Overtime – Episode #668: James Carville, Rep. Dan Crenshaw, Kaitlan Collins

Welcome to an HBO podcast from the HBO Late Night series, Real Time with Bill Maul. Okay, we're back here on Overtime with the anchor of CNN's The Source with Caitlin Collins.
Caitlin Collins, he's a Democratic strategist and host of the podcast Politics War Room, James Carville. And he's a Republican congressman from Texas who hosts the podcast Hold These Truths with Dan Crenshaw.
Dan Crenshaw. Okay.
All right, here is what people want to know. Dan, what explains why certain Republicans like Tucker Carlson have become so pro-Putin? Good question.
What does explain that? Your buddy. Man, I don't know.
Tucker hates my guts. I mean, I think we all know that.
Well, that says a lot for you. Yeah, I guess.
I don't know how to explain Tucker. I've never met Tucker.
Never even spoken with him. He just trashes me because I think it's a bad idea if Russia wins a land war in Europe.
And I would remind everybody, and I was getting serious, but I would remind everybody, if you don't stop Russia there, and we're spending maybe 5 to 10 percent of our GDP, a defense spending just on supporting Ukraine so they can fight their own battles, if you didn't do that, if you never gave them any stingers, never gave them any javelins, you'd have a Russian army that is fully intact and also very aware that we don't defend our friends and they'd be on the border of former NATO countries. If you want to get closer to war, that's how you get closer to war.

So what do I make of some random... His opinion, who got fired from the talks?

I don't know.

That opinion, which I agree with, is out of step with your own party.

It's about half and half.

I mean, you can see it in our votes, yeah.

I mean, it's an ongoing discussion.

And Trump, by the way, has never ran away from it.

Trump has always said...

First of all, he threatened Putin when he was in office.

He said, but we're going to bomb him.

With what, a kiss?

What? First of all, he threatened Putin when he was in office. He said, but we're going to bomb him.
With what, a kiss? In a culture like Russia's, that would be a threat. But no, he purportedly said, I'm going to bomb the shit out of Moscow if you invade Ukraine.
In any case, we know he didn't invade Ukraine while he was president. He increased the lethal aid to Ukraine by a lot, actually.
And he's never said he's backing away from Ukraine. What he has said

is it should be a loan,

we should have mining rights, Europeans should pay more,

all things I think we all agree with.

Except that whole impeachment thing.

Which part? The ones that Democrats

impeached him for? Trump was impeached for withholding aid to Ukraine.

The thing that Biden did before that?

I forgot about that.

That's diplomacy. And Biden did the exact same thing, literally to the exact same country.
Yes, he did. What did he do? He was bragging about withholding aid unless they fired the prosecutor.
A corrupt prosecutor, which is what your party complains about. That's diplomacy.
So American presidents have that power to say, no, we're going to withhold aid because we don't like what you're doing. If our State Department and our – I'm not bashing Biden for doing that either, by the way.
But Trump wasn't withholding aid because he wanted an investigation into Hunter Biden. But you can't impeach somebody for doing what is within their powers as the president.
That's right. You know, you could misuse Paul.
And he was saying if you don't – it was a congressionally authorized, I think it was $400 million authorization. And he tells the guy, if you don't give me some dirt, I'm going to withhold it.

I'm sorry.

I don't know.

That's not right.

That's not right.

Congress voted for that.

It was the law.

And I think the whole, I don't understand the whole Russia stuff in terms of Tucker.

Yeah, he's a friend of mine.

I did a show with him.

He used to say that shit in the green room. And I thought he was joking and being provocative.
It turned out he really believed it. It goes back that far.
This is pretty... Can I explain Russia? The guys are playing.
What can I say? But I go on with Russia, because we once did an editorial out on this show. It's the last country that's all in on white.
Did you watch the Olympics? Like, every country in the world now is multiracial. Not Russia.
I think that's something that a part of the Republican Party just really likes about Russia. They are not for multiculturalism.
They're not for multiculturalism. I think there's more white people in Sweden.
I mean, I don't think that's a good idea. I think they have a million...
Sweden took away. I think they have a higher white population.
Russia has like only Asian population. Come on.
That's just not it. That is it.
That's not it. I could read you the quotes.
They love it. I mean, they're quotes about how it's the last country in Europe that's going to be completely white.
Anyway, we'll move on. There's some people who like Russia for unknown reasons.

