Eastern Conference Power Rankings and Big Issues Out West With Fred Katz

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All right, coming up, it's Monday.

Speaker 1 Big weekend of NBA action in the rearview. NBA Cup, the Emirates Cup, day two or day three, I can't even remember.
Got a big week coming up. Fred Katz from the Athletic.

Speaker 1 We're going to go over everything. We power ranked the entire Eastern Conference from 15 to 1.
How similar were our lists? A little different here and there. Middle is very muddled.

Speaker 1 Who's much higher than you expect? Who's fallen to depths you couldn't possibly have imagined? Orlando looking at you. Orlando Magic.
Who's number one? Do we both have the same team at number one?

Speaker 1 Is it the Detroit Pistons who are actually number one in the NBA standings in the East? We'll see. And then rapid fire, five topics, stressful topics du jour in the Western Conference.

Speaker 1 Some negative ones and one really positive one that should be stressing out everybody in the Western Conference. It involves the San Antonio Spurs.
DeAaron Fox is back. Steph Castle is blowing up.

Speaker 1 What does all that mean for the Spurs? What does it mean for a team like the Clippers, who is topic number one and struggling? Dallas, Memphis. We hit a lot of teams.

Speaker 1 We hit almost the entire league, honestly. Fred Katz from the Athletic and the Cats and Shoot podcast coming up after this.

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Speaker 2 Welcome to the Zach Lowe Show. It's Monday.

Speaker 1 There's a lot of stuff happening in the NBA. Fred Katz from the Athletic and the Cats and Shoot podcast is here to help sort through it.
How are you doing, Freddie?

Speaker 2 I'm doing great. I'm always thrilled to pop with you.
I'm ready to go.

Speaker 1 So last week I did early impressions of random Western Conference teams. We were going to do the same thing for a couple of Eastern Conference teams.
I said, you know what?

Speaker 1 Let's just have a little fun. Power rank the entire Eastern Conference from 15 to 1.
You did one list. I did one list.
I coalesced our list into one mega list. Our lists were actually pretty close.

Speaker 1 A little trivia for the listeners. The biggest gap in any team ranking between Fred's list and my list.
was a measly two spots.

Speaker 1 That applied to two teams, both of which are in the Southeast Division, the Orlando Magic and the Miami Heat. And really, Fred, the idea of this was simple.
Let's just take just a snapshot.

Speaker 1 Let's not think too hard about it. And the idea is not just power rankings like based on the standings right now.
Like

Speaker 1 the Pistons are not going to be number one. It's a combination of where we thought teams would be before the season, how they've played through 10 games.

Speaker 1 Combine that into like how serious of a playoff threat do we think this team can be based on what we know now, based on their trade assets, based on their trajectory, all of that.

Speaker 1 And then at the end, we're going to do five big stories emerging in the Western Conference. Are you ready to go reverse order power rankings in the East?

Speaker 2 I have never been more ready for anything in my life. Let's do this.

Speaker 1 Number 15, we both agreed on the Brooklyn Nets, 24th in offense, 30th in defense by four points per 100 possessions worse than the 29th team. That is hard to do.

Speaker 1 I don't really have a lot to say here. They're just not very good.
And Cam Thomas, their best offensive engine, is injured with a hamstring thing that's going to keep him out for a while.

Speaker 1 They can't get any rebounds.

Speaker 1 Joe Man has shown some signs the last couple of games. He's been moved into the starting lineup.
He's shooting threes willingly. That's interesting.

Speaker 1 Drake Powell got in against the Knicks last night after some injuries.

Speaker 1 He looks interesting. I just don't have a lot to say.
The Nets are very bad. They're designed to be very bad.
They're going to pick very high in the draft.

Speaker 1 Do you have any interesting Nets observations?

Speaker 2 I'm not sure there's a worse paint team in the league right now if you consider both sides of the floor. There's just so little resistance for them defensively.

Speaker 2 Anybody who puts the ball on the floor ends up getting into the paint and either scoring or creating from there. And on the other side, they just don't have creators to get to the paint.

Speaker 2 And especially with Cam Thomas out, and it just shows in

Speaker 2 every way. I did not think they were going to be the worst defensive team in the league.

Speaker 2 That I did not think was going to happen. And they have looked really, really

Speaker 2 dreadful defensively. And it's a problem.

Speaker 1 Yeah, only doubles, doubles, doubles, doubles, doubles have allowed more shots at the rim than the Brooklyn Nets so far. They're getting a little unlucky with opponent jump shooting.

Speaker 1 They have the worst opponent, three-point shooting percentage in the league. 42% opponents are on fire.
The Nets stink. We knew they would stink.
At least the uniforms are cool.

Speaker 1 Number 14 we agreed on was the Washington Wizards, 28th in offense, 29th in defense, 30th in net rating. So they have a claim to the last spot.
We both put them above the Brooklyn Nets.

Speaker 1 Really, I just did it because I enjoy watching them play basketball more than I enjoy watching the Nets play basketball.

Speaker 1 Despite Bilal Kulabali has missed almost the entire season, Chris Middleton looks very old and has missed some games. CJ McCollum was dead on arrival until the last couple of games when he got hot.

Speaker 1 Keyshawn George, really like him. He missed a couple recent games.
Alex Czar,

Speaker 1 this is everything the Wizards could have hoped for on both ends of the floor. Shooting threes well, finishing better around the basket.
Opponent shooting only 56% at the rim against him.

Speaker 1 Has to get tougher on the boards. It'll come.
But the all-court skills, bringing the ball up and transition, the passing, there's just a lot of, I would like Bub Carrington to make some baskets

Speaker 1 because I like a lot of other things about his game. But if he doesn't make baskets, all those other things kind of fall away.
I don't know. Just like watching this team.

Speaker 1 They're going to pick high in the draft too. Go Wiz.

Speaker 2 Yeah, I went Wizards over Nets just because, honestly, like basically for what you said, for the vibes. I mean, defensively, they have just been getting annihilated.

Speaker 2 Offensively, they have struggled to create. But I watch them and I'm like, Keyshawn George got way better and has been good.
And his pacing in the pick and roll is way better.

Speaker 2 His handle is way improved. His ability to keep defenders on his back when he kind of comes around ball screens now and create from there or

Speaker 2 get a step back off from there has been really impressive. Alex Sarr, I mean, adding to Alex Arr, his hands are so much better.
Like, did he catch a pass last year below his waist?

Speaker 2 I don't know if he did. He just, everything hit his hands and bounced off.
And this year, I think he's been so much better. He's added a couple post moves, too.

Speaker 2 He's doing that move where he's kind of going one dribble right from the mid-post, and then he's doing a little turnaround over his left shoulder. And that's, it's, it's like, it looks good.

Speaker 2 It works well. It's going in.
Like, he's, he's added things and looks a lot better.

Speaker 2 I like their young guys. I enjoy watching their young guys play, and you kind of see the making of something that's very far off, but at least the making of something there.

Speaker 2 Whereas Brooklyn, I just don't see the makings of anything right now.

Speaker 1 So that's my difference.

Speaker 1 The Nets people are all mad at me and Howard Beck because we talked about the dissonance of tanking while also concluding that all five rookies you drafted are not good enough to be on the court for significant minutes and or any minutes.

Speaker 1 And, you know, I understand why they're mad. That's just objectively true, other than Joman now is playing significant minutes.
Guys are in the G-League. And I don't really think that's a big deal.

Speaker 1 This is 10 games into a season. These guys are teenagers, 20 years old.
They're wildly inexperienced. They don't have a lot of veteran help on either end of the floor to sort of lift them up.

Speaker 1 Although I think Claxon is playing kind of hard. I'm not panicked about that.
I just think the Wizards' young talent is both more experienced and just pops better.

Speaker 1 Like Trey Johnson pops better than anyone on the nets so far. And that's just

Speaker 1 more fun.

Speaker 1 And Keyshawn George just stopped fouling so much. Okay.

Speaker 1 13.

Speaker 1 Our lists now start to differ. You had the Indiana Pacers at 1-9 at 13th.

Speaker 1 I grandfathered them into 12th above Charlotte just because if you make the finals and your entire team is injured, I'm just putting you above Charlotte on principle, even though Charlotte is 3-6.

Speaker 1 You had Charlotte 12th. I had, I'm sorry.
Yeah, you had Charlotte 12th, Indiana 13th. I had the reverse.
We'll call it a tie at 12. I have nothing to say about the Pacers.

Speaker 1 It's just their 30th in offense. Pascal Siakam had a DMP rest yesterday, and I was like, yeah, deserves it.

Speaker 1 I hope he didn't even get out of bed.

Speaker 1 Or it was just in like an ice bath the whole day or a sauna or something. Ben Shepard can't make a shot.
They're playing two centers at the same time.

Speaker 1 Jeremiah Robinson Earl is like wildly important to the team.

Speaker 1 I just, it's a lost season, and it's a damn good thing they got their pickback from the New Orleans Pelicans in that strange draft trade where the Pelicans acquired the Pacers pick in last year's draft in order order to bundle it and move up for Derrick Queen because despite all protestations about gap year, what gap year?

Speaker 1 The injuries have made it a gap year. The Pacers are going to potentially add a very high draft pick to Tyrese Halliburton coming back and all these guys getting healthy again.

Speaker 1 That's a little scary for the Eastern Conference.

Speaker 2 Yeah, it's not really the Pacers' fault why I have them at 13. I just get very sad when I watch them.
I absolutely loved watching that team last year so much.

Speaker 2 It was truly one of my favorite teams I can ever remember watching play basketball. They just played such gorgeous basketball together and the injuries and

Speaker 2 it's just been a very, very depressing watch for me. And I do feel like the difference between Charlotte and Indiana and why I had Charlotte higher, well, two differences.

Speaker 2 Number one, the Pacers now know they're like, this is, okay, this is a gap year, and they are going to treat it like a gap year. And I was kind of considering the rest of the season.

Speaker 2 The Pacers are going to treat this like a gap year.

Speaker 2 And while I think the Hornets will get to a point where, okay, they're going to fall out of playing contention and they'll kind of turn their priorities elsewhere, I don't think that's going to happen for longer.

Speaker 2 And you know what? I like watching the Hornets. The Hornets are fun.
They did really well in the draft this year. Every guy they picked looks like an awesome value grab.
Knipple is already good.

Speaker 2 Kalkbrenner in the second round. You know what's unbelievable, Zach?

Speaker 2 All year, what was the talk? Or I'll summarize, I should say, what was the talk of the Charlotte Hornets?

Speaker 2 I came on your podcast and we talked about how strange the Colin Sexton for Yusuf Nurkic trade was. And part of that was because, like, what are they going to do at center?

Speaker 2 What is this center rotation? Who's number one in the NBA in defensive rebounding rate right now?

Speaker 1 Charlotte. They're doing, you know, it's interesting.
They're doing a lot of things. There's a lot of evidence that Charles Lee and his staff are building.

Speaker 1 an infrastructure that's going to be interesting when the talent catches up with the infrastructure. Like, that is one of them, number one in defensive rebounding.
They don't foul.

Speaker 1 They get to the line a lot on offense. Their shot selection is pretty like optimal on offense, not so much on defense.

Speaker 1 And with Lamello Ball on the floor, they would have the number one offense in the NBA equivalent on the team level. Now, that's a little misleading because A, that's selecting your best lineups.

Speaker 1 And B, stop me if you heard this before. Lamello Ball is already missing games with an injury.
Brandon Miller has missed almost the entire season with an injury. I'm getting tired of this, Fred.

Speaker 1 I just want to see these guys play. It's not their fault.
I don't think it's their fault. Certainly not Brandon Miller's fault with the fluky injuries, the shoulder injury this year.

Speaker 1 I'm getting tired of it. Want to see the team.
But the Kalkman is rock solid in the middle for a rookie center. Probably should be a backup, but fine.
He can start on this team.

Speaker 1 Cyan James playing well as a sort of three and D guy, sometime starter. Trey Mann, certainly getting all the shots he wants to take.
And I thought that trade, Nerk, for Sexton, was more

Speaker 1 strange from Utah's perspective, but now Nurkic is their starting center because Walker Kessler is hurt. Charlotte, you're fun.
Hum diddly-deric Collins, the best. I love Eric Collins.
The best.

