Acting on uncertainty

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Speaker 11 Capricious.

Speaker 13 Adjective given to sudden and unaccountable changes of mood or behavior.

Speaker 16 Also, the trade policy of the United States of America.

Speaker 6 From American public media, this is Marketplace.

Speaker 14 In Los Angeles, I'm Kyle Risdahl.

Speaker 18 It is Wednesday, today, the 9th of April.

Speaker 17 Good as always to have you along, everybody.

Speaker 6 I don't.

Speaker 6 What...

Speaker 5 I mean,

Speaker 12 where do you start on a newsday

Speaker 16 like today?

Speaker 23 We started around here with Chad Baume.

Speaker 24 At least, that was the plan, anyway.

Speaker 20 Chad's a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, and we had him lined up to talk about trade and tariffs and what the what.

Speaker 22 And we're going to play that because it's a good interview.

Speaker 25 But, well, you'll see.

Speaker 22 First question to Chad was a pretty basic one.

Speaker 10 Are trade deficits, contra to what the president believes, are they inherently bad?

Speaker 26 Nope.

Speaker 28 It's essentially the United States is buying things. So other countries are willing to sell us.

Speaker 26 stuff.

Speaker 27 And the match on the other side isn't necessarily that they just want to buy our goods.

Speaker 31 They may want to invest in companies that are producing things in the United States,

Speaker 28 or they might want to buy stocks and bonds in the United States.

Speaker 27 So running a trade deficit in general is not a terrible thing for the U.S.

Speaker 26 economy.

Speaker 13 The subtext of what you said there is important.

Speaker 19 We take our dollars and we send them overseas and overseas companies send us their stuff.

Speaker 20 But then they also take those dollars and a lot of them come back into this economy.

Speaker 26 That's exactly right.

Speaker 28 It's an open loop kind of system.

Speaker 31 And

Speaker 31 it's worked pretty well.

Speaker 32 Doesn't mean it always works and that there aren't some challenges sometimes associated with trade.

Speaker 27 But I think the ones that President Trump has identified, the trade imbalance and bilateral trade imbalances in particular with just specific countries is probably not the biggest problem for the United States to be worrying about.

Speaker 9 Aaron Powell, Trevor Bowie, yeah, we should be clear here, right?

Speaker 17 What the President is going after here is bilateral trade imbalances and thus imbalancing the entire global economy.

Speaker 34 On the issue of those dollars coming back and the circular loop thing, what happens, as is now happening, when tariff rates go up so quickly, so

Speaker 19 haphazardly, and barriers to trade are erected? Then what happens?

Speaker 27 Aaron Powell, that's really what we don't know.

Speaker 26 So I think, you know, it is important to talk a little bit about.

Speaker 26 It really is.

Speaker 31 We're in uncharted territory here.

Speaker 27 But part of this is the sheer size of what the Trump administration has done in terms of tariffs.

Speaker 30 So everybody remembers the first Trump administration and the trade war with China there. Well, in that instance, tariffs went from, you know, on the U.S.

Speaker 27 side, 3% or so to 19%. Seemed like a lot at the time.

Speaker 27 But over the first two months of this administration, they've gone from 20%

Speaker 27 to now overnight, they are now over 100%,

Speaker 27 right? And so this is just enormous.

Speaker 30 And we've never seen anything like this before.

Speaker 35 They cover everything.

Speaker 30 The last time around, the tariffs that were, the Trump administration applied went on over a period of 16 and 18 months. This time around, they've gone on in two months, right?

Speaker 27 So the speed is also incredibly important.

Speaker 30 And it's really unclear what is going to happen, what the impact of this is going to be on the macroeconomy, on

Speaker 29 people like you and me, the things that we buy, as well as the companies out there that are operating in the economy, too.

Speaker 18 The president says that what he is going to do is reestablish manufacturing in the United States.

Speaker 34 Is this going to get us there?

Speaker 33 It's hard to tell.

Speaker 27 Certainly if he erects barriers that are so high and he's on the path here and he says that they're permanent, Americans are going to want to continue to buy stuff.

Speaker 30 And so, if it's impossible for Americans like me and you to be able to buy things from China or Mexico or Europe or Japan or anywhere else anymore, then yes, we will make it here.

Speaker 26 The challenge will be it will just be a lot more expensive.

Speaker 27 The second, of course, is there may be a lot more manufacturing activity taking place here in the United States, but we're not really sure if there's going to be a lot of jobs associated with that, right?

Speaker 31 Companies are looking to cut costs.

Speaker 30 They might want to do automation, robots, AI, you name it, right?

Speaker 27 So it's not necessarily a jobs gainer as well.

