Consumer sentiment hits three-year low
Consumer sentiment — as in, how everyday people feel about the economy — fell to a low not seen since 2022, according to the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers. The decline was consistent across demographics, except among the wealthiest Americans (as measured by volume of stock market holdings). In other words, economic mood just became another k-shaped indicator. Also in this episode: Colleges shutter satellite campuses to cut costs and small and midsize businesses shrink their headcounts.
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Speaker 1 This podcast is supported by Odoo. Some say Odoo business management software is like fertilizer for businesses because the simple, efficient software promotes growth.
Speaker 1 Others say Odoo is like a magic beanstalk because it scales with you and is magically affordable.
Speaker 2 And some describe Odoo's programs for manufacturing, accounting, and more as building blocks for creating a custom software suite. So Odoo is fertilizer, magic beanstock building blocks for business.
Speaker 1
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Speaker 3 With apologies to Peter Drucker for the paraphrase, can you manage the labor market if you don't measure it?
Speaker 3 From American Public Media, this is Marketplace.
Speaker 3
I'm Kyle Risdahl. It is Friday, today, the 7th of November.
Good as always to have you along, everybody. It should have been Jobs Day today, as you know.
It wasn't, as you also know.
Speaker 3 What nobody knows, up to and including one Jerome Powell, is where we go from here in deciphering where the economy might be going. That's where we're going to start.
Speaker 3
We're going to do it with Heather Long. She's a chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union.
Encounter Breddy, he's the Washington Bureau Chief at MSNBC. Hey, you two.
Speaker 3 Hi, okay. Heather Long, you get to start today, and here's what I want to know.
Speaker 3 It's sort of a, it's a, it's a zeitgeistie sort of, you know, Schadenfreude sort of, I don't even know what kind of question.
Speaker 3 We're not getting all this data. What are we, what are we losing? What don't we have? Because we don't have this data.
Speaker 8 Oh, you just want to start with the depressing stuff. Okay.
Speaker 8 So
Speaker 8 look,
Speaker 8 look, nothing can replace government data. We've got a lot of good alternative indicators, but yeah, let's just think big picture.
Speaker 8 163 million workers in this economy, 170 million people in the labor force from the top of Alaska down to what is the most southernmost point of the United States. Key West.
Speaker 3 Hello, Key West. Come on.
Speaker 8 All right.
Speaker 8 So you get the point. No one, no private sector data has that kind of visibility into this great nation.
Speaker 8 I will say when I look and step back and look at all the data we did get this week, I think the Chicago Fed new metric probably does it best.
Speaker 8 You know, they said, Saul said unemployment rate ticked up just barely to 4.4% from 4.3% the last time we did get a jobs report. You know, they said hiring was down a little bit.
Speaker 8 So basically what I'm seeing is something that continues to deteriorate slowly.
Speaker 3 Oh, just give me another like 30 seconds on that slowly thing because that was a weird place to end.
Speaker 8 All right.
Speaker 8 Yeah, I mean, look, it's been frozen, no hiring all year, basically, outside of healthcare.
Speaker 8 But
Speaker 8
you don't see a huge spike in layoffs. You don't see a huge spike in new unemployment claims.
You see, again,
Speaker 8 a little bit more weakness in some sectors,
Speaker 8 but nothing that looks like we're falling off a cliff. All right.
Speaker 3 Okay.
Speaker 3
I think it might be Hawaii, actually, if you go outside the continental United States, but that's a whole different thing. Sadiq, I want to go to the Supreme Court.
We're going to bounce around a lot.
Speaker 3 We're going to do some geographical bouncing around, and we're going to do some subject matter bouncing around.
Speaker 3 Supreme Court this week, the AIPA tariffs, the justices were some of them anyway, the majority perhaps skeptical of the Trump administration's attempt to claim that these are not revenue-raising tariffs.
Speaker 3 No matter what the court decides, this is still a tense moment for small businesses, right? Because tariffs are still there.
Speaker 9 They are there. And if small businesses think of tariffs as taxes, which is how historically they've been thought of since the founding of the country, then
Speaker 9 that will weigh on them for the near term. Even if the Supreme Court comes out and decides that the president can't use tariffs in this way with this particular law.
Speaker 9 We already have gotten signs from the White House that they're still going to find other laws to use to deploy tariffs.
Speaker 9 And small businesses are not going to feel total relief from any individual Supreme Court decision because this particular president believes that tariffs are a great tool for
Speaker 9
doing not just economic policy, but foreign policy. And he will continue to do that.