Speaker 2 And the other thing to add, Zach, is like,

Speaker 2 we talked about, I talked about the Nets being one of the worst attacking teams. The Hornets are one of the best attacking teams in the league.

Speaker 2 They just can't guard. They cannot guard.
They are a sieve defensively. But they have all of these dudes who will just fly at the rim.

Speaker 2 I think last time I checked, they were number one in the NBA and drives per 100 possessions. Like they are an onslaught at the rim.
They play really fast. They get into their offense quick.

Speaker 2 They're well coached, and there's something there. They've got real young guys.
They've got real talent. There's something there.

Speaker 2 And they're very fun to watch. I really enjoy watching them.
They're really fun.

Speaker 1 You know what I really like about Eric Collins, underrated Eric Collins line, is when the Hornets are trying to make like a frantic comeback to just dispel another inevitable loss, and they get within like six, and somebody on the other team makes a contested three at the end of the shot clock.

Speaker 1 The pain, oh, that's a sharp stick to the eye.

Speaker 1 Okay,

Speaker 1 he's the best man. Look,

Speaker 1 the Hornets are 15th in offense, 24th in defense. If they had LaMelo healthy and Miller healthy, they'd probably be like 12th in offense and 26th in defense, which is about what we expected.

Speaker 1 Now it gets tough. 3-2-11 is a morass in the Eastern Conference.

Speaker 1 You could order it in lots of different ways, depending on how seriously you want to take the 8-2 pistons, and we both ended up taking them quite seriously.

Speaker 1 And then there's just a bunch of teams in like this 6-4 to 5-6 range where, you know, take it or leave it with them. We were remarkably similar across the board.

Speaker 1 And now it starts in, I guess we're going to call it the 10th spot, tied for 10th.

Speaker 1 You had Toronto 10th and Boston 11th. I had Boston 10th and Toronto 11th.
And I can hear the Raptors fans saying, wait a second, wait a second, wait a second. We're 16th in offense,

Speaker 1 which is better than anyone could have reasonably expected based on just how weird our pieces seem to fit.

Speaker 1 Quickly's wildly uneven start to the season where his decision making goes haywire for half of every game.

Speaker 1 Purdle in and out of the lineup and they just, you know, look, they do have a great backup center.

Speaker 1 Mamu, the bench, the plus minus on the bench, Mamu, Grady Dick, although it feels like all of Toronto's young shooting guards are kind of disappointing right now.

Speaker 1 I guess they're just here because for me, you can have 10th, 11th, 9th, 8th. I don't really care.
I just need to see it for a little bit longer. And I'm a little bit worried that

Speaker 1 their four core perimeter players, Barnes, Barrett, Quickley, Ingram, who's been fine for them.

Speaker 1 are minus 32 in 160 minutes together and it doesn't get much better when you throw purtle in at the five. Just a strange team.
I want to see it for a little longer before I elevate them

Speaker 1 higher than this. They've played a tough schedule.

Speaker 1 They're solid. Don't particularly love watching them, but they're solid.

Speaker 2 It's a very strange makeup, and I thought they were strange coming into this year.

Speaker 2 I think they have done, I think like Darko Ryakovich has done a really good job in terms of figuring out all of those guys who have these

Speaker 2 overlapping skill sets in terms of the four that you just mentioned. Playing really fast, getting into the offense really fast.

Speaker 1 You can see pace, pace, pace. We don't have a, we got a weird team.
Our shooting's up and down. It's like, run, man, run.

Speaker 2 And run constantly. Like, you know who looks? God, I covered him for years, and I did not see R.J.

Speaker 2 Barrett being able to play in a system like this, making intuitive passes, creating corner threes, like...

Speaker 2 shooting really well right now. I did not see RJ Barrett becoming this.
Forget about this level of player. I I thought it was totally on the table.

Speaker 2 He became this level of player, but just becoming this style of player where he is reading the game really, really well. And they have guys who I think have stood out in that system.

Speaker 2 I kind of like the way that they've played for like a playing contention, sort of like. And the reason I have the Celtics below them, look, it was really close.
It was really tough.

Speaker 2 The reason I have the Celtics below them is I'm a little concerned about the Celtics offense.

Speaker 2 I'm just like, I'm a little concerned about the Celtics offense. I know they're somewhere in the middle of the league right now in terms of net rating, and I'm a little concerned about the fight.

Speaker 1 They're 11th in offense, Fred Katz, which is

Speaker 1 a crazy number for them.

Speaker 2 That is a crazy number for them.

Speaker 2 I'm concerned about the fact that they just like aren't getting corner threes at all anymore. And I think that's telling of the way that they play.

Speaker 2 I feel like a broken record. I'm talking so much about.
rim attacking right now. It's just so important in the league.

Speaker 2 And what's holding them off on offense is they've been better than I expected them to be on the offensive boards. They're still like just not getting defensive rebounds.

Speaker 2 On the offensive side, they just have not really gotten into the paint as much. They are not creating corner threes.
Their shot profile hasn't quite been where I would want it to be.

Speaker 2 A lot of above the break threes, and they're shooting really, really well. on above the break threes and they have like a lot of really good shooters.
It makes sense.

Speaker 2 Sam Hauser doesn't miss and Jalen Brown has been really good and Derek White is really good.

Speaker 2 And you look at all these guys they have in the rest, Peyton Pritchard doesn't miss, and they've got these dudes who can really shoot. I'm just

Speaker 2 a little concerned about their process right now. Joe Missoula is incredibly smart.

Speaker 2 He very well might find a way to kind of change that stuff around, but that was kind of my difference between those two teams.

Speaker 1 Boston

Speaker 1 is actually shooting a horrible on threes for the season. They are 27th and three-point percentage.

Speaker 1 And I think if there's a reason to hope that they can sustain a league average offense, it's that almost all their guys have been ice cold.

Speaker 1 Peyton Pritchard's had like two good shooting games and a bunch of bad ones. White's a little bit off.
Jalen Brown's up and down.

Speaker 1 On the other hand, all of them are playing one rung on the ladder above where they should be playing without Jason Tatum and with all the talent that went out the door, the talent atrophy of Drew Holiday and Porzingis and Horford and on and on.

Speaker 1 Front court death, we all knew it would be shaky.

Speaker 2 Like when they get anybody but Keda keda to play decent minutes like garza last night in orlando who we will get to um they become a kind of dangerous team i just they're just competitive and feisty they play good defense toronto and the reason the reason by the way that they're like down in three point percentage is because of that ratio i was talking about like they're taking way they're shooting really well from the corners and they're not taking very many they're shooting like 40 from the corners and they're just not taking very many corner threes because look taking corner threes is not a product of how many threes you can take it's a product of how many threes you can create, which are two different things.

Speaker 2 And I think they're taking a good amount of threes. They're taking a good amount of threes from above the break.
I'm not sure their creation is all that high right now. And

Speaker 2 it's okay. Like, I didn't expect it to be incredible or anything.
But, you know,

Speaker 2 I needed a little tiebreaker between then and Toronto, and that's where I've got it.

Speaker 1 I called Boston team extreme coming into the season, and I hoped that

Speaker 1 the coaching staff would use this season in part to make them, to try to make them a little less extreme in ways that might benefit them once they got whole again.

Speaker 1 That hasn't happened in the ways that I expected.

Speaker 1 I certainly did not expect them to be 28th in opponent free throw rate. They're fouling the hell out of everybody.
And they have a lot of rangy, like you throw in, might not.

Speaker 1 He's just got arms and he's young and he's going to hit people.

Speaker 1 And they're last in free throw rate on offense. So they're probably, they're like starting every game down by seven points.

Speaker 1 Toronto,

Speaker 1 very good turnover team, forcing a lot, taking care of the ball. Awful rebounding team.
We'll see if that turns. Take it or leave it.

Speaker 1 I just, again, you could order any of these teams any way you want. Number nine on our combined list,

Speaker 1 I had them ninth. You had them eighth.
So they average out to eight and a half. And in my little system here, that is ninth.
Are you ready to face the disrespect from the Chicago Bulls fans?

Speaker 1 Because they're six and three, tied with the Knicks for third in the East. We both have them ninth.

Speaker 2 Now,

Speaker 1 that's probably a couple spots above where I would have had them before the season, before Indiana just lost everybody to injury, although I took the under on Indiana and the over on the Bulls.

Speaker 1 Their line was very low. So, you know, when you factor in prior expectations, they've lost a couple games in a row.
They are down to 14th on offense and 17th on defense. And

Speaker 1 opponent jump shooting is starting to catch up with them a little bit after everybody missed every shot.

Speaker 1 I had, I don't remember who I had on. I can't remember who it was last week.
And I said, you know, do we need to revise our expectations? Is this now like a 46 to 48 win team?

Speaker 1 I still think it can be that, which would probably place them above, definitely place them above ninth in the East. I guess this is just me saying, okay, want to see it a little bit more.

Speaker 1 When does Kobe White come back?

Speaker 1 How much does he help their offense? How much does he hurt their defense? They've played a tough schedule.

Speaker 1 They've had Dasumnu miss a few games recently. He's a big part of their team in addition to Kobe White.
I just, I'm surprised that I ended up here because I like the experience of watching them.

Speaker 1 They play super hard.

Speaker 1 They have a pretty set identity on both ends of the floor.

Speaker 1 I guess if you're asking me, am I ready to put them above teams that have a worse record than them, but I had higher expectations for coming in, Atlanta, Orlando, Miami, even?

Speaker 1 No,

Speaker 1 I guess I'm not. And I don't really have a great reason for that.
I don't really trust their defense, and it started to regress a little bit.

Speaker 2 They're the new team of extremes. You said Boston was the team of extremes.
They're the new team of extremes, right? They are going to play crazy, crazy, crazy fast.

Speaker 2 They're going to run on everything.

Speaker 2 They are giving up the highest ratio of shots at the rim of any team in the league, according to Clean the Glass.

Speaker 2 They are giving up the fewest wide open threes per game of any team, according to Second Spectrum.

Speaker 2 And that's because of their defensive style.

Speaker 2 They just hug shooters on the perimeter. They're just not really going to help.
They're going to leave guys on an island.

Speaker 1 People have mentioned this as a novel thing, and it's like somewhat novel, but Indiana did this two years ago under Rick Carlisle, where they were just like, you know what? Go to the rim.

Speaker 1 Like, we have Miles Turner. We're going to try to do our best, and we're just not going to give up any threes.
And it like just sort of all came out in the wash as an okay defense.

Speaker 1 Doubles don't have Miles Turner. They have Nikola Vucevich, so we'll see how this works out.

Speaker 2 Yeah, 100%.

Speaker 2 That's the difference where like Miles Turner is a quality rim protector and they're just going to hug guys and they're going to funnel into into Miles Turner, whereas Chicago has more questionable defensive personnel.

Speaker 2 And like we saw, here's kind of why.

Speaker 2 Maybe I'm taking too much away from one game, but on Friday, Chicago plays Milwaukee. And I thought that was a great little

Speaker 2 test of, okay, how is this defensive strategy going to work against teams that really can attack? And there's obviously nobody better at getting to the rim than Giannis.

Speaker 2 Giannis made 14 shots in the restricted area in that game. That's obscene.

Speaker 2 That is insane. 28 points just off of buckets in the paint for one dude.

Speaker 2 There are games where teams don't get to 28, maybe. Like that is absolutely insane.
And obviously, Giannis is the most extreme version of all of this, but I'm watching it and I'm like.

Speaker 2 Against teams that can really get into the paint, I don't see enough resistance there from them.

Speaker 2 And that is kind of something that turns me off a little bit from them, but I've loved watching them play. They play crazy hard.

Speaker 1 I am very amenable on this.

Speaker 2 And for what it's worth,

Speaker 2 I had them above a team that I picked to finish third in the Eastern Conference last year, or coming into the year.

Speaker 1 Yeah, you had them eighth, and I had them ninth, so I guess Bulls fans should really be angry at me. Look, they're a good story.
They're a good team.

Speaker 1 The most important thing that's happened for them is that

Speaker 1 Boozelis looks very, very good, like a guy who's going to make all-star team slash teams maybe plural in his future.

Speaker 2 And I think Giddy is real. Like,

Speaker 2 I watched Josh Giddy's performances over and over again, and I don't see any reason why he can't just continue to play at this level.

