Ep. #500: Allan Lichtman, Dr. Debra Soh

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Welcome to an HBO podcast from the HBO Late Night Series, Real Time with Bill Maher.

Start the clock.

Right here with me.

Thank you very much.

Thank you.

You're very kind.

All right, so just in case.

Oh, so people.

Okay.

Okay.

All right.

Shut up.

Just get for people like me at home or like, that went on a long time.

Yes.

Because we told them before the show, this is our 500th episode.

And

people always say, what is the secret to your longevity?

And I'll tell you what it is.

This country is fucked up.

That's what it is.

It's fucked up.

They asked me if I wanted a balloon drop.

I said, yeah, if it's filled with heroin.

But,

I mean, we went on the air in 2003.

Since then, I mean, think about it: weed is increasingly legal.

Religion is on the decline, and less

and less people are having children.

You're welcome, America.

But enough about me.

Let's talk about the

coming world war that we're on the brink of.

I mean, have you seen this?

Tensions, of course, with Iran have been rising predictably ever since the Iran nuclear deal was scuttled.

But Iran announced this week that they are going back to enriching uranium.

Trump was furious.

How dare they renege on the deal that we pulled out of?

And then yesterday, one of our drones, $180 million plane, was shot down.

And Trump said this morning that the attack was

an attack against Iran, was completely ready to go.

Of course, he can't just bomb Iran or not bomb Iran.

He has to fucking do the reality show bullshit.

Will I bomb Iran or will I call the bombers back

at the last minute?

We'll find out.

So stay tuned.

So,

yeah, so he says he's ready to start a war.

He tweets out, we're cocked and loaded.

Which

exactly.

It's not a thing.

It's locked and loaded.

Cocked and loaded, we looked it up, is the name of a gay porn movie.

Really?

There it is.

Cocked and loaded.

with, I'm not making this up, with the subtitle, A Gang Bang Daddy Fuck.

Which is a pretty good summary of the last two and a half years.

It is, a gang bang daddy fuck.

I think

if a Martian came down and said to me, what is it like living under Trump?

I would say a gang bang daddy fuck.

So I'd like all of you out there to hashtag gangbang daddy fuck as a gift to ourselves for the 500th episode i want to see gang bang daddy fuck everywhere

gang bang daddy fuck gang bang daddy fuck

but so

drum tweets out yes we're cocked and mutter we're ready to go to war and then he says and i asked how many will die

And the general told me 150 people.

So 10 minutes before the strike, I stopped it.

You know, like he's MacGyver cutting the red wire.

I saved the world world again.

I mean, all he does, this guy, is create disasters and in the last minute pull back.

It's government by autoerotic asphyxiation, as far as I'm concerned.

You know what?

We couldn't have started a war this morning anyway.

We don't even have a Secretary of Defense, and Jared's taking a spa day.

So he, the president, did you see this kicked off his 2020, let's pay attention here, this is the big one, kicked off his re-election campaign in Orlando, Florida, a couple of days ago, and he made a very powerful case against President Hillary.

Really?

It's the same thing.

It's locker-up, fake news, drain the swamp, Trump 2020, exact same thing as 2016.

He's like an old car with the disc stuck in the CD player.

No matter how many buttons you push, you're going to hear, I'm too sexy for my shirt.

That's what you're going to hear.

But did you see this Klan rally he was having there?

His supporters, they have, I know we're not supposed to say they're stupid.

They have goldfish memory.

I mean,

because like three seconds after they pass the palm tree, they're like, did I see that thing before?

He's talking about the wall.

He said, it's beautiful.

I changed the design.

He said this.

He said, I made it stronger, bigger, better, and cheaper.

Wow, the balls.

Remember that wall that I completely pulled out of my ass and never delivered on?

Well, it's better than ever.

That takes a lot of balls.

Oh, they got balls.

They got balls.

Hope Picks, his former communications director, testified, if you can call it that,

before the House Judiciary Committee, refused to answer anything like anything, like literally where she sat in the room.

And yet, this is still progress for Democrats.

At least the Republicans are showing up in person to say, fuck you.

Even after 500 shows, once in a while there's a clunker.

But,

well, you never know.

We're live.

We're live live, always have been.

Anything could happen.

But Hope Hicks, she admitted, it's Sunday, she said, she admitted she told white lies for Trump.

Boy, that's Trump for you.

Even the lies have to be white.

Well, come on.

Well, in a week where all the questions are about Joe Biden and racism, I mean, the Proud Boys were demonstrating outside, happily marching outside his rally, and we found out this week he won't put Harriet Tubman on the $20 bill.

And that's kind of racist.

Can't even stand pictures of black people?

Even Klan members will buy the rice with Uncle Ben on the box.

All right, we got a great show.

Dan Savage, Liz Mayer, and Tom Hartman are here.

And a little later, we're speaking with Dr.

Deborah So.

But first up, he is a distinguished professor of history at American University and author of The Case for Impeachment.

Alan Lickman, Alan.

Howdy, Doc.

It's been a long time.

Yes, it has.

How are you?

I'm doing great.

Great to see you.

Okay, well, impeachment is certainly on a lot of people's minds.

That's what your book is about.

We're going to talk about that later.

But for now, I just want to say you have unique credibility when it comes to talking about what's going to happen.

Because back, was it in 1981?

Okay, you came out with this prediction model for elections.

13 keys that could tell us who's going to win.

You got it right every time except 2000.

Why'd you fuck up that year?

I didn't.

Oh, I'm kidding.

Florida did.

