NBA Over/Unders, Part 2: The East With Zach Lowe and Joe House

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Yeah.

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We did part one, NBA Overunders.

We did the West, which,

you know, is a more traditional, old school, a lot of good arguments.

Now we're about to enter the East, which is just a freaking abyss.

And I can't wait, but we're going to take a break.

We're going to bring in our friends from Pearl Jam and then the East.

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Well, we have many traditions here with the over-unders pod.

One of which is we usually do the east second because uh house's division with the Washington Wizards is usually the last division.

They're usually the last pick.

It's like a little cherry in the Sunday, House.

It's very nice.

You'll leave your team last.

We get to end with Washington.

I always leave feeling good.

No matter what the pick is, I leave feeling good about it.

We're going to start with the Central, where the Cleveland Cavaliers are at an over-under of 56 and a half.

They won 64 games last year.

They lost Ty Jerome.

They lost Isaac Ocoro.

They gained Lonzo Ball and Larry Nance and Thomas Bryant.

And they are our first title-related second apron test case, Zach Lowe.

It's a true contender with zero outs.

This is their roster.

They can't really make trades.

They can't improve it.

They can't even get buyout, guys.

This is who they are.

Even if Charlotte's like, hey, we'd love to give you LaMello ball and three first-round picks for Darius Garland.

The Cavs would have to say, we can't.

We are trapped under a giant second apron.

Is this a good thing or a bad thing when a contender has a disappointed playoff loss and then can't make any moves and actually has to run it back?

I don't think it's either good or bad.

For this team, I think it's fine.

They're all young.

They all fit well together.

There's a proof of concept that everyone got hurt, or Darius Garland and other people got hurt hurt in the playoffs.

Last year, Mobley was a little banged up when they lost to Indiana.

I think it's good.

I think it's fine for this team.

You know, core sticking together is good.

I'm okay with it.

Okay.

How about you, House?

Yeah, I totally agree.

This

is a team that showed us it still has room to grow.

And, you know, the big what if is what if Garland was healthy?

Right.

What if Mobley plays game one?

What if Garland was healthy?

Hunter was banged up.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Because I was thinking we did Phoenix for the West in part one, and we were talking about how badly that went to shit over the span of three years, right?

And it all starts because Luca beats them in that playoff series, and it just

just sends them on tilt.

And then Ishbia comes in, now all of a sudden, the KD trade happens, and they just start blowing things up.

I think in the old NBA, I think, I wonder if Cleveland would have would have done a let's blow it up something.

You know what I mean?

Like, would Garland have been dangled?

Would they have said, ah, maybe we can get away with Evan Mobley and maybe shop Jared Allen for two guys?

But in this new NBA, this is where they're going to be.

What would an Evan Mobley MVP season look like for you, Zach?

How many points did he average last year?

Let me look at that.

He was 21, something like that.

He was like

19 and 9, something like that.

So 24, there has to be a big jump in scoring.

Three-point shooting has to get better.

Although he was 37% last year, low volume.

And just a little bit more.

Oh, he really feels not, he really feels more like a 1A than a third option behind Garland and Mitchell in terms of creating, initiating possessions.

I had the minutes per game has to go up because they had low minutes for everybody last year, so maybe like 34, 35 minutes a game.

24 and 12, realistic?

12 is tough.

12 is tough from nine and a half to 12 with a center that eats a lot of rebounds.

That's tough.

Top three defensive player of the year rankings somewhere in there.

You got it there.

One.

So check it.

50, 40, 80 percentages.

It's 24.

I think the Cavs would have to have like 65 wins.

I don't think it's going to happen.

House, what do you got?

In terms of what I think about this team,

I think they're capable of running it back.

They just set such a high bar last year, and it really was.

I wonder how much of it was attributable to just that, that the arrival of Kenny Atkinson and everything to the guys on the floor starting to to make sense.

Yeah, you could see how the combination of Atkinson plus those guys are like, Yes, okay, this is.

And this, I'm not, this isn't shade of J.B.

Bickerstaff.

He got the most out of the crew with what he brought to the table.

Atkinson, different guy, different kind of approach.

And I think it he elevated Mobley.

The guy who gets credit for elevating Mobley is Atkinson, in my humble opinion.

And there is still that room to

grow.

This is a huge drop-off in win total that I don't really

grasp, especially in view of what we've all observed in the East.

Right.

So the attrition, no Tatum, no Halburton.

And I'm skeptical about some of the teams that we say, oh, well, there's big leaps coming and wins for a couple of teams that we'll get to.

So I don't think I'm going to...

go, you know, so am I supposed to say my pick?

Yeah, go.

Yeah, yeah, it's an over for me because 57 wins is perfectly reasonable for this team.

I am a little surprised to be going under.

It's a high number, 56 and a half.

I realized they won 64 last year.

They were 20 and 9 in close games in the last three minutes, score within three points.

I don't know if they could duplicate that.

I'm just a little nervous that Garland's already hurt to start the season.

Struce is already hurt to start the season.

That combined with

maybe someone else gets hurt along the way slash, we're not going to go pedal to the medal all the way like we did last year when we're like good vibes.

We're the first team together.

Let's see what we can do.

I could just see a little ease off the gas and just have a nice normal 55-54 win season.

So, I, again, I got to go under on some people on the high, and I'm going to go a little under on the Cats.

It's fine.

It's weird to go under 56 and a half on a 64-win team.

So,

I don't know.

The injuries to start the season make me a little nervous.

Well, and then you also have the Lonzo piece too.

Where last year you had the Ty Jerome certainly this year, you have Lonzo, who, you know, if he's playing, it's great.

I thought about the injury stuff too, and I think that's why the number is priced where it is because I'm with us.

It's a good thing.

The first time I looked at it, I'm like, whoa, that's low.

They won 64 last year.

There's a very good chance this is a very stupid under by me, especially with the Mobile Leap potential as like the best possible reason to go over, even if you're concerned about the injuries.

I'm going over for two reasons.

One is the Mobile Leap possibility, which I think at age 24, it's right around now.

I think they treated the regular.

I know they won a bunch of games in the the regular season last year, but the minutes number was low.

And I remember some of the dialogue when they got to the playoffs was like, these guys kind of weren't ready for the ramp up because they had been kind of babied throughout the regular season.

And did we do something wrong?

Should we have handled the regular season a little more aggressively than we did versus like trying to get these guys pacing them, getting ready.

And then all of a sudden they're taking haymakers in the playoffs.

Like, ah, what's this?

So I wonder if they're going to be more aggressive in the regular season.

So that swung it for me.

Thought maybe that's like two, three extra wins where they're just taking it a little more seriously that they have to keep laying the SmackDown.

Also, the East is just worse.

I mean, there's just multiple games now, especially like in the first half of the season where you're playing the Celtics without Tatum, right?

There's two games that they should probably be favorite.

I think they're going to be favored in a lot of games.

You know what?

I'm changing my pick.

I'm going over.

Wow.

I'm changing it.

I'm doing

my first midstream.

He did it already.

I did.

I'm doing my first midst.

Mine was open.

I'm doing my first

mid-stream change.

I'm going over 56.

It's just too many.

There's too many wins to grab against 34-win mediocrities across the conference.

I'm going over on Cleveland.

Sorry, Cats.

You coward.

I didn't feel great about it for the beginning.

I'm going over.

The East is lousy.

Over is the right move.

Detroit is over 46.5.

They were 44 and 38 last year.

They added Karis Lavert, Duncan Robinson,

Jeff Green,

still in the Javante Green.

Yeah, definitely not Jeff Green.

I wrote down Green, they had it agreed.

You said Jeff Green.

Javante Green?

Javante Green.

AJ, some

Gerald Green?

No, A.J.

Green's on.

Not Draymond Green.

A.C.

Green.

They lost Tim Hardaway.

They lost Schroeder.

They lost Fentechio.

And almost definitely lost Malik Beasley.

There's still a chance maybe he comes back on a short contract because they have some rights with that.

This is a team that's being thrown into a lot of

taking a leap conversations.

And I'll just start.

I'll start us off.

Normally, I like to throw it, but I don't really see it with Detroit.

I thought

the 44 and 38 last year was a little deceiving because they played hard every game and that, you know, there was some schedule stuff with it.

And Cade was really good and it was exciting to watch.

But I think they're worse than they they were last year.

I'm not a huge Lavert guy, Robinson, Miami, quit on 14 times over the last five years, and I thought their vets like really mattered to them with some of those games.

They look good in that Knicks series.

I like Cade, like Dern, obviously.

Ivy's coming back, which would be like the other factor you would say.

The only way I see it is if there's some giant Osir Thompson leap that I think people really seem to want to happen.

But 47 felt rich to me, and I'm kind of leaning toward under.

Where'd you stand, Zach?

First of all, Asar Thompson is my pick for most improved player.

So I'm excited about that.

That would help.

This is fun.

And he missed, he actually played more than I thought last year.

He only missed 23 games, I think, but he didn't play a ton of minutes.

Other than Ivy and him, they were very, very healthy last year.

And other than Ivy, they had Schroeder for a lot of the year to sort of make up for that.

Who was pretty important for them in those last two months?

Like, yeah.

playoffs.

I'm

bullish on Detroit's like medium-term future.

I think last year was pretty real.

I think the playoff toughness was pretty real.

I ended up going under

just because I can see this being one of those like, well, development's not always linear in terms of win total.

Sometimes you have like a little step back or a little plateau along the way on your rise up to something.

I think we're a year away from the rise and ironing out the offensive kinks, I think, is going to be the story of the season.

durin a sar non they don't have a lot of three-point shooting they were a very high turnover team i don't know how much of that they can really fix so i can see another year just like last year so i i'm going on during the choice yeah somewhere in the mid-40s and then bringing back ivy

who i think is going to be extension eligible in a year He's

now.

He and Durin are extension eligible now.

And it's Cade's team.

You got to slat him in.

What do you see, House?

The single biggest factor for me is the Beasley thing.

He was unbelievable from three last year, and that was really important to them.

He was one of the three best three-point shooters in the entire NBA, Malik Beasley.

Yeah.

And it was very quiet over the years.

And one of the worst gamblers.

No, we don't know.

Not proven.

Nothing proven.

Yes.

This is just allegations.

Nothing proven.

Just allegations.

And I think that that's not like, oh, we just.

acquired Duncan Robinson and we fixed it and some of that offensive stuff.

Karis Levert will fill in some of those blanks.

I like this team to win 46 games.

I like this team to win more than they want to play.

So you have half under.

And it's an under, right?

Yeah, because 46 is not a bad record in the East, and it's still an under.

So it's an under.

You guys already said it's like, tell me how Jaden Ivey's going to play.

