky.

They're 20th in defensive DBOA last year.

There's a lot of reasons not to like them.

I just think they have a lot of good players.

Like when I was doing my rankings, I had them at 22.

The schedule is pretty easy.

I trust McVay.

And honestly, with Garoppolo,

we've seen McVay rejuvenate different guys.

So we've had a rejuvenated quarterback every year for the last couple.

We had Baker.

We had Geno Smith.

Last year, we had Darnold.

I think that's.

And I wonder if Garoppolo is the rejuvenated guy this year.

I don't know.

I don't know.

So best case scenario, Stafford is okay with the back.

But I don't know, maybe he rejuvenates Jimmy G.

I just.

I hate betting against it.

This is probably, I'm going to regret this the most, but that's where I had him.

So this goes back to the conundrums we have during the futures.

You have the Rams, you have the Niners, and I think you have to pick one of those.

I don't think they both make it again because you also have the three and three out rule.

Both those teams, or one of those teams, made the playoffs last year.

They had 10 wins last year, so

if they go back to

out of it, you're going over.

Going,

yeah, nine and a half.

I'm going over.

I'm under 10 wins.

I'm way under.

I think I have seven.

Arizona's eight and a half.

this is everyone's hipster team.

Shield did a thing on his podcast about this.

Yeah, that this is the uh

everybody loves how they're coached, and there's good defensive and offensive metrics with them, and people just like this team.

I don't really get it because I did all my talent ranking stuff, and I was, I just didn't.

I had Connor, Harrison, McBride, Sweat, and Baker as the only guys who you would even give a chip designation.

I only had them six points total.

Uh, I have some real concerns about Kyler Murray.

Is that cool?

Considering he's 36 and 54 or 45.

Yeah.

And

I just like the other teams in the division more.

I don't really understand the case.

You're going to hate me.

You're going to

11 and 6.

I think Gannon has a shot at Coach of the Year.

Even the cards, the uncut cards are laughing at me right now.

They got the offensive line coming back.

I know he has to be better in the fourth quarter and closing out games and down the stretch and all that.

But, you know, they open at New Orleans, Carolina, at San Francisco, Tennessee and at Indy is in there.

You know, they could be like five and one or four and one.

And they're like, oh, watch out for this team.

And then once they get a little confidence, they could be, all right, they signed Sweat, Tomlinson, Campbell.

They drafted Nolan and Birch for defense.

Yeah, except Nolan's already hurt.

Yeah, I know he's hurt.

Yeah.

I just,

they have Chuck Bryce, Cam Richardson.

Those are four of the first six weeks.

Their special teams is awful.

Like that, they have to fix like dumb shit.

They had gave up 31 yards per kickoff return.

Dumb Kyler Murray plays.

Yeah.

So, I don't know.

I think Marvin Harrison Jr.

could have a better year.

Bottom five last three years and injury luck.

I think it actually comes together for the Arizona Cardinals, 11-6.

I can't believe you.

Yep.

That's it.

I have them at 9-8.

And I really deferring to the schedule stuff.

The schedules, we talked about this, this NFC West going against the two Souths is just an absolute godsend for both, all four of those teams.

I like the other team more, and I have Seattle winning the division.

Yeah,

five to one to win the division.

Five to one.

That's pretty good.

Plus 164 for the playoffs.

They finished 10-7 last year, South.

Yep.

And here's the crucial thing, because we haven't talked about this yet.

This is the nobody believes in us team.

Everybody believes in the Cardinals.

All the hipsters love them.

Everyone's like making cases for them.

Who's making cases for the Seahawks?

It's just like Pittsburgh last year.

I think there's,

first of all, new offensive coordinator, revamped offensive line.

Everybody loves that Gray Zabel.

They're doing some zone blocking with Kubiak.

They have good running backs.

Looks like that Torrey Horton they might have hit on as a rookie receiver.

JSN, I think, is one of the, he's not one of the five best receivers in the league, but he's in the top 10.

And then people just see Darnold and they're like, we're out oh sorry you don't like the guy who went 14 and three last year yeah um

i don't know is going for geno smith to darnold is that a downgrade i mean i'm not i don't want to crap on him because i have them at nine and eight so they were 10 and seven so i think they're going to be one game less i think mike mcdonald got a little bit of a raw deal where he had geno smith and he had dk and tyler locket now it's like yeah you got sam darnold and cooper cup but um

he's pretty good yeah so they were seven and one on the road last year probably not happen again six and two and one score score games.

