The Six Defining Games of NFL Week 14; Deshaun Watson Cleared to Practice & Von Miller Speaks on Parsons

All right, my fellow football Americans, we haven't a moment to waste. It's NFL Week 14, Rivalry Week, plus on Saturday, Championship Games, Galore, and College Football.
Let's jump right into it.

Not in a minute, not after breakfast, now.

Yes, hi and hello, my fellow football Americans. Welcome to NFL Week 14, featuring big-time rivals and big-time games and in college football championship weekend.

Like I say, welcome to Football America. episode number 31.
We're presented as ever by DraftKings. DraftKings, the crown is yours.
And fellas, we have a lot to get to.

Von Miller, like we say, Sports Illustrated's Matt Verdurom, our old pal. But first, we have to honor the player who wore the episode number best.
Like I say, episode 31.

Welcome back, Gino Fuentes from your journey to Columbia, where I assume you enjoyed some nice turkey while you were there.

I've got, among NFL guys, Camp Chancellor, Donnie Schell, the Hall of Famer, Priest Holmes, Jamal Lewis. Am I forgetting anyone?

NFL-wise, no. Jamal Lewis would have been my first one out of the gate.
But how about Dave Winfield, MLB legend? 3,000 hits, 460-some home runs, drafted in three sports.

Yeah, that's right. Yeah, great piece of trivia there.
I think think so was the guy who tried to draft them, Bud Grant, up there in Minnesota long ago. Reggie Miller as well.

How about you, Mike Fuentes? Greg Maddox.

Greg Maddox, a very strong one from the hockey world, one of the great netminders we've ever seen, even though he had a higher goals allowed total.

That's because he played on a team that really shot it out most nights in Edmonton. Grant Fuhrer, also Mike Piazza.
There you have your 31s.

And before we get to Vaughan and Verderom, it's time now for this week's pick six, presented as ever by our pals at DraftKings. DraftKings, the crown is yours.
Let's give everybody a

holiday treat, shall we? Mike and Gino, Gino and Mike.

Six guys that I like to do it now. Touchdowns.
You do it how you want to. Here are my picks.
Derrick Henry is going to find the end zone at least once.

He has four touchdowns in his last three against that bum Steelers rush defense. This seems like a gimme.
Same goes for James Cook, who just cooked that same Steelers defense.

He'll get into the end zone against the Sari Bungles defense. So will his pal Josh Allen.
Now, two touchdown throws, Joe Burrow in what figures to be a shootout up there in Western New York.

Bake versus the Saints. It's been three games since my guy Bake threw multiple touchdowns.
He gets off the Schneider. And lastly, Jordan Love versus Chicago.

He has six touchdown throws in his last three games. He continues to roll against the archrival Bears.
Any changes you want to make? Have at it, fellas.

I'm going to take out Derrick Henry, and I'm going to throw in

Quinchon Judkins here.

Tennessee's awful. Tennessee's going into straight-up tank mode.
This game is in Cleveland anyway. Great call.

And once they get inside the 10-yard line, the Browns, I mean, they take the quarterback out. They just don't want any errors.
So they just put Quinchon in and have him rush it in.

Yeah, a lot of Wildcat for Jenkins. And the Browns are feeling good, too.

Deshaun's coming back. Everything's possible.
Mike, how say you? There's no way Deshaun Watson plays. That's a problem.
No, not this season. Yeah, I'm going to go.
But enthusiasm

must go

overflowing. Yeah, I'm going to go

with Jackson, Smith, and Jigba. JSN, he had a terrible game last game in Minnesota.
He's going to want to show out and continue his pace. So he's going to go over 90 and a half yards.

I know he should pick touchdowns here, but I feel really strong about the JSN pick. All right, let's talk about one of the real hot teams right now.

In fact, in contention for the number one seed with one of their greatest stars ever, Von Miller.

Hi and hello, my fellow football Americans. Late word.
I'm sure you already heard the news, but we've officially arrived at the holiday season, aka the best time of the year.

Family, food, football, best of all, Miller Light. It's time to go on vacation or to go to work parties or to go to parties with your pals or to not go to work at all.

It's all about spending time and this holiday season with good people and good beer. And that's where Miller Light comes in.
You know, it's Miller's 50th anniversary after all.

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Go to millerlight.com slash FBA to find delivery options near you.

Or you can pick up some Miller Light pretty much anywhere they sell beer. Tis Miller time.

See, I said that like it's holiday season. Tis, you say around Thanksgiving or Christmas.
So Tiss, please always remember to celebrate responsibly.

Miller Brewing Company, Milwaukee, Wisconsin, 96 calories and 3.2 carbs per 12 ounces. Hi and hello, my fellow football Americans.
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The crown is yours.

I once gave this guy a cello way back at the NFL Honors. I gave him another gift as well at another NFL Honors.
Either way, in a few years, he's going to be getting a gold jacket.

And in the meantime, he's got a new or new-ish podcast with Odyssey. It's called Free Range with Von Miller.
And his name just so happens to be Von Miller. What's happening, man? How are you?

Good to see you. Howdy, guys.
I'm doing good. I appreciate you guys for having me.
Sure thing.

And, you know, when you consider the name Von Miller in pro football terms, your brain immediately goes to the Lombardi that you won in 2015 with the Broncos.