Speaker 20 I don't want to pay $9,000 for an iPhone, Chad.

Speaker 28 I don't think any of us do.

Speaker 26 But the truth of the matter is we're a lot closer to $9,000 for an iPhone today than we were a week ago, and certainly that we were.

Speaker 26 before January 20th.

Speaker 23 Chad Bound at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

Speaker 13 Chad, thanks a a lot. I appreciate your time.

Speaker 31 Thanks for having me.

Speaker 12 So that was that.

Speaker 13 Interview was in the can. I left the studio, walked back toward my office, checked my phone along the way, and saw that everything had changed.

Speaker 16 So we got Chad back on the phone.

Speaker 34 All right, Chad, you let me know when you're ready. We're going to bang this out again.

Speaker 26 Yes.

Speaker 5 All right.

Speaker 34 I frankly don't know how we're going to put this together for air, but I'm just going to throw you the question and then

Speaker 34 we're going to figure it out, all right?

Speaker 24 We'll figure it out. All right, you roll on your end?

Speaker 5 Yep. All right.

Speaker 18 So, this is one of those, this just in kind of situations.

Speaker 34 I'm going to read you something that the President of the United States posted on his social media account this morning, and then I need your response.

Speaker 17 It's a long one. I'm going to read part of it.

Speaker 13 Based on the lack of respect that China has shown to the world's markets, I am hereby raising the tariff charged to China by the United States of America to 125% effective immediately.

Speaker 24 And then he goes on and on and on.

Speaker 21 And down at the end, he says, I have authorized a 90-day pause and a substantially lowered reciprocal tariff on other countries during this period of 10%

Speaker 10 effective immediately.

Speaker 13 Thank you for your attention to this matter, says the president.

Speaker 10 What do you say to that?

Speaker 26 Wow.

Speaker 26 Yeah.

Speaker 32 Well, I guess there's still some questions as to what he actually means, and we'll wait for the legal details from the lawyers to tell us that.

Speaker 30 But it could be that the initial 10% tariffs that went on everybody on April 5th, those are going to stay on.

Speaker 27 And that the additional tariffs that went on countries with which the United States has a trade deficit this week, those tariffs wouldn't go on or they would get rolled back.

Speaker 27 But with the exception of China, and China gets this special treatment. You know, the tariffs he had already posed were already over 100%.

Speaker 32 I guess he's going to raise them up to 125%.

Speaker 26 So even further.

Speaker 18 Last thing, Chad, and then I'll let you go for reels.

Speaker 34 You're a foreign country trying to do business with the United States, and you see what can be characterized at best as arbitrary and capricious tariff policy.

Speaker 18 What's your reaction?

Speaker 27 If I'm a government policymaker, it's really hard to strike deals with the United States because you don't know if what the president is offering you today is going to stick tomorrow.

Speaker 27 And then if you're a foreign company trying to make a decision about where you want to invest around the world, boy, the United States looks like a really uncertain market at the moment, too.

Speaker 10 Chad Bound at Peterson.

Speaker 34 Chad, thanks a bunch. I appreciate your time.

Speaker 31 Thanks for having me.

Speaker 16 It is critically important to point out here that there are still tariffs of plenty being imposed by the Trump administration, but

Speaker 16 Wall Street did not pay that.

Speaker 24 No, never mind. We will have the details when we do the numbers.

Speaker 17 we've spent an inordinate amount of time on the bond market the past couple of days.

Speaker 20 Treasury bonds, corporate bonds, today higher education, bonds issued by small colleges and big universities for capital projects and long-term expenses.

Speaker 9 Bloomberg reports college bond issuance nearly doubled 2023 to 2024, and this year they're on track to issue even more.

Speaker 34 Marketplace Adjustin Ho, looking into what's going on there.

Speaker 37 One of the reasons colleges have been issuing new bonds over the last few years is to address a growing challenge, declining enrollment.

Speaker 38 Some of the schools are trying to retool themselves and change their academic offering.

Speaker 37 Pat Luby is senior municipal strategist with Credit Sites. He says schools are borrowing money to create new academic programs, update their facilities, and build new ones.

Speaker 38 These are capital-intensive endeavors, and it takes multiple years to not only get the facilities up and running, but also to get students in there, to attract students.

Speaker 37 But this year, colleges are facing a new challenge, the Trump administration.

Speaker 37 It's already halted or threatened to halt federal funding to several universities, including Cornell, Northwestern, and Columbia. Luby says universities rely on those funds for research.

Speaker 38 So especially for schools that have large medical programs, teaching hospitals, you know, even postgraduate programs where they're providing medical degrees and fellowships.

