Overtime - Episode #438: Iran Deal, Trump Insults, GOP Tax Plan

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Welcome to an HBO podcast from the HBO late night series, Real Time with Bill Maher.

Okay.

Oh, look at that.

We're getting applause for nothing.

Okay, Rick Wilson, do you think Trump will face a Republican challenger in 2020?

Great question.

No.

Nope.

Why is that?

I think that all these guys will look at it, and they will watch the horde out there, and they will have Fox and Breitbart nuking them 24-7,

and every single one of them will walk away from it.

All right.

Nobody's serious at this point.

What does the panel think about the Trump administration's plan to replace their travel ban with more specific restrictions.

I don't know what that means.

What are the more specific do you know this?

Specific countries.

He was going to add a different country.

People that he doesn't like?

Specific people.

Will Trump rip up the Iran deal?

And what happened?

This is, you know, this thing where he goes, you know, I've made my decision, but I'm not telling you yet.

Until next week's sweeps.

Exactly.

It's like.

Sweeps are coming soon.

And in that time,

I will tell you.

Right.

February, May, and November.

That's when he announces his.

He wouldn't tell May.

She asked him.

May he said.

Oh, I guess he said.

But that would be such a terrible thing if he ripped up the Iran.

I mean, it's bad enough, the Paris thing, but that wasn't even a binding.

That was, you know.

Well, the most serious.

It's also not going to help with negotiating with North Korea.

That's right.

That's true.

You know, like, if we lose our credibility that we can actually abide by any diplomatic agreement, why not?

That is the equivalent.

Not as the equivalent.

That is telling Kim Il-Jong, don't bother signing a deal with me because it'll have no effect.

But what is interesting is that he's sort of chickening out on doing it.

By the way, one of the things that's striking to me is how little he has gotten done.

In his speech tonight, he was talking about all that he's done.

And what's striking at is how little he has gotten done, and that has not affected his people.

I have to say, his role, and it's what his people want him to be, he is the insulter-in-chief.

He is very good at insulting everybody that his people think have mistreated them.

And after he's done that, they don't need anything.

But very little has changed in the world with Korea, with Iran, with the Middle East.

And I think with Iran, he's going to maybe send it to Congress, but in the end, he's not going to change it.

Isn't it always amazing how even the people he's insulted seem to forget about it in a couple of days?

Meryl Streep's still pissed off.

Yeah.

Bill, the Republican.

Chuck Schumer is not a Republican, and he's called him a lightweight and insulted him up and down, and now Chuck's like a picture of the city.

Chuck Schumer just fits

his pants down on DACA a couple of days ago.

So Chuck Schumer is a smart transactional politician, and he knows that he can roll Trump by going in the office and saying, you really are a magnificent golden idol.

And Trump is doing memory.

By the way, can I add me.

I know I was hard on you.

One point.

One point.

One point on that.

I think one of the things that came out of that Trump-Schumer-Pelosi deal is very good news for the Democrats in 2018 in the House.

The Republicans were counting on demonizing Nancy Pelosi.

John Osoff was doing well, and then they went after Pelosi.

It's going to be very hard for Republicans now to say, oh,

you're going to go to Washington and vote with Nancy Pelosi.

And the answer is, yeah, like Donald Trump did.

He has legitimized Pelosi and blunted their weapons.

And one reason why Jackoff lost that race was because he didn't defend Nancy Pelosi, which is the disease of the Democrats.

He didn't stand up and

why is Nancy Pelosi

between you and me, that's over.

I understand that.

But I do think the more important point is that next time, he's not going to even be able to use that weapon.

He's not going to be able to attack Nancy.

They're not going to be able to attack Nancy Peter.

Oh, people will have forgotten by that.

No, they won't.

Oh, no, there's TV.

Now that's a shot on mine.

TV is an interesting thing because I, for example, cannot watch Fox.

And I have many, many Democratic friends who watch it to learn and to understand what the other side is doing.

And I can't do it.

And the reverse is that people are never going to watch now CNN, let alone the city.

They'll see the ads of Trump being nice to Nancy Pelosi.

And I believe this will substantially diminish the ability of a Republican candidate to benefit from discrediting a Democrat by associating with him.

Catherine, what can we expect from a Republican tax reform plan?

Oh, aren't you glad you got that quite well?

Hey, I write a lot about taxes.

Look, I couldn't.

Really, that's your thing?

Yeah, I write a lot about taxes.

Okay, then give it to us.

Well, first of all, it's not going to be tax reform.

It's going to be tax cuts.

And there's a big difference.

One is

about closing loopholes and making sure that it's paid for.

And the other one is just about a big giveaway to the rich.

And if anything, that's what we'll see.

The problem is that there are all of these.

Once again, my point, that Trump is not that different.

Yeah, exactly.

It's not like we hadn't heard that before.

It's representative.

It's not as easy as just cutting taxes across the board because there are a lot of these bells and whistles in how the Senate works that makes it actually very difficult to not have a paid-for tax cut.

So that's really going to be the challenge is fitting the puzzle pieces together.

And every single thing you would need to do to pay for it is really unpopular.

Right.

I mean to take away the mortgage deduction, is that ever going to happen in America?

Or state and local or things like the border adjustment tax, which nobody even remembers anymore, but that was supposed to be a big windfall.

There were a lot of things that were supposed to help pay for this, including actually repealing Obamacare.

Part of the reason why they've been so gung-ho about repealing Obamacare is because that includes tax increases in it.

And if you bundle all of that with the Obamacare repeal rather than into the separate bill.

Obamacare is not putting us into the red.

No.

No.

It's actually making a little money.

Because, you know, it was a redistribution of income.

When they accused him of that, he should have said, yeah.

Fuck yeah.

