Auto repair shops struggle under Trump's tariffs

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Speaker 2 On the program today, the past five days in this economy, because, you know, it's Friday. Then we got to talk tariffs, but then a little ultimate frisbee from American Public Media.

Speaker 2 This is Marketplace.

Speaker 2 In Los Angeles, I'm Kai Rizdahl. It is Friday today.
This one is the 20th of June. Good as always to have you along, everybody.
Big week this week. You know, geopolitics, of course.

Speaker 2 The Federal Reserve, also, of course. And so, of course, we've got Courtney Brown from Axios here, also CD Breddy, the Washington Bureau Chief at MSNBC.

Speaker 6 Hey, you too.

Speaker 6 Hey, Kai. Hey, Kai.

Speaker 2 Courtney, let me begin with you, and we'll talk Jay Powell first, I suppose.

Speaker 2 Fed meeting this week, the chair came out and in his press conference said what we all expected him to say, which is things are fine. We need more data.
No change in rates, obviously.

Speaker 2 But then he kept saying

Speaker 2 the committee, the Federal Upper Market Committee, believes it is well-positioned, in essence, to see what's going to happen down the road. What exactly does well-positioned mean in your eyes?

Speaker 7 I've also been asking that question.

Speaker 7 It's kind of this phrase that he said quite often during this week's press conference, but he's been saying it before. And I kind of just squint and lean forward when I hear him say that.

Speaker 7 Here's what I think it means.

Speaker 7 I think he's trying to say that if there were to be signs of a shock on the inflation side of their mandate or the employment side of their mandate, they are,

Speaker 7 oh God, well positioned.

Speaker 8 Right, right, right.

Speaker 2 But wait, you can't use a word in a definition to define what the word means.

Speaker 7 They are in a good spot. He sees policy as in a really good

Speaker 7 spot. How's that? And, you know, this is a complicated question because the Fed, as Chair Powell said this week, is supposed to be forward-looking.

Speaker 7 But if you are waiting for some sort of sign that the economy is deteriorating and then you're

Speaker 7 so-called positioned, well-positioned to respond, like that is naturally backward-looking. You're naturally going to be late.
maybe.

Speaker 7 So that's the big question. All right.

Speaker 2 Said, let me ask this. I'm going to ask you the same question.
I'm going to ask it a different way. In my eyes, the Federal Reserve is between a rock and a hard place, right? It's between

Speaker 2 tariff price increases and potentially significant inflation triggers that it knows are coming versus what that might do to, number one, economic growth and number two, the labor market.

Speaker 2 So how can they possibly be well positioned if they are in between a rock and a hard place? That's like, by definition, a bad position.

Speaker 10 You know, the word Jay Powell used was humble. Like you have to be humble about how you look through a moment like this.
And

Speaker 10 he thinks he's going to learn more over the summer. I was waiting for him to just say, in two weeks, we'll learn more and see how that plays out

Speaker 10 on the other side of town.

Speaker 8 But

Speaker 10 he has to be prepared to respond once the data comes in.

Speaker 10 And we've seen jobless claims rise a little bit, but we haven't really seen any meaningful impact from all of this because when we got the April 2nd big Liberation Day tariffs, everybody realized that

Speaker 10 the sky would be falling. And then, when you pull back from it to significant but not disastrous tariffs, what does that look like when it's more of a slow burn?

Speaker 10 And that's what he's got to be thinking in his head. And obviously, when the Middle East could be on fire again, he's got to be thinking, like, oh, God,

Speaker 10 what is this going to actually lead to over the course of several months?

Speaker 2 Yeah.

Speaker 2 Courtney, I want to follow up on a question that your colleague Neil Irwin asked the chair. It was late in the meeting, and Neil

Speaker 2 asked Powell about economic data.

Speaker 2 And we've seen in the past couple of weeks the folks who collect the CPI data say, you know, what we're going to stop collections in like in Provo, Utah and Buffalo, New York, and some other places.

Speaker 2 And that's, you know, part of its budget constraints, and part of it's just people not responding as frequently as they used to in as high percentages as they used to to survey questions.