Like, tell me what his impact will be.

I think Jayden Ivey will be fine.

Yeah.

Shot catch and shoot throughs really well.

I like Lavert and Robinson better than you guys.

I don't think they've lost as much from the Beasley volume.

Duncan Robinson won't be able to duplicate, but like he's a little bit of a better passer, like two-man game with Durin, I could see.

Okay.

Because Lavert had Cleveland

winning with him, being like, I think we can do better.

That makes me nervous.

I thought he was very ball stoppy.

Wild card here, as you have mentioned in the West part, is

do they make some sort of massive move in the middle of the season to win now?

And that could vault them over to the over.

But I'm not.

i i think actually just we'll see what they do but i'm i'm i don't feel great but i'm going a little under so just a tiny bit slight unders for all of us and the marketing trade could really fuck it up yeah sure if they just come in in february come in hot this is the sequel to all of us being over on the clippers i'm surprised all of us are under on the pistons

i they feel like every year there's a team and weirdly it was orlando last year

who had the year from hell, but there's always a team that people just vault to the next level, even though we haven't really seen it.

And a lot of it is,

you kind of have to look at the circumstance from the previous season.

And I just thought 44 and 38.

To me, they were a 500 team that played hard and were fun to watch.

We'll see.

I also like this next team a lot more.

Just spoiler alert, the Milwaukee Bucks, over under 42 and a half.

They are 20 to 1 to win the conference, which is the eighth best odds in the East, even though they have the best player in the conference in Giannis.

Minus 215 for the playoffs.

They were 48 and 34 last year.

They turned Lopez into Miles Turner.

They turned Dame Loward into Cole Anthony.

And they turned Conaton into Coffey and Harris.

And they're deep.

And they're a sneaky, great shooting team, Zach.

Great.

Didn't take a lot, but they were the number one three-point shooting team by percentage.

38.5 last year.

They had Prince, Green, Porter, Trenton Rollins, all over 40%.

Turner was at 39.6%.

Porter's 37.

Dame was actually lower than all those numbers.

And

they have shooting and they have Giannis.

And

this number is dumbfounding to me because I don't think they're trading Giannis this season.

And I just don't see a world where this isn't like a 46-win team.

Well, look, I mean,

what do they win last year?

48?

Yeah.

Yeah.

And they added...

Thanassis and Alex to 10 to Kumpo.

And no-brainer.

And Russell Westbrook.

Talk about a freak off.

This is

all the freaks are in Milwaukee.

It's a fucking literal freak off.

It's a G-rated freak off.

It's the real freak off right here in Milwaukee Town.

Now,

I think this team actually makes more sense than last year's team.

I think that like the version of this team, now I got hammered.

I want to like right hand up.

I got smashed at the outset of the playoffs because this version of Milwaukee with all those shooters going up against Indiana, I thought that that Freak was going to be able to assert his will and this and the shooters on Milwaukee would keep them in and the Pacers ran them the fuck off the floor and I lost a bunch of money.

But I still think that the core identity of this Milwaukee team, like Turner coming in makes it absolutely seamless.

He's an improvement over Brooke Lopez.

I mean, a huge improvement.

I didn't think Brooke was good last year.

He was fine.

I think where I would disagree with you is that like,

who do I want dribbling the basketball other than Giannis?

And at least I had like another guy to do that with Dame last year in a pick and roll combination that made sense.

Kevin Porter Jr.

is probably a little over tax in the role he's going to get.

Same with Ryan Rollins.

But

as long as you, I mean, like, and Giannis typically plays about 65-ish games.

So, like, the remaining 15 to 20 are going to be big for how much, if, if for how much they go over this number.

I am also an over.

Giannis plus shooting just makes a lot of sense to me if he gets the 65-70 games.

He's desperate, Giannis.

Well, this is my back is to the wall career-wise.

And I've thought about this all summer and I'm tired of losing Giannis.

Kuzma can't be worse.

I think Jericho Sims is like a decent backup center.

I agree.

And again, but the wild card is like, is there a world where this goes really south and Giannis is not on the team after the trend deadline?

I agree with you.

I think that's much more likely to be an off-season thing than an in-season thing.

So I am taking

without much thought, actually, this is an aggressive over for me.

Yeah.

I have it as a, I'm locking it down.

So am I.

Triple luck.

Triple luck.

Triple luck.

Triple luck.

It's on my lift.

It's Tuesday, October the 14th.

We're taping this podcast.

Doc Rivers' birthday.

Triple luck on Doc.

How about that?

Wow.

Triple luck on Doc Rivers' birthday.

Everyone invested in this

needs the Bucks to win basketball games.

They have no picks.

Doc Rivers doesn't.

I mean, he left Boston the moment they were even hinting of rebuilding.

Like, he doesn't want to rebuild with anybody.

Giannis, if he's going to be there, is going to try to win every game possible.

Miles Turner just signed this deal and is pissed at Indiana, and he's going to want to beat everybody too.

They also, a lot of the guys in this rotation are still like chip on their shoulder.

Nobody believes in me.

Why don't people think I'm good, guys?

Like, Kevin Porter, what the fuck has he ever done?

Like, he's still playing like he's proven himself.

Trent, over and over again, gets discounted in free agency.

Portis, like, he's born with that chip.

Cole Anthony.

I bought like Cole's sixth man of the year candidate.

Like, yeah, hot men.

I was giving away.

I'm I'm fine.

I think Cole Anthony could play crunch time for them.

I like, I like that Rollins.

I thought he was pretty good for them last year.

And Green is just like the one thing we've seen with shooters like that, they get better every year that they're in the league, right?

They always go up.

And I thought he was good last year.

I think this team's going to be good.

He's A.J.

Green's a good player.

Great chemistry with Giannis.

Portis is just rock steady offense off the bench.

We barely even mention him.

We take him for granted because he just does what he does.

I think I'm stunned that this line is so low.

Like, I don't think the trade is priced.

That was happening.

Yeah, I really think that's it.

I think people think he's just going to ask for a deal.

I have them.

I think they're either fourth or fifth in the East.

I have them or Atlanta

four or five.

I think they are not a playing team.

I think they're a fourth.

That makes tons of six.

I agree.

They're tons of six for me for sure.

We're all in agreement.

So I did write down

if we did get to vote for, I assume you're going to get your vote back, would be my guess.

I would ask for it.

If

you don't, you don't want the vote anymore, do you?

I mean, there's, I'm torn, but we'll see how it, you know, if you don't have the vote, you can gamble.

That's why

nobody offered it to me, but I'm

if they added an LVP award for most damaging player who played at least 25 minutes on a playoff team.

Don't do this to Kyle.

Kuzma's minus 250.

I can't even think who would be another like heavy prohibitive fan.

He's not, that's not him.

He's not.

I know he became a punchline last year.

Like he's not a bad NBA player.

He's going to bounce back this year.

You're predicting the Kuzma bounce back?

Kuzma bounce back.

Want to hit the legacy button or not?

Not most.

Not doing that.

2020 champion

legacy button?

The Kuzma legacy.

Well, they need him because if he actually can be

somewhat what he looked like three years ago before House's wizards contaminated him.

Well, he not contaminated.

He got bit by a spider.

He was his own, you know, it was a self-sabotage alongside what's was happening with the team.

The problem with him, what happened is that he checked the fuck out two years ago.

And you can't flip a switch in this league and show up with a team that's contending and get your head right for contending.

So we're going to see.

This offseason with this group is his head in the right place.

I'm proud that we got through this whole segment without talking about Giannis' future and where he's going to go.

Well, we kind of did.

We talked around it.

You have a whole season to do that.

Yeah.

If there was one team,

if we're wrong and he gets traded during the season oh boy you could only pick one team that that trade would happen to what is the team

do i have to go first i'll go first go ahead san antonio okay

because i don't think the knicks i just don't think it's an appetizing trade for the bucks i'm not trading yannis for what the knicks are offering houston good so you guys took one and two so what's that trade shengun i don't know it you just asked me to name a team Stop there.

I'm not going any further.

Shengoon.

Mine is Reed Shepherd.

Oklahoma City.

That's insane.

Okay.

Just saying they have the picks and the players.

Presty's even more risk-averse than Zach.

What's the risk of taking on Giannis?

They just won the championship.

We all picked them to lock in over 62 and a half wins.

What are they trading for Giannis?

Does Giannis hurt that?

Giannis said to diminishes their win potential.

I feel comfortable predicting that he will not get traded.

It's okay soon.

That's fine.

I'm reporting that right now.

It's a purely

it's a ridiculous exercise.

So I gave an answer.

I think San Antonio is ridiculous.

It's not.

It's not.

I think that's the team that makes a ton of sense.

And by the way, Yannis and Wemby on the same team is it absolutely like Zach.

putting the microphone down, walking away, doing like a couple laps and doing this a few times.

That's all fine, but just acknowledge that that is an enormous fuck you to Milwaukee.

There's nothing they're getting back from San Antonio other than we'll be good in five years, guys.

We'll be good again in five years.

Fox can be in that trade.

I was going to say.

And we'll be good again in five years.

Castle could be in that trade.

We'll be good again in the East in three years.

There's a bunch of picks that could go in that trade.

That's what I mean.

That's what I'm saying.

Kelly O'Linnick could be in that trade.

I love Kelly O'Linnick.

Luke Cornette on top.

Great eat.

Luke Cornette can't.

Kelly Oneth hanging up.

Don't mention Luke Cornette.

One of the best eaters in the NBA, Kelly Olinette.

Our next team is the Indiana Pacers.

The over-under was at 38.5.

It dropped to 37.5.

And now it is at a comfortable 36.5.

I think because.

Oh, I remember.

Tyris Halbern is out for the year.

That probably hurts it.

McConnell is out for the first month, it looks like.

And they lost Miles Turner

to the Bucs.

They were 15-32 last year.

So this would be a 14-win drop if you think they're going under.

They are plus 154 for the playoffs.

They're plus 110 for the play-in.

They are 35 to 1 for the conference.

They do have their own first-round pick.

And

I'm going to do my first.

Are we sure dot dot dot of either over or underpod?

Are we sure the Pacers aren't going to be pretty good?

So you're going over?

I mean, I'm not sure.

This was one of my toughest ones because the line is very low, 36 and a half.

And I will say this for the Pacers.

And this is relevant on the flip side to some other teams we're going to talk about.

Yeah, they lost Halliburton.

Their whole identity is wrapped up in how he plays, and particularly how he plays with the stretch center, who they also lost and are replacing with a mishmash of guys who are not quite that player.

All that said, this is a bunch of serious fucking dudes who care about the right things.