But really, the two Lombardies that you won, nine sacks in the two postseasons that ended with you hoisting that trophy up.

Do you believe...

For a pass rusher or anyone really beyond quarterback, do you believe in the idea of clutch?

yeah i think uh

i think after you experience it uh a couple of times you start to believe it you start to drink the kool-aid like whenever you uh

you play in big-time games and big time moments and you have success consistently you just start to like believe it so yeah i like the i like the term you know playoff von you know it's it's looking tough for us right now but i like i like playoff on a lot speaking about that super bowl 50 team peyton Manning was a great name brand and remains one, but I think even he concedes that you, the defense,

no fly zone and all the rest of it, kind of carried him along the way there.

What do you think about people like me who kind of, I respect the analytics and all of that, but I think that they have all added up to take away the drama of the postseason, which is those small moments or those singular moments that define the entire career do you think that it's appropriate to weigh those moments most heavily when you evaluate whether or not a guy's a hall of famer it just it really just depends um you know it's some quarterbacks that I feel like are Hall of Fame quarterbacks that have never won a Super Bowl.

And, you know, usually you'll say like, you got to win a Super Bowl to be like one of those guys or have like one of those big moments in the postseason to be like a Hall of Fame all-time great.

But, you know, I played against plenty of quarterbacks, a lot of quarterbacks that I respect that I feel like should be Hall of Fame quarterbacks that never had those moments.

So it just, it really just depends.

Who, well, I put you on the spot, who would those guys be? I mean, I guess, well, I can answer for you a little bit. Lamar and Josh Allen come to mind.

I think they're both, I think they're both safely going to get gold jackets at this point, right? Yeah, I mean, those guys are going to have multiple opportunities to win Super Bowls.

And my bet is that both of those guys will have at least one Super Bowl by the time it's all said and done. I was thinking along like,

you know, Phillip Rivers.

Yeah, like, you know, a guy like Phillip Rivers that I respect a lot, respect his game. He's a Hall of Fame quarterback, in my view.
Never had that opportunity to like, get in the postseason.

He's been in the postseason, but Super Bowls and like to be able to hoist the Super Bowl trophies, never had the opportunity. But in my opinion, he is a Hall of Fame quarterback.

Man, Phil Rivers, that one year where LT was hurt up in Foxborough, they were the better team heading in there, but LT couldn't go and had to yank himself after the first drive.

But Phil Rivers standing out there all day on the bum knee and everything else, that's borderline Hall of Fame sort of behavior by itself.

Okay, so like we say, you have not one, but two Lombardis and a spoiler alert, you are going to get a gold jacket. I hope that doesn't diminish the drama when that day arrives for you.

But let's say, Von, you can only have one. Which would it be, the Lombardi or the gold jacket? I would rather have the Super Bowls, man.

Like, you know, to be able to, you know, share those small moments like with your teammates and be connected for life. Like,

there's nothing like it. Like now, I just, you know, get nostalgic and like reminisce on, you know, how dope it was to like

win a Super Bowl with with payton manning and matthew stafford and aaron donald and like i'll always be connected to those guys like for that one game that we played for the rest of life we we will always be connected through those wins and you know i'd be old and crispy and still you know be able to like point to my great-grandkids like hey i i won the super bowl like that one time so i would I would say like,

you know, a Super Bowl, Super Bowl win is

a little bit doper for me. I would like to have both, though.
So Super Bowl 50, you have the spectacular performance. You're the MVP of the game

and all of that.

From a fashion standpoint, now that we're on the subject of fashion, why 58, then 40, now 24? If you go to another team after this year, what can we expect? Like two or something like that?

No, I would like to stay, well, I think 58 is just done. 58 is

I only wore 58 because I couldn't wear 40.

And, you know, Derr Thomas wore 58.

And I loved his game, modeled my game after him.

I was a fan of Derrick Thomas. Like,

that was like my guy. And, you know, he wore 58.
I couldn't wear 40 with the Denver Broncos at the time. Now you can.
But I couldn't wear 40 at the time. So I wore 58.

and you know that was my 11 years in Denver like that's over with and done 58 is done Denver only

I was 40 my whole entire life high school college

tried to be 40 in Denver like I said it didn't happen so when I went to the to the Los Angeles Rams war number 40 when I went to the Buffalo Bills

war number 40 and you know I just kind of wanted to

I really like you know Kobe and, you know, Champ Bailey played here. I was going to ask you if it was a Champ thing, yeah.
Yeah, huge fan of Champ Bailey. Like, and I just like the way, like, the two

and four, like, looked in a Washington Commander's jersey. So, Kobe,

Champ,

here in Washington, like, it makes you look a little bit slimmer. And yeah, I will say that.

It's funny you say that because generally speaking, I found

that

guys who are great at sports, professional level, don't necessarily aren't as fascinated by watching other people play the sport that they've dominated.

And so it is striking that you do care about other sports.

And I remember when you were coming into the league that Derek Thomas clone, and this is the guy he looks up to, and all of that.

But really, you mentioned Kobe, who modeled his game after Michael Jordan, and really in so many ways in terms of style and the mid-career adjustment that he that they both made

and even in the way they comported themselves around microphones and everything. They really did.
You are,

I hope this comes off as a compliment. You are

really as much like Derrick Thomas as anyone I've ever seen play pro football. I mean, physically, if you had the same uniform and number on, it would be hard to distinguish one from the other.