Speaker 8 And Neil said, look,

Speaker 6 how big a deal is this for you?

Speaker 2 And this is part of what Powell said.

Speaker 12 It helps, It not just doesn't help the Fed. It helps the government.
It helps Congress. It helps the executive branch.

Speaker 13 More importantly, really, it helps businesses.

Speaker 12 They need to know what's going on in the economy.

Speaker 12 The United States has been a leader for many, many years in this whole project of measuring and understanding what's happening in our very large and dynamic economy. And

Speaker 12 I hate to see us cutting back on that.

Speaker 2 So I want to be clear here. There are no indications as of yet that the data is being manipulated or otherwise shortchanged.
but we are collecting less of it, Courtney.

Speaker 2 And I want you to help folks understand why that matters.

Speaker 7 Well, less is obviously not more. And as Chair Powell said in the press conference, in a very passionate and by my account, one of the longest answers he gave at the press conference: there are

Speaker 7 so many economic decisions that are made

Speaker 7 based on the consumer price index or the producer price index or jobs data. And

Speaker 7 I think that

Speaker 7 there has been worry about the state of government-produced economic data for some time now. I think you mentioned the declining response rates.
That's a problem.

Speaker 7 I learned that when they say

Speaker 7 they are

Speaker 7 guessing what the inflation data might mean.

Speaker 7 I mean,

Speaker 7 making it up is another way to do that using smart guesstimates. But that's worrying because what if they're wrong? What if they're wrong and

Speaker 7 inflation is hotter or crueler than they say because they don't have the resources to collect data like they used to? I mean,

Speaker 7 the Fed and other policymakers could be caught on the back foot. So I think there is worry among economists that the quality of the official government data isn't going to be as good as it usually is.

Speaker 7 And what kind of private sector data can help supplement that?

Speaker 2 Right. Supplement there being the key word, right, Courtney?

Speaker 8 It's not like it's going to be able to replace it.

Speaker 7 Definitely not. And

Speaker 7 I was speaking to an economist this week who mentioned that the problem is that after the pandemic, there was this huge demand for data and private sector started opening their books, essentially, letting the public in on what they're seeing is going on in the economy.

Speaker 7 And they're starting, they've started to pull that back a little as the pandemic gets further behind us.

Speaker 7 And so, in some ways, there is more private sector data than ever before, but in other ways, you know, businesses that might have been willing to show consumers, policymakers, what's going on before, they're not doing that as much.

Speaker 7 Right.

Speaker 2 Sadip, the last minute of the segment goes to you, and it's pretty straightforward. Why Why aren't we seeing those things that the Fed is looking for in the hard data?

Speaker 2 We've been waiting now since like April-ish for real, tangible, concrete signs, and we're not seeing it.

Speaker 2 And I want to know why.

Speaker 10 This is why everybody needs to be humble.

Speaker 10 We spent years wondering how sky-high interest rates would whack the economy, and they're not really that much lower in the mortgage market and borrowing costs.

Speaker 10 And it has not really dealt the blow that people thought that we're seeing some noisy data retail sales I think building permits have shown some some trouble but jobless claims being slightly higher but not seriously higher I think it really plays to the the things that we've learned since the pandemic in 2021 and 2022.

Speaker 10 Businesses had so much difficulty readjusting when they did layoffs, when they cut back.

Speaker 10 They don't want to make any fast moves, especially when some of this is driven by policy, either Fed policy or Trump policy, and you never know when that's going to change and actually make your life a little bit easier.

Speaker 10 And so, that is the caution that's driving everybody away from doing anything crazy right now.

Speaker 2 We are waiting and seeing. Sadib Reddy, he runs things in Washington and MSNBC.
Courtney Brown is at Axios. Thanks, you two.

Speaker 7 Thanks.

Speaker 2 Have a nice weekend. Wall Street finished the day and the week, actually.
Pretty close to even. Details, numbers, when we get there.