And so
Speaker 9 there's going to be some tenseness for the years ahead about what does international trade even look like with this kind of approach. Yeah, sure will.
Speaker 3 And then if it gets overturned, of course, it'll be a mess refund-wise.
Speaker 3 Heather, let's go to the Federal Reserve. Told you we were going to bounce around.
Speaker 3 It was interesting to me that in the Fed speakers who were out this week, you know, they give various speeches and stuff,
Speaker 3 there's a distinct split now in the Federal Reserve. It's not like that news, but that's news, but it does seem to be becoming more pronounced.
Speaker 3 I will point out, actually, that the Bank of England this week was five to four to keep its key interest rates steady, which is quite the split. Help me understand why and if that matters.
Speaker 8 Well, I think there's two things going on. Number one is the beauty contest, the nerdiest beauty contest ever for who's going to be the next Fed chair.
Speaker 8 And this White House has a very different view of where it wants lower interest rates and a smaller balance sheet. So you've got a little bit of that at play.
Speaker 8 But the bigger thing going on here, the more important thing is let's call it a two-story economy. You know, this well, on the one hand, we got the AI boom, consumption at the top looks great.
Speaker 8 We got some strong growth, we've got the inflation ticking up. All of that says you shouldn't cut interest rates.
Speaker 8 On the other hand, we've got what we were talking about earlier: a labor market that's frozen and may even be cracking a little bit. And that suggests we should be cutting interest rates.
Speaker 8 And so, I don't think it's really that surprising, setting politics aside for a minute, that the Fed is split. And
Speaker 8 it's, I think, this is just a a preview of 2026.
Speaker 8 This isn't going away.
Speaker 3 Sadiq, on that issue of the economy being split, right? We're going to talk about this later in the program, this idea that it is K-shaped.
Speaker 3 How can an economy that depends so heavily on consumers, when a big chunk of consumers in this economy are at the bottom leg of that K, how can it keep going? How can it be resilient?
Speaker 9
This is the fraying that we have been seeing and will continue to see. If people who are most likely to spend are restrained, then they're going to be in some trouble.
And the overall economy
Speaker 9 will
Speaker 9 hobble along
Speaker 9 until something breaks. As we have long known, things usually break as a result of a shock rather than the expansion and dying of old age.
Speaker 9 And so we will have to see whether the shocks are small or the shocks are large enough to displace where we are. That's the real test and that's the real risk when
Speaker 9 people who are struggling the most just don't have additional money. Then when the shock comes, we'll really feel it economy-wide.
Speaker 3 Heather, let's talk about those shocks. My guess or my entry into this category would be the shocks were the tariffs, right? What else looms, do you suppose?
Speaker 8
Well, it feels like a lot is looming at the moment. I think the big question is what we were talking about.
Does the Fed make a mistake?
Speaker 8 Does the Fed make a mistake on interest rates by going too low and letting inflation soar or by going too high?
Speaker 8 And then the other risk that probably isn't getting enough air, although thank you for covering it,
Speaker 8 is there a risk in the plumbing system of the economy?
Speaker 8 If the new Fed chair really wants to take the balance sheet down, do we see more of those October 31st spooky moments? And
Speaker 8 that would not be pleasant pleasant for anyone.
Speaker 3 Heather Long, Chief Economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, City Bready at MSNBC. Thanks, you two.
Speaker 3 Thanks, guys.
Speaker 3 On a Friday, the markets today, bumpy, ended a bumpy week. Details, numbers, when we get there.
Speaker 3 Government data and the lack thereof, we have talked about ad infinitum. Private data and how we are depending on it, same.
Speaker 3 So, we're going to break out of that data paradigm and do a little job market surveying of our own, the small business job market in particular.
Speaker 3 Marketplace of Mitchell Hartman was the lucky winner in our assignment meeting this morning.
Speaker 7 Chris Kessler at Black Flannel Brewing near Burlington, Vermont is in high spirits. His distillery is growing sales by double digits, and his brew pub is doing really well.
Speaker 11 We're at about 8% growth right now over last year.
Speaker 7 So he's staffing up, adding to his current workforce of about 40%.
Speaker 12 We're currently hiring a sous chest in the kitchen.
Speaker 7 By early next year, he's hoping to hire hire another half dozen employees. And he doesn't think it'll be particularly easy with Vermont's unemployment rate so low.
Speaker 7 Across the country to another brew pub, Well80 in Olympia, Washington, where owner Chris Knutson says business isn't bad, but it isn't great either.
Speaker 12 We've certainly scaled back on staffing over the last year and a half, two years.
