NBA Over/Unders, Part 1: The West With Zach Lowe and Joe House

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Zach Lowe is going to join us this year.

This is part one.

We're doing the West.

We get guests, the over-unders.

They do win totals.

FanDuel has them.

Any place where you bet, but we love FanDuel.

Win totals for the season for each team.

And we go over or we go under, and we talk about every team, and we have some laughs and we have some fun.

And it's about to happen.

We're going to take a break, Pearl Jam, and then the West over unders is next.

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All right, the time is here.

NBA over unders.

Joe House is here.

We first did this on the BS Report on ESPN in 2010.

Wow.

Yeah.

15 years.

Yeah.

Somebody on YouTube has all the old BS report podcasts.

2010.

So that would make it, I'm bad at math.

15.

This is our 15th.

If we're inclusive, it's 16.

So it's our 16.

This is why we have Zach Lowe.

Zach Lowe is here.

Never has been on the Over-unders pod.

In fact, you and Joe Hasse have never done a podcast.

Is that true?

We're doing it.

Amazing.

Do notable.

I have one goal.

I told Zach already.

I want him to say something bad about somebody.

That's my goal for this podcast, to get Zach Lowe to say something bad about somebody.

I don't know.

Zach looks tan, rested.

I don't know, but ready.

I'm ready to go.

I'm excited.

Dare I say,

one of the most fun over-under seasons we've ever had.

There's so much flux.

There's so many teams you could make a case for either way, just being either way better than people think or way worse.

And yet, we're going to start with the West.

This is part one.

And we're going to start with the Oklahoma City Thunder, who won the title last year, Zach, and are somehow not that exciting to talk about.

I just think they're going to be awesome again, and I don't really have a lot of Thunder takes.

Like, why wouldn't they be awesome again?

What would be the case against it?

Well, they're going to be awesome.

There's no question about that.

They have some injuries.

Jalen Williams, how quickly is he going to be ready to start the season?

Good Jalen Williams.

Topich

had some kind of surgery.

Kenrich Williams.

It wasn't some kind of surgery.

I don't want to.

I don't want to get out of the surgery.

Did you research the testicular Topic surgery?

I did not.

I felt like I did not either.

I just saw the timetable, but there's no question they're going to be awesome.

They're the favorites to win the title.

The question is, 62 and a half.

It's a pretty giant number.

62 and a half wins, House, minus 340 for the division, plus 130 for the conference, and plus 210 for the title.

Minus 210 for the one seed on Fandu, if you're interested in that one.

House, only 11 teams, I think in the last 30 years or something, have been

over

60 wins for an over-under.

And I think it's eight and three where it's been under.

Most recently was the Warriors of 2019.

We were dumbfounded by this last night.

Over-under of 67 and a half for them.

That was the year Durant got hurt.

But

did you think this was too high?

It's just a tad too high.

And it's just because of the math aspect of it.

It's what you just described.

It's what we know what history tells us about teams that come in having won the title.

Every team in the league circles that game like, hey, Oklahoma Homeless City's in town.

Let's give a good effort here.

Let's see how we match up against the champs.

And so I don't feel like it's disrespectful to say that they win 61 or 62 games.

It's still an awesome season.

They're still an awesome team.

They should be the one seed.

They should win the conference.

But I am not going to bite down too hard on this one.

They would have to go six wins worse

to go under because they were 68 and 14 last year.

They had a plus 12, 7.7 or plus 12.7 net last year.

It's the best in the history of the NBA.

I don't know why that would be considerably worse.

I just don't see how they're not a mid-60s team unless there's some sort of major injury, but we could say that about any good team.

Their expected wins last year were 69, according to Cleaning the Glass.

So you have to like do the thing where it's like, how many did you win?

Were you lucky?

Were you unlucky?

They're like flat out, basically a 70-win team.

We'll be talking about that during the Detroit section in part two.

Wow, just flashing all the way ahead to.

Wow, just, you know, 46 wins, but was it?

Is this the part where I say what I think is going to happen?

Like, I don't, you have the cadence for this over-unders thing.

You know, you're going under, it sounds like.

Let me set you up.

Okay.

In 2002, they won 24.

In 2023, they won 40.

In 2024, 57.

And in 2025, 68.

So if you do the math, they're going to win 77 games this year by those.

So 77 and five

is how it's going to go.

I'm going over.

What are you doing?

I'm going aggressively over.

Oh, wow.

Aggressively over.

Didn't even know that was an option.

I just thought we were doing overs.

Aggressively overs.

I just think they're so good and so deep and their defense is so much better than everybody else's that they just like, how many games are they going to be underdogs in the entire year?

Like on the road against Denver?

Well, the other thing is they can sit dudes and it doesn't matter.

It's like, oh, we'll just put this guy in instead.

It'll be fine.

And they seem like the kind of team, but first of all, they won 68 with Chet missing half the season, Hartenstein missing almost half the season.

Maybe they suffer some other injuries this year.

I just think they walk into every game with a defense.

It's like we can play a shitty offensive game and still win.

And the floor is so high.

And they do strike me as a team.

that is going to like what you said.

Like, oh, you're going to give us your best shot?

Come at us.

We're young.

We're not this like old, creaky champion.

Actually, we kind of like being the hunted.

We like kicking the shit out of everybody on defense.

We want history.

Like, I think it's, I think 70 wins is in play if they're healthy.

So the case for this house would be the 1992 Bulls,

who went 67 and 50 in the year after they won the title.

We're young like this team, had guys that were still ascending, had Pippin going up a level, which you could make the case maybe Jalen Williams or Chet or both this year.

Chet, big time.

And I'm with you.

I actually think, I think they have a chance to be better.

And the reason I mention this is you can bet on this house if you think the OKC Thunder can win 70 games.

What do you think the odds are in FanDuel?

Probably not great.

You know what I mean?

Like probably

three to one, something like that.

I was going to go longer than that.

How about plus 680?

Oh, wow.

Now that you have my attention.

I was going to say that.

I didn't think that was.

I was going to say 12 to 1 or something like that.

Could they win 70 games?

Yeah.

Has that happened a lot?

I think the plus 680 I thought was high.

Out of all the bets that we've talked about so far,

that's the one that's got my attention.

Yeah.

Oswald.

So you're you over or under?

I'm over now.

Okay.

Wow, just like that.

Well, no, he just had to be talked into because 63 is still over.

I was 5K first than last year.

I was stunned by how little I thought about a number this big.

It was like over.

What do I feel bad?

If they win 61 games, I still feel good.

60 games are still awesome.

I'm going over.

Yeah, 63.

One other thing with these guys,

some assets to trade if they wanted to get frisky, right?

They have

all the draft picks, which aren't quite as good as they felt like they were three years ago.

They're still all right.

They have like some Philly stuff.

They have some Utah stuff that's protected.

They have some swap stuff with the Clippers and Houston.

They have some Denver picks that I'm not too excited about because they have Jokic.

They have a 2028 swap with Dallas that was way more exciting before Dallas with 1.8% odds won the Cooper flag letter.

Let's not talk about it.

But they have stuff they can just be like, here's four first.

We want to upgrade this spot and do it.

I wanted to do one question for each team beyond just the over-under.

Is SGA the most untradeable guy in the league for you right now?

How many people would you put over him?

We're doing trade value rankings.

Because I had him three when I did my list in January.

I had Jokic ahead of him and I I had Wemby.

SJ is going to be 20.

He's 27 years old.

He is MVP Finals MVP.

He's 31, 6, and 5 the last three seasons.

And I wrote down he's like independent movie Kobe, basically.

He's Kobe, but it's a lower budget with a director who did for scale and got a bunch of actors and they made it for $2 million and took it right to Cannes.

He's not a blockbuster.

Like he even Shea did this GQ interview, like cover story and had quotes it in.

It's, and it's like, whoa, Shea being interviewed.

Like, he's just like, we don't know anything about him.

And I think he likes it that way.

No, I mean, look, it's tempting to say Shay, Wemby, and Jokic are completely untradable.

And yet we are eight months removed from Luka Doncic getting traded like inexplicably to the Lakers.

But

I think it's just Wemby.

Like, if you're going to rank them all, I think Wemby has to be the number one most untradable.

Would you put him over Jokic has?

Wow, that's great.

I think Wemby's young, but I think he's so young.

Jokic versus Shea is is a really good argument now because Jokic is now in his 30s, right?

So you're getting basically three extra apex years from Shea.

Although maybe with the way Jokic moves, he could just play until he's 55.

It's possible.

His body looks like he's going to be able to withstand it.

I still have Joker and Wemby over him.

Wemby won Joker too.

I think Wemby's one now.

Especially after the preseason game we watched last year.

It was like, I think Wemby is now our number one.

Okay, we're all over for OKC.

Next one, ironically, the Denver Nuggets.

Their over-under is 53.5.

They are plus 470 for the conference, plus 750 for the title, 6-1 to be our one seed.

And unlike OKC, which basically returned the same team, they dumped Porter and Sarich and

Russell Westbrook.

Good joke on the internets this week about Russell Westbrook might change his name to Ted Akumpo to see if he can get signed by a team.

Mean, funny.

It really checked off my team.

It's mean to everybody.

It's mean to everybody.

Everybody's insulted.

Multiple people get insulted with that joke.

They added Cam Johnson, huge fan.

Bruce Brown, who really peaked with those guys and then was adrift for a couple of years, now back.

Jonas Valentunas, who had a weird agent situation over the summer.

Unclear if he wanted to play with Denver or not, but he's there.

And then Tim Hardaway Jr.

Plus Holmes is coming back.

This is the deepest bench they've ever had.

Zach, this is the best Nuggets team I think Jokic has ever had.

Is that fair to say?

It's in play.

It could be the best regular season team they've ever had for sure.

What would be another one for you?

Though you're the one, the title

would be, you know, with Bruce Brown and KCP and other guys who Jeff Green was still like a viable player.

Yeah, so they went seven deep that year?

Probably a little deep.

Like seven and a half.

Probably a little deeper than that.

Okay.

Yeah,

this is on par or better than that as a regular season team.

I just, I'm, we'll see how the young guys develop.

Like, I've always liked Strother, but it's never really happened.

I like Peyton Watson.

Can he make enough threes?

If, like, some of the bench young guys hit, like, Pickett is interesting

as sort of like an Andre Miller clone, but not nearly as good, but like the big, bulky point guard guy.

Interesting.

Like, it's interesting to watch somebody try to walk across

traffic interesting.

Somebody's interesting.

One of these young guys is going to pop a little bit at some point.

How much does Bruce Brown like how much of the Bruce Brown slump was just like I miss I just am longing for Jokic I miss Jokic I made a mistake or I didn't make a mistake I got paid but but yeah it's on the table this is the deepest and best regular season nuggets team what I like about this team house they can bring in dudes that aren't as good as their starters but can replicate a lot of stuff that those guys like when valence comes in You can kind of run offense through him for five minutes.

You had him in Washington.

Bruce Brown comes in.

He can kind of pretend to be Aaron Gordon for a couple of minutes.

Hardaway can come in.

He can kind of pretend to be Cam Johnson for a couple minutes.

The issue I had with them the last couple of years is the guys they were bringing to the bench.

It's almost like an NFL team where it's like, here's Lamar Jackson's backup, a guy who's a completely different quarterback than him.

And it's like, why don't you just have a running quarterback?

Anyway, what do you think of the Nuggets?

I absolutely adore them.

I'm so happy for the Joker to have this cast at this moment after what we all saw the last couple years, them being quality-wise, as good as any team in the league, them being able to stand up in a series to any team in the league.

And then they just get to that threshold moment and they just didn't have the depth.

They didn't have the depth against Minnesota.

That's right.

Yes, this is the thing.

So I absolutely, this, we've been clamoring for this for how long now?

Years, right?

You know who else was clamoring for it?

Mike Effing Malone, who gets to watch it on television this season.

Yeah.

Because him and Calvin Booth couldn't get on the same page, right, Zach?

Yeah, so they cleared out the cloud of dysfunction.

That was hanging over the organization.

David Adelman is the new coach.

Everyone seems to like him.

He's doing creative stuff in the preseason.

They're playing zone.

They're playing the centers together.

Some people are calling him Dave.

Is that on the table?

I would say he's like, he's David Adelman, but now they're so comfortable with him.

I mean, there's a couple days.

He's saved to me.

He's doing the opposite of

Malone, who went from Mike Malone to Michael Malone.

He's going long form.

It's a culture shift.

Dave Adams.

All across the board for Denver.

Maybe like one or two Davies.

I don't know, Davey.

He can't go, Davey.

Davey, were you on a quick question, Davey, on the zone defense you ended in the third quarter?

Were you on a side in the cloud of dysfunction or were you just...

I was on the side of like, I can't believe you two.

I can't believe it got this bad.

Like, the team is good.

They won a title.

How does it get this bad?

Why did it get this bad?

Valentine Schudis is interesting because, like, he's become a journeyman now.

He's been all over the Western Conference and a little bit in Washington, Toronto, obviously.

And I just think

when Jokic would go out of games, they would have just no identity.

It was like if Jamal Murray doesn't make crazy step back 20-footers, we're just not going to score.

He's not.

You were holding on for your life for five minutes.

JV is at least like, I can dump it to him in the post and kill time.

and feel like I'm not just desperately grasping at straws to score points.

I was blown away by the short stint that he enjoyed in Washington.

Well, I got lucky enough to sit low enough at a couple games in Washington.

Tickets were available.

And you could hear him talking.

And the leadership role that he played with those kids, that dude just knows how to play effing basketball.

He gets to the right spot.

He knows where everybody's supposed to be.

He tells them, go, go, move, whatever.

And he is a big boy.

That's a big boy right there.

Well, also, like, what fun situation has he been in?

Like, he was on that weird New Orleans team.

He was on Washington.

He was on Sacramento.

Like, this is like the perfect team for him.

Just come in.

We'll run everything through you for six minutes, a half.

And then, if Jokic gets in foul trouble, we actually have an option of a professional basketball.

Can I just state some some dings to the devil?

I'm excited for skeptic Zach

53 and a half.

No, the 53 and a half is a little high for Zach.

The Aaron Gordon leg stuff seems to come and go.

Looks good in the preseason.

Cam Johnson's missed a lot of games over the last couple of years.

I wouldn't say he's Kyle Ripken Jr.

I think their rebounding will take a little bit of a hit without MPJ.

That was like one of the things he did consistently pretty well for them.

Jamal Murray, all the camp reports are very exciting.

He's in

better condition and mentality than you always start slow, right?

That's one of the reasons the Nuggets.

tend to not blow away their win total over unders.

So those are like the dings, I think.

Like, do these bench veterans whose names sound good, like Bruce Brown, he did stuff for Denver, Tim Hardaway Jr.,

do they actually help the team or is their name recognition allowing their value?