Speaker 2 Whichever way the Fed goes on interest rates is, of course, going to depend in a large measure on which way the labor market goes. So far, so good on that.

Speaker 2 But antennae are up for some signs of change, and one of them might have come from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia this month, its survey on manufacturing activity.

Speaker 2 Subdued is the short description. Both factory demand and factory production were down, which is affecting employment.
That's the way that works.

Speaker 2 The Philly Fed's Manufacturing Employment Index fell to its lowest level since the early days of the pandemic. Marketplace Adjustin Ho has more on that one.

Speaker 16 Manufacturing activity has been slow for years now. Ben Ayers, senior economist at Nationwide, says, look at what happened just after the pandemic.

Speaker 14 We really saw consumers shift from buying goods to buying services. The demand for goods has really waned.

Speaker 16 And then came the Trump administration's tariffs. Ayers says many manufacturers aren't able to adjust their supply chains to avoid those higher costs.

Speaker 14 So because of that, they're making any changes they can make to try to cut back on the cost front.

Speaker 16 Manufacturers aren't announcing big waves of layoffs, says Ryan Sweet, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics.

Speaker 16 He says firms are more likely to just put off any decisions about hiring since things are so uncertain.

Speaker 14 That creates paralysis, not just for hiring, but also for business investment and equipment and structures.

Speaker 16 That said, there is evidence that the tariffs during the first Trump administration caused manufacturing employment to eventually fall.

Speaker 16 Sweet says the sector itself isn't a huge component of the economy.

Speaker 16 But on the other hand, he says manufacturing layoffs can have broader consequences, especially if those workers reduce their spending.

Speaker 14 That reduction in spending then reduces the demand for workers in other industries, and therefore they either cut back on hours worked or they cut back on employment.

Speaker 16 Sweet says that's why a pickup in manufacturing layoffs could be concerning because a strong labor market is the economy's last line of defense against a recession.

Speaker 3 I'm Justin Hoe for Marketplace.

Speaker 2 President Trump's trade policy is mercurial at best, changing in some cases literally by the day.

Speaker 2 But some of his tariffs have been in effect for more than a month now, including a 25% tax on some imported car parts, which is putting small businesses in the automotive industry between that economic rock and a hard place.

Speaker 2 Here's Marketplace's Henrietta.

Speaker 15 Abby Blankensop has been hearing this noise coming from her 2018 Subaru Forester.

Speaker 17 And it happens when I'm driving, like when my wheels are turning.

Speaker 13 It's like a bush, shush, shush, shush, shush, shush, shush. It's really effing annoying.

Speaker 15 She's describing the problem to Naya Key, the manager of Gurlington Garage, a repair shop in South Burlington, Vermont. Key says she'll have her technicians look into it.

Speaker 19 And we might say we didn't find anything.

Speaker 13 Okay.

Speaker 19 But it's worth us digging into it a little bit.

Speaker 13 Yeah, I'm good with that.

Speaker 15 It's a job that might require new parts, and that has recently brought some unwelcome surprises, Key says.

Speaker 19 I had a customer in here that was supposed to. we found a wheel bearing that was broken, and we created an estimate with Volkswagen parts.
And the next week, he was already scheduled.

Speaker 19 We ordered the parts, and they arrived without any notice. They were

Speaker 19 three times the price.

Speaker 15 She says the company did not spell out the reason for the increase, but Key suspects tariffs may have been a factor. The customer went with parts made by a third party, not VW.

Speaker 15 They're generally cheaper, but Key says some prices for third-party parts are rising too. She got a notice from a battery company recently that said, Hey, by this date, we have to increase our prices.

Speaker 19 This is because of tariffs, and it's increasing $5 from the original price.

Speaker 15 That bump of roughly 4% takes effect near the end of this month, she says. But she can't stockpile a bunch of batteries to get ahead of it because there's not enough space in the shop.

Speaker 15 Tires are stacked in the lobby. There are nuts and bolts in the back office.
So many parts she orders week by week and stores them on a few shelves in the shop.

