The Annual AFC Over/Unders With Cousin Sal

Speaker 1 This episode is brought to you by Built. Renting can have benefits, especially if you use Built.

Speaker 1 Built is a rewards program designed for renters, letting you earn more from what's probably your largest monthly expense.

Speaker 1 By paying rent through Built, you earn flexible points that can be redeemed through hundreds of hotels and airlines, a future rent payment, and more.

Speaker 1 Built also makes your entire neighborhood more rewarding. By simply eating at your favorite local restaurants or going to certain fitness studios, you can earn additional points.

Speaker 1 So maybe finally, you can take your family in that dream vacation you've been putting off. Get more from your running experience.
Sign up at joinbuilt.com/slash bill.

Speaker 1 That's j-o-i-n-b-i-l-t dot com slash bill. This episode is brought to you by Visit Myrtle Beach.
If you're dreaming of a beachy summer escape, then head to the beach.

Speaker 1 In Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, you'll find 60 miles of stunning coastline, hundreds of attractions to explore, and the South's newest foodie hotspot. This is where you play hard and beach easy.

Speaker 1 You belong at the beach, Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. Start planning your summer adventure at visitmyrtlebeach.com.
Bill Simmons podcast brought to you by the Ringer Podcast Network. We're back.

Speaker 1 Yeah. We're back.

Speaker 1 It's over under time. We are going to have multiple parts Wednesday night, Thursday morning.

Speaker 1 Then Sunday, we're going to be guest alliance, our future stuff, and we're just in here just banging out in the new studio, banging out all kinds of future bets.

Speaker 1 Real quick before we dive into the overders, shout out to Fandel for something new. They launched a futures parlay feature, which means you can parlay player milestone bets with Team Futures.

Speaker 1 Are we going to do this again? I thought we could just talk.

Speaker 1 We're going to do the whole gambling thing. We're apparently going to talk about gambling.

Speaker 1 Oh, wait. I can't wait to talk about gambling.

Speaker 1 Yeah, so if you think like Burrow is going to have most passing yards, but the Bengals are going to go under, parlay those babies together and you're good to go.

Speaker 1 Check out the Ringer Specialist tab on Fandel Sportsbook for more of our favorite picks. Shield, JJ, Raheem, the rest of the Ringer crew, they're all there.
New rewatchables coming on Monday.

Speaker 1 It's our 400th movie. I'm not going to say what the movie is, but it's one you've probably seen.

Speaker 1 The cousin and I, we've gone, this is our 19th year. 19.
We're going to take a break, Pearl Jam, and then we're off with the AFC.

Speaker 1 All right, cuz we usually start with the AFC. What we do every year is we do the over-runders come out, we start at them in April.
You even came on my pod this year. We talked about it.

Speaker 1 Then we look at them and we keep looking at them. They change.
The alt lines come out. We keep looking.

Speaker 1 People start banging certain teams, certain teams they don't like. And just the money lines change.
We're debating yesterday about Buffalo. It's like, which over-under do we use?

Speaker 1 12 and a half or 11 and a half? Because there's juice on both. I love it.
I can't get enough of it. It's great.
It's great because we have like four months until we lose these bets. Not you.

Speaker 1 You were excellent last year. By the way, I feel like I'm staring.
It's going to take a minute. I feel like I'm staring into a kaleidoscope.
It's also colorful and pretty. You have uncut cards.

Speaker 1 It's like

Speaker 1 a preteen opened a museum in 1976.

Speaker 1 NBA hole.

Speaker 1 I put some football on cuts so you wouldn't think I was an NBA hole. I'm going to cut these in the middle of the night.
I love it.

Speaker 1 That would be the angriest you ever made me with the prank you cutting up the uncuts.

Speaker 1 So I did really well last year. And it's funny because when we do this stuff, And we talk about teams, we talk about regression.
It's like, oh, Washton, all these things went right last year.

Speaker 1 And this is such a classic regression season.

Speaker 1 I think I'm going to have a regression season. Really? Yeah, I don't have a feel for this year at all.
Should you have retired like Marvelous Marmon Hagley? I thought about it.

Speaker 1 It would have been funny if I just, yeah, dropped the mic and that was it. I was done.
I would take 20 and 12 this year right now. Oh, yeah.
Yeah. What is that? What percentage is that? That enough?

Speaker 1 I was taking it.

Speaker 1 You could tuck me into 19 and 13. Okay.
So I was trying to figure out why it was so much harder this year.

Speaker 1 And I think it's because of reasons that we'll go into when we hit the specific teams.

Speaker 1 But teams that check a lot of the boxes, there's this one thing where I'm like, ah, like the Giants are a good example. A lot of boxes for the out of nowhere sleeper.

Speaker 1 And then you look at their schedule and you're like, that's it. Oh, my lord.
I had them 90%. Then we'll get to the NFC in like three and a half hours, but I had them 90% there.

Speaker 1 And then I looked at the schedule. I'm like, where are these wins coming from? So there's that.

Speaker 1 And I think we just have more good quarterbacks than we usually have because we've had a couple of good classes of QBs come in.

Speaker 1 There's like the Drake May Caleb Williams class is kind of ready to ascend. We have all these guys in their prime.

Speaker 1 And you go through, and there's really only two quote, two teams with like genuinely shitty quarterbacks plus Indianapolis, which I'm happy to shoehorn in as the third one.

Speaker 1 We have a good crop of 26-year-old second-year players.

Speaker 1 They figured it out.

Speaker 1 Yeah, so I think that makes it harder because... It's easy to be like, oh, that team's going to suck.
Like New Orleans, like, ah, they're going to suck.

Speaker 1 But there's not enough of those this year. We're doing AFC first.

Speaker 1 we're gonna go team by team and explain the over-under conundrum i know you did in the in the opening but there's four or five lines where the 11 and a half over is minus 140 but the 10 and a half under is minus 140 right so it's like right we didn't know which tight some of these aren't tighter than the others so we didn't yeah there's basically there's juice on both numbers so buffalo is a good example they're 12 and a half the under has the juice you go 11 and a half the over has the juice right so we tried to look at the minus 140 range for all this.

Speaker 1 And what we do, Vegas puts out these over-unders. We talk about each team and we decide, are they going over? Are they going under the bet? So we'll start with Buffalo.
They're over.

Speaker 1 We settled on 12.5. That's got some juice.
Plus 150. And their conference, plus 350 for that, 7-1 for the Super Bowl, plus 250.

Speaker 1 If you think they can be the one seed, and they were 13 and 4 last year, almost three to one favorites to win the division. And here's my question for you.
Josh Allen, 29 years old.

Speaker 1 I just said, I think he's the best. That part's true.
I just said I think he's the best quarterback in the league, even though I know Mahomes has the championship belt.

Speaker 1 But I thought Allen start to finish was the best guy last year.

Speaker 1 Four top five MVP finishes won the MVP last year. 61-22 is the starter in the 2020s.
But he's basically Tommy Hearns.

Speaker 1 He's in all these great fights, but he never wins the fight. Where's that card?

Speaker 1 Oh, Tommy's ticket. There's a Tommy ticket behind you.

Speaker 1 Hearns Leonard is behind you.

Speaker 1 But we've also seen Steve Young.

Speaker 1 A couple MVPs got over the hump. He won when he was in 1994.
Peyton Manning, two MVPs, four top five, won the Super Bowl at age 30.

Speaker 1 I'm going all in on this is Josh Allen getting over the hump. I'm picking Buffalo to win the Super Bowl.
I'm just going to do it. Oh, we're doing it like that.
I'm just telling you now. I'm in.

Speaker 1 I'm riding Buffalo this year. Do I have to get my Super Bowl? No, you do not.
No, save yours. Okay.
I'm just saying, I'm not sure. It might be very similar.
Yeah.

Speaker 1 This is, I'm just all in on the Josh Allen match proper ride year. This is because this is the first team we do every year.
And I feel like both of us try to get cute. All right.

Speaker 1 How can Buffalo get upended and not even win the AFC East? Let's stop with that. As long as Josh Allen.
Get it last year. It took Aaron Rodgers.
Right. I know.
So, oh, God, shaking my head.

Speaker 1 But you, if, yes, I think the only thing you can figure out here is if they win 11, 12, or 13 games.

Speaker 1 I think that's the only thing, barring injury with Josh Allen, like you said, the best in the league. I mean, they won 12 playoff games in five years.

Speaker 1 It's not right to blame him for the losses. I think in those playoff losses, they allowed 33 points a game.
So he can only do so much. You could say the same for Lamar Jackson.
We'll get to him.

Speaker 1 But they signed, re-signed everybody. They gave him 55 million.
They signed Rousseau, Shakir. Joey Bosa, they bring in as an edge.
They lose Von Miller. His best years behind him.
I think it's fine.

Speaker 1 They traveled the fewest miles out of any team. I'm I'm going to, though, all that said, I'm going to go 12 wins, six consecutive division title.
You're going under.

Speaker 1 I guess that's under, yeah, if we're going 12 and a half. I wanted to go under, and I went through the schedule, which was surprisingly light.
They go, so the AFCs play the north and the south,

Speaker 1 which is really important because the south, I think, is probably the worst division, unless you want to make the AFC South case. And then AFC North,

Speaker 1 other than Baltimore, like Pittsburgh since then, and then Cleveland, obviously. They played the first place schedule, so they have Philly, KC, and Houston.
But here's what I thought:

Speaker 1 conspiracy bill. I don't, it's too hard for me to get out of this seat and put on the conspiracy bill outfit.
Oh, wait. It felt like the league stacked 2025 for Buffalo a little bit.
Do you think so?

Speaker 1 Home games. Yeah.
Baltimore, KC, Philly, Cincy, and Tampa. Right.
All of them home. Road games, they're playing five bad 2024 teams.
Plus Atlanta, they're at Houston, and they're at Pittsburgh.

Speaker 1 They might, other than at Houston, which I think will be tough, especially with Houston's defense, they might not play an above 500 team on the road.

Speaker 1 And then they have all these people coming to them. So that was one of the reasons.
They officially have the easiest road schedule in the league if you go by projected over-unders, not by last year.

Speaker 1 And 21-2 at home, by the way. This is early 90s Bills we're talking about now over the last three years 21 and 2.

Speaker 1 So I have them basically 12 and 4 going into that last game, week 18 at home against the the Jets.

Speaker 1 And last year, they tanked this grove of the Patriots. I think they just win that one.
But I have them slightly over. Sal.

Speaker 1 I think they're the one seed, a bet that I really like, actually, at plus 250.

Speaker 1 And

Speaker 1 I think they're 13-4, 14-3, somewhere in there. That's where it ends.
All right. That's good.
All right. I say 12.
I have to go slightly under. You go over.

Speaker 1 I did my crazy psychotic player rankings this year with the offense, defense, coaches, offensive line.

Speaker 1 And the Bills I had at 29. I had Allen as the top QB.
Their O-line is the top four offensive line. James Cook, he's in there.
You could talk maybe.

Speaker 1 I didn't give Shakir a point, but you could talk me into it.

Speaker 1 And then Rousseau, Jones, Milano, Benford, Johnson. They have five chippers on the D.
And I think the coaching staff's at least top 10. Right.

Speaker 1 And then home field advantage, you would have to say is probably top four. I mean, that's 93% or whatever that is.
Yeah.

Speaker 1 So, you know, the angriest you were at yourself this week is passing on josh allen as the one pick in our ringer fantasy league

Speaker 1 no the angriest i was was last year

Speaker 1 that i did the jets to win buffalo not to make the and if i had switched that i would have gone 29 and three last year that was a single and i was battling back and forth well i get my revenge on rogers in about five teams go get it all right so you're under on buffalo yeah but i 12 is like 12 and 5 is a good year for this team i know they play the first play schedule every year but i feel like teams are gunning for them a little more.

Speaker 1 I do like that road schedule, though. I really do.
Well, let me ask you this: you don't have to say the team, but do you have a team finishing with a better record than that in the AFC? In the AFC?