Speaker 2 He is awesome at playing this incredibly fast, incredibly frantic speed.

Speaker 2 He, because he's such a big point guard, he is so good at just being able to get into the teeth of the defense and just being able to kick out. They've created this offense,

Speaker 2 which so accentuates all of his best traits. And I think the giddy stuff is real, too.
And

Speaker 2 I feel much better about the Bulls than I did coming into the year, and they could rise. Sure.

Speaker 1 The two things that have cemented for Giddy as real

Speaker 1 that portend well for him in this role, and I think even in a secondary role, when whether it's Boozelis or likely somebody else supersedes him.

Speaker 1 in the ball handling hierarchy, the catch and shoot three is real. He's making 40 plus percent again.

Speaker 1 He's open because people leave him open. I think he's a little less open this year than he was last year.

Speaker 1 And I think, even more importantly than that, he's finally driving with the physicality of somebody to match his size.

Speaker 1 If you put even a guy who's a little bit smaller than him, go ahead and go under the screen. He'll meet you at the other end.
He'll deck you with his shoulder and he's a good floater shooter.

Speaker 1 He'll just lay the ball in.

Speaker 1 Now, that has not translated to his defense, but the physicality on offense, his ability to get one step deeper toward the rim and what that opens up for Chicago and the pace with which they play is a real thing.

Speaker 2 Okay. Absolutely.
Zach, the free throws?

Speaker 1 Yeah, way up.

Speaker 2 Through the roof, his free throw rate is double his career average right now. It's like by far a career high.
It's double his career average. He is, that's all about that physicality.

Speaker 1 Okay,

Speaker 1 that is number nine. Number eight,

Speaker 1 you had them ninth. I had them seventh.
They average out as eight. Both of those numbers are very problematic spots for the Orlando Magic to find themselves in.
Eighth in our aggregate power rankings.

Speaker 1 The Magic are 20th in offense. I believe the city has started planning a parade for the potential top 20 finish in offense this year.

Speaker 1 And more disturbingly, for all the flack on the offensive end and how uncreative it is, how mucky it is, how it's kind of tougher than people might have realized to have two power forwards as your two best players and how easy it is to switch their actions when they cooperate with each other.

Speaker 1 There There are ways around that. Bane integration hasn't been as seamless as I certainly expected it to be.
Suggs on a minutes restriction.

Speaker 1 He's played great, and he's starting to play a little longer. That's great.
Center position, TBD, bench other than Tristan DeSilva, Anthony Black, still not shooting threes.

Speaker 1 This team can't be 14th in defense and an average to below average defensive rebounding team and do anything. in the Eastern Conference.
They need to be a top five defense.

Speaker 1 They have not been a top five defense. They're not playing with the same passion, physicality, and it's not just the rebounding.

Speaker 1 Like their transition defense has really lapsed, particularly after live ball turnovers, and they've committed a whole pile of those because their offense stinks.

Speaker 1 Something is amiss. Something is amiss, Fred.
And I was a little, I mean, I wasn't, I was not lower on this team. I picked over 50 and a half wins, so I was high on them.

Speaker 1 I never thought of them as like a potential finals team. I remember saying I think Atlanta may have a higher playoff ceiling than Orlando.
I might live to regret that statement.

Speaker 1 But this start has been almost a worst case scenario for the Magic across the board. And they just, every time you think they're getting right, they lose a game like last night at home against Boston.

Speaker 1 We're like, I don't know, what's going on here?

Speaker 2 So I'm going to make a statement that kind of sounds crazy.

Speaker 2 I wish they fouled more.

Speaker 2 They're like 19th. They're like 19th in free throw rate, defensive free throw rate that they're allowing.

Speaker 2 And

Speaker 2 that sounds like it's a low ranking. You generally don't want to foul a lot when you're playing defense.

Speaker 2 I felt like the reason why this defense was so good the last few years was tied completely in with its incessant fouling.

Speaker 2 And them in Oklahoma City have really picked up this style over the last few years that has been either beautiful or horrific to watch, depending on what kind of basketball you like to watch and what your rooting interest is.

Speaker 2 But where they just come out on the first play and they just annihilate everybody on the first possession. And they just set a baseline of, all right, well, that's a personal foul.

Speaker 2 So way harder than that has got to be a flagrant. And

Speaker 2 maybe a slap on the wrist that would be a foul for somebody else. That's not going to be a foul now because you can't just foul everybody out every possession.

Speaker 2 And we're not seeing that right now. I don't know why.
Part of the reason why I have them this low and like there could be a team that I thought was going to be really good.

Speaker 2 I thought they were going to win 50 games. Like, there could be a team that I thought was going to be really good that starts four and six that I wouldn't have this low.
I had them ninth.

Speaker 2 I wouldn't have them this low.

Speaker 1 Yeah, I had them seventh, Fred. So put some respect on stuff the Magic Dragon, all right?

Speaker 2 The way they have fallen to ninth in terms of that lack of defensive physicality, sometimes that lack of communication, they don't look like a team with very much continuity.

Speaker 2 You see them kind of, you see them kind of blow coverages that they didn't blow last year.

Speaker 2 It is, it is very, very odd.

Speaker 2 Not seeing Jonathan Isaac be just like the best per minute perimeter defender in the conference.

Speaker 1 How about you just not seeing Jonathan Isaac play in basketball games for more than three minutes? If that.

Speaker 2 Yeah,

Speaker 2 I was really holding out hope for so many years that maybe we could get to a point where we saw Jonathan Isaac play 20 plus minutes at some point after these injuries and they were using him for 15.

Speaker 2 And like they started him in that Cleveland series a couple of years ago in the first round. And it was like a good decision to start him.
And they have him when he's at his best.

Speaker 2 He's he's starting on, he could start on a point guard and he could start on a five. Like, there are very few guys in the league.

Speaker 2 We talk about guys who can guard all five positions before all the time, but usually it's a guy who can switch onto all five positions.

Speaker 2 Like, Bam can switch onto all five positions, but you're not going to start him on Jalen Brunson. But you will start

Speaker 2 prime Jonathan Isaac on Jalen Brunson. Uh, not having that is just a weapon that's been difficult.
I just, I wish they got their verve back.

Speaker 2 Like they just aren't smacking guys and they've confused me. I don't really know why it's happening, but you're right.

Speaker 2 It's like a something in the water situation. I don't know what it is and I don't quite know how to what to make of it.

Speaker 2 And if you told me that nine was crazy low, ended up being crazy low, I'd be like, okay, that's fine. They're so much more talented than this.

Speaker 2 And if you told me they were just going to stay here all year, I'd be like, okay, maybe. I don't really understand the root of their struggles right now.
It's like they've lost their personality.

Speaker 1 They deserve to be where they are in these rankings, eighth. This is where they deserve.

Speaker 1 They maybe even deserve to be lower, considering that we have them above teams with better records than they have.

Speaker 1 Interestingly, they are first in free throw rate on offense by a mile. So their physicality, a rim attacking, all that stuff is translated on offense in terms of the bully style they play.

Speaker 1 And look, everyone's going to nitpick the offense, and it's fair. They're 20th in offense.

Speaker 1 honestly like that's about where i thought they would be at this point in the season considering they started out bricking everything that they threw up at the rim um the middling defense is the problem but offensively look all they just have too many possessions where one thing happens and that's the whole thing um so i was watching the fourth quarter of their game this morning uh i think it was suggests and Bancaro ran a split action.

Speaker 1 And the magic run like a lot of that stuff run like off-ball cool stuff to get mismatches or force teams to decide, are we switching or are we not?

Speaker 1 And if we don't switch, someone's going to cut open all that. And then, so they get Derek White switched onto Bancaro.
Great. Step one.
Great. Derek White's a great defender.

Speaker 1 Bancaro's too big for him. Bancaro's above the three-point arc at the very top of the arc.
Franz Wagner's in one corner.

Speaker 1 Has not moved at all. Bane is in another corner, has not moved at all.
There's 14 on the shot clock. Bancaro just jacks a three.

Speaker 1 It almost breaks the backboard. It hits the backboard with such a thunk.
Now, a couple other possessions similar to that. He took Derek White down to the nail and made mid-range jumpers over him.

Speaker 1 I like that better.

Speaker 1 There was another possession in the fourth quarter where Bain ran like an Iverson cut, got the ball, dribbled around a little bit, iso'd on a switch against Garza, maybe, and just threw up a hopeless layup.

Speaker 1 Bancaro and Wagner stood next to each other on the right wing. Could have been me and you.
Did not move. Literally did not move.
Feet in cement.

Speaker 1 Just they just need more dynamism and i'm i was hopeful and remain hopeful that that is a matter of time

Speaker 1 chemistry bane integration everyone's sort of coming to the realization that i think we'll get to the nicks that they've come to that just like

Speaker 1 we need to play a little bit of a different style for this to work um

Speaker 1 and we shall see

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Speaker 1 Okay, number seven in our power rankings.

Speaker 1 I had them at eighth. You had them at sixth.
I can't believe I had them at eighth. Behind, I had them behind Orlando.

Speaker 1 And again, that's, I'm basing in my optimism on the magic in this ranking, but they come out seventh in the wash. And I was optimistic about this team all summer.

Speaker 1 Fred Cats, I kept saying they're going to be better than people think. They're revamping the offense.
The little birdies are telling me they're revamping their offense.

Speaker 1 I'm taking the over, took the over.

Speaker 1 Despite Tyler Hero being injured to start the season, I took the over. Bam's got an injury he's dealing with.
Norman Powell's had some injuries. The Miami Heat comes seventh.

Speaker 1 In our rankings, eighth in mine, sixth in yours. They are six and four, thirteenth in offense, number one in pace, fifth in defense.
Might be getting a little lucky.

Speaker 1 Opponents are shooting 32% on threes, and they allow a lot of them. But look, I mean, I just have a ton of respect for the infrastructure of the Heat.
I'm not even going to say the HC abbreviation.

Speaker 1 I just the way they play, how hard they play.

Speaker 1 And

Speaker 1 I just remember thinking, I've always liked Fontecchio. I like Jovich.
I still have hope for Hakez. Apella Larson's.
They still have a lot of good,

Speaker 1 good,

Speaker 1 solid,

Speaker 1 kind of big-wing-ish wing-ish players. Wiggins has been fantastic for them.
They're just rock solid.

Speaker 1 And if you told me that seventh ends up too low for them and they end up in the top six, I was saying all summer they're closer to this Atlanta, Detroit, Milwaukee group than they are to the bottom.

Speaker 1 I just think this is a really good team, and I love the way they play.

Speaker 1 I love that Eric Spolstra, after a gazillion years there as head coach, after playing a similar offensive system for a long time post-LeBron, was like, you know what? Throw it all in the trash.

Speaker 1 Let's try this new thing. And so far it's working.

Speaker 2 I love that after last year, when we talked for an entire season about is this style the Memphis Grizzlies are playing, is that going to work in the playoffs? And then we never actually got to see it.

Speaker 2 I love that we're going to get to see it now, assuming Miami ends up making it into the playoffs, which I think they will.

Speaker 2 People talk about how they're not running pick and rolls anymore. But it goes so much deeper than that.
They're not setting screens anymore.

Speaker 2 And Memphis was the same way last year. It wasn't just not running pick and roll.
It was also not setting screens. It is at so much more of an extreme level than Memphis was at last year.

Speaker 2 The numbers are crazy. Like they're running 18 pick and rolls per 100 possessions.
That's not just the lowest number in the NBA by a mile right now.

Speaker 2 Second Spectrum started tracking these stats in 2013.

Speaker 1 Since Second Spectrum started tracking this stats, can I guess what the lowest previous figure is for any team? So you said they're 18 per 100 possessions?

Speaker 2 They're 18.

Speaker 1 And second spectrum goes back how long? 2013?

Speaker 2 2013.

Speaker 1 I'm going to guess the previous season low pick and rolls per 100 possessions for any offense, team offense, is 37.

Speaker 2 It's a hell of a guess. It's 39.

Speaker 1 Okay.

Speaker 2 From the 2018-19 Philadelphia 76ers. So they're less than half of the previous record.
They're 23rd in the NBA in off-ball screens.