Speaker 19 As you can see, the first two shelves that are full, that has

Speaker 19 a set of great parts on it, just pads and rotors, coil spring, and then some like loose suspension parts, and that covered the whole shelf.

Speaker 19 So like there's no way we could prepare for a month or anything like that.

Speaker 15 Further up the supply chain, companies that make and import auto parts have more leeway to navigate tariffs, says Todd Compo, who analyzes the car parts and repair industries for SP global mobility.

Speaker 15 Parts companies, he says, are taking a variety of approaches.

Speaker 14 Some are trying to hold the line and absorbing the price increase for the time being until more certainty emerges. Some are passing them along.

Speaker 14 And then I'm sure there's some that are still, you know, just kind of going to wait and see.

Speaker 15 Hoping, he says, that the tariffs might not be permanent. But despite rising import costs, the parts industry is in a good position right now, Campo says.

Speaker 15 Rising new and used car prices have led drivers to hold on to their vehicles longer. The average car or pickup is now 12.8 years old, according to S ⁇ P.

Speaker 15 And older cars, Compo says, need more repairs.

Speaker 14 I think even though we're in the midst of tariff and trade concerns, which will be a headwind, that the tailwinds are actually... quite a bit stronger from the confluence of tailwinds that we have.

Speaker 15 But as those tailwinds have picked up, so have car maintenance costs. According to the Consumer Price Index, repair costs are up 39% since 2020.
Parts costs are up 23%.

Speaker 15 Naya Key at Gurlington Garage says the best she can do in this situation is to be transparent as the industry fluctuates.

Speaker 19 We just have to go probably month by month and make sure we're updating our customers as much as possible.

Speaker 15 And giving them options. That whooshing sound that brought in the 2018 Subaru Forester was a brake problem.
It needed new front pads and rotors.

Speaker 15 Key says she gave the customer the choice of premium or economy replacement parts for the job. The customer went with economy.
In Burlington, Vermont, I'm Henriette from Marketplace.

Speaker 13 Coming up.

Speaker 11 These schools are, you know, trying to find different ways to boost their revenues.

Speaker 2 Ultimate frisbee, anyone? But first, let's do the numbers

Speaker 2 dow industrial was up 35 points today just about a 10th percentile 42 206 the nasdaq subtracted 98 points a half percent 19 447 the s p 500 down 13 points two tenths percent 59 and 67

Speaker 2 for the week the dow off 1.8 percent the nasdaq backed down one and one tenth of one percent the s p 500 down 1.3 percent auto parts since henry was just talking about them lkq corporation sells aftermarket and recycled replacement parts, added 7 tenths percent.

Speaker 2 Auto leave makes seatbelts, other safety components decreased 1%.

Speaker 22 You're listening to Marketplace.

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Speaker 2 This is Marketplace. I'm Kai Rizdahl.
If a big city is in your leisure plans this summer, maybe you've got museums on your mind, iconic food, perhaps?

Speaker 2 Well, have you thought about, and hear me out now, that city's rivers and harbors and estuaries?

Speaker 2 Waterways have, of course, been economic assets for cities for centuries, but right now, think recreation, kayaking, and paddleboarding, and swimming, surfing sometimes.

Speaker 2 It'll both attract and keep residents, the theory goes, and bring in some tourism dollars.

Speaker 2 But for cities with histories of polluted waterways, which is to say a lot of them, that's going to take some persuading, as Marketplace's Stephanie Hughes reports.

Speaker 26 Sorry, watch the goose poop. I haven't watched that off this morning.

Speaker 21 Jesse Benson owns B-More Sub, and this location on the harbor is a new one for her paddleboarding business.

Speaker 26 And we'll just paddle that way towards the sunrise, and then we're just going to do yoga right in this area for the season.

Speaker 21 It feels like business is meeting nature here. Along with the bird chirps and goose poop, you can hear train whistles and sea cargo ships.

Speaker 21 It may seem a little unusual to paddle for fun in Baltimore's harbor, which is known more for shipping and manufacturing.

Speaker 21 But Courtney Marshall, who's training to be an instructor at Beamor Sup, isn't too phased.