Speaker 1 No, I do not.

Speaker 1 So it's one seed. So you think they could be the one seed? And I mean, then they can tank against the Jets there.

Speaker 1 Well, that was one other thing I was thinking with the Jets, because if it's like 12 and 4 and they have the one seed at stake, maybe they go for that game. So I'm going over for them.

Speaker 1 Next up is going to be the New England Patriots. So

Speaker 1 we talk about this every year. The

Speaker 1 kind of can't believe they made the playoffs list, which is basically anybody with odds from, I would say, maybe plus 120 to plus 250.

Speaker 1 2024 had two teams in this range that made the playoffs. Tampa was plus 144.

Speaker 1 Pittsburgh, plus 194.

Speaker 1 The year before, Green Bay plus 138. year before Miami plus 142.
And the Giants with Danny Dimes plus 225.

Speaker 1 So we know we're getting at least one team, probably two from this list, which is, I won't read all the odds, but Arizona, Pittsburgh, Atlanta, New England's plus 160.

Speaker 1 We were about to talk about Seattle, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Chicago, Dallas. Miami is plus 220.
Carolina is plus 250. I'm guessing two to three teams from that list, right?

Speaker 1 I was going to say three to four total out, three to four in, but yeah, maybe three. Yeah.

Speaker 1 So I have the Pats over, and I actually have them in the playoffs. Yeah.
And you can't call me homer because last year I was adamant they were going to be the worst team in the league. No, it's fine.

Speaker 1 Somehow they were until the last week. Yeah.
Joe Milton had the game of his leg.

Speaker 1 I spent all summer trying to figure out a way to take them under because, well, this number is another one that stuck between seven and a half and eight and a half.

Speaker 1 It was seven and a half for a while and then it kind of bumped. And now it's like a legitimate eight and a half.
Yeah. So I think they win nine games.
I'm not going to shit on them.

Speaker 1 It's so much more fun if you think they're going to be great and then they just fail. And, you know, but better coach, upgraded in free agency.
They drafted well on paper.

Speaker 1 And that schedule, seven of the first nine teams under 500 last year. Like, forget about tanking for picks.
Like, some of these teams tanked for a better schedule, and it worked.

Speaker 1 It really is spectacular. Number two, easiest schedule versus number two, toughest last year.
And they're favored in 11 games. So if you're giving them nine wins, you're not being a homer.

Speaker 1 They're favored in 11 games. And that was the case from the, I bet on them pretty early.

Speaker 1 You know, AFC North, NFC South, and then the fourth place schedule. And you just go through

Speaker 1 and you're like, all right, I think we can beat them. Yeah, I think we can beat them too.

Speaker 1 This is the team that checks the most boxes for new coach, easy schedule, basically what Washington had last year.

Speaker 1 You could count Drake May as a new quarterback, even though he played 10 games last year.

Speaker 1 They loaded up.

Speaker 1 I was higher on them about three weeks ago. They spent a lot of money on the defense, and they have four guys that I get points on defense.
They had a great draft.

Speaker 1 That's what has to improve, right? They were dead last in pressure.

Speaker 1 Yeah, they're going to have a better defense. I don't think it can get to be a top five defense, but I think think it'd be top 10.

Speaker 1 There definitely is a depth issue with them because

Speaker 1 our Lord and Savior, Bill Belichick,

Speaker 1 the drafts were just an abomination down the stretch there. And then Cole Strange ironically got waved.
Yeah, yeah, yeah. And that you go back to Cole Strange, and I think I have this right.

Speaker 1 They trade out of the pick to Kansas City that Kansas City used to take Trent McDuffie, who's awesome.

Speaker 1 Then they go to where they took Strange and they took him right in front of George Kurloftis. So the Chiefs get these two guys who are like blue chip guys for them.
And Belichick took a guard.

Speaker 1 It was weird when it happened.

Speaker 1 It was kind of like, are you trying to sabotage the Patriots? This is Terra. McVay famously laughed.
So anyway, all those drafts. Boo-hoo, boo-hoo is what I have to say to that.

Speaker 1 But also, listen, let me give you this now. Uh-oh.
Before we move on, speaking of Drake May, remember last year. Is it a log? Well, last year I got you.
You remember what I got you? It was a signed

Speaker 1 pylon.

Speaker 1 Where is that, by the way? I need that for the studio.

Speaker 1 Drake May signed the the pylon uh oh and this year it's a signed drake may pylon that i found in a freaking closet that they were going to empty into a dumpster it's the same gift it's the same thing i'm not letting you throw that out i'm following i didn't want to throw that mojo you were in the patriots would have had five oh it's great it was about

Speaker 1 i rescued a pylon i mean it was really well we moved studios like 17

Speaker 1 all right that's how this looks great there go ahead he's laughing he knows it's not staying there. He knows it's not staying.
Look how great this is. That had gone.

Speaker 1 We would have won four games this year if that went trash. Can I give you the Pats' first four? Yeah.
I know you know it already.

Speaker 1 Home Raiders

Speaker 1 at the Dolphins, which the Pats don't have a great history yet. Home Steelers, home Panthers.

Speaker 1 Mild 4-0 possibilities. There's also, oh my God, I can't believe we're 1-3 and now we're playing Buffalo in Buffalo on Sunday night.
I thought the season was going to go better. Yeah.

Speaker 1 The case for the Pats, beyond all the stuff we mentioned, is that the AFC kind of sucks. And we're going to have a weird six seed and we're going to have a weird seven seed.

Speaker 1 And you could talk yourself into eight teams. You'd be like, I like the Bengals.
Well, their defense is going to be awful. Yep.
Right. So, all right, go take the Bengals.

Speaker 1 Like, there's something wrong with every team. In a tougher schedule.
Yeah. That seven seed, I had like four teams, I think, at nine and eight.
And I did a weird tiebreaker and have the

Speaker 1 Patriots advancing to the playoffs. How many teams did you have in a six six-seed or seven-seed slot? Because I got to the point where I test drove Indianapolis.
No.

Speaker 1 And no, this is when they had Richardson. No.

Speaker 1 I test drove them for a second. I'm like,

Speaker 1 and Tyler Warren. And then I was like, oh my God, get me out of this car.
What am I doing? You don't even wear a seatbelt. That is dangerous shit from test driving Richardson.
Yeah. So.

Speaker 1 Two other things, just quickly. I think the defense is going to be actually pretty good and maybe even really good.
They get Andrew as a Vrabel guy, get him in free agency.

Speaker 1 Vrabel has made the two coaches that seem, and I could maybe throw him Pete Carroll too, but have come in and feel like they've changed culture immediately are him and Ben Johnson.

Speaker 1 Like you read the Ben Johnson stuff or hear the stories and it's just like, it's just like a different team. Maybe Iber fluce last year.

Speaker 1 We had the worst coach in the league, which is saying something because Dennis Allen was there. I don't even think Mayo is going to ever be in football again.
Right. Right.
And it was just a mess.

Speaker 1 The GM was a mess. A lot of the dumb contracts they gave out, they're already trying to get out of.
So Vrabel came in, he cleaned it up. But

Speaker 1 look, I really believe in Drake May. We talked about him a bunch last year on the not assigned pylon, but him as a player.
Yeah.

Speaker 1 I really believe he's talented. My one fear with him is just that him taking dumb hits because he kept doing that last year.
Yeah. Can he stay in the field for 17 games?

Speaker 1 But I genuinely think this could be a breakout thing. I have them at 10 and 7.
I think he'll be good. Why? He's as good, I think, as Bo Nick's.
I'll say that now. I'm sure I'll get shit for it.

Speaker 1 it, but you know, they're not going to lose because of him. Defending, it's a defensive

Speaker 1 10 and 7. It's a lot to turn around, though.
That defense was really rough. That's a four-win team.
What did they have? And you could thank all those coaches for giving you a turn.

Speaker 1 But we talk about new coach bumps is usually five wins, and then the schedule is super easy. Four or five wins, but then the schedule is crazy.

Speaker 1 I'll give you the wins: Raiders, Dolphins,

Speaker 1 one of two with Steelers, Panthers. I think they beat the Saints, Browns, Falcons, Jets,

Speaker 1 Giants home Monday night.

Speaker 1 Yeah.

Speaker 1 Yeah, I mean, Jets, Dolphins last week. I think that's 10.
Yeah, I have nine. You have 10.
You know what?

Speaker 1 You just don't want a dumb thing in Miami. Oh, they played him too early.
It was 108 on the turf. They made him wear the dark.
They made him wear a color. They don't even have these jerseys.

Speaker 1 They made him wear it. Although, you probably want to catch Miami while they're seeming super dysfunctional.
10 plus wins, plus 190, if you like the 10.

Speaker 1 But I think the playoffs is probably a better ballot, plus 160. 9 and 8 is going to make the playoffs with one of those spots.
That's how I have it.

Speaker 1 I couldn't get a lot of these teams to 10, but one of them was a 60. Pat's had four guys on defense that I gave points to: Williams, Spillane, Davis, and Gonzalez.

Speaker 1 And this Spillane is already called here. The only thing that hasn't been great is Roman Anthony has completely taken Drake May's corner in Boston as like the next defense of Boston.
Yeah.

Speaker 1 So Drake May's got to pull that back. You want to take a win away, maybe?

Speaker 1 I was thinking about it. I was like, Roman Anthony tax.

Speaker 1 There's a tariff going on between teams. Everybody loves Roman Anthony.
Drake May's like, guys, I just got here.

Speaker 1 Get your Drake Major. We'll be done in late September.
He'll be all right. Jets, six and a half.

Speaker 1 This was five and a half at one point.

Speaker 1 The over for six and a half is plus 120. They really wanted to do the under.

Speaker 1 Eight plus wins is plus 190. If you think they're a playoff team, if you believe in Justin Field, plus 470,

Speaker 1 they were 5-12 last year.

Speaker 1 That feels around where they're going to be again. I just, here's my big question.

Speaker 1 Is there any way to make Justin Fields a winning QB? I just don't see it. I just don't think he's accurate enough.

Speaker 1 And we saw it in Pittsburgh where he was in a great situation, and they kind of bailed on him after five games. He just wasn't good enough.
He holds the ball too long. And that is.

Speaker 1 almost could be the number one metric you look at for quarterbacks. That's a Shadir thing.
Yeah. Yeah.
I know he runs better than any of those guys, but,

Speaker 1 you know, he can luck into winning games, but I don't think he's going to be the reason they win games.

Speaker 1 I know he and Garrett Wilson, they had the thing in Ohio State, but I think they're going to be a frisky team that's going to win six games, but I don't see anything more than that.

Speaker 1 It's just kind of tough. And, you know, Aaron Glenn's good, replaces Salah and Ulbric.
They have a new OC in there, the Lions pass coordinator. Hackett's gone.
All that stuff is good.

Speaker 1 They re-signed Sauce Gardner. I'm looking at their

Speaker 1 receiver room is tough. Yeah.
The Brees Hall, Braylon Allen thing, Braylon Allen's a big fantasy sleeper right now.

Speaker 1 The fact that they thought they had this really special running back in Brees Hall, and

Speaker 1 now he's going to be a third-down running back. Nothing.
Yeah. I don't know.
You know, they signed a couple of cheap secondary players, but I don't know. I don't, I don't see Fields taking them.

Speaker 1 We'll know week one, right? We'll kind of know. I mean, will we know against the Steelers? Like, that's going to be huge and fun.
That's the other thing I really did not like about the Jets.

Speaker 1 Steelers home. Good defense they're going against.

Speaker 1 Bills home at Bucs and then at Dolphins on a Monday night. But that feels a little o-enforced.
I'm just,

Speaker 1 both of us were out on fields last year. I guess that if you're going anti-regression, they blew six fourth quarter leads last year.
Yeah. They had a bizarre coaching situation with A.