Speaker 2 They are 30th in the NBA in handoffs per 100 possessions. Remember when you couldn't tune into a heat game for more than two minutes without seeing a bam out of bio dribble handoff? I mean,

Speaker 2 they have completely changed their style. Again, Zach, not only 30th in handoffs per 100 possessions, since 2013, they are averaging the fewest handoffs per 100 possessions of any team since 2013.

Speaker 2 Like, they have completely changed how they play. And I honestly have people like to, I know the common thought on people is playoff basketball is about advantage creation.

Speaker 2 And it's really hard to create advantages on offense when you are not setting screens. That's how you create advantages.
That's how you create mismatches.

Speaker 2 And if you're not going to set screens, you might struggle during the playoffs. And you know what I'm going to say to that?

Speaker 2 I'm going to say, I don't know because I've never seen a team set this few screens.

Speaker 2 And I'm not going to pretend like Eric Spolstra is going to sit here and set up an offense that he thinks would just crap out in the playoffs. I am really curious to see what happens.

Speaker 2 And I'm really curious to see what happens with their offense.

Speaker 2 Because part of the reason I'm sure these numbers are so low is because they haven't had Tyler Hero, who's a very good pick and roll ball handler and is such a good creator for them.

Speaker 2 I'm really curious to see what happens when Hero comes back. Do they mix in more hero type stuff specifically for him? Or is Hero going to come back?

Speaker 2 And is Hero going to try to fit into the way that they're playing right now? Is it going to be some sort of middle ground, which would be my guess.

Speaker 2 But I am really curious to see how Hero does with all this.

Speaker 2 It's a lot of, it's a lot for people who haven't watched them, it's really beautiful basketball to watch where it's a lot of cutting and then you fill in for the cutter, a lot of simultaneous cutting.

Speaker 2 It almost looks like they're telepathic in terms of the way they play when they take off. It's not a ton of set plays, it's a lot of just like concepts and read and react.

Speaker 2 You need smart players to do it because you need the players to actually react to how they're being defended.

Speaker 2 It is, and you need all five guys to be on the same page. It is, it is, it's just just a blast to watch.
I'm intrigued by them. I think they're catching teams by surprise.
They also play crazy fast.

Speaker 2 They're getting like, they just get into their action so fast. Like, Orlando runs one action, and that's it, or runs one, one thing, and that's it.
Like, Miami has the opportunity to run an action.

Speaker 2 Okay, that didn't work. Swing to the second side.
Like, they are so good.

Speaker 2 And if you look at the numbers, like teams that after a swing to the second side, offensive efficiency just goes up so much if you're able to go side to side. Miami is really good at that.

Speaker 2 Just

Speaker 2 I'm just into, I'm just, and they're really good defensively. I'm just into them.

Speaker 1 A couple of things on what you said.

Speaker 1 The playoff test, the thing about the playoffs is you have to make the playoffs.

Speaker 1 And Miami had no right to expect that just sticking with the status quo was going to guarantee them a playoff spot, even in the shitty Eastern Conference. Hero,

Speaker 1 I do expect it to be a little bit of both. And I wonder how that actually works in practice.
He is not an awesome fit. Well, I shouldn't say that.

Speaker 1 I was going to say, like, this is a style that favors quick first steps, physical drivers who can create the advantages that you're talking about just without a pick.

Speaker 1 And that's the whole point of the offense is I suck in the defense, a gap opens up, I kick to someone. They drive through the gap.
The gaps get wider and wider and wider.

Speaker 1 Hero has, I think, a little bit of an underrated first step, but he's not like I'm going to knock you backwards with my shoulder and continue plowing into the paint, and then somebody comes.

Speaker 1 And it's also tempting to say, yes, their pick and roll numbers will go up from 18 towards wherever with Hero back.

Speaker 1 I wonder what form that takes. It's tempting to say, well, he and Bam.
I mean, that's all the reps that they have a million reps together, that they should lean into it with that.

Speaker 1 I wonder if it actually should be Hero and where,

Speaker 1 because Ware has been up and down this year. And I feel like if there's anyone who needs to catch some lobs on a pick and roll, it's him.
And he's not an awesome fit for just drive into people.

Speaker 1 He's more of a spacer sometimes in this offense. I could see it balancing out that way.
Look, I just, I like, I like the heat.

Speaker 1 Number six.

Speaker 1 I had them at six. You had them at seven.

Speaker 1 Kakoa!

Speaker 1 The Hawks, five and five. I don't know, man.
Like, Trey's hurt. We'll see how they do without Trey.

Speaker 1 It's been up and down so far against a couple of bum teams, and then they had a couple bad losses, or at least one bad loss.

Speaker 1 They are 22nd in offense, weird. Better with Trey, but not that much better.
12th in defense. Okay, it was fine.
Weird.

Speaker 1 Part of that is that they're getting very lucky on opponent three-point shooting, or somewhat lucky at least, but the defense personnel is big. It's rangy.

Speaker 1 It's switchable between Daniels Johnson and Reese,

Speaker 1 the two centers who they can sometimes play together. Nikhil Alexander Walker.

Speaker 1 You know, they're here for me

Speaker 1 in this range at six, seven. I had them at six.
It's just, I still think the ceiling is pretty high, but the ifs are starting to, the if pile is starting to get a little big for my taste.

Speaker 1 And the Trey Young question remaining unanswered. And now we have this month of data of

Speaker 1 it's not going to be answered, but we're going to learn a lot. I'm not sure I'm going to like what we're going to learn.
I don't know yet.

Speaker 1 And, you know, Porzingis has been in and out of the lineup as expected. Dyson Daniels has been up and down, trending up lately.

Speaker 1 The questions are outweighing the answers for me, but the talent and Reese Shea has had a very uneven start.

Speaker 1 Their outside shooting around the Trey pick and roll game is just so-so.

Speaker 1 Really needs Porzingis in there.

Speaker 1 I just, but I have to put them here because I really thought they had maybe the third highest ceiling in the Eastern Conference coming into the season but i've been i think i'm kind of like put a pin in the hooks for a little bit and hope they can stay afloat i think they will i think i said i bet they'll be something like 500 without tray yeah i mean i think i think they might be able to stay afloat without tray uh the thing is they just need to have everybody else if they're going to and

Speaker 2 you don't know about Jalen Johnson, who tends to miss time for injuries. You don't know about Porzinkis, who will miss time either because he rests or because of injuries or whatever else.

Speaker 2 And they're not crazy deep. You know, I wonder about like nine down with them.
Like Newell's been solid in moments.

Speaker 2 I think they've been pleased with him. But that's a rookie coming in and playing minutes.
Mogay is, you know, kind of an edge of the rotation guy, but if he's going to play a decent amount.

Speaker 1 He's made some threes lately. And again, it's one of those things where like, I'll put a pin in it.
I'll monitor it.

Speaker 1 I'm just like, it's a little soon for me to like really care that he's making some threes, but it's better than not.

Speaker 2 Yeah, 100%.

Speaker 2 The thing that concerns me about them, because for me, they're almost an incomplete, but the thing that concerns me about them right now is the rebounding.

Speaker 2 They're losing the possession game by so much that they're putting themselves at a disadvantage. They're like 24th in offensive rebounding, 28th in defensive rebounding.
And

Speaker 2 that is a problem, especially, by the way, in an age when teams are now just obsessing over winning the possession game, specifically on the offensive boards.

Speaker 2 Like you look at how much teams are prioritizing the offensive boards now. Like 18 teams right now have an offensive rebound rate over 30%, which used to be, used to get close to leading the league.

Speaker 2 Yeah. Like only a few years ago.
Like this didn't happen over 10 years.

Speaker 2 This happened over like two or three, where teams are now crashing in the specific way they feel like will help them on transition defense where they crash from like the high side of a player and try to pin him and they try to pin that guy in so he can't get back in transition.

Speaker 2 And it used to be thought of as offensive rebounding and transition defense. You got to choose between one or the other.

Speaker 2 And it's kind of being thought of now in a totally different way where it's actually the opposite, where if you crash in a specific way in the right way, you can actually help your transition defense.

Speaker 1 The Hawks right now.

Speaker 1 I mean, look at the Rockets. We're not talking West much today, but...

Speaker 1 Teams have a very hard time running against the Rockets because if you leak out at all, they're going to get an offensive rebound. And you need three people to box out Stephen Adams alone.

Speaker 1 And it is, they are dovetailing together. And I find the Rockets like

Speaker 1 weirdly hypnotic to watch because it's almost like they've kind of given up on first shot offense. Like, yeah, we don't really run much stuff.
A lot of people stand around.

Speaker 1 We have Kevin do some things or Shen Gun will drive. We're really playing for the offensive rebound as much as we are to make the shot.
It's very hypnotic to watch.

Speaker 2 Yeah, 100%. You look at it like San Antonio doesn't give up a lot of transition because of that.

Speaker 2 Boston, I think, is really good at preventing transition in that way. Missoula is like huge on the analytics of crashing.
He is huge on that.

Speaker 2 New York is another team, I think, that we could talk about, which has been extremely successful in doing this.

Speaker 2 Anyway, in a league where rebounding, I think, is kind of being looked at it in a different way. The Hawks are just really not good at it.

Speaker 2 And the other stuff, you know, I'm not really concerned about them being 22nd in offense because Trey has either been hurt or wasn't shooting well to begin the season and finally.

Speaker 1 Not really good. Not good.

Speaker 2 Right. And so it's like, you know what? I think if they're healthy, like, I think that'll come up.
My concern for Atlanta is like, man, they got to get some damn, they got to get some rebounds.

Speaker 2 They got to find a way to make that better.

Speaker 1 I'm just very curious how the next month goes

Speaker 1 and whether they and Trey are both willing to be like on good terms and say, let's just ride it out. Ride it out till the summer.
We'll figure out free agency when we get there.

Speaker 1 Or if they ever feel like

Speaker 1 we're not actually good enough, even with you, and this team called with this offer that we think is pretty good, and we have the Pelicans pick, potentially, well, no, they have the Pelicans pick, and we have some other recent number one pick, good young players.

Speaker 1 Like, we'll actually pivot and maybe not take as big a step back. I just, I'm interested in it.
Top five, Fred Katz. Top five.
We've made it to the top five. We both had this team as fifth.

Speaker 1 I can't believe that we have reached this point, that this team is fifth this early in the season. The Philadelphia 76ers, six and four,

Speaker 1 and Bed just scratching the surface looks a little better to me every game. The speed in particular, with which he's moving laterally, is trending the right way.

Speaker 1 The height of his jumps on defense, I don't see it quite trending the right way as much, but free throws are up. Rim defense has been a little better.
This team is

Speaker 1 fifth in offense, 22nd in defense, although a bunch of teams are bunched up. Obviously, the guards have all been a revelation.
Maxie is like a borderline MVP candidate.

Speaker 1 Edgecombe is a rookie of the year favorite/slash candidate. Grimes has been solid.
Kelly Ubre does Kelly Ubre things. Trending Watford's back at a freaking triple-double a couple days ago.

Speaker 1 And Embiid, 20 a game, 46% up to 53% on twos. That's trending the right way.

Speaker 1 Look, fifth is

Speaker 1 as high as I'm prepared to go.

Speaker 1 I still, like, just find it hard to believe that Joel can ever be healthy for an entire playoff run.

Speaker 1 Paul George exists and is on the team. How is he going to fit in? I think that's a fine.

Speaker 1 I'm not worried about that because... I look around, I'm like, I don't think I want Paul George taking shots away from anybody who's taking a ton of shots, but he is going to make Maxi's life easier.

Speaker 1 If he becomes a really good role player, you can average 16 a game doing that, and that's about like where Paul George might be at. I don't know, man.

Speaker 1 I can't believe how well this has gone for them. I just, I can't believe it.

Speaker 2 It starts with the guards. It really just starts with the guards.
It starts with the fact that Tyrese Maxi has just been on another, I mean, another freaking level. Holy crap.

Speaker 2 The constant aggression that he comes out playing with, and he's always been a guy guy who plays crazy hard and wants the big shot and whatever else, but the constant aggression that he plays with now, he has become so much of a better passer because of how hard he looks for his shot.

Speaker 2 There's some guys who are constantly looking for their own shot, and it's like, okay, that's a little bit too much. You're not really playing within the team's principles.

Speaker 2 He is one of those guys who has become so much better of a passer because he is constantly looking for his own shot. He attracts so much attention now and has just been spraying.

