Overtime - Episode #378 (Originally aired 2/26/16)

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Welcome to an HBO podcast from the HBO Late Night Series, Real Time with Bill Maher.

Hey, we are back, and Michael Hayden, does the effectiveness of drones outweigh the moral concerns about them?

Good question.

I meant to get that.

It's a great question.

And there's always a trade-off.

And even if the first-order effect is what you want and you achieve it, you always create second, third, and fourth-order effects that you're going to have to pay a tariff on sooner or later.

So you don't do it lightly.

The line I use with regard to to drones in our current circumstances,

we don't need a switch.

We need a dial.

Meaning?

Meaning that there's still times when such an activity is necessary, when we've got an adversary wants to come in over the perimeter wire and kill you, me, our families.

When you have a host government unwilling and or unable to act, you need to keep this tool available.

But again, it can't always be the default option because you have to live then with second and third order factors.

I've read your article about it.

You said it's greatly exaggerated how many civilians.

It is.

But the article also says it's necessary, precise, and imperfect.

And so you always have to live with the...

But again, the alternative, you know, if you look at us in Iraq 10 years ago, kicking down doors, actual soldiers on the ground getting killed and killing a lot of other Iraqis, I don't know if that's better, but I also think drones probably do create a lot of terrorists.

No, as I said, trade-offs.

Let me give you a thought.

You know, it's kind of viewed as antiseptic.

It's a video game.

it's not really warfare,

from our side.

The people who operate them in tremendous emotional strain because they actually become intimately familiar with the target, with the pread, the reaper, over a target, hours, if not days.

You see the family, you see the interaction, you see this as a human being.

And if that's still the target, you know, he kisses the kids, he kisses the wife, he gets in the SUV, and he gets 400 yards away from the compound where you can now take your first shot, consistent with the laws of armed conflict.

And you do, even though you've established this great emotional bond.

So it's not a free ride for the people tactically.

It is, however, very alluring at the political level

because it allows you to do and be seen as doing something without embracing the political risk of putting Americans in harm's way.

Friend Laboratories, what explains your antipathy toward the Clintons?

Yeah, you don't like the Clintons.

No.

Am I alone in this?

No.

No.

No.

I mean, I think everybody else has

mixed feelings.

Mine aren't that mixed, but...

Right.

Well, you know, I believe that you can only really judge your contemporaries.

You know, people younger and older than you, you were kind of guessing, but with your contemporaries, you can really read them.

And Bill Clinton was the first

person to my generation.

He's older, but still my generation,

to be the president, to run for the president.

And the second I saw him, I thought, I know this guy.

I went to high school with him.

You know, I didn't like him then.

I don't like him now.

So I think my antipathy is that I understand him.

You know,

I don't like him.

To me, he seemed like a Republican.

You know, I didn't like his policies.

When he signed that welfare bill, I went insane.

You know, I mean, he was way to the right of me.

A lot of his success was about moving the Democratic Party to the right.

He was a successful, moderate Republican president.

Right.

But I'm a Liberal Democrat, so that is why I didn't like him.

Hillary Clinton, the same, really.

Chelsea Clinton is just a throw-in to the mix.

It's not her fault, but.

Right.

But she's not helping.

Yes, you're not helping the situation.

But I'm voting for Hillary Clinton, and I want her to be the president.

Because it doesn't matter if you like them.

You're not going to have dinner with them.

Michael Eric Dyson, how would you grade Obama as a, quote, black president?

Not even sure.

As opposed to the

other Obama, you know, the Jewish.

The other, the

OEV.

Look, I think he's going to to go down as one of the most incredibly successful and consequential presidents in the history of this nation.

But

what he has done on race will not win him those plaudits.

He is the Shaquille O'Neill of presidents.

He's got four rings.

He's an incredibly great president, but he couldn't shoot free throws.

It does no good for us to pretend that Shaquille O'Neill could shoot free throws.

And in fact, because of that vulnerability, they came up with a hackershack.

And they exploited him at the end of the game.

Obama's weakness, his hackershack, is race because he was hesitant, he procrastinated, and he was loath to address an issue that ultimately forced him into his bully pulpit with extraordinary eloquence.

And the last time I was on the show, when he spoke that eulogy at that church, he was at his best when he was at his blackest, and therefore he showed America something more powerful.

So, as a president in general, an A.

As a president who dealt with issues that are germane to African-American people, about a C.