Speaker 1 Kid Salah got bounced. Is that why they have two primetime games this year versus six last year? Yeah.
Yeah. So I think that it might be better for them, actually.

Speaker 1 They took that membo pretty high, the offensive lineman. Yeah.

Speaker 1 What was he, seventh?

Speaker 1 Pretty rocky preseason. There were some tough videos with him.
And it seems like the guy the Saints got, Kelvin Banks, was actually a little more reliable.

Speaker 1 Yeah, they lose Devontae Adams, DJ Reed, who's, you know,

Speaker 1 arguably better than Stevens. I don't know.
who they got. Kinlaw's gone.
Hassan Reddick wasn't a good fit there. But yeah, the tackle's a good run and pass protector, but it might have reached them.

Speaker 1 Yeah, I'm around.

Speaker 1 I'm under here,

Speaker 1 and I'm actually right at the number. I'm 6-11 for them.
Yeah, that's right. Six, bro.
So the new coaches, Brabel,

Speaker 1 Glenn for the Jets, Cohen for the Jags,

Speaker 1 P. Carroll replacing our guy Antonio Pierce,

Speaker 1 Ben Johnson for Ibrufluce.

Speaker 1 your team, which we'll talk about in part two. And then

Speaker 1 your guy, Kellen Moore. we only had seven new coaches.
Usually it feels like we have like 10. Well, the next team we're about to talk about might have a new coach in like three weeks.

Speaker 1 Miami, over seven and a half. I bet this immediately.

Speaker 1 I still can't believe the over is seven and a half. I thought it would drop to six by now.

Speaker 1 Playoffs to make it, they're plus 225.

Speaker 1 To finish fourth place in the AFC East, plus 220 enticing. We might have a couple of fourth place bets with them.
They were eight and nine last year.

Speaker 1 There's some alt bets if you really like a season from hell for them. You can go like under four, under four and a half wins, plus 490, under five and a half wins, plus 260.

Speaker 1 That was my first question to you. Will Mike McDaniel be our first coach fired? Is there anyone else you would, you'd pick as a bet? I mean, he's begging for it.
I think Dayball lasts.

Speaker 1 I'm trying to look at, I saw it's confanda. We talked this.
A lot of Giants like good buzz, though. Dayball would surprise me.
They might give him another year just because the quarterback situation.

Speaker 1 But

Speaker 1 McDaniel, what was his thing? He talked about we're narrow to death. We're closer to, like, no one's begging to be fired more than Mike McDaniel.

Speaker 1 We're closer to death. Like, he's got to, I just don't like this team.
The only time I like it is when Tyreek Hill is at his healthiest. But if you leave the, look at the metrics.

Speaker 1 He does not fit on this team because Tuo is so injury prone with the however many concussions. He's got to throw it quick.
Your speedster means a lot less, right? Right.

Speaker 1 He should be in like the Falcons with panics just running it to him. He should go somewhere else.
Plus, he has a 98 speed on Madden now, and that's going to tear him up all year. Wow, that's 99.

Speaker 1 Yeah, yeah. So, God, yeah, so that that makes me drop.
I still gave them six wins because it wasn't, you gave him like four or something. I was five and twelve.
There you are. Okay, all right.

Speaker 1 I mean, McDaniel, I think, is going to be fired by Halloween. The only case for them is so many people have talked about how much they didn't like.

Speaker 1 I mean, their defensive backs, awful, maybe the worst secondary in the league. Bad offensive line plus Tua.
So he's just going to be getting rid of the ball right away.

Speaker 1 They're not going to be able to cover anybody. So if they're going to fall behind, and then it's just going to be like everybody coming at Tua.

Speaker 1 And it seems like their schedule gets harder as the year gets along. So if they start out, even if they're three and four, they're in some trouble.
But two and five would be not great. They have

Speaker 1 they're playing the second place schedule. So they have Indy and the Chargers and Washington in that group.

Speaker 1 Yeah, six of the first eight are against teams that didn't make the playoffs. But I just don't like it.
I mean, I looked at it. They had the most holding penalties in the league last year.

Speaker 1 How do you do that with a quarterback who's getting rid of the ball before he even has it? You're playing a speed offense. I thought they were really slappy last year.

Speaker 1 The case for them would be healthy to a season. They got a left tackle they like.
That guy, Patrick Paul. And then the pass rushes back.
A lot of guys hurt last year. They went beefy.

Speaker 1 They were going to throw the ball and rush the passer.

Speaker 1 I don't see it.

Speaker 1 They drafted a lot of big guys. They actually drafted a guy.
What's the guy? I got to find his name here. Zeke Biggers was a guy they drafted.
Sounds like a WWE race.

Speaker 1 I wrote this down. I know JJ's talked about this a bunch of times.
Sorry, JJ, but

Speaker 1 the Dolphins just fall through the cracks for the 21st NFL century, 21st century NFL train wrecks.

Speaker 1 Their last playoff went, I went back and I watched it 23-17 overtime over the 2000 Colts and Peyton Manning.

Speaker 1 And it's this crazy Lamar Smith game where he has like 40 carries and then he runs into the end zone for the win. Remember that.
They cut to some coach. I think it's Weinstead.
I can't remember.

Speaker 1 That was their last playoff win. They've won one AFC's title this century.
They have five playoff appearances and they've had 11 head coaches.

Speaker 1 If their owner was a little more of an asshole, they would be the Cowboys. Like people will be talking about them and not Dallas, but it's Serena Williams, right? Who's the owner? I don't know.

Speaker 1 Stephen Ross. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Speaker 1 Anyway, they're terrible, and I think they're going to be. So we both have six.
Is there a, I think this is like six to one, a Buffalo, Pats, Jets, Dolphins, exact order. Did we bet this already?

Speaker 1 I think it's on there as a special. Yeah.

Speaker 1 I think we're going to do a few of those.

Speaker 1 Who screws that up? Well, that's what you want, right? You want to know the first-place team and the second, and the last-place team. I think we're both keyed in on who those are going to be.

Speaker 1 And then you figure out. I feel like we know the first two, and then it's like three or four is a crapshoot.
All right. we're gonna uh

Speaker 1 we're gonna take a break and then we're gonna hit the ASC Central. The Bill Simmons podcast is brought to you by Fando.

Speaker 1 Week one of college football is finally here, and Fandu is kicking things off with a no-sweat bet just for you. That means you can place any bet on college football this week.

Speaker 1 And if it doesn't hit, you get it back in bonus bets, whether you're riding with your alma mater or backing a top 10 matchup.

Speaker 1 Fandu, as you covered, with live betting, game props, alternate lines, and more. So, bet confidently because with no sweat bet, even your first miss comes with a second chance.

Speaker 1 Download the Fando app now or head to fando.com/slash BS, my initials, to get started. You must be 21 plus in President Select States or 18 plus in President D.C., Kentucky, or Wyoming.

Speaker 1 Opt-in required, refund issued as a non-withdrawable bonus bets that expire seven days after receipt. Max refund, $5.

Speaker 1 Unless otherwise specified, restrictions apply, including token expiration. See you terms at sportsbook.fando.com.
Gambl prom, call 1800 gambler, or visit rg-help.com.

Speaker 1 Call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut. This episode is brought to you by Uber Eats.

Speaker 1 Summer is here and you can now get almost anything you need for your sunny days delivered with Uber Eats. What do I mean by almost?

Speaker 1 Well, you can't get a well-groomed lawn delivered, but you can get chicken parmesan delivered. I love chicken parmes.
A day in the sun? No. A bottle of rum? Yes.
Uber Eats can definitely get you that.

Speaker 1 Get almost, almost anything delivered with Uber Eats. Order now.
For alcohol, you must be legal drinking age. Please enjoy responsibly.
Product availability varies by region. See app for details.

Speaker 1 And now for a special part of today's show. It's called Forward Thinkers of the Game.

Speaker 1 It's brought to you by Workday, where we talk about the football players who we think are going to bring something fresh to the field when the season kicks off. Like Ashton Genty.

Speaker 1 Ashton Genti, I can barely speak on the Raiders.

Speaker 1 Small but powerful, crazy running back, plays three downs, downs, might be the best fantasy football running back by the end of the year. He's one of them.
Could

Speaker 1 Drake May, could he be the next Josh Allen? Could he take Josh Allen and become Josh Allen 2.0? Might happen.

Speaker 1 Could Egbuka on the Buccaneers eventually become the most reliable rookie receiver, maybe one of the most reliable receivers in the league? You never know.

Speaker 1 That's why we play this season because we get to find this stuff out in real time. When you're a forward thinker, the only thing you're afraid of is business as usual.

Speaker 1 Workday is the AI platform that transforms the way you manage people and money today so you can transform tomorrow. Workday, moving business forever forward.
Learn more at workday.com.

Speaker 1 Coming back, I had my first old guy mistake at the end of the last segment. I called it the AFC Central.

Speaker 1 Has it ever been the AFC Central? Well, boomer. You call it whatever you want.
Yeah, yeah, it was. Like way back, right? Isn't that crazy? Houston Oilers, sadly, it's now called the AFC North.

Speaker 1 Baltimore, 11.5 is the over. They are minus 155 to win the division, a number that kind of doesn't seem risky enough.
I almost feel like they should be like 2-1.

Speaker 1 Plus 350 for the conference, plus 650 for the Super Bowl, plus 340 for the one seed. They were 12 and five last year.

Speaker 1 My question to you.

Speaker 1 Is this just the James Harden Rockets, this Ravens team? Great regular season every year.

Speaker 1 A lot of stats. Super fun.
Very unique with Lamar. And then in the playoffs, something happens.
It might be, but it was James Harden's fault, right? It's not Lamar's.

Speaker 1 I don't think, I mean, at least not last year. Like Josh Allen, if you look, by the way, between 2020 and 2024, the best five-year run for any team without winning a Super Bowl, Buffalo and Baltimore.

Speaker 1 And it's unfair to give him shit for the shortcomings. 42 touchdowns, 47.
We give him shit for two years ago when they

Speaker 1 absolutely crushed our bank account. We could do that.
Or when he took a shit. He left the game as big as shit.
But the margin's so thin.

Speaker 1 It's always like a toe inbounds, or Andrews drops an easy ball. Like, when is that going to end, right? Maybe this is a year, but we're just talking over-unders here, right?

Speaker 1 Well, Mallory, somebody took them in our ringer fantasy draft, Mallory Rubin, Giant Ravens fan. Yeah.
And she kind of winced and she's like, ooh, that's not. Really?

Speaker 1 That's somebody who's not following the offseason. They did draft Malachi Starks.

Speaker 1 Their password still looks pretty weak.

Speaker 1 They did not lose really any games to injury last year. Did you see that one? Yep.

Speaker 1 They had by far the fewest in the league. And then the other thing, if you're going to worry about them, is just that Justin Tucker thing is officially over.

Speaker 1 That stability of, I mean, it was really ending last year. Right.
The stability of having these awesome special teams homefield moving into a slightly different. Oh, but he sucked last year.
He did.

Speaker 1 Yeah.

Speaker 1 But it's just like you have to factor that in now where the special teams were always light size and now they're.

Speaker 1 Yeah, but I think that's a good trade-off between injury luck and bad kicker luck, special teams luck. So I like Mike Green, their second-round pick from Marshall.
He had 17 sacks last year.

Speaker 1 A little troubled. That's probably why he fell.
Second round. Yeah, but he could be good.
I mean, this, it's all like, you know, they have five playoff teams in the first six weeks before their buy.

Speaker 1 And that game against Buffalo in Buffalo, that's Ohio State, Texas to start next Sunday, right? And that's, doesn't get better than that. It's incredible.
Yeah.

Speaker 1 I had them at 30 for points of my weird wacky. What? Oh, it's my weird wanky race.
30 wins this year. That's my weird player coach draft system that helped me do really well last year.

Speaker 1 So I had them even one point higher than the Bills.