Speaker 1 I mean, I feel like I'm not going to fall in, so

Speaker 16 I'm like a little bit less worried about it.

Speaker 21 The class costs $40 and there are only a handful of people signed up today. Benson says it's been slow going, partly because people are worried about getting wet.

Speaker 26 They're still nervous. They're nervous to try paddleboarding on the inner harbor.
Like there's still that perception of, like, ew, I don't want to fall in the harbor.

Speaker 21 It's still relatively early days for Baltimore's water sports scene, says Adam Lindquist, vice president of the Waterfront Partnership.

Speaker 21 It's one of the groups behind an initiative to clean up the harbor that started 15 years ago. And there has been a market improvement in Baltimore's water quality since then.

Speaker 17 We say the harbor is conditionally swimmable.

Speaker 21 Last year, Baltimore held its first organized public swim in the harbor in over 40 years. Another one is being held later this summer.

Speaker 21 Tickets are already sold out, and Lindquist wants this to be a regular thing.

Speaker 17 The end game is that we want a public swimming spot in the Baltimore harbor so that people can come down and swim on their own whenever they feel like it.

Speaker 21 Lindquist says for the time being, he would avoid swimming in the harbor outside of organized events because there are some conditions that make a dunk unsafe.

Speaker 21 For example, when it rains, that can cause the city's sewer system to overflow.

Speaker 17 That carries bacteria into the harbor that can make people sick.

Speaker 21 It takes about two days for that bacteria to die off. And Linquist says when you do jump in, you probably shouldn't touch the bottom.

Speaker 17 We have a very industrial past in Baltimore City, like many cities, and basically you don't want to stir up the sediment at the bottom of the harbor.

Speaker 21 There are still challenges with pollution, including a recent diesel spill in the harbor. It was in a contained area, and Linquist says it won't affect the upcoming harbor swim.

Speaker 21 But it doesn't help build the image of Baltimore Baltimore as a swimming mecca.

Speaker 21 And for decades, lots of cities were more interested in protecting themselves from their rivers as opposed to jumping in them.

Speaker 15 We walled ourselves off from rivers and waterfronts out of fear.

Speaker 21 Brian Trustee is with Prose Consulting. His firm advises places, including Baltimore, on parks and recreation systems.
He says over the last 20 years, that attitude has changed.

Speaker 21 And now he's getting calls from places around the country that want to turn their waterways into economic engines.

Speaker 15 Communities are seeing each other. They're seeing examples.
They're like, oh, I want that.

Speaker 21 One place Trustees worked with is Des Moines, Iowa.

Speaker 27 Iowa does not have the ocean. We do not have mountains, right? But we do have rivers.

Speaker 21 Stephanie Oppel leads the nonprofit Iowa Confluence Water Trails.

Speaker 21 In 2022, it found that recreation on the water in Des Moines and the surrounding areas brought in more than $11 million in consumer spending. Over half of that was from tourists.

Speaker 21 It's expecting to about double that yearly spending by making some of its waterways not just boatable, but also surfable.

Speaker 27 We are putting in what's called a wave shaper. It is this big mechanical flipper that can create a surf wave.
So late next summer, people will be surfing on the Des Moines River.

Speaker 21 This is not cheap. The wave shaper costs a million dollars.
And Opple says one challenge is these projects take a lot of time to both fund and build.

Speaker 21 You have to make sure people understand they won't be here tomorrow, but in a couple of tomorrows. In Baltimore, I'm Stephanie Hughes for Marketplace.

Speaker 2 These are difficult times for university enrollment in this country for a lot of reasons. So some schools are getting creative, smaller schools in particular.

Speaker 2 Athletics, generally speaking, ultimate frisbee specifically in intercollegiate athletics. Xavier Martinez at the Wall Street Journal wrote about this the other day.
Thanks for coming on the program.

Speaker 4 Thanks for having me.

Speaker 2 So of all the things that a small college could invest in where money is always tight, right, why Ultimate Frisbee?

