The Hockey Show: The Life of a Rose Arias

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Speaker 16 I have never seen a more demoralizing playoff team where you think you have them and then suddenly they score three goals and you're like, we do not have them.

Speaker 5 Welcome to the hockey show. My name is Roy Bellamy.

Speaker 13 Rosie is in the shipping container and Ethan is in the studio with me.

Speaker 20 Who let that happen?

Speaker 13 You know who let that happen?

Speaker 21 David Dwork, who of the hockey news.

Speaker 2 He is currently on assignment and by assignment, I mean he is, his wife made him take the family on vacation.

Speaker 26 The only assignment that matters. Yes.

Speaker 18 David, where are you? What's going on?

Speaker 26 I am in South New Jersey where my wife grew up.

Speaker 26 We're visiting her home right now, but we're about to head up to the summer camp where we met all the way back in 2002.

Speaker 28 You guys met at Summer Camp?

Speaker 26 We did. That's

Speaker 26 a long time ago. We were teenagers.

Speaker 26 We haven't been there in a while. She went there for like her whole life.
I only went there for like three summers working as a counselor.

Speaker 26 But now we're going back with our kids for the first time in like... I haven't been there since 2010.

Speaker 26 She hasn't been there, I think, since like 2015 or something. So it's been a minute.
So we're pretty pumped to go.

Speaker 29 What's the camp called?

Speaker 26 B'nai Brith Perlman Camp.

Speaker 13 Where is this?

Speaker 27 Is this in Pennsylvania?

Speaker 26 It's in Starlight, Pennsylvania.

Speaker 30 It's in Starlight, Pennsylvania. I went to camp.
It's in Wayne County.

Speaker 27 Oh, God.

Speaker 31 Oh, my God.

Speaker 12 This is great Jewish geography.

Speaker 13 Jewish geography. Oh, yeah.

Speaker 12 This is great Jewish geography.

Speaker 29 Classic Wayne County camp.

Speaker 30 No, I went to Waquayak.

Speaker 27 Okay.

Speaker 30 Should we bore them all with camp stories, David?

Speaker 26 No, dude, I'd like people to continue watching.

Speaker 32 15 minutes.

Speaker 20 We don't want time for that.

Speaker 26 You're familiar with Alice's, I'm guessing, right?

Speaker 33 Cow Palace.

Speaker 31 Yes. And Jericho.

Speaker 12 Those were the places that they would take.

Speaker 36 Hancock, New York, baby.

Speaker 33 Yeah, the red, the red,

Speaker 13 oh, what's the red awning over the movie theater?

Speaker 33 No, what's the red, the bar right there when you get into Hancock?

Speaker 26 Oh, God, the two-story bar.

Speaker 14 Yeah, it's called the Red Something. That was always how I knew I was like 10 minutes away from camp.

Speaker 26 What was that the MLB All-Star game that ended in a tie? I watched that game from that bar. The game in MLB? It must have been 2010.

Speaker 26 Or 2007. It must have been 2007.

Speaker 37 That's crazy.

Speaker 18 Don't you have pictures to show us or something?

Speaker 13 Oh, he's cutting.

Speaker 26 Well, I gave you a picture of like my wife and I from the day that we started dating from July 14th, 2002, which is like 25 years ago or whatever it is now. My math is terrible.

Speaker 26 But, you know, that's how long my wife and I have been together. That's when we were at camp.
So if you have the picture, you want to show it. It's very, very period.

Speaker 26 in terms of I have the frosted tips rocking and all that good stuff because it was 2002. I actually got really bad with the frost thing.
So I was playing hockey back then. I was living up north.

Speaker 26 So I started just bleaching my hair just to do something fun. At one point, I kind of looked like Slim Shady from like that 2002 era.

Speaker 26 It wasn't pretty. It wasn't pretty.

Speaker 22 Wow. Well, a lot has changed.

Speaker 32 It was 2002 the first time you met your wife?

Speaker 37 Wow.

Speaker 39 So what 23 years, huh?

Speaker 31 Man. Yeah.

Speaker 26 Yeah. Like I said, my math is terrible.
But yeah, it's.

Speaker 36 Now, let me ask you something, David.

Speaker 33 In this picture, it looks like you have something hanging from your ear.

Speaker 34 Do you still have, like, is your ear still pierced?

Speaker 26 No, the holes have closed up like you can see like the little dimples from the earrings, but uh I think I maxed out at five at one point I had like two on the bottom of each and then I had the cartilage at one point It's what we did how handsome what we did

Speaker 26 back at that time.

Speaker 36 I don't know common how handsome is Tworky.

Speaker 31 Yeah, you were were

Speaker 25 Thank you. You still

Speaker 26 that's how we rolled back then. That's when I was a when I was a hockey player trying to do my thing.

Speaker 34 Is that an MJ Bulls jersey?

Speaker 26 No, that's a Dennis Rodman Bulls jersey.

Speaker 31 That's even cool.

Speaker 34 That might be even cooler.

Speaker 21 Rosie, you have a video.

Speaker 18 Is this going to make me upset?

Speaker 41 So I have a video. It might make me upset, but

Speaker 41 David, you're the only one that can tell us if this is right or it's not right. Because when I saw it, I started laughing.

Speaker 41 I'm like, oh, I'm going to ask David because he's the only one that has played hockey and two is a goalie. So hit it, boys.

Speaker 20 Left.

Speaker 20 Right.

Speaker 20 Left.

Speaker 40 What comes after left again?

Speaker 20 Oh, boy, my favorite part of the game.

Speaker 20 Cut off.

Speaker 20 Yeah.

Speaker 8 Did they make Mackenzie Blackwood British?