That's cool, man.

Yeah, like

I watched all his videos on YouTube, like over and over and over,

watched his game film, watched his interviews. Like

I've seen so much of Derr Thomas. Just

anything that Derr Thomas was involved in that you could search and look up, I've seen it.

I count

eight guys from 2011

getting a gold jacket ultimately.

Do you care about that draft class? Do you like to brag to other guys about I was a part of what maybe goes down as the greatest of all time?

Yeah, I like to, you know, I like to hold it up in there and brag about it.

That

draft class was amazing, you know, from start to finish. And even in like the second round, in the third and fourth round, like that whole entire draft had gems in it.

You know, Richard Sherman was in that draft. I think he was a fifth round pick.

You know, you got guys like that in that draft that have contributed to like the sport. What I like to,

when I think about Hall of Fame players, the one rule that I like to go by

that

makes a guy a Hall of Fame player or not is

2,000 years from now, 4,000, 5,000 years from now,

say if you have like somebody looking up

what humans did, right?

How we're going to be gone? Our species will be erased. I mean, just think if we moved on to something else.
Okay. Okay.

Different part of the universe. So they're looking at like humans.
What do they do? Like, oh, they play football, basketball, and you look up like football and the history of football, like

the history of the NFL. Like, can you tell the story of the NFL? with or without that player.

Like if you can't tell the story of the NFL without seeing that player, then I feel like he's a Hall of Fame player.

If you can tell that story to, you know, 5,000 years from now, if you going through the history of

the National Football League and you can tell that story without that player, I feel like he's not a Hall of Fame player. And, you know, some players fit in there.
It could be like one play.

Like,

you know, you say for instance, like

Odell Beckham, like that catch, like

that catch,

whenever people

up the history of the NFL, that catch will always be involved in telling the story of the NFL. So it's little things like that that make it interesting for me, but

that's the rule that I like to

tell myself. Can you tell the history of the game with or without that player? That's a good measure.

Rod Woodson told me forever ago that you have to have been, at least for one season, the best or at worst, the second best player at your position,

which is not as grand as the way you put it 4,000, 5,000 years from now, after the humans have departed the planet Earth. Either way,

an interesting measure there.

So

one more question about Cam Newton, because he's been outspoken about a guy in your division, your current division, Jalen Hurts. You have to win one game, Jalen Hurts or Cam Newton.

Who does Von Miller take? So when I think about Super Bowl 50, right, you know, we played to that level.

Cam Newton got that out of us. Like, if Cam Newton wasn't Cam Newton, we would not have played that great.
Like, we understood that we had to be at our very best to have success that day.

Like, Cam Newton at his prime, like,

you can't tell the story of the NFL without like Cam Newton. Like, he was...
He was a special player. Like, he brought it out of you.
Like, played Cam Newton three times, and he brought it out.

He brought it out of me. Like, I knew I was going against a great player.
I knew I was going against one of the best players in the game. And he's bigger than you, too.

That'd have to be the weirdest thing for you. Is the quarterback bigger than I am? He's big.
He's fast. He's strong.
Like, you know, I knew that we had to be

on point to have success. So I would go with Cam Newton.
Like, he was a special player. So now, akami, make a choice for me.
Who's going to win the division, the Eagles or the Cowboys?

The Eagles are kind of slumpy right now, but the Eagles have done that in the past. They have been up and down and made it to the Super Bowl, been up and down and won the Super Bowl.
So,

you know, Coach Seriani,

he does an incredible job. Jalen Hurts is

an exceptional player. They got exceptional weapons all over the place, offensive line, defensive line, wide receivers, cornerbacks, safeties, linebackers, exceptional coaches.

I would have to

think that the Eagles will get it together and somehow get through the division. I'm inclined to agree with you because the Cowboys obviously have some more work to do.

I do wonder, though, where you come down given

the high-end performance you've delivered

as a pass rusher. And by the way, on your new show, Free Range,

I do like when you have the powwows with other great pass rushers. That's fun stuff to check out from a distance.

But do you think ultimately that Jerry Jones made the right decision to trade away Micah Parsons? Yeah, I think he did. And

I think that just, I think it was a win-win for one. It was a win-win.
Micah got what he deserved, and Jerry Jones got...

Defensive tackle that needed defensive tackle help. They've been doing that for years, that they needed big-time defensive tackle tackle help, and he got draft picks.
So

I think that decision was kind of already made. They just kind of like drug it out.

I think whenever you have the highest paid quarterback in the NFL and the second highest paid wide receiver in the NFL, it kind of, those decisions kind of make themselves. If it were me, I...

I just simply don't believe in having the best quarterback, the highest paid quarterback, and the highest paid wide receiver. Like,

you know, they don't, that, I would rather, in my, the GM Vaughan sense, I would rather

trade the wide receiver and get two wide receivers. Say if that's a $30 million wide receiver, I'd rather just get two $15 million wide receivers and have the highest paid $60 million quarterback.

Like, that makes more sense, you know, to me.

If that Hubie is worth that loot, not just because he's reached that spot in his, it's his sixth year, so you have to pay him out because we used a first-round pick on him and that logic.

Is he actually the genuine article and worth that kind of bank? Yeah, exactly.