Probably not happening again.

You want to go over the quarterbacks they faced?

Rookie Bonix, rookie Caleb Williams, backup, Jacoby Brissette, Skylar Thompson, Tim Boyle, Jimmy G, Kirk Cousins, Kylo Murray twice.

I know I like him this year.

Aaron Rodgers.

I feel like we lost money in their division bet multiple times.

Yeah, we definitely have.

So, you know, they're going to be able to get them.

I want to throw the schedule back at you because everyone says the Niners have the easiest schedule.

They play the same AFC South, NFC South combo.

Yep.

They play Pittsburgh, Washington, and Minnesota as their second place teams.

And we don't have any of those teams in the playoffs.

That's why I have them with nine.

There's a home field advantage that they used to have at least.

I really like the coaching staff.

I thought McDonald, like people forget, he was the Ben Johnson of last year

as this defensive guru.

So I don't know.

I just, I think they have enough talent.

I had them with four chippers on defense, good special teams.

I thought they had another great draft.

They've had two good drafts in a row, which is a good sign.

They didn't really spend on offensive line, and half of Darnold's dropbacks are three-plus seconds.

Yeah, so he's like bottom five when pressured.

So that's got to be

if you go through all four teams in this division, it's the hardest division, you could make a case against all of them pretty convincingly for sure.

And I think this one has the least variance for I know they can run the ball, I think they can be a top-five defense.

And I think they can make some plays with JSN.

Darnold isn't going to go from being good last year to just awful.

And I believe in the team.

All right.

So

for playoff teams, I have Philly, Green Bay, Tampa, and Seattle as the four division winners.

And then I have Detroit, Chicago, and the Rams as playoff teams.

So the only new teams I have in the NFC are Chicago and Seattle.

Yeah, we're all over the place, you and I.

I have the Eagles, Lions, Bucs, Cardinals, Packers, 49ers, Falcons are my wild cards.

Falcons.

You're going to regret that.

Two South teams.

Can I put an extra bet on you regretting the Falcons teams?

What am I doing?

One of those teams, right?

How do I take two South teams?

Unbelievable.

All right.

That's it for the NFC.

Thanks to Gaho.

Thanks to Saruti.

We're going to

bid adie for this two-part pod, but we're taping a third part that's going to be the futures draft that we did last year.

And on Sunday, we're going to do guest alliance for week one, our 19th year.

And then at the end, we're going to put the futures drafted.

We don't have to take them through the magic of editing.

All that stuff.

Yeah.

So you're going to see us on Zoom and then we're going to be back here like we went backwards.

We'll be doing different shit.

Yeah.

Yeah.

How was this?

Good pace for you?

I loved it.

Yeah.

Similarly, less than three hours.

Good pace for us.

You know, I got to stretch my back.

I went to the doctor real quick and I gained 10 pounds.

And I knew that.

I knew that.

But then she's like, oh, you gained 10 pounds.

I said, listen to me.

Last time I saw you, I went crazy losing weight just so that I wouldn't come in the heaviest ever.

That's not going to be me anymore.

Whatever I am, I'm coming in at.

If that affects our friendship, so be it.

But that's not what I'm doing anymore.

I go to family reunions.

Everyone looks like me.

This is what I'm supposed to be.

So do you feel like we had a good hand on this year or no?

I think we did.

You don't want to talk about my doctor visits anymore?

No, I'm just, I'm, I like it.

I think there are definitely some teams like the ones we went over in the West that I could just be, look foolish the whole year and maybe overrating the NFC South.

But what do you think?

Predict.

Go ahead.

12 I'm 12.

I think I'm 19 and 13 this year.

Really?

Yeah, how about you?

What a regression that was.

Yeah, big regression.

18.

Me and the Washington Commanders.

Yeah, yeah.

I'll say 6 and 26.

Cuz, good job by you.

Good job by you.

Must be 21 plus in president-slick states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino, or 18 plus in president in D.C., Kentucky, or Wyoming.

Gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLBRE or visit rg-help.com.

Call 1-88-789-7777, or visit ccpg.org/slash chat in Connecticut, or visit mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland.

Hope is here.

Visit gamblinghelpline ma.org or call 800-327-5050 for 24-7 support in Massachusetts.

Or call 1-877-8-HOPE-NY or text HOPENY in New York.