Overtime – Episode #668: James Carville, Rep. Dan Crenshaw, Kaitlan Collins

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Speaker 5 Welcome to an HBO podcast from the HBO Late Night Series, Real Time with Bill Ma.

Speaker 3 Okay, we're back here on Overtime with the anchor of CNN's The Source with Caitlin Collins. Caitlin Collins,

Speaker 3 he's a Democratic strategist and co-host of the podcast, Politics War Room, James Carville, and he's a Republican congressman from Texas who host the podcast, Hold These Truths with Dan Crenshaw.

Speaker 3 Dan Crenshaw. Okay.

Speaker 3 All right, here is what people want to know.

Speaker 3 Dan, what explains why certain Republicans like Tucker Carlson have become so pro-Putin? Good question. What does explain that?

Speaker 3 Your buddy. Man, I don't know how to.

Speaker 6 Tucker hates my guts. I mean, I think we all know that.

Speaker 3 Well, that says a lot for you. Yeah, you guys.

Speaker 6 I don't know how to explain Tucker. I've never met Tucker.
I've never even spoken with him. He just trashes me because I think it's a bad idea if Russia wins a land war in Europe.

Speaker 6 And I would remind everybody, everybody, I know this is getting serious, but I would remind everybody,

Speaker 6 if you don't stop Russia there, and we're spending maybe 5% to 10% of our GPA, sorry, I said GDP, defense spending just on supporting Ukraine so they can fight their own battles.

Speaker 6 If you didn't do that, if you never gave them any stingers, never gave them any javelins, you'd have a Russian army that is fully intact and also very aware that we don't defend our friends and they'd be on the border of former NATO countries.

Speaker 6 If you want to get closer to war, that's how you get closer to war.

Speaker 6 So what do I make of some random, his opinion who got fired from that?

Speaker 3 I don't know. That opinion, which I agree with, is out of step with your own party.

Speaker 6 It's about half and half. I mean, you can see it in our votes, yeah.
I mean,

Speaker 6 it's an ongoing discussion. And Trump, by the way, has never ran away from it.
Trump has always said, first of all, he threatened Putin when he was in office. He said, look, we're going to...

Speaker 3 What a kiss?

Speaker 3 In a culture like Russia's, that would be a threat.

Speaker 3 But no, he said,

Speaker 6 purportedly said, I'm going to bomb the shit out of Moscow if you invade Ukraine. In any case, we know he didn't invade Ukraine Ukraine while he was president.

Speaker 6 He increased the lethal aid to Ukraine by a lot, actually.

Speaker 6 And so, and he's never said he's backing away from Ukraine. What he has said is it should be a loan, we should have mining rights, Europeans should pay more, all things I think we all agree with.

Speaker 7 Okay. Except that whole impeachment thing.

Speaker 3 Which part? The ones that Democrats impeached.

Speaker 3 Yeah,

Speaker 6 the thing that Biden did before that?

Speaker 3 Oh, yeah. I forgot about that.

Speaker 6 Well, but that's diplomacy.

Speaker 7 And Biden did the exact same thing.

Speaker 6 Biden did the exact same thing, literally to the exact same country. No, we we bragged.

Speaker 3 Yes, he did.

Speaker 6 What did he do? He was bragging about withholding aid unless they fired that the prosecutor that they did.

Speaker 3 That's the prosecutor, which is what your party complains about when it's diplomacy.

Speaker 6 So

Speaker 6 American presidents have that power to say, no, we're going to withhold aid because we don't like what you're doing. If our State Department and our,

Speaker 6 I'm not bashing Biden for doing that either, by the way. But

Speaker 3 withholding aid because you can't impeach somebody for doing what is within my powers as the president.

Speaker 3 You know, you could misuse Powell. And he was saying, if you don't, it was congressionally authorized, I think it it was $400 million authorization.

Speaker 3 And he tells a guy, if you don't give me some dirt, I'm going to withhold it. I'm sorry.

Speaker 3 I don't know.