Speaker 11 Well, Ultimate Frisbee is one of those kind of niche sports that's seen a lot of growth in the last couple of decades.

Speaker 11 And it's not a sport that... you know, requires a lot of money to get off the ground and to sustain year over year.

Speaker 11 And so for a lot of colleges, it's a way to attract talent that wouldn't otherwise come to their school. And it's a way to do that pretty inexpensively.

Speaker 2 Trevor Burrus, Jr.: And then you get more people coming to school, right? Is that the deal?

Speaker 4 That's the thinking, right?

Speaker 11 Is you can boost your enrollment.

Speaker 11 And it's especially important at a time that, you know, a lot of small and kind of niche colleges are seeing a real large cliff, a drop-off in their expected enrollment in the next couple of years.

Speaker 2 Yeah, we're seeing a lot of those schools close. But let me ask you this, and I say this with

Speaker 2 zero offense meant to any of my Ultimate Frisbee playing friends out there. But as you portray in this article,

Speaker 2 Ultimate at this level has become really super competitive. And my experience with Ultimate is that it's usually kind of granola-ish and get-along to go along, man.

Speaker 11 Absolutely. You know, they have this tradition in the game called the spirit of the game, and that's the rule that they abide by.

Speaker 11 And it basically says that, you know, you should support teamwork over competitive success, right?

Speaker 11 If there's ever a moment where you have to choose between winning and helping a teammate or something like that, that you should choose the latter.

Speaker 11 And, we've seen a couple of teams break on the scene here and really overtly prioritize winning. And that's caused kind of a tumultuous reaction from some in the community.

Speaker 2 I am obliged to point out here though that much as many people would like to not think so, higher education is a business and one does have, if not profit motives, then certainly business-oriented motives.

Speaker 2 And that explains why a lot of these schools are doing this.

Speaker 11 Absolutely, Kai. I mean, these schools are

Speaker 11 trying to find different ways to boost their revenues. And,

Speaker 11 you know, this is a sport just like any other. They compete in a sanctioned league.
It's not under the NCAA, but it's through an independent organization.

Speaker 11 And I think for these schools, it's a real great way to kind of boost their bottom line.

Speaker 2 I will point out here that Oklahoma Christian got the lowest score in the Spirit of the Game competition at the most recent championship. So, you know.

Speaker 11 Absolutely. That was last year in 2024's competition.

Speaker 11 And, you know, I think that that kind of shows the reaction a little bit, right?

Speaker 11 You know, some of these teams that don't have scholarship programs that compete following that spirit of the game rule, I think that they feel a little irked that there's this real new team that has garnered a lot of competitive success.

Speaker 11 And obviously, you're seeing that through some of their reactions. And, of course, you're pointing out those scores.

Speaker 2 Trevor Burrus, Jr.: And it's spreading. To your right, sorry, just the idea of Ultimate as a recruiting tool, it is spreading to other places.

Speaker 11 Certainly. Last year, we saw another school besides Oklahoma Christian, Davenport University in Michigan.
They started an Ultimate Frisbee team as well.

Speaker 11 And they provided scholarships to both men's and women's teams, actually.

Speaker 11 And they've kind of expressed their intent to go kind of full throttle next year. They're going to move from that Division III league all the way up to Division I next year.

Speaker 11 They said that the competition just wasn't quite good enough for them at that level that they were at.

Speaker 2 Xavier Martinez writing about Ultimate Frisbee, Frisbee, which is, I guess, becoming a cutthroat collegiate support in the Wall Street Journal.

Speaker 22 Xavier, thanks a lot. I appreciate your time.

Speaker 11 Thank you, guys.

Speaker 2 Oh my, look at the time. Gotta go.
No time for a final. Courtney and Sadif and I went way too long.
BJ Lederman composed our theme music. Marketplace Executive Producer is Nancy Fergali.

Speaker 2 Donna Tam is the executive editor. Neil Scarborough is vice president and general manager.
And I'm Kai Rizdall. Have yourself a green weekend, everybody.
We are back on Monday, all right?

Speaker 6 This is 8 p.m.

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