Speaker 12 Volume is down and labor obviously is going up.
Speaker 7 Washington has one of the highest minimum wages in the country, $16.66 an hour. From beer to gear, Maryland-based Bay Dog sells canine adventure equipment.
Speaker 7 Owner Barton O'Brien has six employees on staff.
Speaker 13 Right now, we are looking for an additional salesperson. And the thing that I found so alarming is that we're getting a lot of applications from candidates who are way overqualified.
Speaker 7 His business is growing, but he's worried about the cost of tariffs on his imported products going forward and the health of the U.S. consumer.
Speaker 13 The problem my business has is nobody needs a $70 dog life jacket.
Speaker 11 We are 100% dependent on consumers' discretionary income.
Speaker 7 The burden of tariffs has forced business owner Sarah Wells in Fairfax, Virginia to downsize to just four employees.
Speaker 7 Her company, Sarah Wells Bags, sells backpacks and shoulder bags for carrying breastfeeding gear.
Speaker 14 We at our peak were about double the size that we are now. The devastating effects of the tariffs this year means that I cannot pay everyone that we need to operate this business.
Speaker 7 She says at the same time as the cost of her imported products has gone up, new parents worried about their finances and job security are cutting back on their spending.
Speaker 7 I'm Mitchell Hartman for Marketplace.
Speaker 3 There are small businesses out there making their hiring plans, or not, as the holiday season approaches.
Speaker 3 But there are some small businesses that don't have any paid employees besides the owner of the business, non-employer firms they're called and they make up something like 80 of the small businesses in this economy here's one of them for today's installment of our series my economy my name is ariel bonkoski i own ariel's mushroom company teaching about wild mushrooms and i am in duluth minnesota Obviously, I focus on wild mushrooms, so things you find out in the woods.
Speaker 15 But I teach how to identify and how to safely forage. And I do that in a few different ways.
Speaker 15 I do like classroom classes, I do guided hikes, I even do like land surveys and tell people what's growing on their property.
Speaker 15 I work with universities, you know, public schools, nature centers, and then like different mycological societies as well.
Speaker 15 However we price things, I try to make sure that I am walking away with approximately $100 an hour as the goal.
Speaker 15 Shortly after, you you know, 2020 with COVID and all that, there was this big boom of people exploring the outdoors. And the mushroom community saw a huge increase in interest.
Speaker 15 So I think when I first started my business, we were still kind of in that height.
Speaker 15 You know, I am seeing it slow down a little bit, and financial times are a little uncertain for a lot of people these days.
Speaker 15 And there are, I'm sure, things I'm going to have to change in the future for my business to meet the community where they're at as well.
Speaker 15 When I started foraging mushrooms, that was kind of an interest for me is, hey, how can I cut food costs? You know, I think that's a question that's on a lot of people's minds.
Speaker 15 And, you know, learning to forage is one great way to cut food costs. So I think there's always going to be an interest in what I'm doing and what I'm teaching.
Speaker 15 I was able to do just my business for like a year and a half without having to do anything else on the side. And I decided I did like to travel a lot, so I did need to make a little bit more money.
Speaker 15 So I am doing other jobs on the side now. All of my travel is mushroom related.
Speaker 15 I am someone who enjoys tattoos. And what I'm trying to do is visit each of the 50 states and mushroom hunt and get a mushroom that I find in each state tattooed on my leg.
Speaker 15 I think like 10 years back, if I would imagine myself in this position, and the answer would absolutely be no. Like, I don't think I really had a direction at that point.
Speaker 15 I was doing like bartending, and you know, it's obviously not what I was like passionate about.
Speaker 15 So, then finding that passion and then becoming, you know, secure enough in that passion that I can start teaching other people about my passion and getting other people passionate is really exciting and it's really fun.
Speaker 3 Ariel Bonkowski, owner of Ariel's Mushroom Company in Duluth, Duluth, Minnesota. Do let us know what's going on with you, would you?
Speaker 3 Marketplace.org/slash myeconomy is where you do that.
Speaker 16 Coming up. We fundamentally have too many seats and too many classrooms and not enough students.
Speaker 3 Supply and demand in higher ed. But first, let's do the numbers.
Speaker 3
Dow Industrial is up 74 points today, just shy at 2 tenths percent, 46,987. The NASDAQ gave up 49 points, 2 tenths percent, 23,004.
The SP 500 found 8 points in the couch cushions.
Speaker 3
That's about a 10th percentile, 6728. For the five days gone by, the Dow down 1.2 percent.
