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On the program today, what's going on with housing, a new way students are learning personal finance, and how one small business dealt with a fire and now tariffs.

From American Public Media, this is Marketplace.

In Portland, Oregon, I'm Rima Greis in for Chi Rizdahl.

It is Thursday, 19th of June.

Good to have you with us on this Juneteenth.

It's been a busy week for economic tea leaves.

Retail sales, housing starts, the usual clues.

And tomorrow, we'll round things off with the conference board's leading economic index.

That is a monthly report that takes into account 10 different economic measurements and then spits out a number that helps us understand where this economy might be headed.

Marketplace's Elizabeth Troval takes a look at what makes those indicators actually leading.

A parent wouldn't pick their favorite child, and the conference boards, Ustina, Zhabinska, Lamonica, isn't about to name a preferred measurement in the leading economic index.

They're all extremely important.

The indices cover financial conditions, employment, and production, like average hours worked in manufacturing in a week.

Let's say a producer or manufacturer has a little bit lower orders coming in.

They usually tend first to just cut hours.

That could signal weakness in manufacturing before it shows up in unemployment.

Another part of the leading index is home building permits, says Rice University's John Diamond.

When you get that initial permit, that pretty much starts a year of economic activity.

You've got lumber to buy, roofs to raise, the supplies, the suppliers, the workers.

So if you have an increase in building permits today, then we know that we're going to see an increase in all of these areas.

Job market data is also useful, but it's not all leading, which is why the leading economic index includes average initial jobless claims.

Because it's released weekly, because it's so timely.

That's Jason Schenker with forecast firm Prestige Economics, who says these data points are moving really fast now.

There is just a high degree of uncertainty for what the total aggregate impact of not just higher prices from tariffs, but growth concerns from tariff fears mean for the economic outlook in the medium term.

But not everything has an economic indicator.

Economists still don't have a great measure for the future of trade policy.

I'm Elizabeth Troval for Marketplace.

Wall Street was closed today for the holiday.

We'll take a look at the international markets when we do the numbers.

Elizabeth was just talking about some hard data we're getting tomorrow.

But sometimes there are softer signals, you know, sort of on-the-ground clues that give us a sense of how things are going.

This next story takes us to Washington, D.C., where cuts to the federal workforce have been especially tough.

Jobless claims there went up by 100% last month compared to the same period last year.

And now we're starting to see the ripple effects of those cuts.

Take childcare centers.

JD Allen has that one.

A typical morning in Taylor's house includes getting breakfast to his toddler before rushing to his federal job.

Oh, you want French toasties?

No, not French toasties.

And we've got eggs.

And then we've got bananas and pears.

After breakfast, there's drop-off at daycare.

Taylor lives and works in the southeast, but we're not using his real name or exact location because he's a federal worker.

He's still employed and he fears retaliation.

Taylor's kid is enrolled at a daycare center on federal property, where he also volunteers as a board member.

We are struggling with what the planning for the future looks like because it's hard to predict what our enrollment will be.

Hard to predict because so many federal employees have lost their jobs.

If we start to have losses that result in not enough individuals to justify the staff we have on hand, would that require cuts to staff?

Taylor pays about $1,700 per month for care, which is 15% less than the going rate in his area.

Daycare at his center could be affordable since the provider doesn't pay rent.

That's because of a statute with the federal government.

The child care center needs to enroll at least 50% of families with one parent with a federal job.

And with federal cuts, the ratio is narrowing for Taylor Center.

If there are widespread cuts to federal employment that cause employees to no longer be federal, we would have the risk of falling below that 50% cutoff.

This isn't theoretical.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, several facilities in Montgomery County, Maryland, which has one of the largest concentrations of federal child care centers, fell below the threshold.

Some child care centers had a close, even though the federal government offered leniency with the 50% requirement as workers trickled back to the office.

Alicia Cross co-chairs the organization of child care directors, representing over 50 centers in southern Maryland that's dense with federal workers.

We have lost some.

And what happens is if we have one parent who's a federal employee and another one who's not, when that parent loses their job.

They might also lose their child space in daycare.

Sometimes laid-off federal workers can lose access to daycare the same day they lose their job, since the facilities are on federal property.

So child care centers are hoping for some leniency.

We have been asking what that would look like, and that has been a very difficult question to answer.