That's right.

That was a stolen election.

Right.

I wrote the report for the U.S.

Commission on Civil Rights that proved it.

Interesting.

They threw out one out of nine of every ballot cast by an African American compared to one out of 50 for ballots cast by whites.

African Americans, 95% Democratic.

Gore should have won going away.

Okay, so you really got everyone right.

I got that right.

All right.

Jeb Bush got it wrong.

All right, so the 13 keys we're talking about, I mean, some of them are very obvious, like incumbency, if the president is an incumbent, right?

If there's a significant third-party candidate, if there's a recession going on.

And then there's one, scandal, if the current administration is undergoing a scandal.

You say this is why we have to have impeachment hearings, but aren't they already checking the box for scandal?

The problem is you can't do it through scattered investigations in six or seven different committees.

That plays right into the hands of a president who you know is a master of distraction and deflection.

To nail it, you've got to have the formality and constitutional power and focus of an impeachment process.

You know, Nancy Pelosi has said, this president is such a criminal that he should be in jail.

Well, frankly, it's congressional malpractice then not to invoke the proper constitutional remedy of impeachment.

Okay, but

okay.

Anyway, that will always get applause in Los Angeles.

Does pretty well in Los Angeles?

But we're not talking about applause now.

That's right.

We're talking about how to win.

That's correct.

Okay, so that's the question there.

You're saying, and I'm not disagreeing with you, that if impeachment hearings will put scandal on the map as far as one of those keys, and you say the Democrats, there's 13 keys, they need six.

Six negative against Donald Trump.

Trump and they have now three.

Only three.

What do they have?

What are the three they have?

A midterm elections, the last.

Midterm elections of the party out of power

won the midterms.

Okay, that's one key.

No big splashy foreign policy success.

Right.

And the fact that Trump only appeals.

Kim loves him.

Yeah, right.

Yeah.

I consider that the biggest negative you can imagine.

That's a wash, right?

Right.

Nothing.

Okay.

And the fact that he only appeals to a narrow base.

He's not like Ronald Reagan, a charismatic candidate with broad appeal.

That's three.

Impeachment would be

limited appeal.

Right.

In his base.

He's not a race.

He's just in his base right impeachment is four

that gives him only a two-key cushion and it could trigger other keys like like if he gets beaten up which I think he would if there was a real impeachment process it could trigger a contest for his nomination or a third party right or maybe the Democrats will grow a backbone and you'll see a charismatic candidate emerge.

So you say charismatic candidate is one of the keys.

You don't see anybody on their side who is a charismatic candidate?

Bill, I never prejudge.

If there's one word I want to eliminate from the political lexicon, it is electability.

Because you do not know in advance.

I totally agree.

But who's charismatic?

I'm just into who fits that charismatic.

We don't know yet.

Not Tim Ryan?

Who?

You know, let me make this point.

For decades, Tim, we love you.

The Democrats have believed that the way to win elections is to pick someone from the centerline and establishment candidate, just like Hillary Clinton, Al Gore, and John Kerry.

And what do they all have in common?

They've all lost.

Democrats, you need to rethink what you're doing.

Wasn't Bill Clinton a centrist?

But he was off the wall.

He was out of the mainstream.

He was hardly an establishment Democrat.

Neither was Jimmy Carter.

Sure he was.

He was a governor of a southern state.

But whoever heard of him?

He was on What's My Line, the great program, and no one knew who he was.

Came out of nowhere.

But a centrist can win and many centrists have win.

I'm not saying you can't be a centrist, but you've got to be exciting.

You've got to inspire people.

That's what counts.

I'm with the mob here.

I want the winner.

I don't care if it's a centrist or the leftist.

I'm a little more left, but I'm for the winner.

Okay, so let me ask you this.

What about keys?

Maybe you haven't identified.

A lot has happened since 1981.

What about a negative key, which I would guess would be infighting in the party out of power?

There's a lot of that going on now with the Democrats.

Is that a key, a negative key for that?

No, I've studied that carefully.

And infighting only counts for the party holding the White House because it is a commentary on governance and running the country.

The out-party can fight all at once.

Look at the Republicans in 2016.

So like the Hillary Bernie fights had no effect on the Prime Minister.

No, that didn't because they were in power.

They were the empowered Democrats.

But the Hillary Obama, when they were challengers, challengers, had no effect.

So fight away, Democrats.

Don't worry about it.

I don't agree.

Do it.

Let's have a great debate.

Well, I don't know.

I don't know, because I think, again, your model, I think there's some things that are going on now that weren't around, like foreign influence, that's not a key.

It's Fox News.

That's new from 1981.

Two great questions.

One, foreign influence.

It can't be a key because you don't know in advance who's who's going to meddle, how successful they'll be, and on whose behalf they're going to meddle.

But if the Russians come back again, and I think Bill

Trump will welcome them again, and if this time they get into our voting machines, that would not just destroy the keys, that would in fact destroy our democracy.

That's why we've got to desperately do something to counter this kind of foreign meddling that sadly

the president is welcoming.

It's not a key, but I'm saying it could destroy the keys, but that's a minor problem because it would destroy our country.

I'm going to call that a key.

Go ahead and go.

Okay.

We'll have the Bill Markey.

And what about Fox News?

I mean, look, I saw this woman interviewed outside of his rally this week, and what do you like about him?

She said, he doesn't lie.

Okay,

that's kind of a key when like 40% of the country watches this channel that never reports anything bad that he does.

You know, Bill, we've had highly partisan media back from the days of George Washington.