Speaker 3 That's not right. That's not right.
Congress voted for that. It was the law.
And

Speaker 3 I think the whole, I don't understand the whole Russian stuff in terms of Tucker. Yeah, he's

Speaker 3 a friend of mine. I remember did a show with him.
He used to say that shit in the green room. And I thought he was joking and being provocative.
It turned out he really believed it.

Speaker 3 It was back that far. It was pretty.

Speaker 3 Can I explain Russia?

Speaker 3 What could I say? Could I go on with Russia? Because we once did an editorial out on this show.

Speaker 3 It's the last country that's all in on white.

Speaker 3 Did you watch the Olympics?

Speaker 3 Like, every country in the world now is multiracial. Yeah.
Not Russia. I think that's something that a part of the Republican Party just really likes about Russia.
They are not for multiculturalism.

Speaker 3 They're not for multi-colonialism.

Speaker 6 I think there's more white people in Sweden.

Speaker 3 I mean, I don't think it's good. Talking like a million.

Speaker 6 I think they have a higher white population. Russia has all the Asian population.
Come on.

Speaker 6 That's just not it.

Speaker 3 That is it. That's not it.

Speaker 3 I could read you the quotes. They love it.
I mean, they're quotes about how it's the last country in Europe that's going to be completely white.

Speaker 3 Anyway, we'll move on.

Speaker 6 There's some people who like Russia for unknown reasons.

Speaker 3 I just don't know how to say that. Who liked ballet? Caitlin, what is the most...

Speaker 6 they're great at ballet?

Speaker 3 Very good.

Speaker 3 Very good ballet. Very good.
Very good at doping. Even their drink is called a white Russian.

Speaker 3 There's a black Russian, too.

Speaker 3 Not in Russia.

Speaker 3 The only black in Russia was Brittany Greiner.

Speaker 3 What is the most pressing question, Caitlin, you would ask VP Harris if you had the chance?

Speaker 7 I have a lot of questions for her, but I I do think I would ask about, you know, where she stood when she was running as a candidate for the 2020 Democratic primary and where she stands on a lot of issues now.

Speaker 7 She's criticized a lot by Republicans for reversing her positions. I think also, I mean, Donald Trump has reversed a lot of his positions from covering those.

Speaker 7 But I think I would be interested in her evolution and where her instincts are and what she learned from governing with a moderate like President Biden.

Speaker 3 Okay. James, how much faith are you putting in polls that Joe Harris is ahead in key states and nationwide? So let me say this.
August is a great Democratic month. We hell on wheels come August, okay?

Speaker 3 You remember what George Sandbren said about Dave Winfield? He called him Mr. May.
The idea is to be good in November. And

Speaker 3 I tell Democrats some caution here. First of all, most quants say we have to win by three.

Speaker 3 in the popular vote to win Electoral College. So when you see a poll that says we two up, well, that's actually you're one down, down, if the poll is correct.

Speaker 3 The other thing is, Trump traditionally, when he's on the ballot, chronically underpolls.

Speaker 3 All right? And so they came back late in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania in 2020, and it showed Biden winning these states seven hours.

Speaker 3 Underpolls, meaning Trump's going to do better than the polling shows. I'm saying traditionally,

Speaker 3 he underpolls. Traditionally,

Speaker 3 Trump's going to do better in the election because people are too ashamed to tell a pollster they can do.

Speaker 3 I don't know, but I'm just saying traditionally with Trump on the battle, just telling the Democrats, he said, oh, James and Debbie down. What's he talking about?

Speaker 3 I'm not just telling you, you got to win by three.

Speaker 3 And I think we can get that. I think the debate.
So on September 10th, it's going to be so consequential, and it's going to have an audience that we can't believe because what does America love?

Speaker 3 A train wreck. And they had one

Speaker 3 on June the 27th, and they won on the train wreck.

Speaker 3 I agree on that. Do

Speaker 3 It's ABC debate. ABC debate.