Speaker 1 And as you said, it looked like they hit their draft a little bit. So

Speaker 1 if you're going to ding them

Speaker 1 at some point there, Kenry's getting old. I don't know.
Is this like a LeBron thing? This just keeps going until he's 40, but he looked awesome last year.

Speaker 1 I just don't see any scenario where they don't win this division. I'm with you.
I have them at 11 wins. What'd you have them at?

Speaker 1 I have them at 12 and 5. Okay.
And I have them as an over. And you could even talk me into 13 and 4.
I think them or Buffalo finishes 13 and 4. And I'm leaning toward

Speaker 1 maybe Buffalo being the one that does that.

Speaker 1 So one thing with their schedule, the AFC North plays the East and the NFC North.

Speaker 1 And then they also play KC Houston and the Rams.

Speaker 1 They have the Thanksgiving game. They're home against Cincinnati and Thanksgiving.
There's a little easy stretch they have here where they go in week 12, Jets

Speaker 1 home, Bengals home, Steelers home, at Bengals, Pat's home. And it comes like right when you would need it.
And I think I could see them doing the like start out two and two.

Speaker 1 Like they're at Bills, home Lions week three, at Chiefs week four. Rough.
I could see like a two and two. Oh, what's wrong? And then they win like their last 10.
Throw the Bears in that stretch, too.

Speaker 1 That's how I wrote that down. That starts off that run of whether you can go four, five, and oh, there.
Yeah.

Speaker 1 Okay. Next team, the Bengals.
So going back to our kind of can't believe they missed the playoffs list.

Speaker 1 Right. Which, oh, wait, I didn't talk about that yet.
So last year, if you put everybody from basically even odds to plus 160.

Speaker 1 Last year we had four teams on this list that missed the playoffs with plus odds. Miami plus 128, the Jets plus 138, Atlanta plus 152, and Dallas plus 164.

Speaker 1 Where you're like, I kind of can't believe they missed it. The year before, there were three teams, and the year before, there was one.

Speaker 1 I have a bunch of possibilities here, including Cincinnati, who is plus 118.

Speaker 1 I have them right around the seventh seed, but not quite either eight, nine, nine, and eight. Their over-under is nine and a half.
I'm under, Sal.

Speaker 1 I wanted to be under because I hate that everybody loves this team and it's kind of the same thing over and over. They lose that first week.

Speaker 1 Doesn't matter if they played, but they lost to the Patriots. They lost to the Browns, one

Speaker 1 inferior teams the first week. We got a whiff of their offensive line again.
Remember that when it just disappears? We got that in preseason.

Speaker 1 I know you don't want to give that, you know, too much credit, but you know, last year they scored 26 a game and allowed 26 a game.

Speaker 1 So it could be that other than the quarterback and receivers and Hendrickson, everything could be bad. That's absolutely a a case that could happen.

Speaker 1 I had this question for you.

Speaker 1 Did the Bengals achieve true perfection

Speaker 1 as a perfect fantasy team, guys team with no chance of being a real-life playoff threat? Interesting.

Speaker 1 Like this team is destined to be eight or nine or nine and eight. Their defense is going to be terrible.
We just know it's going to be bad. They're going to be in shootouts all the time.

Speaker 1 Burrow, if he stays healthy, will, I think, be the best stats quarterback.

Speaker 1 He's top four, right? Nobody can get into that top four for years, I think. How many years has it been? Yeah, Daniels, maybe.
If Daniels goes 12 and five again this year, I think he enters the combat.

Speaker 1 Hurts is right there. I don't think anyone breaks that anytime soon.
So people were like, well, their D might be better this year. What's the evidence?

Speaker 1 They're 31st last year in defense, but they had a way easier schedule last year. Yeah.

Speaker 1 They played the following quarterbacks last year: Jacoby Brissett, Danny Dimes, Jameis, Deshaun, Minshew, Ritter, Thompson Robinson, your guy Cooper Rush, Mason Rudolph, Will Levis, Andy Dalton, and Russell Wilson.

Speaker 1 And they were 31st in defense. Right.

Speaker 1 And they're like, yeah, we drafted Shamar Stewart. It's going to be a little bit better.
Is it? I think I want to change my pick now. You can change it.
I don't know. No, I got to.

Speaker 1 I want you to be right. I want us to do really well.
I have to. See, what I did is what you don't do.
I go through every, every season. I did that this year because you made me so bad.

Speaker 1 No, I didn't do that. I didn't go through every match.
Your shit added up.

Speaker 1 i think mine added up i'm proud of you good because last year you put like three teams in the super bowl or something it worked i was 27 and 5 that's true maybe i should have not counted uh they have a new dc this guy al golden who's a he's a dc for notre dame so anarumo or an aroma i'm gonna say it wrong lounge out of rumo yeah who was good once just uh i don't know remember lombardi did 15 minute monologues about how great louis rumo was he's got 31st day they fired him they end easy at miami arizona and cleveland they they better go 2-0 2-0 against Cleveland and Jacksonville.

Speaker 1 Otherwise, we know what we're getting there. But I'm reluctantly taking 10 wins.
They got Slayton to beef up their Rundee a tiny bit, but it still looks like a team that can't stop the run.

Speaker 1 Their offensive line is bottom five in the rankings. It's like a legit bottom five offensive line, which is fine because Burrow's great, but there's real health things with him too.

Speaker 1 And that was the other thing. Like,

Speaker 1 he's just going to get the shit kicked out of him again. And I don't want to bank on them winning 10 games with the offensive line and the defense.
I'm not doing it.

Speaker 1 Warren Sharp, let's give him a shout out because we do steal a couple of his things. Worst run support, 30th success rate.
Worst run support. Like, everyone's drafting Chase Brown in the third round.

Speaker 1 Like, interesting. They had the third.
Is it counting the sacks as negative yards or something? I don't know. That's not great.
30th defense, 32nd O-line.

Speaker 1 pass block rate the last four years, what you mentioned. They're at Cleveland week one, home jags week two.
Got to win both. Perfect.

Speaker 1 yeah except they start at slow every year right so this is like the you know the two people staring at each other

Speaker 1 10. i'm not i want credit though if it goes under i only had four guys

Speaker 1 with points for them in my ranking system burrow was an eight chase was a five higgins was a three and hendrickson was a three yeah i had a minus one for the offensive line and they were an 18 with four people.

Speaker 1 The only one that was like almost as lopsided was the Niners, where they just have like five good guys and a great coach and nothing else. Right, right.
So it's like a classic star scrubs thing.

Speaker 1 The only thing I'll say is it were four and seven and one score games last year. Maybe they could.
They did lose a couple dumb games, but you also lose dumb games when your defense says

Speaker 1 Pittsburgh, a team that every year I just blindly buy into the Tomlin thing. They are over eight and a half.
It's eight and of course it's eight and a half. Can they just make it?

Speaker 1 Man, eight and a half? Yeah. Make it the Tomlin total.
Like we have the Jeff Fisher eight and eight. He gets those numbers, the Tomlin total.
Yeah.

Speaker 1 Let's fan will make it eight and a half next year, too. Like, that's it.

Speaker 1 Five to one for the division, plus 134 to make the playoffs.

Speaker 1 Under six and a half wins, plus 240. Just want to point that out.
They're 10 and 7 last year, but cratered down the stretch.

Speaker 1 The big question, will Aaron Rodgers,

Speaker 1 not only just, will he be good, but will he finish the season? Do we, is he playing football in mid-December for you?

Speaker 1 I think he does because he's annoying that way. And I kind of think he's the perfect quarterback for this team.
Like, I love that Pittsburgh, that Steelers special, right?

Speaker 1 Which is like, you bet they're losing at half and they win the game and it cashed five

Speaker 1 last year. Yeah.
And it's like plus 600, plus 500, plus 600 every week. He's perfect for that.
He gets off to such a slow start. He gets sacked.
He had such garbage time numbers last year.

Speaker 1 So he's kind of like, he was 30th in sacks taken. First to third quarter, number 30 EPA.
Fourth quarter, number six EPA.

Speaker 1 This is your guy, Steelers. It may not have looked good in the rebuild, but that's what's going to happen, I think.

Speaker 1 Well,

Speaker 1 I wrote down, I think it would be one of the great over 40 achievements

Speaker 1 in any sport if this team goes like 10 and 7 and he's actually pretty good. I don't see it, though.
The offensive line, they got, I think, first-year starters on both tackles. Yeah.

Speaker 1 The skill position guys, like we just did a fantasy draft. Nobody was like clamoring to get Steelers, right? Warren was like the tail end.
People tried to talk to him.

Speaker 1 So you even took Caleb Johnson to get him to get it. Maybe get lucky with Caleb Johnson.
Yeah. So they got the two tight ends.
They Friar Muth and then they got Johnny Smith.

Speaker 1 Who, by the way, might be the best guy that the Dolphins had, but we'll see.

Speaker 1 You look at his stats and like the Patriots had him. He was awful.
Like he had this crazy, weird career year for the Dolphins. I don't know what's legitimate about it.

Speaker 1 And then Metcalf, who seems like just a bizarre fit with

Speaker 1 Rodgers.

Speaker 1 The only case you could make for them to get to nine wins is the defense.

Speaker 1 If the defense is really good again, which I have a feeling it's going to take a little bit of a step back as it's older. How many do you have? They play Cleveland twice.
They play Indy,

Speaker 1 Fields, Sam Darnold, J.J. McCarthy, Drake May, Caleb, and Tua.

Speaker 1 So they play two of the three bad quarterback teams three times. Yeah.
And they play a bunch of young quarterbacks. And could their defense, could they get a couple of those dumb wins?

Speaker 1 I'm leaning more toward,

Speaker 1 I just think the schedule is harder. The defense is going to be a little worse.

Speaker 1 And the way they finished the year last year, to me, this feels like a just kind of a, man, this is depressing Blah Steelers season.

Speaker 1 I just can't move them off that number. I think they're 8-8 going into that last week.
So do you, are you going over or under? I'm going under. I think they lose

Speaker 1 to Baltimore week 18 or whatever it is. And that's that on January 4th.
I mean, they really have to get out of the gates.

Speaker 1 They have to win that Jets game because their last four, I think they have Baltimore times two, Buffalo, Detroit, and Cleveland, whatever.

Speaker 1 Their second half of their season, they got a night game and week 10 against the Chargers, home Bengals at Bears, home Bills at Ravens, home Dolphins Monday night at Lions at Browns, Ravens.

Speaker 1 Yeah, so there's two easy ones out of nine weeks there.

Speaker 1 From a talent standpoint, I had five chippers for them, including Watt, who's still a four.

Speaker 1 People seem to like their draft a little bit, but I just don't see any weapons for them. It's going to be another 16 to 13 type thing, but I don't think they're offensive.

Speaker 1 I just, I should have said this sooner. I just don't think Rodgers wants to get hit anymore.
Yeah. That was the guy we watched last year.
And we see this.

Speaker 1 You and I always bet this with boxing and UFC when guys hit a certain point and they just don't want to take the risks the same way. And I don't know how you play quarterback.

Speaker 1 That old line's got to be good. He's not running for anything.

Speaker 1 I mean, they get Metcalf and everything, but they lost. Nobody loves them in fantasy, really.
They lost Najee and Pickens.

Speaker 1 Those guys had 67 red zone targets by far the best top at the team's positions last year so well if you talk to a steelers fan and thank god we don't know any steelers fans yes yes thank god we don't know one of them how we did it they had the gm from the 2019 to 22 their drafts are like really bad it was like a meme going around on twitter or somewhere where they took picket first They took Najee Harris in the first round.

Speaker 1 They have like just swings. They traded a first-round pick for Minka Fitzpatrick.
He's gone.

Speaker 1 So these are all the guys that would be like your, you know, the stars of your team now. And they don't really have those guys anymore.
So they have these guys in their 30s and that's it.