Speaker 2 And there's a world where the guard stuff doesn't work amazing. You didn't even mention Jared McCain, who I guess is healthy, but right.

Speaker 2 Healthy, but not even really finding time yet and can really score. There's a world where the guard stuff.

Speaker 2 didn't really work, especially together, where Grimes is on a qualifying offer and just averaged like 20 some odd a game for a tanking team and is like, I want to get my numbers and I want to get my payday.

Speaker 2 And Edgecombe's a rookie and is not really reading NBA defenses yet and is, you you know, kind of reverting to his comfort zones.

Speaker 2 And Maxie is just kind of there doing his Maxi stuff, but doesn't necessarily take this kind of leap. And it does really seem like a leap, like has me thinking like, man, can you win MIP twice? Like,

Speaker 2 can we argue that Tyrus Maxi might be more deserving of MVP now, of MIP now than the year that he actually won MIP?

Speaker 2 Meanwhile, these three guards are playing together. And it's too early for lineup data.
It's too early to look into lineup data and be like, okay, this is is a definitive thing now. Got to do this.

Speaker 2 However, I don't think it's too early to look at something. And if the numbers are super extreme in either direction,

Speaker 2 I'm keeping my eye on certain things. And one of the things that I'm keeping my eye on is Maxie, Edgecombe, Grimes together.
The Sixers are plus 18.1 per 100 possessions.

Speaker 2 Maxie, Edgecombe, Grimes, Oubre, the Sixers are like plus 28. per 100 possessions.
And it's too early. That number can come down.

Speaker 2 But even if that doubles in sample and they play to an even, they're still crushing opponents with those lineups. Those guys are playing really well together.
The Sixers are succeeding. Oubraysman.

Speaker 2 Ubre's been awesome, by the way.

Speaker 2 He's really become... a hell of a player.
He's become so much better of a defender than I ever thought.

Speaker 2 He used to foul so much on the perimeter, and he is just so aggressive and so handsy on the perimeter now.

Speaker 2 Super physical and really good at guarding smaller guys, especially.

Speaker 2 I love when they use him on point guards and he fights through screens and just kind of contests guys from behind he can really bother guys that way and he is so good at it um

Speaker 2 they just have a lot of good players i i didn't think they would be this good but they just have a lot of good players and they seem to be playing super well together i i i think they're i didn't even talk about joel embi'd you know i i think um

Speaker 1 DMB, I mean, he's obviously not playing back-to-backs. He's been on a minutes restriction.
Everyone agrees he doesn't look like the same guy who won MVP. Duh.
He's been through quite a lot.

Speaker 1 And I think I've said this before. I think part of that is probably him testing out his body.
How much physicality am I really comfortable with? You know, people who have injury histories, it's scary.

Speaker 1 It's scary to come back and just crash full bore into people, just run, sprint, jump as high as you can, try to touch the top of the square, all of that.

Speaker 1 It seems to be going the right direction, but more importantly, when he's on the floor, it doesn't feel like the team is bending over backwards to fit him into how they're playing. It seems like

Speaker 1 it just seems to be a pretty clean,

Speaker 1 like he'll trail behind when the guards are pushing. They'll get him the ball.
Everyone's moving around. It doesn't feel like they are one team with Embiid and one team without Embiid.

Speaker 1 It feels kind of like a nice mix. And you mentioned McCain.
A couple other, you mentioned lineup data. A couple other things I forgot to mention on previous teams.

Speaker 1 I just want to mention here as long as we're just flagging lineup data. I mentioned Khalel Ware.

Speaker 1 They've moved away from the Bamware combination is starting, which I think is smart for Miami. We're going back to Miami.
Ware and Bam minus 30 and 48 minutes together so far this year.

Speaker 1 Orlando, weirdly, for a team that we have eighth and is struggling, their starters are plus 20 per 100 possessions and plus 43 for the season. Every other lineup is not been good for them, basically.

Speaker 1 So just flag it. Yeah, Philly, great story.

Speaker 1 TBD on the rest. Top four.
Top four. Hallowed territory.

Speaker 1 We had different teams in third and fourth. We just flipped the order.

Speaker 1 And this was like third was sort of like, I guess I got to pick somebody for third. You had Detroit, currently number one in the East at eight and two.
I had Milwaukee. So you had Milwaukee fourth.

Speaker 1 I had Detroit fourth. I don't really care either way.

Speaker 1 Detroit has been the better team. They've had an easy schedule.
They have had major injuries that have, I think, hurt their offensive creativity a little bit between Ivy.

Speaker 1 Lavert missed a bunch of games. Sasser has been out.
Tobias Harris, who's rock solid for them, has been out recently. They just keep winning.
Keep winning close games. Again, easy schedule.

Speaker 1 They even caught Philly without MB'd last night. Another crunch time win for them.

Speaker 1 You know, Milwaukee is 6-4, I think.

Speaker 1 So they're two games behind Detroit. Their defense has been weirdly like not that good.

Speaker 1 22nd in defense, eighth in offense. This is just about deference to Giannis for me.

Speaker 1 Detroit has a ton going for it. They're young.
Jalen Duran is in the midst of a mega leap on both sides of the ball. They have all the trade assets you could possibly want.

Speaker 1 They are the tailor-made Lowry marketing team, whether they want to be or not.

Speaker 1 And maybe they actually decide what we have going here is so good and we're not that scared of the two teams above us in these power rankings in in your power rankings anyway one of whom we played very tough in the playoffs last year maybe we're not ready to actually cash in maybe we're maybe we're if we're even a little bit unsure that marking in at 50 million dollars a year 45 million dollars a year for several more years is like not quite the right guy for us we're fine keeping our powder dry and let the chips fall where they may in the playoffs i i love both of these i love the pistons it's fine you have the pistons third.

Speaker 1 I just am like the team that has Giannis, I'm going to put third, but I just, I don't look at any of these teams.

Speaker 1 I certainly don't look at the Bucs as like third with a bullet in the Eastern Conference. I don't know really what to do.
Which one of these teams do you want to start with?

Speaker 2 Let's start with the Pistons.

Speaker 2 That's fair.

Speaker 2 I was really torn on this too. I didn't really know which way to go, and I kind of just deferred to...
I feel like the Pistons have played a little better to start the season.

Speaker 2 They have the best record in the Eastern Conference right now. And I was like, you know what, that's a good enough tiebreaker as there is.

Speaker 2 I'm concerned for sure, if we're talking about like long-term playoff outlook and that kind of stuff, I'm concerned about

Speaker 2 how a lot of their lineups that have their best players out there are really problematic from a shooting and a spacing perspective.

Speaker 1 They play lineups with four

Speaker 1 pretty much total zeros as shooters. It's rare that they dip that far.
And again, they've been missing guys lately, and that's part of the reason why. But certainly

Speaker 1 just the Durin, Asar Thompson, you throw Ron Holland out there. It gets real tight.

Speaker 1 They make up for it with good interior passing, A-plus physicality and rebounding, smart cutting, particularly from Asar Thompson, and Jalen Durin catching the ball in space.

Speaker 1 Like, if you blitz Cade, some teams do, some teams don't, he is so much more polished. One dribble, help defenders coming at me, but he's smaller than me.

Speaker 1 Let me just calm myself, spin move, hook over him. It's not just the lob dunks from Cade, which are coming fast and furious.

Speaker 1 It's not just the face up and blow by slower centers, which is a few times a game now, and he's pretty polished at that.

Speaker 1 It's in traffic, game in motion around him, making the dump off pass, spin, score. They make up for it, but I agree with you.
In the playoffs, it just gets harder to play with so little shooting.

Speaker 1 And that's where the Ivy

Speaker 1 question kind of like, how much does he have to give this team? Is the catch and shoot three-point percentage from last year real?

Speaker 1 That could really up the dynamic of this team a lot.

Speaker 2 Yeah, and they're playing lineups now, too. Like, they're playing Durren and Isaiah Stewart together at times.

Speaker 1 You want to mess with those dudes? Good freaking luck, man. They will knock you on your Jalen Duran.
I mean, we all know Beef Stew.

Speaker 1 We've seen him blood pouring out of his mouth, running down the court, getting thrown out of games, all that stuff. Jalen Duran is like

Speaker 1 some sort of fictional... If you see him up close, you're like, this guy is like a Marvel superhero level build.
It's almost scary what he can do physically and how he looks.

Speaker 2 And Isaiah Stewart,

Speaker 2 everybody knows that Isaiah Stewart will beat the crap out of you and just

Speaker 2 what a beast he is.

Speaker 2 I feel like because of the way he started his career and he was on those dysfunctional pistons teams that had no idea how to defend as a team, we don't talk of him as like a technically really good defender.

Speaker 2 We just talk about him as a guy that'll beat you up.

Speaker 2 I think we have to talk about him as just one of the best rim protectors in the NBA now.

Speaker 2 I really think he's gotten to that point. Last year, he gave up

Speaker 2 46% shooting on dunks and layups when he was the closest defender. And amongst qualifying guys, that was the lowest number in the NBA since Andrew Bogut in 2015.

Speaker 1 And I got to tell you, this year it feels like 0%. It feels like he's blocking everything.

Speaker 1 Even when he's late and the guy is like, the ball is at the rim, he's like swatting it almost upwards to get it out of the way.

Speaker 2 Yep,

Speaker 2 he leads a league, and that's that again right now.

Speaker 2 And the great thing about Isaiah Stewart is I think for him, the blocks are gravy. Like he never contests to get the block.
He's a really good, like, two-hand contester, verticality contester.

Speaker 2 Like, he never contests to get the block. The block is just extra.
And those are the really, really great shot blockers. The Pistons are allowing 56% shooting at the rim this year, which is easy.

Speaker 1 Number one. Number one by

Speaker 2 a mile. Like easily number one.
It's because they always have Stewart or Durin who has, I mean,

Speaker 2 you talk about Durin's improvements offensively, which, you know, of course, but two years ago, like teams would go up against the Pistons. They'd be like, okay, put Durin in space.

Speaker 2 Last year in the playoffs, the Knicks would be like, you know what? Let's try to put Durin in space here for a little bit and let's just kind of attack Durin.

Speaker 2 You can't do that to him right now. He has just made such a ginormous leap on the defensive end as

Speaker 2 a pick and roll defender, as a rim protector. He's not really over-fouling as much.

Speaker 1 Switching a pinch, switching a pinch too. Like, as you said.

Speaker 1 Yeah, they're third in overall defense, 10th in offense. You carry this over from last year where in the last 50, whatever games of the season, they were basically a top 10 net rating team.

Speaker 1 This team's just good. They're really good.
I just worry about their offensive ceiling in the postseason, and they don't have Giannis.

Speaker 1 And as far as the Bucs go, they're finding their way a little bit with the front court rotation.

Speaker 1 Initially, like Giannis and Turner were attached at the hip, and then they played Portis at the five with a bunch of bench guys. Now they've started staggering them a little bit.

Speaker 1 I think that could be somewhat helpful.

Speaker 1 Kuzma is having a bit of a bounce back season. I think he's shooting like 68% on twos.
Teams are guarding him with centers and being like, you go ahead and shoot as many threes as you want.

Speaker 1 He's going to have to adjust to that. They're going to have to adjust to that.
Use him as a screener.

Speaker 1 Take threes confidently. He made a couple yesterday.
The Rollins thing is real.

Speaker 1 I just, you know, again, I don't look at them as like, oh, yeah, that's a top three team in any reasonable conference. But they, I just, I have that much respect for Giannis.

Speaker 1 And look, they bet big that this team, as is, could make noise, that the Lillard for Turner, like, mega gamble

Speaker 1 would be worth it. And so far, 10 games in, it looks like they can make noise.
Is it enough to placate Giannis and satisfy him long term?

Speaker 1 We have 70 games in the playoffs to decide that. But eighth in offense, 22nd in defense.
I think the former number is pretty real. I think the latter number will tick in a good way for them.

Speaker 1 I think they're just a good team.

Speaker 2 Yeah, yeah. I think that defense is going to come up too.

Speaker 2 They actually have like a really good defensive shot profile. They don't aren't giving up a ton of shots at the rim.

Speaker 2 I think they're the only team in the East that is top half of the league in ratio shots they're allowing at the rim and top half of the league in ratio shots they're allowing from three, which is a really nice combination.