Speaker 7 If it happens, I still think it's an open question of

Speaker 3 how it happens. Trump's going to doctor.
You think that Trump is going to pull out?

Speaker 7 I think Trump is nervous about it. I think,

Speaker 7 I talked to a lot of sources in his world. I think he has really struggled with it.
It's not just a narrative or a talking point from Democrats. He really has struggles with how to combat her.

Speaker 7 And I think going into that debate, he does not really want to do it.

Speaker 7 I think it's difficult, if not impossible, for him to pull out because his campaign manager had cards printed that said anywhere, anytime, any place for President Biden, and it would look weak.

Speaker 7 But I don't think he's looking forward to it at this point.

Speaker 3 No. I think the specter of September 18th is driving him crazy.
He's going to have to sit in that courtroom, and that's what he says. It's going to lecture him.

Speaker 3 Now, I don't know if he's going to have jail time, but there's going to be some imposition on his liberty. I don't know what it is.

Speaker 3 And those judges have sentencing options that are multitudinous. They can do a lot of creative things.

Speaker 3 But he knows that's coming. He knows September 10th is coming.
There's no way that he can get out of it, Caitlin. And I don't think, I mean,

Speaker 3 I would be happy if he did, but he kind of needs to debate now. He needs it as much as she does.
Right.

Speaker 3 And so

Speaker 3 instinctively,

Speaker 3 the candidate that doesn't want to debate is the one that doesn't need it. The one that needs it wants to debate.
So I'm.

Speaker 3 He'll make a friendly bet. I think it's going to be a bit of a debate.
I mean, he's going to shit the bed. He's done it.
You know this. I mean,

Speaker 3 he does not do well with women.

Speaker 3 He just does.

Speaker 6 Whether he does the debate or not, I'm not a political pundit trying to analyze this stuff.

Speaker 6 But I do know that it's a very easy debate to win. So all you have to say is, look, you had four years, I had four years.
When I was president,

Speaker 6 and when you were president, here's the differences. Gas prices are up 50%

Speaker 6 when you're vice president. Electricity prices are up 30%.
Grocery up 22%.

Speaker 6 The list keeps going. Taxes were lower under Trump.
They raised them under Biden and Harris. Regulations were lower under Trump.
They raised them under Biden and Harris. Immigration numbers way down.

Speaker 6 They actually tried to stop the problem. Record numbers under Biden and Harris.
This is a very easy debate to win because on the metrics, it's very easy to show side by side.

Speaker 7 But that's what his campaign wants him to say. But Donald Trump is the, it's not a campaign where you just give him his talking points and he goes out there and delivers them.

Speaker 7 I mean, Donald Trump is his own biggest impediment. His own campaign will tell you that.

Speaker 7 I mean, he's questioning whether or not she, well, her race and whether or not she's actually black at an event with black journalists.

Speaker 7 It's stuff like that that his campaign is watching in real time and knowing he's their own biggest liability.

Speaker 3 And also, if I may say,

Speaker 3 I mean,

Speaker 3 you know, you're sure of yourself. You present these issues as if it's, you know, a slam dunk.

Speaker 3 Less regulations. Well, some regulations are good.

Speaker 6 Some are good, but 10 more regulations.

Speaker 3 Some are bad. Believe me, I live in California.
I know. We have a lot.

Speaker 6 I oversee the EPM, my subcommittee.

Speaker 3 One regulation can be good. Clean air, good, all of it is a good thing.

Speaker 3 And I have a lot of friends who are Republicans that kind of believe in light of touch regulation, maybe a few less taxes, kind of slightly nationalistic.

Speaker 3 If I'm one of you, I want Trump to get beaten bad. I mean, I'm talking about a 64,

Speaker 3 72 wipeout. You know what happened after Republicans got wiped out in 64? They won in 1968.
You know what happened after the Democrats got wiped out in 72? They won in 76.

Speaker 3 If he gets, if Biden, if Harris gets 280 electoral votes, your party is fucked because you stuck with them the whole time. They're not going anywhere.