The NASDAQ subtracted 3%. The SP 500 weakened 1.6%.
Speaker 3 Wall Street, Street, not too impressed with that trillion-dollar pay package Tesla shareholders approved for Elon Musk yesterday by a vote of 75%.
Speaker 3 Shares down 3.2 thirds of 1%.
Speaker 3
Market was also cooled to the weight loss drug discount deals that Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk cut with the Trump administration. Lilly shed 1.4%.
Novo Nordisk gave up 5.10%.
Speaker 3
Collateral damage, perhaps. Telehealth firm Hims and Hers dropped 1% and 210%, rather.
Monster Beverage raised prices on its energy drinks over the past years. Does not seem to have dented demand.
Speaker 3
Sales are up. Monster perked up just shy 5.2 tenths percent.
Today, bonds down, yield on the 10-year treasury 4.090%.
Speaker 3 You're listening to Marketplace.
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Speaker 1 This podcast is supported by Odoo. Some say Odoo business management software is like fertilizer for businesses because the simple, efficient software promotes growth.
Speaker 1 Others say Odo is like a magic beanstalk because it scales with you and is magically affordable.
Speaker 2 And some describe Odo's programs for manufacturing, accounting, and more as building blocks for creating a custom software suite. So Odoo is fertilizer, magic beanstock building blocks for business.
Speaker 1
Odoo, exactly what businesses need. Sign up at Odo.com.
That's ODOO.com.
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Speaker 3 This is Marketplace. I'm Kai Rizdahl.
Speaker 3 Heather and Sudeep and I touched on it real quick, but it's worth another look here because just like about everything else, consumer sentiment is kind of K-shaped.
Speaker 3 Data out this morning from the University of Michigan's regular survey, hello, private private data, shows that we are as cranky now as we have been in more than three years, our collective mood dragged down by sharp drops in how people see their personal finances and what they think of business conditions in the short term.
Speaker 3 That was true pretty much whatever the respondent's age, income, or political affiliation, unless whoever was answering the question was in the top one-third of owners of stock.
Speaker 3 Their sentiment improved by significantly more than everybody else's decline. Marketplace's Carla Javier reports.
Speaker 10 It makes sense that people with more wealth would feel better about the economy.
Speaker 10 But according to Joanne Hsu, director of the University of Michigan's Survey of Consumers, after the president announced his tariffs in early April, wealthy consumers weren't feeling great either, and sentiment actually converged.
Speaker 19 Since then,
Speaker 19 the folks who are higher wealth, they are no longer quite so worried about the worst case scenario that consumers were broadly expecting back in April and May, May, and they've been really supported by these strong stock market performances.
Speaker 10
On the other hand, she says people with fewer stocks, their sentiment is continuing to deteriorate. So yeah, K-shaped once again.
Xu says these more pessimistic consumers are feeling squeezed.
Speaker 19 They're much more concerned about day-to-day pocketbook issues like high prices and weakening incomes.
Speaker 10 This survey took place during the government shutdown, and that could also be having a big impact on how consumers feel, says says John Lear of Morning Consult, which also tracks sentiment.
Speaker 20 So it's not surprising to me that consumers are souring on the economy. What we know very clearly is that consumers do not like policy uncertainty.
Speaker 10 Lear says he thinks that if the shutdown were to end, sentiment could rebound.
Speaker 21 I'm fairly optimistic that the underlying health of the consumer is not deteriorating quite as rapidly as the consumer sentiment data suggests it might be.
Speaker 10 Consumer sentiment is important because how consumers feel can affect how households spend, and that can affect businesses and whether they cut back on hiring, says Sasha Indarte at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School.
Speaker 23 That decline in income means more cutbacks in spending, people get more pessimistic, and you can get this vicious cycle emerging.
Speaker 10 Those sour sentiments don't necessarily mean a recession is inevitable. Indarte says sentiment is like a temperature check of the economy.
Speaker 10 It doesn't predict what will definitely happen, but does point to some some risk. I'm Carla Javier for Marketplace.
Speaker 3
A couple of stipulations on the way to this next story. First of all, demographics really are destiny.
That's part labor market and it's part consumer base.
Speaker 3
Item two, higher education, like it or not, is a business. And those two realities are coming to a head.
The birth rate in the United States has been falling for almost 20 years.
Speaker 3 And at the same time, online college degree programs are on the rise, young people are looking at jobs that don't need a degree in the first place, and the Trump administration's immigration policies are driving away international students.