If he's worth that, then I don't need to have the second highest,

the highest paid wide receiver, you know? So

I would always, you know, bet on defensive guys. You know, Micah and guys of that caliber can really create their own magic.
They don't have anybody throwing them the ball.

We saw last year when Dak was injured, like everything just went downhill. Like,

you know, you don't have a wide receiver is dependent on like somebody throwing them the ball. Like

if you have a big-time defensive player or offensive line, anything like that, offensive line,

cornerback, you know, those type of players, they are not dependent on like

an extra element to be successful. So, Bo Nix, do you buy, we talk about the genuine article or a guy who was just taken in the first round and so you build around him?

Is Bo Nicks capable of getting to a Super Bowl and winning it?

Yeah, the combination that you have to have, and when we think about those other Super Bowl teams, organizations, Kansas City Chiefs, Patriots,

you got to have a quarterback. You got to have the head coach.
You got to have the defense. The Denver Broncos have that right now.

And

they are

firing all cylinders, And they have a really good team. And it's special to watch from afar.
I'm so glad that I'm through with that game.

Now I can go back to being a Denver Broncos fan.

For

60 minutes last night, I had to

hate them. And I wanted to win so bad.

It's still on my back right now. I'm still sick about it.

I'm kind of glad that I'm through with it. Now I can go back to being a Denver Bronco fan where my heart will always be.

Well, so you're going to get to watch all that now as a fan and look in the rearview mirror at that and as you play out in

D.C.

What's changed over the decade and a half since you got to the league?

What are the most fundamental sort of differences, not for you as a professional, but league-wide?

There are more cameras.

There's always been cameras. On you, too.

There's a camera on you right now.

There's always been cameras, but now

there are so many cameras and they catch everything. And that's why like you see guys

getting spit on now and like

punches below the bill and like you see so much now. And honestly, all of this stuff has been going on for the history of the NFL.

But now like cameras just they have a camera for just about every player on the football field. Like everything is seen that is

that has changed that is different um i think uh just the overall exposure it gets bigger more reach every single year and just the players like they just get bigger faster stronger like every year like you thought uh six foot corner was big back in my day now they're six four now you got patrick sertan jc horn uh singley um you thought like

you know defensive tackles were fast and athletic, like with J.J. Watt.
Now you got Jalen Carter and you had guys like that. And you thought defensive ends were crazy like Michael Strahan,

you know, Elvis Doomerville, like Dwight Freeney. Now you got Aiden Hutchinson and Miles Garrett.
Like they just get bigger, stronger, faster. It's wild, and that's just a decade and a half.
I'm old.

I remember watching number 58 Jack Lambert play. If you put him on an NFL field now, he would look like the size of your average kicker.
Couple more real quick for you,

and then we'll call it a day.

Again, back to fashion. Best uniform Von Miller's gotten to wear.
You can include AM if you want to, although that would be the wrong choice.

I think

going to the Rams, like it was just, it was new and it was special. Like it was different.

I had been orange and

blue my whole entire life.

And now you're like this neon yellow yellow and this neon blue like i i thought that was so cool and then we had the cream we had the off-white like i like those people always get down on those i think they look pretty cool they call it bone like the bone colors like it was just so different like and

i had been in denver for 11 years like you know and orange and blue is cool and dope in its own right. Like to be able to wear all orange, like that was, that was super cool too.

But like you just kind of get like numb and like used to those colors after being there for 11 years. Now it's like, bro, I love the Denver Broncos colors.

Like I, like, I got orange and blue like running in my veins. Like I love the Denver Broncos.

Like seeing those uniforms, especially like the new ones, like in the new variations and doing the old school like powder blue with the with the orange, like, man, it's so cool. It's so dope.

But for me, the coolest uniforms that I've put on were, you know, all the uniforms that we wore in my, in my time with the Los Angeles Rams. Enjoy the rest of this season.

Can't wait to see what you do on the other side of that. In the meantime, keep having fun with the podcast.
Free Range is its name. It's real good stuff.
I was checking it out last night and today.

It is entertaining for a football fan, especially one who roots and has rooted for Von Miller along the way. Easy to do that.

One of the more fun guys in pro football for the last decade and a half. Thanks for the time, man.
Thanks, pal. I appreciate you having me.
There he goes. Number 24, I think, number 40? Number 40.

Let's go with that. Good luck to the Aggies.
Hope they don't catch my alma mater, the Indiana Hoosiers. It'll be a quick postseason for them if they do.
Giga.

All right. Good times await the next 15 or 20 minutes of your ears.
He's a writer for Sports Illustrated. He's the host of the Matt Verdurom show on Patreon.
Or is it Patreon?

I still haven't learned after all these years how to pronounce it. Either way, he's also the host of that football show on KC Sports Network.

He's also a strong candidate to get the Shecky Award for our favorite non-player guest this season, despite his affection for the ever-loathsome New Jersey Devils. It's our old pal Matt Verdurom.

How are you, fella?

Good. If it helps any, I also load the Devils currently.
So,

you know, if that helps, I'm happy to toss that out there. Well, listen, expectations are a mother.

You know, I have my favorite favorite hockey team had no expectations, so I'm enjoying the ride so far.

I guess that's the distinction, and I guess the world order has kind of flipped since we both started watching hockey. But all right, let's talk about pro football, shall we?