Speaker 3 You want a wipeout.

Speaker 6 What I want most of all is for my daughter to grow up in a place where she can start her own business more easily, where she's not competing against men on a swimming team or in a wrestling match.

Speaker 6 That's what I want most of all. And so the Trump policies simply are better.
You have less of the bad stuff, more of the good stuff, right?

Speaker 3 I don't know. How was it coined? I don't know how to do it.
On the 19th of the election, like what all the Trump is talking about are up and ultimately up or down. What do you think?

Speaker 3 I know, 50 to 1, I know.

Speaker 3 I know.

Speaker 3 I can run circles around you on the economy. I'm not going to be able to sex it.
Let's go back to 280 votes. Okay.
What does Trump do? If he loses this? No, he lost the last election, right?

Speaker 3 Yeah. Yeah, he lost the last election.

Speaker 3 Okay, that's a very important thing.

Speaker 3 Somebody's done. Somebody will be president.
But

Speaker 3 he hasn't conceded losing that last election. My point to you, sir, is that gas prices and food prices go up and down.
But this shit is forever.

Speaker 3 Don't take my word for it.

Speaker 6 Don't take my word for Biden policies being responsible for inflation. You could just ask the Fed and their statements in 2020.

Speaker 3 The question I'm asking you...

Speaker 6 It was all on fiscal stimulus, which is the American restaurant.

Speaker 3 Okay, but I'm I'm saying that stuff, that's the normal stuff of politics and economics.

Speaker 1 It goes up and down.

Speaker 3 But not conceding.

Speaker 3 But wait, but wouldn't you concede that not conceding elections is a much bigger, more existential issue, and that he's not going to concede this election.

Speaker 3 Can you imagine, can you tell me a scenario where he loses, maybe even by more, and he concedes the election?

Speaker 3 Can you imagine him saying, I've seen the results, and I'd like to congratulate Kamala Harris on running a good campaign.

Speaker 3 It's impossible to imagine.

Speaker 3 I don't have to imagine.

Speaker 6 I don't have to imagine any of it because I know the history of it. And the history of it is he moved out of the White House.

Speaker 6 There was a peaceful transition to power, and there was an inauguration on January 21st.

Speaker 3 He cheated.

Speaker 3 He tried everything not to do that.

Speaker 6 Yeah, they tried to do the same unconstitutional process that Democrats did when the last of the elections were.

Speaker 3 The Democrats sent fake electors. The Democrats pressured the Justice Department.
The Democrats went to court and got laughed out of it. No,

Speaker 3 you're talking about legal. That never happened in any other country.

Speaker 6 You're talking about utilizing the legal process.

Speaker 6 Now, I disagree with the fact that there should even be a process to decertify an election, but Democrats did it three times in the elections prior to that. Where was the hand-wringing then?

Speaker 6 Stacey Abrams has never said

Speaker 6 that she lost the governor's race in Georgia.

Speaker 3 And that's wrong. Nobody wrings their hands about it.
That's wrong, and it's a false equivalency to sending fake electors.

Speaker 3 Let's take electors.

Speaker 3 I want to make sure that they're going to make two points. Let's fake electors.
It makes sense. I want to make two points.

Speaker 3 John Michael Bloomberg said there's zero evidence that the economy, the last, the first two years of the Trump economy were any better than the last two years of the Obama economy. All right, period.

Speaker 3 The truth of the matter is, Trump inherited. Let me...

Speaker 3 What did you say? I didn't know. Trump inherited a good economy.
Okay. Biden inherited a crappy economy.
That's a fact. Okay, that's a fact.
That's right.

Speaker 3 Let me.

Speaker 3 know. So inheriting economy matters when you count jobs.

Speaker 3 A Democrat storming the Capitol and beating the shit out of a police officer, then I'm going to say something. I definitely saw a lot of

Speaker 6 the shit out of a lot of police officers and burning down a lot of buildings in the riots of 2020. But on the inheriting a good economy, can we address that real quick?