I just don't know how to explain.

Some people like ballet.

Caitlin, what is the most... They're great at ballet.

Very good.

Very good ballet.

Very good.

They're very good at doping.

Even their drink is called a white Russian.

There's a black Russian, too.

Not in Russia.

Only black in Russia was Brittany Griner. What is the most pressing question, Caitlin, you would ask VP Harris if you had the chance? I have a lot of questions for her, but I do think I would ask about where she stood when she was running as a candidate for the 2020 Democratic primary and where she stands on a lot of issues now.
She's criticized a lot by Republicans for reversing her positions. I think also, I mean, Donald Trump has reversed a lot of his positions from covering those.
But I think I would be interested in her evolution and where her instincts are and, you know, what she learned from governing with a moderate like President Biden. Okay.
James, how much faith are you putting in polls that Joe Harris is ahead in key states and nationwide? So, let me say this. August is a great Democratic month.
We held on wheels come August, okay? Remember what George Sandgren said about Dave Winfield? He called him Mr. May.
The idea is to be good in November. And I tell Democrats some caution here.
First of all, most quants say we have to win by three in the popular vote to win the Electoral College. So when you see a poll that says we two up, well, that's actually your one down if the poll is correct.
Yeah, you'd lose. The other thing is, Trump traditionally, when he's on a ballot, chronically under polls.
So they came back late in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania in 2020, and it showed Biden winning these states seven, eight points. Under polls, meaning Trump's going to do better than the polling shows? I'm saying traditionally he under polls.
Traditionally. It means he's going to do better in the election because people are too ashamed to tell a pollster they're going to vote for him.
I don't know, but I'm just saying traditionally, with Trump on the ballot, just telling the Democrats, oh, James and Debbie Downey, what's he talking about? I'm not just telling you, you've got to win by three. And I think we can get there.
I think the debate on September 10th is going to be so consequential and it's going to have an audience there. We can't believe, because what does America love? A train wreck.
And they had one on June 27th. And they got another train wreck.
I agree on that. Do you guys have that debate? It's ABC debate.
ABC debate. If it happens, I still think it's an open question.
Really? Trump's got to. You think Trump is going to pull out? I think Trump is nervous about it.
I think Trump... I talked to a lot of sources in his world.
I think he has really struggled with it. It's not just a narrative or a talking point from Democrats.
He really has struggled with how to combat her. And I think going into that debate, he does not really want to do it.

I think it's difficult, if not impossible,

for him to pull out because his campaign manager

had cards printed that said anywhere, anytime,

anyplace for President Biden,

and it would look weak.

But I don't think he's looking forward to it at this point.

No.

I think the specter of September 18th is driving him crazy.

He's going to have to sit in that courtroom.

And that judge is going to lecture him. Now, I don't know if he's going to have jail time, but there's going to be some imposition on his liberty.
I don't know what it is. And those judges have sentencing options that are multitudinous.
They can do a lot of different creative things. But he knows that's coming.
He knows September 10th is coming. There's no way that he can get out of it, Caitlin.
I don't think. I mean, I would be happy if he did.
But he kind of needs to debate now. He needs it as much as she does.
Right, he does. And so instinctively, the candidate that doesn't want to debate is the one that doesn't need it.
The one that needs it wants to debate. So I'm...
We'll make a friendly bet. I think it goes wrong.

I mean, he's going to shit the bed.

You know this.

I mean, he does not do well with

women.

He just...

Whether he does the debate or not, I'm not a political

pundit trying to analyze this stuff.