And just like win totals from the last

ex-Denver seasons, 46, 47, 48, 53, 57, 50.

They just don't have a track record as like a blowaway regular season team.

Playoffs,

different story.

Absolutely terrifying with the best player on the planet and a team that makes sense.

Regular season, they're not like blowing you away.

the 57 would be the doppelganger i think for this season for me the last year the murray thing was so weird those first six weeks house i have a question for you because you've shared season tickets with people before i have and when you share season tickets with people you do a draft where you send your list and like here's my here's my 20 and then you do like somebody gets first pick and you get it If I was doing this with my season tickets, Denver would be my first pick.

Oh, wow.

I would want to see them over every other team in the league.

Would they be your first pick?

No, because I need to see Wemby.

I haven't seen Wemby yet in person.

I need to see Wemby.

So that would have been my second pick.

Yeah.

What would be your first pick?

Fortunately for you, you can go to MSGC any game you want, but would that

the Barclay Center just, you just,

you're not even considering that.

Well, I just thought they had WNBA games.

They have an NBA team?

Wow.

What's it called?

Poor Geordie.

It has the worst team name in the NBA than I thought that was where the Liberty played.

In any case.

And they have pizza.

I think Wemby

is now ascended to like, I got to see this guy again and again.

But to your point, Jokic, like, you know, I go to Toronto every year for the holidays where my wife's parents live.

The Raptors have a murder's row schedule right after Christmas, including Denver at Toronto on like New Year's Eve.

And I've told my wife and my family, like, A, we're staying.

through New Year's Eve because I'm going to that game.

And B, we're going to all go to the game together because you need to watch this dude play in person and just ravage the poor Raptors.

So it's still, it's still a hot ticket.

Can I make the Joker case?

Because you're doing this draft in September.

Jokic is playing probably 97% certainty when he's in your town.

I got a knock on wood.

Wendy, I have no idea.

I'm going to knock on wood.

Joker plays.

Joker's out there, and you know you're going to see him.

And especially if it's a bigger city, he shows up.

Unlike, say, a Joellen Biete in Denver.

Like if you're doing the season ticket draft, you live in Denver.

Embiid goes 30th because he hasn't played in Denver in a decade.

I would have Joker first, Wemby second.

Can I tell you a heartbreaker for me?

So I got laid off from ESPN last year.

What?

When did that happen?

Zach Lowe?

You still worked there.

Fuck.

Organized.

My wife, big mistake on my wife's part was like, when I got home from LA, she was like, you know what, Zach?

Carte Blanche.

Take whatever trips you want to clear your head.

And she said it in front of a dad friend of mine.

Yeah.

So the planning began: like, oh, carte blanche.

Seven dads from Connecticut descend on the deep south for a week, starting in New Orleans, built around Nuggets Pelicans.

Yeah.

Because I'm like, I'm telling you guys, this is like, this is a religious experience to watch this guy.

We had great seats.

Like, this is a religious experience to watch this guy in person.

Here was the Nuggets starting lineup that night: Dario Sarich, Michael Porter Jr., Peyton Watson, Jamal Murray, Christian Brown, Hunter Tyson got in the game.

Hunter Tyson.

Jokic's wife gave birth.

Oh, that seemed to be like a crazy event like that.

Heartbreaker.

You didn't do anything wrong.

Heartbreaker.

Found out on the flight down, news broke.

I didn't know how to break it to them.

It's like, now you guys are like, Peyton Watson is kind of funny.

Like, Mike block a shot.

You know, luckily, they played the Lakers the next night, and LeBron hit a game-winning jumper.

That was a good game.

Yeah.

First

legacy shift, new segment on the over-unders pod.

Got to talk about legacies.

Is there a star player with a bigger legacy shift brewing on a pot on the stove than Jokic this year?

Because if they win the title and he wins MVP again,

I think he's indisputably one of the best 10 players ever.

I think that has to be the outcome.

Because at that point, his 2020s,

I'm including, let's say he first teamed this year, MVP, just hypothetical.

His 2020s, just this decade, four first team, two second, four MVPs, two second place finishes, and probably should have won one of those two.

And then he would be basically a triple-double for the entire decade, plus 29, 13, and eight in 80 playoff games, whatever it's going to end up being.

Like, I just don't see how he's not on a top 10 list after that.

He has to be.

I think the more interesting question is, like,

if they never get a second title, is he still

like his statistics are so and individual honors are so crazy.

And like no one who has watched the Nuggets for the last years they haven't won the title can make a case that it's Jokic's fault like at all.

He shows up in every comes to Jerry West situation.

Like I had West in the top 10 when I did my book.

He only won one title.

I didn't hold that against him because they were in their own.

But if he gets a second one, the names he's next to, like next to immediately, not next to like, well, three more years is next to immediately are like the holy pantheon of NBA players.

He has to be with Bird and Magic at that point.

Yeah.

He's next to them.

And then we can start talking about top four years.

Yeah, we're all in agreement.

And,

you know, it's why the fist pumps, the huzzahs, as this offseason occurred and we saw this team finally giving the, you know, the assets, creating the, the multiplicity.

uh in terms of they're they're they're built to withstand a little bit of time off for gordon they're built to withstand a little time off for murray they're built to even if Joker wants a little break, I'm okay with JV getting some starter minutes there over the course of this long regular season.

The answer is hell yes.

I do wonder, I do want to have this legacy shift conversation.

I have a guy in mind.

Do we save it for when we get to that team?

If you want to hit your legacy shift button,

just pound it.

Pound it.

Okay, well, I'm sitting on mine for now.

I had one other thing on Jokic because I thought of this when I was doing the research.

And it's not 100% fair because it's a decades thing.

So somebody could peak starting in the middle of a decade and then to like the first two years of the next decade.

So you can't say, whatever.

The 60s were owned by Russell.

The 70s were owned by Kareem.

Like those are indisputable.

80s were Bird of Magic together.

90s were Jordan.

2000s were Duncan and Kobe together.

The 2010s were LeBron and Curry together.

The 20s are just Joker right now.

I don't think

we have 26, 27, 28, 29.

So we have four years.

Where do you stand on what is the decade in for the 20s?

Does it have to be the 30 season or the 29 season?

That's where it gets super confusing for me.

I have not put a lot of thought into it.

It's really

a decade.

But who would you even have in the running for the 2020s other than Joker?

If we're like, what were the 2020s?

Who owned that decade?

It's Joker right now, convincingly.

Kawhi, just for being in the news all the time.

But I mean, in the 2020s, they haven't.

No, I'm just kidding.

Shay,

maybe.

I just got your aspiration joke five seconds later.

By the way, we're in the aspiration dome.

Giannis.

Hey, would they just give us a Giannis?

Giannis is the only other one.

Giannis who hasn't made the...

I've got five years to play with.

Yeah.

25, 26, 27.

Well, so the guy who can take it over the rest of the decade is Shay.

Sure.

A couple more titles with the resume.

He's the only one, I think, that's in the.

You're just dismissing Jason Tatum?

you've already got him coming coming back in you know february celtics you know i mean that's maybe another candidate jason tatum

uh i'm over for the nuggets at 53 and a half house i am super over this is a lock put it in my book right now house lock denver over

for all the reasons I'm not going to announce my locks until

the end of the pod, but you can do whatever you want.

You can hit the legacy button whenever you want.

Nuggets over is a lot.

Are you you over, Zach?

This is one of the ones I struggled with the most.

There's like three that I went back and forth on.

I'm going under on 53 and a half

based on their history as sort of a regular season, good but not great team.

And

I can't go over on everyone in the West, right?

Like I've got to have some unders.

And so I'm going slightly under like 51 and 31, 52 and 30.

prepared to be very wrong.

I'm just going to, I just got to go under on someone.

I'm going under on them.

Playoff, different story.

I'm not, I don't want any part of these dudes in a playoff series.

I think they would be the number two seed in the West, and I'll go from there.

But I'm going under.

I would like to go on the record and say, because the season's about to start, that I think it's OKC, Denver,

and then

that's the final.

I think those are the two best teams.

Western Conference final is OKC.

And I mean, look, who knows what changes, right?

Injuries and everything.

Of course, of course.

And if you're just talking about a ceiling of a team that could potentially join that nightclub,

maybe Cleveland, just from a talent standpoint, and the fact that they won 64 last year, but I don't feel as though.

Honestly, I mentioned this on my pie yesterday.

Like, one of the fascinating, like, I rarely start thinking about seedings until we're 60 games into the season.

Everyone in the West has to be rooting for some scenario where Denver falls to four and has to play Oklahoma City in the second round, where you don't have to go through both of them because they're so clearly to me in a tier hovering above everybody else.

Would you see that GM survey?

They said, which I thought was really interesting, but they had the home court advantage question in Denver and OKC were basically like had 95% of the votes or 90% of the votes or something.

I was like, yeah, that's fair.

But that's a good point because that's another incentive for Denver to get two.

Yeah.

And be motivated to win 50%.

I'm still staying under.

I got to be under.

I'm going to be on somebody.

Can't hold it out against you.

Emails from Denver, message board, things from Denver, tweet replies from Denver.

Fuck you, Zach.

The Denver Finns went under you, motherfucker.

I was so early on Jokic that

I have a life to grandfather

with the Denver Fins.

Nuggets capital.

Minnesota's over, 49 and a half, one of the toughest ones.

They were 49 and 33 last year.

They are 10-1 to win the division and the conference, 17-1 for the title.

And

they have the seventh best finals odds.

Zach, why don't the sports books respect this team?

What is Minnesota missing?

What did they do to antagonize?

Okay, we're going to go this way.

All right.

49 wins last year.

You said like not, that's not a lot of wins.

That's under their current number.

Lost a critical bench player in Alexander Walker have to replace him mostly with young guys.

When does the Mike Conley thing just fall apart completely to the point that they have to start DiVinchen?

And there's a trickle-down effect there.

That would be the case for the line being this low.

Counterhouse?

Well, the crazy thing thing is they got to 49 after they started off really slow last year.

They were an under 500 team through the first 20, 25 years.

I would say unhappy.

I mean,

multiple podcasts for multiple weeks about what's going on with Minnesota.

Was this, is this Randall Fit like a disaster?

What's happening?

Definitely miserable.

I mean, they made a pretty traumatic trade right before the season.

It was.

It was traumatic, and it took a little bit for the chemistry experiment to work, but then we saw it work a little bit.

And I think the version of what we saw in the Western Conference finals, the second consecutive Western Conference finals, that's who this team is.

And there's still another level for Anthony Edwards.

There's still another level for that dude.

So

I am in the same place as Zach is sort of puzzled by the number being flat.

And I'm not sure what informs that.

I think the

it's anticipating the market being out on

Minnesota, not because this number hasn't moved.

It's been a hard 49 and a half.

I mean, them them having worse finals odds than the lakers is pure lunacy and

i just don't understand it they were top five net last year they have a top 10 player they still have a top five defense and one thing that i i used last year that helped me a little bit i used leaned out it more this year is the records and the numbers for the last 30 games of the season and minnesota was 20 and 10 the last 30 games there's plus 7.3 with basically the team they have and the only piece that's an X Factor is Alexander Walker who's getting those minutes other than Conley.

But they have young guys that they can throw in those Alexander Walker minutes and maybe get lucky.

Plus, they'll have a full Defincenzo year.

And Conley's like Horford.

Like, I'm just not ruling him out anymore until we see that he's just completely washed up.

I'm over.

I just think.

I think you can make a case.

This is like the fourth or fifth best team in the league.

So at that point, you have to be 50 wins and over.

So I am an over, yet again, three overs in a row for me.

Dillingham, Shannon, I like Jalen Clark.

Like, I think they can eat up the Alexander Walker minutes well enough with Ant ascending, Randall feeling more comfortable, Gobert just as a great floor for your defense.

Okay, the other case against is they got 82 games out of McDaniels last year, 82 Alexander Walker, 80 Nas, 79 Edwards, 72 Gobert, 69 Randall, although it felt like he missed more time.

They were very healthy last year, but

expected wins last year, 54.

They shat the bed in close games.

Yep.

For two months, remember?

They were

really bad.

I am going aggressively, enthusiastically over.

All right.

Aggressively over.

See, I am.

I am too.

I think this is a 50-win team.

Yeah.

And I understand why Zach wouldn't want to do Denver because

it would put him in the position that you and I are in, BS, which is another over.

Over, over, over.

We show up at the Over-Under podcast 2025, and we're banging West Overs.

And Denver's number is four numbers higher than Minnesota.

But if we think these are three of the five best teams in the league, it makes more sense.

It's just convinced Dunny they're all in the same division.

We didn't mention Julius Randall living happily in his post-marijuana life.

No more marijuana for him.

He felt like it made him distant.

It slowed him down.

His brain's clear.

He's feeling great.

Do you think that message reverberated around the NBA community and there are going to be imitators?

There was a great Durant quote, Durant quote, where Durant was like, Yeah, I respect it, but me personally, I really like the plant.

I call it the plant.

I did not see that.

I do want to hear from Zach.

This will factor in.

We'll get to Toronto eventually.

What's the Toronto situation with the plant?

That's going to factor in

crucially for me.

Are you asking me because you think I plan vacations around?

I'm generally aware as a person that spends time in Canada.

Is it a marijuana city?

I'm unaware, but Canada generally is

a

Toronto is a forward-thinking place.

So there's a player I'm thinking of that I'm worried about.

House, don't get us canceled.

Come on.

Just a player I'm worried about.

That's all.

House, are you over or under?

Over.

All right, three hours.

Well, we spent a lot of time in those three teams, so we're going to take our first break and come back with the two crappy teams in the vision.

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I don't feel like we mentioned Anthony Edwards enough in the last segment, but it's fine.

We have a whole year of podcasts for him.

We're going to go to the Portland Trailblazers.

The next team in whatever this division is called, Northwest, the State Farm Northwest division.

Presented by Kia.

They're over-under is 34 and a half, and they're plus 410 to make the playoffs, plus 200 for the play-in house.

If you want to get frisky, they had a Drew Holiday.

They traded Anthony Simons for him.

They lost DeAndre Ayton.

They didn't lose him.

They basically brought him to the airport like a suitcase and just left the suitcase and baggage.

They evicted him.

Yeah.

And they added Yang Hansen,

who

already feels like that was like one of the smartest marketing moves of the decade.

People love him.

He's selling jerseys, hats, everything.

The kids love him.

He might be good.

My kid insisted on watching every Summer League game with Yang Hansen.

The kids love

Young Hansen.

They can see his enthusiasm out there.

Yeah.

And he's really fun.

I have no idea if it's going to translate to NBA games, but I do enjoy him.