You will never hear anything on this, and a serious coach.

you will never hear anything on this team about this guy's hogging the ball.

There's a little Matherin, like, is he fit in the identity, but like, this guy's shirking his responsibility on defense.

This guy's not executing the scheme.

This guy's being selfish.

Like, there's just none of that on the team.

It's a team of serious adult basketball players.

And that gets you pretty far in the east.

So that's my answer to, like, I'm not sure that they're not going to be pretty good or they're whatever the double negative I just said was.

That said, I am going under on 36 and a half.

I just think they lost.

What a zag.

I think they lost so much of their identity.

Zach Zag.

I think they lost so much of their identity,

so much of their style of play.

Their full court press is not going to take everyone off guard like it did last year.

McConnell's already injured.

Their margin for like any more injuries is pretty slim.

Can Nemhart really be like a co-number one option and guard the best guy on the other team?

Like, how long can he sustain sustain that and if we're five games under 500 we do thanks to the pelicans by the way own our pick and we don't own it every year going forward not every there are some years they don't own it because of the pascal trade um is there some you know reverse incentive so i'm going under sorry casers

this was one of the controversial over-unders just in general house yeah what do you have uh i have him over because 37 is such a low bar in the east and zach made a compelling case, the case for why this team is not showing up to roll over.

They get derailed with any more injuries.

They cannot have any more injuries.

But I have Benedict Matherin in my most improved.

Like, I'm looking hot and heavy at those.

He gets the touches.

The touches are the thing that translate into him getting his head right.

Because Zach, you kind of alluded to it a little bit.

Like, what is this guy?

Is he one of you know, where is exactly?

He thinks he should get the ball more than he does.

Well, that's like not a concern this year.

He's 14 to 1 on FanDuel, second best odds.

Yeah, wow, really?

Yeah, who's number one?

Ben Thompson, plus 850.

And your guy, his brother, is 20 to 1.

I'll book all Nikola Jovich 25 to 1 bets if you guys want to make those with me directly.

You know who else is a serious basketball player?

Pascal Siakam.

Serious dude.

There we go.

Doesn't play selfishly.

Plays hard all the time.

Serious dude.

Bunch of serious dudes.

Nairn Neismith?

Neesmith Island?

That was an island.

Serious dude.

Boy, did we clean up on Neesmith Island?

I'm going over.

I think this team just has a bunch of professional dudes who really got a taste of it for a long, prolonged stretch of time.

last year and really understood

this is the level it needs to be at.

This feels great to be here.

I don't want to lose this.

I was watching the preseason, San Antonio, Indiana last night.

Just Toppin.

Toppin's going to play more minutes this year.

Toppin's like ready for it.

Toppin's good.

You think Toppin's like, oh no, we lost Miles Turner?

He's like, fuck that.

More minutes for me.

Siakam, Neesmith, Matherin.

You think he's like super upset that he's going to be getting all the Tyrese Halbert and touches for six months?

Connie Saki or Matherin.

Could be.

Love them hard.

I'm excited to see what he can do with more stuff.

Jerus Walker.

Always like Jarrett Walker.

Yeah.

I've been kind of mentioning that for the last two years.

I really want to see what happens with him.

And I guess the thing for me is:

can they kind of mismatch Phil, the Turner stuff, with Toppin, with Isaiah Jackson, with Huff?

Can they just kind of piece together a facsimile of his numbers?

A facsimile?

A facsimile.

Facsimile.

Facsimile.

Yeah.

I'm sorry.

Was that ignominious?

Well, you're going to.

It's where fax machine comes from.

Facsimile.

Facsimile.

I think they can patch together his numbers on offense.

I don't, defense probably won't be the same, but he was a real liability in that OKC series.

I like Huff.

I really like Carlisle.

My biggest fear is Bion Halbert and can they survive the loss of James Johnson?

What he brought.

Knowing that you're winning any bench clearing brawl so you can be aggressive because James Johnson's right there.

He's your double-deuce bouncer.

I am, I'm a hard over and it's a borderland lock for me.

Wow.

Yeah.

Okay.

I think they're going to be good.

It doesn't feel good to me to take the under on a team of serious professional basketball players.

I'm just, I'm doing it anyway.

There's something about

the season after

an overachieving team that had some sort of bad something.

Somebody left, somebody got injured whatever but there's still the dna of like what it took to get to where you got the year before that i think carries over i really do okay strong agree with that yeah i think they're i think they're gonna be an above 500 you only

win 37 games and i guess my my thing was how much of the dna is haliburton

right

I would argue the DNA is more from Carlisle and that style they had with all these ball handlers, all this pressure, all this unselfishness.

It's a little like what I, not to step on the Celtics section, but I think the Celtics had a real style and a system that even if you take Tatum out of it, which is awful, he's one of the best six players in the league, they're still going to shoot threes.

They're still going to have guys who do certain things and they still know who they are.

I like when teams know who they are compared to like a Sacramento.

I guess I should take

one more shot at them.

Do they know who they are or are they just tough mentally and physically?

Like, who are they without Tyrese Halliburton and Miles Turner?

I don't know who they are.

Well, I think Shepard is going to have to

step up.

Serious dude.

And then Matherin, basically, those guys are going to split the minutes for the Halliburton 30 plus minutes a game.

I don't know.

I think they're going to be good.

You guys are making me feel bad.

That's not the point.

Don't worry.

You can make fun of me for this next one.

The Chicago Bulls, 32 and a half.

Last year, they were 39 and 43.

They lost Lonzo Ball and added Isaac Occoro plus a lottery pick who won't play.

play.

Playoffs plus 320.

Year two of Boozellus.

They went 17 and 10 after the All-Star break, and they're the 10th net rating in the league.

So, House, why would they go 32 and 50 in a worse East with guys that are a year older?

I don't think they are.

I'm not taking the under on this team.

Billy Donovan, nine of the last 10 seasons, has won at least 39 games.

This franchise has given us no indication that they intend to rewrite the play-in purgatory that they are in.

That is their playbook.

It's the safest non-tanking bet in the NBA because they just want to go 40 and 42 every year for the rest of a team.

They want to go to the play-in and lose Miami.

That is the goal of the Chicago Bulls.

They are perfectly aligned to meet that goal this season.

I am taking the over on the Chicago Bulls.

40 and 42 is 62 and 20.

That's exactly right.

I think the better question is: why is this line so low?

For a team that's won 40, 39, and 39, why is the line so low?

I actually think the line is very well placed.

I think this team is going to win fewer games than it did last year, despite the bulk of the team being young.

I think the roster is just full of question marks on the wing, almost across the

board.

Vuch's defense is getting worse and worse every year.

Defense is better.

I don't know how they build a competent defense out of this team.

I don't know how they build an above-average offense out of this team, but 32.5 is just too low.

It's too low for a team that's going to run like hell to try to get to that third magical 38, 39 win mark in the play-in.

So I'm going over, but I think the line is shrewd.

I think this is a worse.

Like I'm going over and I see like 34 and 48.

I thought the line should have been 34 and a half.

I thought you were getting two free wins.

One thing I like about this team as a bad team is they actually know who they are.

They have a style.

I went to that Laker game last year when they just ran up and down and tried to run the Lakers off the court.

The Giddy Heath was that game?

Yeah.

Yeah.

The Giddy White together.

I really like Bozellus.

Me too.

Yes.

And I think there's a little under the hood with him to kind of bump this up.

And they have more of a bench this year.

I mean, even having guys like Herter and Zach Collins, like these guys are at least like

10th level, Coro.

These guys are like rotation guys.

Bench capable.

I think it's an easy over at this number.

If you had set the over at 38.5, I would have been an under

at that at that, which is where it should be based on what they've done the past year.

It's interesting that the line is still, they were also 29 and 40 last year, finished 10 and 3 against a pretty angel food cake schedule.

So there's some like mighty.

That's the thing.

We know they don't tank.

They, for whatever reason, dopely have been tanking.

I said it's like one of those rom-coms that come on Netflix

that my wife is trying to decide whether she should click on or not.

And the thumbnail has

Kate Mara, Patrick Dempsey, and Connie Britton.

And my wife's like, huh, I kind of like all three of those people, but I've never heard of this movie.

Should I click on this?

Is this movie good?

I'm like, I don't know.

First of all, that's a 34 and 48 team.

You guys stop right now.

Connie Britton.

You cannot disparage Connie Britton.

You cannot comp Dartmouth College's own Connie Britton with anybody on the Chicago Bulls roster.

Don't do it.

Take it back.

Delete it from the podcast.

Mrs.

Coach.

Mrs.

Coach.

I won't have it.

I won't have it.

You want to compare her to, you know,

an all-star?

Fine.

Okay.

Not anyone on this team.

Last 10 years, the Bulls are 349 and 444.

Great.

Mission accomplished.

Sixth worst record.

The other five teams are all in the east.

Pistons, number one.

Wizards, two.

Hornets three.

Magic four.

Nets five.

Bulls six.

The six worst teams in the league the last 10 years.

The Kings not being on that list is one of the greatest offsets that I can like.

They lit the beam.

But we're all over.

We're all over on the Bulls.

My stock guy.

Oh,

Bazealus, really.

Bozellus Island.

Well, Zach's right here.

Not everything can be an island.

Everybody loves Bozellus.

said there's no value.

Okay.

Not everything can be an island.

How dare you?

Are we going to have one island we're going to create this year?

Do you want to create an island?

I do want to create an island this year.

How about you create Dalen Terry Island, Julian Phillips Island?

Those are islands.

Those are islands.

I have a couple of Celtics Islands.

Pat Williams Island.

Pat Williams Island had a decent population for a while.

It's deserted.

It is, yeah.

Volleyball has floated off the coast.

nothing josh my not island might come up later oh god all right so we're all going uh over on the bulls over over over wow

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The Atlantic division, the New York Knicks, over under 52.5, minus 250 for the division, plus 380 for the conference 11-1 to win the title plus 280 for the one seed house they uh added yabaselli who we all love whatever's left of malcolm brogdon whatever's left of jordan clarkson they lost precious achua

and they exchanged tibbs for mike brown will that solve this solve whatever's ailing the next act low i don't know if it'll what it will solve uh i i you know it's one of those things you could kind of see coming based on how the indiana series was going I'm just going to come out and just say right now, they were also like, they were pretty healthy last year with their core guys, but I'm just going to lead with it.

I've seen a lot of unders on this number.

A lot of the projection systems are under.

It's a big number.

What did they win last year?

51 games?

51 and 31.

I'm going over on the Knicks.

I feel good about it.

I think this is,

there's this line of thinking like, well, you know, a Tibbs team.

always maximizes regular season win totals.

He overplays everybody, blah, blah, blah.