Look at some of the media then, some of the newspapers.

Not in our lifetime on TV like Fox News.

But I think Fox News shows us something.

This is a deeper.

State TV.

We never had state TV, Alan.

Well, we've had state media newspapers.

But there's a deeper point here, which is illustrated by Fox News.

We have in America today two parties.

We have a Republican Party with no principles but a spine, and we have a Democratic Party with principles but no spine.

The Democrats have a chance to get courage.

You're not going to get it from the visit of ours.

You may get it from your show, Bill.

All right.

That's what I'm hoping.

Thank you, Alan Ligman.

Okay, let's meet him.

All right.

That guy's excited.

Now he does fall.

Okay, he appears in the HBO documentary Ice on Fire, and his latest book is The Hidden History of Guns and the Second Amendment.

Tom Hartman, back with us, Tom.

How are you?

All right, she's a former RNC spokeswoman who is now chief strategist of the Swamp Accountability Project.

Liz Mayer, great to see you again.

Okay, he's a columnist for Savage Love and host of the podcast Savage Lovecast.

Dan Savage is over here.

A very cockroad Ann Savage.

Okay.

Okay, so let's talk about what we were talking about with him.

I think this is a bit of a key when the Democrats are fighting amongst themselves.

I want to read this quote.

This is from last April.

One of the things I worry about sometimes among progressives in this country is a certain kind of rigidity where we say, oh, I'm sorry, this is how it's going to be.

And then we start sometimes creating what is called a circular firing squad, where you start shooting at your allies because one of them has strayed from purity on the issues.

When that happens, typically the overall effort and movement weakens.

Sounds like the kind of thing I say.

But that's Obama.

That's what Obama said in A.

I bring this up because, of course, Joe Biden stepped in it this week.

And, you know, look, I wish Joe Biden also would just pretend he was born in 2009.

He did not live before he worked for Obama.

He does not, to go back to the 70s and talk about how he was trying to make the point that he can work with anybody and we need to start working together, but he invoked two segregationist senators he worked with, not on segregation, but he worked with.

And now Corey Booker says he owes an apology.

But Biden said, those two segregationist senators, they never called me boy.

Okay, he said stupid things.

But it would be great if he remembered what it, you know, if his memory only started in 2009, he seems to have forgotten how utterly obstructionist Republicans were throughout

the Obama administration, but they blocked everything.

And Biden is pretending that he can work with these people who will refuse to work with anybody, refuse to work with a Democratic president.

Well, not only that, he was talking about Democrats.

I mean, he's saying I can work across the aisle with a couple of Democrats.

What?

Well,

I think where Dan's going with this, that's the most substantive critique that I've heard of the Biden comments.

I think a lot of this we have to remember.

Part of why we're having this become an issue is because Corey Booker is sitting at like 2% in the polls, and they're looking for any opportunity to get ahead.

Bill de Blasio is making an even bigger issue of it.

I don't even know if Bill de Blasio is at like 1%.

Is he at 1% yet?

He's got a lower approval rating.

He's got a lower approval rating in New York than Trump does.

So he's got some work to do.

So there's a bit of this that's being drummed up.

So I don't know.

I mean, I'm not a Democrat.

I am somebody who generally has liked Joe Biden, but I personally kind of worry less about the circular firing squads probably.

Can I just point out again that this, I think we have the footage outside of Trump's rally with these proud boys who were marching.

And these are, look at these guys, they're making that sign, that white supremac sign.

And they're welcomed as part of his base.

Okay, I didn't hear about that at all this week.

All we talked about was, is Joe Biden a racist?

Democrats, again.

That's because we know the Republican Party is controlled by the Republic of the Party.

Okay, but we're trying to win an election.

But I almost think that's kind of the point that I think Biden was trying to make, albeit not in a particular, a way that really translated well when you looked at the transcript and you looked at the written words, is I think he was trying to say, look, these guys were like the biggest assholes.

I can say that, right?

It's HBO.

Fantastic assholes.

The biggest motherfucking assholes.

Good.

Now that you've done that, I have no way of updating that, but that's fine.

This was also a good thing.

But the point here, I think, is that Joe Biden was trying to say, look, I worked with these major league assholes who sucked.

I still did it and I got stuff done.

Like, you know, the fact that I could work with them, like, this guy's so much of an asshole.

He's like that far over the line.

And I feel like that was kind of what he's trying to convey.

It's just that he did it in a very different way.

Can I tell that Merrick Garland?

I mean, you know, this also happened in the same news cycle that Donald Trump refused to apologize for continuing to call for the death sentence for five black guys and kids in

the Central Park V.

Who are exonerated by DNA advocates.

Yeah, exactly.

Who are completely innocent.

But my question is keeping our eye on the ball.

Can I read you Donald Trump's quote from his rally in Orlando this week?

Democrats want to destroy you and destroy our country as we know it.

Let me say that again.

Democrats want to destroy you you and destroy our country as we know it.

That's the level they're playing it at.

Right.

That's where they're playing.

And a Democrat needs to step up and say they want to take your health care away from you and destroy you.

And they are already in the process of destroying our country as we know it.

Republicans engage in projecting.

They're always accusing the other side of doing exactly what they themselves are doing.

Okay.

We all agree on these things.

We're talking about how to win.

Yeah.

Somebody's got to win the primary before they can take on trolls.

Well, no, we need to call this stuff out.

It's like calling concentration camps concentration camps.

Oh, my God, we can't.

We're going to get to that in a second.