Doing great work out on the road for Sports Illustrated and otherwise, always essential stuff for a self-identifying pro football fan is the work of Erduram on Sports Illustrated and beyond.

And first question before we dig into these pivotal games, and there are some real juicy ones. So many of those big games are going to be played by ancient rivals.
You have the Bears and Packers.

I would say maybe the best 20th century NFL rival and that rivalry, and then the best 21st century rivalry is Steelers, Ravens.

You have Broncos, Raiders from the AFL, Colts and Jags, Rams and Cards, Chiefs and Texans, which is two teams that both were called Texans at one point or another.

And if you blur your eyes, the team that

replaced or moved on from Houston to go to Tennessee. They're the Oilers, who used to be division rivals of the Browns.
So in a way, that still is resonating there. What's your favorite of them?

The game I'm most excited to see is probably

Packers Bears, just because the Bears are improved and also kind of on a magic carpet ride. And then the Packers,

good luck figuring out the Packers. What week is it? Right.
And I've gotten to cover some Packers games this year in person, and they've been on the opposite ends of the spectrum in both those games.

I saw him crush Washington. I saw him score seven points against Philadelphia.

That game probably intrigues me the most. Colts Jags is interesting, too, from the standpoint of, look, like the Colts are in free fall if they lose that game.
Sure.

Like, absolutely, like may not make the playoffs free fall. So that's fascinating as well.
And you have two quarterbacks in that game that, like, for different reasons are really interesting.

So I'm interested in all of them, but those two are probably like the one o'clock and then the four o'clock games that I'll be honed in on the most.

I have some questions around those games specifically as we dig into them. I'll get to those.
Very quickly, though, the other one I left off is Dolphins Jets.

Does that count, Mike Fuentes, as one of our Miami representatives in Football America? Are the Jets as good as it gets for the Dolphins in terms of a rivalry?

Well, I mean, this is dating back. It's mostly because of the New Yorkers that have moved down here.

But I'm sure there was a moment in time way before Mike Fuentes' time where this was actually a game that mattered.

But basically, you've been, you know, one,

you know,

it's just been bad. It's not really worth mentioning.

Well, I, when I think about rivalries and what makes them work through the decades is when they happen to both be playing for something important at the same time.

Otherwise, if it's one team always kicking the crap out of the other for a generation, it doesn't have much juice to it.

And to Verdurom's point, I think this Bears-Packers one feels real good because it feels like it hasn't been relevant very much this century.

But in fact, I mean, I think about the Jay Cutler game getting replaced in the title game.

And were it not for the BJ Raji pick, we might be talking about Aaron Rodgers never having gotten to a Super Bowl. Sure.
Well, yeah, to your point, though, right?

Like the Packers were a dynasty in the 60s. The Bears were good in the early 60s, but then were awful.
They both were terrible in the 70s. The Bears were good in the 80s.

And Time's great. The Packers were terrible.
And then it flipped. Since then, the Packers have been really good.
The Bears have had like pockets of being good, but by and large haven't been that good.

I also think this is a real interesting measuring stick game. Like the Bears have won all these games up into the Philly game, to their credit.
Philly game matters.

But all these games against like the Bengals and the Giants and all these games where they're barely winning, like beating J.J. McCarthy.
And it's like, okay, yeah, you're winning.

But as Ben Johnson himself said this week, it's kind of in spite of your quarterback. It's kind of in spite of your passing game.
Like he's not playing well if you watch these games.

And the Philly game, they win. And fair or not, I still think there are some people who go, yeah, sure, but Philadelphia is like the entire city is apparently ready to fire the offensive coordinator.

Like, I don't know what that means.

This is a huge game in the sense of, look, the Bears win this game. They're probably going to win the division.
Like,

they are in the driver's seat. Or is it the Packers win this game? I think you'd certainly say then they're in the driver's seat to win the division.

Yeah, they've got to go back in a couple of weeks and play at Chicago. But

you look at the Packers and say, okay, well, they'll have swept Detroit and they'll be

having the early win on Chicago. They still play Minnesota.

If you're the Packers, this is an opportunity. You've been the seven seed the last two years.
Can you win this game? You could be the one seed. You could at minimum probably the two seed, right? Like

enormous opportunity for both these teams.

And, you know, I talked about it at the start of this week, and I'm a broken record about it all season long, but the number one seed is not everything, but it's pretty close to everything.

If you buy the notion that these games, that the difference between all the teams in the playoffs at this point

are negligible, then playing one less game should mean everything.

Of course,

I think people get sideways, teams even, players get sideways about that reality. Like, let's just get into the tournament, but on the other side of it awaits

the grim fact that if you're playing three games, you're way less likely to wind up playing in the Super Bowl. No question.
And if you're the Packers, right?

Like, I always think too, it depends on who you are. Like, if you're the Packers,

if you get the Rams at Lambeau, that's a hell of a lot different than playing them in SoFi, right? Like, if that game's in two-degree weather, that matters.

And the same is true for the Bears, to their credit. Like, if they were to somehow get the one seed, like, that matters.
It matters where that game is played a lot. You know, now, look,

if you're the Houston Texans, maybe it doesn't matter as much based on the fact, like, anybody coming coming in there, okay, fine, it's in a dome. Although, again, the reverse is true.