The one thing with this over-under,

and I was leaning more toward over, but Scoot tore his hamstring and is out.

They're like one to two months.

I feel like that's one of those injuries where you're not right for a while, even when you come back.

And

Zach.

That shaded me toward the under here.

Okay.

36 wins last year.

So they went over this number.

Expected wins, 33.

Fattened up at the end of the season, 23 and 18 in their last 41, which you could read either way.

They found something or they took advantage of, you know, the miraculous.

You know what they found?

House's old friend, Denny Avdia.

He was wired.

He was unbelievable.

He was like one of the best 20 players in the league down the stretch.

And I think that was totally real.

I think that dude is a legitimate,

like very good player.

Shaden maybe goes up a level.

Yeah.

Grant only played 47 games last year.

Might be 46 too many.

We both had the same joke.

I'm sure you're hoping this is the year Time Lord plays 80 games.

He's still on the Blazers.

Not betting on that one.

I am going under on this, which surprised me because I felt like a...

kind of a jolt of optimism about how the Blazers finish the season.

I'm like super intrigued by their young guys.

I just don't like their depth.

I think their offense is going to be putrid.

Like there's just no shooting.

I don't know if the centers are really ready for this level of offensive responsibility in Klingen and Yang.

And the West is just really, really good.

I think Portland's going to be solid.

Their defense is going to be really good.

Like Kamara, Abdia, Klingen, like a rock-solid defensive team.

I just think they're not going to score enough to go over this number.

So I'm going slight under.

This is literally the script.

They can't score.

And I don't want the Portland Soccer Bombs to get mad at me.

I love this Portland team.

I root for them because Denny, Denny, I root for Denny.

It broke my heart when they shipped him out of Washington.

I understood why.

I get the timeline that Washington is on.

He's too good for the Washington timeline.

And I'm glad for him to be in the situation that he's in, but I think that they are going to have a hard time scoring the basketball.

And so I am doing the under play for the Portland.

I was surprised.

I was over in my head all offseason.

And I think here's the title that they're going to win because I think we all think they're going under, and I think they will.

They might have a chance to be 2026's hipster NBA team.

Oh, that's that's a good idea.

Defense, there's going to be some really good defense.

Say Camera.

We have to say Camera's name multiple times.

Yeah, we have to say Tamani Kamara.

I said it.

Kamara.

I like when you called him Camera, though.

I'm going to keep because you had the first battle prop ism of the pod.

It's going to be the first mispronunciation.

One of a dozen.

Kamara,

who I think was really the thinking man's,

like that

really, really, really nerdy epicenter of basketball on the internet, where people are like, look at these fucking numbers when this guy plays.

Look at the numbers of guys that he guards and how much he's, I think I voted for him, second team defensive, all defense.

I didn't have the ballot, but I would have.

He had a first-team case.

He made it.

Scoot.

I still have all my Scoot stock, feeling great about it.

And then Yang Hansen.

I think this will be a really fun league pass team, but you made the key point, House.

Like, no scoop for two months.

We're not even positive if he's going to be like,

I don't know, an efficient offensive player.

But I thought, you know, Simons, the Simons is intriguing.

The Celtics are like, oh, boy.

Zach knew I was going to do this.

The Celtics are like, whoa, Simons.

Like, this guy's like a really gifted offensive player.

Like, you can run offense for him in the last four minutes of the game.

And he did that a lot for the Blazers last year.

He did.

And they just pull that out.

And guess what?

I love Drew Holiday, but that's not Drew Holiday.

And I don't have a lot of faith that he's going to get to 60, 65 games for the Blazers.

They're already down one guard and scooted.

It should be noted, like, I think their incentives are all like, we're trying to win this year.

We're diehard trying to get in the play-in, chase it, whatever, like, is win as much as we can get.

Their heart's in the right place.

However, they do owe a lottery protected pick to the Bulls.

So like if things are not going great 55 games into the CG, you always have to factor those in.

You always have to factor it in.

I don't think they care.

I don't think it's going to guide their thinking.

It's just if we get to a point where we have to start thinking about them.

I didn't love the Drew Holiday season last year.

And I said that as somebody who loves Drew Holiday.

And

I thought it was alarming that he couldn't guard anyone on the Knicks because I thought a year ago he's somebody who could have guarded all of the Knicks.

And in that Knicks playoff series, I just, I was really surprised.

that he wasn't at that same level.

I mentioned this because

they're paying Drew Drew Holiday, Jeremy Grant, and Dame Lillard, who's not going to play this year, it combines $77 million.

And wait, that then goes to $82 million guaranteed the year later.

But wait, $88 million in year three of that for those three guys and how they will be like 37 at that point.

It's really bad cap management.

I'm just going to say it.

Like when we have the second apron and stuff, that's just a lot of money to pay for those guys.

I don't agree with it.

Well, Grant was the desperation trying to keep Dame.

You know, we promised you this deal.

It was the Miles Turner.

I really want to stay married.

Here's a ring.

The Drew, I did this.

Here's a new ring.

I gave you a new carrot.

Please don't divorce me.

The Drew trade was a little ahead of their skis for me.

That was like a very win-now.

We need an adult in the room.

We need leadership, which is like all that stuff is valuable, but it's not as valuable as a $37 million player option three seasons from now.

That's just it was a miracle trade for the Celtics.

Yeah, I get, listen, I get why they did it.

It's good to have adults around,

it really is.

That's that's fundamentally like they just felt you, you can just be too young, and it's nice to have a couple people.

Like, even I was talking to,

I was talking to our friend Callie Curry because Seth went to Golden State, and it's like, well, what's different about Golden State than Charlotte?

other I don't think she'd mind me saying this and she's like well they have like

people his age on

Golden State, like Curry, Al Horford, Draymond Green, Jimmy Butler.

Like, these are older players.

Uh, there's something to have a couple old guys around.

So, I get it why Portland's like, hey, we need a couple more experienced guys.

Drew is like a beloved locker room guy.

I get it.

I mean, that's like using

it, but I get it.

What's the difference between Maui and Galveston?

Like, what?

What kind of question is that?

Are we three unders?

Three unders.

Unders.

Okay.

Utah Jazz, over under 19 and a half

they were 17 and 65 last year

they lost John Collins Jordan Clarkson and Collins Sexton

didn't really get anything back for any of those guys they have Kyle Anderson

they have uh my comeback player of the year pick Yusuf Nurkic

that's not true uh George Neang, and they added Ace Bailey and Walter Clayton.

And most importantly, Zach, we'll keep mentioning this this with the picks.

They owe a top eight first protected to OKC, which means to be safe,

you want to be in the bottom five to feel really good about not having to hand that pick over.

I don't know where to start with this team.

Let's start here.

How does Will Hardy explain his job to his wife?

When he's home at night, what does he say?

This is year four for Will Hardy being like, hey, if it's cool, we want to go 18 and 64 again i think you say there are only 30 of these uh my they keep extending my contract into perpetuity do you like the home we live in school system seems pretty good like we're living with like the vac five-star hotels on vacation all summer wherever we go seems great yeah i think it's a good situation i think he's like look and like look around the league at the coaches if he became available he would i mean you know instantly by any of the top teams in the league if a top team needed to make, make a move.

Like, none of this is going to besmirch his team.

San Antonio?

Interesting, interesting name.

This is why Utah, I mean, they've literally, I've lost count of how many contract extensions Will Hardy has got.

Like, I assume his deal runs for like 17 more years.

They know, but that's what you do.

Like, if you believe in a coach and the coach is going through a rebuild, you give him these kind of years.

So it's not the classic thing where as soon as the team gets good, oh, we're hiring the veteran.

He's overqualified for this team.

And that's been the case for all four years.

plus it worked out incredible for brett brown that's what i'm saying you don't want that you you treat that was a joke i know but that's what i'm saying you this is what the extensions this is you just made the case that brett brown's friends were making in the 2010s no this is great someday it's going to be awesome and he's never coached but they never gave him like extensions on top of extensions on top of extensions like the jazz are doing with

why do you think they gave him the gm job that's true took marco folts over jason tatum that wasn't him wasn't him who was it i think that was

one of the.

Oh, here's my next what's in it for you at this point.

What's in it for Lori Marketen house at this point?

Why does he want to be in this team?

$175 million.

Great contract.

Yeah, a lot of dollars.

Well, they gave him the extension.

You're being the team this year, and then we'll talk about it after.

Nice, comfortable situation.

Not being asked to do too much.

That's the only, that's the over-argument is that the number is extremely low.

And they have an all-star borderline, all-star level player who played 47 games last year, and a good starting center who played 58.

And if they get 75 games out of those two, can they go over this number?

Because the bigger issue beyond that is I think all these other veterans are going to go to contenders.

I think a guy like George Ngang could help a contender.

I think

they're all going.

The biggest issue to me is like, who in the hell is dribbling the ball for this team that I trust to manage?

productive NBA possessions.

And I had the answer is like, at this point, and

it's not a bad thing because they're all so young, I don't trust anybody.

And so, like, Lowry Markinen is not like a first option ball handler type of star.

I just don't know that combined with the possibility of them trading Markinen, I'm going, I'm going under, which is shocking considering 19 and a half is like an embarrassingly low number.

It's a super low number.

The thing that makes me nervous about it is that Ace Bailey might be a badass motherfucker.

And it might make those people so excited that they come out and they try and win games.

They do like what Brooklyn did last year, which is they come out and win some games early on in the season

and, you know, look really good.

Hold on.

I'm on with my realtor.

I told him we'd be calling.

Because apparently Ace Bailey Island, there's constantly.

There's no island.

How is there an island?

It's a giant island.

It's like a

top five.

It's a huge island.

He was a top three that slid.

There's a beachfront property available on Ace Bailey Island.

I'm in.

Are you in?

I assume we're all in.

Yeah, we're all in.

We're all in.

It's overcrowded.

It's overcrowded.

The bars are packed.

No, he's telling me it's not overcrowded.

But like, he said that

all the stuff in the offseason made people nervous, right?

Yeah, okay.

All right, we're in.

He's going to be very exciting.

I'm high on him.

He's going to have crazy highlights.

I just don't think it's going to be like efficient against adult NBA teams.

That's all.

Counter.

He looked like a more filled-out 19-year-old Kevin Durant in all the highlights I've seen so far.

I would take it.

I would take it a little easy.

I said, look.

I just said, look, you can't see my boner right now.

Zach Lowe is sending you some settle-down juice, right?

He's pushing it.

I assume you're going way over.

No, I'm going under.

I am going under as well.

But I just want to make the case that Ace Bailey is the argument for the over.

Because, I mean, like that enthusiasm.

I actually thought he was going to be a bust after,

but like some of the advanced stats with him as a college player, combined with how erratic some of the non-basketball stuff seemed, and then him going to Utah and not seeming like he wanted to go there.

And I was like, oh, man.

But I understand why Danny did it because it's like, you have to go highest ceiling.

This guy's the highest ceiling.

You got to do it.

But then all the stuff I've read, all the stuff I've heard, and then watching him, how comfortable he seems physically in these games already when he's like a baby.

He's a big basketball player.

He has more like thickness and size than I was expecting.

And then the the shot i don't know if he would be fun to play with he might just be like his own solo act but i think it's gonna be really easy for him to score and it may be right away which to me makes me think that maybe you move faster on marketing like trying to make the trade because it's like you can put ace in like let's get him the ball let's get him shots and i just want to say for the utah fans me saying who's dribbling the ball I watched your team.

I saw what Isaiah Collier did.

Like solid.

Keontae George has flashes.

I'm just seeing like, this is the NBA.

It's hard to run offense and their efficiency numbers were bad.

If you have property on Ace Bailey Island, which is, by the way, ridiculous, it's like a continent.

Can I get like a little condo on Filipowski Fjord?

Like,

I like that guy.

He's pretty good.

I like him too.

I like Sensiba.

I like some of the guys in this team.

They're going to be terrible this year.

Yeah.

Um, they're going to watch them, by the way.

So, our only disagreement in this entire division

is Denver.

I'm under, and you're over.

That's it.

So far, you know,

we're all under on this.

Yes, we're all under.

Yeah, we're all under.

Can I give you three marketing teams really quick?

Sure.

Detroit's been

the sexy one.

Could this be our last gas golden state move?

They already tried to get them.

I'm not sure how that one works now with Butler in the door, salary-wise.

Comingo, they can't patch the salaries together or no?

They have picks to trade.

I mean, Kaminga's got a baseball.

Coming up, Moody,

Buddy Healed,

all their picks.

Is Camingo on the right timeline for Utah?

I don't know.

That I don't know.

Would I want to jeopardize the Ace Bailey continent with Kaminga?

I'm not sure.

Should Houston have gone after marketing over KD?

That's a fascinating question.

That's a good one.

I was thinking about that the other day.

Look, would Utah have taken Jalen Green, Dylan Brooks in the number 10 for marketing?

But probably like another first.

You'd have to throw in like more stuff, right?

Maybe a Brooklyn pick?

Yeah, you'd have to throw in more stuff.

And the contract is like

the contract is right now after he played 47 games last year, not entirely his fault.

The Jazz were faking injuries and all that stuff.

Yep.

The contract is kind of an eye of the beholder contract.

Like you can find executives around there who are like, I don't know if I want to pay Lowry Marking in $54 million in four years.

I did, I sent House the depth charts, the starters bench for each team.

Utah's bench, Ace Bailey, Williams, Sensibach, Clayton,

Powski.

Are they going to play him and Marketing together?

Let's go.

What are we waiting for?

Good point.

All right, we're moving to the Southwest division, which is led by the Houston Rockets, over under 52 and a half, minus 220 to win the division, which surprised me.

17-1 for the title, 10-1 for the conference.

They were 52 and 30 last year.

They added Kevin Durant.

You might have heard of him.

Clint Capella for some reason.

Finney Smith.

They lost Dylan Brooks and Jalen Green.

They lost Landale, who I like.

They lost Whitmore to House's Wizards.

Let's go, Whitmore.

And sadly, they lost Fred Van Vleet.

And

I think that's the question with this over-under is I'm old school.

I still believe point guards kind of matter.

And this seems like a high number and a really good conference for a team that I have no idea who's going to be handling the ball for them against pressure and crunch time situations, who's going to be making sure people get the ball properly?

I talked about this with Goldsbury last week.

Like

there's some stagnation, toilet ball offense potential with this team.

52 seemed high, Zach.

What'd you think?

The Van Vleet injury is a killer.

Ahmed Thompson, Reed Shepard, you know, they'll get their turns.

We'll see how that goes.

I think game to game, their floor is really high because their defense is going to be so good.