But here's Corey Booker says, I'm disappointed that he, Biden, hasn't issued an immediate apology for the pain his words are dredging up for many Americans.

Are they?

No.

Are they really dredging up pain for many Americans?

Let me just add this.

I mean, so one of the things that I've done since these remarks came out is I have gone out of my way to seek out every African-American likely Democratic primary voter that I've talked to.

And one of the things that's very interesting here, and I will say this sitting in the state of Virginia, this shocks me but also doesn't surprise me.

They're really not that bothered by this.

In some respects, African American Democratic primary voters are like the ultimate pragmatists.

And these are the same people who in Virginia are the ones who, if you look at the polling about should Ralph Northam, who was the guy who was like, hey, for anybody who's ever put like boot polish on their face and everybody else is like, what the fuck are you talking about, dude?

These are the people who were like, no, he shouldn't resign.

And everybody else, I'm like, please go, please go.

But no, that's not how it is.

You're so right.

That's not how it seems.

Practicality in the African-American community that is completely lacking in the super woke white people.

And that's why.

That's more important stake for the African American community.

But that's exactly what I'm saying.

And that's why you see Clyburn and Lewis defending him.

And so part of me, I mean, I don't know.

I always imagine that

some real person who like sees this chattering going on among people who sit in places like this on the coasts, and are always talking about some nuts.

And they're like, what the fuck are you talking about?

Demanding an apology.

Demanding apologies for something he'd said 25, 14 years ago.

I need health care.

I'm getting $14 an hour.

What the fuck are you people talking about?

And these are also...

And these are also the same people who, I will say, having worked on the 2008 campaign and having seen how people responded to Joe Biden when he became Obama's running mate, like, I have many philosophical issues with Joe Biden, but it's kind of hard to have a really major problem with a dude who gets excited about ice cream, dogs, firemen, and super soaker fights with the kids of the White House press corps.

I mean, like,

none of those things are inherently objectionable, whereas then you have Donald Trump.

And I think when you look at what Democratic primary voters are looking at, I mean, again, I'm not one of them, but my guess is their major concern is kick the shit out of Donald Trump.

And if it's a guy who likes ice cream and dogs and firefighters and water pistols, like, okay, that's cool, that's fine.

Yeah, but is he going to be the guy who's going to kick the shit out of the city?

Yeah, well,

it's always easier and more fun to play the purist.

You always get the applause for that.

Sure.

I think the people who do the hard work, Obama was this guy.

He got a lot of shit for being, oh, you're not living up to.

No, he said, I was always a centrist.

I never said I was a radical leftist.

And he got a lot of shit from the left.

But he got things done

as much as he could.

It's the art of the possibility.

But sometimes he got things done because he was getting shit from the left.

The first 16 months, two years of the Obama presidency, he didn't do anything on LGBT rights.

Slow-walked it, didn't want to move on it.

And queer activists got in his face and he was pissed off.

And then he moved on it because he left the economy first.

Could we have some perspective on things?

The economy was going off a cliff.

He couldn't the first day.

Most important thing, gay rights.

I'm probably more with Dan on this, being one of the original Republicans who was in support of freedom to marry.

So I hear where you're coming from on that.

But I do kind of agree.

You know, Obama, one of the things I remember was really remarkable about the 2008 campaign was how long it took for the teachers' unions to endorse him.

Like, they just didn't want to do it.

And I remember when they finally did it, it was like a big day at the RNC.

Like, oh my God, we finally get to call him out on this.

But yeah, on education, he actually did a lot of stuff that was like bipartisan centrist across the aisle.

So there's some interesting history.

You mentioned the concentration camp thing.

Okay, there was a headline in the LA Times about a week ago that said, let's call the detention centers what they are, concentration camps.

Then AOC came out and said that is exactly what they are.

They are concentration camps and even invoked the term never again.

Now, they're horrible places.

I think we all agree.

It's just beyond the pale that America would do this to people.

And concentration camp, maybe they fit that definition technically, but there are certain words that we just associate with something truly at the ultimate end of horrendous.

Holocaust just means a big fire.

But we don't use the word, hey, let's go have a holocaust.

I'll bring the wieners.

So now you're down to the apology.

No one says that.

But you're the one demanding an apology and getting the police.

I'm not demanding an apology.

That's the wrong word.

That's a pretty special case.

Go ahead.

Well, at the same time that Trump is accusing the New York Times of treason, the penalty for which is death, we're upset because AOC is using the phrase concentration.

But are they concentrated?

Well, they're not.

I lived in Road for for a year.

The death camps were all built outside of Germany.

I lived just down the road from an actual concentration camp that was still preserved in Germany.

Andrea Pittsburgh.

Andrew, Andrea Pitzer, who wrote the books.

Yeah, people died there, but it was not a death camp.

Concentration camps were putting migrants and separating their children from.

And these children are dying.

Right.

Andrea Pittsburgh at the same rate they were under Obama.

Actually,

24.

Actually,

I was actually sent some information today that suggests that, yes, it spiked a bit and now it's actually come down.

But the point is, deaths in these situations are horrible.

We all agree that.

We can argue about the numbers, but the point is that we're going to be able to do that.

Andrei Pitsu wrote the history of concentration camps, One Long Night, a mass detention of people, often political prisoners, members of persecuted minority groups, I think.

Without trial.

That is literally what we were saying.

Well, no, actually, they do get a trial.

It just is delayed.

We wish it would take longer.

But they are there to get a trial, and they do often get a trial.

Come on, when we think of concentration camps, I don't don't know what you think.