If you're Houston, you'd

rather play that game at home in a dome than you would go in a Buffalo, right? So, like, I do think it matters a lot. You know, homefield maybe isn't quite as pronounced as it used to be

for a variety of reasons. But, yeah, a team like the Packers, playing at home is a massive deal.
That is a massive, massive deal if you can do it.

Don't get me upset, Verdurom. You're up there in Chicagoland.

I used to be up there I was in Pittsburgh and the the the seeding on purpose of the advantage of that that the football gods gave you forever or as long as you wanted to keep it was to not dome your stadium and how even the Vikings didn't learn the lesson after all those games in the 70s against the pretty boys from L.A.

coming up to play in the old Met. And they would always win the Vikings.
Somehow they processed all that like, yeah, but let's put a dome on this.

It'll be comfier for our fans when I don't even think a lot of fans even want that. I think fans like that shared experience of it's zero degrees for us in the stands and the guys down on the field.

Yeah, I agree. I think domes are the scourge of the earth.
I, I, uh, the fact that the Browns are going to put a dome on their stadium is just so important. That's the worst.

No, it doesn't matter because they don't play in the playoffs anyway. Um, you know, they're the Browns.
It's irrelevant. They might as well put a dome on it and not let anybody in.

That is actually how they probably get public money approval is if they told everybody, listen, we'll build the stadium. We're not going to allow you in to watch this.

But yeah, I agree. Like, I think some of these teams, like, I think the Bills did a good job in a sense, like, they left it open air, right? It's going to cover the fans, but it's open air.

But yeah, some of these teams, like Minnesota, Detroit, building a dome, strategy. When you watch a snow football game, it's the greatest thing you've ever seen in your life.

Like, let's get rid of that.

Can't have that anymore. You know what? I'm getting upset, even though it's frigid where you are.
It's nice and warm outside here in L.A., by the way. But okay, let's get into it.

And we'll start at number six with the NFL countdown, the most consequential games, who's going to win them and by how much. And we'll start with, we'll do a six-pack this week.

You mentioned the Eagles against the Chargers. Chargers, plus three in this one, 40 and a half at the time of this recording.
How do you see this one playing out? This game to me is

the hardest game to pick of the week because

I like Philadelphia, but I like them because Herbert is one hand right now and the tackles are so bad for the, in fact, really the whole offensive line is so bad for the Chargers, but they have the backup offensive tackles, obviously.

I just wonder in this game, if this is a big Fanjo game, where Fanjo just basically schemes up, hey, look, we can take you away. You know, we can take away what we need to take away in this game.

We can put Dejine on McConkey, and we can create some pressure against this line. They've lost two in a row.

It kind of feels like if there's ever a back-to-the-wall type of game here for Philadelphia, this game's it.

Look, we don't know what's going to happen. Obviously, we're recording on a Thursday morning.

Like the Lions, if they lose to Dallas and Philadelphia loses, you're tied in the loss column with four games left. Like it is, it is imperative if you feel you win.

The other thing with this game is you do wonder with the Chargers, like with Herbert, I know it's his left hand.

It's going to be a lot harder to get him under center. It's going to be a lot harder to run certain plays, right? He's going to have to hand off everything with his right hand.

Like, you know, what about ball security? What if he takes a sack, which with that offensive line, you'd expect he's going to take a few of them. Can he hold on to the ball as well?

Like a fumble here or a bot snap, that, that could be the game. So I like Philadelphia a little healthier.

And I just think a better team. But, you know, look, it's going to be a game played out of desperation because the Chargers have to win too.
I mean, the Chargers.

Their schedule the rest of the year is brutal. It's one of the hardest schedules in football.
No easy games. So it's a big one for both sides.

Plus, we all know this is going to be a home game for Philly. And I do feel, I mean, because, as you know, I'm one of society's great empaths.

My heart goes out to Jim Harabaugh because the entire premise was

aligned to pay off right now in his second season. And you lose both of your tackles.
Obviously, it's going to diminish how far you can carry things.

I think the Eagles are the better team given the personnel they're going to have available, although they're missing a significant tackle themselves.

I'll take the Eagles by at least four in this this one. At number five, it's the Colts.
It's the Jags. The Jags are plus one and a half, 48 and a half at the time of this recording.

Verdurom, how say you?

So

I like Jacksonville because Indianapolis, it feels like we're kind of hitting an inflection point with the Colts right now. Jones is literally playing on a broken leg.

And I know Jack Youngblood did it way back when.

Daniel Jones is not Jack Youngblood. And I've watched every snap of the Colts over the last four, five, six weeks.

Jones right now, he cannot move. I mean, he physically, understandably, cannot move.
So that's a big problem. Jacksonville has some edge rushers that matter.

I would expect them to employ them in this game and deploy them in this game.

Sauce Gardner being out, you just traded two first-round picks for this guy, so you could do all kinds of things on defense. Now you can't without him out there.

Now you can attack their side of the field. It makes Ward less valuable.
It makes Kenny Moore less valuable because you can just go at that side. You can cut the field in half and just go that way.

And Buckner being out is another huge deal. Since Buckner's been out, they've not been the same team defensively.
And so you combine all those things.

Look, the fear you have in this game if you're picking Jacksonville is Trefin Lawrence. He's been awful this season.

And you just wonder, like, is he going to have one of those games like you had against the Cardinals where it's four turnovers? He's just a disaster.