Speaker 40 So, yeah, Mackenzie Blackwood

Speaker 27 is a great strat.

Speaker 32 What's your lateral movements, left to right?

Speaker 26 Honestly, Rose, I'm amazed at the accuracy of this.

Speaker 31 Right?

Speaker 26 That's almost like that's what goes through my head every pregame. I'm literally going left skate, right skate, left state, puff over the line, left skate, right skate.
So yeah, it's

Speaker 31 there you go. When that is, I'm just like, we, we, water,

Speaker 26 the puck's over there, but it's not coming over here. Now that guy has it again, but you better get off the like, yeah, what goes on in my head, it's it's very childish.

Speaker 31 I'm very accurate.

Speaker 20 Yeah, that's

Speaker 25 mentality right there.

Speaker 42 All right, so we were off last weekend, and we didn't get to talk about this news that came out.

Speaker 18 The sports division over at Electronic Arts announced that Matthew Kachuck would be the cover athlete of EA Sports NHL 26.

Speaker 23 All right.

Speaker 43 Now, on the deluxe edition, they have Matthew Brady and Keith Kachuk.

Speaker 21 And

Speaker 37 they got Keith Kachuck, by the way, in a blues jersey.

Speaker 13 And they got him like

Speaker 14 the thing I like, right, is that it's the video game versions, kind of, of the players.

Speaker 34 So, like, it's a very young version of Keith Kachuk, and he looks awesome.

Speaker 35 I love that they did this.

Speaker 12 This is such a cool touch.

Speaker 32 Yes, that's nice.

Speaker 24 There's a good-looking big Walt right there.

Speaker 18 So, yeah, that's great.

Speaker 41 Dad and son, they look alike.

Speaker 41 Brady,

Speaker 8 Brady and Keith look so much alike.

Speaker 26 It's a solid analyzation, Rose. Father and son look alike.

Speaker 44 It's the first Panther on the cover of a video game since John Van Beeswick on NHL 97.

Speaker 43 Now, I've had my complaints about the EA Sports NHL franchise.

Speaker 2 I mean, it's been bad for the past 10 years.

Speaker 18 I'm hoping that it is much better.

Speaker 44 They seem to be rewrapping the Be a Pro mode.

Speaker 39 So, yeah, I'm really hoping that this is going to be a good game this year.

Speaker 41 It has something to do with my fail of the week.

Speaker 20 Oof.

Speaker 33 That's always my favorite.

Speaker 12 I always like the Be a Pro mode.

Speaker 33 Like, people always kind of play it for Ultimate Team or Dynasty, but I always like to be a Pro because it's just, it's fun.

Speaker 11 You feel like you're... No.

Speaker 20 I mean, you created a player.

Speaker 26 I mean, it's just so much work. Like, I just like to log on.

Speaker 26 I like to be my favorite team, and I like to make them beat everybody and win the stanley cup that's why i play madden it's the only way to make the dolphins any oh that's a good point yeah so you're a franchise road type of guy yeah no for sure i want to start my team i want to play i want it to be accurate to like the current nhl team and i want to make them do like the best possible stuff that you know it's like fantasy land for me that's a good thing i think i got a veggie on the panthers back in the day well he technically was almost the draft was not

Speaker 26 that is one of the sneakiest things any team has ever tried to do and i absolutely love that the panthers can you imagine if that had become the norm, though?

Speaker 26 And like every draft year, you had people calculating leap years for guys and trying to like sneak one in there. Like, that would have been a crazy

Speaker 26 precedent to set.

Speaker 34 It's very, very smart.

Speaker 46 It's why Rick Dotley's name is on the cup.

Speaker 18 Wins and ferals of the week is presented by Jagameister.

Speaker 38 Serve it code or don't serve it at all.

Speaker 24 Jaegermeister, damn, that's code.

Speaker 38 For more, visit yeagermeister.com, drink responsibly.

Speaker 23 David, from currently in New Jersey, please give us your win.

Speaker 26 My win of the week from Mount Laurel, New Jersey goes all the way over to Australia. Oh my gosh.
The Australian Ice Hockey League.

Speaker 26 Former Florida Panther David Booth is tearing that league up right now.

Speaker 26 They're about halfway done with their season. He's played only 11 games, and yet he still has 25 goals and another 25 assists in 11 games for the Melbourne Ice.

Speaker 26 And I think you just played the replay of this ridiculous masterpiece spinning goal. He scored against the Brisbane Lightning, another great name in the Australian Ice Hockey League.

Speaker 26 David Booth will be 41. Oh, is it Brisbane? Not Brisbane? Well,

Speaker 26 that's my Miami accent.

Speaker 8 There's an Olympics there in like 2032.

Speaker 16 Well, I hope ice hockey.

Speaker 26 It wouldn't be summer Olympics. It would be summer, not winter.
But anyway, David Booth is like almost my age.

Speaker 31 80s.

Speaker 26 He is still tearing it up in hockey. We just saw him.

Speaker 26 Wasn't he at that alumni game when the All-Star game was here? Yeah, a couple years ago.

Speaker 31 Now, can I ask you something, David?

Speaker 22 Sorry.

Speaker 14 I don't know a lot, admittedly, about the Australian Hockey League, but I saw the score in that game was like 8-7.

Speaker 33 Are the rules different or do they just not give a shit about defense over there?

Speaker 35 Excuse my language.

Speaker 26 The rules are not different

Speaker 26 from the games that I've watched.

Speaker 26 I mean, the rules look pretty similar. I think it's just more,

Speaker 26 for lack of a better term, Australia, it's more beer league for pro league than what we see over here, which look, it looked like a lot of fun. The fans were having fun.