There's probably going to be a regression this year.

I think this team is deeper.

I think the core holdover guys are pretty hungry to prove, hey, we're not just like some sort of paper tiger from the East.

We're a real team.

We get more continuity.

We got Kat in the door right before the season started.

I know it's a big number.

Like, I feel pretty good going over on 52 and a half.

I think the Knicks are going to win more games than that.

It is a lock over for me.

Wow.

I think this Knicks team is loaded.

I am putting, it's a two-unit play on the one seed for me.

I think the Knicks are the best team in the East.

And I think the two things about what Zach just said that resonate, Mike Brown is going to come in and immediately free up some aspects of the offense.

Their bench, I think, averaged under 22 points.

a game last year.

They had, you know, scoring-wise, one of the most bereft benches in the league in terms of scoring talent.

They have addressed that.

They have adults.

And I think that the bit that we saw with Brunson injured in the run-up to the playoffs, the onset of the playoffs, where that team got a little more diverse on offense, I think that that clicks, that works with a Mike Brown offense.

And I think that that's going to translate into regular season wins.

I think they are built for it.

I think it's going to be a New York party all season long this upcoming season.

It's a lot for the KNICKS.

Mitch Robb, can we get like a real season out of him?

That's a game changer in terms of just their versatility on both ends of the floor.

I just, I've got to.

I've seen a lot of the projection systems below on the Knicks.

I'm the opposite.

I test drove it.

I really tried to talk myself into it because I felt like I had won too many overs.

And you just go back to last year that the towns trade happens like right before the season, basically.

And Mitch doesn't play for two-thirds of the season.

And their bench was fucking awful.

They still won 51 games.

And I think Yavisali is really good.

Like,

I don't know why more teams weren't on him.

I thought I really like Cornette too, but Cornette going for twice the price of Yabaselli, I thought was crazy.

I also think there's some McBride stuff with them that they can unlock.

Because as a Celtic fan going against them, I was happy when they would take him out.

And

there's some...

him and Brunson together stuff I think they could do.

I don't know.

I just

him, I don't think Brogdon has anything left.

I guess we'll find out.

Spot Minutes and he's smart.

He's not a big dummy, maybe.

He's not a dummy.

I do think it's a found himself in the playoffs a little bit.

So, I maybe they have 10 guys.

I like Shamit.

I, it's confusing to me that Shamit can never hold down.

Like, you can't just be a consistent 10th man.

Like, no one seems to trust him.

I like him.

I like him for this team.

There's home court advantage too with them.

And the tips thing was just super weird last year.

It was weird to watch in person.

He was playing everybody too many minutes.

Um, the only thing that really worried me was if the Giannis thing thing goes bad

and all that rumor stuff starts and trades and just this team being in trade rumors could undermine something.

I always feel like we underrate that.

It would always happen with LeBron teams where starting December, January, February, these guys would just be in rumors and then you could see how it would affect the team.

Towns and Ananobi would be the natural some sort of piece for Giannis.

And it's just, if they're just going to be in rumors from January on, I think that fucks the team up.

But I don't think it's going to be enough time.

I don't.

In a bad East,

54, 55 feels right, right?

Yeah.

And this is, you know, like they're,

it's an organization that's all on the same page.

It's the CAA, right?

It's the CAA organization.

Everybody's seeing eye to eye.

There isn't any backstabbing.

There isn't going to be any undermining.

You're just trying to suck up to Vino right now?

Well, I mean, I always suck up to Vino because I was saying, how else am I going to get a beautiful master's vest out of, you know, with the CAA logo on it?

But

there is something else can be bought.

I don't know.

That is right hand up.

I think, yes.

There's something to be said for that institutional stability in Mike Brown, that fit.

Like, there's a fit to the whole thing.

There's going to be real energy around this team this year, especially if Cleveland starts out a little gamey, if the Bucs start out 9-10.

This is the most exciting slash pressurized New York Knicks season from the jump since Patrick Ewing's prime.

Yeah.

This is a value.

That's what's at stake.

And that's the thing.

Those Knicks teams would go 60 and 22,

59 and 23, whatever.

All right, we're all aligned.

Wow.

Lock on the for sure.

Somebody would be.

I really want.

I tried.

I test drove it.

I looked at it.

I just couldn't get there.

What Pelton, what some of the projections are like, oh, sure.

The problem is when you actually start looking at their schedule and you're like, well, they're going to be favored by 11 in that one.

They'll be favored by 15 in that one.

They'll be favored by eight there.

This will be more fun.

The Philadelphia 76ers.

For the record, Pelton has then projected 47 wins to the Knicks.

Crazy.

Okay.

Philadelphia, 42.5,

plus 490 for the division, 13-1 for the conference, minus 240 for the playoffs.

They were 24-58 during a tank-tastic 2024-25 campaign.

They added...

Vijay Edgecombe.

They lost Yavicelli.

They're getting Mb'd back, we think.

McCain's hurt already for a while.

When does McCain come back?

That's going to be.

Unclear.

Unclear.

I don't think it's too, too long.

Yeah, it's not like into December, the end of November.

There's a scenario where this team, Embiid, who's skinnier, we should mention, we're skinny Embiid and some guards and a slightly rejuvenated Paul George.

Stuff's happening.

There's also a scenario where the coach and GM are just getting cleaned out in like January.

If you had to pick one of those two scenarios, what would you pick, Zach?

You have to pick one.

What was the first one?

First one is skinny and beads, some guards.

The vibes are good.

Didn't realize Paul George had this much left in the tank.

Oh, can kind of see the vision.

I think that's a little more likely than everyone gets fired in December, January.

I don't particularly think either one is likely, but we'll get there.

Great.

What do you got?

What do you got for this team?

There's almost no number

that's realistic that you could have given me where I would take the over.

I just can't do it.

I'm sorry.

Like, I can't do it.

I get the upside scenarios.

Yeah.

I get that they shot.

Like, I looked this up yesterday because last year, you can point to the missed games, and they missed a ton of games.

Everyone knows that.

Last year was also the first year that they were not good with Embiid on the floor.

Like, it was the first year that they were either neutral or like with all three of Embiid and George and Maxi, they were plus two with Embiid on the plus two, like total points.

So, like, neutral.

You know what the big reason for that was?

Other than that he was hurt and seemingly out of shit.

Yeah, he wasn't the same guy.

He doesn't protect the rim anymore.

Well, look, I'm not sure.

The rim protection stats with him were terrible last year.

And PG, for as disappointing as he was, it wasn't like he became abysmal.

He 16 a game, 43% shooting, 36% on threes.

Like, it's kind of what you would expect for a player entering the tail end of their time in the NBAs in his mid-30s.

It's a low number.

I just cannot, in good conscience, go over it.

I just can't.

I don't trust the infrastructure.

And I say that, like, I looked this up.

This is what I looked up.

They shot 29.8% on threes in Embiid's minutes last year.

Like, that's unthinkably bad and should be a case for some encouraging.

I just, that's

up in that.

How can anyone bet the over on this team right now?

Embiid, 11 years, 452 games, house, 31 years old, never made the Easter Conference finals, won five playoff series total.

I think it's better to go to the gas station and get a scratch ticket than to bet on this team going over.

I wouldn't bet anything on this team.

I wouldn't bet any.

It's a complete stayaway over, under, anything, but we have to make a non-bet.

I'm picking under, but it's a complete stayaway for me.

I would go to the Wawa, the Philadelphia Wawa, and grab a nice scratcher.

I would get $100 worth of scratches and try and,

that's not a Philadelphia accent.

I can't do Philadelphia.

I will say Embiid being in better shape this year, I think, is encouraging.

He's listed day-to-day right now.

So is Paul George.

That part's not encouraging.

Day-to-day.

Hard under for all of us?

I'm not locking it.

It's not hard.

Not a lot.

I just said a hard under.

What's going to happen?

I thought about locking it.

It's a scratch ticket.

The Embiid thing's too bad.

I know we've been critical on him on all the pods, but it just was more fun when he was really good.

It was fun to have a guy like that in the league that on any night might drop 60 on a Tuesday night on league pass.

And I know the era is kind of over now, but well, let's press the legacy button.

If he plays 60 games, no, he needs 65 to

qualify.

He's not going to play 65.

65 is impossible.

That's going to be AC Green.

He's going to come out for a minute back-to-back.

So you're already subtracting.

Bring him out for a minute and then sit him down, AC Greenstyle.

He's not going to be eligible for any any of the awards.

That's the reason, the only reason I mentioned 65.

But if he plays 58 games, 55 games, and this team gets through the east with 44 wins or whatever, and then he and Paul George are both healthy, and Jared McCain and Maxie are healthy, and Edgecombe is a revelation.

And they arrive at the playoffs, and they win the first two rounds of the playoffs because they get to play depleted

Milwaukee or depleted Indiana, something like that.

Toronto, who's made the push-up, and they're into the Eastern Conference Finals.

Is there something we're going to say nice things about Joel and B?

Of course.

Eastern Conference finals.

That all sounds great.

They've literally never been to the Eastern Black.

Eastern Conference finals in Joel Mb.

That's why I said.

It's why I'm saying.

I think their ceiling is we get to the end of the season and they're like, and nobody wants to play us team in the first round of the playoffs.

I can't, anything beyond that, my soul is too injured to even imagine at this point.

Completely understand.

What you're saying is, hopefully, we can become, and nobody wants to play us, nine seed.

I'm going under.

It's just the repetitive knee injuries are scary for the best player on the team.

I'm just too old now, and so are you, House, with basketball.

We've just seen too many seasons.

We know how this goes.

Yeah, we know.

Injury guys, it never ends well.

Obviously, an under.

Celtics over 42 and a half.

Division 8-1.

Conference 11-1.

Title 33-1.

Playoffs minus 225.

They turned Drew Holiday into Anthony Simons.

They turned Porzingis into Luca Garza and Josh Minot and Chris Boucher.

They lost Al Horford.

They lost Luke Cornet.

They turned Jason Tatum for at least four months into Hugo Gonzalez.

They have a $22.5 million trade exception and their own 2026 first.

They're in the first apron, $12 million over the luxury tax line.

And for a while, we thought this would be a tank season because they have their own pick.

And then Jason Tatum kept doing Instagram videos of how good he was looking.

And now he's dunking in the practice center and trying to make history with the fastest Achilles comeback.

And then now openly saying, I'm coming back.

I'm going to be on the team this year.

And I've told the Celtics that

42 and a half, Zach.

What do you got?

Under.

Okay.

I just think

they lost so much.

Their front court is just a morass of completely unproven guys.

And I understand like the stuff I said about serious dudes with Indiana.