Speaker 1 And yet it's just like an experiment because they're going to be 8-8 going into that last game. I have them under.
Okay. Last team, the Cleveland Browns over, under 4.5.

Speaker 1 Yeah.

Speaker 1 Fourth place is minus 240. I think those are the best odds for fourth place or the highest odds of anybody.
Playoffs plus 880. Last year, they were 3 and 14.

Speaker 1 Will this ever not be the dumbest team in the league? Like, even the Travis Hunter trade, good trade. Right.

Speaker 1 Trade it. You move back three spots.
You took Mason Graham. You got all these picks.

Speaker 1 And then they just fucking lose their minds. They take the wrong Ohio State running back who isn't even on the roster.
Right.

Speaker 1 They could take in Henderson, who's I forgot to mention when we talked about the Patriots, but he looks like he's going to be a star. He'll be a good kick returner, sure.
No, he's going to be a star.

Speaker 1 He's going to be a three-down back. The Pats have speed with Diggs and Henderson.
I think people don't really realize. Anyway, they could add Henderson.

Speaker 1 They opt into the Chadur soap opera for reasons that remain unclear. After picking a quarterback.
Yeah, after picking another quarterback.

Speaker 1 It's just a bizarre team. And I don't understand

Speaker 1 Stefanski, I think we all like. Yeah.
The media nerds seem to like Andrew Berry.

Speaker 1 How are you this stupid every year? It has to be the owner.

Speaker 1 I was driving over here and i was like damn it how did i give them i gave them five wins which puts it over but i was like how the she changed your mind this is a team they signed bailey zappy today yeah two weeks ago they signed snoop huntley and these guys have an excellent chance to start like week five right instead it's flacco who like you know i i have you see the flacco dylan gabriel photo yeah where it looked like dr evil and me and me yeah and by the way they want shador sanders to be good you pointed it out this team has not made a good decision in decades.

Speaker 1 Of course, they want their where they got Shador Sanders, all this nonsense that they're putting the shitty offensive lineman out there with them. They want to look foolish with the Shador thing, too.

Speaker 1 No, no. Let's get crazy.
So they start with Bengals, Ravens, Packers, and Lions, and then they're off to London. Let's give them the benefit of the doubt and say 0-4.
Yeah.

Speaker 1 Bengals at Ravens, Packers at Lions,

Speaker 1 Vikings in London. Can we go 0-5?

Speaker 1 At Steelers, week 6? Can we just make it an 0-6 right there?

Speaker 1 What game are they winning out of those? Why do I have them? They're not going to outscore the Bengals. I think they'll win something stupid like at Vegas or something.

Speaker 1 You're crazy.

Speaker 1 I am hard under for them. All right.
So you think they're in the running for worst team of the year? Yeah. First pick.
I think them are New Orleans.

Speaker 1 And that's the other thing with this is who's going to start tanking when we get closer. I just think, wow.
I don't know why I had. I did like Mason Graham.

Speaker 1 I wouldn't have been upset if the Pats got him. But, you know, him and Garrett, that's a little something.

Speaker 1 But to not have your second round pick, to do this hunter trade, but then not end up with the 36th pick. Like, what are you doing? That's outrageous.

Speaker 1 And they're going to get thing like $80 million next year or re-restructured Watson, who's never going to. Does Watson take another snap for this team? I don't think so.

Speaker 1 I gave them a minus two for quarterbacks. Wow.
Judy, Nujoku, Garrett, and Ward. Did you know about the Bill Zappy signing when you did that? Or you never didn't know?

Speaker 1 Should I do a minus three? Yeah.

Speaker 1 Vikings, Browns, London is a classic. We hate you, you, England, game.

Speaker 1 That might be one of the worst ones. Where are the Jags?

Speaker 1 Are they not allowed in London anymore? No, that one game. They must be going, right? Don't they? They have one game.
They just don't have the back-to-back. I think Minnesota.

Speaker 1 Oh, yeah, they're going week seven. Yeah.

Speaker 1 London's like, can you just push it later? I really love the house of Bulber. That was dumb.
But I think you can get under five and a half still, right?

Speaker 1 For almost the same. Yeah, with some juice.
Well, I'm going under four and a half.

Speaker 1 All right.

Speaker 1 Let's take another break and then we'll do the AFC Seth. Let's do it.
This episode of the Bill Simmons podcast is brought to you by Spectrum Business.

Speaker 1 Without internet, you wouldn't be able to hear my beautiful voice right now, and businesses wouldn't be able to stay connected the way they need.

Speaker 1 So, what if I told you you can get free business internet forever with Spectrum Business? Just add four mobile lines, get business internet, advanced Wi-Fi, and Security Shield for free, for life.

Speaker 1 No contracts, no added fees. All you have to do to find out how you can get free Spectrum business internet forever at spectrum.com slash free for life.
That's where you go. Restrictions apply.

Speaker 1 Service is not available in all areas. This episode is brought to you by Whole Foods Market.
At Whole Foods Market, you'll find great everyday prices for this Thanksgiving. Check out their 365 brand.

Speaker 1 No antibiotics ever turkeys start at $149 a pound with Prime with Organic Birds at $299 a pound. You'll find Thanksgiving essentials like condensed soups.
I love those.

Speaker 1 Instant mashed potatoes, like those too. Organic baking spices plus low prices on everything else you need from fresh produce to frozen appetizers.

Speaker 1 Enjoy so many ways to save on your Thanksgiving spread at Whole Foods Market Terms Apply.

Speaker 1 AFC South, everyone and their brother as Houston winning this thing, and yet their over-under is only nine and a half wins.

Speaker 1 The AFC South is not a good division. They are minus 150 for the playoffs, 13-1 be the one seed.

Speaker 1 12-1 if you want to get excited about C.J. Stroud plus their defense, and maybe they get lucky with some

Speaker 1 rookie receivers that they have. There's a Joe Mixon situation that everybody who plays fantasy has been on all summer.
He's out for the first four games.

Speaker 1 It doesn't look like we're seeing him this year. It seems like he has a fucked up foot.
Chubbs there. They just have a bunch of, they're basically like what your Dallas running back room last year.

Speaker 1 Sorry. That's true enough.
Here's my question. Can they have the best defense in the league? I took them in our ringer fantasy league.
I took them in Philly as the two defenses.

Speaker 1 They played AFC South six times. Just go 6-0 against the the AFC South.
Yeah. Go 6-0.
You just go 6-0. You go 4-7 against everyone else.
You're 10-7.

Speaker 1 Yeah. I mean, they did a nice job with D'Amico Ryans with the defense last year.
And then, you know, Danelle Hunter now and Stingly. I think they're going to be all right.

Speaker 1 Will Anderson and those are good bookends for edge rushers there. So they have a decent offensive line.
But well, they traded Tunsell, and they seemed like they were okay with trading Tunsell. Right.

Speaker 1 Which is Bruce Tunsell and Diggs. Like, those are the big ones, I guess.
But here's the thing.

Speaker 1 They weren't very very good last year. The best game was that playoff game that they lost, right?

Speaker 1 And C.J. Stroud, I mean, I don't, you don't have to believe me.
They had how many, they moved down big time in prime time games. What was it? Like, right? They had five.

Speaker 1 Now they have two or something like that. Their takeaways, like you said, defense is what kept them in the games.
So this offense was not smart. They have a new OC, a new lineman, and they have a...

Speaker 1 new wide receiver in there they threw in there. I don't know.
He was sacked 52 times, second worst. So hopefully this offensive line thing works out, but I don't put him at 10.

Speaker 1 I have them over at 10 and 7, and really just because of the division. But I have them barely over.
And I actually think the, I think that's good value that it's only 9 and a half.

Speaker 1 Because I think this, especially with the Indianapolis quarterback situation,

Speaker 1 I just don't know who else is going to step up against them. Schedule is a little sneaky hard.
The AFC South plays the West and they play the NFC West. So they play both Wests,

Speaker 1 which technically there's no bad teams out of those eight, but then it's it's it's uh crossed off by the fact that they're in the FCC.

Speaker 1 Rams and Bucks, the stars, those two division winners, and they have to go to Baltimore early on. Five of the last six are indoors, so that's that's good for them.

Speaker 1 But I think it's a stayaway, but I'll go under and I'll give them nine wins. Going under, yeah, nine wins.
Okay.

Speaker 1 I had them 21 for points,

Speaker 1 including

Speaker 1 six guys on defense: Anderson, Hunter, Stingley, Lasseter, Bullock, and Petre.

Speaker 1 Their secondary,

Speaker 1 if you're doing like best units, their secondary is the best secondary in either conference.

Speaker 1 And they have the pass rush, and Will Anderson still has one level to go. Like, their defense might be awesome this year.
There's about three or four teams we could do this for.

Speaker 1 You already did them for one. These are the quarterbacks they played.
Rush. Last year.
Yeah, last year. Rush, Rudolph, Levis, Richardson times two,

Speaker 1 Drake May, Caleb Williams, Mac Jones, and Tua. So,

Speaker 1 your defense is going to look pretty good after those. Right.
This year, other than the AFC South, I mean,

Speaker 1 yeah, definitely a little bit harder this year. They have a couple tough road games too, like

Speaker 1 at Seahawks on a Monday night and stuff like that, at the Ravens.

Speaker 1 I'd be surprised if they didn't get to 10 wins. But

Speaker 1 if they got to nine, I still probably would the division. Yeah.
I have Jacksonville as the second-placed team in this division

Speaker 1 until about two weeks ago. What happened?

Speaker 1 We'll get to the team that I actually have over them.

Speaker 1 Jacksonville, over seven and a half.

Speaker 1 That's what you need to do. The division's plus 290.

Speaker 1 They were 4 and 13 last year, so plus 172 to make the playoffs this year.

Speaker 1 I wrote this down. They're paying Trevor Lawrence $55 million a year, and they don't have their 2026 first.

Speaker 1 Is this an NBA team?

Speaker 1 This is like they might as well be owned by Matt Ishpia.

Speaker 1 yeah completely overpaying somebody who's not in the top 20 in his position and he's taking up a giant part it's basically the bradley beal deal yeah and then trading all this stuff for hunter and they're like yeah we don't know how many snaps he's going to play it's like you didn't figure this out before you traded like a entire draft to get this guy he might you be will we'll play it by year really

Speaker 1 i think i think this team does well for this owner that everybody hates and it's hard to say that this is a prove it year for lawrence he's 26 which is about the age everybody.

Speaker 1 Prove that he doesn't suck. Well, he's got his money already.
So

Speaker 1 it's not like he's put up or shut up. They have new GM, new coaches, Liam Cohn.

Speaker 1 I mean, listen, much as you hate this team, you're the only fantasy owner in the country who has three Jaguars on a squad. Well, you know I love Thomas Jr.
Yeah, all right.

Speaker 1 Bigsby was end of the draft and Lawrence was just whack-a-mole with $1 quarterbacks. Yeah, you had a lot of,

Speaker 1 and look, he played 10 games last year. They weren't good.
They were three and 10 and one score games under Peterson. They have the sixth easiest strength of schedule now.
It's tough to start.

Speaker 1 Sounds like you're talking yourself in and over. They're winning the division.
How about that? The last six are Colts times two, Titans. Plus 290.
And the Jets. There you go.
Take it, Jags.

Speaker 1 You could turn things around this division fairly quickly.

Speaker 1 And don't forget, before last year, they had back-to-back nine win years.

Speaker 1 First of all, you break. First rule, don't trust the AFC South.

Speaker 1 Second rule, you hate the Jaguars. I don't know if anyone's complained about them more than you, except for maybe Gordon.
Right. Yeah.

Speaker 1 Because I had Lawrence in fantasy, but I mean, how many times did we talk ourselves into betting a stupid lunch? I hate this division. You made us make a bet.

Speaker 1 I was like, let's not pick any of the Souths until November. We're already like two AFC South bets in.

Speaker 1 I know. But we'll see.
From a talent standpoint, I only had Thomas, Heinz Allen, Olikun, and Campbell.