Speaker 37 That's why many big universities, including Harvard and Princeton, are issuing more bonds as a buffer, says Liz Clark with the National Association of College and University Business Officers.

Speaker 39 They're going to issue them so that they can pull together the resources they need to provide the experience that students are looking for and that scientists need.

Speaker 37 Last month, the ratings agency Moody's lowered its outlook for the higher education sector from stable to negative.

Speaker 37 Moody's pointed to those federal cutbacks, uncertainty over student aid, and the shaky economy.

Speaker 37 But Ryan Henry, municipal strategist at FHN Financial, says those factors don't threaten every college equally.

Speaker 40 There's a bifurcation between the haves and have-nots, and it's usually due to size.

Speaker 37 Henry says big research universities that issue bonds have plenty of resources, including multi-billion dollar endowments. That makes their bonds less risky, which keeps a lid on interest rates.

Speaker 37 But smaller universities don't have that cushion, which means they'll have to pay more interest on their bonds.

Speaker 40 Just like anything where if someone with a credit score of 800 goes to get a loan versus someone with a credit score of 600, there's access to credit. It's just at a different price.

Speaker 37 As a result, many smaller colleges might decide that those higher borrowing costs aren't worth it. I'm Justin Howe for Marketplace.

Speaker 12 It's important to say outright here, echoing what Chad Bound said, that despite the president's about face on tariffs this morning, it's not like all the uncertainty out there has suddenly gone away.

Speaker 36 And actually, it might even be worse now.

Speaker 13 That brings us to Delta Airlines, which back in January had said that 2025 was going to be its best year yet.

Speaker 12 2025, however, clearly had other plans.

Speaker 17 This morning, Delta pulled that prediction, forward guidance, it's called, and the company didn't offer any new ones.

Speaker 12 It is weird, but not unprecedented, for companies to respond to market uncertainty with a big,

Speaker 10 I don't know, Marketplaces Kelly Wells has more.

Speaker 41 The last time this happened was about five years ago. The economy was in uncharted territory.
I'll give you one guess why.

Speaker 35 This is very much what happened during the COVID pandemic, where companies were highly uncertain about what their earnings would look like.

Speaker 41 Jamie Cox is managing partner of Harris Financial Group. He says choosing not to issue guidance is the responsible thing to do.

Speaker 35 Because the street is going to punish you more for trying to predict your earnings path when it's unclear.

Speaker 41 Predicting earnings correctly is sometimes even more important than the earnings themselves, says Eric Gordon, who teaches at the University of Michigan's Ross School of Business.

Speaker 42 If a company made a dollar a share in profit last year and makes a dollar 25 this year,

Speaker 42 but predicted that it would make $1.30, its stock will get pounded.

Speaker 41 He calls these predictions an art form because it's so costly to make a prediction that a company fails to meet.

Speaker 42 The art form is to predict a number and beat it by just a little bit so that it looks like you know how to make predictions, but the company is doing especially well.

Speaker 41 The recent back and forth on tariffs have certainly made for a more tumultuous economy that's difficult to predict.

Speaker 41 But Shiraz Meehan with Zach's Investment Research says this cagey behavior started months ago.

Speaker 43 As we got going this year, January, February, March, that growth, particularly consumer spending, was decelerating.

Speaker 41 He says that could have been tariff fears or the recent slowdown in consumer spending. But now?

Speaker 43 The current bout of uncertainty and the resulting announcements we are seeing from companies, that's 100% tariff-centric.

Speaker 41 Meehan says it's most likely companies that rely on international trade that will avoid future predictions. So he says, look to retail companies to join the list next.

Speaker 41 I'm Kayleigh Wells for Marketplace.

Speaker 20 Coming up.

Speaker 45 I'm willing to spend to feel that connection with the rest of the world.

Speaker 22 Can you buy happiness?

Speaker 16 First, though, let's do the numbers.

Speaker 14 Yeah, we call this the sad happy music because read the room, gang.

Speaker 13 Dow industrial is up 2,962 points today, 7 and 9 tenths percent, 40,608.

Speaker 13 NASDAQ, 1,857 points to the good, 12 and 2 tenths percent, 17,124. The S ⁇ P, 500, 474 points up, 9.5%, 54, and 56 there.

Speaker 14 Goldman Sachs released a revised 90-day forecast after the president announced a 90-day pause on new tariffs, as we said.

Speaker 12 It has downgraded the probability of a recession.

Speaker 13 This is a a downgrade, remember, to 45%.

Speaker 12 Gold prices are back up.

Speaker 14 Gold futures trading at about $3,100 a Troy ounce.