Speaker 3 That is translating into ever-increasing financial pressure on schools, some of which are already squeezed. So one way they're coping? Shrinking their physical footprint.
Speaker 3 Marketplace's Henriette reports.
Speaker 24 For the last 50 years, Troy University in Troy, Alabama has had a satellite campus 85 miles away in Phoenix City.
Speaker 25 At one time, I think that campus had 2,000 or 3,000 students. It was a very robust operation, and the target audience was the non-traditional student.
Speaker 24 Kerry Palmer is Troy University's senior vice chancellor and provost. In its mid-90s heyday, Palmer says, the Phoenix City campus was a night school where adult students took evening classes.
Speaker 25 It was convenient in those days to go to class at night when you weren't at work, and now it's convenient to sit in your pajamas at home on your own time and
Speaker 25 get your studies online.
Speaker 24 Online programs, including some from Troy University itself, started eating into Phoenix City's in-person enrollment in the early 2000s, Palmer says.
Speaker 24 In the last decade, its student population declined drastically.
Speaker 25 We were spending a tremendous amount of money for building up KEEP and just keeping the doors open, staffing, faculty, and administration, and we just weren't getting the type of traffic that would justify that expenditure.
Speaker 24 So earlier this year, Troy's board voted to close the Phoenix City campus at the end of the year. Several other colleges and universities will be closing satellite campuses too.
Speaker 24 Penn State is shuttering seven of its 20 smaller campuses.
Speaker 24 Middlebury College in Vermont will wind down its graduate programs in Monterey, California, and Champlain College, also in Vermont, will close study abroad campuses in Montreal and Dublin.
Speaker 24 While each of these satellites is a bit different, their closures are all happening against the same backdrop.
Speaker 16 We fundamentally have too many seats and too many classrooms and not enough students.
Speaker 24 Peter Stokes is a managing director at Huron, a consulting group that specializes in higher ed. For years, college expansions made sense, he says, because the student population was booming.
Speaker 24 It grew about tenfold from 1950 to 2010, peaking at 21 million.
Speaker 16 While we went through this period of expansion and growth, we saw institutions create satellite campuses, create extension programs, many of these in rural locations.
Speaker 24 But the number of higher ed students has fallen by over 2 million in the last 15 years. Waning interest has hurt Middlebury College's satellite in Monterey, California.
Speaker 24 The graduate school's programs largely focus on international relations and translation, says Jeff Dayton Johnson, the dean. Many alumni have gone on to work in the State Department.
Speaker 22 There certainly is, I think, a forecast on the part of many potential students that these are jobs which won't be as plentiful in the future.
Speaker 24 Enrollment was already declining before Trump's second term, he says, and cuts at the State Department haven't helped.
Speaker 22 The sad irony of this move is that the world, I would argue, has never needed our graduates more.
Speaker 22 People who promote intercultural communication, people who promote peace, understanding, a more just world.
Speaker 24 The closure could deal a blow to downtown Monterey. The program occupies 19 buildings there, though city manager Hans Uslar is optimistic about the property's future.
Speaker 26
It's a short jump to the beach. It's a short jump to go onto a recreational trail and go on long bike rides.
So it is an attractive, attractive property that the right developers can pick up.
Speaker 24 Meanwhile, in eastern Alabama, Provost Kerry Palmer says Troy University has a potential buyer lined up for its Phoenix City campus.
Speaker 24 And while it shuts down that satellite location, it's investing in its two others.
Speaker 25 For us, anyway, our experience, the satellite campus is going to need some means by which you draw foot traffic in.
Speaker 24
So its newest newest satellite program will be literally hands-on. A doctorate degree for chiropractors at its campus in Dauphin, Alabama.
And Henry app for Marketplace.
Speaker 3
This final note on the way out today, which I really do wish I'd thought of myself, but I'm glad the CNN digital team did. Elon Musk has that new pay package.
Trillion dollars, you might have heard.
Speaker 3
So here then is some of what Musk could buy with that money. Toyota, Volkswagen, Stellantis, Hyundai, Ford, and General Motors.
Like the companies, all of them.
Speaker 3
Or every car sold in the United States this year. Or ExxonMobil, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips, the companies, all of them.
Or he could pay down 138th of the $38 trillion federal debt.
Speaker 3
Lots of other things too. If he put his mind to it, I suppose.
Our theme music was composed by B.J. Lederman.
Speaker 3 Marketplace's executive producer is nancy fargali joanne griffith is the chief content officer neil scarbrough is the vice president and general manager and i'm kyrisdahl we will see you back here on monday gang have yourselves a great weekend all right
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