Speaker 1 Plus, like, you know, if anyone hits in their draft, but it's not exactly like. You You have the Colts better than that? You have them.
No, the Colts I have right there. Okay.
So the

Speaker 1 X factor, obviously, is Hunter.

Speaker 1 Can Liam Cohen fix Lawrence? Who knows? Right.

Speaker 1 All right. We'll do pie chart.

Speaker 1 Go ahead. What percent of the pie chart is Hunter's just incredible? And playing both sides, and he's an awesome receiver, and he's a lockdown cornerback.
Is there like a 10% chance?

Speaker 1 I don't even think that much. I don't think that much.

Speaker 1 I don't think

Speaker 1 know. A defensive player.
He's a good defensive player and has a couple of Deionish wide receiver plays, but not. I thought that trade was crazy.
Yeah, probably. I don't like that trade.

Speaker 1 Especially a team that doesn't have a lot of talent to do that. That's like it's just a blockchain.

Speaker 1 I mean, we're doing over-unders for this year, though. It's probably a bad trade for 2026 and beyond.
I feel safe going under with them. I have them at 6-11.
10 and 7, baby. Yeah, I went under.

Speaker 1 Okay, Indianapolis, a team that I was over

Speaker 1 until the way the quarterback situation was handled the last few weeks, I'm like, what am I doing? So they're over seven and a half. Division plus 340, playoffs plus 198.

Speaker 1 And honestly, I wrote down that the QB situation already ruined their season. I think that's very possible.
Could Indy be ready for the reset button triple crown in January? Coach QB

Speaker 1 GM. Might be like the complete house cleaning.
It feels like that's where we're heading. Interesting.
Owner, too.

Speaker 1 Rest in peace. Yeah, I guess that already happened.
Well, I don't know.

Speaker 1 They seem to be taking shit for naming Daniel Jones the starter for the season, whereas they could have just said we're starting week one with Daniel Jones, but it's clear that he's their starter.

Speaker 1 It's clear they've quit on Richardson. Yeah, I mean, look, he had 13 starts in

Speaker 1 an era where these guys, Bo Nix and Dylan Gabriel, have like 40, 50 starts before they come in. So that was tough.
He took himself out of the game, which I think, you know, sealed his fate.

Speaker 1 Like, right? Like, well, does this guy want to play? Like, no, he just told you he doesn't want to play. He sat out.
So he's been a little injury prone. Yeah.
And then

Speaker 1 he's one of the most erratic passers. Shoulder, hip, concussions, all of it.
Yeah.

Speaker 1 What's funny is I was I was reading up on that draft because I was like, what was the team that was trying to trade up for him? I couldn't remember. It was Minnesota.
Oh, right. Right.

Speaker 1 They like Godfather offered them

Speaker 1 for four and they wouldn't do it.

Speaker 1 Think about that. Like, sometimes the best move is the one that falls through in the end.

Speaker 1 The other thing that's weird about this team, the receivers and the weapons don't match who they've settled on a quarterback.

Speaker 1 They had that Alex Pierce, who's like a great deep threat. Right.
And downs, and like, you want to kind of wing the ball with this team a little bit. It's Danny Dimes.
Hey, you have Danny Dimes.

Speaker 1 Well, they matched Richardson. That's the one thing he could do.
He could sling it. Yeah.
But now it's, yeah, you're right. It's a whole different ballgame.

Speaker 1 During the 10 minutes when I was thinking, trying to talk myself and then picking them as a seven seven seed, I called a Giants fan friend of mine and I was like, how bad was Dimes last year?

Speaker 1 And he was like, completely different guy from 22 when he wasn't even awesome in 22. And he's like, he was so bad, we put in DeVito for him.
Right. I think DeVito just got waved.

Speaker 1 He's on the Patriots now. He's probably our backup.
Wait a minute. Wait a minute.
You're right. Oh my God.
That's breaking news. What? DeVito on the Patriots.
It was broke two hours ago.

Speaker 1 Look at that ring. Look at those flowers.

Speaker 1 Your gym teachers dating your butcher. I don't know.
I'm trying to make it like it's a Taylor thing. It's okay.

Speaker 1 By the way, Josh Jobs was

Speaker 1 the ball was sailing all over the place in the preseason, and DeVito is actually probably better than that. Good.

Speaker 1 You're going to see him a lot. So.

Speaker 1 Are you... I'm going way under.
I think they have a shot to be the worst team. I have four wins.

Speaker 1 And, you know, in the running for number one, I mean, they end at Seattle, San Francisco, Jacksonville, and at Houston. Nothing's going to be easy.
They lost Fries and Kelly on the offensive line.

Speaker 1 That's tough to replace. That's the thing, is they used to have this awesome O-line.
Yeah. And they just don't anymore.
Right. So the one thing where you're like, well, at least I'll be able to block.

Speaker 1 They can't do that. They haven't won a season open in 11 years.
And they start home against Miami and then play in Denver. This could be a disaster.

Speaker 1 Tyler Warren, I think we like. I do like him.
Yeah. I also like the under five and a half wins at plus 250.
I have them at 5 and 12. Okay.

Speaker 1 I don't see a situation where this team shocks us, but this does, this is a team that fits the profile.

Speaker 1 For whoa, nobody believed in this. Danny Dimes is back.
It's just like we saw him play last year. What are we going to do with this coach, though? Steichen? Yeah, I mean, he's another one.

Speaker 1 I think he's top three for first fire.

Speaker 1 Oh, good point. I didn't even think of that.
Yeah. So how would you rank him? And he's got Luana Romo there, too.

Speaker 1 Mike, we're all going to die. McCarthy, number one.
McDaniel, right? Mike McDaniel, number one. Yeah.

Speaker 1 Mike McCarthy already got fired. Well, he didn't get fired.
He just got

Speaker 1 unrenewed. They kept him around just long enough so they couldn't talk to Belichick or Vrabel or any of those guys.
It was great. Smart.
Got career assistant Brian Schottenheimer.

Speaker 1 So McDaniel, number one.

Speaker 1 Would you put Steichen two?

Speaker 1 McDaniel one, maybe Stike in two.

Speaker 1 Because that's a good move by the GM to be like, hey, Richardson was a good pick. This guy fucked it up.
Right. Hold on.
And then Zach Taylor, would you put Zach Taylor? Well, you don't put Dayball.

Speaker 1 You don't have Dayball in there at all, huh?

Speaker 1 I like the Giants, but I guess he belongs just because the Giants fans actually have hope. So if they suck coming out of the gate, then he gets fired.
Canalis and Taylor.

Speaker 1 I mean, Taylor, I don't think anyone benefits from their good quarterback as much as Zach Taylor. I know.
That guy could be trashed. Last team in the division, Tennessee, over six and a half.

Speaker 1 So here's where it really struggled, Sal. And I almost picked Tennessee to make the playoffs.
And spoiler alert, I did not.

Speaker 1 I absolutely cannot believe they made the playoffs list, which basically is three to one odds and up.

Speaker 1 Last year, we had three teams that made the playoffs. Minnesota plus 285, Washington plus 310, Denver plus 540.
Three teams. Year before, Rams plus 285.
Indy plus 350. Tampa plus 360.

Speaker 1 Houston plus 520. Four.

Speaker 1 Year before, 22. Jacksonville plus 450.
Seattle 5-1.

Speaker 1 That tells me we're going to have at least two teams from the following list. Vegas, Tennessee, Jets, Giants, Saints, Browns.
All those have odds, three to one or worse. And Tennessee is a candidate.

Speaker 1 Tennessee is plus 390.

Speaker 1 And here's how I try to talk myself into it. It is a classic.
What if Cam Ward is just good right away? It's CJ Stroud. It's Jay Daniels.
He's just immediately good.

Speaker 1 I don't know if you've read the stories about he getting a fight with Jeffrey Simmons. Like he's showing up at five in the morning.
Everybody's in there. Like he's just like a leader of men.

Speaker 1 He's checking a lot of my boxes. The problem is, we watched them last year.
We watched them go 2-15 against the spread.

Speaker 1 We watched one of the worst coach teams in the decade, worst special teams, definitely in the decade.

Speaker 1 And I can't back the coach. And that's

Speaker 1 why my training got off. And they play the AFC West and the NFC West, right? So you're not going to get outside of your division, you're not going to get too many freebies.
Plus, the Texans.

Speaker 1 Plus the Texans. And I'm with you.
Like, there, never once

Speaker 1 have have we seen a guy so undervalued, a number one overall pick. Like, go through

Speaker 1 since we've been watching football forever. Caleb, Bryce, Trevor, Kyler, Jared, Jameis, Andrew Luck, Cam Newton.
Like, just like buzz about a guy. It's insane.
Like, he has the sneak up on you factor.

Speaker 1 He really does.

Speaker 1 He doesn't get sacked a lot. That's what you like out of a, I think he got sacked like three or four times

Speaker 1 at Miami last year in college. But, you know, they have no units in the top half.
That's a thing. Like, running back.
It sounds like their offensive line might be better.

Speaker 1 And they feel like I did a deep, deep, deep dive. And they're like, we figured out the offensive line.
It's okay. All right.

Speaker 1 They might be pretty good. And they have what? They had Jefferson and Lockett and they have Ridley.
Ridley's like their blue chipper.

Speaker 1 So the case against them, zero pass rush. They probably, other than Simmons, it's the worst front seven in the league.
Bet no receivers beyond Ridley. And

Speaker 1 I guess you could say that the special teams can't be worse.

Speaker 1 I just can't get there with the coach. I really wanted to.
I wanted to try. It's like, why would this team, like if they had Mike McDonald as their coach with Cam Ward,

Speaker 1 I would be like, I'm in nine and eight, seven seed. Let's go.
Let's bad division. Let's ride this.
But

Speaker 1 this is not a Dan Quinn with Jaden Daniels situation. This is not like having Vrabo with Drake May.
Did you give him a dog? I just can't do it. Did you give him six or seven? I did.
I went hard over.

Speaker 1 Yeah. Seven and ten.
But I thought about nine and eight. Yeah.
All right. Well, I give him six, and that's a pretty good improvement from three.
Like these guys are six is under.

Speaker 1 Oh, all right. I still, they're going to double their wins.
Like they were two and six in one score game. You're under for the Titans.
Is it six? Was it six and a half?

Speaker 1 Yeah, this one's in the middle, five and a half, six and a half. So whatever you want to call it.
Yeah. I'm giving them six.

Speaker 1 All right. So you're under.
All right. Because I had over six and a half plus 115.

Speaker 1 Want to do one last check? Let's do it. Just to make this because this could be big.
Because if it's five and a half, that's good for both of us. Really exciting stuff right now.

Speaker 1 Going to the FanDuel site. No one can be watching.
People watching? No, people are definitely. They love us.
All right.

Speaker 1 FanDuel has the win totals.

Speaker 1 You can go right to Tennessee. So look, look what happens here.
You have under what?

Speaker 1 Oh.

Speaker 1 Oh, it moved. We can do this.
It's a great job.

Speaker 1 It's a five and a half. It's a five and a half now.
This is great. I'm glad we did that.
Over five and a half. So we're both over.
Okay, we're both over. Over five and a half is minus 140.

Speaker 1 Oh, it changed. No, no, no, we're sticking with that.
Okay. All right.
So mark that at home. Sal.
I'm glad. I'm glad we're aligned on this.
Good. Let's be on the same page.

Speaker 1 All right. We're going to, that was so, such a riveting segment.
We're going to have to take a break. This episode is brought to you by Boar's Head.
You know, one of the best parts of football season?

Speaker 1 Getting together with friends and family to watch a game in the tasty food. And guys, if Boar's Head isn't on your home gating menu, you're fumbling big time.

Speaker 1 That'll help you serve the perfect game day spread, premium meats, cheeses, dips, and more. Trust me, nothing better than a boar's head sandwich during halftime.