Speaker 26 You couldn't hear the announcers on that clip that we played, but even they were like going crazy for it. So it just sounds like everybody's having a great time over there, especially David Booth.

Speaker 45 I got a great win this week.

Speaker 24 This is coming out of PWHL, the Professional Women's Hockey League.

Speaker 13 Tim Hortons and Barbie have released a hockey player Barbie doll.

Speaker 41 Let's buy one for the hockey show.

Speaker 37 Let's buy one for Claire.

Speaker 20 Well, for Claire, but also for the hockey show.

Speaker 18 Well, that's going to be difficult because it's currently sold out.

Speaker 38 In Canada, every $5 from each sale will go to the Grindstone Foundation, who who will help girls who face financial barriers play hockey.

Speaker 24 There's also some limited edition dolls of Sarah Nurse.

Speaker 2 That's my girl.

Speaker 40 And Marie-Philip Poulin are, well, they were available.

Speaker 18 I say they were available because I just said they are currently out of stock.

Speaker 44 They have so much.

Speaker 26 Will they be coming back into stock? Like, can we get them?

Speaker 25 Yeah,

Speaker 26 that's really cool, though.

Speaker 16 Yeah, and it has very what took so long, though.

Speaker 26 Why are we just now in 2025 getting our first hockey Barbie? Because it's like a Barbie for everything. There's like, you know, ventriloquist Barbie, mime Barbie.

Speaker 26 Why are we just now getting hockey Barbie?

Speaker 18 I don't really think that they've ventured into sports all that much.

Speaker 13 So that would probably be one of the problems.

Speaker 41 Two years ago, so

Speaker 20 Caitlin Clark Barbie.

Speaker 26 We need Rosie. We need the Barbie version.

Speaker 20 We need Rosie instead of Barbie.

Speaker 29 That's what we need to Barbie. That's a good idea.

Speaker 30 Oh, man.

Speaker 41 Everybody will buy it.

Speaker 16 The Rosie line.

Speaker 21 Ethan, you'll win.

Speaker 32 My win of the week, guys.

Speaker 14 Not normally somebody I would hand out a win to, but I mean, this is one of the great moments in his life.

Speaker 36 I mean, he finally got a ring.

Speaker 33 Leon Dreisidel got hitched this summer.

Speaker 14 Congratulations to him.

Speaker 30 It's the first ring that he has.

Speaker 9 You got it right.

Speaker 34 Hopefully, it'll be the last because it seems like the Panthers.

Speaker 9 Hopefully, he doesn't get a divorce.

Speaker 37 But no, I'm talking about him.

Speaker 30 I don't want him to get a stay in the cup ring because I want the Panthers to keep winning the Stay in the Cup.

Speaker 36 Anyway, this picture of Leon Dreisidel rules so hard.

Speaker 30 It's his wedding.

Speaker 36 He's taking off his dress shoes and putting on his slides that he'd been wearing around all weekend.

Speaker 8 Smoking a cigarette and a dart.

Speaker 13 Yeah, that's the least surprising thing I've ever seen.

Speaker 8 That's exactly how your night should end at your wedding.

Speaker 39 Yeah, with a cigarette getting lung cancer.

Speaker 26 My wife would have kicked my ass if I smoked a cigarette.

Speaker 14 No, you know what?

Speaker 33 It's your wedding night, man.

Speaker 26 Have some fun. Yes, and I'd like to enjoy my wedding night, if you know what I mean.

Speaker 33 Let loose a little.

Speaker 31 Yeah, Rosie.

Speaker 16 Piss off my wife on day one.

Speaker 41 Okay, so don't cut me off. Okay, my win of the week goes to.

Speaker 26 That's a great intro.

Speaker 41 I'm telling you, this girl knows you're controlling the nights yeah i know this girl knows what she's doing she's very intelligent and this clip is gonna just sums it up up because i think we have to talk about her and she just announced her new album so let's go

Speaker 47 as we all know you know you guys have a lot of male sports fans that listen to your podcast

Speaker 47 and um

Speaker 47 i think we all know that if there's one thing that male sports fans want to see in their spaces and on their screens it's more of me

Speaker 41 That sarcasm there is just epic.

Speaker 20 She knows.

Speaker 30 She's like, nobody wants to know.

Speaker 26 I really like her talking voice. Like, I know she's known for singing, but I really like her talking voice.

Speaker 20 It's nice.

Speaker 41 She's so calculated that that's why she's a billionaire. So she's.

Speaker 19 That's a good joke she had at the end.

Speaker 20 It's true.

Speaker 40 It's true.

Speaker 9 The last thing I want to see more of when watching sports is Taylor Swift. I've seen it.
She's very sarcastic.

Speaker 26 Well, that was pretty good, though, when she was on with the Kelsey brothers.

Speaker 26 I mean, I've seen a lot of that over the last couple of days, and it's actually entertaining for somebody that's not, you know, I've got Taylor Swift songs on my phone. My kids love them.

Speaker 26 I'm not like a Swifty, but I did enjoy the post-watch.

Speaker 35 What's your favorite Taylor Swift song, David?

Speaker 26 Oh, God, I don't know. I don't know if I have a favorite.

Speaker 16 I like one of them. Like, I could name, like, shake it on the fanny.

Speaker 17 Yeah, I don't know. That's the one I like.

Speaker 40 I don't want to hear your favorite song.

Speaker 13 That's the song I like.

Speaker 24 I'm moving on to fails.

Speaker 13 David, what's your fail of the week?

Speaker 26 Naming Taylor Swift songs.