But I do know that it's a very easy

debate to win. So all you have to say is

look, you had four years, I had four years. When I was president and when you were president, here's the differences.
Gas prices are up 50 percent when you're vice president. Electricity prices up 30 percent.
Grocery up 22 percent. The list keeps going.
Taxes were lower under Trump. They raised them under Biden and Harris.
Regulations were lower under Trump. They raised them under Biden and Harris.
Immigration numbers way down. They actually tried to stop the problem.
Record numbers under Biden and Harris. This is a very easy debate to win because on the metrics, it's very easy to show side by side.
But that's what his campaign wants him to say. But Donald Trump is the...
It's not a campaign where you just give him his talking points and he goes out there and delivers them. I mean, Donald Trump is his own biggest impediment.

His own campaign will tell you that.

I mean, he's questioning whether or not she, her race,

and whether or not she's actually black at an event with black journalists.

It's stuff like that that his campaign is, you know, watching in real time

and knowing he's their own biggest liability.

And also, if I may say...

I mean... You know, you're sure of yourself.
You present these issues as if it's, you know, slam dunk. Less regulations.
Well, some regulations are good. Some are good, but 10 more doesn't mean 10 more are better.
Some are bad. Believe me, I live in California, I know.
We have a lot. I oversee the EPM, my subcommittee.
Like, one regulation can be good. clean air.
Good. If I'm, and I have a lot.
I oversee the EPM, my subcommittee. One regulation can be good.
Clean air, good. And I have a lot of friends who are Republicans that kind of believe in light of touch regulation, maybe a few less taxes, kind of slightly nationalistic.
If I'm one of you, I want Trump to get beat bad. I mean, I'm talking about a 64-72 wipeout.
You know what happened after Republicans got wiped out in 64? They won in 68. You know what happened after the Democrats got wiped out in 72? They won in 76.
If he gets, if Biden, if Harris gets 280 electoral votes, your party is fucked. Because he's stuck with them the whole time.
They're not going anywhere. You want a life out.
What I want most of all is for my daughter to grow up in a place where she can start her own business more easily, where she's not competing against men in a swimming team or in a wrestling match. That's what I want most of all.
And so the Trump policies simply are better. You have less of the bad stuff, more of the good stuff, right? I don't know.
How was it coined when you were in the 92 election? Like, well, all those things that are supposed to be down or up, and all things must be up or down. I know.
I know. I know.
I can run circles around you on the economics of this. Let's go back to 280 votes.
What does Trump do if he loses this? Now, he lost the last election, right? Yeah, he lost the last election. Okay, that's a very important thing.
Somebody else is president. But, he hasn't conceded losing that last election.
My point to you, sir, is that gas prices and food prices go up and down. But this shit is forever.
Don't take my word for Biden policies being responsible for inflation. You can just ask the Fed in their statements in 2022.
That's not the question I'm asking. It was all on fiscal stimulus, which is the American Rescue Plan.
But I'm saying that stuff, that's the normal stuff of politics and economics. It goes up and down.

It's not that normal.

But wait, but wouldn't you concede that not conceding elections is a much bigger, more existential issue,

and that he's not going to concede this election?

Can you imagine, can you tell me a scenario where he loses, maybe even by more, and he concedes the election?