Speaker 1 Throw in their blazing buffalo chicken dip. Delicious.
And you may even score an extra point or two. Elevate your game day entertaining with Boarshead.

Speaker 1 Visit your local boarshead deli for platter options. Boarshead, committed to craft since 1905.

Speaker 1 This episode is brought to you by Black Friday Game Day on Prime. It's Bill Simmons, Black Friday Game Day coming to Prime, and it will be an epic day of live sports.

Speaker 1 Black Friday football at the center of it all with the Chicago Bears taking on the Philadelphia Eagles at 3 p.m. Eastern.
This might be an actual round one playoff game.

Speaker 1 That's followed by the final night at Emirates NBA Cup group play

Speaker 1 and a doubleheader starting with the Bucs and Knicks at 7 p.m., Giannis in New York again, and the Mavericks and Lakers at 10 p.m. Boy, I wish those two teams had a history.

Speaker 1 The whole day starts with the return of the Capital One Skins game as four league PGA golfers face off with $4 million in the line.

Speaker 1 Black Friday game day tees off with the Capital One Skins game at 9 a.m. Eastern before the Big Bears Eagles football game at 3 p.m.

Speaker 1 And it all culminates with a double dose of Emirates NBA Cup action featuring Bucks Knicks at 7 p.m. and Mavs Lakers at 10 p.m.
only on Prime. The AFC West is here.

Speaker 1 Kansas City is here as usual.

Speaker 1 This one I really struggled with when I saw my notes from this. The absolutely, I cannot believe they missed the playoffs list.
Missed the playoffs. Oh, the list.
Yeah, yeah.

Speaker 1 Philadelphia plus 270 kc plus 285 baltimore plus 390 and buffalo plus 520. so why am i listing those teams

Speaker 1 because every year for at least the last three somebody from a list like that missed the playoffs san francisco last year yeah last year san francisco year before cincinnati plus 225 year before green bay plus 360.

Speaker 1 history tells us somebody is going to miss the list or

Speaker 1 somebody from this list will miss the playoffs. I don't think it's going to be Philadelphia.
I don't think it's going to be Buffalo. I don't think it's going to be Baltimore.

Speaker 1 And I don't want to pick the Chiefs. So I think the streak ends.
But I just wanted to flag it. It's fine.
Good. Good.
I just wanted to flag it.

Speaker 1 If one of those four missed the playoffs, I think it would be the Chiefs. But come on.
Chiefs over under 11.5.

Speaker 1 Division minus 105.

Speaker 1 Number one seed plus 380.

Speaker 1 And playoffs is minus 375. They're 8-1 to win the Super Bowl.
If you look at every metric, this team should not have won 15 games. This team probably shouldn't have won 11 games.

Speaker 1 The nerds were outraged by this team. Oh, yeah.
I think it was the biggest disparity between what the record should have been and what it was ever.

Speaker 1 22nd in red zone offense.

Speaker 1 You know, it's a futile exercise, right? Because they're not the best team. They know how to close.
I feel like, you know, I've had three kids already and I know how, and that's going to be it.

Speaker 1 But they, you know, when the doctor, the doctor, I was so surprised that the doctor would come in the very last minute. I'm like, where's the doctor? Like, they're just there.

Speaker 1 Oh, he he comes in like Mahomes. Yeah, it's Mahomes.
It really is. He was 11-0 in one score game.
He's in with Brandier Snip stuff. Yeah.
Yeah. 15 wins going into week 18.
Like, it's crazy.

Speaker 1 That's funny. The doctor is like Marion Rivera.
Yeah. Think they should have music? Yeah, I think so.
Oh, that's good. Entrance music.
I remember being like, where is this guy or gal? I have no idea.

Speaker 1 So, yeah.

Speaker 1 So, I mean, yeah, they're an enigma. They lose Tooney.
You know, Taylor wasn't great. They had Jalen Moore on the offensive line and Josh Simmons in the draft.
The Josh Simmons thing seems big. Yeah.

Speaker 1 So

Speaker 1 I'm going to put them at 11, man. I think that's under.

Speaker 1 My question for you with the Chiefs.

Speaker 1 Did Mahomes kind of need to be clubberlained in that Super Bowl?

Speaker 1 Did he need it? Because he wasn't very good last year for him. No.
I mean, yeah, I think he was six in MVP. Imagine that.
15 wins. Yes.
Yes in MVP. And that's the thing.

Speaker 1 When I was struggling with who to put at the top of the QB pyramid, and Mahomes is just blind in because he's at the Super Bowls, but I was like, he definitely wasn't one of the best QBs last year.

Speaker 1 And even like, if you look at the deep passing stats for him, he was terrible with deep ball. And you could say like, well, it was receivers and rice.
And you can make excuses. No explosive plays.

Speaker 1 But he just wasn't good last year

Speaker 1 for him.

Speaker 1 So did he need to be clubberlenged? Yeah. You know, there's that whole metric where the losing team in the Super Bowl, that's when you write them off for the next year.

Speaker 1 So maybe that's why they fit in. But I just think they're so used to being in these games with two minutes left.
They're so there every single time. They don't lose at home.
Like I said, 8-0.

Speaker 1 Doesn't matter that they have the worst explosive play rate in the league and that they're, you know, I mean, I think you give the defense credit. That guy, he'll never get.
Your guy's Spagnola.

Speaker 1 Spagnola will never get enough credit. He just won't, you know.
Well, you know what else isn't good enough credit?

Speaker 1 How brutal their schedule is from a travel standpoint. Yeah.

Speaker 1 The AFC West looked out. They got the AFC South, they got the NFC East, right? Pretty good.

Speaker 1 They got the worst division in the AFC and the second worst in the NFC. Yep.
But they're playing Buffalo, Baltimore, and Detroit.

Speaker 1 They have eight, I repeat, eight non-traditional weekly games, night, Christmas, or Europe. One of them's Dallas, so don't worry about it.
Yeah, yeah. Thanksgiving.
Start their season in San Paulo.

Speaker 1 They have a Sunday night game. They have a Monday night game.
They have a Sunday night game. They have a Monday night game.
They have a Thanksgiving game. They have a Sunday game.

Speaker 1 They have a Christmas game.

Speaker 1 And maybe even a Sunday night game. Who knows? But

Speaker 1 that always makes me nervous when the schedule is crazy like that. Yeah, does it? I don't like it.

Speaker 1 I almost feel like they're worse off like when they went to Carolina last year and they won that game that they

Speaker 1 were like when they're on Sunday at 1 p.m. Eastern, the one or two times a year.
That's kind of when they have weird mojo.

Speaker 1 No rice for the first six games. He took the suspension.

Speaker 1 So to your point, they only have two hard road games.

Speaker 1 But I think this is, I think it's a fascinating Allen season but i also think it's a fascinating mahomes season because definitely this was like he he let control of the steering wheel a little bit last year i want to look into mvps plus 650 which is very high for for patrick mahomes i know it's it's probably not one of our top three picks but we do have that kcd that cd that money we put aside case to win the super bowl mahomes mvp that might be running out a little but you're right like they could be one and three to start chargers eagles giants ravens then at jacksonville monday night could be like a must win Well, I was trying to think of other teams that other guys that peaked in their 20s in the crazy way, and then as they hit their 30s, it just wasn't ever quite the same.

Speaker 1 Yeah.

Speaker 1 And I thought of Pooh Holes. Interesting.
Remember Pooh Holes? Where we were like, oh my God, this guy's Ted Williams crossed with, and then he hit his 30s, and it just wasn't the same anymore.

Speaker 1 I don't know if that's going to happen to Mahomes, but

Speaker 1 if the O-line's good, he'll figure it out. I know it's like a really simplistic way to analyze this team, but well, that's that's a long way of me saying I'm going over.
And I think this is a Mahomes,

Speaker 1 this is a Mahomes. People are talking to me about this on the streets, kind of, kind of comeback season for him.
He has more weapons.

Speaker 1 It's Kelsey's farewell season, but 20 and 4 in divisional games over the last, how many years? I don't know.

Speaker 1 The big thing for them is just having that infrastructure of just everything's the same every year, which I think probably hurt them in the Super Bowl because it's like, all right, we're back in the Super Bowl.

Speaker 1 You don't have that. Oh, my God, I want to give my life for this.
But I don't know how they wouldn't go 12 and 5. You have 12.
I have 11. Is it 11 and a half? That's 11 and a half.

Speaker 1 All right, so I'm slightly under, but I still believe in this team to win the division. So I have them at 12

Speaker 1 and I had them at 29 points in my point system, which ties them with Baltimore and one behind

Speaker 1 Buffalo. I have them at 12 wins.
I do not have them winning the division. Really? Yeah.
Oh, man. Oh, so you must have a team doing this is my big swing.

Speaker 1 Denver Broncos

Speaker 1 over nine and a half. I've talked about them on five podcasts, so people aren't surprised.
In fact, the question is, can you become the surprise contender

Speaker 1 when so many people think you're the surprise contender? But I actually think they're the surprise contender. I would have said this last year.
It would have gotten more.

Speaker 1 This might be the everybody believes in this team, but division plus 290. That dropped.
That was like plus 350 at one point.

Speaker 1 Second place, plus 210. Playoffs, minus 130.
That used to be even.

Speaker 1 And you can go 12 plus wins, which I think they're going to get plus 310.

Speaker 1 And I'm just all in, man. I liked this team last year.
And there's some schedule stuff with them. There was some Sean Payton.
I finally have some of my guys, but they beefed up the defense.

Speaker 1 They got Greenlawn, Singleton, Fanga, better running backs. They beefed that up.
They like the receivers.

Speaker 1 Their defense last year, I know it was against some shaky teams, but they were first in defensive EPA. They were first in sacks.
Yeah.

Speaker 1 I have them on defense: Benito, Franklin Myers, Allen, Greenlaw, Sertan, Jones, and Hufanga. There's seven guys who got points for me on their defense.

Speaker 1 And they have one of the best offensive lines in the league. That's it.
And you love Bo Nicks. I love Bo Nicks.
And we both love Sean Payton. Like, why isn't this a 12-win team?

Speaker 1 This is how you build a team, right? Great offensive line, solidly built, great defense.

Speaker 1 They are exactly the opposite of the Chiefs, even though they're successful and maybe, as you're predicting, more successful. Nine wins by eight or more points.
The Chiefs don't do that.

Speaker 1 Seven wins by 14 or more points. They made the playoffs despite being one and six in one score games.
That's insane. Wow.
The luck is going to turn around even more. So I think you may have to play.

Speaker 1 And there's a home field advantage with the altitude. You got to factor that in.
For sure. Yeah.
Unlike the Chargers, they have the biggest home field in the end of Chiefs. Schedules, it's okay.

Speaker 1 They got to go to London at one point. They're playing the Chiefs on Christmas.
They should win those first two games, Titans and Colts, right?

Speaker 1 Yeah, just the schedules,

Speaker 1 it's not easy.

Speaker 1 So that's why normally I would have been like, because I really feel like this is going to be this year's Lions. I think it's like lined up for them to be really good.

Speaker 1 But the schedule is a little harder than

Speaker 1 I would want. Yeah.
You know what? You want a stat that you're going to love? 16 and 1 and three team teasers, 10 points. 16 and 1.
Oh, that's the best.

Speaker 1 Peyton likes the team. He's telling everybody he likes it.
He believes in his guy, Nick's. 63 sacks.
They're solid. I'm only going to give him 10, but that's good enough to go over, right?

Speaker 1 Yeah.

Speaker 1 Titans, week one.

Speaker 1 At Colts, week two. Danny Dimes.
That's 2-0.

Speaker 1 At Chargers, week three, with 55% Denver fans.

Speaker 1 Home Bengals, week four. And then at Eagles, week five.
And I think that's 4-0. I think they're 4-0 going into that game.
It's a little tougher. Yeah.

Speaker 1 That's pretty good, though.