Speaker 26 My fail of the week came on Wednesday over at the Helinka Gretzky Cup, which this year is taking place in Chechnya and Slovakia.

Speaker 26 There was a really cool moment between a US player, a referee, and a German goaltender. So if we can put the audio up for this, the US player shot it on the goalie after the

Speaker 9 crowd.

Speaker 20 Hey, six! Six! Go to the goalkeeper! Go to the goalkeeper! Go to the goalkeeper!

Speaker 29 Six!

Speaker 29 It was us and the missile!

Speaker 26 The referee is yelling at the US player.

Speaker 31 You go to the goalkeeper.

Speaker 9 You go to the goalkeeper. It's not for me.

Speaker 20 Go to the goalkeeper. Go to the goalkeeper.
Go to the goalkeeper.

Speaker 16 Go to the goalkeeper.

Speaker 9 You don't want to give a penalty.

Speaker 8 Go to the goalkeeper. Now that's going to be our...

Speaker 29 And the goalie is like, you believe on the powerful.

Speaker 20 You go apologize right now, or I am giving you a penalty.

Speaker 26 So that's definitely a major fail. I love that the referee is like getting the back of the goalie.
You don't shoot it after the whistle. Everybody knows that's a no-no.

Speaker 26 But the apology instant, you know, I kind of like it.

Speaker 39 All right, my fellow of the week uh is a promotional video shoot, and this one went a little bit too far.

Speaker 37 This is crazy, yeah.

Speaker 23 Bowie, as you know, is the Seattle Kraken mascot.

Speaker 43 And Bowie and some others went fly fishing at Katmai National Park in the Pacific Northwest when a brown bear showed up.

Speaker 22 Please play the video.

Speaker 48 Now, while we were fishing,

Speaker 48 we had a pretty close call with a couple bears.

Speaker 9 Oh, I gotta break down.

Speaker 5 Hey, Sam, we got a bear. We gotta move down.

Speaker 9 Oh, my God. Look at that thing.
It's a big bear. It's so cute.
And Bui didn't even run. Like, I was like a bad guy.

Speaker 9 Who hired the bear?

Speaker 9 Ron McGill told us. Don't run.
Low and slow, right? Low and slow. Low and slow.

Speaker 5 I would have run there.

Speaker 26 I'm gonna scare it away with my head.

Speaker 9 Oh.

Speaker 5 It doesn't like Bui.

Speaker 9 The bear charged Buoy.

Speaker 26 Yeah.

Speaker 26 When the bear starts galloping,

Speaker 48 that's where my whole look. So we got out of it okay, but uh it was it was uh a close call like the bear's galloping at them and nobody's moving like they're just like strolling.

Speaker 26 What the hell?

Speaker 14 I was listening to what chaos yesterday and they were doing a whole segment.

Speaker 35 Shout out to what chaos by the way. Love those guys.

Speaker 36 What would they have done if Bowie if something had happened to Bowie?

Speaker 20 Hey bear! Hey bear!

Speaker 13 Ethan, you fail.

Speaker 33 My fail of the week comes from so I don't know exactly where this comes from, but this is Patty Kane's kid, Patty Kane III, and Alex Alex DeBrinkett's kid, Archie DeBrinket, going at it with each other.

Speaker 30 Having a little tussle on the ice here. You got to love these kids just going at it.

Speaker 14 Not the greatest fighting strategy, I would say. None of them stayed on their feet, just kind of rolling around on the ice, but you got to love it.

Speaker 41 Rosie, you're from. Hey, my fail, I just want to put the picture there because

Speaker 41 EA Sports did a simulation, and we can laugh about it.

Speaker 20 Yeah.

Speaker 41 That was my fail all the week.

Speaker 31 How about that?

Speaker 26 Yeah, Yeah, they were definitely wrong.

Speaker 45 For those on DKN, we have Don Lucisian from the Athletic coming up next as our guest.

Speaker 38 You can find us on YouTube, Lebertard and Friends. You can click on the playlist tab and click on our folder to see Don Lucisian, who's coming up next.

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Speaker 7 Folks, the leaves are turning.

Speaker 34 The weather's getting a little chillier.

Speaker 3 That means the football games are more important.

Speaker 37 That means football time.

Speaker 3 Should be Miller time.

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Speaker 5 Don Bustisson is on the show right now.

Speaker 18 He's the national NHL writer for the athletic.

Speaker 43 He recently wrote an article about how the 32 franchises in the National Hockey League are efficient in their roster building and using their money.

Speaker 42 Now, I can give you the top five and the bottom five to save time.

Speaker 42 All right, the top five: we have Tampa at A plus, the first, second, Carolina A plus, third, Colorado, A plus, and then we get into the A's.

Speaker 44 Florida has an A, the fourth, Ottawa has an A, they are fifth.

Speaker 46 And the bottom five, 28th is Anaheim at a C.

Speaker 2 The Islanders, 29th with a C.

Speaker 42 Nashville D plus, they are 30th, Chicago D plus, 31st.

Speaker 13 That's a big woof right there by the way. Yeah.

Speaker 23 And Seattle D plus at 32.

Speaker 35 So that's the Chandler-Stevenson contract.

Speaker 37 That is true.

Speaker 37 That's a bad contract.

Speaker 38 What went into this formula, Don, Dom? And

Speaker 43 can you tell me why the New York Islanders aren't dead last in this situation?

Speaker 13 And the street continues, Dave.

Speaker 16 So, what goes in this formula is I first rate every player and I have a model for that where I look at how many points each player scores, how they drive play, who they play against, who they play with.