Can you imagine him saying, I've seen the results, and I'd like to congratulate Kamala Harris running a good campaign. It's impossible to imagine.
I don't have to imagine. I don't have to imagine any of it because I know the history of it and the history of it is he moved out of the White House.
There was a peaceful transition of power and there was an inauguration on January 21st. He tried everything not to do that.
Yeah, they tried to do the same unconstitutional process that Democrats did in the last three elections The Democrats sent fake electors The Democrats pressured the Justice Department The Democrats went to court and got laughed out of it. No, that never happened in any other election You're talking about utilizing the legal process.
Now, I disagree with the fact that there should even be a process to decertify an election. But Democrats did it three times in the elections prior to that.
Where was the hand-wringing then? Stacey Abrams has never said that she lost the governor's race in Georgia. And that's wrong.
Nobody wrings their hands about it. That's wrong, and it's a false equivalency to sending fake electors.
What do you think electors? What fake electors? What fake electors? What fake electors? I want to add two points. Michael Bloomberg said there's zero evidence that the economy, the last first two years of the Trump economy were in bed than the last two years of the Obama economy.
Period. The truth of that is, Trump inherited...
What did you say? Trump inherited a good economy. Biden inherited a crappy economy.
That's a fact. That's a fact.
That's not a fact. So inheriting economy matters when you count jobs? When you see a Democrat storming the Capitol and beating the shit out of a police officer, then I'm going to say something.
I definitely saw him beating the shit out of a lot of police officers and burning down a lot of buildings in the riots of 2020. But on the inheriting a good economy, can we address that real quick? Because that's often a talking point, and it's completely false.
By the time Biden took office, real GDP was back to pre-pandemic levels. In one of the quarters in the last year of Trump, 35 percent increase in GDP, then 5 percent, then 4 percent.
You were well on your way to a recovered economy by the time Biden got to take office. That's where a lot of those job gains were coming from.
And they were despite the fact that Democrat mayors and governors all over the country were destroying their own cities, destroying their own economies, keeping them locked down more than they needed to, just like here in L.A., just like in California, just like what Tim Walls did in Minnesota. These things all happened.
And so if you want to talk about inflation, what causes inflation? Lack of supply, too much demand. They injected a ton of demand, $2 trillion worth in American Rescue Plan, and then they screwed supply by screwing up and closing down factories and businesses.
That creates a perfect storm. Republican policies are not responsible for any of this.
Some of their economic conditions in the United States in December of 2020 compared to December of 2016. And I'm going to tell you what you're going to find.
It was a lot better in December. There was a global pandemic.
Again, you know, I try not to interrupt you because I have respect for you. I'm sorry.
I'm sorry. I'm sorry.
Go ahead. What happened was they assaulted the Capitol at the encouragement of him.
They are celebrating this on 5 September of 2024. Right.
And if a Democrat did something like that, I would go nuts. I'd want to haul off and slug them right in the face.
I wouldn't do it. I did go nuts.
Like, I hated it. Because I think they do it.
They are honoring these criminals. And I wouldn't, you know, and so a Democrat in Minneapolis, I'm not for that at all.
And by the way, you know, and saw a Democrat in Minneapolis.

I'm not for that at all. And by the way, you know, look what happened.
And so you got to admit, though, people go ahead. Again, these were people that assaulted the Capitol.
They were trying to hang people to act like what Democrats have done before, which is often something that Republicans, when we have them on my show, say when we talk about January 6th and the fake electors and Trump refusing to admit that he lost the election. There was barely a peaceful transfer of power.
They actually wouldn't even allow them to move forward with getting federal funding to start the transition for weeks. I remember it was because we found out about a little known position that no one in the federal government even really knew much about because of that.
But also, the difference then is Joe Biden went and certified the election. He was the vice president then, and he certified Donald Trump's election.
So did Mike Pence. There was not a massive...
Yeah, because Mike Pence was pressured not to buy Donald Trump. Maybe we could all agree that the entire process of certification is bullshit.
It's unconstitutional. Democrats opened this door.
Republicans ran through it. Congress...
I'm hearing booze in the audience. Yes, they did.
Three elections in a row. You cannot compare this.
I can because they're going through what they deem to be a legal process. I think it's illegal, no matter which party does it.
Because there's nowhere in the Constitution that says Congress gets to certify the election. They don't even use that word.
This is based on an old 1886 law from the Reconstruction era.

It's for a very different situation.

We need to get rid of that entire process.

We need to have a full page one rewrite of the Constitution,

not that there aren't some great things in it.

We have the oldest Constitution in the world.

Right, and some of it is ridiculous.

I live in a state with 40 million people,

and I get two senators, and the Dakota Territory gets four.

All right, we've got to go.

Thank you very much, everybody.

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