But you choose as your analogy the the NBA, the most black-dominated sport.

Racist, sir!

Jack Hughes!

Let's start fighting racism there,

where it is most prevalent.

Mark Buffalo,

did your lobbying of British Prime Minister David Cameron have an effect on his fracking agenda?

That remains to be seen.

You know you lobbied him.

I did.

I made a video imploring him to think about the health consequences.

And he answered you.

No,

but

that was before you're an A-list.

Four million people.

You're an A-list turnout.

Now you'll get the list.

Yeah, now after tonight.

I'm waiting.

Four million people saw that.

It was probably one of the most popular posts that I've ever made.

That is a lot.

And I mean, what he's doing there is he's basically, he told the people, if you don't want fracking, we won't bring it here.

And recently he just turned that around.

The people said, We don't want fracking, and then he said, Well, we're going to force you to take it.

And it just

same shit everywhere.

Nobody wants fracking.

Lots of people.

I mean, other than the people in the business.

Like, are there other people that are not in the business?

I don't know.

Someone's like, come in,

frack my backyard.

Right.

Well, they come in, they offer you money for your farm.

And then they turn the water on, and a person into flames, they see that.

I've seen it.

I know.

They think that's a good trade-off.

I know.

But people don't think ahead, you know, and some people are struggling.

And it's like somebody comes in and offers you money for your farm, and your farm is failing anyway.

And of course, you're going to be aware of that.

That's what it was.

Will Obama be able to finally close Guantanamo Bay?

Yes, that was news this week.

We should have mentioned it.

Didn't have time for that.

What do you think about that, Guantanamo Bay?

If it closes, I hope he's able to do it without creating a constitutional crisis.

By closing it in the face of congressional opposition, that we actually get to a political agreement.

I'm not concerned about keeping prisoners in the United States.

As you've talked earlier, we're really good at that.

We have done it very well.

We can keep people here.

I am concerned about the legal regime that would be created by what the President still agrees will be forever prisoners.

There are some who will be brought here who will not be tried and whom we will not release.

And then

the other factor is, back to your MBA metaphor,

don't operate on a shot clock here.

All right.

You need to be very careful about who you shove out the door.

The recidivism rate here is about 30 percent.

Truth in lending, Bush administration pushed more people out the door than this administration.

All right, so we both had a common people in the door.

Well, we did.

In fact, most of the people who were there never should have been there in the first place.

And we've kept people there who even our own government says we should release.

They're just rotting.

Why don't we give them a trial?

I still don't understand.

Like a mission.

It's a trial system working.

And trials work.

We have have never, ever had a

high-profile terrorist trial in a federal court where there wasn't a conviction.

They're pitching a perfect game.

You're like, that's terrorist bait.

I mean, it's literally a terrorist manual.

America doesn't try people.

They say they do, but they don't.

Right.

Why?

Why?

My turn?

Yes, yes.

You went for it.

Because this president and his predecessor in the American Congress have said we are at war with al-Qaeda.

that gives us a variety of legal regimes, not a lawful regime and an unlawful regime, but a variety of legal regimes with which to conduct the war.

One is, according to United States criminal law, another perfectly legal effort is to do it under the laws of armed conflict.

A president who is willing to kill people outside of internationally agreed theaters of conflict has already hugged dearly the concept that we are at war and therefore we do have a right as a belligerent to keep members of the opposing armed enemy force as prisoners.

But we don't have to.

No, and we could try them in the federal courthouse in New York.

You know why Boomer didn't want that trial there?

Bad for real estate values.

That is absolutely why Boomerang.

Yes, that is.

But there have been many trials there.

Yes, there have been many trials there.

And they're all successful.

Yes.

Okay.

But it reduces America's moral authority all around the world.

And you can see America trying to lecture countries on democracy and the importance of it.

And then this is what we do.

It's just sucks.

Optics suck.

Optics are not good.

Although, given the inclination toward mass incarceration, one of the embarrassing consequences, though unintended, could be that, hey, a terrorist got a fairer trial than some of our American citizens.

You know, there's a reason why ISIS executes people in those orange

like that.

Like, well, that color.

No, no, I'm not.

I'm just thinking.

Oh, my God.

I'm not bad.

Not like that.

No, I'm just saying.

It's

that exact colour.

But a better better cut.

This is a much better outfit.

Absolutely.

But

that color jumpsuit.

They put them in that outfit because they want to remind people of Gitmo.

Bill, can I just look forward?