Speaker 16 And I have something that's sort of like war-like if you follow baseball. So when's a bow replacement.
And then I just convert that into

Speaker 16 how much that should cost on the open market. I then apply an age curve using comparable players from the past to see how each player ages.

Speaker 16 And then I apply that to the future cap growth to get how much each player's contract should be worth. I added it all up for every team, see how likely the contracts are to be valuable.

Speaker 16 And you end up with the Islanders in 29th, not 32nd. And that is because they do have some good contracts on the books, and they don't have a lot of horrible ones like Seattle or Nashville.

Speaker 13 You have

Speaker 2 Tony DiAngelo at a B.

Speaker 17 Why?

Speaker 16 I think if you look at someone like Shane Gossespear on Carolina, where they are a pure like power play quarterback kind of vibe and bring offense, usually those players don't cost a lot on the open market, but a model like this might view them more favorably for their offensive output.

Speaker 16 And with Noah Dobson gone, D'Angelo should get the bulk of the power play time

Speaker 16 for the Islanders. i

Speaker 16 i think he's probably priced fairly and my model is probably wrong about him and wrong about gossip spare because there's a reason teams don't pay those sort of players a lot but that is why he's uh he's rated high and same as gossip spare for carolina seems the model doesn't account for some of the things you don't like about tony d'Angelo Roy.

Speaker 17 Yeah, that's true.

Speaker 43 The content of one's character.

Speaker 24 Convince my producer Ethan here as to why the Florida Panthers shouldn't be number one on the list.

Speaker 16 I mean, I was personally surprised they weren't number one. I think the reason is they have won two Stanley Cups.

Speaker 16 They can sort of do whatever they want right now, and that includes the Marsha and Bennett contracts, which I think are

Speaker 16 probably on the more expensive side compared to what they usually do. Usually they get incredible deals.
You saw on Reinhardt, Barkov, Kachuk, Forsling, even Ekblad this year.

Speaker 16 But Marshawn Bennett's seen sort of like luxury contracts where both guys wanted to get paid. And I think aptly so, considering they've been underpaid for a fair bit of their career.

Speaker 16 Marshawn, I think what's important here is the cap hit, which is 5.3, which for the next three years is going to be incredible.

Speaker 16 But there is no precedent for a player, even of his caliber, playing to 43 years old.

Speaker 16 So that is where the value just drops off significantly because the expectation is he's not going to be very good when he's 42 years old. But he may prove us wrong.
He may prove me wrong.

Speaker 16 He may be this incredible player still at that age, but

Speaker 16 the term length is the big thing. It's the same with Sam Bennett, who I think is a very complicated player to price because during the regular season, he might be a 6 million player.

Speaker 16 During the playoffs, he's a 10 million player. So you see how you get to 8 million for the Panthers.
And I think...

Speaker 16 8 is probably the limit I would go to for him as well. I wrote about that extensively because I just do think it's a fascinating deal.

Speaker 16 But the model is really only considering his regular season output erroneously, obviously, because he's such a playoff demon.

Speaker 16 But those two deals,

Speaker 16 they're deals Florida had to make to extend this championship window because they are firmly in it.

Speaker 16 And the next three years are more important than the four years after that, where those contracts might become a bit more problematic.

Speaker 40 So, Dom,

Speaker 28 I love the athletic, and I think you guys do a tremendous job.

Speaker 14 And I was reading the

Speaker 46 worst you softening it up.

Speaker 33 No, I do.

Speaker 30 I do.

Speaker 33 I read the athletic all the time.

Speaker 36 And I was reading the 10 worst contracts article.

Speaker 14 The guy you just brought up, Sam Bennett, made the list at number eight over Cody Cece.

Speaker 27 I understand that that's simply what the model is putting out there.

Speaker 33 And it's not you saying it.

Speaker 8 And I think you do a great job in the article of clarifying: look, we all know that this isn't really what Sam Bennett's value is, that he's more of a valuable player in the playoffs.

Speaker 34 So I guess my question is kind of hockey has always seemed to me like a very difficult sport to quantify.

Speaker 33 So, and you do a lot of quantifying of hockey. So, where do you, in your analysis, kind of let

Speaker 36 the quantification end and start doing things with your eyes?

Speaker 34 And how do you make up the difference between what your eyes say and what the numbers say?

Speaker 16 I think I just try to always bridge the gap as much as possible between analytics and the eye test and improve my model in that way. Two years ago, I think one of the biggest gaps was

Speaker 16 that it would often rate third-pair defensemen a little better than it should and it rated first pair defensemen a little worse than it should. And

Speaker 16 if you talk to any hockey person, if you just watch the game, you're like, there's a reason this guy is playing top pair minutes. There's a reason this guy is not getting in the top four.

Speaker 16 And I think the numbers sort of obfuscate the difference between playing the top lineup and playing the bottom.

Speaker 16 So, I worked fairly diligently to account for quality of competition, better, quality of teammates, and

Speaker 16 get to a point where it's not overrating players that play soft minutes and giving credit where credit's due to players like Forsling, players like Slavin, who play these extremely difficult minutes.

Speaker 16 And there'll still be lapses in judgment. And a lot of time, it's just trusting your gut and trusting what you see as well.
But

Speaker 16 understanding that where there is a gap is always where things are interesting. And when you talk about Bennett, what he does is quantifiable in the playoffs.

Speaker 16 And so the gap is not between the eye test and the analytics. It's between what's quantifiable in the playoffs and what's quantifiable in the regular season.

Speaker 16 Where in the regular season, it does seem like he saves a bit of energy because if he played the way he did in the playoffs all year, he would not make it to the playoffs.

Speaker 16 I think that is something where you just have to use a bit of common sense and also use the numbers to see: is this just something that's random? For a lot of players, it is.