But if I'm Liam Cohen, my entire game plan is listen, we're going to run the ball to ETN. We're going to go short short with Jacoby Myers.

We're going to move the ball. Bretton Strange.

By the way, also, Jacksonville hasn't lost at home to this team since 2014.

I like Jacksonville in a tight game. I actually think Jacksonville is going to win the division.

I don't think Jacksonville is even the best team in the division, but I think they're going to win it based on the schedule. I was on the Colts in August.

I picked them to win the division, but two weeks ago, looking through the remaining schedules, it was easy to divine that the Jags, who are not as good as the Texans, clearly, are going to win the division.

Look at what they have left, especially if they handle the Colts here. They have a pretty free ride to the division title.
Next up, Steelers. I have to point this one out.

It's the 21st century rivalry of note, I think we can all agree, and not just for Steelers and Ravens fans.

But before we get into it, just a quick reminder, in case you're on the fence about this rivalry and which way you should lean spiritually.

Let me just tell you who these two teams are.

The Steelers, you understand, are named after the mid-century heroes who forged the steel, that built the tanks and the ships used to defeat the Nazi Scourge.

Now, on the other side of things, the Ravens are named after a poem written by a Boston native who married his 13-year-old cousin, moved to Baltimore, got drunk, and died.

So go ahead and root for the Ravens if you want. It's a free country.
Just know you're aligning yourself with Mussolini. Have a great time.
Stand against freedom.

Matt Verdrom, how say you in this one? You know what? Let me just tell you what's going down here.

The Ravens are giving six at the time of this recording, 42 and a half. I'll just say it.
I got the Ravens

30 to 22, but how say you?

I actually think the Ravens will not cover, but I think they're going to win.

I got to tell you, and I hate to say this because I know how diehard of a Steelers fan you are. They are a brutal watch offensively.
They are just...

I don't know how you watch Rodgers every week and not not want to just turn the TV off by like the national anthem. It's just

his intended area yards per attempt is tied for the lowest in football with Dylan Gabriel. He just doesn't throw the football.

No, no, no, don't. You don't have to tell me what I already know.
I'm sick about this. Well, you know what?

Because

I told you 18 months ago how this was going to go and it's gone every beat the way I said it was going to go. Yeah, he's terrible.
He's not good.

Like, look, the worst part of the Aaron Rodgers experience, if you're a Steelers fan, I have to imagine, although although you, of course, would know this, and I'm just guessing, is

he will miss a guy by 10 yards and then just start screaming and pouting. It's like, at what point does some receiver just say, you know what, man,

why don't you come over here and let's have this out right on the sideline? Like, he'll show up every teammate he has and then play like abject crap and then go off in a press conference.

And you're like, you're terrible. You're not good.
You haven't been good in three years. Like, what right do you have to complain about anything?

Look, I think the Ravens are struggling as well lamar is clearly not 100 he can't run he can't run i know this is off the beaten path i can't believe they gave mark andrews three years i cannot believe they extended him for a three-year contract mark andrews has like 300 yards receiving right now like it's unbelievable it felt like he was winding it down winding it down It feel like he was laying down.

Like he's 30 years old. He can't play anymore.
And they were like, yeah, here's 36 million or whatever it was.

Look, I think they'll win, but I got to tell you, I don't believe in the Ravens either. The Ravens, to me, are just kind of treading water.

Zay Flowers is the only weapon they have in the passing game.

I think they win because I just don't think Pittsburgh can score, but I'll take Baltimore at a, you know, like 24 to 20, something like that. All right, moving on.
At number three,

you mentioned we're talking about the AFC North. I think the Ravens are still going to get it, but the Bengals are right there all of a sudden.

I think they need a split between the Ravens and Steelers to have a real shot here. They're in Buffalo in the meantime.

The Bills are giving 5.5. 53.5 is the total.
It looks like T. Higgins is tracking the play.

As much as that playoff game between these two teams in Buffalo, what was it, three years ago in the snow looms, now all that, I think James Cook continues his role.

So I'm going to take the Bills by a touchdown, 34-27. How say you? I think the Bills win.
The Bengals cover. Look, I like, I agree with you.

Like, I've got my Friday preview file coming out for SI where I previewed like the five best games, obviously, games we're going over right now.

And my matchup to watch in that game was Cook against their front seven because the Bengals just can't stop anybody. I mean, that to me

is the problem that I just can't get past at Cincinnati. They can't stop anyone from running the football.

And James Cook is having the best year of anybody, not named Jonathan Taylor, running the football. And also, oh, by the way, Josh Allen is pretty good with his legs.

The The path for Cincinnati in this game, not kidding, no snark, is anything to score 45 points. Like, that's the path.

Burrows just goes absolutely berserk against the Bills who can't stop anybody.

And it just becomes one of these games where the Bengals get, you know, two stops or something, and they win 45 to 42 or some crazy game like that.

The thing that does worry me a little with Buffalo is Allen turns the ball over a lot all of a sudden.

Like, we've kind of gone back to Josh Allen from a couple of years ago, where it's like every game he gives away one or two balls.

But

I think because of the Thursday night, Thanksgiving night game, we're kind of overlooking the flaws that the Bengals have. The Bengals had five turnovers given to them in that game.

That's not going to typically happen.

Burrow's awesome. That offense is really, really good.
But, dude, that defense is one of the worst defenses I've ever seen.