Their rebounding is going to be so good and they're going to play super hard every single night um

i'm worried about eason missing games because he misses games every year van vliette's already out finney smith has had health issues in the offseason durant generally checks in at like 60 games durant was in the 2007 draft yeah yeah he's were you married yet

no

how many wives ago was that that's not funny i've only been married to one wife but i took my time that's why I wasn't married in 2007.

I thought it was kind of funny.

52 and a half is a big number.

I'm surprised it didn't move a little bit more with Van Vliet's injury.

Me too.

And I am going under on the Rockets.

Oh, I wanted to be the first one to say under on the Rockets.

I'll be the second one to say under on the Rockets.

That's the case.

I think they're going to be like 50 and 30, 49 and 33, 48 and 34.

But I'm going under.

That's a big number.

Just tell me who they're going to acquire for the FEV spot.

They need a body.

That's the wild card.

They can make any kind of trade they want.

Just make your case for your team with this in this spot.

Well, I do think that CJ McCollum would be kind of an incredible replacement for FEV.

I think it's like an 85 cents on the dollar kind of thing.

I had to shout out my guy, Ben Standig, who threw that at me.

He's like, why wouldn't Houston grab CJ?

I was like, you know what?

That's a goddamn good point.

The other thing, the reason to be concerned about this number is because

their coach is just a monster.

And

you would worry looking at this team coming in with the FEV injury and say the chemistry piece of this is going to be funky.

Are they going to be like Minnesota, a 500 team for a little while until they figure it out?

Not with Emay.

I think they're going to come in prepared.

Are you sending out Bambleet in this McCollum trade?

Yeah.

Just cold-hearted?

Like, thanks for your support.

Cold-hearted.

Enjoy your rename.

House is just ice cold when it comes to trades.

Ask him about Isaiah Thomas.

Yeah, that's fair.

I mean, this is the NBA.

It's a one to ten scale with the 10 being trading Isaiah Thomas when he had a hurt hip.

That was just fucking brutal.

I didn't feel good about that.

Houston wants to win the title.

They acquired Kevin Durant.

How many more years is Kevin Durant going to be effective?

So the case for the over 52,

if you're going to make it,

Thompson would have to go make the leap that everyone's been.

He's making a leap.

But I'm saying like a leap leap.

Like reliable 18 to 22 points.

We'd have to be like, holy shit, this guy's turned into, I think, a pretty amazing two-way player.

But the other thing is, defense is good with the over-unders.

I was like, if you're reliable defense tonight tonight over 82 games,

it's usually a decent indicator with the overs.

And I think Shangoon goes up a notch this year, too.

Eurobasket?

You wouldn't do it.

What?

I wouldn't watch it?

You weren't watching the Eurobasket pay-per-views.

You were just highlighting.

I don't need another streaming service, but I think Shangoon

still has untapped stuff.

House didn't watch it he just went on nba reddit a couple times and watched highlights of good enough that's it that was all you had good enough uh uh-oh legacy makeover oh my uh-oh i'll be where we're doing it aren't we

you're we're doing it we're just gonna dive right in and do do the do the thing if they make the finals this year with without van vliet and durant's the centerpiece of this super happy it's it's it's a this is like the last thing that could shift anything for him i think because i think people have decided one way or another on him.

If you year for the camp, like I think you and I are in in-house where it's like, we actually think this guy's better than people realize.

This career was better

in 17 and 18 on Golden State.

He actually was fucking unbelievable.

That 14 MVP season, all the scoring stuff.

I think he's the best pure scoring forward of all time.

The LeBron fans will debate that because they'll be like, well, LeBron has the most points.

I'm just saying, like, just from getting two points, I think he's the surest bet we've ever had at the forward position.

And yet there's all the other stuff that we don't need to go into and all the baggage and how unhappy the Phoenix thing was, how unhappy the Brooklyn thing became, 2016, OKC up 3-1 in that series, blowing it.

2014, not being able to get over the hump.

There's a lot of ways you can ding him.

But if he takes Houston to the finals as their best guy,

that's like an unbelievable new wrinkle to this.

Look, we could do three hours.

We probably will at some point.

Reconstructing Kevin Durant's career or going through the alternate realities of Kevin Durant's career after that 2016 season, including one where maybe he goes and saves the Wizards.

I would say he's had the most sliding doors of any NBA player of this century, even if you started with the Seattle thing.

Just him

moving and just having that nucleus.

He's probably still there now in the Seattle Supersonics.

And I think

he and his people were caught off guard by, and I don't think they should have been, but just like the perception that the Warriors championships count as like half championships.

Like he's just never going to get the credit that a two-time finals MVP should for those two seasons because they, the deck was stacked.

Yeah.

And he's been searching for Brooklyn, Phoenix, and like, you know, it just hasn't worked.

And he's part of the reason it hasn't worked.

Like, he's been awesome, but he's like the mood of those teams has not been very happy.

Anything to ad house?

No, I agree.

He turned down your team like seven different times.

You didn't even take the calls.

Didn't take the calls.

Zach knows.

I didn't have to say it.

Yeah.

I mean, you can understand why.

Franchise in Washington finally has a good front office.

Have you decided on KD or could he do anything with the rest of his career that would change anything in your head?

I feel like there's two more years.

It's this year and next.

And let's see what happens.

I'm excited just to have him have all the Jalen Green possessions from last year, just in my head with the Rockets.

Just give him all of the Jalen Green dribbling the ball up for 15 seconds and doing some sort of Jalen Green play.

That'll be fun.

Oops, sorry.

So

are you reigniting your feud with Jalen Green?

Is that what's happening right now?

No, I'm just excited to see Kevin Duran.

Are you going under?

What's your call?

I'm a hard under.

No, I'm just under.

I think this is, they're somewhere in the 48 to 51 range for me, but I think

them going 53 and 29 or higher without Van Voit seems insane to me.

In this conference, if they're in the East, more of an argument.

Zach, I asked Goldsbury this last week.

West teams you'd want to be the next five years,

OKC and San Antonio are 1-2 in some order, correct?

Yeah, I mean, without thinking about it, it's hard to beat.

It's hard to beat one-time.

Those two are the top two house, you agree?

OKC, San Antonio.

You'd want to have those rosters and those assets over anybody else.

Okay.

Does Houston have a case for the third spot?

This is a great question.

I gave you Houston, Denver, Dallas.

Minnesota.

Minnesota is the one that I think is the closest for me.

I think Anthony has to be.

I think it has to be

blink test, as you like to say.

I think it has to be Houston.

Because of the picks.

The picks and Ahmed Thompson.

Just give me all the Ahmed Thompson stock.

And the trade flexibility.

Yeah.

Yeah.

I think we all agree.

All right, San Antonio.

43.5

is the over-under.

There was some action on this.

This was 44.5 last week.

It dropped.

Plus 450 for the division.

Hold that thought.

35 to 1 for the conference.

65 to 1 for the title.

Minus 166 for the playoffs.

They won 34 games last year, even though Wemby did not play after the all-star break.

They added Luke Cornette.

and Kelly Olinik.

They added Dylan Harper, the second pick in the draft.

They added Carter Bryant.

and they lost CP3 Mamu, who I know you love.

Branham.

They have new coach Mitch Johnson.

Fox is out to start the season.

So the case here would be, are these guys 10 wins better than last season?

What do you think, House?

Are they 10 wins better?

Just right out of the box?

Nope.

I don't think so.

It's asking a lot with the injury uncertainty.

And I don't feel like we're completely in the clear with injury uncertainty with this team.

Like the way they're building, Wemby looks unbelievable.

So is that a Wemby injury certainty?

It's just across the

past perennial.

Yes, I'm going to be until we get 70 games from him.

Give me a nice, nice, easy,

reliable 70.

And then, you know, then we can build from there after what happened.

So, and the Fox thing is a bummer also.

10 wins is just a bridge too far for me.

And I think the West, this is a function of how competitive the West is.

I only have like one team dropping out of the top 10, one team moving into the top 10.

The Spurs ain't it.

So it's an under for me.

Zach Lau, over.

Over.

43 and a half over.

I don't even like, I just think Wembadiam is incredible and he's going to be, I mean, what's the, at worst, the sixth or seventh best player in the NBA this year, top 10 defense all by himself.

The Fox thing makes me nervous.

The Fox injury was my only pause.

The only reason I even thought about this.

You can say, well, do they have enough shooting around onebody?

I'm a fair question.

How does Fox, Harper, Castle, three ball handlers who are shaky three-point shooters?

How does that all fit?

Sohan is another non-shooter.

I think the Cornette thing is a massively underrated upgrade for their team.

Olinik can help their team.

I just, but to me, it comes down to, I just think this dude is so goddamn good, and their supporting cast is good enough that I can get to 44, 45 wins.

I'm over.

Best big men, year three.

Wow.

Duncan won the title in year two.

Kareem also won the title in year two.

Hakeem lost the finals in year two.

So these are all things that happen the first three years of someone's career.

Dave Cowens, year three, MVP, 68 wins, Eastern Conference finals.

Shaq, year three, 57 wins, made the finals.

David Robinson, year three, was his famous fantasy season house, 23 and 12 with 6.8 stocks, blocks, and steals combined.

Moses, 49 wins, Eastern Conference finals.

The only two, Yao had 51 wins.

The only two year three guys out of the great centers, Ewing and Dwight, where nothing happened.

We had him on a TV last night as we watched football.

And

I just think it's indisputable that he looks way better than he did as a rookie, that he moves better.

All the shit that he's doing with.

He's a tiny bit heavier.

He's a tiny bit.

He doesn't look like like a

baby deer running around in the woods that's falling over half the time.

Like he doesn't,

he's just moving fluidly.

And there's some stuff he's added.

Like he has this crazy two-hand shack dunk now where he

thrusts his chest and groin into the guy's face, basically.

Christ and groins.

Yeah.

It's been a, there's been a lot of innuendos, you know.

No, no, no.

He's friendly.

What do you expect?

Yeah.

The three-point shot looks more fluid.

I'm with you.

I think he might be actually awesome.

Like he's 12 to 1 in the MVP.

I think it's like a reality.

I'm saying he's already awesome.

He's awesome.

I'm saying like MVP conversation, 12 to 1.

Awesome.

He's in the MVP conversation.

I said this last week on my pod.

It's like people keep saying like, well, if things go right, he could get in the fringe of.

No, he's in.

He's going to be in the MVP.

He's one of the best six players in the league.

So to me, it's an automatic over.

But we didn't mention one thing.

You skipped over it.

Because you mentioned Cornette and Olinic.

And I think that's going to be really important that they actually have competent big guys that can play with him, that can come in when he's missing a game, whatever.

I was thinking of a nickname for them, House.

Cornette.

Cornet and Olinik.

Olinik.

I can offer you white castles,

cracker barrels, or the mayonnaise men.

I like the mayonnaise men.

Or just the Mayo men.

I'm so sad that Cornette's not on the Celtics.

Are you over it?

Are you like?

Well, not only, I mean, my dad has really been inconsolable, but he was also like a great locker room, like really beloved personality.

Did we just think gestures on the court after random abuse?

Just a great teammate.

Even the teammates were like, I don't know where, like, what that signifies.

That's another thing.

The Spurs, I think there's, I think the chemistry is going to be awesome.

I agree.

But we didn't mention one thing, and I think it's really important.

And I don't think it's been mentioned enough.

And I think people just assumed he wasn't going to be impactful this year, myself included.

But watching.

Some of the preseason.

This is the only preseason team that I've actually watched multiple times, plus reading the stuff about the team and the quotes from people.

I think Harper is going to be good right away.

I think he's going to be actually impactful.

And when you watch him, and he's, you know, he's a kid.

He was a freshman in college last year.

There's a comfort and an ease with how he plays that you just see immediately.

He really knows where to go.

He's got, he's patient already.

He's big.

He's not like this.

you know, 19-year-old guard coming in who's like, oh man, when he grows into his body, like he has the fucking body already.

He's lefty.

And I think there's something really special there potentially with him.

And granted, I've only watched him a little bit, but to me, that is the X factor.

I'm already counting in Wemby.

It's the Harper piece.

That's fine.

And I'll just, I'm content with waiting to see it.

I want to say out loud, I know that Wemby played over 70 games his rookie year and then 46 last year.

I don't need people saying, hey, he played 70.

Well, I want to see it post this kind of injury.

He had a major medical issue.

Yeah, he's gigantic.

That's what this is about.

And I'll reserve judgment on Dylan Harper.

I also, I think there's a castle everybody forgot about me, and I've worked really hard in my game, and I'm really good, too.

I don't think we forgot about it.

I mean, one rookie of the year is just like not that.

It's not.

It wasn't all.

When you talk about this team, you talk about Wemby, you talk about Dylan Harper, you talk about all the bench ads.

And nobody's like, oh, they also have Castle, who's the best rookie last year.

I think this is like a great landing spot for Dylan Harper.

Everyone is fixated on like Fox and how does he fit timetables?

Like, he can, if when Fox is back, he you can play Dylan Harper 15 minutes a game.

You don't have to force feed him anything.

You don't have to overdo it.

You can stagger the minutes so that Fox is out, he's in, and Wemby's in at the same time because you're going to stagger and like make his life a little bit.

I think it's a great spot for him.

And I just want to say, did you guys see the highlight of Carter Bryant chased down block attempt where he's like, it's in the flow of the game and he jumps and he's his hand is above the screen.

They're measuring backwards.

Yeah, I saw that.

Like, if this guy can give them anything on offense, he is such a freak and such an elite defender already.

Like, I'm tempering my excitement.

Well, that's the thing.

That's fine.

I'm going to lose.

You guys are going to win this one.

I'm not just a hard over.

I'm a fully erect over.

I want you to know the market moved.

Like, they were 44 and a half, and people thought that was too rich.

So that's, it settled at 43 and a half.

and i'm just you know i'm gonna just temper my enthusiasm there's a couple

there's one fando bet i wanted to mention they're three to one to win 50 games

and i think

i think of all the teams that we're not thinking of as 50 win teams this is the team that has the ceiling for me because like you just mentioned carter bryant they have multiple athletes at these wing spots I always think about it like if you're just on another team and you're looking at the schedule like, oh, where are we going this week on our road road trip?

And you, San Antonio is one of the teams, you're like, fuck.

This is a, and they got, they got, they got stuff to trade.

They got anything they need to trade.

They have stuff to trade, which was the last piece of this house.

They have all their own first.

Yeah.

They have first swap with Atlanta this year, which might not matter.

They have Atlanta's unprotected next year.

They got some Boston, Dallas stuff.

They have a swap with Sacramento in 31.

Anything you got with Sacramento is always a golden ship.

And they have some contract stuff to, you know, like they, like, they can put like Barnes with Keldon Johnson.

If you want Vassell, like we'll talk about it.

Like they could, they could pretty quickly add up to like a 40 to 45.

Like this could be a marketing team.

This could be on the list.