A spokesperson for the General Services Administration tells Marketplace that the GSA will continue to provide oversight and quote, falling below the 50% figure does not necessarily or automatically result in center closure.

Still, these child care centers are looking at ways to replace federal support to create more long-term stability.

But for now, the spillover effects from federal layoffs are enormous, according to Elise Gould, senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute.

We don't know what those federal workers are going to do with their kids.

And often the wait list for new daycares can be long.

If they get another job, they're going to still need to have care for their kids.

And because federal families can pay a lower than usual rate for child care at these facilities, when they lose their jobs, not only do they have to scramble for work, but also quality, affordable care for their kids.

I'm JD Allen for Marketplace.

When you think of personal finance lessons, what comes to mind?

Probably budgeting, investing, maybe how to do your taxes without completely spiraling.

But as more states roll out financial education requirements for kids, some are tailoring those lessons to help students navigate their local economies.

Case in point, the state of Oklahoma, where casinos are big business and where students are required to learn about gambling as part of their personal finance education.

Marketplace's Stephanie Hughes has that story.

When you go into the Grand Casino in Shawnee, Oklahoma, it feels like you're entering a video game.

There's chirping sounds and bright neon lights.

I sat down at a game called Silver Dollar Shootout.

Alright, this is all my money.

This is not public radio money for the record.

If I win, it's my money too.

That line has to hit for you to win.

Matthew Morgan is chairman of the Oklahoma Indian Gaming Association.

Oklahoma has over 140 casinos, second only to Nevada.

All of them are owned by Native American tribes.

Just push that button to play on your machine.

That's right.

So that was not a winner.

A lot of them aren't going to be winners.

These casinos are businesses.

They're meant to make money, and they are a major employer in the state.

But Chad Matthews, the casino's marketing director, says they only want that money from people who have it to spend.

He says a casino isn't the place for his 20-year-old son, for example.

He's out on his own.

And I work at a casino and I tell him all the time, you don't make enough money to go to the casino.

Like

you should never step foot in one because you're just not in a place where that makes any sense for you.

Gambling is part of the culture here.

It's a rite of passage for kids to visit a casino when they turn 18.

So as part of the state's personal finance education standards, students have to learn about both the economic impact and the risks of gambling.

So your first question up there is, how much do Americans spend on lottery tickets each year?

Carrie Hickson teaches personal finance at Mustang High School in a suburb of Oklahoma City.

Earlier this school year, I visited her lesson on gambling, which started with that lottery discussion.

Probably like $100 million.

What do you think?

10 million.

10 million?

Okay.

It was actually over 113 billion in fiscal year 2024.

We're spending way more than we're winning, aren't we?

To teach students that in games of chance, no outcome is guaranteed, Hickson passes out coins.

Shouldn't be a penny.

Big money.

She has the students flip the coins as many times as they can in a minute.

One student, Rayden Pierce, just keeps flipping the same thing.

And he says the chances the next flip will be heads are higher.

70% heads and then 30% tails.

Actually, the chances it'll be heads are 50-50.

You're not due for tails just because you've been flipping heads.

And heads isn't any more likely just because you've been getting it a bunch.

The odds reset every time you flip.

I just thought it would hesitate because that's what they usually landed on, to be honest.

Another lesson Nixon is trying to get across, be aware that you can get addicted.

According to the Oklahoma Association on Problem Gambling and Gaming, more than one in 20 Oklahomans meet the criteria for gambling disorder.

That's where it becomes an addiction and interferes with daily life.

That's about double what it was less than a decade ago.

Some of you might have family members that you're like, yep, they got a gambling problem.

This resonated with 18-year-old Brayden Pierce.

I think gambling editions are very real because personally I think I have one, but I'm broke right now so I can't even go gamble.

If I had the money, I'd be at the casino tonight.

Pierce says he got into gambling by playing video games.

Starting when he was 12 or 13, he'd buy loot boxes.

These are boxes of items players can purchase without knowing what they'll get.

So buying them, it's kind of a gamble.

He also played a video game that had a casino in it.

You can do horse races, slot machines, blackjacks.

Now Pierce can visit an actual casino and he feels like there's one thing that keeps him gambling.

I think I win a lot.

That's the only reason why, honestly.

It's not known if these classes actually keep students from developing gambling disorders, but Hickson says she's trying to teach her students if they gamble, do it responsibly.