Speaker 2 Normally, you know, you kind of have to choose one or the other, and they're the only team in the East that can claim that right now.

Speaker 2 They're getting killed on mid-range shots in terms of just the percentage they're giving up. I think that'll probably come down to a degree.
I have a question for you about the Bucs. Shoot.

Speaker 2 What do you make of the fact their starting lineup is just kind of getting crushed?

Speaker 1 I don't make much of it yet. I think the Turner thing has been a little uneven.

Speaker 1 I like the Rollins-Green-Trent combination. You'd like a little bit more size somewhere, but AJ Green plays a little bigger than his size.

Speaker 1 I haven't looked at numbers. Is he getting crushed that badly?

Speaker 2 It's like, you know, seven points per 100 right now, 90s or something like that.

Speaker 1 Look, I mean, like, it's all, it's a lot on Giannis, the shot creation, although Rollins has stepped up in that regard.

Speaker 1 I'm not,

Speaker 1 I haven't thought much about it. Okay, numbers one.

Speaker 2 Giannis has been, by the way, can we just.

Speaker 1 Oh, it's ridiculous.

Speaker 1 He has like, he just dunks every other possession.

Speaker 2 And, and, and A.J. Green has been a hidden hero for them.
He has been so fantastic. His chemistry with Giannis is amazing.

Speaker 2 They run such a great pick and roll game. They run these amazing Spain pick and roll.
Shout out to Eric Name, who wrote a great story a couple of weeks ago about

Speaker 2 AJ Green's just screening on span pick and rolls and his awareness to be able to pick a guy up and then come up to Giannis.

Speaker 2 Just killing it. AJ Green hits every 3-2.
Those guys have amazing chemistry.

Speaker 1 AJ Green, season by season, three-point percentage, just for fun, I just have it up right now. Obviously, limited minutes his first couple seasons.
42%, 41%, 43%, 47%.

Speaker 1 He's going to be like one of these.

Speaker 1 I'm not going to make a comparison because it's going to be like to like, and I hate that, but he's just going to be one of these guys who shoots 40% from three every single season like clockwork.

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Speaker 1 Okay, the top two.

Speaker 1 They were the top two coming into the season. They are not the top two in the standings, but they are second and third in the standings.

Speaker 1 We both had Cleveland at number two and the New York Knicks at number one.

Speaker 1 And I've watched a bunch of the recent Knicks games. I've been at a couple of them.

Speaker 1 They are up to second in offense.

Speaker 1 It bothers me a little bit that the broadcast, which I generally love, is like a lot of not subtle anti-Tibbs propaganda about the new offense and Mike Brown.

Speaker 1 Mike Brown's, if you take a drink every time someone on the broadcast says Mike Brown's offense, you will be hammered by the end of the first quarter. But they are second in offense, 10th in defense.

Speaker 1 And

Speaker 1 are they better than Cleveland? I don't know. I picked him to go to the finals before the year.

Speaker 1 I just,

Speaker 1 they got right away, they got the cat like three games in. The cat, I don't know, we're all figuring out our roles.

Speaker 1 I'm not sure like what I'm supposed to be doing because he's now starting at the four next to Mitchell Robinson.

Speaker 1 Not a situation that he's unfamiliar with, having done it for a lot of his career, starting next to a room-running five. Um,

Speaker 1 that combination has been absolutely lights out. Did you look up the numbers on that?

Speaker 2 No,

Speaker 1 Cat and Mitch plus 30 in 26 minutes together so far this season. Mitchell Robinson has been dream come true when he's been available

Speaker 1 for the Knicks on both ends of the floor. And I like,

Speaker 1 it's not always crisp, this Mike Brown offense.

Speaker 1 But it's something is happening here where even if it's not like the prettiest 2004 Sacramento Kings, 2002 Sacramento Kings kind of ball movement, They are moving more.

Speaker 1 They are moving a little faster. They have a lot more exchanges on and off the ball, and they seem to be attuned to when those exchanges open gaps.

Speaker 1 And they're just putting teams in the blender much more than they were before, where it's drive, kick, drive, kick, drive, kick, open three, dunk.

Speaker 1 A lot of that is not just the offensive, you know, whatever, but Josh Hart looking like Josh Hart again. Ananobi, this is the best he has ever played.

Speaker 1 Ananobi is putting together, like, if he's not on your early season, could he make a first-time all-star all-star team list? You're not doing that list right.

Speaker 1 He's never going to put up the points to like get on those lists. But has he been as good as Franz Wagner? Yeah, I think so.
Like, Franz Wagner's energy, way more points.

Speaker 1 I think OGNOB is unbelievable. And it just has the look.

Speaker 1 The competition has been great lately, admittedly. They smashed the Nets last night by a thousand points.

Speaker 1 I just like what I'm seeing in terms of they are playing like a team that, after the early, inevitable, I don't know, what are my role here?

Speaker 1 They look like a team that's kind of bought in. Like Kat,

Speaker 1 Kat gets, when Kat's at the five, he sets way more screens

Speaker 1 as a pick and roll screener. And I always love that.
You know, Fred, like the Brunson cat pick and roll, lean all the way into it. And they're leaning into it.

Speaker 1 They're getting, you know, blitzes out of it, quick pass over here, swing, swing, swing.

Speaker 1 And when he's not the center, when Mitchell Robinson is, he's finding his ways to contribute as a driver, post-up guy, cutter, spacer. It just, I don't know, man.

Speaker 1 I like the look of it.

Speaker 1 They have the look of a team that's like, okay, we're all in our primes. We're actually ready to try to do this the right way.

Speaker 2 Way more dribble handoffs.

Speaker 2 The offensive rebounding has been insane.

Speaker 1 Sixth overall, and I'll bet you with Mitch on the floor, it's like off the proverbial charts.

Speaker 2 With Mitch on the floor, it's insane. Last I checked, Mitchell Robinson was rebounding 30% of the Knicks' misses when he was on the floor.

Speaker 2 Not the Knicks were rebounding 30% of their misses when Mitchell Robinson was on the floor. Mitchell Robinson was rebounding 30% of misses.

Speaker 1 And yet every time you say his name,

Speaker 1 I just,

Speaker 1 every time you say his name and you say it often because he's that good and that important to the team,

Speaker 1 I begin to get worried because we know what the health issue is. And actually, I was watching this.
I was watching their game against the Nets. I was at their Minnesota game.

Speaker 1 Sometimes when they're playing well at Fred, I think to myself, I've been doing this for 15 years now.

Speaker 1 I legitimately never thought, as long as I had this career, that I would ever pick the New York Knicks to make the finals.

Speaker 1 It still feels funny to me when I think it and say it that I actually picked the New York Knicks to make the NBA finals, East being what it is even. Anyway.

Speaker 1 Yes, I...

Speaker 2 Look, I'm from New York, so, and I covered this team for a while, so I'm with you on that. I mean,

Speaker 2 Mitch, I I think there's an argument to be made that Mitchell Robinson is up there in the tier one most important role players in the entire league.

Speaker 1 It's terrifying.

Speaker 2 Because when the Knicks have him, I really think the reason that I have them at number one is because Mitchell Robinson is healthy right now.

Speaker 2 And if Mitchell Robinson were hurt, I'd have them below Cleveland.

Speaker 2 First of all, Mitchell Robinson has the history of annihilating Cleveland in a playoff series as he did during that first round series in 2023.

Speaker 2 I shouldn't even say first of all, that's really down the list. Really, first of all, is what he does for them defensively.
He has become so much headier of a defender than he ever was.

Speaker 1 I just remember when he also plays incredibly hard on defense, which he did not always do when he was younger.

Speaker 2 And he tried to block everything when he was younger and went after things. I mean, look, I'm close to this team, so I can, you know,

Speaker 2 I had a conversation with Mitchell Robinson, must have been last year. Maybe it was, yeah, it was last year, where I referred to him as a shot blocker, just kind of off the cuff.

Speaker 2 And he was like, I'm not a shot blocker. And he hadn't had a block in like two or three games, but it's not because he wasn't playing well defensively.
He was like, I'm not a shot blocker.

Speaker 2 I said to him, I was like, what are you talking about? Of course you're a shot blocker. He's like, when was the last time I had a block? And I go through the game block.

Speaker 2 I'm like, I guess you haven't had a block in like three games. He says, yeah, I don't care about blocks anymore.
I just want to disrupt the shot. I just want to disrupt the shot.

Speaker 2 A guy understanding that.

Speaker 1 Remember when he used to post videos of taking off the Dribbble 3s on Instagram and be like, yeah, I can do this. You're like, okay, cool.

Speaker 1 Like, I don't, I don't, I don't, I don't follow Mitch Robinson on Instagram. Maybe I should.
Is he doing that? Because he seems completely fine, just all in on what he does well.

Speaker 2 He's, he's a lot of talk in that, in that sense. He's still posting stuff.
Now he posts on Facebook. He's, he's, he's really.
Wow. He's really aged.

Speaker 1 What a zag, as Bill would say. It's really aged.

Speaker 2 Now, now he just posts on Facebook. Now you have have to follow his Facebook friendster

Speaker 1 get back on Friendster he's gonna yeah he's gonna end up in like uh in like myspace or napster after this and he's gonna be good to go he's gonna be sharing his his highlights on kaza i was on friendster i liked friendster i was not on friendster but i remember friendster i was on myspace i had a date once based on a friend friendster friend interaction didn't didn't go there was no second date based on yeah we met i don't know i like i i think we had friends of a friends of a friends We had something in common.

Speaker 1 I probably reached out to her.

Speaker 1 We had a little banter. We went on a date.
Date went bad. We went to the Abbey Pub.
I don't know if it exists anymore. 103rd in Broadway, one of my favorite bars in the city.
And it didn't go good.

Speaker 2 Didn't go good.

Speaker 2 A Friendster date is, I was not expecting that to come up in a conversation.

Speaker 1 Now I'm looking at it.

Speaker 1 You keep talking. I got to look if the Abbey Pub still exists.

Speaker 1 Abbey Pub to close after 49 years. It closed on April 14th, 2008, and it was on 105th in Broadway.
So I was almost right.

Speaker 1 I watched the, you know what game I watched there, Fred? I watched the Steve Bartman game at the Abbey Pub. That's my landmark Abbey Pub memory.

Speaker 2 Once Frenster went down, all the business from Abbey Pub just completely went away.

Speaker 2 Nobody was able to go there.

Speaker 2 The other part with the Knicks that's interesting is the types of shots they're creating is very different. I mean, they were 27th in catch and shoot threes last year.

Speaker 2 They're eighth in catch and shoot threes this year. They lead the league by a lot in corner three-point attempts.
They took 17. I mean, look, we talked about Brooklyn defense.

Speaker 1 Blender, baby.

Speaker 2 But they took 17 corner threes against Brooklyn on Sunday night in the first three quarters. They took nine in the first quarter.

Speaker 2 They're prioritizing different kinds of shots. Mikhail Bridges is a completely different guy than he was last year on both sides of the floor.

Speaker 2 You're right on Ananobi. He's been excellent.
He is just putting up threes with absolutely no hesitance whatsoever.

Speaker 2 And on the other side, I actually think the way they're they're playing defensively has really accentuated his strengths.

Speaker 2 There's a lot more kind of shifting off the ball, defensive helping into the lane.

Speaker 2 They're giving up a few too many threes, I think, because of that.

Speaker 1 Only one team has given up more threes,

Speaker 1 but just like teams are making them pay. Teams are on fire from threes.
So this is not a luck situation, but they do need to clean that up a little bit.

Speaker 2 Yeah, they do. And I think you see them where like Ananobi will help into the lane, get back out on the guy.

Speaker 2 And it's part of their way of kind of trying to create turnovers, play faster and muck up drives. And that's fine.
You let OG Ananobi do that. You let Mikhail Bridges do that.

Speaker 2 You let Mitchell Robinson do that. Those guys have the length, the athleticism, the defensive skill.

Speaker 2 But every once in a while, you see Jalen Brunson jump into the lane to help on a drive when he's like being hidden on a standstill shooter and he doesn't get back out in time.

Speaker 2 And it's just wide open three.

Speaker 2 And like, that's the kind of stuff where I'm like, okay, you know, they're still, they're clearly still learning the system, but maybe they get to a point where it's like, okay, maybe this is the way they play.