Speaker 1 LA Chargers overs nine and a half, three to one for the division, plus 350 to finish last in the division.

Speaker 1 Minus 120 for the playoffs. They were 11 and 6 last year against an even easier schedule than the Broncos.

Speaker 1 Against every good defense, they did not score points.

Speaker 1 I talked about this when I talked about Herbert a couple weeks ago in the pod, where they were just like, if they're against a good defense, it was between 10 and 14 points.

Speaker 1 Slater goes down. down terrible start

Speaker 1 we extend them and then it goes down we've seen enough of these seasons when you lose a guy like that in august i'm trying to remember when it's ever been good yeah it's like oh despite the loss of the best guy in our team right right right um it's just you know they moved joe wild over there they'll be able to make do with that i guess but they the one thing that was going to make them kind of special was this big nasty offensive line and now it's not big and nasty yeah um this is the most annoying team in football in the last decade out of the Watchables, right?

Speaker 1 I'm not talking like Panthers, right? This is a team like, why the hell do you have 13 points with two minutes left in the third quarter? This is crazy. He's slinging the ball.

Speaker 1 Like you said, you know,

Speaker 1 I think they're much better in 2023, but not as good as the world wants them to be.

Speaker 1 In fact, I think this year determines if Jim Harbaugh, if this was a good move, like in just in general, they would top two in penalties. Good coaching, you don't see that.

Speaker 1 Three of their 11 wins were against sub-500 teams like you mentioned earlier. You're thinking a little Jimmy Johnson at Miami, kind of? Yeah, maybe a little bit.

Speaker 1 Like, oh, this guy's going to be the savior, but maybe he left his magic at the other team.

Speaker 1 Yeah, I mean, do we pencil them in and making the playoffs and then just getting slaughtered in the first round? Like, maybe, maybe that's their thing. I just, they never beat the Chiefs.

Speaker 1 They have to beat the Chiefs in Brazil. That's a home game.
They have to win that. Otherwise, this is going to be stuck.
I think I have them with nine wins. They have no true home games.

Speaker 1 You go down their schedule. It's like, oh, oh, well, they're definitely beating the Colts.
Well, no, the Colts might have more fan. Like, you you can't get it.
Well, that's the thing.

Speaker 1 We do this every year on Guest the Lions on Sundays. Like, they play week four at,

Speaker 1 oh, no, that's at the Giants. Week three, Broncos, week five, Commanders.
We know what's going to happen in that Commanders game. It's going to be 60% Washington fans.

Speaker 1 And maybe it'll get there someday, but we're not there yet. And I just can't pick.

Speaker 1 Viking Steelers, those are home games for those teams. Look at those last five.
Philly, Case, Dallas, whatever, Houston, and Denver. Philly, every Philly fan we know is going to be at that game.

Speaker 1 Right. And they travel.
I know the Brazil thing

Speaker 1 makes it weird, but 37,000 miles, which is the most. I have them with nine.
I can't get them. Can't get them to 10.
I had the Broncos at 30 points in my weird ranking system. I had the Chargers at 21.

Speaker 1 So this is the best score for a team that I did not have in the playoffs. But

Speaker 1 I have them at 8-9.

Speaker 1 I think that's where it ends. The draft was good.
Maybe Hampton's amazing. And, you know, so that would be the X-Factor.
Hampton's amazing. They're just pounding the ball.

Speaker 1 There's some sort of Herbert go up a level, but we just, you know,

Speaker 1 the football nerds, they're going to stick with Herbert to the bitter end. And we just haven't seen it.
Actually, that reminded me, I had a question for you. He is

Speaker 1 41 and 38 career. Is that what it is? 0-2 in the playoffs.
Yeah. And now he is his built-in excuse for this year because Slater got hurt.
So the Herbert. Kool-Aid drinkers.

Speaker 1 Well, we lost Slater. Yeah.

Speaker 1 Nobody wants to talk about the playoff game.

Speaker 1 We're just not not allowed to talk about that everyone that's over there that's like when you know your your uncle got hammered at christmas and you know shit in the corner and you're like how did you let's never talk about it's jimmy's father yeah that is true let's never talk about uncle jimmy again yeah yeah uh we're just not allowed to talk about it right

Speaker 1 what happened in the playoffs i don't remember yeah i mean even with a good offensive line he had you know his interception rate was number 20 his sack rate was 28 And I still think he's good.

Speaker 1 Well, I have a new nickname for him for you. What's that? Justin 500.
Ooh. Yeah.
Okay. Yeah.

Speaker 1 I'm going Justin 500 for Justin Herbert. I think at the end of this season.
Is that a shitty NASCAR race? Well, he's 41 and 40 career, if you include the 0-2 in the playoffs.

Speaker 1 I think at the end of the season, he's exactly 500. I like that.
He's 8-9.

Speaker 1 He'll be 50 and 50. Oh, no, he'll be, I'm sorry, 49 and 49.
Oh, that's great. Yeah.
I feel like we did this with someone once. Well, we did this with Shanahan for a while.
Shanahan, this coach, yeah.

Speaker 1 Every time like Shanahan passed some shitty coach in the ranking But yeah, Shanahan, that's the one. I'll say this.
I was under on the Chargers before the Slater injury. Yeah.

Speaker 1 So, because I had already decided on the Broncos. This next team, the Las Vegas Raiders,

Speaker 1 over six and a half,

Speaker 1 12 to 1 for the division.

Speaker 1 Plus 330 for the playoffs. Plus 440 to win 10 games.
Last year, they were 4-13.

Speaker 1 And they check a couple of the boxes. They went from Antonio Pierce,

Speaker 1 worst coach in the league, second to worst, third worst, in the top three worst.

Speaker 1 The worst quarterback situation probably of anyone other than the Browns. Now they have Geno.
He's competent. They've got Pete Carroll's pumped and jacked.

Speaker 1 Pete Carroll, 17 straight seasons, seven wins or better.

Speaker 1 They have Genti.

Speaker 1 Yep. Who's

Speaker 1 really high in drafts?

Speaker 1 Pierce and Brock Bowers. Genty from Madison, Geno from Minshew, and Brock Bowers, who should just get better.
Brock Bowers, who was like the most amazing tight end since Gronk. Yeah.

Speaker 1 Second half last year. Chip Kelly finally has

Speaker 1 what he wants. Chip Kelly is the OC.
Pete Carroll, three-year deal. So they're like, we're pumped and jacked.
We're coming in. They're playing the AFC South.

Speaker 1 They play the Browns, the Giants, the Bears, and the Cowboys. They play Casey in week 18.
Right.

Speaker 1 That could matter if Casey is like, eh, fuck it. Right.

Speaker 1 They were minus 16 in turnover differential last year. 31st overall.

Speaker 1 So they're better at QB, coach, and running back.

Speaker 1 Probably the worst secondary in the league if you're going to ding them on something. Defensive line's not great.

Speaker 1 The defense, but that's going to be a Pete Carroll moving guys in, pumped the jack thing.

Speaker 1 I have them in the playoffs. I have nine and eight.
Good for you. I have them nine also.
I don't think I have, I don't have them in the playoffs, but I think they're a nine-win team.

Speaker 1 I have a lot of wins in that AFC West, but it all adds up. I promise.
Yeah, I do worry, though. that they're going to be feisty but lose a lot of games.

Speaker 1 Like, I think they're going to be like the SD Jones.

Speaker 1 They're going to be the L V Jones.

Speaker 1 yeah. Like, all right.
On TV, he's going to lose like six out of seven wins. Tony Atlas, when Tony Atlas and SD Jones were together? Maybe they'll team him up.
Yeah, Tony Atlas.

Speaker 1 Maybe he'll beat Iron Mike Sharp if nobody. He's pinned him.
Where's the referee? Exactly. He's pinned him for seven seconds.
They've been screwed by the referees. So,

Speaker 1 you know, Maury and Spillane were their highest rated run defenders, but they have Malcolm Koons. So that's going to be tough.
But I think they go against the weakest quarterbacks in the league.

Speaker 1 Number one, easiest schedule of pass offenses. So

Speaker 1 that does help. And seven of the final eight are indoors.
Geno's quarterback rating is 100 plus indoors. I mean, think about this.

Speaker 1 You go three and one against AFC South. Yeah.
You beat the Browns and you beat the Cowboys. That's six.

Speaker 1 Split Giants Bears. There's seven.

Speaker 1 Beat the Chargers at least once. There's eight.
You know, we can get to nine wins pretty easily. Beat New England, game one.
Yeah. From a talent standpoint, I wouldn't say they're loaded.

Speaker 1 They're top heavy in the same way the Niners are in the Bengals. We're looking for a team like this.
It definitely, definitely could be them. I want to bet.

Speaker 1 I wish we could bet that they'd cover over eight and a half games. Can we bet that they'll cover nine games? Who cares if teams win or lose?

Speaker 1 So from the absolutely cannot believe they made the playoffs list, Vegas, Tennessee, Jets, Giants, Saints, Cleveland. This is the first one I'm going with.
Vegas plus 320. It is.

Speaker 1 And we know we're going to have at least two. Do you have, so you have them with 10, so they have to be in?

Speaker 1 no i have them nine wins and i think nine wins makes it okay yeah i think the seven seed is nine wins what other nine because this is the last team in the afc so what other nine win teams do you have that don't make it they're the only one i put pittsburgh and cincinnati at eight and nine oh that worked out nicely and i put the chargers at eight nine and if one of them gets the nine i i'll give vegas the tiebreaker so i have buffalo baltimore houston denver as my division winners new england uh casey is the five seed new england is the sixth seed and vegas is the seven seed and i'd like to welcome vegas to the shakies game right now.

Speaker 1 Oh, really? Yeah.

Speaker 1 They're already invited. We've already made reservations for the 2-7.

Speaker 1 Who would it be? The Denver, Vegas,

Speaker 1 Shakies game. Who's home in the AFC South?

Speaker 1 No, Denver, the 2-seed, and Vegas, the 7th seed. Well, yeah.

Speaker 1 Oh, you're saying Houston, the Texans or Jags would host, I think. But that's Houston, KC.
They're not going to put that

Speaker 1 unless it was Houston, Denver. They would put that in Shaky.

Speaker 1 Yeah, I have Bills, Chiefs, Ravens, Jags, Division Winners, Broncos, Bengals, Patriots. So I didn't do the three in, three out exercise because it didn't work last year and I didn't want to force it.

Speaker 1 What's the three in three out? Oh, three playoff teams out, three in. Doesn't always work.
I wonder, I was looking at it. Does the 17-game schedule have less variance?

Speaker 1 16 games was like three and three out. Like you could, you could set your watch out.
If you're good, you're good. Yeah, you got that extra game to kind of write the ship.

Speaker 1 Even Cincinnati last year almost made the playoffs and they sucked. Yep.
You know? All right. That's it for part one.
Thanks to Gahal. Thanks to Saruti.

Speaker 1 We are putting this up as on Wednesday night. And then we're going to put up part two, which is coming probably Thursday lunch range of NFC.
Yeah. And we're going to take a break.

Speaker 1 I'm going to get you a Coke. Okay.
Coke Zero or a Diet Coke?

Speaker 1 Diet Coke. I probably have.

Speaker 1 I'm going to have a coffee. We're going to take a break and we're going to do the NFC, including your team.
Woohoo! Let's go. Let's go, John.

Speaker 1 I want to see them

Speaker 1 when we suck

Speaker 1 I don't have

Speaker 1 a feeling

Speaker 1 must be 21 plus in president-slick states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino, or 18 plus in president, D.C., Kentucky, or Wyoming.

Speaker 1 Gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLBRE or visit rg-help.com. Call 1-88-789-7777, or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut, or visit mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland.
Hope is here.

Speaker 1 Visit gamblinghelpline ma.org or call 800-327-5050 for 24-7 support in Massachusetts or call 1-877-8 HOPENY or text Hope NY in New York.