I don't know how much impact it makes on whether they go to the casinos, but I do want them to be aware of that, again, the odds are not in your favor.

As online betting has taken off, Oklahoma's Council on Economic Education says they're getting calls from other states saying, hey, how are you teaching kids about the risks of gambling?

In Mustang, Oklahoma, I'm Stephanie Hughes for Marketplace.

Coming up.

When you win a medal at an Olympic Games, you get paid for a medal.

Makes sense to me.

But first, let's do the numbers.

U.S.

markets were closed today because of the Juneteenth holiday.

In Europe, Britain's FTSE fell 6 tenths percent.

France's CAC 40 slipped 1 3 tenths percent.

Germany's DAX lost 1.10%,

and Nikkei and Japan subtracted 1%.

Jobless claims declined slightly last week, falling by 5,000 applications to 245,000.

That's about what economists expected, but the numbers are stabilizing at the highest levels since last October.

Continuing claims were also down a little bit, falling to 1.95 million.

But they're also hanging around levels not seen since late 2021, indicating that it may be taking people longer to find new jobs.

California, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Florida saw the largest increases in initial claims for the week ending June 7th.

The largest dip in new claims was in Kentucky, which saw them decrease by 4,200.

North Dakota, Tennessee, Mississippi, and Kansas all saw new claims decrease by less than 1,000.

You're listening to Marketplace.

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This is Marketplace.

I'm Rima Reis.

We keep getting more evidence that the housing market is not doing so great.

This week we learned that construction of new homes fell nearly 10% in May.

Homebuilder confidence is slipping.

And here's another clue.

Only 28% of homes across the country have been selling for more than the listing price.

That's according to new data from Redfin.

It is the lowest percentage for a spring housing season since 2020.

Marketplace's Samantha Fields has more.

The housing market in and around around Miami today is very different than it was a few years ago.

Joanna Jimenez leads a team at Compass, which works with buyers and sellers there.

And she says of the homes they've sold this year, a little less than 10% sold above asking and a little over 10% sold at asking price.

Which means about 80% are going below asking.

A couple years ago, she says more than half were going over.

But fewer people are looking to buy in Miami these days.

We have a lot more inventory that we we didn't have two years ago.

So there's more options.

Those prices start to come down.

There's still plenty of competition in certain neighborhoods, she says.

That's true nationally, too.

As is always the case with housing markets, it depends where you are.

Daryl Fairweather at Redfin says it also depends on what kind of home you're looking at.

Single-family homes that are on the smaller side, priced closer to the median local price, those are still selling with multiple offers and for above asking price.

Because a lot of first-time buyers want starter homes and there's just not that many of them.

Overall, the market is better for buyers now than it was a few years ago.

Hallie Wolf at Zonda says another reason for that, investors are snapping up fewer properties.

Investors fueled a lot of the housing demand over the past few years because one, interest rates were low.

They basically could buy a home with free money.

And two, it was almost guaranteed that home prices were going to go up.

Now, that's not the case.

Joanna Jimenez at Compass is seeing that in Miami, which has always attracted a lot of investors.

The majority of all our buyers right now are people that are going to live in the home.

Plenty of people who would like to buy are still priced out or freaked out by all the uncertainty in the economy.

But she says for people who are ready, it's a good time.

Because two, three years ago when you were competing with a lot of cash offers or you're competing with many offers, you couldn't really get what you wanted.

Now she says it's more likely you can.

I'm Samantha Fields for Marketplace.

Running any kind of small business is tough.

Running one in a niche industry like ballet can be even tougher.

So, when a fire wiped out a Pennsylvania Ballet Shoe Company's entire inventory, it was a serious hit.

But the real challenge came after the flames were out and new tariffs were in.

Diana Opong has that story.

One early February morning, Irene Wilson got a call from one of her employees at the Vertis Warehouse outside of Philadelphia.

It stored thousands of ballet shoes and smoke was curling out of the building.

I jumped into the car.

It took me about 10 minutes, maybe 12 to get to the building, and it was just shocking.

And already there were like three fire companies there.

Wilson is a managing partner at Vertisse and owned that building for nearly 20 years.

By the time she arrived, the smoke was billowing.

I've never been through a fire.

Vertisse is a small woman-owned company with just six U.S.

employees.

For four years, it's been making and importing point shoes.