Speaker 12 Bond prices fell. Yield on the 10-year T-note rose to 4.32%.

Speaker 13 Bonds overnight is a whole different thing, man.

Speaker 34 But the program is only half an hour. You're listening to the marketplace.

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Speaker 13 This is Marketplace.

Speaker 17 I'm Kai Rizdahl.

Speaker 12 Depending on which administration official you listen to, the Trump tariffs are either supposed to raise revenue or protect American industries and reshore jobs.

Speaker 13 Setting aside for the moment that those are mutually exclusive goals, the truth of it is that ultimately some things might be reshored and others might not, but there is going to be a price to pay either way.

Speaker 18 Marketplace is Supreme Benishore has that one.

Speaker 7 Benzene is a clear liquid made mostly out of carbon. Each molecule is like a little ring.

Speaker 49 This is a building block chemical.

Speaker 7 Al Greenwood is deputy news editor for ICIS, a market intelligence firm for the chemicals industry.

Speaker 49 It's used to make plastics used for picnic dinnerware, plastic plates, engineering plastics used in automobiles, washing machines.

Speaker 7 The U.S. is a plastics powerhouse.
It's the largest exporter of polyethylene plastic in the world.

Speaker 49 The U.S. consumes more benzene than it produces.

Speaker 7 So it imports some from South Korea, which this morning had a 25% tariff on it. Now that's temporarily down to 10%.

Speaker 7 But if one goal of these moving tariffs is to reshore U.S. production, Greenwood says that's not going to happen with benzene because of how it's made.

Speaker 49 Benzene is a byproduct of refineries mostly,

Speaker 49 and nobody is going to expand a refinery just to make more benzene.

Speaker 7 You don't build a chick hatchery just to get more eggshells. So if you want more, you import it.
Now with potentially higher tariffs.

Speaker 49 Companies that buy this benzene, they're going to have to eat the costs.

Speaker 7 So tariffs aren't likely to bring new benzene jobs. They're just a new cost.
The Tax Foundation estimates Liberation Day tariffs would cost U.S. consumers $1,500 per household this year.

Speaker 7 And there are other products that, like benzene, we're going to pay more for, but that are just probably not going to move here.

Speaker 50 We do not expect that industries will reshore if the labor calculation and the capital outlay at the beginning does not make sense.

Speaker 7 Erin McLaughlin is a senior economist at the conference board.

Speaker 50 Sneakers, textiles, things that don't require advanced or smart manufacturing, but are fairly labor-intensive and are fairly low-dollar.

Speaker 7 What could come back? Or otherwise put, what jobs would consumers be paying higher prices in order to bring back?

Speaker 52 Light industry, such as semiconductors, so a lot of automation and high-tech manufacturing.

Speaker 7 Christopher Tang is a professor at the UCLA Anderson School of Management. He says pharmaceuticals can come back too.

Speaker 52 Because the footprint is not high and also the physical labor content is also not high.

Speaker 7 But unlike with benzene, there's a price we don't easily see. Using blanket tariffs to resurrect jobs in one industry can cost jobs in another.
That's what happened last time.

Speaker 53 Industries pulling back on hiring.

Speaker 7 Katie Russ is a professor of economics at UC Davis. She crunched some numbers from when President Trump applied tariffs to steel and aluminum in his first administration.

Speaker 53 Like, if you squinted, you could see, you know, maybe a thousand new jobs in steel production, but there were about 75,000 fewer manufacturing jobs in firms where steel or aluminum were an input into production.

Speaker 7 The Tax Foundation estimates the original Liberation Day tariffs would have cost the economy the equivalent of 605,000 jobs. In New York, I'm Sabri Benishore for Marketplace.

Speaker 18 Whatever happens with tariff and trade policy, and if today teaches us anything, it's that anything can happen, good or bad.

Speaker 13 But whatever does wind up happening, consumers are going to be on the receiving end of it.

Speaker 10 Higher prices, slower growth, all those changes trickle down.

Speaker 20 But at the same time, you kind of run this economy.

Speaker 13 Regular listeners have heard me say it, 70% of gross domestic product is spending by or on behalf of consumers.

Speaker 21 So today we're launching a new series called Lived Economies.

Speaker 5 Marketplace's Kristen Schwab is going to be following a group of consumers, people, right, to get a better sense of how they see this economy and how they're going to navigate it as it changes.

Speaker 9 Here's our first story.

Speaker 25 When I think back on all the time I've spent reporting on how people feel about the economy, I often replay this one piece of tape in my head.

Speaker 25 It's from a story I did a couple years ago talking to consumers about the pandemic. And frankly, it's a little dark.
Here's that story.