They're on my marketing list.

That's a good one.

This could be an out-of-nhere Jalen Brown team.

I mean, like, who knows?

You can't even pencil in a better fit than Marketing and Wembanyama.

It's just if you have Marketing and Wembanyama Fox, you are now loaded with like $350 million plus salaries.

Harper was the one that flipped it for me, though.

You just, you know, like sometimes you know with this shit.

That guy belongs on a basketball court with good players.

I think there's something with him and Wemby that

they, I mean, them getting it, they didn't expect when they traded for Fox, they didn't know they were getting the second pick, right?

I don't think they trade for Fox if they know they're getting the second pick.

I think they probably saved the assets, even though that was a pretty fair trade for them.

All right, next team.

Wow, if you thought our boners weren't in full swing, the Dallas Mavericks over 40 and a half.

They are plus 850 for the division.

They are plus 108 for the playoffs, which might be my single favorite bet on the board, not the tip of my hand.

They're third, nine, 43 last year.

They lost Spencer Dinwiddie and they added D'Angelo Russell.

They don't have Kyrie for probably two-thirds of the season.

They added Cooper Flagg, who has a chance, Zach,

to be the most impactful American rookie since Anthony Davis.

And I think that's in play, and I think it's going to happen.

Okay.

Over, under.

Just flat out, you're asking me.

Well, where do you want to start?

This was the one that I struggled with the most.

I mentioned to you after I left last night before the Commanders blew that game.

Sorry.

Come on.

I thought we were new pod friends here.

That I was going to go revisit.

Just make sure Adam locked in.

This was the team that I was struggling the most with.

It's a 40 and a half.

It's like right, obviously right in the middle.

Flag is going to be awesome.

They're a weird team that trends super big, you know.

I mean, they're just openly not starting a guard.

Yeah, last night they're like, what if, yeah, what would it look like if we just don't even start D'Angelo Russell and we don't have Kyrie Irving and we don't really have another what did they do?

Flag, Washton, Gafford, Davis.

It was a gigantic lineup.

Yeah, everybody was like six, seven, and up.

And Clay is still here.

They got, you know, it's a strange team.

I am going under on 48 and a half.

Okay.

I'm I'm stunned.

Well,

can I?

You know what?

You're not allowed on Cooper Flag Island.

No.

Not everything can be an island.

You're not allowed to be able to do it.

An island is designed to be something with a limited population and a small territory.

It's fair.

All right.

Here's my case

for this.

These are Anthony Davis's games played.

This is exactly the right end.

62, this is from 2020 on.

62, 36,

40, 56, 76, 51, 42.

If it's 55 games or 50 games, they're going under.

Like they just, with Kyrie missing two-thirds of the season, nothing about Flag, love flag, love their centers, love the PJ Washington deal, love some of their depth hits.

Shout out Najee Marshall.

I like Max Christie, blah, blah, blah.

If they just don't get enough games out of Kyrie coming off a massive injury and AD, who I just read the game logs, I 41 wins in the West is a bridge just a teeny bit too far for me.

Wow.

Boy, when you're talking about your concerns about Anthony Davis's durability, that's just right in the house, wheelhouse.

I think he was the first person ever to express concerns.

Look,

fully healthy, and I don't know if you can count on Kyrie fully.

They're more a next-year team than it is this year team because of Kyrie.

Kyrie changes their team, obviously.

Fully healthy, they're a scary motherfucking team in the playoffs.

I'm just talking about getting through 82 games and winning more than half your games.

It's, it's a, it's, if I have to get, plus, there's a sneaky like,

if this season is not going great and we do have injuries, this is one of the only years we control our first round pick in the next half decade.

So I'm going, I'm just, enough is pulling me to under.

Well, we know that they'll gladly tank down the stretch.

I mean, we have recent memory to look at for that exercise.

That's how they got Derek Lively.

Man, this one

is indeed the most difficult.

Really, probably across the whole.

Because of the Davis thing.

Yeah, I mean, Anthony.

If I told you AD was playing 65 games this year, you would go over.

You wouldn't even think twice.

No, not even think twice.

He has played 65 games once since 2017, 18.

So what are you doing, House?

Over.

Because 40 and a half.

This team.

with the size and the wings and the versatility, you're asking for a 500 team

get to the over.

And I think Cooper Flag

with

45 Anthony Davis games is enough for the over.

I also think, here's the thing

that I really regret.

Karma, the basketball gods, should be on the side of an under, should be this team sucking ass this upcoming season as the because I mean

they're in the lottery again with another chance and they get in with that chair they get the 14 pick that's that's the karma that the basketball gods should

reward.

Counter.

Great trade.

They traded

Luca for Anthony Davis and Cooper Flag.

Fuck me.

I don't know.

Maybe Nico knew what he was doing.

It's a vision.

He saw the vision.

You see it.

He had the vision.

This total dropping from 41.5 to 48.5 put it right into my kisser, and it's a 41-win team.

So I'll take the over.

I mentioned earlier the teams that the people look at the schedule and they're like, fuck, we're playing that team.

I think Dallas is another example.

This is just a long, scary team that's going to try really hard.

Flag tries as hard as any real team.

I love this.

It hurts me to go under for that reason.

I just think they're going to have an intensity that's going to cover up some of, like, okay, Davis isn't playing for four weeks.

They're actually probably fine if he doesn't play for a couple of weeks because they actually have big men depth.

It's like, all right, fine.

I guess we'll just play Gafford and Lively with Cooper Flag at Power Four.

I love Lively.

We'll be okay.

I think Lively is being slept on as like a potential leap guy.

I just, the strangeness plus the injury risk, plus the West just being loaded, I'm going like slight, slight under.

It's very, it's very fair case.

Who's going to shoot threes on this team and knock them down?

Clay.

Clay.

Well,

that's that, right.

D'Lo, don't forget about first three months of the season, D'Lo.

I would like.

This is what he does.

I'm okay with forgetting about him.

You're going over?

I'm going hard over.

Yeah, he's over.

I think this team's going to be good.

I already bet on this.

Is Anthony Davis the 21st century's most frustrating superstar?

Or would you pick someone else?

Granted, he's won a title.

Just in basketball or in other words?

Basketball.

Nobody's more frustrating than Joellen Bede.

Oh, good counter.

Nobody.

Oh, you know what?

That just, okay.

Yeah,

I was going to nominate Hardin,

but he's one multiple.

He's one AMBP, rather.

Fair enough.

And he's made it to a conference.

It's Joellen Biede.

You know, we talked about Dylan Harper.

We talked.

Yeah, Ben Simmons is up there, too.

He made an all-NBA team.

No, Gilbert Arenas just got hurt.

Gilbert Arenas seemed like

as good as Kobe for like a year and a half.

No, maybe for three months.

Flag and Harper, I just wanted to say this, that this draft is night and day from last year, where last year some of the guys, like Reed Shepard was the third pick and just was like a G-League player.

We don't know if he's good or not.

This year's draft, Flag has a chance to be like a transformative star.

I think Harper is really special.

Edgecombe is going to be winning Twitter and NBA Reddit and Instagram.

Ace Bailey, we are fascinated by.

How's this dude, Trey Johnson?

Yeah, he's going to be good.

God damn, we got this.

He's going to be a really good guy.

He's going to be an excellent scorer.

Dude, you're going to be good.

And then all these other like wings, these athletic wings that some of these teams have.

I don't know.

I think this draft's awesome.

Did you intentionally skip over Bill Simmons' 2028 Olympian, Konkan Ipple?

Just left him.

Is he above this discussion?

I'm trying.

I talked to my lawyers and they said, only talk about Khan during the Charlotte part because it's getting weird.

So

I'm just trying to obey that.

But yeah, he's another one, though.

He's going to play 35 minutes a game.

I think the kid in Toronto is going to be sick.

This is like, has it really has a chance to be an all-time,

we'll look back six years from now and be like, oh my God.

And we've had a couple of those drafts over the years, but I think this one will be a really good one.

Memphis, 39 and a half, dropped, was 40 and a half, went to 39.5.

They've had some injuries.

They traded Desmond Bain.

They lost Cole Anthony.

They lost Luke Kennard.

They lost Huff.

I know you're a Huff guy.

I like Huff.

Zach's already running out of steam.

We got like 20 teams left.

I'm going to

go.

I don't enthusiastic about Jay Huff mentions.

Ty Jerome.

They added him.

Yeah.

KCP.

Yep.

Lando.

Cedric Howard.

Fernow's guy.

They're plus 154 for the playoffs, plus 100 for the plan, which might be the bet of the year.

And they have some injuries coming out of the gate.

And

John Morant's already hurt.

Should be okay at some point, first couple weeks.

And

yeah.

Not just some injuries.

Like, it's not great when all your centers are hurt except for Jock Lando.

Like, Edie's out for a while.

And it's one of those where it's like, no, it should be back in December.

It's like, Willie, he's.

Brandon Clark had like another thing, another surgery.

Triple J is out for a bit.

Yeah, it's not, it's not great.

The number is like, this is on its, on the surface, a disrespectful number to a team that has won like 48 to 50, whatever games in the last few years.

And they just seem to win.

They just seem to punch above their weight in the regular season until, of course, they fell apart last year, could not beat any good teams down the stretch, plummeted down the standings, et cetera, et cetera.

I think this is a really good number by Vegas.

Hats off to Vegas because, like, 39 and a half, like, oh, that's, they can't even, they can be under 500 and go over this number.

I think that's appropriate given their injury situation.

This was a very tough one.

This was another one of my very toughest, toughest picks.

Pass.

Totally agree with Zach.

I'm going to play over because this team goes so goddamn hard at home.

They play their asses off for that Memphis crowd.

They have a chip on their shoulder perpetually.

I think, say his name properly, Tomas Ayasalo.

Tuamos Isolo.

See that?

Tuomas.

It's

tricky.

Isolo.

Isolo.

I think Coach Isolo.

See, they lost a defensive identity.

That was part of what contributed to them sucking ass down the stretch.

They couldn't stop anybody.

Their games, their overs in the last like

45 games, money in the bank.

I love playing Memphis overs down the stretch last year.

I do think that, you know, if they can weather the storm with these injuries and have any injury luck whatsoever, when Triple J, and Chris Vernon made this case, he makes it every single time we give him

a microphone.

When Triple J and John Morant play together, they win basketball games.

And so what's our over-under for number of games that those two guys play?

That sets the...

It's a fair question.

That's a big question.

That sets

the total number.

So we're asking for them to win half their games.

I think they're going to win half their games.

What would that number be?

Over-under on how many games both Morant and Jaron Jackson Jr.

play?

55 and a half?

I mean,

I wouldn't even 105.

No, but I'm saying together, they both play in the same game.

There's 82 games.

And how many of those guys are?

There's 82 do those guys fight?

40.

You think it's into 40?

55.

See, I think it's worth, I think, 60-ishes in play.

So I think this is why I'm taking the slight over here.

But you guys can't, you made the whole Anthony Davis case, and then now these two are.

You guys set the over-under at 55 and a half.

I thought it was low.

You're going lower than me.

Okay.

I just don't trust the health with those.

We're doing over-unders within the over-unders.

It's an over-under pod.

The Edie thing I thought was really bad.

Yeah.

Because I feel like that's a half the year.

And look, Bain was really good last year.

I mean, he's a top 40 to 50 player in the league, wherever you have him on your list.

And they traded him for a bunch of

futures.

KCP, I don't know what happened in Orlando last year where like literally no one could shoot, including the guy that they got to shoot.

KCP is like a solid fifth starter.

Like I feel good about his fit on the team.

I like Scotty Pippen Jr.

and Ty Jerome off the bench.

That's like a good stabilizing bench back court.

I'm going over with house here.

I think the number just got too low.

I'm going over.

Okay.

I went, I'm only going under because I felt like San Antonio, Dallas, and Memphis, you can't do all three overs.

And I already did my overs on San Antonio and Dallas.

I went under on Dallas.

I don't trust the hell stuff.

I thought

the last 25, 30 games of last year were so bad, maybe more of an indication of who they are.

Well, they fired the coach.

I get it.

There's also some,

like, if this becomes the year from hell, 25 games into the season,

what do you do about that if you're the Grizzlies?

And they gave.

There's some year from hell potential starting off with this many.

I mean, I could argue you already have the year from hell with all the injuries they've had.

It's two years ago.

Yeah.

That's true.

I didn't, the Jaron Jackson extension was pricey.

I know they had to do it.

He's sick.

He's sick.

He's a sick ballplayer when he plays.

I love him.

Can he give me seven rebounds a game?

That's not his game.

Yeah.

Well, who's going to rebound for this team this year?

Whenever those big guys, my boy John Conchar.

Yeah, I couldn't get there.

Santi.

I look forward to them starting out this season well and then Verno sending me long angry texts about they do.

I did.

I went deep enough into the Memphis weeds that I looked at their first 15 games.

It's a pretty soft first 15 games, which is another reason I went over.

I was like, they should be able to survive this being like seven and eight after this amount of time.

We're going to take a break and then we're going to talk about the most entertaining team in this conference from a conversation standpoint, the New Orleans Pelicans.

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A world where wings bring out the flavor of game day any day where buffalo chicken dip takes any party up one two three notches and where any slice of pizza instantly becomes the world's best slice of pizza visit franksredhot.com slash shake to learn more as you can tell from this over underspod i love betting nba futures one of my favorite things uh gives you a little stake not just in your team but you can pick five six seven other teams uh just kind of monitor their progress over the six-month season uh i like doing finals winners i like doing uh pairings for the finals i'm not allowed to bet on any of the awards because i have a vote but uh the playoff stuff is really fun play-in is kind of a fun one um season leaders you can bet on stuff like will wemby have a quadruple double this year you can bet on that on fan dil you can parlay stuff together i love betting on steph curry for most threes every season because he usually wins if he plays enough games anyway uh we're going to be talking about a bunch of these during the over-under podcast.

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Be ready.

New Orleans Pelicans

over 30 and a half.

They had no first round pick.

It's just gone.

They lost it in a crypto scandal.

Where did it go?

They lost it.

They invested in aspirations and lost their first-round pick.

What's the bushyhead guy who's in jail?

Sam Friedman.

Yeah.

He took it.

He took it.

They invested in a movie studio.

They went bankrupt.

It's just gone.

They're trying to buy trees.

They wanted some trees.

No matter what happens with this team, they won't be able to draft to play off their success,

which makes them an enticing over for 30 and a half because we've seen this every year.

There's two teams that they're not going to tank.

Why would we tank?

We have nothing to tank for.

Let's play hard.

Let's try to win.

They added Jordan Poole, House's guy, who was actually like sneaky good last year.

Kavan Looney, veteran.

Sadiq Bee's back.