I think of mass training, I think of experimenting on human people.

Concentration camps came first to

step on the road to the death camps.

Yes, and we need to use the language to describe what is actually happening right here.

You really think we're on the road to death camps?

We're on the road to fascism, and death camps is an aspect of fascism.

Wow, and concentration will call me an alarm wheel.

And if you want to take on Trump, start using language that's going to blow his mind about it.

I have to disagree with that.

I work a lot on immigration issues and looking at the polling on this.

Personally, yes, I think technically there is a point there.

And when you see members of like a Japanese-American internment camp community come out and say that they believe the language is not...

Yeah, George Shakai came out and said yes.

Right.

I take that point.

I was into it.

Okay, I take that point, but here's the key.

We don't actually need to use that language in order for that argument to be won.

If you look at what happened in 2020, no, you absolutely don't.

Language is the key to everything.

Language is how we can do it.

we don't take names and kick ass.

Use language.

Tom, with all due respect,

with all dimp.

Come on, what kind of wimps are we?

Tom, with all due respect, I'm a pro-immigration Republican, and I guarantee you I've seen volumes more of private data regarding the language here than you have.

I'm not saying that the concentration camp thing is inaccurate.

What I'm saying is, let's just assume that.

So you're saying it's accurate.

Technically it is.

Technically accurate.

Okay, but it has a connotation that goes far beyond, as so many words do.

Is the New United Technology technically guilty of treason?

It's so different from what we think of as concentration camps.

Can I finish the basic point that I was making here, which is this?

Merely talking about what goes on in these places and what's happening to migrants, you've already won the fucking debate.

You don't need to use the term concentration camp.

Why don't we talk about what's actually happening here instead of having 50% of the country go to the business of the term

Auschwitz?

The use of the term concentration camp has caused people to debate what is actually going on in the middle of the city.

No, that was already happening.

It was two fucking years we danced around.

Can we call these lies?

Is what Trump's saying a lot of people are going to be able to do that?

Call him a fucking liar.

No.

And it took us two years to get around to calling him a fucking liar.

These are fucking concerned.

That's not true.

That was already, this was already happening.

This was already happening, and you saw it months ahead of the 2018 midterm elections that this debate was already happening, and nobody was going to be able to do it.

It's so easy to get the applause.

But if you want to run a campaign based on reparations and concentration camps,

then it's going to be very hard to win the election.

I'm not saying you can't do it, but it's going to be very hard to argue that this is helping.

Anyway, let's change the subject and bring out Deborah.

She is a columnist for Colette and Playboy and Canada's The Globe and Mail, and who, according to the New York Times, self-deported from the academic track because the environment was inhospitable to conducting research.

Please welcome Dr.

Deborah.

So,

Doctor,

how are you?

Great to meet you.

Thank you very much for being here.

Thank you for having me.

Okay,

let's get it straight so people know who you are.

You have a degree in psychology.

I do.

You have a Ph.D.

in sexual neuroscience.

That's right.

Same as me.

Perfect.

So

you kind of got,

what you don't really have is your old job.

No, but that was my choice.

I know it was your choice, but they kind of ran you out or you thought you couldn't survive.

Tell us exactly why that happened, because I think you're onto something very important here, which is there is a disturbing trend in academia where political correctness takes a front seat to science and I think you were trying to just say this is the science and it ran afoul of political correctness and the next thing you know you're a journalist instead of what you were.

Absolutely.

So during the last few years of my PhD I had noticed that there was this huge wave of media coverage mostly in liberal media outlets and I still consider myself to be a liberal but I'm definitely not far left.

So this media coverage would show stories of young children who were gender dysphoric.

So these kids would say they identified as the opposite sex.

You know, they were born in the wrong body.

And so their concerned parents would say, what should I do?

And the coverage said that the best way forward for these kids is to let them transition.

And so the stories would say, you know.

Transition taking,

so socially would consist of being identified as the opposite sex, dressing haircuts, taking on a different name, using the pronouns, and then also potentially medical interventions like puberty blockers, and then potentially also cross-sex hormones and surgery later down the line.

So you said

not the science.

No, that's not what the science shows is the best way forward for these children.

Why?

Because most of them, when they reach puberty, they outgrow their feelings of gender dysphoria.

They're more likely to grow up to be gay.

This is consistent in the research literature.

This is not what you see in media coverage.

But the politically correct attitude is just whatever somebody says, says, I'm Jennifer, stop, you're Jennifer.

Your son is, say, Jonathan.

Right.

And I have to emphasize I do think gender dysphoria is real.

I do think transitioning can be beneficial for adults.

Sure.

I will use the pronouns that someone wants me to use.

I will be respectful.

I think it's important.

And I think trans individuals deserve equal rights, respect, dignity.

But in this case, the children, we have to do what is right for them from a scientific perspective because they're going to change.

It sounds to me, just as a layman, that it's part and parcel to what goes on a lot with parents and kids nowadays, which is parents take the path of least resistance.

You know, I want a new phone.

I want an Xbox.

I want to get rid of my penis.

You know,

well, I mean, whatever, you know, right?

That's a logical step.

Yeah.

And then.

Well, whatever.

And then the parents say, okay, is there, now if they start doing this, are you going to go, is there any going back?

Because I've read that once you take the hormones, you know, it shrinks the genitals a little.

So then you could, you know,

you're gay and have a small, and that's.

Right.

Or if they.

Now you're really fucked.

Or if they check.

It's a good thing we both have degrees in this, isn't it?