Speaker 16 They might be like a one-playoff wonder. Villy Lino comes to mind from a decade ago.

Speaker 16 Bennett seems to do this every year to the point where you watch him, you see him do it every year, and you think, I think this is probably real to the point that the next thing I do want to look at this model is

Speaker 16 how much of the small sample size size playoff data should I be incorporating? Because right now it is none. And generally for like 90% of the population, that'll probably work.

Speaker 16 For players like Bennett, for players on the team I cheer for in Toronto, it also does not work. So there's that gap I think I still need to bridge where

Speaker 33 sorry, I don't want to interrupt you, but if you don't mind me asking, do you not incorporate playoffs?

Speaker 36 Because

Speaker 36 some guys play in the playoffs and some guys don't, and some guys play a number, you know, go deep in the playoffs, and some guys play one round in the playoffs. So it would throw off the data.

Speaker 36 Like, what's the reasoning there?

Speaker 16 There, it's a bit of that. It's a bit of the fact that it's a small sample where if a player plays really poorly for four games in the regular season, it means nothing.

Speaker 16 If he plays really poorly in the playoffs, it means everything. And sort of that can throw off the data, but it's also us taking steps to improve things

Speaker 16 in the right order. So if I was not qualifying, quantifying quality competition very well before,

Speaker 16 I would not be able to look at playoff data appropriately because there's a big difference between

Speaker 16 the Oilers playing a Soft Kings team every year and Florida and Tampa battling it out. Huge difference in quality competition where you'd want to account for

Speaker 16 how difficult it was, where

Speaker 16 you might be able to make a bit more excuses for nikki dekuchrov playing not as well because he is constantly going up against barkov and forzling every shift compared to the regular season where he's getting a nice mix of not just florida but also buffalo and this year boston was pretty terrible so it's something you just you can't just do everything at once and i'm only one man so of course uh this is the the next step where now that i have a better understanding polity competition, I can apply it to playoffs and see how

Speaker 16 predictive it is adding. Because I have looked at it before when I didn't have proper quality competition data and it said, just use regular season data.
The playoff data is noisy.

Speaker 16 But now that this is accounted for, I think the answer will be different. We're seeing that transpire with a player like Bennett.

Speaker 26 Tom, I wanted to ask you about some teams that I think made some big improvements this offseason. I know you kind of covered on it a lot last month after free agency and everything kind of shook out.

Speaker 26 But two teams out west who nobody really thinks much of at this point.

Speaker 26 Talking about San Jose, who was bottom of the league last year, I think they finished like 40 points out of a playoff spot and Anaheim, who they were okay.

Speaker 26 They were still like 20 points out of a playoff spot, 10, 20 points or whatever it is.

Speaker 26 But I think both of them did a lot to improve this offseason, whether talking about San Jose bringing in like Skinner and Godette and Orlov, the Ducks, Kryder, Granlund. They got

Speaker 26 our buddy Chicken Wing out of New York last year too. So they've got some decent guys there as well.

Speaker 26 But just in terms of offseason improvements san jose and anaheim for sure but who do you think are going to make the biggest jump this year from last year

Speaker 16 it is always a tough question because a lot of times when you see these big jumps they're sort of unexpected like last year

Speaker 16 uh Montreal, I think a lot of people expect him to be at the bottom and they just had a lot of tangible growth right off the bat. And throughout the season, they got better and better.

Speaker 16 And I think they can be

Speaker 16 a team that staves off regression because they added Jobs and because they added Bolditch.

Speaker 16 And Columbus, as well as another great example from last year, where no one really saw it coming.

Speaker 16 But the one thing with Columbus that I think applies to a team like Anaheim is they got a new coach who knew what he was doing, and Dina Basin.

Speaker 16 They got a lot more out of players already on the roster.

Speaker 16 And I think that is something we can see with Anaheim where even just beyond the numbers, beyond who they added, beyond the the fact that there are a lot of young players who are expected to grow this season, they have a new coach in Joel Guenville, who is one of the best coaches in the world.

Speaker 16 And I think he can get a lot more out of this roster than

Speaker 16 I forgot who their previous coach was. I'm not going to lie.

Speaker 16 I don't like what he did with it. Like every year, like, oh, Anaheim's going to do something.
And they never did anything. And I will blame the coach whose name I forgot.

Speaker 16 And I do think they'll be better for that reason where I look at what my model has for this year and I look at what the betting market has.

Speaker 16 And it seems like the betting market believes that, where I might think the roster is 74-point capable, the betting market thinks it's 80 or 85.

Speaker 16 That's the coach bump that they believe Quenville can have. And I think it's hard to argue against that, where I would expect Anaheim is.

Speaker 16 definitely the team to make the biggest jump. Utah is another popular one as well, although as much as I like some of the ads they made, I think there's

Speaker 16 some question marks on their depth compared to what they had last year.

Speaker 26 I also wanted to ask you about a team that I think is going to be better this season, not that they needed to be that much better, but Carolina, a big move that they made this offseason was getting Nick Ehlersch from Winnipeg.

Speaker 26 I just think it's a great fit.

Speaker 26 I think you wrote something about also just how it just seems like he's going to be a good guy there, just, you know, a good two-way player with high-end offensive capabilities.

Speaker 26 Obviously, they lost something in the Ranton trade when they sent Nietzsche out west.

Speaker 26 But I feel like this isn't getting discussed a lot in just terms of, I think Carolina, even though they went to the conference final last year and, you know, second in the division, all that, I think that they're going to take a step forward this year.

Speaker 26 I think this is a big signing for them. And I just wanted to get your take on it.