These are serious dudes and a serious coach that are used to winning, that know what it takes to win, that know how far you can get in the NBA by just playing hard and playing right every single night.

I get all that.

They just lost so much that like if Derek White misses 15 games, it's just that they have no margin for white or brown missing anytime this season.

And

you combine that with all the incentives that are pointing to like, are they going to try to duck the tax?

Is this going to be if we get to the 40 game mark and we're not doing well, is does this transition into the tank gap year that you know people sort of started to?

I just think there's too much.

They lost too much and there's too much tugging.

I'm going under.

I'm sorry.

Who are you apologizing to?

You.

What do you mean?

I'm fine.

You've got Tatum coming back on Christmas.

I mean, honestly, I hope he doesn't.

I hope he comes back when he's 120% ready to come back.

I hope he's like cleared to play and then two more months pass before he he plays.

House?

Under 42 and 40 for the Boston Celtics.

That is under 42 and a half.

It is.

I honestly would have bet the over if it stayed at 41 and a half because 42

and 40.

It's funny you said that because I cop out.

I was leading of a cop out.

No, they're exactly a 500 team.

Like the DNA that you just described is of a winning team.

And the design of this team is going to be fascinating.

They're going to take a minimum of 63s a game.

Jalen Brown said he's on a track team, not a basketball team.

That's going to be fun to watch.

I'm going to enjoy watching it.

They're not going to get any offensive rebounds.

So they better make the threes.

They better be a lot of made threes.

But against the East, that's a 500 team with the players they have.

So I'm betting on them being a 500 team.

That's under.

Come on.

Come on.

Go over.

You got to go over.

It was so much more enticing to me at 41 and a half.

42 and 40 seemed reasonable.

Yeah, one win.

43 and 39

is way less enticing.

I can't believe to lose less than 40 games.

You just made the case for the under, and it's a good case.

So here's the thing.

I think it's 50-50.

Like, I think it's straight.

It's not like our Philly argument where I'm like, I'm not sure.

There's two outcomes.

The one is that

the system they play with and all the threes they shoot with and the Missoula being an alpha, all that stuff, that it just translates better the regular season than people think.

And they know how to play with each other.

There's real familiarity, real DNA.

The other thing is what Zach said, where if like one guy goes down for four weeks with a sprained ankle, the entire team falls apart, or the balance is way off.

Um,

I'm going to go over anyway.

Yes!

Yeah.

Yeah.

Good.

I think they're going to be pretty good.

I don't think they're going to to be fine.

All the guys that they got,

all the weird signings they have, all these bigs, they're all like energy guys who play hard.

On paper, the rebounding is going to be a disaster.

Disaster.

Not on paper.

On a basketball court.

Everyone's going to try.

I think Jalen is going to kind of secretly enjoy this whole

alpha Jalen.

We still have me.

I'm sorry.

I thought I was still one of the best 20 players in the league.

Why aren't we a playoff team?

I like it.

And I really like the guards.

I think the guards are going to be a problem in crunch time.

Pritchard, Simons, White, all together with Jalen and one big, and they just go super small in Deanna style.

And I think teams are going to be like, what is this?

Look, I don't feel super confident about the under.

Like, the guards are really good.

I just think the team is super thin in proven NBA players.

And I'm going to be able to agree more.

Thin is just bad for regular season.

I really like Simons on this team.

I think he's

Anthony Simon.

Like, closes games, like, they're running plays for him in certain matchups, kind of guy.

I think there's games where he's just going to have like 35 points.

There's to be running up and down there and be like, just fucking shoot three.

For the Nets or for the Celtics?

Well, that's the question.

The question with this over-under is, will Simons be in the team in February?

There's different ways they can cut the tax bill.

They can get under it.

They can flip a couple minimums here and there.

There's different ways.

But if Tatum's playing the last 30 games.

I'm sorry.

What?

If Tatum's playing the last 30 games, hypothetically.

So So he comes back.

The last 30 is February.

Yeah.

Who plays more games this year, Jason Tatum or Joelle Embiid?

Come on.

Answer the question.

Wow, that's a great one.

That's a great one.

Let's get Fandel to write a prop for that.

It's got to be Embiid.

Come on.

Embiid.

Well, what's the over-under for Embiid games?

I don't know.

I just asked who's playing more.

Embiid's a safer bet.

Embiid would be favored in that matchup.

I wouldn't bet it.

I can't believe you're thinking about this.

I just don't.

I mean.

I love everything about the Celtics discussion.

I'm still going under.

Me too.

We didn't talk about Missoula enough, so I'm just going to mention this one other piece.

I don't think that dude's built to tank.

I think he's an absolute maniac.

And you talk about like what the Celtics used to have with KG way back when, where it was just like every practice, every game, just like crazy, crazy, crazy.

I think he's like the KG for this team.

Just to be clear, this isn't a tank bet.

The under isn't a tank bet.

The under is is that Derek White misses 15 games or the James.

He's going to be right in that mid-40s.

The under is like, wait, how many minutes did Baylor Shireman play last night?

He looks great.

Like, he could be very good.

He's just young and unproven.

Unproven.

Property available on Shireman Island.

No, but Josh, Josh Minot Island,

I did put a little something down.

Toronto Raptors, 39.5.

They added Mamu.

They added Murray Boyles.

They lost Boucher.

They have one of the weirdest roster/slash salary cap situations where I think they have like a top 10 expensive roster.

They're over the tax.

They're in the first apron.

Over the tax.

I don't understand the team.

And the over is like right around where I would have had it.

There's actually a little action plus 104 on the over for 39.5 if you want to do that.

Uh, Zach's always, always uh, complimentary of the Raptors.

You're kind of in the back for them a little bit.

It's a great line, 39.5.

Yeah.

Uh, what do you have?

Over.

Over by default.

The two sweetest words in the English language, default.

I just think they have too much talent.

I understand all the questions about how weird the fit is.

The bench is unproven.

Are any of these shooting guards going to pop?

Does Murray Boyles give us anything?

Blah, blah, blah.

They just missed so many games due to injury last year.

And I just, I just think there's,

I can get to 42 wins with this roster.

If Quickly can give me 65, 70, if all the core guys give me some sort of minimum threshold of games, I can get to 42 wins at these.

And the organization top down

has to win.

They're like,

this is a front office that is a holdover front office, new controlling owner.

under super amounts of pressure to see, yeah, this model works.

This team we build works.

I'm going over.

So for them to hit this house they were 30 and 52 last year they have to be 10 wins better i mean they weren't even trying for two months they actively took wins off the table in that in that stretch they were ahead of teams considerably in the second half and just walked themselves back to losses it was appalling if you were a toronto fan rooting for wins fine if you were betting on second half uh you know the other teams to beat them in the second half this is a lock over for me.

This is a lock for all the reasons Zach just mentioned.

Plus, I mean, look, they met five of their top six players last year missed a combined 143 games.

Like they, they had, you know, bottom three injury luck in the league.

Um, I like the coach.

I think the coach is, is, is a, is a real dude.

I, you know, I, this, you, I said this to you, uh, and you laughed.

I think they have in their own heads the idea of being a poor man's Oklahoma City, which is to get out in transition, to force turnovers,

to take, force teams to miss threes and get moving.

And they have the guys that can convert.

Now,

this is why I asked Zach about the plant situation in Toronto.

They have extended Brandon Ingram.

They didn't just sign that homeboy and say, please show up and give us a good year.

They said to that man, we want you here.

And this is a lot of investment in Mr.

Ingram.

I'm willing to make it, but look,

he has to show us this year that he wants to play competitive basketball because it's a team that's built for a decent showing in a weakened East.

So I was leaning under for a while with them.

And my issue was that they spent all this money and capital to basically lock down a 43-win ceiling roster, which I just didn't fundamentally understand.

I don't want to be in the area they are with this really no chance to improve it.

It's expensive and you don't really have a chance to maybe do anything.

But with that mindset, 39 and a half, they should be over that because they've spent all this money to lock in a 43 and 39 team.

So maybe that's what they're going to be.

I don't see a scenario where

this team's terrible, especially in the East.

They'll score points.

I don't know if they'll make sense as we're watching them, right?

And there's a Scotty Barnes.

Is there something else there?

I don't personally think there is.

Some people like him more than I think I do.

His shooting really regressed last year.

He was dealing with some pretty bad ankles, playing through some pretty bad ankle stuff for a lot of last year.

I'm betting on a Scotty Barnes bounce back.

Ingram piece.

So, and if you're going the other way, like Ingram was available for a year and nobody wanted him.

That was weird, right?

He

left that team USA thing basically bagged out near the end, had an injury or whatever, but he wasn't going to play.

And so you're building around him and Barnes, two guys that I don't know if I trust

to lead anything.

I do like some of their younger guys a little bit as at least rotation guys, but I think they're right somewhere between 40 and 43.

You're going over?

We're all going over on their own.

I didn't want to, but I think there's no other.

Yeah, you did.

You sound like you're.

I don't feel great about it.

I locked it.

Yeah, I don't feel great about it.

Brooklyn Nets, over under 19 and a half.

I'm going under.

I'll just tell you guys now.

They're going to be awful.

This team, wow.

I mean, wow.

We can keep it quick if you want.

I'm also going under.

We're all going under.

The only thing to talk about is how good that coach is.

And I'm super impressed.

He's going, he's another one like Will Hardy to me.

He deserves the shot once they get the talent to stay and

coach some legitimate.

Yeah, but the front office Jordy proofed the roster this year.

I mean, like,

the only argument for the over is three of their starters are Cam Thomas, Michael Porter Jr., and Nick Claxton.

That's like, those are.

Hold on.

Let me tell my grandkids.

I said the only argument for an over on a line of 19 and a half winter.

You have to tell your grandkids about it.

Those are like representative NBA starter level players.

Now, and Cam and one of them, Cam Thomas, can handle the ball and run some of the offense.

I just think, A, they're all going to be trade candidates, and B,

if you hand an NBA team

to

rookie guards and they have a thousand of them, the results are generally like disastrous.

I said this in June.

The draft picks they made are all guys who need the ball.

Even that Danny Wolf, he needs the ball.

They drafted all these dudes who need the ball, and then they're going to all throw them out in the court together.

I really liked the draft last year.

I didn't like their draft.

The offense is going to be a mess.

This team's going to be awful.

This is a

trying to give your tickets away.

It's a bummer that it ticked down from 20 and a half to 19 and a half.

Would any net play in OKC?

It's a mean question.

I think Nick Claxon.

I agree.

Clacks can get minutes.

Who's he playing over?

Jalen Williams?

No, he's going to get all the home homegrown missed game minutes.

Yeah, there's missed game minutes there to be had.