It really is.

So professional.

But the thing is, yeah, I mean, with cross-sex hormones, the use of pubertal blockers is off-label.

There is a study currently going on right now looking at the long-term effects, but in this climate, I'm not really questioning what they're going to find.

I know what they're going to find.

And you also say that professors now, you know, will not teach science.

They will not teach certain aspects of the science, right?

Because they are afraid that some kid in the class is going to videotape it and then put it online and they will lose their job for teaching science.

Like what science would they not teach?

This kind of stuff?

This kind of stuff.

Oh, Dev, no one's going to touch this kind of stuff.

I mean, the way it's talked about is that desistance, so that's what the term is called when a child changes how they feel and they don't feel gender dysphoric anymore.

It's branded as a myth.

So if you do look up this term, a lot of what you're going to find is people saying, non-experts saying that it's a myth, or if there are experts saying it's a myth, it's because they're afraid.

But definitely in terms of other things I've written about, sex differences is another thing.

You will.

Sex difference.

Yeah, in the brain.

In the brain, yeah.

So there are differences in the brain between the sexes that are biologically different.

Sure, that's why boys are saying I want to be a girl.

Well, you would think that

makes sense, but by some people's logic, gender is a social construct.

So I'm not sure how that feeds into people who are transgender.

Facebook says there's 58 different...

Oh, no, 72, Bill.

72.

Wow.

That's as many virgins as I.

Odd coincidence, but there are, and you say there are not 72.

No, there are two.

There are two.

Two.

So you say it's binary.

It's binary.

And that's the argument that some people say it's a spectrum and you say, no, the science does not say that.

And is that gender and also

sexual?

Both.

I mean, so it's trendy nowadays to say that someone identifies as non-binary.

And I say, you know, identify however you want, just don't tell me that that's what science says.

But what about like chicks with dicks?

Well.

I mean, is that a real thing?

I know it is on Pornhub.

Just so anyone watching, I cannot bring this up, okay?

I'm going to.

No, we know, but isn't that hermaphrodites?

Well, oh, I see, I see.

You know, I mean, how can you say that's not?

Intersex is a problem.

Yeah, intersex.

How can you say that's not a thing?

A difference of sex develop is what it's known for.

And there are some women born with X, Y chromosomes.

And they have

and or Kerkine syndrome.

Oh, yeah.

Wasn't there the famous Bond girl who was like,

I did.

I think you're thinking she's trans.

Yes, but I believe she was born with something that was chromosomal.

It feels like we're trivializing the experience of trans children.

It's not, I just want an Xbox, I want a vagina.

Okay.

And even if it's the case, although having a vagina is awesome, I guess I would say.

Even if many to most kids desist, a significant number don't.

And those children can benefit from puberty blockers.

No one can accuse me of being homophobic.

I said to my own son, who is straight, so straight, he told me and his other dad on two different occasions that he was gay.

And we were like, maybe, maybe not, let's wait and see.

I don't think it's transphobic for a parent to say to a kid who's experienced gender dysphoria, maybe you're trans, maybe you're not.

Let's wait and see.

And in the meantime, let's do the least harm.

And if that means socially transitioning for you, PCI, let's win.

And then we'll see down the road.

That can still be difficult for a child to detransition from.

You know, they will be teased.

They'll be told that they didn't know what they were talking about.

Children are going to be teased if they transition.

Being trans isn't easier than being gay or something.

Children are just going to be teased.

Let's just get real about that.

Like, kids are assholes.

Yes.

They are transitioning.

Absolutely.

I've always said that.

Kids are assholes.

Research has shown that if a child socially transitions, they're more likely to continue on and actually do medical interventions in terms of transitioning.

Can I ask you if that's necessarily a bad thing?

Well, I think, and this is what is considered controversial and even maybe transphobic to say this.

I don't believe I'm transphobic, but some people will say, and I think good clinicians in the field would agree that if a child can grow to be comfortable in the body they were given, would that not be an easier outcome for them?

Because then they wouldn't have to be on medication for the rest of their life.

They wouldn't have to go surgery.

I I mean it's these are really invasive procedures.

I want to ask you about sports because I see this a lot.

I read the sports section and there are

transitioned women, in other words born a man,

still kind of big and strong, who are now engaging in women's sports and frankly destroying women's sports because they're obviously going to wipe the field.

Yeah.

Because, you know.

They have an advantage.

They have a huge advantage.

And, you know, it's so weird because first of all, when the Russians and the East East Germans in the Olympics used to take shit and make, you know, was like, well, come on, that's really a man.

It was like, horrible, that's terrible what we're doing to win.

And now, in the name of this, it seems like we're encouraging it.

And I think about the regular, you know,

not normal, everything's normal.

I mean, traditional, traditional woman who's trying to run track and somebody now is kicking her ass who, you know, a week ago was...

not a woman.

Right.

I mean, I don't think that most trans athletes are transitioning for the the purpose of having some sort of competitive advantage.

However, I would say that one of my favorite situations.

But there are UFC transformations.

Oh, no, I was going to say, yeah, so I mean, I love UFC, I love mixed martial arts, and the guidelines state that for a trans woman to compete in the women's division, she must have had testicular surgery, so she has to have had her testicles removed and be on cross-sex hormones for at least two years post-surgery.

I don't think that necessarily accounts for, exactly, physical stature,

musculature.

So, like, in the interest of awokeness, we're watching wife beating.

You know, we're watching, really, I mean, that's what it looks like.

We're watching this person beat up the woman who can't compete on that level.