Speaker 54 So many people lost loved ones during that pandemic and they were saving money and they had plans and they didn't get to do those things.

Speaker 40 The fact that we're getting closer to death every day, whether we like it or not. What am I saving for?

Speaker 45 I want to feel as little isolated as possible, and I'm willing to spend to feel that connection with the rest of the world.

Speaker 25 These are not fun memories, but sometimes it feels like we've filed those pandemic years away. We've forgotten how they turned our world and our economy upside down.

Speaker 25 And ever since, the economy has not been behaving the way we'd expect. The consumer spending that happened after businesses reopened wasn't just pent-up demand.
Inflation wasn't transitory.

Speaker 25 And so far, the Federal Reserve has managed to tackle inflation without tanking the economy, mostly because consumers, to the surprise of economists, keep spending.

Speaker 25 Here's Wendy Edelberg at the Brookings Institution.

Speaker 55 You know, it feels a little bit like right now we've thrown all the data up in the air like a deck of cards. And I'm seeing where each individual card has landed on

Speaker 55 the table. And it's just, it's super confusing.
Everything,

Speaker 55 everything is up for grabs.

Speaker 25 This gets at something that's been nagging at me for years. Maybe data can only get us so far.
Take consumer confidence surveys.

Speaker 25 For years, they've been showing people are grumpy despite all the markers of a strong economy.

Speaker 55 I think that they were answering those questions, reflecting anxiety on a million different fronts.

Speaker 55 And I think expecting people to parse out all of those different feelings that they had when they answered surveys. It was just an unreasonable expectation.

Speaker 55 And I think it just means that we weren't learning a ton.

Speaker 25 So I'm here to learn in a less data-driven way by having lots of conversations with different consumers.

Speaker 25 Over the next few months, we'll hear from a group of people I'll check in with regularly about how they see the economy.

Speaker 40 I've got a house.

Speaker 40 I've got my finances taken care of.

Speaker 48 I can continue on doing what I'm doing and be happy.

Speaker 40 I'm worried for my children.

Speaker 25 We'll hear from people from different backgrounds of different ages and at different life stages on how they spend.

Speaker 44 I am fairly responsible with my money. I'm not like making it rain at the target dollar spot, but I have nothing to show for it.

Speaker 25 The goal is to better understand how Americans feel about the economy and their place in it.

Speaker 3 On paper, you know, many people would think, oh, this person is successful.

Speaker 3 So that should equate to financial success. And it's, you know, not necessarily the case.

Speaker 25 That was David Rames in New Hampshire, Ashley Ayala in Texas, and Karima Dassey in California, a few of the folks I'll be following.

Speaker 25 I think you'll hear a bit of yourself in some of their stories, and also learn about people whose financial situations you have less in common with.

Speaker 25 Because we are in the midst of another period of dynamic change. The Trump administration's administration's tariff policy and major government cuts are overhauling the economy.

Speaker 25 The stock market is seeing wild swings. Economists have upped the odds of a recession.
And one way to understand how all of this is going to play out is by zooming in on consumers.

Speaker 25 Instead of collecting data, we'll collect stories. Because with so much happening right now, I think it's time for an experiment.

Speaker 25 Let's document the consumer economy a bit differently this time around.

Speaker 25 I'm Kristen Schwab for Marketplace.

Speaker 13 This final note on the way out today: it is entirely possible that the most relieved man in Washington, D.C.

Speaker 24 right now is one Jerome Powell.

Speaker 13 Next Fed meeting is the first week of May, and the 90-day tariff pause has taken some, but just some,

Speaker 18 of the pressure off the central bank.

Speaker 13 The minutes of their March meeting came out today.

Speaker 17 Here's the money quote for you.

Speaker 13 Participants judged that inflation was likely to be boosted this year by the effects of higher tariffs, although significant uncertainty surrounded the magnitude and persistence of such effects.

Speaker 10 You can say that again.

Speaker 14 Our media production team includes Brian Allison, Jake Cherry, Justin Dueller, Drew Jostad, Gary O'Keefe, Charles Linthorpe, Juan College Sorado, and Becca Wineman.

Speaker 14 Jeff Peters is the manager of Media Production.

Speaker 11 And I'm Kyle Risdahl.

Speaker 17 We will see you tomorrow, everybody.

Speaker 10 This is 8 p.m.

Speaker 46 You've finally broken loose from work. Three friends, one tea time,

Speaker 46 and then the text. Honey, there's water in the basement.

Speaker 46 Not exactly how you pictured your Saturday. That's when you call us, Cincinnati Insurance.
We always answer the call because real protection means showing up, even when things are in the rough.

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