Would any Net play in the Nuggets?

Michael Porter Jr.

knows the system.

Back up.

When does Brooklyn flip the tank switch?

It's flipped.

They already write this.

No, but I will see.

It starts on October the 22nd.

They'll let Jordy try to win games for a month.

I don't know if that's going to settle down.

They are praying someone gets desperate enough to take the Michael Porter Jr.

contract off their hands, I'm sure.

Can I give you, before we go to a break, the Brooklyn Nets' 15 years in Brooklyn recap?

It's a really, it's a winding tale.

Seven coaches and two playoff series wins.

They went for it, tanked, went for it, tanked.

They peaked for three weeks in 2021 with Zach's most theoretical, great team of all time.

Greatest theoretical team of all time.

They built the Tatum Brown dynasty in Boston.

They have some future picks, and they're the third most popular professional basketball team in New York.

You just, you left out so much stuff.

I've just given you the highlights.

What else do you want to put in there?

Wow, like we don't, there's a, there's a lot.

There's a plague.

There's a, there's a plague on the world that affected their team more than other people.

There's a mascot that they created and then murdered because everybody hated it so much, the Brooklyn Knight R.I.P.

There's good pizza.

It's been a wild, wild.

I was thinking in my head, like, how many of the seven coaches could we name in 30 seconds?

Let's see if this is a good one for House

because he's a little groggy now because he is on coffee in five hours.

That's true.

How many Nets coaches can you name from the 15 years?

Four maybe.

Would you start naming him?

Let's say Steve Nash.

Jordy Fernandez.

Oh,

from

Jacques Vaughan.

He coached.

One of them's easy from the last five years.

He's now coaching another NBA team.

I don't know.

Kenny Atkinson.

Oh, yeah, of course.

Yeah.

Kenny's good.

Avery Johnson.

Lionel Hollins.

Would not have gotten either one.

Jason Kidd.

Is that it?

I think that's it.

Wow.

Good job by us.

It's crazy.

Isn't Tony Brown?

Isn't there like an interim Tony Brown?

There's some interims.

Yeah.

I don't count the interims.

Sean Mark's still there.

We've talked about them too long.

Sean Mark's still there.

They can swap their first

in Houston, 2027, but it's Houston's choice.

Which is not Houston for them.

Houston can swap.

Not good for them.

Anyway, we'll take one more break.

We'll do the Southeast, the most fun of all the divisions.

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This week, the AFC North takes center stage as the Pittsburgh Steelers battle the Cincinnati Bengals.

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Nobody knows who's in charge of this division.

Every game is important.

It might only be nine wins to win this division.

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As you can tell from this overundress pod, I love betting NBA Futures.

One of my favorite things.

It gives you a little stake, not just in your team, but you can pick five, six, seven other teams.

Just kind of monitor their progress over the six-month season.

I like doing finals winners.

I like doing pairings for the finals.

I'm not allowed to bet on any of the the awards because I have a vote, but the playoff stuff is really fun.

Play-in is kind of a fun one.

Season leaders, you can bet on stuff like, will Wemby have a quadruple-double this year?

You can bet on that on FanDuel.

You can parlay stuff together.

I love betting on Steph Curry for most threes every season because he usually wins if he plays enough games.

Anyway, we're going to be talking about a bunch of these during the Over-Under podcast.

And then on Thursday night's podcast, we're going to be announcing our big super boost for the upcoming season.

That will be Friday, 10.14 on FanDuel.

Be ready.

Southeast, Orlando Magic, over 15.5, minus 185 for the division, 6-1 for the conference, plus 450 for the one seed.

They lost Cole Anthony, KCP, and finally, thankfully, Gary Harris.

They added Desmond Bain.

They added Tyus Jones.

They added Jace Richardson, who a lot of...

A lot of the stealth draft nerds really like and think might actually play for them.

Mo Wagner is going to come back at some point.

Yes.

Pretty deep team.

Desmond Bain's the big, uh, the big,

the big ad.

So they won 34 in 2023, 47 and 24.

Last year regressed to 21.

And the thinking, the common thinking with this team, with the over-under being 50 and a half, is that this will be a top three team in the East.

Do you agree, Zach Lowe?

This is a huge number.

When I first saw this number at 50 and a half, starting with a five, I was like, whoa,

that's, I was prepared to like hammer the over on the Orlando Magic because I thought it was gonna be like 47 and a half, 46 and a half, 50 and a half for a team that hasn't been a top 20 offense in a gazillion years.

Team that can't shoot straight.

And yeah, they got Desmond Bain, blah, blah, blah.

And you know what?

I'm hammering the over.

Over, over, over.

Give me all the action.

I just think this team's defense is a legit top three to five defense.

Every night they play super hard.

Paolo, leap, Franz, leap.

Suggs can't be any less healthy than he was last year.

Bain, huge addition.

Tyus Jones, huge addition.

Young guys, I like DeSilva even like Anthony Black, mini leap.

I just think this team's going to be a regular season wins machine over 50 and a half for a team that hasn't won this many games in a long time.

They could do that.

They did start last year 17 and 9.

47 wins two years ago.

Yeah.

I just don't think they're going to.

I mean, we're already in Jalen Suggs.

What's the timeline for, you know, for him?

I don't think he's far away.

From what I've heard, he's not far away.

He's not far away.

Okay.

Um,

Jalen Suggs, timeline injury.

No, keep talking to us.

I'm just looking this up.

The real thing to me is

I still left knee trochlea cartilage tear.

Yeah.

Well, we knew about that.

I'm just

getting the timeline.

Expected maybe sort of removes.

The secret sauce, and I was kind of

a prick about it last year.

I just need Franz Wagner to be a consistent scorer in this basketball elite.

You don't want him to shoot like.

I need him to

like, he had one season of good three-point shooting.

I'm all in on Franz.

You have to be.

That's the only way to get to the over here.

Zach's all in on Franz.

He's a you know what he is?

All in.

All right.

The hitch is what it is.

It's, it appears, it disappears, it reappears.

Hitch,

first of all, unlike most guys with jump shooting, whatever he had, he keeps shooting at least.

And he's just a basketball player.

He knows how to play both things.

He's basking.

I want you to go under.

Go under.

Come on.

I already wrote it down.

I'm under.

Yeah, we're both under.

Orlando Magic fans.

Just remember who had your back at 50 and a freaking half.

Me.

It's a growth.

That's a high number.

It's a high number.

You know what?

It's I just think 51 and 31 is a really good record for a team that is pretty young, that's adding a big bane piece, that doesn't know when Suggs is coming back, that has this Franz.

I never know what I'm getting from him month to month.

Let me see.

I don't.

Go ahead.

I don't 100% love the coach.

Oh, there we go.

So that's the part of it.

Make your demand.

You know what else I don't like, Zach Low?

Yeah, don't you like?

Lots of expectations for a team that hasn't done jack shit.

It's a good over-under recipe for, you know, we fell for it last year with them and they had the year from hell.

But I just think like if this team goes 49 and 33, that's a great season for them.

So is 50 and 32.

50 and 32.

Another great season for them.

season.

48-34.

Congrats.

Over.

It's an under.

It's an over for me.

We got to see one time.

People were begging for it last year.

Let's see a little offensive

ingenuity, a little innovation out of Orlando.

We can't just continue to tolerate the missed shots.

You asked earlier what happened to KCP.

What's the answer?

I don't know.

Right.

I don't know.

None of us have an explanation.

The bench wings make me a little bit nervous.

Like, I'm counting on DeSilva to give me something.

I might be counting on Jace Richardson to give me something.

I'm definitely counting on Anthony Black to give me more.

That makes me a little nervous.

Jonathan Isaac, I don't know how to pencil him in.

There's a lot of guys.

They're like, what am I going to do in this guy?

What am I going to do?

I think Bane is a

transformational stylistic player.

Okay.

I think he will unlock a lot of different things they can do offensively.

I don't think he's like a top 30 player in the NBA, but he's not far from that.

But I think for them, he's a a game changer.

I respect the culture.

I respect the effort.

I'm going over.

You cannot talk me out of it.

I like being on an over island.

Over island is the most fun place to be on this podcast.

They have, I did my top 100 exercise for the ringer, and they had five guys in the list.

Atlanta, 47 and a half.

Another team with a ton of expectations.

So I chose to go slightly under with Orlando and slightly over with Atlanta.

It's a combo deal.

Yeah, I felt like you had to choose and you couldn't go over for both.

I love it.

They're 40-42 last year, and I just like everything they did.

Alexander Walker, Porzingis, Kenard, Jalen Johnson back.

Missed what?

He missed the last two-thirds of the season.

I think he has a chance to be an all-star.

Kongwu, they finally gave him the car keys, got rid of Capella,

and

Trey Young contract here.

But I just like the team.

I think this is a really fun, regular season, get some wins,

high 40s range.

So the over-under, I wish it was one lower.

I wish it was 46.5,

but I still have to go over.

What do you have, House?

I'm in the same boat because I thought about it the same way, which is to say, if I'm going to go under on Orlando, then I'm going to go over on Atlanta.

And this number stayed right at that 47.5.

There was 46s early.

And I think in the summer, it was like 45s.

There were some great numbers.

Oh, man.

Remember the draft?

Yeah.

I mean, they were like 60 to 1 win the, there were some great future bets with them.

And now it's at the right number.

It's settled at exactly 47 and a half, which I think is a super fair number.

This is what you're gambling on if you take the over.

You're gambling on the infectious enthusiasm of Alexander Walker and Dyson together to create a defense.

With Jalen Johnson.

Yes.

So there's your defense.

This team didn't play no defense.

This is a no defense situation out on the perimeter.

They gave up up threes to everybody and their sister last year.

This team better come out and play some defense on the goddamn perimeter.

This is also a bet on Quinn Snyder.

And, you know, we've made this bet before.

We lost on Atlanta.

Did we win or lose last year?

We won in Atlanta last year.

Okay.

All right.

One other thing on this before we get to Zach, who's ready to zag.

He is.

He's going to murder us.

It's a stealth move team.

They have really good picks.

They have that Pelicans 26 first and their own.

They have a $13 million trade exception.

Maybe Rishashet could be on the right table and the right thing.

Maybe Jalen Johnson, if you want to start talking and have a really honest conversation.

I was going to say they're the stealthy honest team because they own the rights to Milwaukee's picks to a couple of them.

So it's an over for Mean House.

What do you have?

You know,

I don't have to choose between Orlando and Atlanta.

I went under on Indiana.

I went under on Boston.

I went under on Detroit.

I'm going emphatically over on the Atlanta Hawks.

There's no zag.

Yeah.

If there's a zag, it's that I don't have any of this.