Well, I am definitely sympathetic to the other female competitors, and I mean, they can't really say anything.

They say things behind the scenes, but they can't say anything because they are afraid of being called transphobic.

And I mean, it's a high-context sport.

It's very simple.

There's just a lot of transphobes out there saying all sorts of transphobic things.

It doesn't seem like everyone who's transphobic has been intimidated into keeping their mouths shut about these issues.

It's not easier to be trans than to be gay.

And there's just so much anti-trans violence that I think is a problem.

Nowadays, identifying as trans gives someone a little bit more social cred than being gay.

I mean, I've had lesbians tell me this.

Out here on the coasts, maybe the same people who are doing the woke Olympics, but out there in the real world where trans women are being murdered at an absolutely appalling clip, I don't think that's the case.

I would say

that's what I was going to say is I would say, even if we're talking about out here on the coast, well, I don't know, Baltimore is technically on the coast, and I feel like living in Washington, D.C., I'm perpetually seeing news about violence against trans women in Baltimore.

So I don't even know if out here on the coast, who's arguing for violence against trans.

I don't know why this is.

But when we're in conversations where we say that trans identities aren't real, that trans people aren't saying that.

We are kind of undermining the legitimacy of somebody.

I also don't think it's true.

What I heard was

to question this.

What I heard was: wait, because it's a child and kids, you know, want to glom onto a lot of trends.

We used to say that people couldn't know they were gay until they were well into adulthood and there was no such thing as a gay child, and we don't say that anymore.

We know that there are children who are gay.

And I want to clarify, that's definitely a mistake.

I grew up in the gay community.

I love gay men.

I definitely don't think there's anything wrong with being gay.

But in this case, where the research consistently shows that most of these kids are not going to feel the same way as they get older, that's what we should follow.

If the research shows something in the world,

which is why I said to my own son when he thought he was gay, and he's not he's straight, straight, straight, you're straight, that we should maybe, maybe not, let's wait and see.

And I think that's the right response.

But in the interim, if he had wanted to identify as gay and come out as gay, we wouldn't have tried to stop him just because being straight is easier.

And so, in the interim, if a kid wants to socially transition for their own peace of mind and to keep them from committing suicide, I think that that has to be

a space.

Statistics are also inflated, but in terms of deciding to identify as gay and then change their mind, there's no medical repercussions from that.

Can I ask you one more super volatile question?

Sure.

That's what I'm here for.

I know you are, and I appreciate it.

Okay, so we are reading that younger people are having less sex.

Yeah.

And I've read that you sometimes think that one of the reasons could be because of a lot of talk about toxic masculinity and things like that.

You think that actually...

Toxic whiteness to, I mean, this is really, this is what's being taught on college campuses as normal and acceptable.

And I mean, some of the other reasons potentially why younger people are not having sex is that they're moving out later, so it's harder to have sexy time if your parents are next door.

Right.

And also, married people have more sex than unmarried people.

But

say that again.

I want to do a spit take.

But when you think about it, I mean, if this is what students are being taught, the men are understandably afraid.

I mean, I do not condone sexuality.

Men are afraid because they...

They're afraid that me too went off the rails, and they're afraid that maybe someone they had consensual sex with might decide.

Ten years later, yes,

they would come out and say that it wasn't consensual.

And I think also young people.

Actual people are worried about that.

Oh, yeah.

Really?

Yeah.

I'm old enough to remember when the sex panic was kids were having too much sex.

And now the sex panic is kids are having too little.

It's like, remember rainbow parties from 15, 20 years ago?

No, I think.

Google it.

It's fascinating.

It has nothing to do with gay people.

And it's, you know, one of the things I think is a factor in here is the availability of porn.

There are studies that show that as more porn became available, the lie that we were told was, you know, porn is a theory, rape is a practice, and the more porn you watch, the more prone to sexual violence you're going to be, or society's going to be.

And it was the opposite.

As porn became more available, rates of sexual violence went down, but also perhaps rates of sexual activity.

More people are at home jerking it than going out and sexuality.

Rates of sexual activity actually go up.

Rates of sexual activity are correlated, so more frequent sex is actually correlated with porn viewing.

But I was going to say, if young women are being taught at school that men are, you know, full of toxic masculinity that needs to be cured, what is your dating life going to look like?

If you think the men you are dating, if you're straight, if you think they're oppressing you and they're the patriarchy, you know, and they're awful to women.

So that's one thing I'm very concerned about.

I mean, I used to identify as a feminist.

I still believe in equality for men and women, but I don't think we need to denigrate white men.

And as an Asian woman, I'm definitely, I don't think we need to be racist towards white people to end sexism and racism.

How dare you?

All right, thank you, panel.

It's time for new rules.

Okay, new rules: since Costco sets up stations at the end of the aisles to offer free samples of the foods they sell, CVS has to do that with their medications.

I'm not saying knock me on my ass so I can't drive myself home, just enough to take the edge off waiting in line for my actual prescription.

New rule, someone has to tell the women in handmaids costumes that the shock value wears off if you wear them all the time.

If you bought a weird, ugly dress and now you're men at the world because you only got to wear it once, you're not a handmaid, you're a bridesmaid.

New Roll Tampa's Vayne Myers, who has an emotional support duck

for his anxiety, has to honestly tell us who he thinks goes through more stress, him trying to get through his day, or that poor duck when he brings it on a crowded airplane.

Let's make a deal.

We'll stop calling you snowflakes when you stop posing in a lace shirt holding your ducky.