Speaker 1 But like, with Brunson, they don't play that way.

Speaker 2 They can play that way with Ananobi, but don't, maybe don't play that way with Jalen Brunson.

Speaker 1 Yeah. But offensively, even with Brunson, the just the frequency of exchanges between two players has really helped Bridges.

Speaker 1 And it's helped Bridges as helped the Knicks because he often is the guy who their small, the opponent's smallest, weakest defender is on.

Speaker 1 So just having him and Brunson have have a handoff or an off-ball screen increases the chances that you're going to get someone you want on Brunson on Brunson.

Speaker 1 And then you pivot into a pick and roll that is even more effective because teams can't switch it. If it's Cat, if it's Mitchell Robinson, whoever.

Speaker 1 And Cat had a play against Minnesota that really made me smile, Fred. It's the kind of thing he used to get in Minnesota a lot.
It's the kind of shot that Kevin Love used to get in Minnesota a lot.

Speaker 1 He caught the ball, center of the free throw line, a little bit above the free throw line.

Speaker 1 Deuce McBride came down from the right wing above the three-point line and set a ball, like a basically a ball screen for Kat, who dribbled backwards and moonwalked into a wide open three.

Speaker 1 It's like that's the kind of way for him to hunt shots like that when Mitchell Robinson might be on the floor. I don't know if he was on the floor for that shot.

Speaker 1 And it's not as simple as just screen, screen, screen, screen. It doesn't have to be a brutalizing post-up every time or a face-up drive every time.
Just something

Speaker 1 I'm on. I just like the way this team's playing.
And Brunson had a relocation three in the corner last night.

Speaker 1 I think it was a four-point play where he like cut as hard as you've ever seen Jalen Brunson cut from the kind of top of the wing all the way down to the corner. That's the kind of stuff.

Speaker 1 I just like the signs. Defense, we'll see.

Speaker 1 Talk to me about Cleveland. Cleveland is sort of like I'm just on TBD with them because Garland has come back and played only two games and he just unlocked so much for them.

Speaker 1 I trust the infrastructure of this team implicitly. Lonzo Fitt has been pretty good.
He's not making enough shots. Sam Merrill's on fire.
I think Garland will help the Mobley breakout happen.

Speaker 1 This team, I think, will be the number one seed in the East.

Speaker 1 They're just awesome. There's just something about the Knicks that I trust a tiny bit more in the playoffs than the Cavs, but I've watched the Cavs a bunch.

Speaker 1 I just am not reading a lot into anything I've seen quite so far.

Speaker 2 Yeah, Sam. It's really hard.
Like, they haven't had some of their creators. Not having Garland is such a big thing for them.
Sometimes I feel like people forget about him in the conversation

Speaker 2 because Donovan Mitchell is their big name guard, and Mitchell's obviously a great player, but he ceded so much of the offense last year to Garland to the point where it's like, you want to run a pick and roll?

Speaker 2 Darius Garland is going to be doing it more often. You're going to drive to the hoop, Darius Garland's doing it more often.
He is so, like, he's one of the best jump passers in the NBA.

Speaker 2 He's one of the best wraparound passers in the the NBA. He'll like spin around guys down low and be able to create to the corners or kick out for threes from there.

Speaker 2 And on a team that wants to take a ton of threes, that wants to play really fast, he's just so incredibly important. He looked good against Washington on Saturday night.

Speaker 2 He looked very comfortable and the Cavs scored like a million points in that game. But that was, you know, Washington.

Speaker 2 to be expected.

Speaker 2 I think they're going to be really, really good, and they are going to be fine. And Donovan Mitchell is just shooting the freaking hell out of the ball.

Speaker 2 The thing I wonder about them is like, who's going to be the fifth guy who they trust? Like, I wonder who Kenny Atkinson's fifth guy who we trusts is going to be.

Speaker 2 Because right now, DeAndre Hunter is the starter at the three.

Speaker 2 And one of the things they've done, which I think is really interesting, is they've kind of edited the offense from last year to a degree where like DeAndre Hunter came mid-season last year, and it was a lot of just kind of off-ball corner

Speaker 2 cut within the style of the offense, and that's it. And they're kind of giving the ball to DeAndre Hunter more now, encouraging him to drive at the hoop more.
He's getting the line more.

Speaker 2 He's playing a little more physical than he was after the trade last year. And like, he's not really hitting his threes now, but I think he's been pretty good in the games that he's played.

Speaker 2 But Sam Merrill is just freaking insane. I mean, he is shooting 55% from three.

Speaker 1 He's very,

Speaker 1 yeah.

Speaker 1 He's running a little more pick and roll, too, now and then.

Speaker 2 Totally. He has been insane.

Speaker 2 And one of the things that I have been really curious to see once they get like Garland and Mitchell going is the Garland-Mitchell-Lonzo lineups, which they're going to play.

Speaker 2 And that's going to be really interesting from a distribution standpoint. Like Lonzo is so good for their pace.
I mean,

Speaker 2 there was a play early in the season, probably.

Speaker 2 had to be preseason where Lonzo threw a pass to Dean Wade on like one of those classic Lonzo kick-ahead passes. And Dean Wade was streaking down the court and he was on the right wing.

Speaker 2 And Lonzo just threw it ahead to Dean Wade the second that he touched the rebound.

Speaker 2 And Dean Wade caught the ball and then almost stopped after he caught the ball because he was like, wait, I have the ball.

Speaker 2 And he had to like stop and gather himself for a second because Lonzo just gets those kick aheads honestly quicker than anybody else in the NBA, maybe other than Jokic.

Speaker 2 And

Speaker 2 they're still kind of getting to know each other in that sense, those little nuances they're trying to fit in. I wonder

Speaker 2 who that fifth guy is going to be they trust. They've kind of

Speaker 1 been a rotating guy for a little while. Struce has been out the whole stream.
Struce, too. He'll come back at some point.
Jalen Tyson has been sneakily very good for them as a spot starter.

Speaker 1 He started seven games so far.

Speaker 1 All of that does two things for them. Number one, it gives them some ability, although they're really lacking in picks, to package a couple guys together if they want an upgrade.

Speaker 1 Number two, you know, you mentioned who's the five that they trust.

Speaker 1 There might be matchups where Jared Allen isn't one of those five for the last four minutes of a game. Not because Jared Allen's not a great player.
He is. He's a very good player.

Speaker 1 Just because the matchup dictates that maybe they want to play a little smaller, a little faster, play mobile at the five. The more wings you have, particularly the more big wings like Hunter,

Speaker 1 the more ability you have to do that okay east power rankings are over we both have uh nicks number one all right ready five rapid fire things that are happening in the western conference that we just need to note ready yes number one

Speaker 1 the clippers are 26th in defense

Speaker 1 and three and six overall 21st in offense and are having the nightmare season so far nine games in that everyone feared they would have last year when they let Paul George walk and they didn't have last year.

Speaker 1 And now Kawhi's hurt again. He's missing a few games with an ankle injury.
God only knows what that ends up being.

Speaker 1 Harden and Beale are total turnstiles on defense in a way that is alarming, even by James Harden's prior track record.

Speaker 1 It has made me wonder, do they need to bring Beale off the bench and start when Kawhi comes back? Dunn, Hardin, Kawhi, John Collins, and Avitsa Zubach.

Speaker 1 I don't love the Collins-Zubats mix, but it's fine. Collins will make enough open threes, and it's been very good for them overall.

Speaker 1 You could throw Batum in there. I just think they're pretty cautious with how much they're going to play him.
He's been great. Bogdong Bodanovich is a zero.
He's hurt all the time. I miss him.

Speaker 1 I hope he gets healthy. And this team just looks completely broken defensively.
Their transition defense is a disaster.

Speaker 1 Their rim defense has not been as good as it was last year, although I think Zoo is starting to tick up to peak zoo form.

Speaker 1 They ran into a Phoenix team that's kind of feisty with Dylan Brooks back, and Phoenix swept them over the weekend. Mark Williams was doing some stuff.

Speaker 1 Jalen Green's back, and then he heard his hamstring again. I'm just, you know, it's early.

Speaker 1 The Clippers have a long track record of winning a lot of games with Kawhi Leonard and James Harden, or one of Kawhi Leonard and James Harden.

Speaker 1 We all knew they were old. We all knew they were slow.

Speaker 1 That is playing out more dramatically than I expected. I just, I haven't liked almost anything that I've seen from the Clippers so far.
Just three and six, awful defense.

Speaker 1 Jeff Van Gundy is about to murder someone on the bench.

Speaker 2 Yeah, and we've we've seen Chris Dunn move back into the starting lineup now, which is the intuitive move. And it also brings up the question with the Clippers of like,

Speaker 2 okay, how can this team actually help reach its best spot? Because right now they are just playing so slow, too. Everything they do is slow.

Speaker 1 They're gross to watch right now. They're gross.

Speaker 2 Everything they do is slow. And to be clear, like people talk about like, oh, you got to play with pace.
You want to play fast.

Speaker 2 And and like the stat pace has absolutely no correlation whatsoever to how good a team is.

Speaker 2 There are teams that play at a really slow pace that are really good, and there are teams that play at a really high pace that stink, and vice versa. It has no correlation whatsoever.

Speaker 2 But that being said, just everything the Clippers do is so slow. The way they get into their offense is so slow.

Speaker 2 I was looking at the numbers this morning, and they take 6.6 seconds to get into their first actions, according to Second Spectrum. 6.6 seconds.

Speaker 2 It's the second slowest offense in the league getting into their first actions. The slowest is Houston, who doesn't have a point guard.

Speaker 2 Like, it is just anything.

Speaker 1 I love this. It's Houston.
Hypnotic. I can't take my eyes off the Rockets.

Speaker 1 Houston? Pete, Houston.

Speaker 1 Honestly, the way I watch the Rockets sometimes is sometimes I have, you know, I widen my vision so that I...

Speaker 1 I'm vaguely aware of where the ball is and who might have it, but I'm really looking at Stephen Adams under the rim, just who's all he's doing is getting ready to get an offensive rebound, and 14 people are getting ready to box him out at the same time.

Speaker 1 The Clippers have not been good to start the season. They play the Bucs tonight, I think.
Cam Christie's getting involved all of a sudden.

Speaker 1 I mentioned, you mentioned Dunn being in the starting five. Again, Kawhi's hurt.

Speaker 1 The reason I mentioned Dunn and Collins is they are, I think, wary of starting Dunn and Derrick Jones Jr. together for what it does to their shooting, although Derrick Jones Jr.
has been good.

Speaker 1 They don't control their picks. You know, we know why.

Speaker 1 And so this is

Speaker 1 not, it's potentially kind of an ugly situation. And then the nexus of ugliness, that brings us to stat number two,

Speaker 1 which is that Mark Stein reported over the weekend that patients might be getting thin with Nico Harrison in Dallas.

Speaker 1 I don't really have a lot to add to that. I talked a lot about the Mads last week.
This is why I took the under on them. I'm going to be wrong about a bunch of teams.

Speaker 1 It looks like I'm going to be right about the Mavericks. And it's playing out the way that I feared it would play out with their offense and AD being injured and Lively also being injured.

Speaker 1 I didn't expect, but AD being injured is just something you have to factor in.

Speaker 1 I don't envy the life of anyone who works for the Dallas Mavericks or has worked for the Dallas Mavericks for the last year, because I can tell you,

Speaker 1 anytime any of those people go to a cocktail party, a dinner event, all they're asked about is the Luka trade all the time. We've talked about it a lot.

Speaker 1 And the vitriol from the fans is just going to get worse and worse and worse if

Speaker 1 this continues to go this way and it's none of it is about cooper flag who is doing fine for a rookie 18 year old in an uh unenviable situation

Speaker 2 there was

Speaker 2 really no winning with cooper flagged like a there's no rookie in the league who has maybe no young player in the league who has more pressure on him right coming into this year than Cooper Flagg, who kind of had to be the next Luca in order for people not to absolutely lose their freaking minds, right?

Speaker 2 And he's been fine. They are

Speaker 2 so dreadful offensively.

Speaker 2 They don't get good shots. They talk about operating really slow.
They operate really slow.

Speaker 1 Are they not 30th offensive? No, the Pacers are 30th offensive.

Speaker 2 The Pacers are 30th. I think they're 29th.