Speaker 16 Yeah, Carolina is interesting because they're always near the top of the league, but they're also extremely young, which I think people underrate right now.

Speaker 16 They are not better than Florida, obviously. They keep losing to them in the conference finals in

Speaker 16 incredible fashion, but they are younger than Florida.

Speaker 16 And so there will probably be at some point an inflection where Carolina might surpass Florida because of how much youth they have, how they are doing contract efficiency stuff at the same scale where they have all these great long-term contracts and deals.

Speaker 16 And Elers, I think, gives them pretty much exactly what Netjust was, which is a chaotic, dynamic player with the puck who can bring it up the ice and not depend so much on for checking dummy chase.

Speaker 16 Give them a different look up front. And you combine that with the fact that they ended up with Stankovin as well.
I think they're a lot deeper now. They have a lot more four weapons.

Speaker 16 They have, I think, a big three up front, which is really important. If you look at all the contenders, they have three incredible forwards.

Speaker 16 And I think Elers slides in with Ajo and Jarvis in that way. Sveshikov, too, if he bounces back.

Speaker 16 The one question mark I have with them is: if they're 2C is Yes Barry Cote Kunyami, I am a bit worried about just how high they can climb, but they are very clearly the class of the Metro this year.

Speaker 29 Daily Faceoff has Seth Jarvis listed as their 2C.

Speaker 33 Just Barry Cote Kunyami as a 4C, which we kind of, I think we've all come to the conclusion that's kind of more of his spot.

Speaker 29 But I mean, Carolina, they still looked so far away.

Speaker 8 Like, the Panthers demolished them again in this series, and it's not like the Panthers got any worse.

Speaker 33 So I just, you know, is the model really high on carolina again because it's a team that you know numbers always kind of love

Speaker 25 uh

Speaker 16 so if you only use xg or coursi you're gonna love carolina a bit too much i do look at goals as well and i have carolina i think an appropriate spot which is seventh but they have a soft they have a softer division so they might jump up ahead of some of the atlantic teams just by virtue of the Atlantic being, I think, the deepest division in the league.

Speaker 16 Same with the Central's pretty tough as well.

Speaker 16 like Carolina a lot. I think they have a lot of room to grow.

Speaker 16 I don't know how fair it is that they're extremely far away when you compare them to Florida, because based on the playoffs we saw, everyone is far away.

Speaker 16 It seemed like Toronto at some points was close and then they got demolished. Tampa Bay at some points was close, then they got demolished.
Carolina at some points were close.

Speaker 16 Sorry, they got demolished and then at some points made it close. And then same with Edmonton, where at some points they were close.

Speaker 16 And then Florida, just I've never seen a more demoralizing playoff team where you think you have them and then suddenly they score three goals and you're like, We do not have them.

Speaker 16 It is, it was wild to watch. That line just oh,

Speaker 20 I love hearing that.

Speaker 43 A surprising thing that I saw in the article was the Philadelphia Flyers and just how much money they have towards the salary cap.

Speaker 13 What happened?

Speaker 16 I was absolutely stunned going through cap wages and Puckpedia, seeing them at the top of the salary cap list and then looking at their roster and wondering where,

Speaker 16 oh, where did all this money go? Apparently, a lot of it is spent on the League War schooltending for some reason.

Speaker 25 Dan Vladar.

Speaker 16 Yeah,

Speaker 16 you got like 3 million for Vladar, 3 million for Fedotov, 3 million for Erson. None of them are good.

Speaker 16 Makes perfect sense to me.

Speaker 16 I do like the Trevor Ziegris bet for them because they do need to take those high upside risks. But at the same time, Ziegris was not great in Anaheim.

Speaker 16 I think he has stumbled a lot in his development. So he's obviously someone that's pricey who could

Speaker 16 get to his cat pit in terms of value. It's just not something you can reasonably bet on now.

Speaker 16 I think the big thing is, obviously, Sean Gutturier, when he signed his deal, was absolutely worth it, one of the best two-way centers of the league, got injured, just isn't that guy anymore, unfortunately.

Speaker 32 And finally, yeah, you have to explain this to me.

Speaker 20 You've been pouring over the rosters for a long time now.

Speaker 50 Why exactly hasn't Bill Zito won the Jim Gregory Award?

Speaker 13 Great question.

Speaker 18 And will he win, based on your model for this upcoming season, will he win next season?

Speaker 16 I don't know how he doesn't. He hasn't won one yet.

Speaker 16 This

Speaker 16 last year seems the most egregious because he added Marshand and Seth Jones. And meanwhile, did Jim Nil win again? He added Kohar.

Speaker 28 Who else would have won? Yep.

Speaker 16 It's just

Speaker 16 unfathomable that he hasn't won because he is the gold standard. And

Speaker 16 I wonder if this is the year just because he was able to

Speaker 16 bring everyone back, basically. It's just Nate Schmidt gone, I think.

Speaker 16 Even if he doesn't do anything at the deadline, even if he doesn't have to maneuver in any way, like just bring this team back and if they go to the conference finals again, like I don't know how you don't give it to him.

Speaker 26 Yeah, the year he does the least will be the year he finally right exactly.

Speaker 25 Yeah.

Speaker 33 He lost out to Jim Neil who brought in Alex Petrovic and

Speaker 27 Cody Cece and well and Miko Randon.

Speaker 33 Have you seen their like their defensive I mean yeah the Randon move obviously big but I still don't think it's up to par with what Zito has done.

Speaker 26 He took from when he got here five years ago, when he took this franchise to where they are now, it's like mind-blowing. And he's, I mean, he's gotten credit in terms of the Stanley Cup.