New rules, since we all love shows about drag queens and we...

And we used to love shows about baby beauty queens, we have to make a show about baby drag queens.

That way, when ISIS kills us all, at least we'll deserve it.

Bravo.

Call me.

New rule, the alligator swimming in a Texas lake with a knife stuck in its head must be made part of the Texas state flag

as a way to say to the nation, we're Texas.

Jealous, Florida?

And finally, New Rule, sometimes you don't choose history.

History chooses you.

That was my theme two months ago when the Mueller report came out, that in light of a rubber stamp senate and a Stooge Attorney General, it fell to Robert Mueller alone to write the ship of state.

Mueller heard that call from history and let it go to voicemail.

In the upcoming election, I believe history has has chosen another person who, like Mueller, is uniquely qualified to perform the urgent task of unseating Trump.

By twist of fate, only this person checks all the boxes and positively answers the question I often hear posed, who do the Democrats have that we know can beat Trump?

And there really is only one answer to that.

And it's not Joe Biden.

I like Joe, but if we give him the keys, there's at least a 50% chance he gets in the car and mows mows down a farmer's market.

That's the problem.

Also, young people look at him like a typewriter is running for president.

So I can't say Joe is a sure thing.

Neither can I say that about Elizabeth Warren, who I like even more, but she's a three-syllable woman in a one-syllable country.

A lot of Americans see a woman with a bunch of of plans who seems to know everything, making demands for change, and they think, I already have a wife.

Bernie Sanders is an American hero in my book, but he's an.

But he's another one who has his cardiologist on speed dive.

I like Mayor Pete, but

but we must ask the question, is America ready to be led by a gay teenager?

He's 37, he looks 27.

He's the only veteran who came back from Afghanistan looking refreshed.

When he campaigns door to door, nobody answers because they're afraid he's a Mormon.

And I would be even more nervous if it was one of the dark horses in the race, Jay Inslee.

I've never heard of him, and he's been on this show twice.

I mean, I could keep going through the list.

There's lots of people I like, but when I ask, a sure thing,

no,

no, no, no, no, no.

But then one night, when I was self-medicating,

a name appeared in the vapor above me.

The only person who is a sure thing

is Oprah Winfrey.

I don't say that because I'm a giant fan.

I'm not.

Mostly, full disclosure, because back in 1997 when her show was a cash cow for ABC and my show politically incorrect moved to that network she demanded a second run of her show at night in the city of Chicago in what really was my time slot which cost us in the ratings but who gives a fuck now

That was a galaxy far, far away and Darth Vader's president now

What matters is Oprah alone checks all the boxes that a Democrat needs to win.

One,

it is crucial to energize the African-American base.

Oprah?

Yeah, I think a little more than John Hickenlooper.

She'll make black polls rise like a Kardashian.

Two, the majority of all voters are women, and 58% of the Democratic electorate is women.

So does Oprah energize women?

You think?

Women love Oprah more than they love those shops that only sell macaroons.

I think we have an artist rendering of a polling place on Election Day with Oprah on the ballot.

If Oprah's running, don't get in the way of women on Election Day or you'll be seeing the color purple.

Three, Oprah doesn't scare white men.

She's not their first choice.

That's Kenny Chesney.

But never underestimate the power of being in people's living rooms for decades.

That's what got Trump elected.

This is now a, as seen on TV, kind of country.

White men may not love Oprah, but she's as comfortable and familiar as a pair of cargo shorts with an elastic waistband.

If you're talking about the suburban dad in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, with an above-ground pool, three shotguns, a singing fish on the wall, and a sign that says, fuck the dog, beware of owner,

he may not be crazy about any of the Democrats running, but if he's fed up with Trump, I know he would vote for Oprah because he knows if he doesn't, his wife will never blow him again.

There really is no underestimating the value of celebrity in modern American politics, and that's the final box that Oprah checks.

I know some voters don't want a celebrity president, but face it, that rule went out the window in 1980 when Bonzo's co-star got elected.

It's not the way it's supposed to be.

It's not the way I'd like it to be, but we officially live in a post-literate, post-truth, starfucker society, and this is going to be the dirtiest campaign ever.

I worry most what Trump is going to say about the nominee.

For example, Elizabeth Warren has gone to great lengths to declare herself not a socialist.

I'm a capitalist to my bones, she says.

So, of course, Trump will call her a socialist 30 times every day until the election.

But no one worries about Oprah being a socialist.

Have you seen the home in Montecito?

And that's just the guest house.

But this is not an open letter to Oprah.

I know she isn't running and I'm not begging her to.

That would be for someone else to do.

I'm just saying I have Nate silvered the shit out of this.

And I am telling you that at this particular moment in history, in this particular election year, she is the only candidate who's a sure thing winner for the Democrats.

No pressure.

I'm just

I am just putting it out into the universe.

Like in that book, she used to promote the secret.

And you know what the secret was?

That Americans will buy anything if Oprah tells them to.

All right, that's our show.

I'll be at the Fox Theater in Detroit tomorrow at the Orpheum in Memphis, October 4th, and the Tavoni in Chattanooga, October 5th.

I want to thank Tom Hartman, Liz Mayer, Dan Savage, Deb Rousseau, and Alan Lickman.

Stay tuned for overtime on YouTube.

Where's our cake?

It's our 500th show.

Bring out the cake.

Bring out the cake.

Bring out the cake.

Catch all new episodes of Real Time with Bill Maher every Friday night at 10 or watch him anytime on HBO On Demand.

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