Speaker 6 Because that's often a talking point, and it's completely false. By the time Biden took office, real GDP was back to pre-pandemic levels.

Speaker 6 In one of the quarters in the last year of Trump, 35% increase in GDP, then 5%, then 4%.

Speaker 6 You were well on your way to a recovered economy by the time Biden got to take office. That's where a lot of those job gains were coming from.

Speaker 6 And they were despite the fact that Democrat mayors and governors all over the country were destroying their own cities, destroying their own economies, keeping them locked down more than they needed to, just like here in LA, just like in California, just like what Tim Walls did in Minnesota.

Speaker 6 These things all happened. And so if you want to talk about inflation, what causes inflation? Lack of supply, too much demand.
They injected a ton of demand, $2 trillion worth in American Rescue Plan,

Speaker 6 and then they screwed supply by screwing up and closing down factories and businesses. That creates a perfect storm.
Republican policies are not responsible for any of this.

Speaker 3 Well, some of their economic conditions in the United States in December of 2020 compared to December of 2016. And I'm going to tell you what you're going to find.
It was a lot better in December.

Speaker 3 It was a global pandemic.

Speaker 3 Again,

Speaker 3 I try not to interrupt you because I have respect for you. You look at the Lieutenant Grandeur and I'm going to say that.
I'm sorry, I'm sorry.

Speaker 3 what happened was they assaulted the Capitol at the encouragement of him. They are celebrating this on 5 September of 2024.

Speaker 3 And if a Democrat did something like that, I would go nuts.

Speaker 3 I'd want to haul off and slug a boy in the face. I wouldn't do it.
I did go nuts. Like, I hated it.

Speaker 3 That's exactly the

Speaker 3 criminals.

Speaker 3 And I wouldn't, you know, and saw a Democrat in Minneapolis. I'm not fought at at all.

Speaker 3 And by the way, you know, look what happened. And so

Speaker 6 you got to admit, though, that people at the

Speaker 6 time.

Speaker 3 Again, these were people that assaulted the Capitol. They were trying to hang out.

Speaker 7 But also to act like what Democrats have done before, which is often something that Republicans, when we have them on my show, say when we talk about January 6th and the fake electors and Trump refusing to admit that he lost the election, there was barely a peaceful transfer of power.

Speaker 7 They actually wouldn't even allow them to move forward with getting federal funding to start the transition for weeks.

Speaker 7 I remember it was because we found out about a little-known position that no one in the federal government even really knew much about because of that.

Speaker 7 But also, the difference then is Joe Biden went and certified the election. He was the vice president then, and he certified Donald Trump's election and did not

Speaker 7 massively.

Speaker 3 Because Mike Pence was pressured not to buy Donald Trump.

Speaker 6 The entire process of certification is bullshit.

Speaker 6 It's unconstitutional. Democrats opened this door.
Republicans ran through it.

Speaker 3 Congress,

Speaker 3 I'm hearing booze in the audience. They opened the door.

Speaker 6 The Constitution. Yes, they did.
Three elections in a row.

Speaker 7 You cannot compare it to the state.

Speaker 6 I can because they're going through a legal, what they deem to be a legal process. I think it's illegal, no matter which party does it.

Speaker 6 Because there's nowhere in the Constitution that says Congress gets to certify the election. They don't even use that word.

Speaker 6 This is based on an old 1886 law from the Reconstruction era. It's for a very different situation.
We need to get rid of that entire process.

Speaker 3 We need to have a full page one rewrite of the Constitution. Not that there aren't some great things in it.

Speaker 3 We have the oldest Constitution in the world. Right, and some of it is good.
And some of it is ridiculous.

Speaker 3 I live in a state with 40 million people, and I get two senators, and the Dakota Territory gets four. All right, we've got to go.
Thank you very much, everybody.

Speaker 5 Catch all new episodes of Real Time with Bill Maher every Friday night at 10, or watch him anytime on HBO On Demand. For more information, log on to HBO.com.