Speaker 26 He's won it twice now, but credit from the outside, like, what are we doing, people? All right, I'm done.

Speaker 34 It almost feels like if he wins this year, it'll be like

Speaker 33 Leonardo DiCaprio winning for the revenant, like kind of like a career lifetime achievement award.

Speaker 26 There's better things. Right.

Speaker 26 He gets his trophy. Yeah.

Speaker 31 It's a good one, Ethan.

Speaker 21 You know, Bill Zito stands around.

Speaker 43 Don Luchisen, thank you for joining us. Thanks for having me, guys.

Speaker 21 All right, that was great with Dom, man.

Speaker 32 And yes, Bill Zito should have won the damn trophy.

Speaker 13 God damn it.

Speaker 20 Come on, let's.

Speaker 27 What are we doing here?

Speaker 8 Can we just make, like, I just want to clip off Dom saying the Panthers are the most demoralizing playoff team I think I've ever seen or whatever exactly he said and just like play that on a loop forever.

Speaker 8 Every time I get making aesthetic for doubting the Panthers and regression candidate Samson Reinhardt and all that you know stuff they say.

Speaker 39 The five hockey teams that they have played the most in the playoffs, the Lightning, the Maple Leafs, Leafs, the Bruins, the Hurricanes, and the Oilers.

Speaker 20 Oh, boy. Yeah.

Speaker 30 It's pretty amazing.

Speaker 8 I mean, just thinking back on it, don't you, like, you see the Cup days, you know, recently, Roy, and you think back on it, and it's just, it's unbelievable what they've done the last couple years.

Speaker 43 Yeah, the Cup is having a great time in Europe right now, man.

Speaker 20 That's for sure.

Speaker 39 And they don't seem to be done.

Speaker 26 Just getting started.

Speaker 14 They're probably just going to do it again next year, right?

Speaker 17 Like, I mean,

Speaker 24 certainly be more annoyed with us talking about the Panthers because apparently you guys don't think we talk about the rest of the league enough, even though we just did.

Speaker 26 No, the rest of the league needs to start winning some Stanley Cups, dude. I'm sorry.

Speaker 31 I love tamping.

Speaker 26 If this show, if we would have been doing the hockey show five years ago, we would have been talking about Tampa. We would have been talking about Colorado.
But we're doing the hockey show now.

Speaker 26 We talked about race.

Speaker 27 It is what it is.

Speaker 33 I'd say next week, just to piss everybody off, we should just do a segment on like the San like the no, not the Islanders.

Speaker 40 Let's do a segment on the

Speaker 30 Penguins.

Speaker 33 Who's the most like boring team we could possibly talk about?

Speaker 12 That just like

Speaker 20 the middle.

Speaker 14 Yeah, let's do a segment on the Seattle Kraken just for no reason next week.

Speaker 12 Okay, we talked to you all about hockey. Somebody else besides the Panthers.

Speaker 45 Rosie, any closing thoughts?

Speaker 41 Yes, let me close this with an amazing video, boys. Hit.

Speaker 21 Oh, Jesus.

Speaker 45 The Sharky, Sharky, the San Jose Sharks mask guy, got kicked in the face.

Speaker 40 Is that Celebrini?

Speaker 13 By a soccer ball.

Speaker 25 And it does look like Celebrity.

Speaker 14 No, that's Celebrini. I think that might be Will Smith.

Speaker 50 Will Smith and Mackie Celebrini.

Speaker 20 He even said it's

Speaker 41 murder. So we're

Speaker 20 murder.

Speaker 29 We're very close to it.

Speaker 20 It's murder.

Speaker 25 We call it murder.

Speaker 30 I think we're seven weeks away this coming Tuesday from opening night.

Speaker 39 Macklin Celebrity.

Speaker 50 I said Mackie because Samus Cavidge had the cup recently.

Speaker 35 He took it to New Town. That was beautiful.
He brought it to the Sandy Hook News.

Speaker 29 Yeah.

Speaker 22 That was great.

Speaker 31 That was a good thing.

Speaker 26 That's how Panthers-centric we are on this show is that none of us taught that.

Speaker 20 Yeah.

Speaker 16 None None of us taught that. Yeah.

Speaker 13 Mackey.

Speaker 20 I didn't want to.

Speaker 37 I mean, I knew it was wrong. Like, hey, wait a minute, it's not Mackie, it's Macklin.

Speaker 13 Oh, shit. Let me correct myself because I miss Panthers hockey.

Speaker 40 I miss hockey.

Speaker 28 Seven weeks, Roy. I'll be there.
I bought my tickets last week.

Speaker 44 Yeah, I'll be in the press box with Dave.

Speaker 20 Beautiful. Yeah.

Speaker 23 All right. So that's the show.

Speaker 43 We thank you for joining us, Rosie.

Speaker 44 Thank you for doing whatever it is that you do. I don't know.

Speaker 21 I know why you're in here.

Speaker 45 Because Dave's not here.

Speaker 20 Dave come back to me.

Speaker 33 It's probably a bad idea to let me in here.

Speaker 41 Okay, just because we have to close and we don't have time but whatever it is what i do you should know by now what i do i know i was being i was being facetious there uh rose bye everybody all right uh for our geno and uh whoever else is in the video studio

Speaker 19 jason jason's over there he's directing the things that we are doing ethan don't come in here anymore david come back never come in rose thank you my name is roy bellamy thank you for watching and listening to the hockey show we will see you next week and uh we'll talk to you as well because we're also on the audio podcast aren't we

Speaker 26 Smooth, Roy. Very smooth.

Speaker 20 Very smooth, Roy.

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