We're looking backwards, and I understand the impact, right?

But looking forward, if you're unwilling to use all the tools available, look at the dilemma.

The book tries to emphasize nothing easy and there's always trade-offs, all right?

Looking forward,

we don't capture anyone

whom we don't have confidence.

This is looking forward, that we don't have confidence, we can bring into an Article III court and we have a chain of evidence and all those other things that are required for a very high standard of beyond reasonable doubt proof.

And when we don't have that tool, when we don't have that body of proof, when we don't think we can bring them in to a federal court, instead of capturing under the laws of armed conflict, we kill them.

Right.

But Cantanamo was filled with people that they just grabbed.

I mean, we hear the story over and over again that they were

right.

They were just part of a feud in Afghanistan.

Wrong dude, sorry.

18 years, sorry.

Sorry.

It's just

wrong guy, sorry.

Yeah, we just need to close Gonquanamo Bay.

And stop.

It's just a political issue for politicians to be able to say, I won't allow them on American soil.

I keep saying these guys have seen Con Air too many times.

They think these are master criminals instead of just sad old men.

Okay, Joanna Coles, do you see gun control as a woman's issue?

You see gun control as a woman's issue.

Well, the boyfriend loophole is very worrying, where, you know,

there is a sort of boyfriend loophole.

So actually, single women are not as well protected as married women and women with children.

And that's to do with

when,

if a man has been violent in a relationship

and

he's no longer living with the woman and you're dating him, he can still buy a gun.

If he's been violent in a relationship and he's still with the woman, he's not allowed to buy a gun with background checks.

So actually single women are more vulnerable.

And it's incredibly important actually for single women to A, know that they're more likely to be murdered by a guy with a gun than if you're married to him.

And secondly, that

you should have a conversation with someone if you're dating them about do you have a gun, where do you keep it, where's the ammunition?

And don't have it when you're voting

you know have it when you're so liberals hate anything that that you know sort of gives ammunition

to the uh to the pro-gun people but the truth is that uh men are generally stronger than women and you know a gun is an equalizer

well only if the woman's holding the gun

yeah yeah but a woman can hold a gun it's not too heavy for her to pick up

well except that if you live in a household with a gun one of you is more likely likely to die from gun death or from violent death than if you don't have one.

So you're better off.

The truth is, you're better off not having a gun.

You're better off not having a gun.

You know, if he's in the bushes and I was a woman, I'd like to have a gun.

I would.

Because if he gets in the house, then I don't have any recourse.

Well, statistics show that you're much less likely to be harmed by a gun if there are no guns around.

Yeah.

I think

that's a lot of idiots who don't know what they're doing with a gun.

You know?

Does Chris Christie backing Trump lend him any credibility with the Republican establishment?

Which one, Trump or Christie?

It's a good question.

I think Chris Christie is trying to get a job.

I think he's always trying to get a job.

I think he thinks he's going to win, and he thinks, finally, I'm going to be a pit boss in Atlantic City, which is the job he wants to have.

No, I don't think he thinks he's going to be the vice president because that would be a little too much of one sort of testosterone-fueled East Coast

kind of alpha male.

But Attorney General, I think he would love that job.

And I think if he helps Trump, Trump, Trump, I mean, I'll be thrilled if Trump is president and he doesn't appoint Paula Dean and Joe the Plumber.

Or Judge Peabody, Judge Peaudy for Supreme Court.

Right.

Has the success of Donald Trump diminished the power of money in in politics?

Well, that's a good question, too, because we saw Jeb Bush drop out, and he certainly had most of the money, and Donald Trump, yeah, he's...

But isn't Donald Trump getting money just on the sly?

I mean, it's not that he's not getting money.

He's just not getting it the traditional way.

But, you know, there's a lot more than his own cash at stake.

So I don't think he's an answer to the referendum on money.

But Jeb spent $98 million on advertising.

And if you're Donald Trump, you're a content machine, right?

You don't need to have any advertising because everybody's covering you.

You are the content.

And Jeb was simply wrapping his ads around the content of Trump.

Yeah, I agree.

I mean, money doesn't help you if you're not a good candidate.

And Jeb just didn't look like he wanted it enough.

Yeah.

I always say it's like a sports team.

You know,

over the course of many seasons, probably the richer teams do do better.

But lots of times, I mean, in the World Series last year, the Mets were not one of the richer teams, either were the Royals, and the Mets beat them.

All right, thank you very much.

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