Well, if it was 46 and a half, I'd feel a lot better.

47.

That's chicken shit stuff.

I'm going over.

No thought.

The Hawks are going over 47 and a half and the Magic are going over 50 and a half.

Over.

They have some of my favorite players.

I've always wanted Luke Kennard to be on one good team.

I always felt like on the right situation, he could be really good at

Memphis.

He had a Memphis moment.

Has Denver been like just like for a year?

I always wanted to go to Denver.

I thought he would have been an awesome nuggets bench guy.

Obviously, Porzingis.

I got to watch that, and so did Howes firsthand.

When he plays, he's genuinely impactful.

So even if you pencil him in for 50 games, the team's going to be fucking awesome in the 50 games.

They're going to be able to go Porzingis with the three perimeter guys and Trey at crunch time.

And I think they're going to be really hard to guard.

Reason should be better this year.

He was up and down.

It's a good

situation for him.

23, 22, and 20.

The case for the under is

every time we're all ready to trust the Hawks as an NBA collective,

they kick us in the nuts.

You are right.

Shooting is a little shaky.

Their bench after Kenard, Alexander Walker, and Okongu.

So now we're into eight guys.

Their bench after that makes me very nervous.

They're going to need Newell to play.

Yeah, they're going to need to make a trade, which they have the pieces.

They have the exceptions.

You can

do.

You cannot, and I cannot temper my enthusiasm.

I'm going over.

So over under Atlanta All-Stars, I'm going to give you the definites.

Giannis, Cade, Palo, Brunson, Mitchell, and Mobley.

I think those are the six definite all-stars.

Jalen Brown didn't make the list?

Probables.

Jalen Brown, Bam, and Towns.

I think we can comfortably say those are nine all-stars barring an injury.

There's three spots left.

Could the Hawks have two all-stars?

So that would have to be Trey, and then I think Jalen Johnson.

Oh, okay.

Not Dyson Daniels.

I would bet against it because we still have to account for all the Sixers guys, whoever among them survives.

I forgot about the Walking Dead.

Did you say Bancaro?

You said Bancaro, right?

I said Pancaro.

Yeah.

So there could be a bane in there.

You know what?

You know what?

It's very possible they could have two.

I thought Jalen Johnson, I thought that was the most underrated injury last year.

Scott Barnes, maybe if we believe in Trump.

But I thought that was the most underrated injury last year because he was

really becoming a guy, like a capital G guy, and then he was gone, and then nobody talked about him again.

If Embiid plays half the games and has a great

and has good numbers, the coaches will pick him because he'll just, he's got that kind of stature.

Yeah.

And then Maxie is still there.

If you could pick any.

I'm going to bet against Two Hawks All Stars.

If you could pick any East team to have three all-stars, which one would you pick?

It has to be Cleveland, right?

Well,

I'd say still Cleveland.

Mitchell Garland Mobley feels like the most likely trio.

Orlando?

Not for me at all.

Atlanta had Atlanta

with the two picks and the trade exception.

To me, there's a bench guy they don't have yet that they're going to have.

And it'll be like worst case scenario, George Nang, who maybe they can't even trade for him because they already had him.

But somebody of that ilk, somebody who's like...

A very impactful eighth man.

Miami Heat, 38.5.

They added Norm Powell and Fontechio and Achua and Yakashunis, my favorite post-lottery rookie.

Wow.

I didn't know he had that status.

Oh, yeah.

I was so mad when they got him.

It was classic Miami Heat.

Jay Heat could draft anybody and you'd be mad.

No, that one made me mad because it was like he just

fell five spots lower than he should have.

It was stupid.

And I was vindicated in the GM survey.

Everyone said that was like the steel pick.

They lost Robinson.

They lost High Smith, who they gave away.

Remember, I said that.

They lost Kyle Anderson.

They have their own 2026 first.

Most important,

Tyler Hero,

ankle surgery.

He's out.

They're saying, like, maybe end of December to me, that means like all-star break.

They always lie about that shit.

Could be 35, 40 missed games.

Does that make Miami a stealth tank candidate for you, Zach Love?

This is my blind faith pick.

Heat culture?

You and Adonis Haslam, the only two left in Heat culture alley?

Because

the tank scenario is there.

Yep.

The hero injury timetable is unclear.

I don't think it's going to be as bad as you said, but I don't know.

I don't know.

I just always add three to four weeks.

They were 37,

37 and 45 last year.

Yep.

And their best perimeter ball handler is injured.

Yes, they introduced another one, and Norm Powell, not a playmaker-like hero.

The playmaking quotient is getting pretty low.

By the way, Norm Powell is more like a heat check finisher, straight line finisher, shoot some threes.

Just like gets hot for five minutes.

He's not like a, let's run a week of plays for Norm Powell.

That was the idea with Terry Rogier.

I don't know what in the hell is going on there as can possibly be expected out of him.

But this is my blind faith pick.

I'm allowing myself the leeway of like, I just

trust the infrastructure.

I think some of the young players, like people are already out on Jake.

I think Jake is bounces back.

I like Jovich.

I like wear.

See what Yakachunis gives me.

Which is just a blind, anybody with an itch, you're in.

No, I like Jovich.

I think he's good.

He stays healthy.

He's an itch, but he's also going to be good.

There's literally no evidence of that.

You know what?

We're not going to argue about Nikola Jovich on this podcast.

I'm going over on the heat.

It's my blind faith pick.

Hardest working, hardest playing, toughest, whatever you want to write on the court.

They get points.

They're bringing back the Miami Vice jerseys.

That's like five wins.

I'm over.

I was excited for that.

It's not, I bet you guys are both going to go under.

Oh,

100% going under.

Under the smart picks, feels like I'm going over.

I'm a hard under.

I am over.

Oh, my God.

I am over.

The reason is.

I don't know how to lock it in.

You might lock it in.

I'm not locking in.

You might lock in against heat culture.

This team in each of 17, Spolstra's 17 seasons has topped 36 wins every season.

So we're looking.

They won 37 games last year in what should have was the most disastrous.

Jamie Butler tried to sabotage the basketball team.

He effectively sabotaged the basketball team.

He did it.

He fucked them up so bad and they won 37 games.

And they were the worst crunch time team imaginable.

They were so bad.

Do you recall how many times I went on the Ringer Gambling Show and told people to live bet the Miami Heat in the fourth quarter, live bet whoever's playing them.

It doesn't matter how much they're up by.

They gave up double-digit leads in the fourth quarter at an unprecedented rate last year.

And it was because they didn't have an offensive solution.

Tyler Harrow just took the ball the last four and a half minutes of every single game.

And they lost a bunch of those.

And we made a bunch of money out there.

This is the question for me.

Let's say Tyler Harrow was starting this season and playing healthy.

100%.

He's good.

He's playing 82 games.

What would you think their record would be?

Well, the line was not much different than this before his injury, right?

Yeah, it was like below 40.

I think they're 45 win team.

I think they're closer to like the Pistons,

Bucs tier of the East than they are to where they are.

Yeah, I think they're.

I have them in the Pacers, Celtics cluster of there's DNA here, but I'm not sure I trust what's going on.

But not having Hero for,

I mean, he was everything they did at crunch time.

What are they going to do at crunch time now?

They're going to run players.

Win games.

All they did last year was lose.

Yeah, win games.

King GNA worse.

Just lose worse.

But here's the thing: if you start out the first two months and they start out 10 and 16 or 10 and 17, that's what worries me.

The pick in 17.

At that point, you're like, fuck it.

Yeah, that's right.

Oh, you want Andrew Wiggins?

You're willing to give us a

clear wear yet?

Look, there's a reason I called this my blind faith pick.

I'm just giving Miami the over.

I'm just doing it out of respect.

Moving on to Charlotte.

I'm going under.

Over, over, under.

Charlotte Hornets, 26 and a half is the over-under.

They lost Yusuf Nurkic.

You're leading with Nurkic.

That's a loss.

Mark Williams, Seth Curry, and Akoji.

Yeah, it's nice.

They added

Colin Sexton, Dean Whitty, one of the Plumleys, Conaton, Knipple, McNeely,

and Kalk Brenner,

who's getting a lot of buzz.

A lot of Kalk Brenner buzz, like a lot.

He better.

A lot of buzz.

He'll be playing a lot of minutes.

A lot of buzz.

He's starting for them.

He better.

They just have way more talent than they did last year when you include the part that

Brandon Miller is actually going to play basketball and be healthy.

That Lamella Ball is going to try to be healthy and is at a fork in the road.

What the hell are you season?

Knipple is worth minimum 10 to 12 wins for you.

Who?

Knipple.

We're at the point where your lawyers told you it's now okay to start talking about.

I just think he's going to be immediately impactful.

Just glue guy.

He's going to rebound.

This team, even though they have a center, I I think they're going to rebound.

They have guys who are fill-the-box score guys.

Bridges had a pretty good year statistically last year.

But

I think we have to set that before we do our picks.

We have to set a deadline for can we find out if LaMelo is a superstar or not?

What year is that going to be?

It could be this year.

It could be next year.

You could go two years from now.

Just let's set a deadline for it because I don't want to talk about it anymore.

A superstar?

Superstar.

I mean,

I give that another couple of years.

I'd settle this year for like all-star.

Okay.

Agree.

Two more years.

Agree.

Two.

Two more years.

Yeah.

Can't have a business.

He's one of the most popular players in the league.

Yeah, but popular.

But the league needs him to be good.

Like, they need good stuff to happen with them and this team.

I like the coach.

Yeah.

I think the front office and the ownership,

everything they've done are things I would do if I ran a team and I was trying to rebuild and just be like, all right, I'll take that asset.

I'll grab that.

Grant Williams might be back back at some point.

Congrats.

I can't defend the saloon pick, whatever his name is, because we didn't see it.

Salon Salon.

Salon.

Doesn't look great as of today.

Guys,

it's an over for me.

I think they're going to be a competitive bad team.

I think they're like in the high 20s.

I think they'll win some games and kind of hang around.

And I don't think the East is good.

I am also an

I think my, okay.

There are two reasons I don't feel great about it.

Number one,

does ownership actually want to win games this year or do they want one more bite at the Apple, particularly since what they get out of Salon is going to be a question mark?

Like that might have been one bite and it may not yield fruit.

We'll see.

Number two,

I just don't know how the hell Charles Lee.

is going to make this defense anything better than abysmal.

Like a Miles Bridges plus whatever non-entities they have at center defense is just drawing dead from the beginning but i think offensively they could be all right and just like i think lamello is a good offense player the numbers suggest their offense was okay with him last year miller was a zero last year because of health he's going to play and this could be with the lack of teams in the west that are outright tanking other than utah and

combined with the fact that we have now seen a decent amount of years with these new lottery odds where losing at a high level does not reward you the way that it used to.