They drafted Derek Queen, who's already hurt, and Jeremiah Ferris, who won't play until about 2030.

They lost McCollum, Malinik, and Bruce Brown.

Wow, that was a shock.

Very pointed shot.

We have a million years.

He's 18.

He's playing now.

He's going to play now.

Okay.

We'll see.

The question, Zach, is could they be this year's 2025 Hawks?

A team that's 2025.

Last year's Hawks?

This year's Hawks?

Last year's Hawks.

Last year's 24-25 Hawks.

What happened with them?

Why are they?

They didn't have their first-round pick, and they just gave a shit and tried.

And even when Jalen Johnson got hurt, they were like, we're still going to try.

We're not going to be wresting anybody.

We're still going to be going for it.

And

the addendum to that, did Skinny Zion suck you in at all?

No.

No.

I mean, it's better than the alternative, but I'm not sitting here like, oh, I saw some photos, pencil in 70 Zion games.

Like, I'm going to pencil in,

if I'm an optimist, I'm going to pencil in 56 Zion games.

Like, that's like, I'm not hoping for anything better than that.

We should have done a games played draft

to save it.

Hope people do that for Philly.

No, we could do that later.

I can't wait for Philly.

You guys do it.

Well, Herb Jones played 20 last year.

Murray played 31.

He's going to miss at least a big chunk of the season.

And Murray got hurt right before the season.

Ingram,

Ingram played 18.

Yeah, it was, it was, no, Skinny Zion did not suck me into like, oh, everything's great now.

They figured everything out.

But your question is the interesting one.

When I talk to people around the league,

you would think

the trade and all the flack they took for it would incentivize them to win, win, win, win, win at all costs.

And Willie Green, maybe coaching for his job, win, win, win at all costs.

We have to save ourselves from embarrassment as a front office, save our job as a coaching staff.

But also

the counter is

the front office is massively incentivized to show right away that Queen in particular is good, that Queen in Fears is good.

Do you have, do they, do they let, do they put their thumb on the scale with the coaches of like, you got to give these guys major rotation roles because we got to show they're good.

Because if they, the more they play, rookies tend to not help you win games.

So I think those, it's it's a fascinating sound.

Like, the conundrum has this is another situation where the front office and the coaching staff may be not on the same page.

Well, maybe that the front offices knew they didn't hire the coaching staff.

Great point, you know, great point.

I mean, Willie making it through last year was kind of a miracle.

I certainly didn't agree with that.

They won like nine games the year before that.

I get it.

So, Queen's hurt to start the year.

Yes.

If they're like a frisky eight and nine when he comes back or whatever the timetable is for his return, does he he get gifted 25 minutes a game because he's Derek Wien and we made this massive swing for him?

Or does Willie Green have the leeway to be like, hey, man, sorry, we're kind of rolling.

We'll spot you six, seven minutes at the end of the first half and see what goes from there, you know?

House, let me give you the rotation.

Missy, Zion, Murphy, Herb Jones, Poole.

Looney's going to start over Missy.

Okay.

Which I like.

Adult in the room.

Set screens, get rebounds, make the right reads.

I love that.

So Looney, Zion, Murphy, Herb Jones, and Poole.

It's a professional basketball team.

Sure is.

And the guys on the bench.

Missy, Alvarado, Hawkins, who I just continue to like.

I would have been trying to trade for him the last two years.

Queen when he comes back.

Murray, when he comes back, Fierce.

I mean,

I like Bay on the ball.

And Bay, if he's, I haven't seen him yet.

He's playing him.

He's playing okay in the back.

And Bay.

Like, that's a lot of basketball players' house.

I agree.

I'll just come out.

I'm an over on this team.

I think the way the incentives incentives run and,

you know, Willie Green, they won 49 games two years ago and 42 games the year before that.

And that's with all of the Zion.

You know, how many games is he playing?

Situation.

They have a lot of dudes and they have the capacity to be

a pretty intense defensive team.

And you're only asking them to win 31 games.

31 and 51 over.

And you're like this.

Right.

I I have a confession.

I have two confessions for you guys.

I kind of like the Jordan Poole trade the more I looked at it.

For Washington?

For both teams.

Okay.

I love it for Washington.

I still find it inexplicable for the Pelicans.

Look, I'm going to try to explain it.

Are they ever signing a free agent ever in a million years?

Okay.

Continue.

Poole has this year and then next year.

Yeah.

Poole, I think, for the team they have is probably a better fit than expiring C.J.

McCollum, who they're not going to trade for future pieces anyway, because they already lost their first-round pick.

And then Poole's an expiring a year from now.

I thought Poole was really confident last year.

And House and I talked about him a bunch of times.

We were like, this guy's like a good offensive player.

He can help a team down the stretch.

He can help a team that needs a boost scoring wise.

You just really have to tell that dude, here's the role.

Don't let him think that he's in charge of anything.

That there's no big three.

He's not on t-shirts with Zion.

Don't roll and say, oh, we're rolling the ball out, Jordan.

Go ahead and do your thing.

No, no, no.

They also got Bay

in that trade, who I was fine with.

Who we all liked for a while.

And then I was hoping he was going to be able to play.

I have another confession for you guys.

There's a couple Pelican starting fives I really like.

How about center Zion with Murphy, Jones, Hawkins, and Poole?

I want to see that for five minutes.

The opposing offense is also dying to see that for five minutes.

I just want to see it.

I didn't say I was going to win with it.

I just thought it would be entertaining.

And then Missy, Murphy, Jones, Hawkins, and point forward Zion, no guards.

When they do the point forward Zion thing, that'll be fun.

That's what makes me a little nervous is not, we know Zion's health is always going to be an issue.

They really need like more point Zion than they've ever needed before with any team because you just said, I don't want Jordan Poole in charge of the whole machine for too long.

Nope.

McCollum gone.

Murray gone for at least part of the season.

Alvarado is a good backup.

Fears is a rookie.

Like, they're going to need not only Zion to play, but to run more of the offense than he's ever run.

Sounds great.

I like when he does that.

Well, does his body like when he does that?

Like everything takes a toll, right?

He's taking things seriously now.

You're going playoffs.

I am going over 30.

I think they win between 31 and 35 games.

Me too.

Me too.

So

you win the bet.

I win the bet.

We are all over.

The number is too low.

Too much talent for this to be 30 and a half.

One Pelican's point quickly.

Remember when they had this war chest of picks?

And we were like, wow, the Pelicans, all these picks.

No war chest.

The war chest is empty.

They have their own first in 28, 32.

They have that 26 first is going to Atlanta.

And then they have a Bucs or New Orleans first.

The worst goes to Atlanta.

They get to keep the best one in 27.

The thing I have to remind us all the time from that queen trade that they traded their the best of those two picks to Atlanta is Milwaukee still gets the other one.

Like New Orleans just gets nothing.

Like Milwaukee gets the lesser of their own and the haul and the and the Pelicans picks.

Like it's it's

the most dumbfounding decision.

Atlanta might get into the lottery with two bites at the apple.

Like if the season goes by, Atlanta might have a major trade piece with that pick.

All right, we're going to the Pacific.

Oh, yeah.

Where the LA Clippers were the second highest favorites in this division.

And then LeBron

had some back issues, and the odds flipped.

And the Clippers jumped two spots or two wins to 49.5.

They're up to 49.5.

They sure are.

They're up to 49 and a half.

Ooh, Nelly.

They are plus 130 for the division now.

They're the favorites.

They are 16-1 for the title,

minus 600 for the playoffs.

Last year, they were 15-32.

They lost Powell, Coffey, and Eubanks and added John Collins, Bradley Beal, Brooke Lopez, and Chris Paul.

They also added a pretty annoying offseason scandal that still has not been resolved.

Zach, how hilarious would it be if the Clippers won the 2026 title?

I'm going to give you some of the things that would happen from that.

The Kawhi trade will have worked out.

James Harden would get off the hump.

Chris Paul would get a ring.

Bradley Beal would be a cult hero.

And Steve Ballmer would go from embattled Clippers owner Steve Ballmer to an absolutely crazed guy holding the trophy and screaming like a fucking maniac.

Those are all things on top of all the other things, like the Clippers have never made the finals before.

Anyway, I think it would be hilarious.

It's a double legacy button.

It's interesting.

It's two.

There's legacy buttons everywhere.

It's legacy buttons.

It's Harden's legacy.

Chris Paul's.

It's Kawhi's legacy.

It's Chris Paul getting the chip.

Kawaii titles on Kawhi.

Yeah, Kawhi's legacy is really going to be incredible.

Like two-time finals MVP

and just all the injury, missed time, mystery, controversy.

Arguably, he should have been the finals MVP for OKC last year.

Wow.

I would have voted for him.

I didn't get a vote.

It's so rude.

Imagine that.

Seven SGA votes and a vote for Kawhi Leonard.

What about Paul George?

Doesn't even get any votes?

I guess he could have.

Anyway, 49 and a half for the deepest kind of veteranish

team in the league seemed low to me.

And I'm just a, I have to go over on this.

I do that knowing that Kawhi Leonard's on this team.

What do you have, Zach?

I mentioned how I went under on the Nuggets because I can't go over on everybody in the West.

I like all these teams, love their depth.

Harden, love him, hate him, look forward to his game seven shitburgers, whatever.

The dude is a regular season wins machine who plays all the time, which is, which is the best possible insurance for whatever happens with Kawhi.

Like, I can at least, I know I hand him the offense.

They have depth.

I was going to go over 48.5.

If I'm going over 48 and a half, I should go over 49 and a half.

I'm over.

I'm over.

The age really makes me nervous.

You seem really excited about it.

Like Bogdanovich is already a little banged up.

CP is ancient.

It is one of those on paper versus the actual, because if you go through, it's like, well, Chris Paul's over 40.

Brooke Lopez kind of looked like,

you know, on the on the last legs of being a productive rotation guy last year.

Zoo, Zoo plays every game and plays a tons of ton of minutes.

I mean, my third team all NBA pick last year.

Perfect spot for me.

Deserved it, too.

I also think they actually have a little bit of a home court advantage now, which is the opposite of where they've been forever.

There's like good energy at these games, they have a good aspiration dome.

A little bit of us, us, us against the world energy now.

Oh, especially now.

I mean, the league's trying to bring down the Clippers.

What do you have, House?

Uh, this team won 51 games in 2023-24, 50 games last year, and a total under 50.

Sign me the fuck up.

I will take the over.

Thank you, sir.

They all went over on the Clippers at 49 and a half.

That's not a small number, 49 and a half.

And the West.

This is with Ty Lu, with this group.

These are professional basketball players.

Who's the chump on this team?

Yeah,

the Collins piece, I really like because I always felt like when Kawhi wasn't in there, they'd always just felt like Batum was the only kind of tall wing with size that

they had.

He shot 40% from three last year, didn't he?

Yeah, and you taught me to trade Collins because he was too good for them.

He's become the most underrated player in the NBA.

I think John Collins is good.

I think he's going to be good for the Clippers.

He's good for the Clippers.

Like, I don't think he's, I don't know if he's going to start or come off the bench.

They've been a little cagey about that.

It seems like he's going to come off the bench.

They'll start Derrick Jones Jr.

because they want someone to guard the best wings on the other team and not have that someone be Kawhi, which I get.

But he needs to play a lot.

John Collins, I think he checks a lot of boxers for them.

He's

wildly underrated.

I have young, at least, or young in his prime.

At least on this team, he's like a baby.

I had the OKC Denver drop Clippers, and then I would add Houston.

I would add a 3A,

3B, 3C with Houston Clippers, Minnesota.

And I think Houston can't be in there anymore because of the Bambi thing.

So I would say Minnesota Clippers 3A, 3B for me.

I'm stunned.

I'm over on the Clippers.

I'm stunned by that.

Wow, they got so much talent.

It's a big number, and they're so.

They were really good in the playoffs.

Also, I got to hit the legacy button for Brad Beale.

This is a chance for Brad Beale.

They were really good in the playoffs.

I know the way that the way that the matchup-wise, I like the way that they matched up.

I understand that the players.

I thought they played Denver great.

They did in

You get no flowers for me.

They should have won in six.

Well, they didn't.

You get no flowers for me for that.

When you embarrass yourself in game seven.

Hot take.

I thought they were the third best team in the league last year.

I really did.

And yet, would you ever trust them in a game seven on the river?

I wouldn't trust them, but I think they can win 50 games.

We all make money that way.

We wait till them to get to game seven, then we make money.

Look, I took the over.

So I'm stunned.

No one went just aggressively like too old, scandal, under, boom.

No, I thought there was like a a bus sitting there for you to just like make fun of the Clippers for 10 minutes with the way they care about the environment through aspiration.

That's it.

All the trees.

All the trees.

Trees have been planted thanks to the Clippers.

Think about it.

Oh, you love the wall.

Do you like the wall?

The wall is good.

The wall is good.

We went over on the Clippers, all three of us.

Remember when the bomber flew the wall, the core, the inner circle of the wall, to Denver for game seven?

It's a sad flight home.

Yeah.

No, I think, look,

a lot would have to go wrong for this to go under.

I don't think that much has to go wrong.

But I'm saying, like, you'd have a 30-game Kawhi season.

Okay.

You would have to have Chris Paul and Lopez are just washed.

You would have to have Beal being 10 games in.

Like,

I signed here because I thought I'd be a bigger part of everything that's happening.

And it's, I guess, I'll have to get used to my new role.

I'm waiting for you to say something that's like wildly implausible.

All right.

You said over.

Zubots would have to not be as durable.

I don't know.

Zubots getting hurt fucks this up.

That for sure.

Undoubtedly.

I just think they have defense.

And pick and roll with Hardin was fucking awesome.

The thing they didn't totally have last year that I think they have this year is like different kinds of lineups depending on who they're playing.

But I felt like I just thought they played OKC so well last year.

It was the one team that I felt like it was like boxing could go toe-to-toe with OKC and really move around the ring with them.

All right, the Lakers dropped from 49.5 to 47.5.

They added DeAndre and Jake Loravia and

whatever version of Marcus Smart this is going to be.

They lost Finney Smith.

They lost Goodwin, who got kind of liked.

They're plus 220 for the division, 16-1 for the title, which is ludicrous.

And

I guess the question for me when LeBron comes back, can you actually be a contender

when you have to hide your three best guys on defense?

That's the part I can't wrap my head around with this team.

Their three best guys are all people you would attack if you're the other team on defense at this point.

LeBron can have those moments when he looks like Miami LeBron for two seconds, but for the most part, he was pretty dialed in for like a two-month stretch last year.

He's going to be a year older, and now he has some sort of hernated disc, whatever makes me nervous.

Um,

I uh I'll just spoil my pick right now.

I'm under for this.

I think I have them in like the 44 to 46 range.

This is the shocker.