Exactly.

That's exactly what we're doing.

We're taking money from people who will never miss it and giving it to poor people who desperately need it.

Who need health care?

Right.

Bob, what were your thoughts on Jamil Hill, the ESPN host who criticized Trump on Twitter?

Right, she called him a white supremac.

Yeah, yeah, I don't know Jamil Hill.

I hear good things about her, but my thought is this.

She has a program every night on ESPN.

She has a platform.

Right.

What she did was inelegant.

Whether you more or less agree with it or not, it's inelegant.

It's not a good way to make a point.

You know, being on Twitter and going back and forth with people on Twitter, you know, long before it was ever invented, George Bernard Shaw said, do not wrestle with a pig.

You get dirty and the pig enjoys it.

If you're a bold-faced name, if you're a bold-faced name, why do you want to be engaged with some dope on Twitter because he said something and you come back at him and back and forth, back and forth?

She should go on her own program.

He's the president.

And he.

No, she wasn't responding to him.

Well, she called him a white supreme.

No, I understand.

But if she wants to make her point, she should go on her own program and make a fulsome textured

point.

Except that her program is

the list of people he's called.

Oh, I get that.

I don't agree with that.

But first of all, her program is on ESPN.

It's a sports show.

It would be completely out of place for her to, you know, say,

not really, because they talk about it.

Do you think Santa Gardevox is going to come back next year?

Oh, and our next topic is.

Good Met Reference.

Yeah.

Thank you very much.

Is Trump a white supremacist?

But Twitter is the appropriate.

She's a human being.

She's a citizen.

Why can't she say her?

I just hate this idea that nobody can say anything without somebody wanting them to go away because they didn't.

No, no, I'm with you 100% on that.

I just think that she could have chosen a better way to make her point.

And that way is available to her.

Accusing someone of treating Trump inelegantly is like saying someone was silly about the three stooges.

And by the way, I always thought Shemp never got his due.

He was like on utilities avenue.

He never got his due.

He was married to my cousin.

Shemp was married to your cousin.

Shemp Howard was married to Howard's cousin.

Babe Frank was Shemp's wife, my father's cousin.

You see, we learn something.

Every day.

By learning Shemp.

What a team.

My second cousin was W.K.

Is that true?

Right.

No, I'm bragging.

Wouldn't I have said a bigger name?

My second cousin was Jolson.

I mean, I would have gotten me, but no.

Touche is the prince.

Barney, what do you make of Trump's efforts at bipartisanship with Chuck and Nancy?

What do you think about that?

Actually, I think it reflects the fact

he doesn't mind if the Democrats take over, and he might even like that.

I believe this is a man who cares only about himself and his ego.

accomplishments without substance.

I mean, the thing about him is that he talks about accomplishments.

And again, on the health care care bill, every version of the health care bill has been different than every other version.

There was no consistency to any program on health care.

It's just we've got to beat those guys.

I think he's getting frustrated that he's getting some tarnish because of the Republicans' inability to deliver.

And I think what he's done with Chuck and Nancy, I think, helps the Democrats.

And I think he doesn't mind that.

I could see him switching parties and his followers going.

No, I think we already did.

No, I think he's not.

Right, exactly.

I don't think he wants to.

He doesn't want to party.

He doesn't want to party.

He doesn't want to be blamed for the Republicans.

And I think...

But the other thing is this, I'll tell you what I believe about the guy, he's, among other things, lazy.

He's not just.

And here's the deal.

Agreeing with Schumer and Pelosi meant no hassle about the debt limit being raised, no hassle about the rates.

He can go off for a couple weeks at Christmas.

It means he doesn't have to spend his Christmas with all that agitation.

I don't even think he was thinking that far ahead.

I think he was just sick of talking about it.

Yeah, but well, I'll be kept putting it in the middle of the morning.

And there's something that was something else about Christmas.

that he wanted to say.

He wanted to say, get it done.

But if someone did say to him, you're going to help the Democrats win, I think the answer in the back of his mind is, well, that wouldn't be so bad, because then I'll run in 2020 as the victim of all these bad people.

And I don't think he's from this planet.

And I don't think he does.

I'm glad someone is making that point.

He never sleeps.

Never sleeps.

He only eats hamburgers well done.

Right.

Steak.

And he never ever gets a cold.

He's never seen the wall.

He's never steak.

He's never is.

very cold.

No, no, during the debates he had like that really heavy breathing.

No, he does that.

He has that all I think we know it.

So maybe he's just like in a steady state.

But we know he feels stress.

I'm a stress eater.

I gain weight in tough campaigns.

The man is getting fatter and fatter.

I mean he look he claimed there's one superlative which he's entitled to claim that he has left out.

He is the fattest president since William Howard Taylor.

No, yes, I've said that.

I read today.

They have to, they they now have to butter the door frames of the Oval Office to get them up.

That's absolutely.

I'm not making that up.

I think his biggest problem is that unlike his life in New York, he can't get laid.

I think when he lived in New York, you know, he had a sex life that he enjoyed.

Not with Milani, of course, that's the wife.

What do you get?

But, you know, he left in the morning.

And Milani, I'll be home at 9 o'clock.

Okay.

And he has apartments.

He has houses.

He could have gone anywhere with anybody, hookers, Russians, peeing, whatever the fuck was going on.

And you can't do that in the White House.

I think that more than anything else.

You can't do that in the White House?

Yeah.

I'm going to get you.

Okay, Clinton proved that that was very.

He didn't get away with it in the White House, and he had to do it with the chunky chick who brought in the mail.

That's the only one you know about.

And it was.

Shame on you, Bill.

Who likes me more than

No, it's true.

I think that's Trump's biggest frustration.

But we'll talk about that again another night.

Thank you very much.

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