And I just going into Buffalo feels like a game where Burrow could throw for 350 and three touchdowns and they still lose, like somewhat going away. So I'll take the Bills to win.

You know, it's funny, just to give you a quick compliment

retroactively from two, three years ago, I think one of the very first times we talked was you pointed out the guy who is the secret sauce of the Bengals is Lou Annarumo.

And for some reason, they canned him and he lands in Indy. And as I predicted, that was the reason I picked the Colts above all else,

was the complimentary situation available to them with Anna Rumo turning that defense borderline.

You know,

dominant is maybe a little bit too much, but the early returns were pretty good. But without sauce, I'm with you on all that.

But anyway, there the Bengals are doing weird stuff once again, showing the door to one of the brightest DCs in the league.

Okay, at number two, the Houston Texans, who maybe do have the best defense going right now against your Kansas City Chiefs, who are giving three and a half in Arrowhead, 41 and a half.

I get the specific concern at the line of scrimmage,

the deteriorated Casey O-line against that pass rush and all of that. But Casey's only lost once in Arrowhead.
I'm going to try and thread the needle here. 21-20, the Chiefs get it.

Yeah,

I got to be honest. Excuse me.
I got to be honest. I don't know what to expect in this game from the standpoint that it feels like,

well, it doesn't feel like it. The Chiefs can't get a pass rush.
I mean, they just can't do anything. They're paying Jones and Carloftis $55 million a year between them, and nobody gets home.

I mean, Jones does

occasionally. He's been better than his stats would indicate.
Carloftis has been good.

Everybody else is basically you and me trying to get a pass rush. I mean, it's just unbelievable how bad everybody else is.

They've got a blitz non-stop to try to get pressure, which as you saw against Dallas doesn't always work.

I would say that I would pick Kansas City for one reason, and that is the fact that Mahomes is the best quarterback statistically under pressure in the league.

And if there's one guy in this game who can just say, look, I don't care, like I will just, I will evade it. I will run out of it.
I will run, I'll throw while I'm horizontal. It doesn't matter.

I mean,

this is the spot where it feels like champions usually find a way to win these games.

And it feels like they like basically statistically, if they win these next two games, they'll probably make the playoffs because they have the Titans and the Raiders two of their last three games.

Um,

I always say this about New England over the years: I'm not going to bet against them.

I've just seen them win too many games like this where everybody's like, Oh, I don't think they can win this game, and that usually is when they play their best football.

I think they will win by a field goal. I think Houston covers, I think they'll win like 20 to 17, 23 to 20.

And we all walk away going, Well, thank God for them they have Mahomes because he's the reason they won the game. Well, that's a so we so we agree almost exactly.

This one's going under the Chiefs win it and uh don't cover. At number one, it's where we started.
It's the Bears. It's the Packers.
It's a glorious rivalry with big stakes this time around.

The Packers laying 6.5, 44.5 is the total. Verderom, choose.

I like the Packers to win in a cover. I don't think it's a blowout by any means.
I think it's a good touchdown.

You know, 27,

21, 27, 20, something like that.

Look, I think the Packers are just a better team. The concern that I have, like I said, I wrote wrote about this game in the Friday preview, is

Caleb Williams, his splits when he's not under pressure and when he is, they are staggering. Like, his splits are unbelievable.
And

they have Micah Parsons on the other side of the field, and Rashawn Gary is a pretty good player, too.

I just, I think Parsons in this game, look, the Bears' strength on their offensive lines, their interior. It is not their tackles.

This is not a game. If you're the Bears, you want to struggle at tackle and be great inside.
It's just, it's a problem. It's a bad matchup.

I also wonder in a game like this, like not that the Packers have championship pedigree, but they've been in a lot of big games over the last few years. The Bears have not.

And to their credit, they won that game in Philly, but Williams was terrible. They won the game because they rushed for like 250 yards.

They're not going to rush for 250 yards against Green Bay. That's not going to happen.
And so... Look, I think the Bears give a representative effort.

I don't think it's a blowout, but I think love makes enough plays. I love the way he played against the Lions on Thanksgiving.
I thought he made some big-time throws when they needed him.

I just think the Packers are a little too much for the Bears. So I'll take the pack by a touchdown.
I'm with you. And Ben Johnson is a miracle worker, as we foretold before the season kicked off.

The Lions would go down.

The Bears would ascend. The one thing I don't know that he's ever going to be able to fix is Caleb Williams is just inaccurate.
He's too deep into playing football

to suddenly turn into a sharpshooter. Anyway, listen, sharpshooter name Verderom.
Make sure you're checking out his game picks, all his other work on Sports Illustrated.

Again, the Matt Verdurom show and that football show on KC Sports Network. Keep up the great work.
I know how busy you are. We appreciate the time, Pally.

All right, there he goes. And here we go too.
Quickly, though, a note to make for you.

If you're interested in our championship Saturday picks, we made them with our old pal, Ryan Shazier, his Buckeyes versus My Hoosiers, one of the big games there.

It's available exclusively on YouTube, Football America. Check it out, won't you? We really appreciate it.
Spread the good word.

We'll be back on the other side of the football weekend to try and make sense of it for you. Until then, for all the fellas here on Football America, thanks so much, my fellow Football Americans.

It's been a thin slice of heaven.