The Lakers, the Lakers.

Exactly.

Because can't believe that people are still in the same place.

How dare both enthusiasm?

How dare both enthusiastic?

We came to your house together.

I went way over on them two years ago, and they, I think they might have,

we crushed.

The challenge for me, Zach Low, is there used to be a rule.

We used to have a rule that you just can't go under 46 or 47 games when one of the game's five best players are on a team right and so we're right on the cusp here with the 46 and a half i thought the same thing

46 and a half uh i'm sorry 47 and a half it's 47 and a half so luca

skinny luca

luca with an agenda this team is luca's team this is his season to make his mark the true welcome to los angeles because they went out so feebly in the playoffs And that wasn't, that's Luca can, you know, wipe that dirt off his shoulders.

This team is his team.

It's going to succeed or fail with him.

I am taking the under because I don't have a defensive identity for this team.

I can't come up with the defense for this team.

Yeah.

I go through the personnel.

I don't know.

Nobody jumps off the page.

And also,

I

can't overemphasize the respect for the LeBron.

I don't think sciatica is not like, oh, it's this thing that gets fixed.

Here's the fix for sciatica.

Nope, no, no, no, no.

Not when you're 41 years old.

This is going to be a persistent problem all season long.

If you want to do over-under for games played for LeBron James, and I'll set it, I'll set it at 30 and a half.

Wow.

I'll set it at 30 and a half for LeBron James.

Well, here's the thing.

The important thing is for him to play in the playoffs.

So you got to get there.

In the West, you got got to get there.

You can't have these conversations in the West for one of these teams.

Like, oh, we get to the playoffs.

That doesn't exist in the West.

But that's

playing exists.

Yeah, Luca by himself is 42 wins.

He better be.

What do you think the most regular season wins Luca Mavericks team ever got was?

Was low 50s, right?

52.

Yeah.

They had a couple under 40.

What was the year?

They made the finals 50 wins.

But they had the one year when they got lively.

That was the tank year.

So they went 38 and 44.

And how many of those games did he miss, though?

I don't think he missed as many as

he was playing most of that time.

All right.

Well, Lakers fans, I'll be on the island by myself.

I'm going over 47.5.

The line dropped to a point where I felt comfortable doing it.

I trust Luca.

I trust Reeves.

I think they have better depth this year.

I think LeBron will play more than what you just said, but who the hell knows?

I've never had Sciatica before.

It sounds awful.

50 wins last year.

Expected wins 45.

Won a lot of clutch games.

Got some

opponents shooting luck for three.

They also had some crazy schedule stuff where it felt like over and over again they were playing some team where their best guy wasn't playing or two guys were missing.

So yeah, I didn't feel like they were 50.

Well, and to lean into your Lakers

exceptionalism thing.

They will lead the league in free throw rate every year and never get called for any fouls.

So I feel like I'm starting every game ahead 5-0.

They certainly have the right head coach for that.

Great point.

I'm going over 40.

I don't feel like this feels like optimistic.

I don't think I wouldn't go 50 on this team, but I can see 49 or 48.

So I'm going to go barely, barely over.

So part of my case for if there was like real urgency with this season with them.

I might feel differently about it, but this feels like such a transition season.

That's so many ways.

The smart money is on the under because they have a little bit to trade now, but they have more to trade later.

And they have the cap room thing looming.

And they've been very clear

27 upside down.

Let me

save it.

Yes.

Hour and a half in.

We finally broke sack.

He's got real regret about a pick.

I'm sticking with it.

I'm not letting.

What's going on with the ownership group?

Like in the sense of drawing.

Oh, my God.

Bill Stevens has his hand up.

This is part of my thing.

I think this is a really tumultuous year for them.

You have the ownership group where a lot of stuff has not come out yet about what's going on with the kids.

And I can't wait to see who does that for the bus kids.

The bus kids, the sale, like there's a lot of acrimony all over the place.

I feel very comfortable saying that.

Second.

It was a four to two vote among the siblings.

That means two said no.

Second, you have LeBron,

who did all the stuff last summer.

I know.

We got him.

His head is in his hand.

With like, we'll be monitoring this.

We'll see if they want to be competitive.

And meanwhile, he has nowhere to go.

And he's never been in a situation before.

He's been on somebody else's team.

And now House made the point.

I had sciatica.

I had all kinds of back shit in 03 and 04.

I was working for Jimmy Kimmel's show.

We would have the writers meetings and I would just lie in the floor because I couldn't sit in a chair.

Like when it goes down to your knees and your feet, it's a whole other,

it does not just heal in two weeks.

Like it's, it's, and I don't care how much technology you have.

Yeah.

It's like every hit he takes, he's going to feel it.

And on top of it, he doesn't have a contract next year.

So you have that.

You have Rui isn't expiring.

You've Gabe Benson is expiring.

Max 8 isn't expiring.

I don't feel like they're going to use future assets to try to upgrade.

I think they want to just get to 27 and see what's going on with Giannis, see what's going on with whoever they are.

They did the most important part, which was the Luca extension.

They did that thing.

That was

Luca, just go nuts this year.

Score 33, 34, 35 a game.

Do your thing.

A year from now, we're going to go all in.

They gave JJ.

How about the suspicious JJ extension?

Guy was hired a year ago as the head coach.

He got an extension.

Why did he get an extension?

Because they were telling him, like, we don't care if we're a contender this year.

Did a good job.

I don't think they care if they're a contender this year.

You don't think Connect was the steal of the 2024 draft anymore?

I think most of the guys they have can't play defense.

And I would include Marcus Smart, who I think can guard bigger guys, but has no chance against point guards anymore.

Vanderbilt's going to have to guard everybody in the other team.

And we didn't mention

DeAndre Ayton.

This is the most fired up you've got in the entire team.

Because I just think they have so many variables.

Like, DeAndre Aton, two teams with DeAndre Atton have said, please take him.

Like, you can have him.

He's like a couch that people are just trying to get rid of.

So I see on paper.

It's just a suitcase and a couch.

Yeah.

I'm just going through furniture.

I just don't think they care about this year.

Are they over 500?

I think they're, Luca, they have to be between 42 and 45.

I think they're above 500.

I'm not being disrespectful.

I'm taking the over.

You guys are not talking me out of it.

I came in here with my convictions.

I'm sticking with my convictions.

That a boy.

Over.

I think 48 and 34 is really hard, especially if I don't know how many games LeBron's playing.

That's it.

47 and 35 because the sun is.

I set my

under, but I do think there's...

Possible year for you.

Because nobody believes in you.

Nobody believes in the 2025-26 Lakers.

Luca, nobody believes in Fit Luca.

There's got to be

one way or the other.

Fit Luca.

Fit Luca.

I love it.

Well, here's the other thing.

I always think about this, too.

What's like the best case scenario for their season?

Like 50 wins?

49 and 33?

There's a best case scenario where they can win 52, 53 games.

I mean, you're talking best case.

Best case means LeBron's healthier than we expect.

They get lucky in close games.

I'm ready for it.

I'd like to play.

So here's the thing.

I want to be clear.

I thought like

this was a, there could only be one

at 47 and a half, and you had to go over with one and under and the other and our next team the golden state warriors 47 and a half is the same number we just transitioned right to the warriors what's wrong with that they're the same division i understand i'm just i'm fired up now because you guys are

just the east coast

you have to decide

um golden state 47 and a half i don't think you could take over for golden state

and the lakers why you have to pick one you know who has two thumbs up

you know you know has two thumbs and took under for the denver nuggets for this exact reason this guy here.

So you don't get to tell me what I can do on your own.

That's fair enough.

Fair enough.

Fair enough.

God damn.

Plus 220 for the division golden state.

27 to 1 for the title.

Same odds as the Atlanta Hawks.

Minus 420 for the playoffs.

Plus 130 for the play-in house.

Now I'm fired up.

They lost Looney.

They added Al Horford, the most beloved Celtic teammate probably in the history of the franchise.

And they added Seth Curry.

They have a veteran, good karma, good personality, professional team, and Jonathan Kaminga.

Tell me who Jonathan Kaminga is on this team in whenever they decide to trade him.

Who's it going to be?

Because Jonathan Kaminga, I don't, there's no, they're not entering the playoffs in April of 2026 with Jonathan Kaminga.

I had that as one of my questions.

Where is he playing in February?

Because it won't be a gold state.

i earnestly asked that question because it will help me determine i this is i have a big question mark i don't know what to do with this team i i went through all i went through all the fake kaminga trades last week and i don't remember what they all were off the top of my head but it was actually kind of hard to find one that was realistic is marketing not realistic marketing's realistic for me

it would have to be it would have to be coming and everything else remember he's got that weird base year compensation thing where his salary counts differently for the warriors than it does for the team that gets him, which is tricky.

Doesn't that help with marketing?

Because marketing is

I feel like it never helps.

Well, so right now

they would be starting, I would guess, Draymond with Kaminga, Butler, Podzemski, and Curry,

Horford, Healed, Moody, Jackson Davis, GP2, and Post off the bench.

But they have contracts they can put together.

They have all their picks.

Except one, which they always owe

frisky.

Yeah, let's go, right?

That's the Jordan, but they can create a piece of that pick.

Is the best case scenario of a 2026 Warriors season top six in the West, just being one of the six teams?

Yeah, for sure.

Yes, this remember: 48 wins was the number to make the play-in in the West last year.

And

this team, to me,

looks like a 48-ish win-win team.

Now, you know, the number moved.

The market responded to the Lakers' injury,

to the LeBron's injury.

The Lakers have been docked, and the Warriors have been in the middle of the middle.

Nobody believes in the Los Angeles Lakers except for me.

My hands up.

I like it.

I don't, yeah, it's good.

Good.

Here's another case for Golden State, if you're going to go over.

They were just really good the last 30 games of the season.

Yep.

They're 22 and 8.

They were 8.8 plus net rating.

They had probably the second best defense in the league for that stretch.

This was all with Butler.

And I just think when you're that good for that long and you're bringing everybody back and you could be reasonably healthy,

the question and the issue with the over-unders with a team like this is just you got old guys.

I'm counting on Butler, Curry, and Draymond to play minutes.

They had to go 22 and 8 down the stretch to make the effing play-in.

Right.

They weren't going to make it.

Urgency.

Yeah, urgency.

Right.

But

their team changed in exactly the kinds of ways you would hope it would change by adding Jimmy Butler.

Like their turnover rate went way down.

Their free throw rate went way up.

Their forcing turnovers on defense went way up.

It was like they just injected all the stuff they didn't have that came in one guy who can play their cut and screen and move style of play without any tutorial.

Just walk in.

Awesome.

You go from having Curry to now Curry where there's less attention on him.

So you're getting a better Curry on top of all these other things.

And also just like we talked about with Denver, like when Curry goes to the bench, we actually have a reliable thing.

This was one of the easiest overs on the board for me.

I'll press my lock button for the first time.

This is a lot over.

This is amazing.

Yeah.

So I worry about their playoff, like, like

getting through 82 games plus a grind of a couple playoff series because they're so old.

But I just think the IQ and talent on this team is way over 47.

The chemistry is going to be awesome.

And I do.

My eyes pop.

My eyes pop when all the projection systems, like Pelton, Hollinger, are like spitting out huge numbers for this team.

If they're all in agreement, I'm like, okay, the Vegas is missing something.

Horford, too.

Because part of the problem with them, just the way the league has changed, with just being able to put shooters around Steph to give him more space, right?

And you're just flipping Looney for Horford is so massive for him.

If Horford has anything left, we can just park him at the top in that post roll.

They're playing post a bunch, who I don't even think, I'll do respect to to him, is not somebody you really want to rely on for 25 minutes a game.

But now you have Horford, who then can play defense too.

And I think they're going to be really good defensively.

And I just like the team.

I have a question for you guys.

And then, well, let me ask.

We haven't made a pick yet.

I wanted to start because I have a question.

I'd like to ask the question first.

How many games do you think that Draymond, Steph, and Jimmy Butler will play together?

There's 82 games.

How many of those 82 games will those three guys be having?

Is it also fair to say this will be our last happy Jimmy Butler season before

he'll then be have a year left?

So, this next summer will be when he starts up with the,

I don't know what's happened with my contract.

Would you say that to his face?

Huh?

I probably would actually.

You would like it if you did.

Yeah.

It's like, hey, Jimmy, can you be happy for a year?

Maybe.

Yeah, I've two.

So you're my question is how many?

Because

that is important, I think.

Or is it not?

But doesn't matter.

I would say 60 plus for me.

No, I don't think so.

I think it's more than that.

I was going to say 45 or 50 that all three of them play together?

55, maybe.

Are you talking about injury or they're going to like staggering?

Whatever it is,

injury and like they're just

like they're all project to be like 65 game players.

So you just start doing the math of how much do those overlap.

So if you have two of those three guys for good stretches of the season, we're saying that it doesn't matter.

I feel good.

So I feel good.

On the one side with Curry, Kerr has been.

I don't, Steph looked a little gamey tonight.

I'm resting him in Phoenix tomorrow.

Like, he'll just, he'll always do that.

Yes.

On the other side, they really hated being in the play-in last year and just all the miles you have to put on yourselves in games like that.

I don't think they want any part of it.

I think they want to be in the top six, which makes me the question for me, though, Zach, they'd have to jump OKC not happening, Denver not happening,

Minnesota probably not happening.

The Clippers, I'm going to say not happening.

Houston, Lakers, San Antonio.

So they have to jump two of those to be in the top six, basically.

I mean, that's where it gets hard.

They're going to have to be in the 49 range.

To make it easier.

They're not jumping.

They don't have to jump San Antonio.

They are ahead of San Antonio last year and coming into this year.

They just made the case earlier that Wemby's has a chance to be like.

You guys made that case, not me.

But this is why I said when Van Vliet got injured yeah like

there's it's not hard to come seventh in the west like not a lot has to go wrong for your team for you to suddenly be in the play-in tournament and houston fans like i'm not saying they will i think they're going to be a little better than that but like

you can't pencil any of these teams below oklahoma city and denver into the third seed like just like no-brainer if you win 47 games you're you're in the play-in You're looking like you're like fighting to make the play-in.

I am going to take the over.

I want to be on the record with this team.

I I think they're going to win 48.

You just fucking copycatted us.

That was boring.

We talked it through.

Ridiculous.

I like you should have come in with the pick.

I like Melton.

He was cheating.

Moody.

He's a cheater.

What are you talking about?

You guys couldn't talk me out of the Lakers over.

I look forward to being wrong on that one, but I'm taking it.

Sticking with it.

You mentioned the Houston play-in possibilities.

Yeah, what are the odds?

Plus 330 on Fanduel.

Kind of intriguing.

Before the season.

Because there's going to be a play-in team in the West that we did not think was going to be in the play.