Speaker 1 29th, 29th. Above the Pacers who have no players left.
So congratulations on that. Right.

Speaker 2 The Pacers who are playing like, you know, three guys on hardship exceptions. Like,

Speaker 2 the no-point guard lineups are not working at all, and they're kind of the only option still, unless you're going to play D-Low 48 minutes.

Speaker 2 And even playing D-Low is like, that's a risky proposition in and of itself.

Speaker 2 Yeah, I don't have that much on Dallas other than the fact that

Speaker 2 this team's number one thing is size, right? And they can't get rebounds.

Speaker 1 Like,

Speaker 1 I don't really get how there is. A lot of their size is injured, right? We already mentioned Lively and Davis and Gafford was injured to start the season.

Speaker 1 Look, I just don't think they're going to be good. And

Speaker 1 they're going to try

Speaker 1 anyone in the crosshairs, should there be crosshairs, is going to try and say, well, we don't have Kyrie.

Speaker 1 When we said publicly, when Nico Harrison said publicly, people are going to see next year that we're competing for championships. That was supposed to involve Kyrie, and we don't have him yet.

Speaker 1 Just wait, just wait until we get him. It's going to be too late.
It's going to be too late to do anything this year by the time you get Kyrie back, whenever that is. The West ain't getting any

Speaker 1 easier next season. Kyrie's not getting any younger.
Anthony Davis isn't getting any younger.

Speaker 1 You don't have control of your draft picks for a whole bunch of years because of the team you built around Luca. You do have it this year, which is another reason I took the under.

Speaker 1 I don't know who's going to be around to make those decisions. I just, I know this.
Firing Nico Harris ain't going to do a lot other than make people feel better

Speaker 1 if that's where it ends up going.

Speaker 1 Storyline number three: uh, John Morant, another loss for the Grizzlies yesterday, three of 18 from the field, 19 points a game, 36% overall, 15% on threes, 45% on twos.

Speaker 1 It's not going great, and I don't have a lot to add to that. Thing number four:

Speaker 1 I just

Speaker 1 bring this up periodically, Fred.

Speaker 1 Jalen Williams hasn't played yet this season for the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Speaker 1 They have played 11 games.

Speaker 1 He negotiated and his agent negotiated all this all-NBA language into his contract where he gets more money if he makes third team all-NBA,

Speaker 1 a little bit more third team, second team, first team, he gets 30% max.

Speaker 1 The most he can play if he came back right now is 69 games. He has to play 65 to be eligible for all NBA.

Speaker 1 And I just want to say, I think it's BS that he even has to, I think having made all NBA in his third season already, he should have been able to bake that money in to the negotiations of the extension that he negotiated this past summer.

Speaker 1 And this is the only year that matters for this. This one year, if he makes all NBA, he gets X more millions of dollars.
Look, it's millions of dollars, top millions. I get it.
I get it.

Speaker 1 It's just to me, it's unfair that he is looking like a lock now to just not ever be eligible for this particular super match that he so carefully negotiated because he's just going to miss too many games.

Speaker 1 I think it's BS.

Speaker 2 It sucks for him. It sucks for him.

Speaker 2 He'll be fine.

Speaker 1 Yeah, it's fine.

Speaker 2 He'll be all right. He makes a lot more than us.

Speaker 1 He'll be good.

Speaker 1 But

Speaker 1 I just don't get it. What does he have to prove? You already proved it.
No, no, no.

Speaker 2 I think that rule exists, though, because

Speaker 2 that rule exists to kind of protect you against a sort of

Speaker 2 It wasn't the John Wall situation, but a sort of John Wall type situation where a guy like slides on the third team.

Speaker 1 That could easily happen in this particular year, too. The same thing can happen in any year.

Speaker 2 I know. It's just a precaution.
And it's to prevent a guy, you know, who maybe slides on third team and then falls off fourth year, and then you don't want to have to give it to him.

Speaker 2 Like, if he made first team, he would have gotten it. I'm with you, though.
I'm with you, though. Thing number five.
Phil Williams is obviously good enough for that.

Speaker 1 Thing number five, and we will wrap with this.

Speaker 1 The Spurs are seven and two. And thing number five is really two things.

Speaker 1 De'Aaron Fox is back and looked pretty damn good in his first game against the Pelicans.

Speaker 1 Another feisty performance by the Pelicans, who are 2-7 and then last in the West

Speaker 1 in a loss.

Speaker 1 Looked good.

Speaker 1 Good unlock a whole bunch of things for Wemby, especially with Dylan Harper hurt. Thing number two,

Speaker 1 Stefan Castle is blowing the hell up. And people need to start watching him now.
He's averaging 18, 7 assists, 5 boards, 50% shooting, shooting, only 24% on threes, 64% on twos.

Speaker 1 Mid-range game on point. He's had a bunch of like double-digit assist games recently.
He looks like he's jumping off a goddamn trampoline whenever he gets to the basket. And that combination,

Speaker 1 there's a lot of fretting about the Spurs of how are all these guards going to fit? What's the timetable until Castle and Harper are ready to take over?

Speaker 1 I think this is a great situation for the Spurs. Would they have liked to have gotten Fox on a little bit less than the max, a little bit more of a tradable contract? Sure.

Speaker 1 I think Fox showed you right away, game one, I introduce a lot of different antidotes to all the ways that teams are going to try to guard Wemby.

Speaker 1 And we know way number one is they're going to put their centers on Harrison Barnes.

Speaker 1 Like the Pelicans opened that game whenever, two days ago, with Looney on Harrison Barnes, Herb Jones on Fox and Sadiq Bay on Wemby.

Speaker 1 So we're going to switch every Fox Wemby pick and roll and hide our our centers over here. There's a lot of different antidotes to that.
We don't need to go through them all.

Speaker 1 The Spurs are experimenting with more and more and more of them, including having Wembanyama set pin downs on and off the ball, take pin downs, run pick and rolls, anything to get a different, smaller, or bigger defender on him.

Speaker 1 But one of the antidotes is just Fox being an awesome pick and roll player who can push the pace, who's a more reliable jump shooter, particularly in the mid-range, than, well, I mean, Castle's amazing in the mid-range so far.

Speaker 1 I think this is is a great problem to have for the spurs to the point that it's not even a problem and honestly they're seven and two

Speaker 1 this is getting scary and it's getting scary for teams like the clippers or the grizzlies or the lakers or whoever thinks that they were earmarked for a top six spot in the west you ain't earmarked anymore because this team is coming for one yeah i thought it looked great in that pelicans game and you know what it looked great and

Speaker 2 you know you talk about like i talked about like cleveland still kind of figuring some stuff out with Lonzo and that kind of stuff. Like,

Speaker 2 Wemby and Fox, this is the seventh game they've played together. And even though it looked great, even though it looked great, there was a play with about four minutes left in that game.

Speaker 2 And it's still a close game. It's like a four-point game or something.
And Fox is bringing the ball up the court on the right side. And Wemby comes up to set a screen for him.

Speaker 2 And just as Wemby goes to slip the screen, and doesn't actually set it, Fox picks up his dribble.

Speaker 2 And they clearly weren't thinking thinking the same thing. Wemby thought Fox was going to go.
Fox thought Wemby might hold the screen or

Speaker 2 thought maybe he'd have a jump shot. He ends up swinging it towards the middle.

Speaker 2 They weren't on the same page. That is fine.
They have played together seven times.

Speaker 2 It looked great. And they're still kind of going through those sorts of like, oh, okay, I'm learning your habits still.

Speaker 2 Once they learn each other's habits, and these are both smart players who play really freaking hard, like really hard. Once they learn each other's habits, and I have no doubt that they are going to,

Speaker 2 that is going to be a devastating pick and roll combination, the two of them. It's going to be absolutely devastating.

Speaker 2 And when you have Castle on the second side to be able to run another action as well, his floor game has been so much better. Oh my goodness.
That's his biggest improvement in my mind.

Speaker 2 He had 14 assists in that Pelicans game.

Speaker 1 Defensively, I didn't even mention his defense. He's going to be a monster on defense.
I could not be higher on Steph Castle.

Speaker 2 Yeah. I mean, he looks awesome.
I mean,

Speaker 2 this team is legitimately good. Like, they are good.

Speaker 1 Well, he really is. Here's some other things that have happened for them.
Harrison Barnes has more left in the tank than I thought.

Speaker 1 Devin Vassell is solid. I've been a little disappointed by him so far.

Speaker 1 I'd like him to take one more dribble sometimes on the pick and roll when he's got a guy in his hippie. He hit a floater like that against the Pelicans.
I'd like to see a more of that, but he's fine.

Speaker 1 I'd like to see a little more defense from him.

Speaker 1 Sohan just came back. They're playing him at center because Cornette's been injured.
Olinick just came back. See how much he plays.
Cornette will come back.

Speaker 1 Kel DeJohnson is delivering everything they need of him off the bench. Ditto for Julian Champagne, who can start in a pinch.
And

Speaker 1 I just think the collective gravity of Fox's speed and Wembanyama rolling to the rim is going to be so hard for defenses, even when your game plan is to switch.

Speaker 1 And even when you have the personnel to switch, you're so scared of Fox's speed and you're so scared of Wemby rolling to the rim that you're going to find yourself in some compromising situations.

Speaker 1 And let me tell you, when they get you in a situation where you have your center on Wembanyama, then they're going to go right to that pick and roll combination and you're going to be toast.

Speaker 1 There was one segment of that game against the Pelicans where they knew, we know what you're trying to do, putting your wings on Wemby. So we're going to take Barnes out.

Speaker 1 We're going to take Sohan out. We're going to take Keldon Johnson out.
We're going to play four guards who can shoot threes. Where are you going to put Kavan Looney? They put him on Lindy Waters.

Speaker 1 It was a disaster. Then they surrendered and put him on Wemby.
They immediately ran a Fox-Wemby pick and roll. The Pelicans didn't want to switch.

Speaker 1 They switched because they were so scared of the aforementioned gravity. They posted Wemby on a guard, double team, Fox kickout three.
You can see the roadmap to this team becoming a really good team.

Speaker 1 They obviously have a bunch of trade assets. You know who played well in that game? Fred Katz?

Speaker 1 Who's that? Derek Queen.

Speaker 1 Kind of like Derek Queen.

Speaker 2 I mean, I talked about young players with the most pressure on them. Maybe Derek Queen is the young player with the most pressure pressure.

Speaker 1 It's not his fault. It's not his fault.

Speaker 2 No, it's not his fault at all.

Speaker 2 And he looks like he's going to be a good player.

Speaker 1 But he's got a lot of pressure on him. To his credit, he seems to be enjoying it.
He plays with a lot of spirit and positivity that I like.

Speaker 1 He's a very good passer.

Speaker 1 And

Speaker 1 the issue is he's played a lot of center with as much spacing as the Pelicans can muster around him. What happens when Zion comes back? I don't know.

Speaker 1 I know the Hawks are scoreboard watching every game.

Speaker 1 That concludes my five things that are happening in the Western Conference. Fred Katz from the Athletic.
What do we got working on this week? Where can we find you? Katz and Shoot podcast.

Speaker 1 What else we got going on?

Speaker 2 I'll have my weekly notebook out on Friday. I'll have another story

Speaker 2 Wednesday. I think we're doing it.
So you can go look out for that. You can subscribe to my podcast, Katzandchute, patreon.com slash cats and shoot.
And

Speaker 2 yeah, that's all. Thank you for having me.

Speaker 1 I will see you soon at the world's most famous arena, I'm sure. Fred Katz from the Athletic, Cats and Shoe Podcast.
Thank you, sir.

Speaker 2 Find me on Friends there.

Speaker 1 All right, that's it for the Zach Lowe Show today. Thank you to Fred Katz from the Athletic.
Subscribe to his podcast, The Cats and Shoe Podcast on Patreon.

Speaker 1 Thanks to Jesse, Jonathan, and Mike on production. We'll see you later this week.
We're heading to Minnesota. We're taking the Zach Lowe Show live to Minnesota on Wednesday.

Speaker 1 We're going to have some special guests, and then I might pop back on Thursday for sort of a more traditional, just quickie podcast. If anything happens, we'll see.

Speaker 1 Thank you to everyone who listens, watches the Zach Lowe Show. See you soon.

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