You know, the kind that help ballet dancers float, spin, and leap like gravity's just a suggestion.

The cause of the fire is still unknown, but the damage?

Enormous.

We lost our whole business.

Everything got wiped out.

25,000 pairs of point shoes up in smoke.

That's more than 3 million in retail inventory.

Most small businesses might not regain their footing after that loss, but Vertisse moved fast, filed an insurance claim, found a new building, tried to get shipments going again.

Then came a second hit.

Now

we have to rebuild that inventory at approximately a 50% higher cost to us because of these tariffs.

Each Vertisse shoe is handmade and imported from China or Russia.

Now, tariffs are part of the choreography for any international business, but Vertisse wasn't prepared for the double whammy of a warehouse fire and tariff hikes of up to 145%.

We were non-functioning for a good two months, which was really very stressful because we knew we were letting down a lot of people, a lot of dancers.

Vertis shoes are still being made overseas, and a 90-day pause on those extra high tariffs gives them a bit of breathing room.

But even so, the company's working with thinner margins.

Meanwhile, dance shops have been patiently waiting for shipments to come in while Vertis navigates the tariffs.

We have like 50 customer orders waiting right now.

Damon Spencer runs Tutu, a boutique in Bridgeville, Pennsylvania, that sells Vertisse shoes.

When shipments stopped, he improvised by swapping products with other shops and suggesting alternatives to customers.

But point shoes aren't just pretty.

They're engineered, part science, part artistry.

The wrong fit can throw off technique or cause injury.

It's like go ahead and tell a dancer, oh, we're going to change your shoe.

It doesn't go well, you know.

If a dancer loves Vertisse Enigma, that dancer is in a Vertis Enigma and you can't change them.

Spencer says these days, it's a balancing act.

Higher prices for dancers, less profit for sellers.

To understand what Vertisse's story says about the broader economy, I called Susan Aronson, a trade expert at George Washington University and a lifelong dancer.

I have four pairs of ballet slippers and one pair of jazz shoes.

She's not stockpiling new shoes yet, but Aronson says the stakes are high for consumers and businesses, and there's been a lot of tariff whiplash.

Small businesses and large businesses have to be able to plan.

At Vertice, co-owner Irene Wilson and her team are trying to find their rhythm.

The 90-day pause on those 145% tariffs buys them some time to get the business and dancers back on their feet.

But after that, it's a big unknown.

I'm Diana Olpong for Marketplace.

The Winter Olympics, our next February, seems like a while away, but if you're an athlete preparing for it, first of all, amazing.

Second, your summer probably looks like training, training, and more training, and then figuring out how to afford all of that training.

Which brings us to our next installment in our series, My Economy.

My name is Colin Huffman.

I'm on the Team USA curling team, and I'm based in Seattle, Washington.

When you win a medal at an Olympic Games, you get paid for a medal.

So if you get a bronze, you get a payment of $15,000.

Silver is like $25,000-ish.

And gold is $37,500.

The other way that you can get paid through the Olympics is a monthly payment.

So last year we were paid $750,000 a month.

Unfortunately, $750

is not nearly enough for us to be able to pay for all of our bills and buy enough food.

So almost all of us have full-time jobs.

Our team had a lot of opportunities to work with different companies.

Any money that comes into the team bank account, we split it up.

So if someone comes to me and they want to give me $100, I'd keep $80 and $20 would go to the rest of the team.

And the reason we do that is because we want to keep everyone happy.

So the best way to do that is to share.

That was Colin Huffman out of Seattle, Washington.

He plays on the USA curling team.

His My Economy came from our colleagues over at Million Bazillion, a podcast from Marketplace about money for kids and families.

A new season is out now.

Be sure to find it wherever you listen to your podcasts.

This final note on the way out today.

You know, we talked earlier about cuts to the federal workforce, but even in corporate America, we're seeing fewer employees.

Saw this in the Wall Street Journal earlier that over the last three years, U.S.

public companies have reduced their white-collar workforce by a collective 3.5%.

A lot of that comes down to a growing industry philosophy that too many employees might slow down a company.

Also, no surprise here, but generative AI is also making it so corporations feel like they can do more with less.

John Gordon, Noya Carr, Amanda Peacher, and Stephanie Seek are the marketplace editing staff.

Amir Babawi is the managing editor, and I'm Rima Reis.

We'll be back tomorrow.

This is APM.

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