Older LA, LA, Golden State teams is going to just run into a pile of bad injury luck and just like something is going to go wrong for one of these teams.

It's literally the Lakers.

Lakers plus 155.

Nobody believes in the Lakers.

Play-in.

Two more.

Contractually, we have to do these last two teams.

Contractually, I'm just getting fired up now.

The Sacramento Kings, their over-under is 35.5.

They are plus 360 for the playoffs.

They

2-1 for the play-in.

They lost LaRavia and and Valent Shunas.

They added Schroeder.

They added the artists formerly known as Darius Arich

and Drew Eubanks.

And they lost Keegan Murray for at least the first 10 to 12 games of the season.

And

they also had some weird off-season stuff with Vivek's daughter being kind of peripherally involved in this.

Chance Comanche story, which was pretty crazy.

In general, I mean, just saying the Kings had a weird anything is kind of, I don't know if I needed to say that.

Do they get enough credit for being reprehensibly incompetent, Zach?

Oh, yeah.

Okay.

You think they get enough?

Yeah.

I just want to make sure.

Yeah, no, there's because they have about to get more.

So we can, we can keep going.

They have one playoff series appearance since 06.

They haven't won a playoff series since 04.

They haven't made the finals ever.

And they just seem to keep popping up whenever weird shit happens with the

NBA.

I feel bad for the Kings fans because we got a taste of how cool it was.

Once upon a time, two years ago, it feels like 20 would light the beam.

And then they just decided to reassemble the 2023 Chicago Bulls with Sabonis.

And that's where we are now.

I would like to congratulate Vegas again.

I don't know how to do this.

I don't know.

I'm not a gambling guy.

Team in the last three years has won 48, 46, and 40 games.

And Vegas is like, yeah, how about 35 and a half?

How about you eat that crappy number of Sacramento Kings?

And I could not be more aggressively under, even on that low number.

Give me all the Kings understock.

I hate this team.

I hate this roster.

I hate the Keegan Murray's already injured.

I hate the vibes.

I hate everything.

I think this is going to be a year from hell for the Kings.

I'm taking under, under.

You didn't even mention Coach Doug Christie.

Under.

Could not be like, it's a low number, and I just could not be more like this.

This is the year from hell.

Who's playing defense on this team?

Why are DeMar DeRosen and Zach Levine on the same team anymore?

Like, I hate everything about the team.

Dennis Schroeder, I don't hate.

I don't hate everything.

There are parts I don't mind.

I hate the construction of the team.

I hate the, I just hate it.

I'm going under.

House, are there?

So we'll say Utah.

Is there another West team you like less than the Kings?

No.

No, no, no.

This team, it is the epitome of shit alchemy, taking gold and spinning it into a giant pile of shit.

This team had Tyrese Halliburton on it.

This team had D'Aaron Fox on it.

This team had a beam.

I wanted to, I liked lighting the effing beam.

That was an amazing season.

I enjoyed that season.

I'm sorry.

I got a lot.

Sorry.

What happened?

No, I'm just like, who's the backup power forward on this team?

Doug McDermott?

Look at the depth on this team.

Neek Clifford's got to step in and play like 30 minutes a game.

Like Sarich is is gonna play why what is that

hey you didn't play at all for the nuggets we'll we'll take you also they try to trade malik monk

monk malik monk i did it half our first one of the season my first one love monk we haven't even got to many of the yugoslavium they try to trade him all summer i kind of like him there's still time to do it i would take

this team stinks They try to trade Carter for Camingo.

The whole thing stinks like the garbage bags on the sidewalk that have been out two days too long.

It just stinks.

I could not be more happy to take an under on a low number on a team that has been around 500 or over for three straight years.

I wrote, here are some of my notes.

This is the single dumbest NBA roster.

They have no salary cap space.

They have no young studs.

They have no under-25 player.

You were like, this guy, they have no chance.

There's no point for the team.

There's no five-man.

There's no five-man rotation you can put together with the players they have that could win two games in a playoff series if they played all 48 minutes without a bench i like keon ellis um

they messed that one up too this is just uh i hate it i mean thank god for these guys that joe dumars came back to new orleans and was able to do his thing because this is uh the height of ineptness and some of the east teams have gotten more competent Some of the ones that we've had from an inept standpoint, like Charlotte, Detroit, you know, the Wizards, There was like some really dumb, stupid, and now we just have the Nets.

And we have the Nets and the Kings and the Pelicans as our big three.

I'm a hard under as well, House, and I assume you are too.

Yes.

Okay, three unders.

I think this is a this is the Hindenburg of NBA teams this year.

Also, like, might be the number one fan base

really mad at the team by like December.

Trying to think of a fan base that would be madder at the beach.

Chicago's hard to beat.

Oh, yeah.

Wow.

Wait till we get to them.

No, but Chicago's like just trapped in a loveless marriage.

Hilarious.

You're a Chicago Bulls fan.

You have no hope every year.

Zach, I think you, this was on your podcast, maybe with Nakaias yesterday.

This is a team whose head coach went from Sacramento to a team that I think is going to be in the NBA Finals.

Didn't take a break.

I think that was on your pod.

I think I heard that on your podcast.

But yeah.

My eyebrow went from

this

goddamn garbage dump to becoming the head coach of a team that

will be my pick for the NBA Finals.

So why did they trade DeAren Fox?

Why did they have to do it when they did it?

What was the point of that?

Because he asked for it.

He asked.

Okay.

We'll talk about it after the season, De'Aaron.

That's what the max money was for.

Let's try to make it through this year.

We'll talk this summer.

Instead, they made this crappy trade that nobody liked.

Well,

just when you think it can't get worse, here's the Phoenix Suns.

Over under 31 and a half.

It's a low number.

New coach, Jordan.

Yeah, like him.

They lost Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal, among other players.

They lost half their team.

They added Dylan Brooks and Jalen Green.

They have centers now,

Mark Williams and Maliak.

Malowatch.

Malowatch.

Did I say it right?

Malowatch.

Zach gave me a thumbs up.

They have to swap 2026 first with Washton, but might not have to, because Washton's also going to be bad.

Plus $680 for the playoffs, plus $200 for the play-in.

And they're paying Devin Booker.

My math might be off, but I think he makes $143 million this year, somewhere in there.

$133, $143.

Their starting lineup is looks like Mark Williams, Royce O'Neill,

Dylan Brooks, Devin Booker, and Jalen Green.

House, how many minutes a league pass are you going to watch of this team?

Over under 50?

Oh, a lot.

Why?

This team intrigues me.

Why?

Because I think that they have something to prove.

I'm actually interested in this team.

I think that this is a curious experiment.

You know, Ishpia and

SM is an experiment?

Well, that

would overall.

Making a snow film is an experiment.

No, no, no.

We don't go that dark.

I'm not that mean.

I'm not.

Anyway.

What do you mean I mean?

Yeah.

No, I actually think that this team with Booker is incented to try.

Like it was so dead there last year.

The breathing the new life into the thing, I'm actually kind of intrigued.

Counter.

They could just suck and keep either their pick or Washton's pick and have a top five pick.

They don't have to do anything.

That's going to happen.

Right?

Probably might happen.

They're probably the third worst team in the West, SAC, second or third.

I don't think, I don't think they keep.

I think their pick swap is so complicated.

I think Memphis has leapt them in pick swap rights in this morass of picks.

I'm not sure how their pick swap works.

They might, they don't control the game.

I did so much research for this pod.

It's impossible.

It's a giant paragraph right here, but I just remember talking to people about how Memphis is like almost more or less guaranteed a lottery pick between Washington's pick and Phoenix's pick.

In any case,

I don't care either way.

I'm going under anyway.

It doesn't matter to me.

I do think there's, I'm kind of with you where like there's some, they got a lot of, and I mean this in a good way, like a lot of tweener forwards on the team that I'm interested in sort of like Brooks and O'Neill and Fleming, the kid they just drafted and Igidoro and Dunn, they trend a little big, which is interesting because they can be switchy and whatever.

It's the ball handling behind Booker that makes me really, really nervous if he misses any amount of time.

It's point Jalen Green or it's like calling in Colin Gillespie for like super duper emergency 25 minute of game duty that makes me very nervous.

The youth of the centers makes me very nervous.

Mark Williams missing half of every season makes me nervous.

Mark Williams being frantically traded by his team, even though he's 23 years old there's some dylan brooks like flip you for a future pick potential uh to

um which i think he's like a sneaky narrowing trade candidate me too i i think i'm with you that there's stuff to like not hate here but and the number is very low but i'm still going under because in this conference i just have too many questions about the roster so i think you're right zach on that sons

it's it's super complicated but it looks like charlotte's involved memphis is involved involved i think memphis they did a use of nurkic trade where they kind of dumped some sort of protection with something with 26.

were you going over either way we're all no i wasn't going over no i'm correct

i am going over yeah i am i am because 32 and 50 is a terrible record and you know you they're they're still

absolutely absurd it's fine they won 33 games last year or 36 games last year yeah with with a roster where they hated everybody hated each other and the coach.

I mean, Coach Bud Light.

Can we talk about Jalen Green and

Devin Booker sharing a backcourt together?

I think it'll be fine.

Fine in what context?

Ask Jordan Knott.

This is a little bit of a good thing.

Jordan Knott's gonna be a good coach.

I agree.

But Jordan Knott, but this is the place where coaches go to die.

And, like, well, you know, I mean, I all the has-been retread coaches.

This is a new, young,

you know,

terrible pick.

Look, literally.

I love it.

I actually love it.

Monty Williams made his mark with this.

He went on to the

ignominy that he deserved.

But Monty Williams, you know, there's a playbook for ignominy?

That's a word.

You mean ignominy?

Say it however you want.

How about the correct way?

Pull it up on Google, on the Google machine.

So you're going over forty two runs.

That's a shit team with a shit record.

I think they are either the second or worst, third,

second or third worst West team.

Lock it down.

I mean, that's kind of fine.

I love that you're going.

I love that you're going over it.

I am going over there.

Because there's more talent here than people think.

I just don't think it's enough.

This guy's guy who came from the MVP season in Europe or like he played Hayes Davis.

Yeah, Hayes Davis.

Another guy.

So Phoenix made the 2021 finals, and then they went 64 and 18 in 2022.

Yep.

Heading into that playoffs.

They were were a 64-win team.

And Luca broke them.

Luca broke them.

Luca broke them.

KD trade, Beal trade.

They lost all their picks and swaps plus Bridges, Cam Johnson.

They lost Aten.

They went from 45, 49, 37 wins.

They paid the highest luxury tax for three years.

The Aiten thing, like the Nurkit, they also traded Kamara in that trade.

Like it's like a sneaky disaster trade within a trade.

It's one of the great, terrible three-year runs in the history of the league by a front office ownership,

which would be that would be a fun podcast for a rainy day.

Just the all-time worst anti-heaters by a team.

Just a three-year

shit fest.

How many different Kings stretches could we put?

It'd be tough.

You'd have to pick Eras.

They couldn't overlap the eras.

You couldn't take 2012 to 14 if 14 to 16 was in there.

All right.

We're going to go backwards and go through all of our picks.

Okay.

And you guys tell me what the locks are.

Oklahoma City, 62.5.

We all went over.

Lock.

I'm locking a 62 and a half over.

I'm locking it.

It's one of my.

How many locks do I require to lock up?

You can honestly do as many as you want, up to 10.

I want to

state.

I don't want that many locks.

Six to eight.

I am on the lock.

Six.

Double lock for OKC.

I'm not locking it.

I like the over.

You guys talk me into it.

Denver Nuggets, 53.5.

House and I I went over.

Zach went under.

I am a lock on Denver over 53.5.

Okay.

Very exciting.

Minnesota Timberwolves.

All three of us are over at 49.5.

Lock it.

Okay.

I'm joining Zach.

I need more locks.

I'm joining Zach on the lock for the Minnesota Timberwolves.

I'm going to stay away.

Portland, 34.5.

Under, under, under for all three of us.

Yep.

Utah, 19.5,

under, under, under for all three of us.

I can't believe we all went under on 19 and a half.

Congratulations to the Utah Jez.

Houston Rockets, 52 and a half,

three unders for us.

It's borderline lock.

Lock it for us.

Oh, you're locking the under.

Wow.

I want to lock it, but I really want to root for the Rockets to be good because I think we need one more really good basketball team.

But that seems way too high.

I'm going to stay away.

San Antonio, 43.5.

Over for me, over for Zach, under for house.

I'm locking this down.

43.5, over for me.

I'm not joining you.

Dallas Mavericks, 40.5.

Over for me, under for Zach,

over for house.

It's a lock for me.

You said that.

You looked right into my eyes.

But I'm locking it.

Memphis, 39.5.

Under for me, under for Zach, over for house.

I thought I went over on Memphis.

I went over on Memphis.

I'll switch you to over.

I didn't even remember you going under.

Under.

New Orleans, 30.5.

Three overs.

Obviously, a franchise you can trust to that level.

What's the go wrong?

Clippers,

three overs.

Unbelievable.

Someone should just go under on principle.

Lakers,

under 47.5 for me and for Joe House, over for Zach Williams.

You hear that, Lakers, fans?

Lakers.

Right into the camera.

He says it.

Lakers.

He says it right into the camera.

Golden State Warriors, 47.5, three overs.

Lock.

I already locked it.

I pre-locked it.

Yeah, you did lock it.

I pre-locked it.

I'm not going to lock it because of the old guys, but I am going to lock this next one.

Sacramento, 35.5.

It is

3 o'clock.

That's the legacy beat.

No, no, no, no.

I'm not locking it.

No, you're not locking it.

No, I mean, they're so weird.

It's a disaster.

I have like four different locks.

I have a combination lock.

I have a bike lock.

I have a chain lock.

Tire lock.

Every possible lock.

Vagina lock.

300.

For Doug Christie.

That's right.

Yeah.

Yeah.

I forgot about that story.

Phoenix, 31 and a half.

We all under for me.

Under for Zach, over for house.

Lock Lock it up.

I only have two locks, so I'd like to lock the Clippers as well.

I'm applying a lock

for 100.

49 and a half.

It's not retroactive.

We're talking about it now.

I have Denver, Minnesota, and the Clippers as lock overs.

You know what?

Since we're going backwards on locks, I'm going to lock in Denver over 53 and a half

as well with my guy, Nikola Jokic.

My favorite non-seller.

Are you on Jokic Island?

I'm Jokic Continent.

That's it for part one of the NBA Over-unders.

Part two will be the East.

It's going up about 12, 15 hours after you listen or watch to this one, which you can hopefully watch on Spotify or wherever you get your pods.

Thanks to Chris.

Thanks to Eduardo.

Thanks to Ronic as well.

And we will see you for part two.

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