Huge point.

I think this team could win 28 games and still be like the fifth or sixth worst record in the NBA and be absolutely fine with that.

I am hammering the over.

I might lock the Charlotte Hornets over.

Which is insane.

Yeah, every year, I was looking it up for the last few years because I thought this was one of the most interesting ones.

We have like five or six teams that are like 26 wins and under, right?

So the worst six are usually 25 wins or below.

And the question with this bet would be, are they going to be one of the worst six teams?

And when you think they're in the east, there's easy wins to be had.

And there's players they have that are like Brandon Miller wants to prove that he's a good player.

He's got an extension stuff coming up.

Lamello wants to prove that you can build a franchise around him.

And then Knipo wants to prove he's.

good player right away.

And Charles Lee wants to prove he's a decent.

There's a lot of proving stuff with this team.

And I think they're going to be fun to watch.

I think, you know, I always look at these four o'clock on the West Coast here, and it's always Charlotte and Miami and Washington and Toronto.

I mean, we just said before, the six worst teams of the last 10 years were all in these.

Those teams are always on at four o'clock.

Charlotte's probably the one I would gravitate to of all those teams because I think they're going to be fun to watch.

I think they're going to play with the style.

So we're all over.

Yeah, we're all over because

we're asking for eight more wins.

And I think the Brandon Miller thing is most compelling to me.

Like he, I think he can play.

I think he can be a two-way guy, too.

And the contract incentive, it's that cop, that plus Charles Lee.

So there's just a lot of, there's a lot of East teams, a lot of teams, periods, like a lot of these teams that we're talking about where the over-under is around 40.

Like you're going into Charlotte on a back-to-back.

It's like a pain in the ass game to play.

Like, I got, man, they're going to run and like dunk all the way.

Always a dangerous Celtic game these last few years.

Yep.

Last one.

Here we are.

We made it.

The Washington Wizards.

We did it.

Amazing.

20 and a half.

They're 28 to 1 to make the playoffs, House.

If you want to put some down on that.

No, thank you.

They lost Brogdon, Poole, Smart, Bay, and Holmes.

They added McCollum

and Whitmore, and they drafted Trey Johnson and got Will Riley as well.

They have a top eight protected first that goes to the Knicks.

I don't think the Knicks should expect that one.

I don't think they're going to be getting getting that one.

So, House, one more worst four teams in the league season, and then you're good.

That's what it feels like.

Yeah.

And

they need to win 21 games to hit their over this season, which is three games more than last season.

Just a tiny over for me.

I like the over for.

I'm going to be messed up full.

Come on, be more enthusiastic.

I want to hear the enthusiasm.

Yeah, give us your

top five things you're looking forward to.

I keep watching this team.

They are a bottom three offensive team and a bottom three defensive team.

I just like, where's the Trey Johnson is already doing the thing that you want, which is he's the first in the gym.

He's the last out.

They have to tell him to go home.

All of that kind of thing.

And that's infectious.

And that's what you want with a young scorer.

He for sure, rookie of the year odds, like, you know,

Cooper flag injury odds.

Well, because you, he.

And he's going to play as many minutes as his body can tolerate.

He's going to put up as many shots as the team is willing to tolerate.

There is no question that he is going to have the combination of volume shooting and opportunity.

That's two-thirds of the third-best odds, 10-1.

Yeah.

So that's a play for me for sure.

Trey Johnson Rookie of the Year is a hard play and a tiny bit over because team

tiny bit of progress.

Henry, why not?

Why not?

Tiny over for me for what?

What's Jill in Harper?

I think he's 13 to 1.

Pretty good ads.

What do you got, Zach?

I'm going under on the Wizards.

I just

part of this assumes that McCollum and Middleton are going to be traded and or rested enough to not impact the offense.

Fair.

And I just think other than that, you are handing the basketball to a lot of inexperienced guys who are going to be facing adult experienced defenses, and that tends to go badly.

As I said on the Zach Wow show earlier this week, I'm excited about a lot of the young players on this team.

I just think in this particular season, I'm actually kind of surprised the line jumped from 19 and a half to 20 and a half.

I'm not sure why it did.

So I'm going under on all three of Brooklyn, Utah, and Washington, which seems based on gambling history, very, a very stupid thing to do.

No.

I'm also making this one of my locks,

which I did last year.

That's fine.

I just don't think Washington wants to be good.

And by the way, I like the asset.

They did a great job at asset collection.

We talk about asset collection.

I think Charlotte's done a good job, Washington.

But this roster makes no sense if you actually put all these dudes together on a basketball court.

It's a bunch of wings.

And nobody on the roster is a glue guy, even like McCollum.

Their only glue guy is Middleton.

And Middleton's, you know, at the tail end of his

who's a terrible offensive player.

I mean, he's really bad.

Yeah.

Like, I know he's exciting and he'll have a

play every once in a while, but he's a bad offensive player.

I'm defending him.

Marvin Begley the third?

I would argue he's got,

yeah, Marvin Begley the third.

I would argue Kulabali, who was that guy, Poku, on OKC, that was a great tanking?

Don't don't pretend like you forgot about Poku.

Who was that guy, Poku?

So many OKCs.

Alexander Pokoshevsky.

Remember, Poku started playing a lot.

And I wonder with Kulabali, it would be a lot of clear outs in March and April.

Don't do that.

Kulabali, call your number.

uh i do like the assets though and i think there's going to be some fun i've always wanted to see cam whitmore on the raid team me too no you haven't you've never wanted you you've always i've liked cam whitmore the entire time he was in the rockets he never played he's going to shoot a lot of shots fine with that um

i think if your name's cam you just come out firing that's what we've learned from

us

so The McCollum trade will happen pretty soon.

And then Middleton.

It's a salary to trade, man.

that's like what worries me a little bit about going under is that these guys just might lay around Middleton for a while.

Yeah.

Okay.

And be like helpful in ways that I don't want them to be helpful if I'm betting an under.

Okay.

Let's go through the picks.

Cavaliers, 56 and a half.

We all went over.

I'm going to

lock that one

at 56 and a half.

Do my locks from the West carry over to my total lock total?

No, you can do however many locks you want.

Okay.

What do you mean?

Do they carry over?

Well, I was told I need a minimum of six locks.

I don't know if that's per conference.

So total.

Total.

Total.

It carries over.

I've got like five already.

Okay.

Detroit Pistons, 56 and a half.

46 and a half.

46 and a half.

Under for all three of us.

Yeah.

Disappointing.

Milwaukee Bucks, 42.5.

Over.

We already locked it down.

Three locks.

Triple locks.

Triple lock.

Indiana Pacers, 36.5.

Over for me and house, under for Zach.

I really thought hard about locking that, but decided not to.

Wimp.

Chicago Bulls, 32.5.

We all went over on that.

Knicks, 52.5.

Over, over, over.

House, lock, over.

Lock the Knicks.

Philadelphia 76ers, 42.5.

Under, under,

and I'm going to lock my under

just for fun.

Dangerous.

Yeah.

Is it dangerous, though?

Is it Zach?

I wouldn't lock anything.

Is it dangerous?

They could put the over-under at 25 and a half, and I wouldn't lock it.

You know what?

I'm going to unlock it.

I've unlawed my lock.

No lock.

Lock waved.

Zach's right.

Just stay away from this team.

Stay away.

Stay away.

Bye, Scott.

42 and a half.

I went over.

You guys went under.

That was one of our big disagreements.

Toronto Raptors, three overs, including a lock.

I'm going to lock the Raptors.

I'm locking the Raptors.

See?

Look at this.

Love to to see it me and zach going safe

you know what once i lock the lock is locked the lock is locked you're not gonna unlock it nets under 19 and a half are we all under yes yes well not only am i under

this is a hardcore lock

with some feeny's pizzas thrown in no fee

lock for me at under 19 and a half.

I don't see any scenario where this team wins 20 games.

I honestly can't.

You They won 26 games last year.

They're going to be so bad.

They're going to be like watching when you go, like when your son started playing basketball and you're just watching these crazy 11-year-old teams of people just running around, not knowing who should have the ball.

So, all right.

We should, there should be, does the Reddit Bill Simmons page, like your comparisons need to be tracked.

Aiton has already been compared to multiple pieces of furniture.

The Nets were compared to an 11 and under basketball team.

I would love like how many metaphors in this podcast.

Wonderful stuff.

I feel like I've been late.

I feel like I could have dialed it up.

I mean, I compared the Kings to the Hindenburg.

You did do that.

Hawks, three overs.

Oh, I want to do a lock so bad for them.

Don't do it.

I'm too scarred from previous Hawks.

Yeah, it's just the Hawks.

Miami, under, 38.5

for me, over for you guys.

Yeah.

Charlotte, 26.5, over, over, over.

washington

20 and a half i locked that one down as an under

you went under yeah house went over so you were light on the east coast locks uh i i'm gonna lock something now

i'm locking orlando over 50 and a half okay i feel strongly about this i like being on orlando by myself on the over and I'm gonna lock it.

Okay.

You're allowed.

I'm gonna get super behind that one.

So playoff teams really quick before we go.

Okay.

If you just say in the top six, Cleveland, New York, Orlando, Atlanta, do we all feel good about those four being four of the six playoff teams?

Yep.

Yes.

Cleveland, New York, Orlando, Atlanta.

Would you put Milwaukee in there as the fifth playoff team?

I could tell you who my next two would be are Detroit and Milwaukee.

Yeah, I have Detroit and Milwaukee in there also.

I have Milwaukee and then Detroit.

Okay, so fine.

Play in

Boston, Indiana, Chicago, Toronto

in some order.

Boston, Indiana, Chicago, Toronto.

I am kicking out Chicago.

Okay.

And I am putting in Philly?

The Philadelphia 76.

Okay, that's fair.

All right.

Well, we just went for,

what time did we start?

A little before 10 o'clock.

That was a four-hour extravaganza.

I'm hungry.

Joe House, pleasure is over.

Pleasure.

Zach Lowe is hungry.

We did it.

We got hungry.

Great work.

Thanks to Chris

for hanging out.

Great job.

Multiple hours with us.

Thanks to Ronic as well and Eduardo.

And I'm going to be back with one more podcast.

We'll do some football.

I don't know if you're going to be on it.

What?

Well, maybe you'll be on it.

We just went four and one.

You saw it.

Oh, yeah.

We did go.

Yeah, you will be on it.

So I'll see you again on Thursday.

On behalf of myself and Con Knipples' family,

we'll see you next time here on the BS Podcast.

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